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eek

first. Unlike any party in this election

DavidBrackenbury

Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

foxinsoxuk

YouGoved again today.

Had to do a few which celebrity would you like to see on TV along the way.

kle4

Much obliged.

Was out walking after watching The Avengers again, and saw my first political poster in someone's window of the campaign. It was a Labour poster, which, clearly, in mu very safe Tory seat, is surely an indication of an outright Labour win. Or of nothing. One of the two.

DavidBrackenbury

Lots of UKIP posters up in Corby.

AndyJS

DavidBrackenbury said:

Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

Ishmael_X

foxinsoxuk said:

YouGoved again today.

Had to do a few which celebrity would you like to see on TV along the way.

What a tiny pond YouGov are fishing in.

I am absolutely struggling to think what, other than the innate decency and sense of fair play of the average politician, would prevent a political party from trying to stack the online panels.
It wouldn't even be illegal as far as I can see.

Scrapheap_as_was

For the first time I'm getting pre-match nerves.

I'd prefer Sam and Cam to be in Tory/Lab marginals not really in Lib D ones for example.

Sandpit

FPT

dr_spyn said:

Berger trying to avoid the question, pretending that she can't hear or see what Anderew Neil said re that segregated audience.

Good to see this story keep running - Telegraph and Spectator also have it this morning. For some reason Labour candidates seen really unwilling to talk about it to a national audience.

Sunil_Prasannan

Can we do a thread on this? Can we?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594829632681222144
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594825574788509696
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594824019473477632

Yorkcity

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

surbiton

I believe SPIN is overestimating Con by 20 and underestimating Lab about 10.

At this time in 2010, SPIN overestimated Tories by 15, underestimated Labour by 45.

Dair

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

DavidBrackenbury

AndyJS said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?

You are legally correct, but it emphasises the disparate nature of Corby town and the very rural East Northants. It will be interesting to see which part outguns the other!

surbiton

I hope all the final polls are mega size and fully weighted for England.

Sandpit

AndyJS said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?

He is referring to the constituency name - see map at http://www.corbyandeastnorthantsconservatives.org.uk/
It's quite a geographically large constituency, taking in a lot of little villages that surround the town. Was marginal Con win in 2010 but returned to Lab in a by-election - Louise Bagshawe resigned from Parliament after getting married to move to the US.
Large UKIP presence in the town is most likely taking Labour WVM votes, there's a large Polish population in the town (and famously also a large Scottish polulation).
A tight race, Labour need to win it to be in with a chance.

surbiton

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

What about your mother ?

Do you have enough weighted England only or E &W data from the last week ?

Sandpit

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?

JohnLilburne

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

Bizarrely, although it was the lead story it is not on the website (you have to go to the main election item and then scroll right down to the bottom of the page).

More bizarrely, milord Scriven's tweet is worded thus "So Cameron has taken to lying on Tory Maj." He seems to be accusing of lying about whether there will be a majority or not, not that he told Clegg that. Well... how can you lie about an event in the future that is undetermined? I could tell you Arsenal will win the Cup Final, if they lose it was hardly a lie.

On the other hand I don't know what is wrong with saying... well the polls are close and we know what happened last time, but I am going for a majority and believe one is possible. Seems simple to me.

Monksfield

Scrapheap_as_was said:

For the first time I'm getting pre-match nerves.

I'd prefer Sam and Cam to be in Tory/Lab marginals not really in Lib D ones for example.

Yes, nicking seats off LD adds nothing to the coalition.

Ishmael_X

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

BannedInParis

It's really not lying.

JohnLilburne

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

What about your mother ?

Do you have enough weighted England only or E &W data from the last week ?

I think Sunil's family are Keralan so Malayalam is more likely.

Ishmael_X

BannedInParis said:

It's really not lying.

The snow? The pledges on the EdStone? Please help us out a bit here.
Edit: oh I see you mean Cameron. Agree.

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

Well, with pandering, I guess it's the thought that counts?

Yorkcity

Sandpit said:

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?

I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.

Steven_Whaley

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

SimonStClare

BBC reporting that Jim Murphy is campaigning in Glasgow with comedian Eddie Izzard..!

Hmmm. - Not the luckiest talisman I’d have thought.

MikeSmithson

Ipsos-MORI always release their final poll in the Standard on the morning election day. Fieldwork finishes the previous evening.

AndyJS

FPT:

3plumloot said:

WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

Can't believe it was that wrong.

That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

1983: 28%, 209 seats
1987: 32%, 229 seats
1992: 35%, 271 seats

Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.

JohnLilburne

surbiton said:

I hope all the final polls are mega size and fully weighted for England.

I have been wondering why pollsters (a) still split into "England and Wales" and (b) don't routinely run a bigger sample for Scotland, and balance it. Some of the online polls have been well over 2000, it would make sense for 1000 of them to be Scottish.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.

AndyJS

The constituency name is just "Corby".

Sandpit said:

AndyJS said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?

He is referring to the constituency name - see map at http://www.corbyandeastnorthantsconservatives.org.uk/
It's quite a geographically large constituency, taking in a lot of little villages that surround the town. Was marginal Con win in 2010 but returned to Lab in a by-election - Louise Bagshawe resigned from Parliament after getting married to move to the US.
Large UKIP presence in the town is most likely taking Labour WVM votes, there's a large Polish population in the town (and famously also a large Scottish polulation).
A tight race, Labour need to win it to be in with a chance.

felix

Looking at the above it's striking that of the 11 7 give Tory leads compared to 2 for Labour. No phone poll has Labour ahead. As far as I am aware none of them try to weed out unregistered voters. there are some interesting messages there even if little changes b4 Thursday.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

Well, with pandering, I guess it's the thought that counts?

Was there a separate leaflet just for the little lady of the household?

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.

I would not be in the least bit surprised if the quartet at least acknowledged that the LDs would leak such things. They need to try anything, and Cameron and Osborne privately probably accept that if in any way they can get back into power with the LDs again.

Ishmael_X

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I rest my case, as they apparently say in US courts.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.

AndyJS

Good to see that the BBC agrees with me that Edinburgh South is second-to-last on the SNP's target list:

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/595188746556805121

foxinsoxuk

AndyJS said:

FPT:

3plumloot said:

WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

Can't believe it was that wrong.

That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

1983: 28%, 209 seats
1987: 32%, 229 seats
1992: 35%, 271 seats

Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.

I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.

foxinsoxuk

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

Yorkcity

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.

Good point.
A very late differentiation strategy of their shared time in government.

They have always needed Labour tactical voters especially in their southern seats, so why leave it so late ?

murali_s

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

The Tamil vote is crucial - could swing it for Lee sadly...

BannedInParis

Ishmael_X said:

BannedInParis said:

It's really not lying.

The snow? The pledges on the EdStone? Please help us out a bit here.
Edit: oh I see you mean Cameron. Agree.

I'm so tired of this campaign, I forgot to press Quote. Sorry.

GeoffH

Yorkcity said:

Sandpit said:

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?

I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.

This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. City, a few things to say to that.

The Lib Dems have tried differentiation for years, only to be confounded when, having spent 3+ years knocking their own government, people are unwilling to give them credit for it has done.

Also, this kind of 'betrayal' differentiation wouldn't've worked before because it would've created serious ructions in government (backbenchers would've enjoyed the excuse to kick off).

You're right about it being pretty late, though.

I do wonder, not just about elections, to what extent we just make snap decisions and then rationalise them, rather than considering evidence and then coming to a rational conclusion.

Neil

GeoffH said:

Yorkcity said:

Sandpit said:

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?

I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.

This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.

You're making a strong case for it being a particularly effective piece of Lib Dem politicking.

LadyBucket

The last two days of this GE campaign are going to seem like two weeks, it is all getting a bit scratchy. which I suspect will just put more people off voting.

It seems what story leads the news headlines these days, is unsubstantiated twitter gossip.

What a duplicitous lot the Lib Dems are, I wouldn't spit on them if they were on fire.

I'm sick to death of millionaire 'luvvies' like Delia Smith and Brand telling me how to vote.

Cyclefree

Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

MikeK

The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

Segregated audience

Daily Politics
BBC Two
Posted at 13:28
Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

FrancisUrquhart

Cyclefree said:

Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

Works for selling tat though. Some might say the manifestos of the major parties aren't much different from the crap being sold on Ideal World.

Flightpath1

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, a few things to say to that.

The Lib Dems have tried differentiation for years, only to be confounded when, having spent 3+ years knocking their own government, people are unwilling to give them credit for it has done.

Also, this kind of 'betrayal' differentiation wouldn't've worked before because it would've created serious ructions in government (backbenchers would've enjoyed the excuse to kick off).

You're right about it being pretty late, though.

I do wonder, not just about elections, to what extent we just make snap decisions and then rationalise them, rather than considering evidence and then coming to a rational conclusion.

Good last point.

Chameleon

AndyJS said:

Good to see that the BBC agrees with me that Edinburgh South is second-to-last on the SNP's target list:

twitter.com/daily_politics/status/595188746556805121

Is it sad that the thing I like the most are the graphics?

kle4

MikeK said:

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

That's a long way of just saying, yes.

edmundintokyo

Cyclefree said:

Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

You're probably right about the endorsements themselves, but if you can get the celeb to deliver a message and then get people who don't normally tune into politics to listen to that message, that's potentially quite valuable.

DecrepitJohnL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.

GeoffH

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Cyclefree, back when I regularly watched This Week there was a male actor (blonde chap, played one of the minor prices in Stardust) who advocated closer engagement with the EU and turning it to our advantage by making things more British. He appeared alongside some other chap [who lacked the important quality of fame, but had the alternative virtue of a fully functioning brain]. Andrew Neil asked Actor Man about how we could get our way when we're in a minority and there's so much QMV and that sort of thing. Actor Man immediately [literally] turned to Man With A Brain and said "Over to you."

Edited extra bit: princes*.

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.

My ELBOW's gonna get a little sore

Artist

YouGov poll people's voting intention to update their nowcast, not just for their opinion polls.

surbiton

SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

Just add your Scottish numbers separately.

Plato

Me too - actually, my 4th IIRC

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, I'm laying off exercise this week. Half of my joints are a shade troubled [not serious, but better safe than ruined].

Sunil_Prasannan

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.

My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam

Philip_Thompson

Do Tuesday night polls for Wednesday newspapers come in that list as Tuesday or Wednesday releases?

GeoffH

Neil said:

GeoffH said:

Yorkcity said:

Sandpit said:

Yorkcity said:

Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

I would have thought not.

This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?

I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.

This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.

You're making a strong case for it being a particularly effective piece of Lib Dem politicking.

Shabby was the word I used. If you think that lying about supposed 'private conversations' with a former political partner and current opponent is a particularly 'effective' piece of politicking then we really are very close to the bottom of the barrel.

surbiton

MikeK said:

The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

Segregated audience

Daily Politics
BBC Two
Posted at 13:28
Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?

OllyT

Don't people ever learn that these sort of nasty personal attacks on people simply for having the temerity to support Labour are totally counter productive. Cameron must sit with his head in his hands when he looks at what some of his "supporters" say. And yes, all parties have some nasty vindictive supporters but the polls tell us that the Tories are the ones who lose votes because of it and rightly so. I may be old-fashioned but the attempts to demean Delia Smith, for example, I find quite tasteless.

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeK said:

The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

Segregated audience

Daily Politics
BBC Two
Posted at 13:28
Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

"South Asian cultures are institutionally sexist - discuss!"

felix

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!

MikeK

Mikkil ‏@MikkiL 12m12 minutes ago
Labour Candidate Grimsby model and political hopeful jailed after £100,000 festival scam http://ln.is/co.uk/NXPKK not on @BBCnews #bias again

CD13

My view of the campaigns ...

Tories - Steady as she goes, and here's a few goodies to be going on with.
Labour - Whatever you want, we'll do, and we'll save the NHS.
LDs - We'll stop the others being such bastards.
SNP - We're in charge.
Ukip - Hello, we're still here, you know.
Greens - We're bonkers but cuddly.
Russell Brand - I'm bonkers but not cuddly.


Yawn, yawn

surbiton

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.

My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam

I am sure I have read in the past that you have said you were from Tamil Nadu.

JohnLilburne

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.

My ELBOW's gonna get a little sore

You're in a better position than JackW in that respect :-0

Smarmeron

"UKIP 'going to win Falkirk'"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32572375

I might put the house on that.... or not

MikeK

UKIP ‏@UKIP 2h2 hours ago
LISTEN: @Nigel_Farage's challenge to the Labour Party and @LiamByrneMP today: https://soundcloud.com/ukip-1/nigel-farage-challenges-labour-over-segregated-meeting …

weejonnie

Received 2 pieces of UKIP literature up here in Bishop Auckland. No others.

1st one was personal from the client - the second one was 100 reasons to vote UKIP (saying only UKIP can win here and keep Miliband and Salmond out of power) (Labour safeish seat)

OllyT

felix said:

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!

If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology

dugarbandier

all you fellows bemoaning the repeated polling of political nerds for yougov - you could do your bit to improve them by resigning from the panel

Sunil_Prasannan

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

3plumloot said:

WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

Can't believe it was that wrong.

That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

1983: 28%, 209 seats
1987: 32%, 229 seats
1992: 35%, 271 seats

Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.

I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.

Thing started to move for the LibDems after 1992.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/472020868504489984

felix

surbiton said:

MikeK said:

The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

Segregated audience

Daily Politics
BBC Two
Posted at 13:28
Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?

Christ you really are getting desperate. I believe you think Labour might not win.

JohnLilburne

surbiton said:

MikeK said:

The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

Segregated audience

Daily Politics
BBC Two
Posted at 13:28
Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?

Round Table is, I believe, a voluntary organisation for men. Had they been at a WI meeting the audience would have probably been all women.

Personally I have never understood why I would want to be a member of an organisation that excluded the other gender, but clearly some people find it appropriate.

I think the question to be asked is: was the Brum event in a mosque, or hosted by a mosque or Muslim religious organisation? If so there is a good argument for saying the Labour politicos were guests and therefore it was down to the mores of their hosts. However, if this is a Labour party event, run for, by and on behalf of the Labour party I think it's a different matter.

surbiton

AndyJS said:

FPT:

3plumloot said:

WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

Can't believe it was that wrong.

That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

1983: 28%, 209 seats
1987: 32%, 229 seats
1992: 35%, 271 seats

Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.

But SPIN numbers are not determined by Analysts. It is punters money which decides the spread. More like Tory punters !

OllyT

LadyBucket said:

The last two days of this GE campaign are going to seem like two weeks, it is all getting a bit scratchy. which I suspect will just put more people off voting.

It seems what story leads the news headlines these days, is unsubstantiated twitter gossip.

What a duplicitous lot the Lib Dems are, I wouldn't spit on them if they were on fire.

I'm sick to death of millionaire 'luvvies' like Delia Smith and Brand telling me how to vote.

Presumably it's OK for Murdoch and the Barclay Brothers to do so? At least the "luvvies" live here!

Eastwinger

surbiton said:

SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

Just add your Scottish numbers separately.

Lots of money to be made on SPIN then?

isam

Nige and I disagree on the effect of Russell's Brand supporting Ed

Hope he is right

Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY)
04/05/2015 14:31
WATCH: @Nigel_Farage on @rustyrockets 'I wouldn't want his support... I've met him.' pic.twitter.com/vpLEPQjCbS

Philip_Thompson

Wonder where all the criticism is for Cancer Research UK's women-only Race For Life event.

Where are we drawing the line on gender segregation?

Flightpath1

''The East Dumbartonshire Star; the Plymouth and Southsea Express; The Herald; The Oxford Observer.
To voters, these sound like plausible local newspapers. So when they read headlines like "Jo Swinson set to win" and "Gerald Vernon-Jackson set to win!" it has an impact.
But, of course, these are not independent newspapers. They are Liberal Democrat leaflets dressed up as papers to make them more convincing.''
(from BBC)

Thats LD campaigning for you.

AndyJS

surbiton said:

SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

Just add your Scottish numbers separately.

Proof that UNS won't operate in England & Wales can be given by considering this question:

Is the swing in places like Manchester, Sheffield, London, Liverpool, etc. going to be larger than average for England & Wales? Answer: yes. Therefore no UNS.

Sunil_Prasannan

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.

My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam

I am sure I have read in the past that you have said you were from Tamil Nadu.

Well you mis-remembered. Kerala's on the southwest coast of India, not SE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala

surbiton

Sunil_Prasannan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

3plumloot said:

WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

Can't believe it was that wrong.

That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

1983: 28%, 209 seats
1987: 32%, 229 seats
1992: 35%, 271 seats

Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.

I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.

Thing started to move for the LibDems after 1992.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/472020868504489984

Guess what? Both bars will be down by more than half.

DecrepitJohnL

MikeK said:

Mikkil ‏@MikkiL 12m12 minutes ago
Labour Candidate Grimsby model and political hopeful jailed after £100,000 festival scam http://ln.is/co.uk/NXPKK not on @BBCnews #bias again

It made the Grimsby Telegraph (your link) two days ago, since when it has been picked up by precisely no national news media, which kind of implies the collective editorial judgement of said media is that this is not, in fact, a story of any significance or interest.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Thompson, there was a story in the Mail about a week ago of a man being refused entry [by himself] to some sort of falconry place. Some, but not all, of the events were aimed at kids, and apparently that was the reason for his exclusion.

Ishmael_X

OllyT said:

felix said:

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!

If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology

Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?

I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?

JohnLilburne

Flightpath1 said:

''The East Dumbartonshire Star; the Plymouth and Southsea Express; The Herald; The Oxford Observer.
To voters, these sound like plausible local newspapers. So when they read headlines like "Jo Swinson set to win" and "Gerald Vernon-Jackson set to win!" it has an impact.
But, of course, these are not independent newspapers. They are Liberal Democrat leaflets dressed up as papers to make them more convincing.''
(from BBC)

Thats LD campaigning for you.

Not really worth making up local newspapers when they will generally print what you like as long as you provide the copy and the photo and they don't have to do any work. My local paper regularly publishes pictures of a local Lib Dem councillor peering into a pothole.

GeoffH

OllyT said:

felix said:

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!

If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology

I'm not saying that are necessarily useless. Just questioning whether by repeatedly asking the same people over a very short time frame they are optimal in value.

By contrast, phone polling will rarely question the same individuals twice in a GE period.

But then every time I'm asked that's another 50p in the pot.

Chameleon

OllyT said:

felix said:

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.

I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!

If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology

Because in the past there hasn't been much of a difference between the two types of polling. However this time one type is showing a 2.79 Con lead and the other a 0.88 Lab lead (3.67% difference). Clearly one type is wrong. Since online polls have self-selecting samples and phone ones are random samples it makes sense to go with the one which doesn't break the first rule of polling.

GIN1138

Who is BMG?

botanically_speaking

GeoffH said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Ishmael_X said:

Dair said:

Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.

I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

I have done 3 too.

I have just completed my sixth.

I can't help thinking IshmaelX rested his case too early.