The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.
Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.
Con 290 Lab 260 is looking very likely atm IMO.
The biggest thing of the night may well be now if Lab + SNP is a majority... thats still on a knife edge.
Editor of New Statesman "Labour’s campaigners on the ground are privately less positive than the more positive polls would suggest. The party’s own targeting strategy indicates a less than rosy picture. " http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-if-polls-are-wrong
I think we're at the point now where the polls have provided as much information as they're going to, a few points swing on the night will make all the difference...
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
Perhaps the SNP could provide the CoTE for a Miliband govt ?
Can I recommend candidate Margret Ferrier standing in Rutherglen and Hamilton West as a possible fiscal maestro ? She seems on the ball regarding those tricky sums.
Editor of New Statesman "Labour’s campaigners on the ground are privately less positive than the more positive polls would suggest. The party’s own targeting strategy indicates a less than rosy picture. " http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-if-polls-are-wrong
Better strike Ipsos Mori off that "positive to Labour" list...
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
The first Queens speech may be one that would be difficult to vote against. I don't think the Tories would put forward plans that would get voted against. They would not want an election too soon. They would wait until say their budget in March/April 2016 to put forward spending cuts that other parties would not like and that is when parliament would vote against. The Tories may then decide to trigger another election.
Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.
Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.
Con 290 Lab 260 is looking very likely atm IMO.
Yes. The question is whether the DUP and LDs would vote to back a Conservative Queen's speech. If they do, 320 votes might see it pass, if UKIP abstain. But it'll be bloody close.
Another 5% tory lead poll. For everyone confident this is hung parliament if these bigger tory leads are right then thats just 1 or 2% off absolute majority. After 92 whose to bet against them?
Week to go. Govt incumbency bonus & royal baby & newspapers & Cammo upping his game. I know where my moneys placing.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
The first Queens speech may be one that would be difficult to vote against. I don't think the Tories would put forward plans that would get voted against. They would not want an election too soon. They would wait until say their budget in March/April 2016 to put forward spending cuts that other parties would not like and that is when parliament would vote against. The Tories may then decide to trigger another election.
Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.
It's hard to tell how marginals will perform. Up till this week, they've been showing a swing of 3-3.5% to Labour. But, will the current shift to the Conservatives reduce that swing?
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
It sounds like Armageddon is breaking out at Clapham Junction this morning. It's days like this you realise how better served North London is in terms of Public Transport.
In the Eye this week - a great little diary nugget about May2015 - that well known totally impartial website.
It's published by the Staggers, and run by Harry Lambert - EdM's godson. The Standard picked it up but it was spiked as his sister is deputy editor of the Standard... and the Times didn't use it as both kids are the offspring of Jenni Russell!
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
I do think the Help To Buy ISA is a great innovation though. My wife and I bought our first home last Parliament, hardest thing as a then-20something was saving for the deposit. Helping people get into the habit of saving is a step on the right direction.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
It's not just London. In my home town in the Midlands a one bedroom flat in the most downmarket part of town costs more than £100,000.
Incidentally, now canvassed about 600 houses and yet to have anyone mention Miliband in any positive light. Cameron and Clegg mixed, but it is clear that Mili simply has not struck a positive chord with anyone down South.
SNP threat and 'prefer Ukip but know I need to vote Tory here' the most common themes of this week on doorsteps I've encountered.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I can understand this. This is a real problem for all parties.
There was an old lady handing out leaflets at my railway station yesterday, campaigning against a new housing development of 5,000 homes. I smiled and politely refused the leaflet. My wife picked one up.
All the usual arguments: other local authorities giving ours an unfair share of housing, not using brownfield land first, we need houses of course just not here, no infrastructure to support it, ruining the nature etc. etc.
That's what all parties are up against. And these people vote. The trouble is, they do sometimes have a point, and big housing developers are very hard people to back and support. They do often run roughshod over local needs, and the new housing often looks crap.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
The first Queens speech may be one that would be difficult to vote against. I don't think the Tories would put forward plans that would get voted against. They would not want an election too soon. They would wait until say their budget in March/April 2016 to put forward spending cuts that other parties would not like and that is when parliament would vote against. The Tories may then decide to trigger another election.
Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.
It's hard to tell how marginals will perform. Up till this week, they've been showing a swing of 3-3.5% to Labour. But, will the current shift to the Conservatives reduce that swing?
Too many undecideds. If there are 10 million still to decide whether they vote and who for, then all the polls are pretty meaningless. That is about a third of the country saying that they don't know what they will do in a weeks time.
Late shift to Labour or Tory. Some people might not be happy with a minority government or a coalition and if enough people feel this way, then there could be a surprise majority.
Don't imagine Torquay is typical of the SW, MM. Torquay is closer to those declining south coast resorts like Hastings. The rest of the SW has plenty of wealthy retired people, boutique hotels, good restaurants, a film industry, small IT companies and even financial services moving into Truro. Couple that with low unemployment and low crime. There are problems but no worse than anywhere else.
If Con + LD = 310 then Cam stays in No. 10 with the backing of Kippers and Prods. As long as the Lib Dems get enough carrots to stick with the coalition, that is.
Surely, the most likely outcome of the election is that David Cameron makes an outright and public offer of FFA to the SNP.
He doesn’t have to begin negotiations. He simply makes a very public offer, based on the remarkable result from Scotland.
What would Alex & Nicola do?
They are surely not going to say "we are only prepared to support Ed Miliband".
They are voting down a Conservative Queens speech.
Well stranger things have happened, before May 2010 I would have said a Con/LD coalition was fantasy. It is very difficult to work out what will happen a week today and FPTP makes the exact result pretty much a lottery. One thing I think that we can be sure of is that definitive statements by all of the parties will be modified in the light of the result and any offers that are made.
Political Partridge (@PoliticalAP) 30/04/2015 09:29 "Ive had some pretty late night sessions myself. In 1976, I saw ELO at the Birmingham NEC." @rustyrockets pic.twitter.com/6nzvnoTQJp
"2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy."
What kind of a stranger other than a caber tossing Scottish Nationalist could possibly express sentiments like that in a refined South Coast town? I think there is a serious danger that campaigners get so tunnel visioned that they project their own prejudices on the nice genteel folk they're meeting.
LOL at Roger. "Genteel folk"? Do you have any idea of the number of smack-heads in Torbay?
The Chanel shop in Torquay closed in the Sixties, Roger. The south west is dominated now by minimum wage jobs.
But they still think Ed Miliband is a horror story waiting to happen. Come down for the day. I'll take you canvassing. Meet some real people for a change....
B&B's and tired sea side hotels attract claimants on housing allowance.
A very good guide to what may or may not happen in the coming weeks, thanks.
Key points are: 1. That the incumbent govt. remains in office until an alternative govt can be formed, even if there is a vote of no-confidence in the incumbents. 2. When the PM resigns he is expected to give the Queen a name to call as the next PM. The Sovereign doesn't want to be involved except to be informed of what's going on! 3. 14 days after a no-confidence vote a second election is called automatically unless a vote of confidence in a government has been passed in the meantime.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
I do think the Help To Buy ISA is a great innovation though. My wife and I bought our first home last Parliament, hardest thing as a then-20something was saving for the deposit. Helping people get into the habit of saving is a step on the right direction.
Without more homes, I'm afraid it just stokes prices. We have too many people chasing too few homes.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
(snip)
Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.
It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
It's almost impossible to know what's going to happen this time next week isn't it?
6/4 outright tory win in my book.
Meanwhile on Betfair its 10.5
Fill yer boots
I am. More & more sure this is heading to tory win. A big thing I've noticed last few days is people saying the same. Don't think lots will do it out of love for tories but to stop SNP-Lab coalition.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
Johnson?!? FFS. Let hin stick to Brillo's sofa and HIGNFY.
If we lose, then I would prefer someone like Cruddas to take the party by the scruff of the neck.
Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.
It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.
They want a continued Coalition, but with as many LDs as possible. It looks like their internal polling in LD/Con battleground seats is dreadful, so they're probably worried about a Con majority, which would render them entirely irrelevant. =
They are two bolted together groups of socialists and liberals, that only hang together when the brand name enhanced their own chances. The damage to the national brand name may be so deep and long lasting that a split is inevitable.
If the LDs lose too many Con-facing seats there won't be a coalition for two reasons: simple mathematics (numbers) and a shift in the balance of power within the party. Plus a drubbing will reinforce the message that coalition is too damaging and not worth risking for a second term.
Its all a bout shoring up the vote in these seats.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
The country really needs to find a better investment for wealthy people's cash than housing. If it doesn't then people looking to boost their retirement income with buy-to-let will continue to be able to outbid first-time buyers and home ownership will continue to decline.
I don't know what the government can do to make other types of investment more attractive, but I can think of lots of things it could do to make buy-to-let less attractive.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
Chukka will walk it.
LAB lose my vote if so
I noticed Ed was only 3rd choice for leader behind DM and Balls from my MP. So i suspect he may be a Chukka man.
Still its not relevant as Ed will be PM next week.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
Has to be Stella Creasy. Only Lab politician who has got anything done in the last 5 years. Only one I would ever entertain voting for.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
Dear me. One wild poll and suddenly and we have to suffer clap-trap like this. Get Izzy to tell you some jokes.
And as for it being impossible for people in Torbay to "hate" Ed Miliband, I've heard educated London lefties, Highgate-dwelling Labour activists even, tell me precisely that. They hate him.
I'm always shocked when I hear it, because I don't hate the guy. Just revile his policies and despair of his worldview. As a human being he seems quite affable.
But plenty of people out there really dislike him, the same way people dislike posh Tories. And that's probably no coincidence: Miliband is seen as just another one of THEM, the despised, super-wealthy metrosexual elite.
Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.
Obviously it's entirely reasonable for the anti-Labour side to use every criticism available (just like the pro-Labour side would for their opponents) but it strikes me as a pretty weak attack line to suggest that being interviewed via a fairly popular media channel is a disaster, regardless of what the electorate thinks of the host. Appearing to fawn over the host in order to try and pick up some reflected celeb glory would have been a faux pas, but that's not really how it worked. It's just the classic approach of trying to get some element of endorsement from a popular interview/presenter whilst not in turn endorsing that presenter's views. Ed phoned that in successfully enough.
Mind you, I haven't noticed whether Hodges has described it as a disaster for Ed yet - if he hasn't I could be wrong.
Not that I'd like to interrupt the Tories when they're making a mistake, but a strategy that involves ridiculing those who like Russell Brand (along with, basically, Scots, for example) doesn't seem the smartest. You have to be pretty certain your core vote is going to be strengthened by alienating a decent chunk of the electorate, and is large enough to get you into power, before it's a good idea. Courageous.
William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .
We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls
If you objectively read your posts, Roger, you would stop posting. (Yours ever, Excited Schoolgirl)
Roger is unaware that YouGov are the only pollster that have changed their methodology during the campaign.
Not true - another pollster has changed methodology by ignoring older polls when newer ones are available in the same constituency.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
Has to be Stella Creasy. Only Lab politician who has got anything done in the last 5 years. Only one I would ever entertain voting for.
Stella Creasy is impressive, but the problems in Scotland argue against a London MP.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
Chukka will walk it.
Another wealthy 'out of touch' Londoner, with a strong aversion to mixing with the little people? He's not the right answer.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
(snip)
Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.
It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.
The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.
I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.
It sounds like Armageddon is breaking out at Clapham Junction this morning. It's days like this you realise how better served North London is in terms of Public Transport.
And in Clapham, North Yorkshire it's a bright morning with a hint of snow on Ingleborough peak and boisterous lambs in the field outside... And with fibre-to-the-home Gigabit broadband about to happen thanks to a community project and flourishing high-tech businesses run from barns and farmhouses, the perfect answer to those who can't afford to buy a house in London...
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
Disagree, he is just a place man - not one good idea in his body and has allowed huge amounts of money to be the subject of fraud under Labour's watch. Also he is interested only in South Wales - where Labour has its main support.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I can understand this. This is a real problem for all parties.
There was an old lady handing out leaflets at my railway station yesterday, campaigning against a new housing development of 5,000 homes. I smiled and politely refused the leaflet. My wife picked one up.
All the usual arguments: other local authorities giving ours an unfair share of housing, not using brownfield land first, we need houses of course just not here, no infrastructure to support it, ruining the nature etc. etc.
That's what all parties are up against. And these people vote. The trouble is, they do sometimes have a point, and big housing developers are very hard people to back and support. They do often run roughshod over local needs, and the new housing often looks crap.
The anti-change brigade. The UK is a small island and housing tends to get concentrated together, so that services can be organised. It is happening all around the country.
The way forward is to find ways of building affordable apartments in big towns and cities, that people can rent or rent to buy. Younger people may want to live closer to the cafes, bars, clubs etc. Currently apartments in towns/cities tend to be more expensive than shoebox houses out in the suburbs. I know it is to do with land prices, but surely a way can be found to offer affordable housing. If they do this on a decent scale, then other rents may be reduced and housing benefit is reduced.
All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .
2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8% 2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1% 2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3% 2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0% 2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.
Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?
Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?
When their Mum and Dad have shuffled off this mortal coil, our kids will get whatever it is we had, minus whatever taxes are payable. Hopefully, they'll all get a decent whack, but it won't be enough to allow them a louche life of idleness. I have never said I am happy for all my assets to go the state. I have said I have no problem with the current IHT regime.
I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
Chukka will walk it.
Another wealthy 'out of touch' Londoner, with a strong aversion to mixing with the little people? He's not the right answer.
Are there any female possibilities?
Half their membership (exact figure, anyone?) are from London and the London block of MPs (50 or so, including a few in commuter towns) will be proportionately more important once Scotland is gone. Chukka looks well placed though presumably the unions will go for Burnham or Cooper.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
Disagree, he is just a place man - not one good idea in his body and has allowed huge amounts of money to be the subject of fraud under Labour's watch. Also he is interested only in South Wales - where Labour has its main support.
I agree that there is huge amounts of fraud under Labour’s watch in S. Wales (such as AWEMA).
That is what happens, unfortunately, when you have a virtual one party state.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
(snip)
Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.
It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.
The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.
I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.
First question: what problems are you trying to fix with those solutions?
If - IF - Cameron is still PM in eight days time, he really needs to be magnanimous and generous with those hordes of screaming Nats. They'll want him to be vindictive, to further their cause. He shouldn't give them the pleasure.
Instead, offer Devomax or FFA. Treat them with particular respect. Make generous deals.
That's the right thing for the Union, and - agreeably - it will also encourage other voters, in Wales and elsewhere, to abandon Labour, just like the Scots.
Wales and N.Ireland want more money as well. Will English voters be happy ?
All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .
2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8% 2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1% 2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3% 2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0% 2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%
Mark,,what is your current prediction of how many seats the LDs will hold onto? Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?
Anyone got a website which gives tory gains from lab? I know there'll be some so would love to see a list.
This is list of Labour Marginals as per an old spreadsheet I have with UNS from electoralcalculus. The number indicates Tory seats if all those below were held (inc Clacton/ Rochester & Strood)
To get Luton South would require a 2.8% swing Lab-Con
336 Luton South 335 Southampton Test 334 Oldham East and Saddleworth 333 Westminster North 332 Blackpool South 331 Chorley 330 Exeter 329 Derbyshire North East 328 Tooting 327 Nottingham South 326 Walsall South 325 Eltham 324 Gedling 323 Plymouth Moor View 322 Wakefield 321 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East 320 Newcastle-under-Lyme 319 Halifax 318 Birmingham Edgbaston 317 Walsall North 316 Telford 315 Morley and Outwood 314 Great Grimsby 313 Dudley North 312 Derby North 311 Wirral South 310 Southampton Itchen 309 Bolton West 308 Hampstead and Kilburn
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
Dear me. One wild poll and suddenly and we have to suffer clap-trap like this. Get Izzy to tell you some jokes.
You're LOSING Scotland. Have you not noticed?
Perhaps if it was 'Con losing Surrey' Roger would understand the enormity?
If - IF - Cameron is still PM in eight days time, he really needs to be magnanimous and generous with those hordes of screaming Nats. They'll want him to be vindictive, to further their cause. He shouldn't give them the pleasure.
Instead, offer Devomax or FFA. Treat them with particular respect. Make generous deals.
That's the right thing for the Union, and - agreeably - it will also encourage other voters, in Wales and elsewhere, to abandon Labour, just like the Scots.
Don't know if you saw this piece form Alex Massie in response to the Finkelstein article yesterday:
The problem with FFA from a Unionist perspective is that it will make Scotland a lot poorer. If that is the case, why not just be poor and independent?
Oddly, the reaction on the Most Seats market in the wake of the Ipsos MORI poll is to see a slight shortening of Labour's price. Last price matched is 4.0.
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
I do think the Help To Buy ISA is a great innovation though. My wife and I bought our first home last Parliament, hardest thing as a then-20something was saving for the deposit. Helping people get into the habit of saving is a step on the right direction.
Without more homes, I'm afraid it just stokes prices. We have too many people chasing too few homes.
This. In fact, there is an argument that every piece of government tinkering in the property market since the scrapping of mortgage interest tax relief has has an inflationary effect.
Redward's stamp duty holiday for FTBs means the stamp duty saving can be added to the bid. Result: higher house prices.
Constant increases in stamp duty mean it's cheaper to convert the loft than sell up and buy bigger. So fewer houses are sold, and when they are, they're bigger. Result: higher house prices.
A little-noticed fact is that rented property is occupied more densely than owner-occupied. So if every home in the land were owner occupied overnight, we'd face an immediate housing crisis right there. Doing things to help people buy tends to enable buying while making it more expensive.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
I actually think Labour are now best off now trying to skip a generation. Many potential candidates are just too tainted with Blairism and Brownism.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
Dan Jarvis could be an excellent choice.
If Ed departs they should look to a fresh face with wide appeal beyond the core vote and experience of real life. Someone who gives the impression of being an honest man or woman who entered politics for the right reasons rather than another SPAD from a good background.
Same goes for the Blues if Dave departs next week of course. Not Boris, maybe Hammond or someone younger (as Cameron was in 2005)
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.
Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?
Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?
When their Mum and Dad have shuffled off this mortal coil, our kids will get whatever it is we had, minus whatever taxes are payable. Hopefully, they'll all get a decent whack, but it won't be enough to allow them a louche life of idleness. I have never said I am happy for all my assets to go the state. I have said I have no problem with the current IHT regime.
I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.
Do you approve or disapprove of Cons' £1m IHT plans?
Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.
So you don't remember the vitriol flung at Thatcher, Major, Hague, or IDS?
Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.
The decline in home ownership is really disturbing.
I think it's terrible. I have a lot of sympathy with the under 30s trying to get on now.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Until someone is willing to tackle what has become a British Third Rail of planning permission and the green belt it's always going to be tinkering at the edges.
(snip)
Rubbish. The problem is so much bigger than planning permission and green belt legislation: concentrating on those will make absolutely no difference.
It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.
The only solutions I can think of are ultra free-market, let housing developers go rip on building, or mass statist planning and development: e.g. Lots of new towns and new housing development zones that are rammed through.
I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.
First question: what problems are you trying to fix with those solutions?
Indeed. There are (at least) 2 fundamental problems in the housing market. Firstly Demand/Supply of houses (which is at least discussed now, even if solutions aren't particularly forthcoming) and Secondly (which is ignored by almost everyone) Demand/Supply of Credit with which to buy said houses. I think that much much more needs to be done on the latter (ie massively restrict credit available which will cause prices to crash and everything then be more affordable). There are very obvious problems for a political party suggesting that however (unless they already only get the votes of the under 35's anyway...) let alone actually doing anything about it.
All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .
2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8% 2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1% 2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3% 2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0% 2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%
Mark,,what is your current prediction of how many seats the LDs will hold onto? Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?
Chuka Umunna is SO not the answer. Jesus how can anyone suggest him? The grandson of Sir Helenus Milmo, QC.
I've seen him in the flesh. He oozes posh London suavity, he's a more handsome version of Miliband and probably as off putting to average punters beyond the M25. Labour need a one nation northerner. Aspirational but ordinary.
I would agree with that assessment. Even Ed is better than Chuka.
It sounds like Armageddon is breaking out at Clapham Junction this morning. It's days like this you realise how better served North London is in terms of Public Transport.
And in Clapham, North Yorkshire it's a bright morning with a hint of snow on Ingleborough peak and boisterous lambs in the field outside... And with fibre-to-the-home Gigabit broadband about to happen thanks to a community project and flourishing high-tech businesses run from barns and farmhouses, the perfect answer to those who can't afford to buy a house in London...
Please! As a northerner myself, please do not advertise the advantages of Yorkshire/ Durham/ Nland - the southerners think it is all slagheaps and occupied by wasters - and we want to keep it that way to stop them coming up and spoiling the best countryside in England.
All those bigging up Conservative chances in Cheltenham should try and figure out why their vote share in Cheltenham council elections has been sinking like a stone for the last 10 years .
2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8% 2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1% 2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3% 2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0% 2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%
Mark,,what is your current prediction of how many seats the LDs will hold onto? Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?
32-34 depending on 1 to 3 in Scotland
Thanks..ive been getting a tad nervous the last few days being long on spin for 150 seat LibDems at 25..
My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.
My very best wishes to him; it is an exciting journey (life) and he will be faced by many least-worst choices along the way.
Have I wrongly inferred from your posts, however, that when you snuff it (long away may that day be) you are happy to hand over all your assets to the state?
Have you told your eldest son the good/bad news?
............ I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.
You should consider diverting any inheritance from your parents to your kids as they probably need it more and you can avoid adding to your own IHT problem.
Anyone got a website which gives tory gains from lab? I know there'll be some so would love to see a list.
Here are the single-figure prices. Halifax & Birmingham Northfield have certainly been tipped on here. I additionally quite like some of the low double-figure prices in Wales (Gower etc.)
Southampton Itchen 5/2 Halifax 7/2 Hampstead and Kilburn 7/2 Derby North 4/1 Telford 4/1 Dumfries and Galloway 5/1 Bolton West 5/1 Westminster North 5/1 Birmingham Edgbaston 6/1 Walsall North 6/1 M'brough S and C'land E 6/1 Gedling 6/1 Wirral South 13/2 Wakefield 7/1 Southampton Test 15/2 Penistone & S'bridge 8/1 Birmingham Northfield 8/1 Tooting 9/1 Newcastle-under-Lyme 9/1 Bury South 9/1 Harrow West 9/1
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
Including one that had 'Devo Max with knobs on"?
Or FFA now?
You think they'd get a better offer from Labour?
How would that play out in Holyrood 2016?
What's on offer doesn't matter. Politics in Scotland is about identity, and being tainted with the word "tory" is the worst possible slur.
It doesn't matter if the Tories offer a pet unicorn for every child in easterhouse and hot and cold running irn bru the SNP will oppose it. It's the result of a 30 year+ vilification campaign started in the thatcher years.
facts no longer matter, the shark has been jumped.
Danny Alexander could no doubt leak a story a day about how the Lib Dems held back the Tories. If Miliband can't make use of these gift horses there really is little hope for Labour. Anyway interesting to see the Luvvies are back in town:
Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.
So you don't remember the vitriol flung at Thatcher, Major, Hague, or IDS?
Short memory.
Well yes, remembering some of the comments made about Lady Thatcher when she died, that was far in excess of what Milliband is getting.
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
Including one that had 'Devo Max with knobs on"?
Or FFA now?
You think they'd get a better offer from Labour?
How would that play out in Holyrood 2016?
Yes Yes No, they won't. Any association with the Conservatives sees the SNP go back very very fast indeed.
The only people who might vote Conservative in Scotland actually do so. Association is completely toxic, the realpolitik of Scotland just demands you don't work with the Conservatives.
NI is completely different, the DUP in particular isn't bothered who runs Westminster.
Anyone got a website which gives tory gains from lab? I know there'll be some so would love to see a list.
Here are the single-figure prices. Halifax & Birmingham Northfield have certainly been tipped on here. I additionally quite like some of the low double-figure prices in Wales (Gower etc.)
Southampton Itchen 5/2 Halifax 7/2 Hampstead and Kilburn 7/2 Derby North 4/1 Telford 4/1 Dumfries and Galloway 5/1 Bolton West 5/1 Westminster North 5/1 Birmingham Edgbaston 6/1 Walsall North 6/1 M'brough S and C'land E 6/1 Gedling 6/1 Wirral South 13/2 Wakefield 7/1 Southampton Test 15/2 Penistone & S'bridge 8/1 Birmingham Northfield 8/1 Tooting 9/1 Newcastle-under-Lyme 9/1 Bury South 9/1 Harrow West 9/1
Tooting only 9/1..there is no way they will lose that should be nearer 50/1
Anyone got a website which gives tory gains from lab? I know there'll be some so would love to see a list.
Here are the single-figure prices. Halifax & Birmingham Northfield have certainly been tipped on here. I additionally quite like some of the low double-figure prices in Wales (Gower etc.)
Southampton Itchen 5/2 Halifax 7/2 Hampstead and Kilburn 7/2 Derby North 4/1 Telford 4/1 Dumfries and Galloway 5/1 Bolton West 5/1 Westminster North 5/1 Birmingham Edgbaston 6/1 Walsall North 6/1 M'brough S and C'land E 6/1 Gedling 6/1 Wirral South 13/2 Wakefield 7/1 Southampton Test 15/2 Penistone & S'bridge 8/1 Birmingham Northfield 8/1 Tooting 9/1 Newcastle-under-Lyme 9/1 Bury South 9/1 Harrow West 9/1
If - IF - Cameron is still PM in eight days time, he really needs to be magnanimous and generous with those hordes of screaming Nats. They'll want him to be vindictive, to further their cause. He shouldn't give them the pleasure.
Instead, offer Devomax or FFA. Treat them with particular respect. Make generous deals.
That's the right thing for the Union, and - agreeably - it will also encourage other voters, in Wales and elsewhere, to abandon Labour, just like the Scots.
The problem with FFA from a Unionist perspective is that it will make Scotland a lot poorer.
That's not what the SNP says - no, its to be 'implemented over several years' - unlike independence, which could be done in 18 months.
In 2010 Cameron showed initiative & generosity reaching out to the Lib Dems - I see no reason why he wouldn't have a queens speech the SNP would struggle for decades to explain having voted down.........
'We hate the Tories' would not be a great platform for Holyrood 2016....
SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.
A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.
The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.
It is in the SNP’s interest for all voters to believe that they will vote down a Con Queens Speech. After the election, I expect them to act in Scotland’s best interests -- whatever they may be.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
Who would you vote for in a new Labour leaders contest ?
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
Johnson?!? FFS. Let hin stick to Brillo's sofa and HIGNFY.
If we lose, then I would prefer someone like Cruddas to take the party by the scruff of the neck.
I haven't managed to stay awake the WHOLE night since 1997 - this time I've stocked up with Red Bull to make sure I don't nod off between 2am-5am and miss all the initial fun.
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?
I expect a lot of them will just be non-voters.
The green vote will be fascinating to watch on the night. A goodly chunk is young - they polled 50% in 18-24 age group in one of the polls yesterday. Will they vote? Are they really fired up and registered? The huge vote reg surge suggests they might be. Another reason to stay up all night on Thursday
Would you believe I have to fly to Istanbul for dinner on election day? I'm going to miss all the fun
Chuka Umunna is SO not the answer. Jesus how can anyone suggest him? The grandson of Sir Helenus Milmo, QC.
I've seen him in the flesh. He oozes posh London suavity, he's a more handsome version of Miliband and probably as off putting to average punters beyond the M25. Labour need a one nation northerner. Aspirational but ordinary.
Oh, he won't help! Jim Murphy was obviously not the answer either but Labour chose him.
I have the same feeling of envy when in Wales. In some areas Wales is way ahead of Scotland and not just the rugby. Wales is much better at business development and urban regeneration.
The changing of the guard is an interesting theme. In Scotland the SNP were smart to get rid of Salmond and bring in Sturgeon. In the same way the Scottish Tories may have a vote increase this year unlike the English Tories due to a new young leader. People are looking for new ideas from our politicians.
If we are to search for the new leaders we will surely get after the election it may be worth looking at the next generation and not the traditional candidates we normally discuss.
Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.
So you don't remember the vitriol flung at Thatcher, Major, Hague, or IDS?
Short memory.
Well yes, remembering some of the comments made about Lady Thatcher when she died, that was far in excess of what Milliband is getting.
Can't recall dance on Ralph Miliband's grave T shirts being up for sale.
Chuka Umunna is SO not the answer. Jesus how can anyone suggest him? The grandson of Sir Helenus Milmo, QC.
I've seen him in the flesh. He oozes posh London suavity, he's a more handsome version of Miliband and probably as off putting to average punters beyond the M25. Labour need a one nation northerner. Aspirational but ordinary.
The same could probably be said for the Conservatives.
Which sadly does not fit my favoured Rory Stewart. He's anything but ordinary.
There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.
Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.
If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.
The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.
The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.
And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.
Dear me. One wild poll and suddenly and we have to suffer clap-trap like this. Get Izzy to tell you some jokes.
And as for it being impossible for people in Torbay to "hate" Ed Miliband, I've heard educated London lefties, Highgate-dwelling Labour activists even, tell me precisely that. They hate him.
I'm always shocked when I hear it, because I don't hate the guy. Just revile his policies and despair of his worldview. As a human being he seems quite affable.
But plenty of people out there really dislike him, the same way people dislike posh Tories. And that's probably no coincidence: Miliband is seen as just another one of THEM, the despised, super-wealthy metrosexual elite.
Cant believe the british press either. Never seen such vitriol thrown at a politician before as the onslaught this past week. we can bleat on about less dead tree press influence much as we like but all this will have an effect. The Sun, Mail & even surprising the Express are pounding Miliband with raw hatred & bigging up Cammo same time.
Yes - I mean the Media (Papers/ BBC/ Channel 4 have never espoused any hatred towards Nigel Farage have they? (The Express are (pretending to be?) pro UKIP.)
Comments
anything could happen..
Can I recommend candidate Margret Ferrier standing in Rutherglen and Hamilton West as a possible fiscal maestro ? She seems on the ball regarding those tricky sums.
https://audioboom.com/boos/3133904-snp-s-margaret-ferrier-on-full-fiscal-autonomy-for-scotland?utm_campaign=embed&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
It's almost impossible to know what's going to happen this time next week isn't it?
Labour are doing better in marginals and the swing may be enough to be very close to the Tory number of seats. It it whether the Lib Dems would back Tories or Labour. If Clegg is still leader he will find it difficult not forming another coalition with Cameron.
The battered and bruised Labour party have a very easy choice to make. They need to remove Ed Miliband.
I suspect a Labour leader with say greater roots in the Trade Union movement would not have ended up losing Scotland. The Trade Unions always used to be one of the ways in which working class Scots felt a kinship with working class voters in England or Wales.
There is a set of elections on Scotland & Wales next year, and the Labour party can’t afford to go into it with an ineffectual London intellectual at the helm.
It is in Ed’s interests to spout on about a minority Govt, but it sure isn’t in the interests of most of the rest of the Labour Party.
What on earth do they do? This is a real long-term problem for the Tories.
Ben Page of @IpsosMORI tells me the 5 point lead is significant, if sustained over the weekend. #GE2015
Week to go. Govt incumbency bonus & royal baby & newspapers & Cammo upping his game. I know where my moneys placing.
I cannot think of anyone other than Alan Johnson.
It sounds like Armageddon is breaking out at Clapham Junction this morning. It's days like this you realise how better served North London is in terms of Public Transport.
It's published by the Staggers, and run by Harry Lambert - EdM's godson. The Standard picked it up but it was spiked as his sister is deputy editor of the Standard... and the Times didn't use it as both kids are the offspring of Jenni Russell!
Marvellous stuff.
I do think the Help To Buy ISA is a great innovation though. My wife and I bought our first home last Parliament, hardest thing as a then-20something was saving for the deposit. Helping people get into the habit of saving is a step on the right direction.
Incidentally, now canvassed about 600 houses and yet to have anyone mention Miliband in any positive light. Cameron and Clegg mixed, but it is clear that Mili simply has not struck a positive chord with anyone down South.
SNP threat and 'prefer Ukip but know I need to vote Tory here' the most common themes of this week on doorsteps I've encountered.
There was an old lady handing out leaflets at my railway station yesterday, campaigning against a new housing development of 5,000 homes. I smiled and politely refused the leaflet. My wife picked one up.
All the usual arguments: other local authorities giving ours an unfair share of housing, not using brownfield land first, we need houses of course just not here, no infrastructure to support it, ruining the nature etc. etc.
That's what all parties are up against. And these people vote. The trouble is, they do sometimes have a point, and big housing developers are very hard people to back and support. They do often run roughshod over local needs, and the new housing often looks crap.
Late shift to Labour or Tory. Some people might not be happy with a minority government or a coalition and if enough people feel this way, then there could be a surprise majority.
Fill yer boots
It is very difficult to work out what will happen a week today and FPTP makes the exact result pretty much a lottery.
One thing I think that we can be sure of is that definitive statements by all of the parties will be modified in the light of the result and any offers that are made.
30/04/2015 09:29
"Ive had some pretty late night sessions myself. In 1976, I saw ELO at the Birmingham NEC." @rustyrockets pic.twitter.com/6nzvnoTQJp
Key points are:
1. That the incumbent govt. remains in office until an alternative govt can be formed, even if there is a vote of no-confidence in the incumbents.
2. When the PM resigns he is expected to give the Queen a name to call as the next PM. The Sovereign doesn't want to be involved except to be informed of what's going on!
3. 14 days after a no-confidence vote a second election is called automatically unless a vote of confidence in a government has been passed in the meantime.
It'd be good if a party actually addressed all the issues in a comprehensive housing policy. Sadly they will not, as too many people are advantaged by the current mess.
I’d say the ideal for Labour would be someone outside London, with some experience of life outside politics, and preferably some background in the Trade Unions. Someone from the North of England or Wales.
Perhaps Dan Jarvis ?
I think the most competent person in Welsh Labour is Carwyn Jones, who of course is not an MP.
If we lose, then I would prefer someone like Cruddas to take the party by the scruff of the neck.
Its all a bout shoring up the vote in these seats.
I don't know what the government can do to make other types of investment more attractive, but I can think of lots of things it could do to make buy-to-let less attractive.
I noticed Ed was only 3rd choice for leader behind DM and Balls from my MP. So i suspect he may be a Chukka man.
Still its not relevant as Ed will be PM next week.
Obviously it's entirely reasonable for the anti-Labour side to use every criticism available (just like the pro-Labour side would for their opponents) but it strikes me as a pretty weak attack line to suggest that being interviewed via a fairly popular media channel is a disaster, regardless of what the electorate thinks of the host. Appearing to fawn over the host in order to try and pick up some reflected celeb glory would have been a faux pas, but that's not really how it worked. It's just the classic approach of trying to get some element of endorsement from a popular interview/presenter whilst not in turn endorsing that presenter's views. Ed phoned that in successfully enough.
Mind you, I haven't noticed whether Hodges has described it as a disaster for Ed yet - if he hasn't I could be wrong.
Not that I'd like to interrupt the Tories when they're making a mistake, but a strategy that involves ridiculing those who like Russell Brand (along with, basically, Scots, for example) doesn't seem the smartest. You have to be pretty certain your core vote is going to be strengthened by alienating a decent chunk of the electorate, and is large enough to get you into power, before it's a good idea. Courageous.
Are there any female possibilities?
I'm not sure I like either of them. But I dislike the alternative even more.
The way forward is to find ways of building affordable apartments in big towns and cities, that people can rent or rent to buy. Younger people may want to live closer to the cafes, bars, clubs etc. Currently apartments in towns/cities tend to be more expensive than shoebox houses out in the suburbs. I know it is to do with land prices, but surely a way can be found to offer affordable housing. If they do this on a decent scale, then other rents may be reduced and housing benefit is reduced.
2006 Con 45.9% LD 40.8%
2008 Con 45.8% LD 44.1%
2010 Con 39.1% LD 50.3%
2012 Con 36.4% LD 43.0%
2014 Con 32.2% LD 42.9%
I am someone who stands to inherit, with my brother and sister, a £2 million house around the corner from EdM thanks to the fact my parents bought it 45 years ago when it cost £7,000 (and came with a sitting tenant). IHT will cost me. But I will be still be very lucky (or my kids will). I benefited hugely from the welfare state and believe it is vital to this country's future. It has to be paid for somehow. And unearned wealth seems like a reasonable target to me.
He does deal with naming candidates.
That is what happens, unfortunately, when you have a virtual one party state.
When I look at Scotland, I just feel envious.
Wales and N.Ireland want more money as well. Will English voters be happy ?
Activists are parroting 35 but is that a realistic possibility?
Ann Summers boss: Cameron has to be the choice for PM http://sunpl.us/6017AMxH
GOsborneGenius @GOsborneGenius 7m7 minutes ago
@SunPolitics Encouraging wankers is her business
Timothy
Or FFA now?
You think they'd get a better offer from Labour?
How would that play out in Holyrood 2016?
To get Luton South would require a 2.8% swing Lab-Con
336 Luton South
335 Southampton Test
334 Oldham East and Saddleworth
333 Westminster North
332 Blackpool South
331 Chorley
330 Exeter
329 Derbyshire North East
328 Tooting
327 Nottingham South
326 Walsall South
325 Eltham
324 Gedling
323 Plymouth Moor View
322 Wakefield
321 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
320 Newcastle-under-Lyme
319 Halifax
318 Birmingham Edgbaston
317 Walsall North
316 Telford
315 Morley and Outwood
314 Great Grimsby
313 Dudley North
312 Derby North
311 Wirral South
310 Southampton Itchen
309 Bolton West
308 Hampstead and Kilburn
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/labours-demise-in-scotland-is-a-problem-for-the-tories-too-they-just-dont-know-it-yet/
It was a very powerful piece of work.
The problem with FFA from a Unionist perspective is that it will make Scotland a lot poorer. If that is the case, why not just be poor and independent?
Redward's stamp duty holiday for FTBs means the stamp duty saving can be added to the bid. Result: higher house prices.
Constant increases in stamp duty mean it's cheaper to convert the loft than sell up and buy bigger. So fewer houses are sold, and when they are, they're bigger. Result: higher house prices.
A little-noticed fact is that rented property is occupied more densely than owner-occupied. So if every home in the land were owner occupied overnight, we'd face an immediate housing crisis right there. Doing things to help people buy tends to enable buying while making it more expensive.
If Ed departs they should look to a fresh face with wide appeal beyond the core vote and experience of real life. Someone who gives the impression of being an honest man or woman who entered politics for the right reasons rather than another SPAD from a good background.
Same goes for the Blues if Dave departs next week of course. Not Boris, maybe Hammond or someone younger (as Cameron was in 2005)
Short memory.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/593708649798705152
EdM's mother did that.
(and really good value when bought with the matching handcuffs, blindfold and flail...)
It doesn't matter if the Tories offer a pet unicorn for every child in easterhouse and hot and cold running irn bru the SNP will oppose it. It's the result of a 30 year+ vilification campaign started in the thatcher years.
facts no longer matter, the shark has been jumped.
https://twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/593705200386465792
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11572953/There-is-life-for-Ukip-after-Farage-and-it-can-be-found-in-Thurrock.html
Yes
No, they won't.
Any association with the Conservatives sees the SNP go back very very fast indeed.
The only people who might vote Conservative in Scotland actually do so. Association is completely toxic, the realpolitik of Scotland just demands you don't work with the Conservatives.
NI is completely different, the DUP in particular isn't bothered who runs Westminster.
In 2010 Cameron showed initiative & generosity reaching out to the Lib Dems - I see no reason why he wouldn't have a queens speech the SNP would struggle for decades to explain having voted down.........
'We hate the Tories' would not be a great platform for Holyrood 2016....
I have the same feeling of envy when in Wales. In some areas Wales is way ahead of Scotland and not just the rugby. Wales is much better at business development and urban regeneration.
The changing of the guard is an interesting theme. In Scotland the SNP were smart to get rid of Salmond and bring in Sturgeon. In the same way the Scottish Tories may have a vote increase this year unlike the English Tories due to a new young leader. People are looking for new ideas from our politicians.
If we are to search for the new leaders we will surely get after the election it may be worth looking at the next generation and not the traditional candidates we normally discuss.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19560284
Which sadly does not fit my favoured Rory Stewart. He's anything but ordinary.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/