politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.

Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.

Con 290 Lab 260 is looking very likely atm IMO.

The biggest thing of the night may well be now if Lab + SNP is a majority... thats still on a knife edge.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Editor of New Statesman
"Labour’s campaigners on the ground are privately less positive than the more positive polls would suggest. The party’s own targeting strategy indicates a less than rosy picture. "
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-if-polls-are-wrong

I think we're at the point now where the polls have provided as much information as they're going to, a few points swing on the night will make all the difference...

anything could happen..

A very pleasing MORI...

It's almost impossible to know what's going to happen this time next week isn't it?

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

The first Queens speech may be one that would be difficult to vote against. I don't think the Tories would put forward plans that would get voted against. They would not want an election too soon. They would wait until say their budget in March/April 2016 to put forward spending cuts that other parties would not like and that is when parliament would vote against. The Tories may then decide to trigger another election.

Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.

Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.

Con 290 Lab 260 is looking very likely atm IMO.

Yes. The question is whether the DUP and LDs would vote to back a Conservative Queen's speech. If they do, 320 votes might see it pass, if UKIP abstain. But it'll be bloody close.

hucks67 said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

The first Queens speech may be one that would be difficult to vote against. I don't think the Tories would put forward plans that would get voted against. They would not want an election too soon. They would wait until say their budget in March/April 2016 to put forward spending cuts that other parties would not like and that is when parliament would vote against. The Tories may then decide to trigger another election.

Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.

It's hard to tell how marginals will perform. Up till this week, they've been showing a swing of 3-3.5% to Labour. But, will the current shift to the Conservatives reduce that swing?

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.

I do think the Help To Buy ISA is a great innovation though. My wife and I bought our first home last Parliament, hardest thing as a then-20something was saving for the deposit. Helping people get into the habit of saving is a step on the right direction.

Have always thought the Labour vote was soft. -5!

Incidentally, now canvassed about 600 houses and yet to have anyone mention Miliband in any positive light. Cameron and Clegg mixed, but it is clear that Mili simply has not struck a positive chord with anyone down South.

SNP threat and 'prefer Ukip but know I need to vote Tory here' the most common themes of this week on doorsteps I've encountered.

Miss Plato, nepotastic.

Don't imagine Torquay is typical of the SW, MM. Torquay is closer to those declining south coast resorts like Hastings. The rest of the SW has plenty of wealthy retired people, boutique hotels, good restaurants, a film industry, small IT companies and even financial services moving into Truro. Couple that with low unemployment and low crime. There are problems but no worse than anywhere else.

Purseybear said:

GIN1138 said:

A very pleasing MORI...

It's almost impossible to know what's going to happen this time next week isn't it?

6/4 outright tory win in my book.

Meanwhile on Betfair its 10.5

Fill yer boots

If Con + LD = 310 then Cam stays in No. 10 with the backing of Kippers and Prods. As long as the Lib Dems get enough carrots to stick with the coalition, that is.

Political Partridge (@PoliticalAP)
30/04/2015 09:29
"Ive had some pretty late night sessions myself. In 1976, I saw ELO at the Birmingham NEC." @rustyrockets pic.twitter.com/6nzvnoTQJp

Ishmael_X said:

Can I recommend chapter 2 of the Cabinet Manual, "Elections and government formation", as a lucid 5 page exposition on what happens when GEs fail to return clear majorities? https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

A very good guide to what may or may not happen in the coming weeks, thanks.

Key points are:
1. That the incumbent govt. remains in office until an alternative govt can be formed, even if there is a vote of no-confidence in the incumbents.
2. When the PM resigns he is expected to give the Queen a name to call as the next PM. The Sovereign doesn't want to be involved except to be informed of what's going on!
3. 14 days after a no-confidence vote a second election is called automatically unless a vote of confidence in a government has been passed in the meantime.

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.

(snip)

Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.

It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

acf2310 said:

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.

It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.

They want a continued Coalition, but with as many LDs as possible. It looks like their internal polling in LD/Con battleground seats is dreadful, so they're probably worried about a Con majority, which would render them entirely irrelevant. =

They are two bolted together groups of socialists and liberals, that only hang together when the brand name enhanced their own chances. The damage to the national brand name may be so deep and long lasting that a split is inevitable.

If the LDs lose too many Con-facing seats there won't be a coalition for two reasons: simple mathematics (numbers) and a shift in the balance of power within the party. Plus a drubbing will reinforce the message that coalition is too damaging and not worth risking for a second term.

Its all a bout shoring up the vote in these seats.

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

The country really needs to find a better investment for wealthy people's cash than housing. If it doesn't then people looking to boost their retirement income with buy-to-let will continue to be able to outbid first-time buyers and home ownership will continue to decline.

I don't know what the government can do to make other types of investment more attractive, but I can think of lots of things it could do to make buy-to-let less attractive.

YBarddCwsc said:

hucks67 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.

The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.

I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.

There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.

It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.

Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?

I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.

I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.

I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.

Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?

I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.

Has to be Stella Creasy. Only Lab politician who has got anything done in the last 5 years. Only one I would ever entertain voting for.

@Financier

Obviously it's entirely reasonable for the anti-Labour side to use every criticism available (just like the pro-Labour side would for their opponents) but it strikes me as a pretty weak attack line to suggest that being interviewed via a fairly popular media channel is a disaster, regardless of what the electorate thinks of the host. Appearing to fawn over the host in order to try and pick up some reflected celeb glory would have been a faux pas, but that's not really how it worked. It's just the classic approach of trying to get some element of endorsement from a popular interview/presenter whilst not in turn endorsing that presenter's views. Ed phoned that in successfully enough.

Mind you, I haven't noticed whether Hodges has described it as a disaster for Ed yet - if he hasn't I could be wrong.

Not that I'd like to interrupt the Tories when they're making a mistake, but a strategy that involves ridiculing those who like Russell Brand (along with, basically, Scots, for example) doesn't seem the smartest. You have to be pretty certain your core vote is going to be strengthened by alienating a decent chunk of the electorate, and is large enough to get you into power, before it's a good idea. Courageous.

JosiasJessop said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.

(snip)

Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.

It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.

The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.

I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.

YBarddCwsc said:

hucks67 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.

The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.

I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.

There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.

It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.

Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?

I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.

I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.

I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.

Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?

I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.

Disagree, he is just a place man - not one good idea in his body and has allowed huge amounts of money to be the subject of fraud under Labour's watch. Also he is interested only in South Wales - where Labour has its main support.

I'll be doing a full post on Ipsos-MORI when the full data is available.

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.

Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?

Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?

When their Mum and Dad have shuffled off this mortal coil, our kids will get whatever it is we had, minus whatever taxes are payable. Hopefully, they'll all get a decent whack, but it won't be enough to allow them a louche life of idleness. I have never said I am happy for all my assets to go the state. I have said I have no problem with the current IHT regime.

I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/my-speech-to-turcan-connell-and-charlotte-street-partners-in-edinburgh/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=088a7024d9-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-088a7024d9-71623245

He does deal with naming candidates.

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.

(snip)

Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.

It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.

The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.

I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.

First question: what problems are you trying to fix with those solutions?

MarkSenior said:

All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .

2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8%
2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1%
2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3%
2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0%
2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%

Mark,,what is your current prediction of how many seats the LDs will hold onto?
Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

Including one that had 'Devo Max with knobs on"?

Or FFA now?

You think they'd get a better offer from Labour?

How would that play out in Holyrood 2016?

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Patrick said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Plato said:

I've no feel for Wales at all - anyone got numbers to hand?

chestnut said:

I'd love to see a Wales only poll from ICM.

There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.

Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.

If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.

The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.

The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.

And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.

Dear me. One wild poll and suddenly and we have to suffer clap-trap like this. Get Izzy to tell you some jokes.

You're LOSING Scotland. Have you not noticed?

Perhaps if it was 'Con losing Surrey' Roger would understand the enormity?

Oddly, the reaction on the Most Seats market in the wake of the Ipsos MORI poll is to see a slight shortening of Labour's price. Last price matched is 4.0.

YBarddCwsc said:

hucks67 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.

The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.

I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.

There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.

It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.

Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?

I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.

I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.

I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.

Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?

Dan Jarvis could be an excellent choice.

If Ed departs they should look to a fresh face with wide appeal beyond the core vote and experience of real life. Someone who gives the impression of being an honest man or woman who entered politics for the right reasons rather than another SPAD from a good background.

Same goes for the Blues if Dave departs next week of course. Not Boris, maybe Hammond or someone younger (as Cameron was in 2005)

t

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.

Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?

Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?

When their Mum and Dad have shuffled off this mortal coil, our kids will get whatever it is we had, minus whatever taxes are payable. Hopefully, they'll all get a decent whack, but it won't be enough to allow them a louche life of idleness. I have never said I am happy for all my assets to go the state. I have said I have no problem with the current IHT regime.

I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.

Do you approve or disapprove of Cons' £1m IHT plans?

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.

I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.

What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.

Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.

(snip)

Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.

It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.

The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.

I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.

First question: what problems are you trying to fix with those solutions?

Indeed. There are (at least) 2 fundamental problems in the housing market. Firstly Demand/Supply of houses (which is at least discussed now, even if solutions aren't particularly forthcoming) and Secondly (which is ignored by almost everyone) Demand/Supply of Credit with which to buy said houses. I think that much much more needs to be done on the latter (ie massively restrict credit available which will cause prices to crash and everything then be more affordable). There are very obvious problems for a political party suggesting that however (unless they already only get the votes of the under 35's anyway...) let alone actually doing anything about it.

Clegg genuinely believes he'll be DPM next month...

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .

2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8%
2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1%
2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3%
2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0%
2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%

Mark,,what is your current prediction of how many seats the LDs will hold onto?
Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?

32-34 depending on 1 to 3 in Scotland

Thanks..ive been getting a tad nervous the last few days being long on spin for 150 seat LibDems at 25..

CarlottaVance said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 25m25 minutes ago
Ann Summers boss: Cameron has to be the choice for PM http://sunpl.us/6017AMxH

GOsborneGenius ‏@GOsborneGenius 7m7 minutes ago
@SunPolitics Encouraging wankers is her business


Timothy

Lost none of his charm (sic). I wonder how things are down on the farm.....

Come on, it's a good gag

(and really good value when bought with the matching handcuffs, blindfold and flail...)

CarlottaVance said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

Including one that had 'Devo Max with knobs on"?

Or FFA now?

You think they'd get a better offer from Labour?

How would that play out in Holyrood 2016?

What's on offer doesn't matter. Politics in Scotland is about identity, and being tainted with the word "tory" is the worst possible slur.

It doesn't matter if the Tories offer a pet unicorn for every child in easterhouse and hot and cold running irn bru the SNP will oppose it. It's the result of a 30 year+ vilification campaign started in the thatcher years.

facts no longer matter, the shark has been jumped.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Purseybear said:

Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.

So you don't remember the vitriol flung at Thatcher, Major, Hague, or IDS?

Short memory.

Well yes, remembering some of the comments made about Lady Thatcher when she died, that was far in excess of what Milliband is getting.

CarlottaVance said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 25m25 minutes ago
Ann Summers boss: Cameron has to be the choice for PM http://sunpl.us/6017AMxH

GOsborneGenius ‏@GOsborneGenius 7m7 minutes ago
@SunPolitics Encouraging wankers is her business


Timothy

Lost none of his charm (sic). I wonder how things are down on the farm.....

Her business is encouraging the real thing not fantasy

Tissue_Price said:

Purseybear said:

Anyone got a website which gives tory gains from lab? I know there'll be some so would love to see a list.

Here are the single-figure prices. Halifax & Birmingham Northfield have certainly been tipped on here. I additionally quite like some of the low double-figure prices in Wales (Gower etc.)

Southampton Itchen       5/2  
Halifax                  7/2  
Hampstead and Kilburn    7/2  
Derby North              4/1  
Telford                  4/1  
Dumfries and Galloway    5/1  
Bolton West              5/1  
Westminster North        5/1  
Birmingham Edgbaston     6/1  
Walsall North            6/1  
M'brough S and C'land E  6/1  
Gedling                  6/1  
Wirral South            13/2  
Wakefield                7/1  
Southampton Test        15/2  
Penistone & S'bridge     8/1  
Birmingham Northfield    8/1  
Tooting                  9/1  
Newcastle-under-Lyme     9/1  
Bury South               9/1  
Harrow West              9/1

NOTA

SandyRentool said:

hucks67 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.

The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.

I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.

There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.

It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.

Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?

I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.

Johnson?!? FFS. Let hin stick to Brillo's sofa and HIGNFY.

If we lose, then I would prefer someone like Cruddas to take the party by the scruff of the neck.

Jim Murphy will need a new job come May 8th.

SeanT said:

Chuka Umunna is SO not the answer. Jesus how can anyone suggest him? The grandson of Sir Helenus Milmo, QC.

I've seen him in the flesh. He oozes posh London suavity, he's a more handsome version of Miliband and probably as off putting to average punters beyond the M25. Labour need a one nation northerner. Aspirational but ordinary.

Oh, he won't help! Jim Murphy was obviously not the answer either but Labour chose him.

JohnLilburne said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Purseybear said:

Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.

So you don't remember the vitriol flung at Thatcher, Major, Hague, or IDS?

Short memory.

Well yes, remembering some of the comments made about Lady Thatcher when she died, that was far in excess of what Milliband is getting.

Can't recall dance on Ralph Miliband's grave T shirts being up for sale.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19560284

Further tightening on most seats with these (LAB 4,0 Betfair)


http://electionforecast.co.uk/