If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
La b accuses BBC of bias as twice as many in audience support coalition compared to labour. How did they find that many LEs expect to see Danny with a false moustache in audience!
In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
Clegg was claiming the other day that 75% of their manifesto was instigated under the coalition - "far more than that of the tories" he tells us.
This article confirms that the Honda isn't a total dog. I can imagine Alonso leaving at the end of the season with Button wins the 1st 8 races next year.
Oh Red Bull [or Tesco's alternative which is the same] with sugar is too much. I've no sweet tooth so the sugar-free version for me. I hate coffee as it gives me a headache and repeats terribly. And strong tea is horrible.
I think Cheeselets and sour cream pretzels for snacking... yummy.
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.
Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.
Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.
Hah yes. I use the "I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap" line
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.
Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.
Hah yes. I use the "I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap" line
Only trouble is you'll only encourage [edit: unintentioanlly I am sure] the fruitcakes to draw inappropriate comparisons ...but never mind. I wonder who General de Gaulle and the 1er DLM are going to be? No, don't tell me - I'll save the treat for the weekend ...
Short discussion on Ynys Mon on BBC the other day, where it appeared that the Plaid were in with a shout. One question was asked in Welsh and replied to in English! Selection of clips clearly demonstrated the difference between to “industrial” are around Holhead, the traditional heart of the island and trendy Beaumaris.
I would have thought PC should have had a decent chance in Ceredigion, too, but for a report here from someone who’d met their candidate, and, to put it mildly, didn’t rate him.
Harry Boota UKIP PPC @Harry_Boota 25m25 minutes ago BBC rocked by new bias scandal – as TWO-THIRDS of debate audience are left-wing http://shr.gs/KxeydFV
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
I would (indeed I have with Sam) sell UKIP @ 10. And I'd buy Lib Dems at 15.
The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.
Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.
There is little hard polling, but I expect little change in Wales -- like Scotland in 2010.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
And some Welsh Labour supporters have asked why we get such a poor deal when (unlike Scotland or N. Ireland) we ” . . didn’t put the whole of the UK through the mincer via referendum or civil war“ (Rhodri Morgan)
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
Good one but 5.to 20 for UKIP would guarantee accuracy
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.
There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.
In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:
1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)
These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.
Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.
I've been backing the Tories heavily in posh spa towns in the SW: Cheltenham and Bath.
Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.
There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.
In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:
1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)
These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.
Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.
Similar picture in the Midlands I would say to the one you paint. Point 2 you make could decide several seats in the Midlands, although I suspect more of the UKIP solidly behind Mr Farage, in some seats like Amber Valley and Sherwood that could hurt Labour.
Labour will clearly do very well amongst Public Sector voters this election, outside that and other core support Miliband doesn't hold great appeal, clear to anyone who has been out among the public, also the start that UKIP have made biting into that WWC Labour vote could snowball Scotland style over the coming years.
Whether Eddie scrapes in to power with a third of the vote or he misses out Labour have a lot to address moving forward.
However, after adjustments for DKs, Won't Say, and turnout filtering you get to a 1% lead.
Interestingly, LibDem 2010 voters are over-sampled - probably the only seat in the country where LD 2010 voters need to be down weighted.
While I think it'll be very close, I think if TSE holds his nose, then Clegg will hold on.
Yep 2010 LD voters were oversampled in Lord A's poll but not as much as 2010 Labour voters . Before weighting adjustments Labour had come 2nd in the constituency in 2010 .
King Cole, reminds me of BBC coverage last night, which was rubbish.
They started covering the Conservative tax-law pledge [which is stupid, incidentally] with Labour's criticism of the policy. Not convinced that's the epitome of fairness, to be honest.
Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want to win as many seats as possible. Maybe they figure they have more chance of winning them against Tory candidates than against Labour or SNP ones.
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.
Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.
Hah yes. I use the "I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap" line
Only trouble is you'll only encourage [edit: unintentioanlly I am sure] the fruitcakes to draw inappropriate comparisons ...but never mind. I wonder who General de Gaulle and the 1er DLM are going to be? No, don't tell me - I'll save the treat for the weekend ...
Without giving away too much, the focus is more on Unionists/SLAB being like the French after World War I/In the lead up to World War II and winning the Indyref was their Maginot Line against the Nats
Edit: Thinking about it, does that make "The Vow" the Treaty of Versailles?
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
I would (indeed I have with Sam) sell UKIP @ 10. And I'd buy Lib Dems at 15.
Apart from that - looking good.
Don't you dare question the quality of my JISM ...
"2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy."
What kind of a stranger other than a caber tossing Scottish Nationalist could possibly express sentiments like that in a refined South Coast town? I think there is a serious danger that campaigners get so tunnel visioned that they project their own prejudices on the nice genteel folk they're meeting.
Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.
There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.
In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:
1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)
These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.
Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.
Similar picture in the Midlands I would say to the one you paint. Point 2 you make could decide several seats in the Midlands, although I suspect more of the UKIP solidly behind Mr Farage, in some seats like Amber Valley and Sherwood that could hurt Labour.
Labour will clearly do very well amongst Public Sector voters this election, outside that and other core support Miliband doesn't hold great appeal, clear to anyone who has been out among the public, also the start that UKIP have made biting into that WWC Labour vote could snowball Scotland style over the coming years.
Whether Eddie scrapes in to power with a third of the vote or he misses out Labour have a lot to address moving forward.
At least there are 1,000,000 fewer public sector workers than 2010.
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want to win as many seats as possible. Maybe they figure they have more chance of winning them against Tory candidates than against Labour or SNP ones.
Looks like Danny is a gonner and has been sent out by the LDs as a nightwatchman to see off the new ball as he won't be involved after the election.
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want a continued Coalition, but with as many LDs as possible. It looks like their internal polling in LD/Con battleground seats is dreadful, so they're probably worried about a Con majority, which would render them entirely irrelevant. =
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
If you objectively read your posts, Roger, you would stop posting. (Yours ever, Excited Schoolgirl)
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
If you objectively read your posts, Roger, you would stop posting. (Yours ever, Excited Schoolgirl)
Roger is unaware that YouGov are the only pollster that have changed their methodology during the campaign.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.
It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.
If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages: Conservative: 25 to 45 Labour: 25 to 45 Lib Dem: 5 to 15 UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
Can I have 100/1 on UKIP under 10% please?
Sorry, but betting would only sully the spotless integrity of my JISM.
Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson·3 mins3 minutes ago Here's the @specator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats.
Joke tweet but good article.
Whatever one thinks of Cameron the last government delivered serious change for the better, especially in Education and employment. The alternative is a government notionally run by Russell Brand's new best friend but with Len McClusky and Alex Salmond actually in charge. That is a scary and dangerous prospect.
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want a continued Coalition, but with as many LDs as possible. It looks like their internal polling in LD/Con battleground seats is dreadful, so they're probably worried about a Con majority, which would render them entirely irrelevant. =
They are two bolted together groups of socialists and liberals, that only hang together when the brand name enhanced their own chances. The damage to the national brand name may be so deep and long lasting that a split is inevitable.
Where did they ask the questions? I mean evening standard is a London based paper given out free in London. If that outcome was what the evening standard came back with off the rush hour tube then Labour are truly and utterly screwed.
Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.
It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.
If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.
Did you see Martin Horwood's cartoon tribute after Charlie Hebdo? Tremendous.
Still not a safe seat imo but I expect him to hold.
Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.
That's not a bad number, what with youtube not being, y'know, live TV, meaning that numbers will continue to increase over the next few days. Out of interest, anyone know how that compares to the number of viewers for the various soft-pedal sofa interviews like This Morning? (Safe, I guess, to assume that not too many people bother with iPlayer etc for these shows).
As far as I can work out, Cameron's slightly painful Heat Magazine interview is down in the low thousands on youtube (hard to assess as it's split into clips and mirrored on their own website). Although it got rather wider coverage on HIGNFY of course.
In principle it seems odd to criticise Miliband for giving an interview to a media channel with a substantial number of viewers - like it or not, media whoredom is part of the game now and I'm pretty confident all leaders have spent their time on channels with a far smaller audience. Does it win some votes? Don't know. Like any visibility it's a two-edged sword because it enables voters to hate you as well as love you, but in general it seems that strategists of all colours see the benefit of increasing profile in order to combat apathy as outweighing the hater risk,
Will the result of the latest LD leak be? 1. Enhance the Conservatives by communicating that the Conservatives will cut welfare. 2. Further damage the LDs as untrustworthy and hurt their own battles vs the Conservatives.
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want to win as many seats as possible. Maybe they figure they have more chance of winning them against Tory candidates than against Labour or SNP ones.
Looks like Danny is a gonner and has been sent out by the LDs as a nightwatchman to see off the new ball as he won't be involved after the election.
The problem is that he's taking the quick single at the start of the over, leaving captain Clegg at the business end in the fading light to deal with the bowling.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
Dear me. One wild poll and suddenly and we have to suffer clap-trap like this. Get Izzy to tell you some jokes.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Short discussion on Ynys Mon on BBC the other day, where it appeared that the Plaid were in with a shout. One question was asked in Welsh and replied to in English! Selection of clips clearly demonstrated the difference between to “industrial” are around Holhead, the traditional heart of the island and trendy Beaumaris.
I would have thought PC should have had a decent chance in Ceredigion, too, but for a report here from someone who’d met their candidate, and, to put it mildly, didn’t rate him.
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
I'd think that with Mr Alexander's latest intervention the Tories are seriously thinking if they can even work with the yellows again - preferring to leave Miliband to the wolves of a minority government.
The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.
Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Completely agree with your son. I'm under 30 and still live at home - cannot even afford to rent in the area I'm in (plus, rental market is dominated by students). Renting in a cheaper location is not an option because a) work is close to my current location and b) couldn't afford the transportation.
Majority of my friends are in a similar situation. Alas, we've just come to accept it really and make the best with the cards dealt.
"2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy."
What kind of a stranger other than a caber tossing Scottish Nationalist could possibly express sentiments like that in a refined South Coast town? I think there is a serious danger that campaigners get so tunnel visioned that they project their own prejudices on the nice genteel folk they're meeting.
LOL at Roger. "Genteel folk"? Do you have any idea of the number of smack-heads in Torbay?
The Chanel shop in Torquay closed in the Sixties, Roger. The south west is dominated now by minimum wage jobs.
But they still think Ed Miliband is a horror story waiting to happen. Come down for the day. I'll take you canvassing. Meet some real people for a change....
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.
Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?
Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.
That's not a bad number, what with youtube not being, y'know, live TV, meaning that numbers will continue to increase over the next few days. Out of interest, anyone know how that compares to the number of viewers for the various soft-pedal sofa interviews like This Morning? (Safe, I guess, to assume that not too many people bother with iPlayer etc for these shows).
As far as I can work out, Cameron's slightly painful Heat Magazine interview is down in the low thousands on youtube (hard to assess as it's split into clips and mirrored on their own website). Although it got rather wider coverage on HIGNFY of course.
In principle it seems odd to criticise Miliband for giving an interview to a media channel with a substantial number of viewers - like it or not, media whoredom is part of the game now and I'm pretty confident all leaders have spent their time on channels with a far smaller audience. Does it win some votes? Don't know. Like any visibility it's a two-edged sword because it enables voters to hate you as well as love you, but in general it seems that strategists of all colours see the benefit of increasing profile in order to combat apathy as outweighing the hater risk,
EdM has not been doing too badly at trying to put over the picture of him as a responsible politician, realises what the electorate want and could be a good PM, by releasing meaningful 'policies' each day - until he decides to publish an interview with Russell Brand - who may be a bit of a Yoof icon (and so increase that vote) but who would put off a large part of the rest of the electorate - especially those in Labour WWC areas. Just who advised EDM on that idea?
Editor of New Statesman "Labour’s campaigners on the ground are privately less positive than the more positive polls would suggest. The party’s own targeting strategy indicates a less than rosy picture. " http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-if-polls-are-wrong
Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.
It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.
If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.
Did you see Martin Horwood's cartoon tribute after Charlie Hebdo? Tremendous.
Still not a safe seat imo but I expect him to hold.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.
It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.
If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.
Question 1 of Ashcroft shows a very solid Tory lead there. The Tories won't be down much on their 2010GE share.
I don't think it's safe at all. That's different from saying the incumbent isn't personally popular: the two are not mutually exclusive.
Comments
It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.
*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.
I'll follow that. Except the sugar-free bit. Sugar-free food is Satan's supper.
However, after adjustments for DKs, Won't Say, and turnout filtering you get to a 1% lead.
Interestingly, LibDem 2010 voters are over-sampled - probably the only seat in the country where LD 2010 voters need to be down weighted.
While I think it'll be very close, I think if TSE holds his nose, then Clegg will hold on.
twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/593674269202194432/photo/1
*And the Lib Dems would be proud of the use of statistics assumptions
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/32503163
Mr. Eagles, we can only hope it's appropriate...
Yet he wants more?
Or just an excuse to get into bed with Labour?
This article confirms that the Honda isn't a total dog. I can imagine Alonso leaving at the end of the season with Button wins the 1st 8 races next year.
I think Cheeselets and sour cream pretzels for snacking... yummy.
LAB 30 -5
LD 8 +1
UKIP 10=
GRN 8 =
9% left.
6.5% if all the roundings are one way.
With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.
Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.
All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20
As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.
*sighs*
Mr. Eek, Alonso's a great driver but bloody abysmal at picking teams. Vettel and Hamilton both jumped ship with exquisite timing.
Miss Plato, I may stock up on varieties of chocolate.
Selection of clips clearly demonstrated the difference between to “industrial” are around Holhead, the traditional heart of the island and trendy Beaumaris.
I would have thought PC should have had a decent chance in Ceredigion, too, but for a report here from someone who’d met their candidate, and, to put it mildly, didn’t rate him.
Apart from that - looking good.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
And some Welsh Labour supporters have asked why we get such a poor deal when (unlike Scotland or N. Ireland) we ” . . didn’t put the whole of the UK through the mincer via referendum or civil war“ (Rhodri Morgan)
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
Labour will clearly do very well amongst Public Sector voters this election, outside that and other core support Miliband doesn't hold great appeal, clear to anyone who has been out among the public, also the start that UKIP have made biting into that WWC Labour vote could snowball Scotland style over the coming years.
Whether Eddie scrapes in to power with a third of the vote or he misses out Labour have a lot to address moving forward.
SNP: Labour
Plaid: Labour
PC: Labour
DUP: Whichever party needs them to command a majority.
Lib Dems: ?????????????
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/593669392690446336
They started covering the Conservative tax-law pledge [which is stupid, incidentally] with Labour's criticism of the policy. Not convinced that's the epitome of fairness, to be honest.
Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.
Edit: Thinking about it, does that make "The Vow" the Treaty of Versailles?
"2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy."
What kind of a stranger other than a caber tossing Scottish Nationalist could possibly express sentiments like that in a refined South Coast town? I think there is a serious danger that campaigners get so tunnel visioned that they project their own prejudices on the nice genteel folk they're meeting.
Ed Miliband is planning to go it alone and run a minority govt. Doesn't want a full coalition with anyone.
twitter.com/Herald_Editor/status/593684819193769984/photo/1
'Scottish Labour hunted to extinction'......
https://twitter.com/HarryAEvans/status/593692649871319041
(Yours ever, Excited Schoolgirl)
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-940/h--/q-95/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/4/29/1430339103401/e8308f2c-7d9b-4ff3-9dac-43581f013a4f-620x424.jpeg
http://sites.herbertsmithfreehills.vuturevx.com/51/9348/landing-pages/brexit.PDF
Conclusion - it's great to be a lawyer :-D
UKIP 3-22
Labour 25-40
Conservatives 27-42
Lib Dems 4-17
Greens 1-9
Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.
It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.
If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.
Whatever one thinks of Cameron the last government delivered serious change for the better, especially in Education and employment. The alternative is a government notionally run by Russell Brand's new best friend but with Len McClusky and Alex Salmond actually in charge. That is a scary and dangerous prospect.
Oh, and Happy Birthday @MikeK
Still not a safe seat imo but I expect him to hold.
As far as I can work out, Cameron's slightly painful Heat Magazine interview is down in the low thousands on youtube (hard to assess as it's split into clips and mirrored on their own website). Although it got rather wider coverage on HIGNFY of course.
In principle it seems odd to criticise Miliband for giving an interview to a media channel with a substantial number of viewers - like it or not, media whoredom is part of the game now and I'm pretty confident all leaders have spent their time on channels with a far smaller audience. Does it win some votes? Don't know. Like any visibility it's a two-edged sword because it enables voters to hate you as well as love you, but in general it seems that strategists of all colours see the benefit of increasing profile in order to combat apathy as outweighing the hater risk,
1. Enhance the Conservatives by communicating that the Conservatives will cut welfare.
2. Further damage the LDs as untrustworthy and hurt their own battles vs the Conservatives.
He doesn’t have to begin negotiations. He simply makes a very public offer, based on the remarkable result from Scotland.
What would Alex & Nicola do?
They are surely not going to say "we are only prepared to support Ed Miliband".
Majority of my friends are in a similar situation. Alas, we've just come to accept it really and make the best with the cards dealt.
The Chanel shop in Torquay closed in the Sixties, Roger. The south west is dominated now by minimum wage jobs.
But they still think Ed Miliband is a horror story waiting to happen. Come down for the day. I'll take you canvassing. Meet some real people for a change....
Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?
Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
"Labour’s campaigners on the ground are privately less positive than the more positive polls would suggest. The party’s own targeting strategy indicates a less than rosy picture. "
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-if-polls-are-wrong
I don't think it's safe at all. That's different from saying the incumbent isn't personally popular: the two are not mutually exclusive.