I suppose one irony which could be drawn from the Sheffield Hallam poll is the fact it was a Conservative seat until the Lib Dems captured it in 1997. The idea of Tories voting tactically to keep the seat Lib Dem won't be lost on anyone.
Nick's survival is a prerequisite for Coalition 2.0 but it's by no means a done deal even if the numbers are there in the Commons (which is far from certain in my view). I said last night I feared for a potential schism in the LDs if Nick tried to bounce the Party into a second Coalition which would be as disastrous as David Steel's attempt to bounce the SDP and Liberals into merger in the aftermath of the disappointing 1987 outcome.
Nick may think he can sell the idea of Coalition 2.0 with a couple of speeches but it's going to take a lot more than that and it may be that IF the party rejects the idea of a second Coalition, that will be the end for Nick Clegg as Party Leader. Whether that's the end of him as a Lib Dem as well is of course another question.
How about a breakaway Liberal Party ? Or, the Orange Party .
Scott,no wonder some supporters of the Union are shy to say what they believe. Nationalism can get violent and ugly . Some of them hardly have a civic nationalism ethic.
York , I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you are just ignorant of Scotland and not stupid. Sean Clerkin is not a Nationalist , he is an extreme socialist and does the same to SNP and any other politicians he can find. Idiots speaking from afar about things they do not know , from pictures posted by Tory stooges is not very bright.
The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.
They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.
BBC reporting that Jim Murphy is campaigning in Glasgow with comedian Eddie Izzard..!
Hmmm. - Not the luckiest talisman I’d have thought.
getting a real barracking as well , and whinging that it must be the SNP, what a plank.
As I'm following various BT hacks and supporters my Twitter went into a BT Project Fear Meltdown when Jim and Eddie were shouted at by 4 protestors. Having tracked down the footage as far as I can tell the main pushing and shoving was being done by SLAB activists, who were manhandling some chap with a loudhailer:
All I can say is before Twittering condemnation of violence on the streets of Glasgow best to view the evidence first, I guess the BT/MSM mantra of why let the facts get in the way of a story is alive and well.
These guys have obviously never been on a night out in Glasgow or better still attended an Orange Lodge march, then they could form a better view of what constitutes violence on the streets of Glasgow.
Why is it only the Nats who insist on crow-barring the Scottish vernacular into written English at every opportunity? (I bet the author went to a good school and university.) It really is a bit patronizing and naff. I've spent decades corresponding with highly educated and intelligent Scots, and none would ever dream of doing it. Is it a confidence thing?
Anent that 'no': you really do seem to be in a hurry to find fault with the Caledonians.
It's actually a typo for 'not' (cut off at the side of the image). Plus he forgot the apostrophe in monkey's.
if it really were Scots, then 'Fowk who dinna gie a puggie's' would be one possible Scots interpretation (precise assonance and transliteration determined by precise location in the Lowlands).
As for my own use of 'Anent'- it's a good word - better than 'Re' and shorter than 'Concerning'. The Kirk use it and that's good enough for me.
Carnyx, Dawning is a whinging Toss** of the first order, thicker than mince and nasty with it.
Lovin the way some posters below seem certain whats gonna happen. As if.
Just wonder if Hallamite tories will say their tactically voting for Clegg to pollsters but in the secrecy of the box not do so. Well wouldn't you if you were a tory? Still squeaky bum time for Cleggy but he'll prob do it.
Nails the Tory-LD second term.
Don't quite think it nails the Tory-LD second term. While the Conservatives should get the most seats and may end up far ahead of Labour, I doubt that the depleted numbers of Liberal Democrats will bring a coalition over the line. That would bring the Ulster Unionists and possibly UKIP into play who have said they'd prefer "confidence and supply." I suspect the same would ultimately hold true for the Liberal Democrats in such a constellation.
Just had yet another VI survey from Yougov. Almost lost count of the number I've had from them during the short campaign. So much so I do wonder if I'm going to mess up the Nowcast for my constituency.
Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.
What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").
Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.
I have done 3 too.
Isnip The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?
I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?
You have no more idea than I do whether the phone or online polls are more accurate - I am 100% certain that if the online polls had the biggest lead for the Tories you would be rubbishing the phone polls.
I have a very clear idea as to which are inherently likely to be more accurate, based on wholly objective criteria which I have explained to you in what I think are sufficiently clear terms. If you think I might be wrong I'd love to have a conversation about it. At the moment all I'm hearing from you is "I am clueless and rattled".
OK, if you are serious, go onto UKPR and read AW's article ("Phone Polls v Online Polls") on the subject on April 14th.
I've already read it, it is actually a summary of a piece by Adam Ludlow at ComRes, and so what? Nothing there affects my point.
Scott,no wonder some supporters of the Union are shy to say what they believe. Nationalism can get violent and ugly . Some of them hardly have a civic nationalism ethic.
I'm not actually certain Clerkin supports Independence, he definitely doesn't support the SNP.
His main focus is being anti-SLAB who he blames for most of the housing problems in Glasgow (which is how he started - as a housing protestor). During the last Labour/Liberal coalition 2003-2007, 6 social houses were built in the whole of scotland.
I suppose one irony which could be drawn from the Sheffield Hallam poll is the fact it was a Conservative seat until the Lib Dems captured it in 1997. The idea of Tories voting tactically to keep the seat Lib Dem won't be lost on anyone.
Nick's survival is a prerequisite for Coalition 2.0 but it's by no means a done deal even if the numbers are there in the Commons (which is far from certain in my view). I said last night I feared for a potential schism in the LDs if Nick tried to bounce the Party into a second Coalition which would be as disastrous as David Steel's attempt to bounce the SDP and Liberals into merger in the aftermath of the disappointing 1987 outcome.
Nick may think he can sell the idea of Coalition 2.0 with a couple of speeches but it's going to take a lot more than that and it may be that IF the party rejects the idea of a second Coalition, that will be the end for Nick Clegg as Party Leader. Whether that's the end of him as a Lib Dem as well is of course another question.
How about a breakaway Liberal Party ? Or, the Orange Party .
The most important aspect of this ICM poll is that the candidates were specifically named. That is different to the Ashcroft polls and it produces a different result. If that plays out in the same way in other constituencies it could be very good news for both Tory and LibDem MPs in marginal seats; and possibly some SLab MPs, though that I doubt.
Agree. It could make a difference in individual seats.
One interesting thing about Sheffield Hallam is that there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper - Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If the result of the poll changes substantially only if you prompt for the name "Nick Clegg," it makes you wonder how many will place their cross next to "Steve Clegg." I, for one, am willing to punt that Steve Clegg's results will exceed expectations.
I remember seeing a double ward election some years ago where some voters had put one for the LDs and one for the EDs.
JonCisBack - you are in denial. There no leading economists in any leading uni. from Harvard to Oxford, from LSE to Warwick, fom NY to Cambridge who blame Labour for any big errors circa the global financial crisis. UK growth was great under New Labour as was employment figures. The global crisis struck and Gordon was not running US, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Austria or Holland - allof whom had banks that collapsed. Yes the RBS was one of the biggest in the world and we had to save it - but after that are economy began to get better as we followed the stimulus which Gordon, Obama and Merkel wanted.
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They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.