politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron and the post election narrative
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Indeed - which is why, in my view, what the SNP *should* do is to support a minority Tory government that introduces a proper federal system. EVEL is a sticking plaster not a proper reconstruction. But I wrote this in a thread header about 4 years ago shortly after joined the site.malcolmg said:
Charles, No but the answer is not to be undemocratic and ban Scotland from having any say in UK , the answer is to have a proper system where UK MP's voting on supposed English matters do not adversely affect Scotland, ie a proper federal system which has impacts only for the country that votes on it.Charles said:
It may be legitimate, but is also represents an absolute conflict of interest.malcolmg said:
If those business rates affect Scotland's budget it is perfectly legitimate. As long as our pocket money is based on what Westminster votes for England then there is nothing that should stop us voting on it.
Same would apply to your Scottish examples above, you cannot have your cake and eat it. If they do not like it then they should introduce a fair system so that English votes do not affect Scotland.
Also you have had a LibDem coalition government twice , once in Holyrood and once in UK.
Let's say the SNP votes to reduce business rates in Scotland, and then votes (with Labour support) to triple business rates anywhere not in Scotland, but within 100 miles of the Scottish border.
It would be perfectly legitimate, but would it be right?
You cannot have your cake and eat it.0 -
The Guardian had a video the other day with one of their reporters following a Labour pol canvassing his Scottish constituency. The voters assured him they were going to vote Labour, then told the reporter they were going to vote SNP.RepublicanTory said:
Bunnco, Than k you for feeding back your experiences. I find it really helpful and I wish more people on here could do the same.bunnco said:Mind your 'P's and 'Qs...
Was doing some knocking-up in Great Yarmouth yesterday with some GOTV for P's & Qs.
I know that people will say that you only see what you want to see but in this seaside town, the UKIP vote in the marginal wards of Bradwell and Caister [where the election will be determined] is evaporating.
A bus-load of FBU heavies up from London was doing likewise, but in the 'Labour' heartlands.
When I canvassed these areas last Autumn [during Clacton & Rochester], UKIP were ahead. So, today, UKIP has fallen-away dramatically.
So, the most recent Ashcroft just doesn't look like what I'm seeing on the ground. Yes there is _some_ UKIP but not in the bucket-loads that's being stated. UKIP does control seats on the local Council. Last year they took 10 of the 13 places up for grabs, equally as it turns out from Labour [5] and Conservatives [5]. So there are people who GENUINELY did vote for UKIP quite recently within the last 12 months in the borough.
We know polls adjust for past-vote-weighting.
I'm just wondering in a General [as opposed to borough or EU vote] whether this is distorting the past vote weighting so that the polls are showing UKIP performing more strongly in the General than they actually are by observable calibration on the ground.
If I'm right, then polls are methodogically over-stating UKIP. My thesis is that a past-vote weighting for a Borough or EU poll should not be confused with a past-vote weighting for the General. Yet it seems that they are.
Can those who look at these things more closely than me comment? Is there a methodology point here that might explain why the UKIP vote appears to be holding up on the polls more than we're seeing on the ground?
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
I posted something similar last night about Thanet S. I am simply not seeing the Labour vote that Ashcroft is picking up. Likewise another canvasser who was out in a part of Sandwich yesterday-an area Farage will expect to do very well in. He said UKIP support was strong but Mackinlay was getting good numbers and better feedback than a month ago.
I am ever more convinced that some of the pollsters are going to be scratching their heads on Friday morning and wondering where they went wrong.
I wouldn't put too much faith in canvassing anecdotes.0 -
Tim Shipman: Labour sources fingering Torsten Bell for Moses Miliband wheeze. Press team caught "between a rock and a stone slab", I'm told........Labour source: "I feel a bit for Torsten on this one because he's been absolutely rock solid throughout the campaign."0
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I'm not a Labour man, I am an anti-Tory who votes Labour tactically as I live in a North West marginal (Chester). I don't think the stone is the greatest political stunt ever but nor is it the "Sheffield Rally" moment that the Tory posters on here would have us believe. The Tory campaign in this election seems to amount to little beyond vilifying Miliband personally and denigrating the Scots, not a great basis for 5 more years of a Cameron government.Plato said:As a Labourman -what do you think of it?
OllyT said:
The press have already gone over the top slinging abuse at Miliband so I seriously doubt this will do any damage. I reckon this about Ed's 10th "Sheffield Rally" moment to date according to the PB Tories! Ultimately the penny might drop that vicious personal attacks by the Mail & Murdoch are actually counter productive to many voters.Casino_Royale said:WTF is the deal with that stone? Is this Miliband's Sheffield rally moment?
The press should be all over this: sinking their teeth in to the simple extreme-weirdness of this, and it's smack of megalomania, and hubris.0 -
@TimGatt: Don't worry Labour! Smash this into lumps, charge political nerds like me £20 + you'll easily fund your 2020 campaign http://t.co/qxPBnrT76k0
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You're right - I think it was actually the Golden Calf that got ground up and force fed to them (they were both at the same time, hence the confusion)DavidL said:
My recollection is that they were broken but put in the ark of the covenant thingy and then kept in the temple in Jerusalem when it was built. (At least until Indiana Jones came along).Charles said:
It's been a while since I read Exodus, but didn't the Israelis reject Moses and the 10 Commandments the first time that he brought them down the mountain? IIRC, he got so frustrated he broke them in pieces* and had to go back to get some more.edmundintokyo said:
It's a great idea, they can hide the pledge about not doing deals with the SNP behind it.AndreaParma_82 said:The Labour stone is the kitschest moment of the campaign.
* I have vague memory that he ground up the broken ones into dust and force-fed them to his people, but that's just weird...0 -
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This is a stonkingly good ad - is it Saatchi? Clear, crisp, shades of 1992.CarlottaVance said:Conservative PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrqG6CbmZjw
When does it air?
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Spent much of yesterday and most of the early hours doing so, but I've done my week-by-week ELBOW for phone v. online polls!0
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Typically who would you vote for in a free vote?OllyT said:
I'm not a Labour man, I am an anti-Tory who votes Labour tactically as I live in a North West marginal (Chester). I don't think the stone is the greatest political stunt ever but nor is it the "Sheffield Rally" moment that the Tory posters on here would have us believe. The Tory campaign in this election seems to amount to little beyond vilifying Miliband personally and denigrating the Scots, not a great basis for 5 more years of a Cameron government.Plato said:As a Labourman -what do you think of it?
OllyT said:
The press have already gone over the top slinging abuse at Miliband so I seriously doubt this will do any damage. I reckon this about Ed's 10th "Sheffield Rally" moment to date according to the PB Tories! Ultimately the penny might drop that vicious personal attacks by the Mail & Murdoch are actually counter productive to many voters.Casino_Royale said:WTF is the deal with that stone? Is this Miliband's Sheffield rally moment?
The press should be all over this: sinking their teeth in to the simple extreme-weirdness of this, and it's smack of megalomania, and hubris.0 -
Due to the ever changing nature of our politics; it is probably difficult for any party leader to set out genuine policies - if coalitions and minority govts are the new name. Significant sections will never be implement.
Ed's 'values' and 'pledges' (minus the Babylonian statue) are the norm now.
A potential Prime Minister will need to campaign like a US Presidential candidate - no real policies. Just values, pledges and one big commitment. That's it.0 -
I was tempted to make a Berlin Wall joke earlier... it'd need some Banksy grafitti thoughScott_P said:
@TimGatt: Don't worry Labour! Smash this into lumps, charge political nerds like me £20 + you'll easily fund your 2020 campaign http://t.co/qxPBnrT76k
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It is just impossible to imagine what kind of idiot could have thought this up and then actually paid for itMonikerDiCanio said:
Spot on. Miliband has intellectual contempt for the British electorate as this preposterous stunt confirms.malcolmg said:
There are no pledges on that slab, just some waffly bullshit. That is the whole point he is not only stupid but thinks voters are as well that they will be taken in by the airy fairy guff carved on his Tombstone.SouthamObserver said:What a ridiculous slab!!! But a lot of people are going to see those pledges now.
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The stone slab doesn't look well secured, a gust of wind could have caused a tragedy.Plato said:0 -
The last few days of labour's campaign will be satirized by this amazing own goal. They started their campaign quite well but it seems to be descending into farce with this 'Moses' moment0
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York, I just have to bite my tongue and think it is for the futureYorkcity said:
I always knew you are a Scottish Conservative in a future Independent Scotland malg.malcolmg said:
MD, they would only support him if it was in Scotland's/UK's interests. SNP want to improve the country and at present that means the UK. If that cretin gets in then we can only hope someone ( anyone ) is there to stop him ruining the country completely.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, Blackbusters was a mistake. This is eight and a half feet of deliberation.
Mr. G, we agree Miliband would be useless, but why would the SNP then actively support the clown?
Surely it will not be long now before your dream can turn into reality.
How do you go along with all that left wing stuff from Nicola in the meantime ?0 -
Oh dear PB back to its old self.
Its kinda like a last hurrah. What you going to think when you lose PB Tories?0 -
Yes - looks like M&C Saatchi (the brothers), not Saatchi & Saatchi:Mortimer said:
This is a stonkingly good ad - is it Saatchi? Clear, crisp, shades of 1992.CarlottaVance said:Conservative PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrqG6CbmZjw
When does it air?
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1336423/0 -
@faisalislam: Jim Murphy's version of this is called the SLab slab: http://t.co/b6YoiIuIBc0
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+1Flightpath1 said:Please make sure you do not get stoned in Broxtowe with this aspiring Labour MP.
Frankly I cannot see why anyone would want to share a pint with someone who supports a party that wants to ruin Britain and has a track record of supporting it as it ruined it in the past.0 -
Perfect analogy.
Ed Balls wrote £150 cheque to glazier for doing work on his £1million home
But his bank refused to honour it, sending cheque back to the tradesman
Mr Balls sent an apology and a second cheque but that was also refused
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065618/Exposed-Ed-Balls-cheque-bouncer-wants-run-Britain-s-finances-just-six-months-ago-couldn-t-write-good-cheque-150-glazier-TWICE.html#ixzz3Z4LN172X
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
How could you embarrass yourself by voting for the fool.richardDodd said:There must be some decent solid working class Labour voters who are somewhat ashamed of what their leaders are doing in their name this morning..how do they avoid talking about it down at the pub..
He,s bought a bloody big stone...written some garbage on it...wtf..0 -
Someone must have been watching the cartoon channel and saw reruns of Fred FlintstoneDecrepitJohnL said:
So where did this idea originate? Has it been done overseas?CarlottaVance said:Ruth Davidson:
Last year there was a Better Together plan to carve stuff in rock. Some folk were gung-ho for it while the rest of us argued it would look stupid, like a tombstone & send the wrong message. The only sane Labour person against was @JohannLamont -go figure0 -
I wonder if The Stone will be taken to other speech making venues..and will any journos ask what the drivel actually means..in real terms..0
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Miss Plato, it's more of a wall between Miliband and normality.
Is "Respect white van drivers" on the tombstone?0 -
Does anyone have any bets on for todays League 1 finale? I can't help but feel MK Dons are going to win and Preston will choke out a draw.0
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Well, indeed. Pledges that can't be measured. That's pretty smart politics. Far wiser than saying things like "We'll reduce immigration to whatever number".saddened said:
You're clever man, could you tell me how they are going to measured and when and how will we know when they have been successfully achieved.SouthamObserver said:What a ridiculous slab!!! But a lot of people are going to see those pledges now.
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SO That is not smart politics.. it is treating people like fools..0
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#EdStone is trending heavily on Twitter.
The whole Labour campaign has been comical but this is the best. Are they trying to appeal to sympathy voters now?0 -
If he is a Moses he is one played by Mel Brookes and not Charlton Heston.Sandpit said:
I'm not sure he's a fan of it!kle4 said:I think the important question is, how has Dan Hodges reacted to this? Someone pass the smelling salts, I'll bet.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/594796616126697472
I could certainly come up with Miliband's 10 Commandments, but I doubt that socialists would be pleased to read them.0 -
@DarrenRJones: Ed's policy stone is ready for delivery to Downing St garden. #EdStone #GE2015 http://t.co/GZeDPwvBet0
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That would be political suicide though Charles. How long has it taken them to get the dinosaurs away from just voting Labour. The Tories are not liked in Scotland and will never be till they get a real Scottish party in place , they must take plenty of stick given they have seen what is happening and could have had a bit of foresight and saw the opportunities that were going to arise when Labour got crushed. They have failed miserably.Charles said:
Indeed - which is why, in my view, what the SNP *should* do is to support a minority Tory government that introduces a proper federal system. EVEL is a sticking plaster not a proper reconstruction. But I wrote this in a thread header about 4 years ago shortly after joined the site.malcolmg said:
Charles, No but the answer is not to be undemocratic and ban Scotland from having any say in UK , the answer is to have a proper system where UK MP's voting on supposed English matters do not adversely affect Scotland, ie a proper federal system which has impacts only for the country that votes on it.Charles said:
It may be legitimate, but is also represents an absolute conflict of interest.malcolmg said:
If those business rates affect Scotland's budget it is perfectly legitimate. As long as our pocket money is based on what Westminster votes for England then there is nothing that should stop us voting on it.
Same would apply to your Scottish examples above, you cannot have your cake and eat it. If they do not like it then they should introduce a fair system so that English votes do not affect Scotland.
Also you have had a LibDem coalition government twice , once in Holyrood and once in UK.
Let's say the SNP votes to reduce business rates in Scotland, and then votes (with Labour support) to triple business rates anywhere not in Scotland, but within 100 miles of the Scottish border.
It would be perfectly legitimate, but would it be right?
You cannot have your cake and eat it.0 -
Arf!Sandpit said:
The space is for Alex and Nicola to add their own pledges and signatures next week.MonikerDiCanio said:There's a lot of empty space on Miliband's tablet of stone. It's as though they lost heart with engraving the listed banalities when they reached six and skipped the last four.
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There are people who believe Labour has in the past and will in the future ruin Britain, but you surely cannot seriously believe they want to ruin Britain?Flightpath1 said:
Frankly I cannot see why anyone would want to share a pint with someone who supports a party that wants to ruin Britain
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Decrepit
"So where did this idea originate? Has it been done overseas?"
Thatch used to like slabs of rock to sell an idea. Here's one from the 80's when we all got rich doing COI stuff for a Tory govenment who couldn't spend enough on TV trying to get themselves re elected
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMnb536WuC00 -
Scott is going to love today.
Last chance he will get to tweet spam PB.0 -
As if I didn't already despise Nigel Farage enough... Now I really hate him.isam said:Britain will have fewer nerds under a Ukip government
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
03/05/2015 10:38
Nigel Farage: Ukip will exterminate Dr Who tgr.ph/1bQEEz2
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EdStone - A commentator on Twitter:
No 10 is Grade 1 listed. He'll need Tory Westminster planning permission for it. Good luck with that.
And another:
In Arial? Might as well do it in Comic Sans.0 -
@MrHarryCole: perfect. http://t.co/BKDSFfOCGW0
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Have to agree , both parties are very poor indeed and neither deserve to be running the country.OllyT said:
I'm not a Labour man, I am an anti-Tory who votes Labour tactically as I live in a North West marginal (Chester). I don't think the stone is the greatest political stunt ever but nor is it the "Sheffield Rally" moment that the Tory posters on here would have us believe. The Tory campaign in this election seems to amount to little beyond vilifying Miliband personally and denigrating the Scots, not a great basis for 5 more years of a Cameron government.Plato said:As a Labourman -what do you think of it?
OllyT said:
The press have already gone over the top slinging abuse at Miliband so I seriously doubt this will do any damage. I reckon this about Ed's 10th "Sheffield Rally" moment to date according to the PB Tories! Ultimately the penny might drop that vicious personal attacks by the Mail & Murdoch are actually counter productive to many voters.Casino_Royale said:WTF is the deal with that stone? Is this Miliband's Sheffield rally moment?
The press should be all over this: sinking their teeth in to the simple extreme-weirdness of this, and it's smack of megalomania, and hubris.0 -
Slick Tory PPB. Another thing that won't affect anything, but visualizing the metaphor that's been thrown around about not breaking what is being fixed makes some sense.
Back to the important stuff, the slab, another thing its done is got people talking about Ed in the context of getting into Downing Street, rather than what Cameron plans to do should he win most seats. Not sure that's worth however much a block of limestone costs, but they're not short of campaign monies apparently.0 -
This is the last weekend before the election, and as it's a holiday weekend people will have more time to read the papers. This picture will be all over them, and may be the last image busy people remember of Ed before they vote.OllyT said:
The press have already gone over the top slinging abuse at Miliband so I seriously doubt this will do any damage. I reckon this about Ed's 10th "Sheffield Rally" moment to date according to the PB Tories! Ultimately the penny might drop that vicious personal attacks by the Mail & Murdoch are actually counter productive to many voters.Casino_Royale said:WTF is the deal with that stone? Is this Miliband's Sheffield rally moment?
The press should be all over this: sinking their teeth in to the simple extreme-weirdness of this, and it's smack of megalomania, and hubris.
Anyone wavering may think 'Blimey, he really is an idiot' and decide not to vote for him.
Whoever does his PR should be shot for this.0 -
@MichaelPDeacon: Tomorrow: Ed Miliband gets Labour's pledges tattooed on his forehead, backwards, so he has to read them every time he looks in the mirror0
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Agreed Cameron was a bit thick playing into the SNP hands the day after the referendum .malcolmg said:
York, I just have to bite my tongue and think it is for the futureYorkcity said:
I always knew you are a Scottish Conservative in a future Independent Scotland malg.malcolmg said:
MD, they would only support him if it was in Scotland's/UK's interests. SNP want to improve the country and at present that means the UK. If that cretin gets in then we can only hope someone ( anyone ) is there to stop him ruining the country completely.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, Blackbusters was a mistake. This is eight and a half feet of deliberation.
Mr. G, we agree Miliband would be useless, but why would the SNP then actively support the clown?
Surely it will not be long now before your dream can turn into reality.
How do you go along with all that left wing stuff from Nicola in the meantime ?
He is no statesman that is for sure.
He sure did not read his history of Irish Independence.
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They need to stop the commitment = Lie meme first though.Daniel said:Due to the ever changing nature of our politics; it is probably difficult for any party leader to set out genuine policies - if coalitions and minority govts are the new name. Significant sections will never be implement.
Ed's 'values' and 'pledges' (minus the Babylonian statue) are the norm now.
A potential Prime Minister will need to campaign like a US Presidential candidate - no real policies. Just values, pledges and one big commitment. That's it.0 -
Initially when I read that my reaction was that it was unfair to Ed Balls to highlight it. It was on the first instance an honest mistake. But the fact that he sent a second cheque which also bounced franky makes it fair game to highlight his incompetence in ensuring that the second cheque was on a valid account in credit.Plato said:Perfect analogy.
Ed Balls wrote £150 cheque to glazier for doing work on his £1million home
But his bank refused to honour it, sending cheque back to the tradesman
Mr Balls sent an apology and a second cheque but that was also refused
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065618/Exposed-Ed-Balls-cheque-bouncer-wants-run-Britain-s-finances-just-six-months-ago-couldn-t-write-good-cheque-150-glazier-TWICE.html#ixzz3Z4LN172X
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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Scott is going at one tweet per minute. The last Hurrah before he realised he changed not one vote with his 8,000 copy and pastes.0
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Saving the lives of tens of thousands of (predominantly, at the time) gay men in the process.....but that doesn't fit the narrative, so is quietly forgotten.....Roger said:Thatch used to like slabs of rock to sell an idea. Here's one from the 80's when we all got rich doing COI stuff for a Tory govenment who couldn't spend enough on TV trying to get themselves re elected
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMnb536WuC00 -
@tomashirstecon: Labour HQ: this is a disaster, we're going to get pushed off the front page by a *baby*.
Ed: Don't worry, I got this
http://t.co/oCoR2S10tR0 -
I'll stick up for it. I don't use twitter and am too lazy to go and look, so it's helpful. Hopefully people will provide some Labour and other tweets to balance things out.IOS said:Scott is going at one tweet per minute. The last Hurrah before he realised he changed not one vote with his 8,000 copy and pastes.
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Good Morning. Sharia Law in action, by way of the Labour Party.
@MurnaghanSky this is @labour idea of sexual equality. Pink bus...my arse. @jongaunt pic.twitter.com/o82DtTr3Qm
— Julian Uzzell (@JulianUzzell) May 3, 20150 -
Correction - Scott is spamming the site at more than 1 tweet a minute.0
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@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp0
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Although, if you get it through, I thought the SNP would no longer need to exist (admittedly a properly structured federal UK isn't quite independence, but it's probably better than both full independence and the current muddle).malcolmg said:
That would be political suicide though Charles. How long has it taken them to get the dinosaurs away from just voting Labour. The Tories are not liked in Scotland and will never be till they get a real Scottish party in place , they must take plenty of stick given they have seen what is happening and could have had a bit of foresight and saw the opportunities that were going to arise when Labour got crushed. They have failed miserably.Charles said:
Indeed - which is why, in my view, what the SNP *should* do is to support a minority Tory government that introduces a proper federal system. EVEL is a sticking plaster not a proper reconstruction. But I wrote this in a thread header about 4 years ago shortly after joined the site.malcolmg said:
Charles, No but the answer is not to be undemocratic and ban Scotland from having any say in UK , the answer is to have a proper system where UK MP's voting on supposed English matters do not adversely affect Scotland, ie a proper federal system which has impacts only for the country that votes on it.Charles said:
It may be legitimate, but is also represents an absolute conflict of interest.malcolmg said:
If those business rates affect Scotland's budget it is perfectly legitimate. As long as our pocket money is based on what Westminster votes for England then there is nothing that should stop us voting on it.
Same would apply to your Scottish examples above, you cannot have your cake and eat it. If they do not like it then they should introduce a fair system so that English votes do not affect Scotland.
Also you have had a LibDem coalition government twice , once in Holyrood and once in UK.
Let's say the SNP votes to reduce business rates in Scotland, and then votes (with Labour support) to triple business rates anywhere not in Scotland, but within 100 miles of the Scottish border.
It would be perfectly legitimate, but would it be right?
You cannot have your cake and eat it.0 -
The Torygraph is really scrabbling in the mud and clinkers here!Steven_Whaley said:
As if I didn't already despise Nigel Farage enough... Now I really hate him.isam said:Britain will have fewer nerds under a Ukip government
Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
03/05/2015 10:38
Nigel Farage: Ukip will exterminate Dr Who tgr.ph/1bQEEz2
0 -
Kle
Shall I post Labour party press releases - cos that's all he's doing. The last guy even had con in his name!0 -
If Labour and the SNP have the votes, and they both vote against a Cameron Queen's Speech, Cameron has to resign and Miliband becomes PM. No deal or coalition is required. The SNP then have a choice as to whether they support a Miliband Queen's Speech that promises to increase taxes on the rich, or vote for another general election.
Miliband doesn't need to offer them anything. No broken promises. He just needs to have the strength of will to face down the right-wing press. Assuming he has enough MPs of course. He may yet life the election definitively, making all of this moot.0 -
Mr. K, that's enough Islamophobia!
The Prophet Miliband will not tolerate this sort of behaviour!*
*In case you haven't seen it, Ed Miliband now thinks he's Moses.0 -
I do not follow in the slightest. I have seen only a few comments daring to suggest this might be a Sheffield moment for Ed (with a question mark), and the vast majority just taking the piss out of something stupid with no indication that people think it will actually change anything.IOS said:Oh dear PB back to its old self.
Its kinda like a last hurrah. What you going to think when you lose PB Tories?
It is a very silly gimmick, how is it in any way unreasonable for the opponents, neutrals or even supporters to have some fun saying so?
Also, how is 'spamming' by talking about someone else posting tweets better than just posting those tweets, or indeed me posting about someone posting about someone posting tweets?0 -
Come on Scott - must copy and paste faster!Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp
You need to feed the voracious appetite of the right-wing fruitcakes (and they're out in force this morning!) who live on this blog!0 -
The stone slab doesn't look well secured, a gust of wind could have caused a tragedy.MonikerDiCanio said:
And they still have the 'control immigration' pledge - which everyone knows is totally ga-ga.
Maybe they should paint them outside the front of 10 Downing street on the walls in big letters - then when they go wrong they can have someone amend them overnight.0 -
@JakeReesMogg: I haven't managed to read Ed's tablet from God. Does one of the Commandments read "Thou shalt not be Prime Minister"?0
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Kle4
Basically there is a small section of PB that has to live vicariously through politics to escape whatever from their own lives. These posters aren't interested in debate or reasoning but rather just trying to whip up a herd mentality.
Scott is one of these. Seriously all he does is copy anyone on twitter. The last guy he pasted had less followers than me!0 -
I believe they would disappear some time after independence. Tory party in Scotland seem incapable of looking to the future, no matter how many times they languish in elections. They need some new blood that is not stuck in the past , but seem controlled by the old fogies who worship London rule.Charles said:
Although, if you get it through, I thought the SNP would no longer need to exist (admittedly a properly structured federal UK isn't quite independence, but it's probably better than both full independence and the current muddle).malcolmg said:
That would be political suicide though Charles. How long has it taken them to get the dinosaurs away from just voting Labour. The Tories are not liked in Scotland and will never be till they get a real Scottish party in place , they must take plenty of stick given they have seen what is happening and could have had a bit of foresight and saw the opportunities that were going to arise when Labour got crushed. They have failed miserably.Charles said:
Indeed - which is why, in my view, what the SNP *should* do is to support a minority Tory government that introduces a proper federal system. EVEL is a sticking plaster not a proper reconstruction. But I wrote this in a thread header about 4 years ago shortly after joined the site.malcolmg said:
Charles, No but the answer is not to be undemocratic and ban Scotland from having any say in UK , the answer is to have a proper system where UK MP's voting on supposed English matters do not adversely affect Scotland, ie a proper federal system which has impacts only for the country that votes on it.Charles said:
It may be legitimate, but is also represents an absolute conflict of interest.malcolmg said:
If those business rates affect Scotland's budget it is perfectly legitimate. As long as our pocket money is based on what Westminster votes for England then there is nothing that should stop us voting on it.
Same would apply to your Scottish examples above, you cannot have your cake and eat it. If they do not like it then they should introduce a fair system so that English votes do not affect Scotland.
Also you have had a LibDem coalition government twice , once in Holyrood and once in UK.
Let's say the SNP votes to reduce business rates in Scotland, and then votes (with Labour support) to triple business rates anywhere not in Scotland, but within 100 miles of the Scottish border.
It would be perfectly legitimate, but would it be right?
You cannot have your cake and eat it.0 -
Ed is managing to pull off the feat of looking like he is being bullied by both the Daily Mail faction, and the SNP.0
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When Cameron unveils a ridiculous gimmick we shall see the reverse, everyone deserves their fun. Unfortunately his ridiculous gimmick of a law to force himself to do something was not as visually interesting, sadly.murali_s said:
Come on Scott - must copy and paste faster!Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp
You need to feed the voracious appetite of the right-wing fruitcakes (and they're out in force this morning!) who live on this blog!0 -
Judging from the weather, we need Noah, not Moses.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. K, that's enough Islamophobia!
The Prophet Miliband will not tolerate this sort of behaviour!*
*In case you haven't seen it, Ed Miliband now thinks he's Moses.0 -
Murali
11 straight posts in 10 minutes with no content of his own.
What would the site be like if I just copied Labour MPs tweets..0 -
Kle
If its original thought on here then fine. But scott is doing that. HE is just literally spamming and copying and pasteing.
Again - would you appreciate it if I did the Labour equivalent.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. K, that's enough Islamophobia!
The Prophet Miliband will not tolerate this sort of behaviour!*
*In case you haven't seen it, Ed Miliband now thinks he's Moses.0 -
You can if you want and I certainly wouldn't mind- I won't see them any other way. The only way I see PPBs and the like is if they are on here, LabourList, Guido, LDV, ConHome etc, and the same with party lines.IOS said:Kle
Shall I post Labour party press releases - cos that's all he's doing. The last guy even had con in his name!0 -
He said "keep our future bright" to which the response must be "keep our future [with] Orange"Mortimer said:
This is a stonkingly good ad - is it Saatchi? Clear, crisp, shades of 1992.CarlottaVance said:Conservative PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrqG6CbmZjw
When does it air?
Great dog whistle for Coalition 2.0 there0 -
IOSIOS said:Kle4
Basically there is a small section of PB that has to live vicariously through politics to escape whatever from their own lives. These posters aren't interested in debate or reasoning but rather just trying to whip up a herd mentality.
Scott is one of these. Seriously all he does is copy anyone on twitter. The last guy he pasted had less followers than me!
We should be grateful that at least one Slab will still be around after Thursday.0 -
Yes. I prefer original thought too, but I would welcome seeing the official line if people want to share it. If every person posting was doing that, or for the Tories, then it would be an issue, but not one or two.IOS said:
Again - would you appreciate it if I did the Labour equivalent.0 -
And how many of yours are adding something bar carping? Moaning about other posters is very dull. If you don't like his posts - don't read them.IOS said:
Murali
11 straight posts in 10 minutes with no content of his own.
What would the site be like if I just copied Labour MPs tweets..0 -
Yep but this clutters up the site. This is after all a political betting discussion blog.kle4 said:
When Cameron unveils a ridiculous gimmick we shall see the reverse, everyone deserves their fun. Unfortunately his ridiculous gimmick of a law to force himself to do something was not as visually interesting, sadly.murali_s said:
Come on Scott - must copy and paste faster!Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp
You need to feed the voracious appetite of the right-wing fruitcakes (and they're out in force this morning!) who live on this blog!
Back to what this site is about - betting. Labour most seats - it's incredible value.
7/2 with Ladbrokes (was 4/1 yesterday).0 -
Great post Bunnco and really good to see you back after such an extended absence. Hope to see you contributing here regularly over the closing stages of the GE campaign.bunnco said:Mind your 'P's and 'Qs...
Was doing some knocking-up in Great Yarmouth yesterday with some GOTV for P's & Qs.
I know that people will say that you only see what you want to see but in this seaside town, the UKIP vote in the marginal wards of Bradwell and Caister [where the election will be determined] is evaporating.
A bus-load of FBU heavies up from London was doing likewise, but in the 'Labour' heartlands.
When I canvassed these areas last Autumn [during Clacton & Rochester], UKIP were ahead. So, today, UKIP has fallen-away dramatically.
So, the most recent Ashcroft just doesn't look like what I'm seeing on the ground. Yes there is _some_ UKIP but not in the bucket-loads that's being stated. UKIP does control seats on the local Council. Last year they took 10 of the 13 places up for grabs, equally as it turns out from Labour [5] and Conservatives [5]. So there are people who GENUINELY did vote for UKIP quite recently within the last 12 months in the borough.
We know polls adjust for past-vote-weighting.
I'm just wondering in a General [as opposed to borough or EU vote] whether this is distorting the past vote weighting so that the polls are showing UKIP performing more strongly in the General than they actually are by observable calibration on the ground.
If I'm right, then polls are methodogically over-stating UKIP. My thesis is that a past-vote weighting for a Borough or EU poll should not be confused with a past-vote weighting for the General. Yet it seems that they are.
Can those who look at these things more closely than me comment? Is there a methodology point here that might explain why the UKIP vote appears to be holding up on the polls more than we're seeing on the ground?
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot0 -
Kle
Sure - official lines - interesting tweets fine. But Scot just knocked up 11 tweet pastes in 10 minutes from a back bench Tory MP and a guy with only 1,000 followers..0 -
So we've talked through the permutations of leftwing coalitions.
Less has been said recently about Tory options.
Am I right in thinking this leak about declaring victory means that Cameron is going to go for a confodence and supply deal with the Lib Dems or govern as a minority?0 -
If Cameron does lead a minority government I just wonder how likely and possible it would be to get EVEL through / end Barnett with the help of Labour.0
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Another Slab, another face:
“@SuperOldHolborn: @ranty_man @flashboy @Holbornlolz Ed does it to himself really.. pic.twitter.com/wlAtZ8xksf”<< FANTASTIC
— Ranty Man (@ranty_man) May 3, 20150 -
Piffle. It adds interest - I like to see what's out there. All sides do it.murali_s said:
Yep but this clutters up the site. This is after all a political betting discussion blog.kle4 said:
When Cameron unveils a ridiculous gimmick we shall see the reverse, everyone deserves their fun. Unfortunately his ridiculous gimmick of a law to force himself to do something was not as visually interesting, sadly.murali_s said:
Come on Scott - must copy and paste faster!Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp
You need to feed the voracious appetite of the right-wing fruitcakes (and they're out in force this morning!) who live on this blog!
Back to what this site is about - betting. Labour most seats - it's incredible value.
7/2 with Ladbrokes (was 4/1 yesterday).0 -
Mr. Freggles, could be a second Con-Lib coalition.0
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I'm not sure this is quite what Ed was looking for:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11580110/EdStone-social-media-reacts-to-Ed-Milibands-manifesto-monument.html0 -
I took a look at the Tory PPB and thought it was fine. A better idea than those soft focus babies and using a theme that makes sense. 'They screwed the economy and we've tried to fix it'.
The well tried format with the clock was going well until Cameron came on. What is the matter with him? The idea is the idea. The clock worked His appearance didn't. He looked like a salesman from QVC.
It just reminded those who thinks he's a slippery salesman that it's the same old claptrap.
Even if they win no one will convince me they wouldn't have done better with a less crass campaign0 -
Mr. kle4: n00b.
Mr. halv, welcome to pb.com.0 -
Labour POV has been we need a full scale constitutional shake up but could end up benefitting them to settle for EVEL at this point.halv said:If Cameron does lead a minority government I just wonder how likely and possible it would be to get EVEL through / end Barnett with the help of Labour.
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Roger, proposing that the anti-aids COI campaign was an example of "a Tory govenment who couldn't spend enough on TV trying to get themselves re elected" is a disgusting and inaccurate assertion.
Clearly you are unaware of how that ground breaking, brave campaign is now regarded.
" the campaign - the world's first major government-sponsored national Aids awareness drive - would later be hailed as the most successful. Its tactics were imitated around the world. " Jon Kelly BBC News Magazine 28 November 20110 -
The numbers favour it but I question whether the backbench Tories will wear it, or the LD party who must be consulted!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, could be a second Con-Lib coalition.
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Initially when I read that my reaction was that it was unfair to Ed Balls to highlight it. It was on the first instance an honest mistake. But the fact that he sent a second cheque which also bounced franky makes it fair game to highlight his incompetence in ensuring that the second cheque was on a valid account in credit.TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato said:Perfect analogy.
Ed Balls wrote £150 cheque to glazier for doing work on his £1million home
But his bank refused to honour it, sending cheque back to the tradesman
Mr Balls sent an apology and a second cheque but that was also refused
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065618/Exposed-Ed-Balls-cheque-bouncer-wants-run-Britain-s-finances-just-six-months-ago-couldn-t-write-good-cheque-150-glazier-TWICE.html#ixzz3Z4LN172X
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
If only he had written it on his Bankers Bonus account.....0 -
This can't be shown enough!
Where are the PB Labour supporters, when this and worse is happening?.@UKLabour Think segregation of the sexes is the way forward in 21st cent as long as those segregated vote for them! pic.twitter.com/aib6AA7RQr
— QueeniesSoapbox (@QueeniesSoapbox) May 3, 20150 -
Mr. Freggles, indeed. An unofficial supply and confidence deal may be likeliest (unofficial because the blues get to feel all independent and the yellows get the luxury of squealing opposition once more).
A second election would not suit the Lib Dems.0 -
What do you think of the EdStone?murali_s said:
Come on Scott - must copy and paste faster!Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: "There will have to be dialogue and discussions between the Labour Party and the SNP about the Queen's Speech," John Swinney #bbcsp
You need to feed the voracious appetite of the right-wing fruitcakes (and they're out in force this morning!) who live on this blog!
Or do you only carp about other posters?0 -
Anyway - does anyone think Preston will make it up today or will they choke again..0
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Although I personally don't find Cameron objectionable, I actually agree the ad would have been more effective without him. Short, simple, no images of party people to put people off. Maybe they'll show it as shorter and longer versions, one with his addition one without?Roger said:
The well tried format with the clock was going well until Cameron came on. What is the matter with him? The idea is the idea. The clock worked His appearance didn't. It just reminded those who thinks he's a slippery salesman that it's the same old claptrap.
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ELBOW for week-ending May 1st (up to and including 30th April - will do a final last-gasp ELBOW for polls conducted between 1st and 6th May):
Lab 33.9 (+0.3)
Con 33.8 (+0.8)
UKIP 12.9 (-0.9)
LD 8.5 (+0.3)
Green 5.0 (-0.3)
Lab lead 0.1 (-0.5)
Phone polls:
Con 34.7 (nc)
Lab 32.0 (+0.1)
UKIP 11.5 (+0.3)
LD 8.4 (-0.9)
Green 6.6 (+1.9)
CON lead 2.7 (-0.1)
Online polls:
Lab 34.3 (+0.5)
Con 33.7 (+0.8)
UKIP 13.2 (-0.9)
LD 8.5 (+0.4)
Green 4.7 (-0.7)
LAB lead 0.6 (-0.3)
0