I see Nick Clegg's constituency just falls inside Mercia. But in GE877 would it be a LD hold or a Viking gain?
Tamworth was the capital of Mercia. That's two famous things about it with it also being where the Conservative Party was launched by Sir Robert Peel. These days it's known for having some of the fattest people in the country.
Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
Final electorate figures for Broxtowe in case anyone is interested - 71764 (virtually unchanged), of whom 13246 are postal voters (of whom most voted last week). Last time, the winning mark was just over 20,000 - with fewer LDs but more UKIP this time, I expect it'll be somewhere similar, but perhaps a bit higher since there's really a lot of interest - turnout will probably be 55000 or so (71% last time). If we can get 75% of the promise out, we should be OK.
Any idea how much Soubry has been "promised" ?
Nick by 1,000, I reckon. But a late swing to the Tories could chip away at that.
Doubt it. More like 2,000 to 4,000. I still think Broxtowe is the most likely Lab gain from Con in the country. It has the best demographics. North Warwickshire is slowly trending against Labour, although they're likely to win it this time.
That's a big call. It'd have Nick doing better than he did in 2005GE.
I don't doubt he'll win, but I do wonder if our perceptions are clouded by the fact we know him, generally like him, and he posts a lot on here.
My guess is UKIP are going to be squeezed very hard in the marginals. But in the safe seats they could still put in some unexpectedly good showings, especially safe Labour seats in places like Yorkshire and the North East.
Agree. I know it's unscientific, but here in a VERY safe NE urban seat, hearing a lot of support for UKIP. From the weirdest quarters too - a primary school head whose school has 65% EAL kids, a police officer, Iranian man who runs cafe. This of course is very unlikely to convert to seats, but I think UKIP will do very well in constituencies where people "know" that labour will win anyway.
My guess is UKIP are going to be squeezed very hard in the marginals. But in the safe seats they could still put in some unexpectedly good showings, especially safe Labour seats in places like Yorkshire and the North East.
Agree. I know it's unscientific, but here in a VERY safe NE urban seat, hearing a lot of support for UKIP. From the weirdest quarters too - a primary school head whose school has 65% EAL kids, a police officer, Iranian man who runs cafe. This of course is very unlikely to convert to seats, but I think UKIP will do very well in constituencies where people "know" that labour will win anyway.
Racking up votes in no hope seats. This is the success of anti politics. Like an anti-lib dem strategy.
I am sure that th lib dems would go down to 5% in the polls if that translate into a winning number of votes in 30 seats.
I suppose the interesting thing will be if there are former very safe LAB seats that become LAB/UKIP marginals next time round; especially if there is another election this year.
If the recent Great Grimsby poll is to be believed, it doesn't seem like it.
Mr. Sandpit, an English Parliament is essential. If there's further devolution to counties, fine, but an English Parliament must come first otherwise England cannot have equality with Scotland.
Separation of England and Scotland is essential. The Union is dead and unworkable now.
"All depends on the UKIP vote, if a proportion of that swings late to the Conservatives Soubry could sneak it, my impression last weekend is though the vast majority of the UKIP support will stay solid, Nick by less than 1000, maybe 500 but Conservatives to hold Amber Valley well worth a punt, UKIP support in that seat much more ex-Labour."
Do you have a Batmobile? You seem to get round a vast number of constituencies and then report on their expected majorities to within a few hundred. I went round a constituency the other day and wouldn't have a clue even which party was winning.
Imagine it: opposition leader loses seats, gets wiped out in Scotland, is a clear second in England, and contrives to become PM by allying with a party committed to the destruction of the UK.
I guess Miliband would also try screwing the English with crappy little regional assemblies as well, to spike the guns of English devolution by buggering it up horrendously.
In that situation, I wonder if Miliband's party would allow him to form a government, given its clear suicidality for Labour.
So Ed's personal ambitions might be in opposition to Labour's wider interests.
Cameron could call Milibands bluff, resign, then he would be forced to make it work..
In fact that would be a smart move by the tories, and I expect Cameron wouldn't want to hang around in that situation.
Being in government at the moment does give you some advantages.
.
This can get very complicated very quickly....
The only way i can see Cameron staying it is if we have a second election, and the either labour or tory majority might be possible.
But, that can only happen if Cameron resigns as PM, but remains leader of the tories, but i think thats unlikely.
If Ed gets a chance to be PM, he'll HAVE to try to make it work, and I can't see how labour could remove him.
If the Queen calls you to be PM, you have to follow it through.
Agreed, it will get very complicated very quickly.
If Dave can't get a coalition together by - let's be generous - Saturday afternoon, he'll be making his appointment to see HM first thing Monday morning. This is exactly what Brown did on Tuesday last time.
This will serve the twin purposes of dropping Ed in it from a massive height and allowing his own party to regroup around a new leader, because there WILL be a second election a few months down the line.
What if he's going for a minority government instead of a coalition? The Queen's Speech isn't scheduled until May 27th, it could be three weeks until anyone even gets to vote on it...
The SNP would have him completely over a barrel... I think Queenie would want something more certain, otherwise, whats stopping the SNP saying no, and bringing Ed down even before he's done anything
Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
We're getting into very murky waters very quickly aren't we....
Regional assemblies are demented. Leaving aside the fact that a 'North' Assembly would take about six seconds to be riven by a War of the Roses, they guarantee England gets a raw deal.
Here's why: 1) Scotland has devolution, which will only increase 2) English equality demand that England retains competence over devolved areas [for England, of course] 3) If England is carved into rubbish regions, this is impossible, because: 4) Could we really have varying education, transport, and fiscal policies between Yorkshire and Kent? Between Dover and Bristol? Would income tax [due to be devolved to Holyrood] ever credibly be varied within England? 5) Therefore an England-wide political body is required for England to have parity with Scotland. We could call it: 6) An English Parliament.
That seems inherently circular. The issue is resolved (at least in principle) by devolving exactly the same powers to all regions, including Scotland. Some kind of federal approach is probably the only way to stick the union back together now, and it can't be done with an English parliament because the size imbalance between England and the other regions is simply too great.
Pop down to Truro in a decade and I'll show you round the revived Cornish Parliament.
Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move put and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
Yes. Cameron as sitting PM has to resign first or have HM dismiss him. I don't think he'd do that unless (a) it was abundantly obvious he'd command no majority, or negotiations got him nowhere near cobbling something together and (b) Miliband could produce a piece of paper (or something) showing that he'd have more luck in forming a government than Cameron.
As soon as that happens, Cameron leaves and Miliband arrives as PM the same day, having been sworn in by HM.
If Miliband can't do (b) then Cameron just stays in office and challenges him to vote down the Queen's speech.
If Miliband can do (b) but it turns out to be bollocks and his Queen's speech is voted down anyway, then I don't know. 14 days of dilly-dallying and another election, possibly.
For some reason I find the idea of a Women's Equality Party hugely funny, as do I the fact that there is a Minister for Women *and Equalities*.
It's like having a Ministry for Tall Dwarves.
It's risible. A perfect example of the first word not only being superfluous but negating the meaning of the second. See also 'social justice', 'political correctness' etc.
My guess is UKIP are going to be squeezed very hard in the marginals. But in the safe seats they could still put in some unexpectedly good showings, especially safe Labour seats in places like Yorkshire and the North East.
Agree. I know it's unscientific, but here in a VERY safe NE urban seat, hearing a lot of support for UKIP. From the weirdest quarters too - a primary school head whose school has 65% EAL kids, a police officer, Iranian man who runs cafe. This of course is very unlikely to convert to seats, but I think UKIP will do very well in constituencies where people "know" that labour will win anyway.
MORI poll very good for the Tories, but tbh at this stage unless the Tories start polling 7%, or 8% leads they may not mean much if Cameron can't get a coalition government, particularly with the size of the centre-left block of MPs likely to be in the Commons. After the Times story, and from what's happened over the last five years it now looks highly unlikely a Con-Lib coalition will be formed; even more so if Clegg loses his seat. As for the reason why The Times leak occurred - I think it's to try and change the view that vote LD = get Tory, which is what many now think.
But when your party has senior members who are prepared to vote down the Queens Speech, who want veto powers on budgets (unpalatable to much of the Conservative Party, it should be said - Cameron will have a hard time convincing the Conservatives to accept these kind of proposals), and LD grassroots who want to avoid a coalition, I don't see how Clegg is going to get the authorisation he needs, given the mood now among LDs, let alone after May 8th to form a coalition. If this MORI poll is replicated on May 7th, the LDs will be on 11 seats! I cannot see them wanting to get into another coalition with after that kind of decimation. Even Confidence and Supply is looking unlikely - the LDs also have to get approval of that in their Triple Lock system, and you'd have to ask what on earth would be in it for the LDs?
As for Miliband wanting to govern as a minority, lol just lol. That's absolutely delusional, and if he really does that the government may not even last six months, let alone a year. He needs to get over himself and do a deal with the LDs, or he'll be out of office as quick as he came in. He certainly won't be getting a majority.
Paddy Power Politics @pppolitics 16m16 minutes ago Tories leading in South Thanet on latest Ashcroft, cut from 9/4 to 6/4. UKIP on the drift at 8/11. #GE2015
Imagine it: opposition leader loses seats, gets wiped out in Scotland, is a clear second in England, and contrives to become PM by allying with a party committed to the destruction of the UK.
I guess Miliband would also try screwing the English with crappy little regional assemblies as well, to spike the guns of English devolution by buggering it up horrendously.
In that situation, I wonder if Miliband's party would allow him to form a government, given its clear suicidality for Labour.
So Ed's personal ambitions might be in opposition to Labour's wider interests.
Cameron could call Milibands bluff, resign, then he would be forced to make it work..
In fact that would be a smart move by the tories, and I expect Cameron wouldn't want to hang around in that situation.
Being in government at the moment does give you some advantages.
.
This can get very complicated very quickly....
The only way i can see Cameron staying it is if we have a second election, and the either labour or tory majority might be possible.
But, that can only happen if Cameron resigns as PM, but remains leader of the tories, but i think thats unlikely.
If Ed gets a chance to be PM, he'll HAVE to try to make it work, and I can't see how labour could remove him.
If the Queen calls you to be PM, you have to follow it through.
Agreed, it will get very complicated very quickly.
If Dave can't get a coalition together by - let's be generous - Saturday afternoon, he'll be making his appointment to see HM first thing Monday morning. This is exactly what Brown did on Tuesday last time.
This will serve the twin purposes of dropping Ed in it from a massive height and allowing his own party to regroup around a new leader, because there WILL be a second election a few months down the line.
What if he's going for a minority government instead of a coalition? The Queen's Speech isn't scheduled until May 27th, it could be three weeks until anyone even gets to vote on it...
Surely for a minority on his own he'd need at least as many seats as he has now? I could imagine the LDs, DUP and UKIP abstaining, but he'd still need over 300 for a minority that could pass anything more than a vote of confidence.
Imagine it: opposition leader loses seats, gets wiped out in Scotland, is a clear second in England, and contrives to become PM by allying with a party committed to the destruction of the UK.
I guess Miliband would also try screwing the English with crappy little regional assemblies as well, to spike the guns of English devolution by buggering it up horrendously.
In that situation, I wonder if Miliband's party would allow him to form a government, given its clear suicidality for Labour.
So Ed's personal ambitions might be in opposition to Labour's wider interests.
Cameron could call Milibands bluff, resign, then he would be forced to make it work..
In fact that would be a smart move by the tories, and I expect Cameron wouldn't want to hang around in that situation.
Being in government at the moment does give you some advantages.
.
This can get very complicated very quickly....
The only way i can see Cameron staying it is if we have a second election, and the either labour or tory majority might be possible.
But, that can only happen if Cameron resigns as PM, but remains leader of the tories, but i think thats unlikely.
If Ed gets a chance to be PM, he'll HAVE to try to make it work, and I can't see how labour could remove him.
If the Queen calls you to be PM, you have to follow it through.
Agreed, it will get very complicated very quickly.
If Dave can't get a coalition together by - let's be generous - Saturday afternoon, he'll be making his appointment to see HM first thing Monday morning. This is exactly what Brown did on Tuesday last time.
This will serve the twin purposes of dropping Ed in it from a massive height and allowing his own party to regroup around a new leader, because there WILL be a second election a few months down the line.
Miliband, understandably, will do all he can to become PM next Friday - regardless of the consequences.
Even if the maths isn't with him, he has to give it all he can to forge a government. If he can get in front of the Queen and put forward a plausible government, he will have fulfilled his dream of becoming PM. It's the only chance he'll ever get and he is clearly confident enough in his own abilities to believe he can be a successful PM in a minority govt.
Next Friday morning he will be like Dr Elsa Schneider in the Last Crusade. He'll know that reaching out for the Holy Grail could bring the walls crashing down but the temptation will be too much to bear.
Don't know whether this has been discussed already, but I was just thinking that it may be the case that because Labour aren't going to win an overall majority some of their voters are going to be a bit disillusioned and won't bother voting in the same numbers as they would have done had they thought they had a chance of doing so, which most of them probably did believe just a few months ago (no matter how unlikely it was even then).
That might create an opening for the Tories to make one or two gains in places like Southampton Itchen, Halifax, etc. Unlikely but not as unlikely as it used to be, maybe.
I think both are fair shouts from whAt I understand. In Halifax I think there was a central office late appointment for th Labour PPC.
In South Itchen the Labour candidate is a privately educated oxford ppe graduate and the Tory is a local councillor with a forces background who is a local hero after foiling a shooting in 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-13022096
It's just as likely Labour will win some surprise seats as well. Despite the SNP strengths in Scotland Labour are bound to win a few as the swing against will not be uniform.
Harrow East, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Finchley & Golders Green are the best examples of seats Labour could win with a much bigger than average swing. I can't think of many outside London though.
I've got punts on both the reading seats, Reading East at 16-1 in the Ladbrokes "Labour seat bomb" market (Where I've backed Bristol West at 16-1 further down the list) and a bit of cash on Reading West.
I wouldn't be betting on Reading. Huge drops in those registered to vote....
£20 @ 11-4 West; £10 @ 16-1 East - bet loses if Kettering goes red.
Lots of new housing and industry being built around Kettering, should be moving demographically blue. Same with Corby nearby, although I wouldn't bet there as it's far TCTC and their last blue PM resigned on them!
Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?
Correct. See the very first post on this very long thread from @Ishmael_X with a link to the cabinet office working document. Basically DC is PM until he resigns, and he's expected to hold on until he can go to the Queen with the name of the next guy. Even if there's a no-confidence vote on day 1 of the new Parliament DC is still PM. 14 days after the no-confidence vote if no-one has won a vote of confidence then the second election happens. I guess it's possible that DC resigns and the Queen calls EM, who would become PM only to lose his own confidence motion and have Parliament dissolved yet remain as PM during the second election cycle...
Oddly, the reaction on the Most Seats market in the wake of the Ipsos MORI poll is to see a slight shortening of Labour's price. Last price matched is 4.0.
IT was this kind of reaction to polls that ruined me trading on the IndyRef result.
"Ruined" you ..... I'm very sorry to hear that!
Well, wiped out my float on Betfair which betting wise is the same thing. I traded myself into a red position and rather than cut the losses I suffered a rush of emotion to the head and let it ride.
Comments
I don't doubt he'll win, but I do wonder if our perceptions are clouded by the fact we know him, generally like him, and he posts a lot on here.
"All depends on the UKIP vote, if a proportion of that swings late to the Conservatives Soubry could sneak it, my impression last weekend is though the vast majority of the UKIP support will stay solid, Nick by less than 1000, maybe 500 but Conservatives to hold Amber Valley well worth a punt, UKIP support in that seat much more ex-Labour."
Do you have a Batmobile? You seem to get round a vast number of constituencies and then report on their expected majorities to within a few hundred. I went round a constituency the other day and wouldn't have a clue even which party was winning.
Pop down to Truro in a decade and I'll show you round the revived Cornish Parliament.
As soon as that happens, Cameron leaves and Miliband arrives as PM the same day, having been sworn in by HM.
If Miliband can't do (b) then Cameron just stays in office and challenges him to vote down the Queen's speech.
If Miliband can do (b) but it turns out to be bollocks and his Queen's speech is voted down anyway, then I don't know. 14 days of dilly-dallying and another election, possibly.
If there was a general election every week we could retire. Though the bookies would get better at it eventually...
But when your party has senior members who are prepared to vote down the Queens Speech, who want veto powers on budgets (unpalatable to much of the Conservative Party, it should be said - Cameron will have a hard time convincing the Conservatives to accept these kind of proposals), and LD grassroots who want to avoid a coalition, I don't see how Clegg is going to get the authorisation he needs, given the mood now among LDs, let alone after May 8th to form a coalition. If this MORI poll is replicated on May 7th, the LDs will be on 11 seats! I cannot see them wanting to get into another coalition with after that kind of decimation. Even Confidence and Supply is looking unlikely - the LDs also have to get approval of that in their Triple Lock system, and you'd have to ask what on earth would be in it for the LDs?
As for Miliband wanting to govern as a minority, lol just lol. That's absolutely delusional, and if he really does that the government may not even last six months, let alone a year. He needs to get over himself and do a deal with the LDs, or he'll be out of office as quick as he came in. He certainly won't be getting a majority.