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  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Slackbladder said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour's numbers in Scotland are so appalling it's difficult to parse the magnitude of what they represent.

    Labour doing better than we instinctively think in E&W for the GB national numbers to be where they are?
    hmm depends where the votes are stacking up.
    Indeed. Losing seats with 40% majorities in Glasgow in exchange for increasing majorities in London seats from 10% to 30% doesn't really help...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    KentRising said:

    Any hope of a unionist 'buffer' along the border?

    Mundell to hold on, Moore to hold on in Berwickshire (or Lamont to take it, as Alex Massie seems to predict: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/this-is-a-narrow-cast-election-not-a-national-contest/), and Russell Brown in Dumfries.

    Yes, it's a possibility.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    taffys said:

    If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.

    And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?

    The few Welsh polls have shown Plaid support virtually static at last GE's 11% and a small swing from Plaid to Labour .
  • trublue
    trublue Posts: 103
    Timms was bloody awful on DP. Doesn't know any Labour figures, flaps around desperately when figures are given to him, and all he wants to do is talk about the nasty tories, tories, tories.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Plato said:

    What's the biggest safe seat overturn?

    Anorak said:

    RobC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.

    Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.

    Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
    No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
    How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
    The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
    Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
    I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
    We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.

    I'd have the top contenders down as;

    Glasgow NE
    E. Renfrewshire
    Ed S
    Aberdeen S

    Any I'm missing?
    Dumfries Galloway
    Dumferline West Fife
    Rutherglen, Hamilton ?
    Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
    A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).
    Neil Hamilton had a 22,000 majority overturned in 1997
    http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/3783/top-tenshock-election-results.thtml
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I'm a bit puzzled by the Nits' gloating over there being more pandas than MPs of whatever party in Scotland.

    There are more pandas than SNP MPs in England. So presumably the Nits can likewise all f>ck off.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    taffys said:

    Who'd be left to lead SLAB?

    I don't know anything about Scottish politics, but it seems to me the unionists will have to at least try to unite on some level.

    Disestablish the 3 Westminster parties and start again as the Scottish Unionists under Ruth, the only decent non-SNPer left or..........
    #draftAnnabel!
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    YouGov ‏@YouGov 57s57 seconds ago
    Our latest Nowcast (including 41k new interviews): Con 272 (+2), Lab 276 (-1), LD 24 (-3), UKIP 3 (-), SNP 52 (+2) http://y-g.co/1ajctZx

    EICIPM
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    I'm a bit puzzled by the Nits' gloating over there being more pandas than MPs of whatever party in Scotland.

    There are more pandas than SNP MPs in England. So presumably the Nits can likewise all f>ck off.

    Wow, and you call out UKIP for racism & xenophobia.
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    KentRising said:

    Any hope of a unionist 'buffer' along the border?

    Mundell to hold on, Moore to hold on in Berwickshire (or Lamont to take it, as Alex Massie seems to predict: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/this-is-a-narrow-cast-election-not-a-national-contest/), and Russell Brown in Dumfries.

    Yes, it's a possibility.
    The LDs or Tories should have put up candidates in the border areas called Hadrian..
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Alistair said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.

    By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
    Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    MarkSenior said:

    taffys said:

    If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.

    And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?

    The few Welsh polls have shown Plaid support virtually static at last GE's 11% and a small swing from Plaid to Labour .
    Come on Mark..whats your view can the LDs still get to 35 seats as all the activists have been programmed to say?
  • JPJ2
    JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Bondie

    "There are more pandas than SNP MPs in England"

    In England it's a no score draw.

  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Creidekki said:

    Surely this SNP hegemony can't be good; even for them. Living almost as far from Scotland as geographically possible in this country makes me also far removed from the vibe on the ground. @the scottish PBers. Is there an Obamaesque "yes we can" style wave rushing over the highlands and lowlands where the voice for change is crowding out all others? Or is this groupthink somehow more unspoken and almost unrecognised? Does the SNP think that a clean sweep is good for politics in Scotland? Everything has consequences...

    It's a UK parliament anyway so in that sense the Scottish distinction is irrelevant. And Holyrood is under a gerrymandered D'Hondt system where such a result is almost impossible (for completely the opposite reasons than FPTP, but like FPTP at Westminster favoured by Labour originally for precisely that reason).

    I'd say it is a vote for change - from a variety of people. They will vote differently at Holyrood (which gives full credit to minority parties such as Tories and LDs), while at Westminster the Scottish MPs are only a small minority (which seems to be forgotten in some of the media coverage).
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    MarkSenior said:

    taffys said:

    If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.

    And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?

    The few Welsh polls have shown Plaid support virtually static at last GE's 11% and a small swing from Plaid to Labour .
    Plaid are not dynamic like the SNP and have hampered Lab conversion by not ruling out propping up a Tory minority

    Edit - their best shot would have been rainbow coalition in 2007 which they eschewed
  • EICIPM
    EICIPM Posts: 55
    bigjohnowls said:

    YouGov ‏@YouGov 57s57 seconds ago
    Our latest Nowcast (including 41k new interviews): Con 272 (+2), Lab 276 (-1), LD 24 (-3), UKIP 3 (-), SNP 52 (+2) http://y-g.co/1ajctZx

    EICIPM

    #boomshakalakalaka
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    KentRising said:

    Any hope of a unionist 'buffer' along the border?

    Mundell to hold on, Moore to hold on in Berwickshire (or Lamont to take it, as Alex Massie seems to predict: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/this-is-a-narrow-cast-election-not-a-national-contest/), and Russell Brown in Dumfries.

    Yes, it's a possibility.
    I would be +48 In the event of a Blue buffer
    I would be +7 in the case of all Yellow

    I may need to even that out a bit.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Ghedebrav said:

    Alistair said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.

    By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
    Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
    Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
  • TheKrakenAwakes
    TheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    Was listening to a radio report earlier regarding the unemployment figures and an analysis of the remarkable fall in the figures in recent years. The striking figure was the rise in the self employed and I wonder is whether this is as a result of the effects of Tax Credits. Being self employed enables workers to reach the required number of hours needed to qualify for Tax Credits... it could be that there are a significant number of families for whom the largest source of income is Tax Credits and as a result the unemployment figures are being distorted.
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    edited April 2015
    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    apparently this is from the second batch of postal votes sent out today - names did appear on first batch
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    JPJ2 said:

    Bondie

    "There are more pandas than SNP MPs in England"

    In England it's a no score draw.

    This makes me realise that anyone with a panda bet might want to check whether the species of panda is specified. IIRC there are of course two Giant Pandas in Edinburgh, but the RZSS also operates the Highland Wildlife Park with, the last time I checked, three Red Pandas.

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    marke09 said:

    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    That is beyond shocking if true.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    marke09 said:

    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    Dear Lord.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. 09, will they have to re-run that constituency after the 7th?
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Sandpit said:

    Neil Hamilton had a 22,000 majority overturned in 1997
    http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/3783/top-tenshock-election-results.thtml

    But wasn't that slightly unusual as Labour and the Lib Dems both stood down (I think!) to allow Bell in? It'd have to be in a normally-fought election.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SeanT

    ' as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.'

    Won't take long for voters in Wales to realize that voting Plaid will will give them the same situation.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Julie Andrews required for Tories apparently

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/29/With-one-week-to-go-the-Conservatives-have-mountai/
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Stereotomy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.

    Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as

    i) gutless
    ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost

    I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
    Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
    Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    Alistair said:

    marke09 said:

    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    That is beyond shocking if true.
    Unless they can get new forms out that seat will have to be run at a later date..
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 09, will they have to re-run that constituency after the 7th?

    Yes. I'd suggest bookies lurking look carefully at their books on the seat too.

    No bet tbh.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dyedwoolies random tip of the day.
    Norman Lamb to struggle in Norfolk North, saved by Kippers taking votes off the Blues, seat gone in 2020
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Alistair said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.

    By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
    Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
    Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
    The labour vote is going to drop off a cliff in East Dunbartonshire, IMO
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    marke09 said:

    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    apparently this is from the second batch of postal votes sent out today - names did appear on first batch

    Doesn't matter. Safe Tory area, Hull :mrgreen:
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    I think this law against tax rises might be the dumbest pledge of the campaign so far. Hopefully some respected former chancellors come out against it, I expect Ken Clarke thinks the idea is barking mad.

    Has Cameron been hanging around with Grover Norquist or something? This is the kind of idiot litmus test GOP candidates have to pledge.
  • Andy_Cooke1
    Andy_Cooke1 Posts: 21
    Tissue_Price said:

    Does anyone have estimated Yes vote by constituency in a table?

    If no-one else has responded yet (haven't got time to read the whole thread), I've got an estimated vote spreadsheet (some constituencies less reliable than others, because (aside from the Edinburgh seats and those coterminous with the Local Authority), I had to average approximately between areas over which some constituencies broke, and others (where multiple constituencies were within a single area) aren't atomised down below the Local Authority). I had a play with the BES numbers on how YES and NO voters were planning to vote and got a modelled output (although with some crudity) was gratifyingly close to most Ashcroft polls in those constituencies that have been polled. I can send it across tonight when I get home, if you like.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Flightpath1 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.

    The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47

    And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
    An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.
    What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
    You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
    You really are stupid if you think we care.

    It was the Scots who voted to stay in, we never voted to keep you. The Scots should put up or shut up. The Scots deserve full equality - that means no voting on English-only matters, just as the English can't vote on Scottish-only matters. The Barnett formula should be scrapped too and an equal amount spent on Scots as is spent on the English.

    If you want that, fine. If you don't, fine. But there's no reason for us to bend over backwards to keep you in if you want out.
    You dunderheid, there is no English parliament , so you think ostracising all UK Non English elected MP's is democracy. You are a bigger cretin than I gave you credit for. You obviously have no clue as to how money is spent in the UK either , just an all round nasty bitter twisted Little Englander. If only we got equality and our own money to spend rather than subsidising you.
    There is an English Parliament, with a few nationalists hangers-on.

    Isn't that what you thought too? Oh well. Play along or not, Westminster should belong to us and you can go jump.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Won't take long for voters in Wales to realize that voting Plaid will will give them the same situation.

    Labour rule has been a catastrophe in Wales, particularly health and educashun. There is little love for the party there any more. A bit like Scotland, and maybe even the North of England, they are there for the taking.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Slab in biotic crisis?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm no SNP supporter but I think having a no-bull-shit MP like 20 year-old Mhairi Black in the Commons giving as good as she gets to the likes of the inbred fools currently in residence there can can only be a good thing for democracy.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    edited April 2015
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Alistair said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.

    By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
    Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
    Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
    The labour vote is going to drop off a cliff in East Dunbartonshire, IMO
    I'm "Greened up" in that seat but would prefer the SNP to gain for a couple of hundred...

    £200 @ 1-2 Labour was an appalling bet, mind.
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504
  • calum
    calum Posts: 3,046
    trublue said:

    SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.

    There are extremists on both sides of the debate, suffice to say the MSM overplays the nationalists and pretty much turns a blind eye to the Unionist extremist, this isn't surprising as the MSM is pretty much across the board Unionist. Therefore, it is difficult for those outside of Scotland to get a clear picture of what's going on. You may recollect the scenes of extreme violence from George Square, I'll leave it to you judge who perpetrated these acts.

    In terms of seats, the SNP are now looking pretty good for a complete yellowash, anyway this is a betting site not a forum for recycling MSM drivel and wishful thinking.
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    john_zims said:

    @SeanT

    ' as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.'

    Won't take long for voters in Wales to realize that voting Plaid will will give them the same situation.

    And once Labour can only get into power with Plaid Cymru and SNP backing, it won't take long for voters in England to realise that voting Labour gets them screwed on how public funds are divided up.

    Sean is right: it will be Labour signing their own death warrant if they enter with the SNP. I hadn't realised until now what the long term ramifications would be.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    marke09 said:

    Major cock-up in Hull East: Two candidates missing from postal voting forms including Labour's @KarlTurnerMP #GE2015

    Whoops, at least one more person to add to the unemployment statistics in Hull.
    That's a void election surely, unless they can somehow contact everyone who might have an incomplete ballot paper individually?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think this law against tax rises might be the dumbest pledge of the campaign so far. Hopefully some respected former chancellors come out against it, I expect Ken Clarke thinks the idea is barking mad.

    Has Cameron been hanging around with Grover Norquist or something? This is the kind of idiot litmus test GOP candidates have to pledge.

    It's economically insane, but electorally well timed
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    They'll have to re-run that seat won't they?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    GOAAAALLLLLLLL!


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDwdkjtXIAAaXqk.jpg:large
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mary Poppins comes out for the Tories in 2015? Now that is amusing.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I've just seen the clip of Ms Sturgeon saying that "EdM can say what he likes now but will wake up and smell the coffee on May 8th." That Newsnight Scotland intv is a gift for Tories.

    I don't know when it was recorded - but it's all over Twitter. The vintage seems immaterial.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    OblitusSumMe said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    They'll have to re-run that seat won't they?
    Will give the continuity SDP candidate plenty of time to return to the constituency and prepare for government
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.

    Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as

    i) gutless
    ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost

    I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
    Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
    Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
    I really don't think there's any great public feeling that Labour has a duty not to vote against the Conservatives. If a party doesn't want to be voted down, they need to have a majority who either support them or who they've reached an agreement with not to vote against them. That's the way everyone expects it to be.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    An absolute guess, but as Turner comes after Nolan, have they just been cut in the wrong place? If so, printer error?
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    SDP? Is David Owen making one more comeback?!
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Alistair said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.

    By "they'll hold onto a couple more" do you mean LDs or non-SNP?
    Ha! LDs. Not 'LibLabCon'. In terms of a couple more, I was thinking Thurso plus one of Kennedy, Swinson or Alexander.
    Swinson is the only one who remotely has a chance of those three.
    The labour vote is going to drop off a cliff in East Dunbartonshire, IMO
    Any betting worth doing on Labour lost deposits in Scotland?
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    I've just seen the clip of Ms Sturgeon saying that "EdM can say what he likes now but will wake up and smell the coffee on May 8th." That Newsnight Scotland intv is a gift for Tories.

    I don't know when it was recorded - but it's all over Twitter. The vintage seems immaterial.

    She's right as well. EdM will end up kissing the tartan hem of her skirt to get himself into No.10. The ramifications for Labour in England are simply delicious.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Isn;t Hull east the seat where we saw a leaked copy of returns showing UKIP with a strong following?
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    Neil Hamilton had a 22,000 majority overturned in 1997
    http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/3783/top-tenshock-election-results.thtml

    But wasn't that slightly unusual as Labour and the Lib Dems both stood down (I think!) to allow Bell in? It'd have to be in a normally-fought election.
    Yes, Lab and Lib both stood aside for Martin Bell, the man in the white suit.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OblitusSumMe said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    They'll have to re-run that seat won't they?
    Could be a Photoshop fake.

    Though National Front and SDP. What kind of weird timewarp is Hull in?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    Erm, isn't it just folded over?
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    OblitusSumMe said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    They'll have to re-run that seat won't they?
    Labour will win anyway, so unlikely to lodge an election petition, maybe everyone will try to pretend it didn't happen..?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    What's the biggest safe seat overturn?

    Anorak said:

    RobC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.

    Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.

    Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
    .
    How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
    The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
    Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
    I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
    We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.

    I'd have the top contenders down as;

    Glasgow NE
    E. Renfrewshire
    Ed S
    Aberdeen S

    Any I'm missing?
    Dumfries Galloway
    Dumferline West Fife
    Rutherglen, Hamilton ?
    Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
    A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).
    Neil Hamilton had a 22,000 majority overturned in 1997
    http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/3783/top-tenshock-election-results.thtml
    Although to be fair, the main opposition parties gave Martin Bell a clear run against Hamilton.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    And compare his sins to later MPs who held on. Can't bear him myself. Losing 22k - wow.
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    What's the biggest safe seat overturn?

    Anorak said:

    RobC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.

    snip

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:



    snip

    Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
    They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
    No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
    How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
    The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
    Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
    I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
    We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.

    I'd have the top contenders down as;

    Glasgow NE
    E. Renfrewshire
    Ed S
    Aberdeen S

    Any I'm missing?
    Dumfries Galloway
    Dumferline West Fife
    Rutherglen, Hamilton ?
    Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
    A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).
    Neil Hamilton had a 22,000 majority overturned in 1997
    http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/3783/top-tenshock-election-results.thtml
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think this law against tax rises might be the dumbest pledge of the campaign so far. Hopefully some respected former chancellors come out against it, I expect Ken Clarke thinks the idea is barking mad.

    Has Cameron been hanging around with Grover Norquist or something? This is the kind of idiot litmus test GOP candidates have to pledge.

    Not hard to guess where this little stunt has come from. Ed Balls going round saying Dave is lying about VAT, "they said at the last election they wouldn't put it up but they did". On the doorstep tory canvassers report back that peeps would vote for us if they believed the tax policies, but they don't !

    Politically it makes sense, economically its nuts.
  • YBarddCwsc
    YBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited April 2015
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    taffys said:

    If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.

    And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?

    The few Welsh polls have shown Plaid support virtually static at last GE's 11% and a small swing from Plaid to Labour .
    Plaid are not dynamic like the SNP and have hampered Lab conversion by not ruling out propping up a Tory minority

    Edit - their best shot would have been rainbow coalition in 2007 which they eschewed
    FACTCHECK

    "An alternative option, the so-called "rainbow coalition" of Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, and the Conservatives, was negotiated between the leaders of those parties in mid-May, but was shot down at a Liberal Democrat special conference vote on 23 May." [Wiki]
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    Erm, isn't it just folded over?
    The MP has retweeted - I doubt it's a windup.

    https://twitter.com/KarlTurnerMP
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Think I'd have to vote Yorkshire First in Hull !
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Milibands worst case scenario - he votes down a Cameron QS and becomes PM with the SNP voting through his QS in return for a Devo Max bill, but Sturgeon then, sensibly, refuses to allow her MPs to vote on Rump UK matters only leaving Miliband unable to pass a budget or enact legislation for the rest of the UK alone, OR Sturgeon/Salmond (or Roberston if leading the Westminster SNPers) do vote but tack on amendments to every piece of legislation.
    Mkliband could make Murphy look like a political giant.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.

    Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as

    i) gutless
    ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost

    I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
    Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
    Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
    Exactly, that's why this country must never accept your cockamanie idea of changing voting to PR.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hull East is one of those "under-the-radar" seats for UKIP where they could do rather better than anyone is expecting. I remember in a recent local election in the Marfleet ward the turnout reached the dizzy heights of 11%.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    malcolmg said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    richardDodd said:

    Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing

    The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
    I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.

    It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
    Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.
    Yes. It is close to an extinction level event for SLAB.
    morgue slab
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Pandas would be elected as MPs in some seats in E&W too if they used this as a PEB

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGF6bOi1NfA
    JPJ2 said:

    Bondie

    "There are more pandas than SNP MPs in England"

    In England it's a no score draw.

  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    YBarddCwsc said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    taffys said:

    If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.

    And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?

    The few Welsh polls have shown Plaid support virtually static at last GE's 11% and a small swing from Plaid to Labour .
    Plaid are not dynamic like the SNP and have hampered Lab conversion by not ruling out propping up a Tory minority

    Edit - their best shot would have been rainbow coalition in 2007 which they eschewed
    FACTCHECK

    "An alternative option, the so-called "rainbow coalition" of Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, and the Conservatives, was negotiated between the leaders of those parties in mid-May, but was shot down at a Liberal Democrat special conference vote on 23 May." [Wiki]
    My apologies, I thought it was Plaid that shot it down.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    The VAT law move, like the foreign aid budget law, is pathetic and ridiculous in equal measure.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    Erm, isn't it just folded over?
    The MP has retweeted - I doubt it's a windup.

    https://twitter.com/KarlTurnerMP
    Blimey.
  • paulbarker
    paulbarker Posts: 77
    An interesting point is that support for others in Scotland ( essentially UKIP/Greens) has halved since Jan, from 8% to 4%. Thats essentially whats been happening in England & Wales as well, just not as obvious because of the plethora of polls.
    Note also that Scots Conservatives are only just behind Labour.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    If there are enough "bad" ballots in Hull, UKIP could spring a surprise. It'd have to be an awful lot, mind. It affects the national vote shares too which could be important for legitimacy post election.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JEO said:

    TGOHF said:

    Stereotomy said:

    SeanT said:

    Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.

    And what part of that is good for Dave?
    Labour being reduced to the inner city ghetto party (England and Wales only).

    Is there a danger that a Miliband-led government will try to increase immigration again so as to improve their standing in England?
    I don't think that is going to help Labour. Due to the benefits of multiculturalism the new immigrants would merely join their existing communities in this country - which means that Labour would merely see their majorities in these already safe seats increasing - and those forced out would be more likely to vote Conservative.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Lol - Lib Dem Gain in Hull East?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    SDP? Is David Owen making one more comeback?!
    The rump SDP did or do in Fact have a couple of councillors in the area - it's their last remaining stronghold (in relative terms!), bit like the original Liberals in Liverpool West Derby etc
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour won't do any kind of deal with the SNP because they know how damaging it would be. Instead they'll dare them to vote down a Labour Queen's Speech. with memories of 1979 in mind.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'd have to vote Yorkshire First in Hull !

    It's not the only area with Postal Vote problems.

    http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/local/maldon/12918185.display/

    "Maldon District Council has apologised over a postal vote error affecting 1,172 people."

    They accidentally mixed up the seats of Witham and Maldon constituencies.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    JohnO said:

    On the previous thread SeanT posted this twitter from Ipsos MORI


    @benatipsosmori: Looking at all polls public and in progress I have to say Conservatives edging ahead now, esp given Scottish situation

    Anyone else notice the two words "in progress". I wonder whether that's a hint tomorrow's national Ipsos MORI poll will also be showing the Conservatives ahead.

    Does sound like a Tory lead and that would align the phone pollsters.

    Ipsos have been showing a very peculiar level of swing to Lab in the south - way above anyone else - and had over 40% public sector workers on their last phone poll.

    One piece I have been watching is their Private Sector Employment tally, which broadly equates to a twenty-five million voting bloc. The Cons have been around 7% clear on average since the turn of the year in that group.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.

    Which channel?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    AndyJS said:

    Labour won't do any kind of deal with the SNP because they know how damaging it would be. Instead they'll dare them to vote down a Labour Queen's Speech. with memories of 1979 in mind.

    The SNP will vote it through. Easiest decision ever for the SNP.
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Morris_Dancer said:

    The VAT law move, like the foreign aid budget law, is pathetic and ridiculous in equal measure.

    I agree problem is though, after the Blair Brown years nobody believes in a politicians promises. So they have to find a way to make them stick....
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    Erm, isn't it just folded over?
    The MP has retweeted - I doubt it's a windup.

    https://twitter.com/KarlTurnerMP
    Blimey.
    A minor cockup, with potentially massive implications.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.

    Which channel?
    Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    BBC Brand doesn't vote...POEMWAS.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Christ.

    Jim Murphy needs to get down on his hands and knees and beg Scottish Tories for their votes. That atleast might be enough to save Edinburgh South, East Lothian and Aberdeen South.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.

    Which channel?
    Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
    I know.
    PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.

    I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion.
    When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Shocking what's going on in Scotland...

    If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015
    Stereotomy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Stereotomy said:

    What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.

    Problem with that is Labour would be perceived as

    i) gutless
    ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost

    I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
    Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.
    Ludicrous. It would sanction parties bringing each other down, with repeated returns to the polls until someone secured a majority. UK Plc would meantime go down the U-bend...
    I really don't think there's any great public feeling that Labour has a duty not to vote against the Conservatives. If a party doesn't want to be voted down, they need to have a majority who either support them or who they've reached an agreement with not to vote against them. That's the way everyone expects it to be.
    You don't get it. If the VoNoC was carried, Cameron would resign.

    The Queen always needs a PM. So Milichump would be summoned.

    What does he say? "No thanks, send for Salmond or Clegg" ?, or "OK, but I refuse to put my government to the test and so we will go back to the polls with me as PM."

    The former would be farcical and the latter a clear circumvention of the will of the people. Miliband would have caused a Constitutional crisis.

    The Queen would almost certainly re-appoint Dave as "caretaker" PM, and let events take their course.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Murphy must be close to having a breakdown live on National TV now.

    Which channel?
    Talking generally. His count should be fun to watch.
    I know.
    PB's "The Future Leader of Labour" losing his seat will be a nice dessert after the Clegg main course.

    I really dislike leaders who lead their party to sure oblivion.
    When the ship sinks the captain must go with it.
    If it happens, it will hardly be Murphy's fault. The ship was set on course for the reef and the steering disabled ages before he got to the bridge.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JosiasJessop said:

    marke09 said:

    sorry link to my previous post didn't appear

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/593375520487829504

    An absolute guess, but as Turner comes after Nolan, have they just been cut in the wrong place? If so, printer error?
    Yep - two missing candidates
    Karl Turner (Labour)
    Sarah Walpole (Green)

    (UKIP to win Hull as their candidate comes first. All Candidates to change their name to mr/mrs/miss Aaron ........Aaaainsworth in 2020.) (dots come before letters in Ascii)
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    GIN1138 said:

    Shocking what's going on in Scotland...

    If we do get an EU referendum (which is won by IN) will UKIP get a similar boost in 2020?

    Doubt it. But if it's won by OUT you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Love this

    Take a look at @Otto_English's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/593384616658100225?s=09
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    SPIN Gap widens to 16
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Apparently more Lord Ashcroft constituency polls out today?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2015-04-29/names-of-candidates-missing-from-hull-postal-ballot-paper/

    Missing names in Hull East Ballot now makes ITV news.
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