politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Millsy, post-modern satire by the Spectator?

Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.

If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.

Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.

It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.

*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.

Times cartoon today is a peach - sums up the hypocrisy of Ed rather well I thought.

peterbuss said:

Following OGH's principle of looking at the numbers before turnout filtering, do we know what those were in Sheffield Hallam?

The Hallam sample (see: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Sheffield-Hallam-April-2015.HSTR-Full-tables.pdf) found about a 3% lead in raw Labour voters over LibDem ones.

However, after adjustments for DKs, Won't Say, and turnout filtering you get to a 1% lead.

Interestingly, LibDem 2010 voters are over-sampled - probably the only seat in the country where LD 2010 voters need to be down weighted.

While I think it'll be very close, I think if TSE holds his nose, then Clegg will hold on.

Interesting perspective from CCHQ*:

twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/593674269202194432/photo/1

*And the Lib Dems would be proud of the use of statistics assumptions

La b accuses BBC of bias as twice as many in audience support coalition compared to labour. How did they find that many LEs expect to see Danny with a false moustache in audience!

TheScreamingEagles said:

In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.

Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a ­veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.

Clegg was claiming the other day that 75% of their manifesto was instigated under the coalition - "far more than that of the tories" he tells us.

Yet he wants more?


Or just an excuse to get into bed with Labour?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Millsy, post-modern satire by the Spectator?

Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.

If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.

Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.

It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.

*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.

Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.

CON 35 +2
LAB 30 -5
LD 8 +1
UKIP 10=
GRN 8 =

9% left.

6.5% if all the roundings are one way.

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Millsy, post-modern satire by the Spectator?

Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.

If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.

Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.

It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.

*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.

Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.

Hah yes. I use the "I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap" line

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Millsy, post-modern satire by the Spectator?

Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.

If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.

Well on a more positive note, I've finally managed to write a thread for the weekend that references the Battle of Cannae.

It's a corker of a thread, compares the SNP to the Nazis* and talks about Ed Miliband blowing his brains out.

*Well Sturgeon to Rommel and Blitzkrieg.

Ooh, wonder if you talk about the Dyle Line and Sedan ... Looking forward to it.

Hah yes. I use the "I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap" line

Only trouble is you'll only encourage [edit: unintentioanlly I am sure] the fruitcakes to draw inappropriate comparisons ...but never mind. I wonder who General de Gaulle and the 1er DLM are going to be? No, don't tell me - I'll save the treat for the weekend ...

MikeK said:

Say good morning to the birthday boy: I'm 81 today.

Happy Birthday!

JosiasJessop said:

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

I would (indeed I have with Sam) sell UKIP @ 10. And I'd buy Lib Dems at 15.

Apart from that - looking good.

The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.

Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.

JosiasJessop said:

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

Good one but 5.to 20 for UKIP would guarantee accuracy

MarqueeMark said:

Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.

There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.

In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:

1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.

2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.

(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)

These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.

Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.

I've been backing the Tories heavily in posh spa towns in the SW: Cheltenham and Bath.

rcs1000 said:

peterbuss said:

Following OGH's principle of looking at the numbers before turnout filtering, do we know what those were in Sheffield Hallam?

The Hallam sample (see: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Sheffield-Hallam-April-2015.HSTR-Full-tables.pdf) found about a 3% lead in raw Labour voters over LibDem ones.

However, after adjustments for DKs, Won't Say, and turnout filtering you get to a 1% lead.

Interestingly, LibDem 2010 voters are over-sampled - probably the only seat in the country where LD 2010 voters need to be down weighted.

While I think it'll be very close, I think if TSE holds his nose, then Clegg will hold on.

Yep 2010 LD voters were oversampled in Lord A's poll but not as much as 2010 Labour voters . Before weighting adjustments Labour had come 2nd in the constituency in 2010 .

bigjohnowls said:

EWNBPM

Is this a crossover in your forecast BJO?

King Cole, reminds me of BBC coverage last night, which was rubbish.

They started covering the Conservative tax-law pledge [which is stupid, incidentally] with Labour's criticism of the policy. Not convinced that's the epitome of fairness, to be honest.

RE: Brand interview with Miliband

Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.

It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.

They want to win as many seats as possible. Maybe they figure they have more chance of winning them against Tory candidates than against Labour or SNP ones.

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

I would (indeed I have with Sam) sell UKIP @ 10. And I'd buy Lib Dems at 15.

Apart from that - looking good.

Don't you dare question the quality of my JISM ...

macisback said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.

There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.

In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:

1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.

2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.

(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)

These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.

Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.

Similar picture in the Midlands I would say to the one you paint. Point 2 you make could decide several seats in the Midlands, although I suspect more of the UKIP solidly behind Mr Farage, in some seats like Amber Valley and Sherwood that could hurt Labour.

Labour will clearly do very well amongst Public Sector voters this election, outside that and other core support Miliband doesn't hold great appeal, clear to anyone who has been out among the public, also the start that UKIP have made biting into that WWC Labour vote could snowball Scotland style over the coming years.

Whether Eddie scrapes in to power with a third of the vote or he misses out Labour have a lot to address moving forward.

At least there are 1,000,000 fewer public sector workers than 2010.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/miliband-preparing-minority-government-could-labour-make-it-work

Ed Miliband is planning to go it alone and run a minority govt. Doesn't want a full coalition with anyone.

The Herald has a cute cartoon this morning:

twitter.com/Herald_Editor/status/593684819193769984/photo/1

'Scottish Labour hunted to extinction'......

JosiasJessop said:

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

Can I have 100/1 on UKIP under 10% please?

EdPM 1.64; Labour most seats 4.2.....................

Roger said:

William Hague famously said that he has never found a campaign which affected the result. For all the fluctuations in polls the end result is invariably what it was at the beginning. .

We have seen polls go all over the place during te campaign but the only one showing the same result today as it showed when the campaign started is Yougov. Sorry if this looks like raining on your parades but if you could objectively read your own posts you'd be embarrassed. You sound like excited schoolgirls

If you objectively read your posts, Roger, you would stop posting.
(Yours ever, Excited Schoolgirl)

YBarddCwsc said:

Plato said:

I've no feel for Wales at all - anyone got numbers to hand?

chestnut said:

I'd love to see a Wales only poll from ICM.

There is a storm coming for Labour -- they have ruled the Welsh Assembly in Corruption Bay since inception, yet have not so far taken any blame for the poor performance in education and health.

Perhaps the Welsh will finally understand how politics works by the Assembly elections next year.

If you vote SNP, then the deal for Scotland gets better. If you vote for compliant Labour MPs, you’ll watch them get rich while you stay poor.

The Scots have finally realised that SLAB are self-serving machine-politics lefty mafiosi who have taken them for granted but delivered 3 parts of sod all - and decided to vote for someone else.

The Welsh will soon enough do the same. Labour have been a shamefully disastrous government in Wales. If PC replace them, and do an even half-way reasonable job of running Wales whilst pushing for Welsh unicorns in Westminster (a la SNP), then Labour will be dead in Wales too.

And then working class voters in England may take a look at the sneering Islington de-haut-en-bas Guardianista millionaires who run Labour and start on a similar journey.

MikeK said:

Say good morning to the birthday boy: I'm 81 today.

Good morning birthday boy - and many happy returns Mike,

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger is unaware that YouGov are the only pollster that have changed their methodology during the campaign.

FTFY

My 1-10 CIs are:

UKIP 3-22
Labour 25-40
Conservatives 27-42
Lib Dems 4-17
Greens 1-9

Tissue_Price said:

JosiasJessop said:

*** news alert ***

With a week to go until the next election, Jessop's Integrated Summing Mechanism has used the best eighteenth-century mathematical techniques to calculate the only 100% accurate general election result projection.

Unlike other inferior projections, JISM calculates a range of results for the major UK parties. You can guarantee the results will lie within the following ranges.

All figures in percentages:
Conservative: 25 to 45
Labour: 25 to 45
Lib Dem: 5 to 15
UKIP: 10 to 20

As it is guaranteed to be 100% accurate, JISM will not be updated before the 8th May, when it will be upgraded to 110% accuracy to two decimal places.

Can I have 100/1 on UKIP under 10% please?

Sorry, but betting would only sully the spotless integrity of my JISM.

acf2310 said:

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.

It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.

They want a continued Coalition, but with as many LDs as possible. It looks like their internal polling in LD/Con battleground seats is dreadful, so they're probably worried about a Con majority, which would render them entirely irrelevant. =

They are two bolted together groups of socialists and liberals, that only hang together when the brand name enhanced their own chances. The damage to the national brand name may be so deep and long lasting that a split is inevitable.

In some respects Danny has a right to feel a bit pissed off. He has done a lot of the hard grunt for the coalition but will be out on his ear shortly.

Daniel said:

RE: Brand interview with Miliband

Only 600,000 views. Not "millions" as some were suggesting on the left and you have to question if the move was worth it; will it generate any additional votes? very much doubt it.

That's not a bad number, what with youtube not being, y'know, live TV, meaning that numbers will continue to increase over the next few days. Out of interest, anyone know how that compares to the number of viewers for the various soft-pedal sofa interviews like This Morning? (Safe, I guess, to assume that not too many people bother with iPlayer etc for these shows).

As far as I can work out, Cameron's slightly painful Heat Magazine interview is down in the low thousands on youtube (hard to assess as it's split into clips and mirrored on their own website). Although it got rather wider coverage on HIGNFY of course.

In principle it seems odd to criticise Miliband for giving an interview to a media channel with a substantial number of viewers - like it or not, media whoredom is part of the game now and I'm pretty confident all leaders have spent their time on channels with a far smaller audience. Does it win some votes? Don't know. Like any visibility it's a two-edged sword because it enables voters to hate you as well as love you, but in general it seems that strategists of all colours see the benefit of increasing profile in order to combat apathy as outweighing the hater risk,

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.

It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.

They want to win as many seats as possible. Maybe they figure they have more chance of winning them against Tory candidates than against Labour or SNP ones.

Looks like Danny is a gonner and has been sent out by the LDs as a nightwatchman to see off the new ball as he won't be involved after the election.

The problem is that he's taking the quick single at the start of the over, leaving captain Clegg at the business end in the fading light to deal with the bowling.

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone work out what the Lib Dems actually want to do I mean a few days ago I thought they were 100% in the Tory column, now I'm really not sure.

It's making working out whether Dave stays in the job or not fundamentally difficult.

I'd think that with Mr Alexander's latest intervention the Tories are seriously thinking if they can even work with the yellows again - preferring to leave Miliband to the wolves of a minority government.

SouthamObserver said:

The significant thing about the polls is that they are now almost all showing either a Tory lead or level pegging. That surely indicates that the Tories are in front. The only issue is by how much.

Whatever way you look at it, I am getting increasingly confident that this election will see my redemption as a tipster. Tories with at least a 30 seat lead over Labour looks to be an ever more likely outcome.

Con 290 Lab 260 is looking very likely atm IMO.

YBarddCwsc said:

Surely, the most likely outcome of the election is that David Cameron makes an outright and public offer of FFA to the SNP.

He doesn’t have to begin negotiations. He simply makes a very public offer, based on the remarkable result from Scotland.

What would Alex & Nicola do?

They are surely not going to say "we are only prepared to support Ed Miliband".

They are voting down a Conservative Queens speech.

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My eldest boy is voting Green. He was very adamant about it last night. He said none of the major parties are telling the truth, so why bother with them? He doesn't expect anything from the Greens, but likes the fact that they are interested in saving the planet - whatever that means. He fully expects never to be able to buy his own home or to enjoy the lifestyle and opportunities his Mum and Dad have enjoyed. He is probably right about that - until we snuff it. My guess is that his views are to a greater or lesser extent shared by many under-30s.

I'm slightly older than that age range but I feel exactly the same. No chance of owning a home in the foreseable future.

Without taking a massive risk like I did it is basically impossible if you live in London. The bank lent us 5.5x our gross joint income and we came in with just 10% on the deposit. Under today' rules there is no way we would have qualified for the mortgage, and I'm thankful we did having seen how insane property prices have become since 2013.

YBarddCwsc said:

Pulpstar said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Surely, the most likely outcome of the election is that David Cameron makes an outright and public offer of FFA to the SNP.

He doesn’t have to begin negotiations. He simply makes a very public offer, based on the remarkable result from Scotland.

What would Alex & Nicola do?

They are surely not going to say "we are only prepared to support Ed Miliband".

They are voting down a Conservative Queens speech.

So, they will vote down a Queens speech that offers FFA ?

Yes.

SNP voting down a CON Queens speech is one of the biggest certs of the election.

A battered and bruised Labour party reeling from Scotland on 265 seats has a far harder choice to make.

The Lib Dems will probably support it but I'm not 100% certain about that.

Tissue_Price said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Casino Royale

Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.

It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.

If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.

Did you see Martin Horwood's cartoon tribute after Charlie Hebdo? Tremendous.

Still not a safe seat imo but I expect him to hold.

Wow that hit the nail on the head. Incroyable

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Casino Royale

Sorry to disappoint you, CR, but Cheltenham is definitely not a posh town.

It has its posh parts, but is generally 'mixed' and distinctly run-down in parts. It's a safe LD hold, because of the popular incumbent - or at least as safe as any LD seat gets these days.

If they lose it, they really are in mini-bus territory.

Question 1 of Ashcroft shows a very solid Tory lead there. The Tories won't be down much on their 2010GE share.

I don't think it's safe at all. That's different from saying the incumbent isn't personally popular: the two are not mutually exclusive.