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The right wing press and establishment parties have whipped them up to believe they are funding Scotland rather than the other way round so I think they will not. They will try to keep at the trough as long as they can though and not go for federal.welshowl said:
I think you're right it will, now we are where we are (having not had a sensible federal settlement in 1999). Question is do the English overall care that much?malcolmg said:
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.Flightpath1 said:
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.dyedwoolie said:
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UKbigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.0 -
That is superb work, Casino Royale.Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/0 -
I don't believe they will, but I stuck money on the SNP to win every seat in Scotland at 25/1 with SkyBet only two weeks ago.
I have been doing a prediction of every seat in Scotland in a new blog over the last week. I'm predicting 56-1-1-1...
https://meanwhileinscotia.wordpress.com0 -
It's not true. It's a trick. To see how they're tricking you, imagine there had been twice as big an increase in households headed by immigrants. On their reasoning the proportion of new households headed by immigrants would have been over 100%, which is logically impossible.MikeK said:
You can twist the figures how you like, but it won't invalidate the the truth of those statistics, @rcs1000. 65% left just 35% of new households for the indigenous population since 1997.rcs1000 said:
Although the number peaked between 2005 and 2009 at 89% (!). Assuming constant household formation (which is obviously a ridiculous assumption), that means that between 2009 and 2014, just 31% of were headed by a foreign national.MikeK said:FTP.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 2h2 hours ago
65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says
http://polho.me/1QI5jhL
Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.
Of course, what does "headed" mean? Does it mean that the "Dad" was a foreign national? Is it a net number - or gross?0 -
The Tories have 8 days to do two things:
1) Reduce the UKIP Con/Lab defector ratio (3:2) in key marginals;
2) Reduce the LD-Lab/Con switcher ratio (2:1) in key marginals;0 -
There won't be another immediate election. Either Labour vote with them, and take office, or they don't, and the Tories carry on...TGOHF said:
Have the SNP said they will vote down a Con QS rather than abstain ?Pulpstar said:
The SNP vote down the Con Queen Speech.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
The question is, DO LABOUR.
If they have all 57 MPs why gamble on another election ?0 -
Because it won't trigger another election on its own. They vote down the Conservative QS and vote through the Labour one. If Labour abstain the Con one, Dave most likely remains as PM - though the 22 might get the knives out anyway if he is on 280 seats or so, and if Labour vote it down then Ed becomes an utterly weak PM propped up by the SNP. It's a complete nightmare for Labour. A real morten's fork, catch 22, damned if they don't, damned if they do.TGOHF said:
Have the SNP said they will vote down a Con QS rather than abstain ?Pulpstar said:
The SNP vote down the Con Queen Speech.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
The question is, DO LABOUR.
If they have all 57 MPs why gamble on another election ?
The SNP sit back and smile.0 -
No problem , I am amazed at how many people use it in similar fashion nowadays. Just me being a pedant.JosiasJessop said:
Pedant mode on (and I think this has been commented on before): in its traditional sense, and its origins, it means removal of one out of ten. But that is rather archaic now, and most definitions are more general: e.g. to cause great destruction to.malcolmg said:
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.JosiasJessop said:
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.richardDodd said:Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
II usually avoid it for that reason. Sorry. ;-)0 -
You could be right. The US system is frequently gridlocked. Government would just have to become more consensual if an early second election is to be avoided.welshowl said:
Could the electorate be playing a huge blinder here by leaving the politicians locked in a room for five years courtesy of FTPA yet unable to do anything at all?PeterC said:
That's right. I think Labour would sit it out in opposition and abstain on the Queen's speech. Cameron would be left running a government that would not have the power to legislate. Both parties would be left staring into space and hoping that something would just turn up.chestnut said:
That's one way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
The other one is that Labour MPs will be strung up if they are perceived to be short changing England and Wales in any way whatsoever.
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The choice for Labour if no one can form a government is a difficult one.
Choice 1: cobble together an anti-Tory alliance, have a year of Miliband trying to look Prime Ministerial, hope the Conservatives pick someone further to the right like Hammond or May and go back to the polls looking for a full mandate.
Choice 2: go into opposition, elect a more popular leader, highlight the fact that the SNP surge counter-productively led to a Tory government and go into the second election as a fresh choice compared to Cameron.0 -
I've changed my mind on this over the years. I used to agree with you, but the alternative meaning is so widespread (and appears first in all the dictionaries that I could find) that it has to be seen as the current main meaning.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, archaic?!
It's the correct usage. Mr. G is quite right to point that out.
E.g. : http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/decimate
Language changes. As I said below, I generally try to avoid using it for this reason.0 -
Without the SNP surge, Labour would be looking at at least 290 seats and the Labour/SNP chaos meme wouldn't have any legs.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Cameron would be very likely to be behind Labour on seats, and shut out of power. A Labour-LD coalition, or stable minority government would be on the cards.
As things stand it's not a given Cameron will be out-of-office if the alternative is a very weak Lab-SNP administration, and he's been given a potent line of attack to encourage UKIP waverers to return as well he wouldn't otherwise have.0 -
Clearly %-wise. The small electorate means that the Western Isles is unlikely to be the largest numerical majority in any scenario ;-)dyedwoolie said:
Yep, I think that's pretty likelyPulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?0 -
If DC remains PM but without any Scottish MPs, it would be very amusing if he made Edinburgh-born Michael Gove Scottish Secretary.0
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If Cam is 30 seats ahead, then the mathematics do not favour even a 59 seat SNP being a stable government.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.0 -
SPIN suspended snp seat market.
Con+LD stubbornly on 310 though. Some sort of conf+supply with 4* UKIP and 9*DUP maybe? Very tight.0 -
Yes. It is close to an extinction level event for SLAB.malcolmg said:
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.JosiasJessop said:
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.richardDodd said:Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.0 -
:-)weejonnie said:
Maybe semimated (halved), tridemisemimated (lose three quarters), septihemidemisemimated (lose 7 eighths)JosiasJessop said:
Pedant mode on (and I think this has been commented on before): in its traditional sense, and its origins, it means removal of one out of ten. But that is rather archaic now, and most definitions are more general: e.g. to cause great destruction to.malcolmg said:
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.JosiasJessop said:
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.richardDodd said:Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
II usually avoid it for that reason. Sorry. ;-)
Although 'Seminated' is too close to 'Inseminated' for me to use. It could cause confusion. ;-)0 -
Very well written article. It's going to be chaos come next Friday!Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
One thing you didn't mention was the Speaker and deputies, 2 each from Con and Lab whom I understand won't vote - could make a difference if the result is that tight, 321 for a majority, 290Con and 25LDs with the DUP and UKIP abstaining?0 -
Yes. A 2nd Con-LD coalition would likely bring in STV for local elections. That could soften up the UK public for a further referendum on Westminster voting reform in the 2020s following another chaotic hung parliament, or two.RodCrosby said:
However...Sean_F said:
The only people who can change the system are those who do well out of the system. Therefore the system doesn't change.rcs1000 said:
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.JEO said:As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
We have been through something like this before, 1910-1931.
A series of hung parliaments and coalitions, party splits, and part of the union delivering a wipeout election result, and seceding, thereby altering the balance of forces at Westminster.
The political landscape at the end looked nothing like it did at the beginning, and one of the great governing parties had imploded, never to fully recover.
Someone said on Sky that the example of the SNP may galvanise other voters around the UK to see the powerful attraction of gaining leverage in a hung parliament.
The big parties should be worried, and perhaps ought to bite the PR bullet, while they have the chance.0 -
I'd imagine what tory vote there is in Scotland is quite efficient, with pockets of decent support. On that basis, they should be looking to either hold their 1 seat and/or have a decent shot in the other 2 where they are strong.
I think the following scenario would be amusing.
57 SNP
1 LD at the top
1 CON at the bottom
SLAB - Ziltch
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I personally am not aware of anyone having anything against "outsiders". There will obviously be some but given the huge number of English people living here and running successful businesses it would be a very minor amount. I see very little xenophobic signs personally , a few bravehearts apart. I see a lot more from England in the media both newspaper and social media, but again am sure that on the ground it is a minority of people and the right wing press stirring trouble. Looking at things from up here from a media viewpoint it appears that Scottish people are hated , envied and reviled in England but I am sure that is a false impression.Brom said:
I think the newspaper reports, social media activity in Scotland and experiences of a couple of English people I know living in Edinburgh form my judgement of how some SNP supporters and activists feel about outsiders, but of course that is only my opinion.malcolmg said:
Speaking from a knowledgeable point of view no doubt , or out of your erse more like. Explain your xenophobic if you can, or did you really mean they were musical.Brom said:
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!dyedwoolie said:Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I'm sure your political affiliation and outlook might lead to a different belief. Either way I would compliment them on an excellent campaign.0 -
Mr. Jessop, humbug.
Next you'll be telling me that calling someone a scrofulous tatterdemalion isn't amongst the harshest of insults.0 -
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?0 -
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.Pulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE
E. Renfrewshire
Ed S
Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?0 -
And what part of that is good for Dave?SeanT said:Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
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Dumfries GallowayPong said:
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.Pulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE
E. Renfrewshire
Ed S
Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?
Dumferline West Fife
Rutherglen, Hamilton ?0 -
Thanks Sandpit. I've effectively excluded the Speaker. I expect the Speaker would vote in favour of stability, and that would mean backing whatever government arrangement that came top. In your scenario, he'd vote to back the Con-LD arrangement in the event of a tie.Sandpit said:
Very well written article. It's going to be chaos come next Friday!Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
One thing you didn't mention was the Speaker and deputies, 2 each from Con and Lab whom I understand won't vote - could make a difference if the result is that tight, 321 for a majority, 290Con and 25LDs with the DUP and UKIP abstaining?
The deputies cancel each other out.0 -
Interesting isnt it that we started out this Election campaign wondering whether Farage and UKIP woulod have the same traction as Bepe Grillo or Tsipras but it has been Sturgeon and the SNP who have taken over that mantle.
In all Euro elections over the last 4 years and through austeity the voters have put their cross next to anti ausyerity and against the mainstream Farage was hoping he would be the recipient and he may still be influential but it is Scotland that is playing that role for these UK elections.0 -
I do now as I think London will never implement decent devolution settlement , they will not cede power for anything so only option is out.TheWatcher said:
I suspect a sizeable number will vote to say 'Bye Bye'. That's what you want isn't it?malcolmg said:
They would vote to keep gouging us, they will try and hang on to us as long as we are producing cashTheWatcher said:
Good.malcolmg said:
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.Flightpath1 said:
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.dyedwoolie said:
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UKbigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.0 -
Excellent many thanks.Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
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Many thanks, antifrank.antifrank said:
That is superb work, Casino Royale.Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/0 -
You really are stupid if you think we care.malcolmg said:
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.Flightpath1 said:
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.dyedwoolie said:
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UKbigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
It was the Scots who voted to stay in, we never voted to keep you. The Scots should put up or shut up. The Scots deserve full equality - that means no voting on English-only matters, just as the English can't vote on Scottish-only matters. The Barnett formula should be scrapped too and an equal amount spent on Scots as is spent on the English.
If you want that, fine. If you don't, fine. But there's no reason for us to bend over backwards to keep you in if you want out.0 -
If the SNP do win as the polls indicate, not being a supporter of theirs in Scotland will make your life pretty difficult.
Dissenters to the SNP creed will be dealt with.
0 -
What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.0
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Labour needs Bruce Willis to save them in Scotland. And to never pay taxes again...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGMNPXcxZV4TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes. It is close to an extinction level event for SLAB.malcolmg said:
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.JosiasJessop said:
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.richardDodd said:Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.0 -
-
What is better? Choice 2 is surely easier than Choice 1.Artist said:The choice for Labour if no one can form a government is a difficult one.
Choice 1: cobble together an anti-Tory alliance, have a year of Miliband trying to look Prime Ministerial, hope the Conservatives pick someone further to the right like Hammond or May and go back to the polls looking for a full mandate.
Choice 2: go into opposition, elect a more popular leader, highlight the fact that the SNP surge counter-productively led to a Tory government and go into the second election as a fresh choice compared to Cameron.
Choice 1 requires the minor parties in the anti-Tory alliance to behave, Miliband to handle a awkward coalition with skill, no international disasters like Grexit over the year, and the Tories to make a colossal mistake on the leadership.
Choice 2 simply requires Labour not to make a colossal mistake on the leadership.
0 -
Try and lose decisively?Pulpstar said:
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?0 -
Labour being reduced to the inner city ghetto party (England and Wales only).Stereotomy said:
And what part of that is good for Dave?SeanT said:Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
0 -
Sign o' the times that no-one has called this poll a "clear outlier".0
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Also important to remember that polls like this keep Scotland at the top of the news cycle for longer, which suits the Con campaign nicely.
Of course, the English might get fed up of this sort of news, and choose to decide the election themselves...0 -
'Ting Tong' UKIP regd trademarkisam said:
Its not about the politicians nationality ting tong, but what they want for ScotlandFlightpath1 said:
Correct. isam's comments are silly. Blair went to a Scottish school more posh than Eton. Labour in 1997 was riddled with Scots they held a mass of Scottish seats and they thrust devolution on us.JEO said:
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.isam said:
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote forMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.0 -
I cannot blame the SNP for a single thing they have said or done. In fact there is a huge admiration for what they have achieved in pursuit of their dream. I wish them well at the GE and in the future.TheWatcher said:
Good.malcolmg said:
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.Flightpath1 said:
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.dyedwoolie said:
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UKbigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.
But never forget that their dream is to end the UK. For now they seem content to sit up north and suck the money and goodwill out of the English until the well is dry on both counts. Labour created the devolution monster for wholly self-serving partisan reasons which have now backfired in their face quite spectacularly. Devolution started a chain of events which can logically only end up in a fully federal UK or its splitting up. Either way the decision to give Scotland a separate polity implied that sooner or later England would need one too. That moment of England's self-realisation is going to be brought dramatically closer in 10 days' time. Cool!0 -
What excellent timing, Sir!Blue_rog said:0
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On the previous thread SeanT posted this twitter from Ipsos MORI
@benatipsosmori: Looking at all polls public and in progress I have to say Conservatives edging ahead now, esp given Scottish situation
Anyone else notice the two words "in progress". I wonder whether that's a hint tomorrow's national Ipsos MORI poll will also be showing the Conservatives ahead.0 -
I remember the good times when a MOE blip in a sequence of polls was the SNP in trouble.0
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Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?Pulpstar said:
Dumfries GallowayPong said:
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.Pulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE
E. Renfrewshire
Ed S
Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?
Dumferline West Fife
Rutherglen, Hamilton ?0 -
Yes, you abstain the QS, promise not to allow any substantive business through, and say you need to replace your leader before forcing a fresh General Election.Pulpstar said:
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?
Of course that is then the point where the SNP do a deal with the Tories...0 -
No Ipsos MORI national poll (Great Britain) this week?0
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This proposed whitewash is almost impossible. Orkney & Shetland is about as safe a seat as the LDs have, and I suspect they'll hold on to a couple more at least.
I wonder how much these polls will galvanise unionists to get out and vote? Or indeed get out and vote tactically?
Side note - given that SNP will only be voting on issues that affect Scotland, and given also that much of the constituency work typically carried out by MPs in England is carried out by MSPs in Scotland, will this be the least work-burdened bloc of MPs ever? Plenty of time to scheme and plot (or indeed read and go for walks).0 -
Assume Ben at mori tweet saying tories pulling ahead and referring to those in progress gives a clue for theirs due soon, has been covered here?0
-
I said it yesterday and I'll say it again today.
I'd like to see a Wales poll on the back of these SNP figures.
A lab to plaid swing, even a small one, could make a difference in some places.0 -
Ashcroft releasing 3 new polls today - Thanet South, South Swindon and Sheffield Hallam.0
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Yes, tomorrow....see my post.Sunil_Prasannan said:No Ipsos MORI national poll (Great Britain) this week?
0 -
Labour's ideal result is David Cameron on 300 seats.
Discuss.0 -
Is there a danger that a Miliband-led government will try to increase immigration again so as to improve their standing in England?TGOHF said:
Labour being reduced to the inner city ghetto party (England and Wales only).Stereotomy said:
And what part of that is good for Dave?SeanT said:Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
0 -
Abstaining the QS would probably be worse for SLAB's future prospects than anything elseTissue_Price said:
Yes, you abstain the QS, promise not to allow any substantive business through, and say you need to replace your leader before forcing a fresh General Election.Pulpstar said:
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?
Of course that is then the point where the SNP do a deal with the Tories...0 -
Lord a incoming on thanet and hallam. Excitement overload0
-
You dunderheid, there is no English parliament , so you think ostracising all UK Non English elected MP's is democracy. You are a bigger cretin than I gave you credit for. You obviously have no clue as to how money is spent in the UK either , just an all round nasty bitter twisted Little Englander. If only we got equality and our own money to spend rather than subsidising you.Philip_Thompson said:
You really are stupid if you think we care.malcolmg said:
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.Flightpath1 said:
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences.dyedwoolie said:
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UKbigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
It was the Scots who voted to stay in, we never voted to keep you. The Scots should put up or shut up. The Scots deserve full equality - that means no voting on English-only matters, just as the English can't vote on Scottish-only matters. The Barnett formula should be scrapped too and an equal amount spent on Scots as is spent on the English.
If you want that, fine. If you don't, fine. But there's no reason for us to bend over backwards to keep you in if you want out.0 -
''Is there a danger that a Miliband-led government will try to increase immigration again so as to improve their standing in England?''
It isn;t a danger its a certainty.
A point I'm sure UKIP is making in the Labour Northern strongholds.
What Ed Miliband is facing here is the threat of meltdown. He is like a rabbit in the headlights.0 -
When you're on 0-3 seats you need to be more worried about England.Stereotomy said:
Abstaining the QS would probably be worse for SLAB's future prospects than anything elseTissue_Price said:
Yes, you abstain the QS, promise not to allow any substantive business through, and say you need to replace your leader before forcing a fresh General Election.Pulpstar said:
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?
Of course that is then the point where the SNP do a deal with the Tories...0 -
Labour are rubbish at regicide, if Miliband can find a plausible way to become PM he will.YBarddCwsc said:
What is better? Choice 2 is surely easier than Choice 1.Artist said:The choice for Labour if no one can form a government is a difficult one.
Choice 1: cobble together an anti-Tory alliance, have a year of Miliband trying to look Prime Ministerial, hope the Conservatives pick someone further to the right like Hammond or May and go back to the polls looking for a full mandate.
Choice 2: go into opposition, elect a more popular leader, highlight the fact that the SNP surge counter-productively led to a Tory government and go into the second election as a fresh choice compared to Cameron.
Choice 1 requires the minor parties in the anti-Tory alliance to behave, Miliband to handle a awkward coalition with skill, no international disasters like Grexit over the year, and the Tories to make a colossal mistake on the leadership.
Choice 2 simply requires Labour not to make a colossal mistake on the leadership.
No-one can turn down government if they have a workable opportunity to.0 -
Hallam very close unless Tory vote collapses methinksScrapheap_as_was said:Lord a incoming on thanet and hallam. Excitement overload
0 -
Miliband has ELAB to consider on this too.Stereotomy said:
Abstaining the QS would probably be worse for SLAB's future prospects than anything elseTissue_Price said:
Yes, you abstain the QS, promise not to allow any substantive business through, and say you need to replace your leader before forcing a fresh General Election.Pulpstar said:
Abstaining a Tory Queen's speech probably signs the death warrant of Labour in Scotland too - and could cause a big Green/Plaid surge (Or the return of the Lib Dems) in England/Wales too.SeanT said:
Yeah. Labour losing all 41 MPs is "bad" for Dave.Stereotomy said:
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.Casino_Royale said:
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.bigjohnowls said:So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Right.
If Davie is 20-30 seats ahead in the commons, he will be the next PM. Perhaps not for long, but he will. I do not believe Miliband would risk the ire of English voters, by siding with the separatists, to deny the electoral will of England.
Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
How many Labourites have grasped these basic truths? Not many on here, it seems.
Are there any good choices for Labour out of this ?
At all ?
Of course that is then the point where the SNP do a deal with the Tories...
I'm no Nostradamus so I've hedged my bets on Dave, Ed and the different likely shades of Gov't.0 -
Excellent stuff, Casino! Many thanks.Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/0 -
A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).RobC said:
Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?Pulpstar said:
Dumfries GallowayPong said:
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.Pulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE
E. Renfrewshire
Ed S
Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?
Dumferline West Fife
Rutherglen, Hamilton ?0 -
Labour's numbers in Scotland are so appalling it's difficult to parse the magnitude of what they represent.0
-
Tomorrow I think SunilSunil_Prasannan said:No Ipsos MORI national poll (Great Britain) this week?
0 -
South Swindon could be a good indication of how things are going as it was tied in both polls previously.
0 -
Great analysis from Casino Royale
Agree with almost all written - my only slight disagreement is that a tory majority is ruled out.
Granted it's a long shot but if the following happens, I wouldn't rule it out: -
1) Telephone polls prove more accurate than online polls
2) SNP perceived threat to England continues to attract Tory switchers.
3) Labour apathy - the amount of people that are interviewed on the radio that say they have voted Labour previously, but are not engaged any longer is amazing.
4) Registration - lack of registration affects turnover - likely to harm Labour more than tories I suspect.0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Assume Ben at mori tweet saying tories pulling ahead and referring to those in progress gives a clue for theirs due soon, has been covered here?
John o is there alreadyScrapheap_as_was said:Assume Ben at mori tweet saying tories pulling ahead and referring to those in progress gives a clue for theirs due soon, has been covered here?
0 -
BTW, Ipsos MORI doesn't have a hyphen!
(Didn't I say this a couple of weeks ago??)
0 -
Something else to knock the politics down the news agenda? Still a Royal baby and a bank holiday weekend to come in the 7 days left after today...Blue_rog said:0 -
I think it might only make a difference in Ynys Mon. Though it would ensure Arfon is safe.taffys said:I said it yesterday and I'll say it again today.
I'd like to see a Wales poll on the back of these SNP figures.
A lab to plaid swing, even a small one, could make a difference in some places.
If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.0 -
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived asStereotomy said:What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
i) gutless
ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...0 -
Mentioned by SeanT on the previous thread, but then the Scottish poll came out....Scrapheap_as_was said:Assume Ben at mori tweet saying tories pulling ahead and referring to those in progress gives a clue for theirs due soon, has been covered here?
0 -
This poll represents a 28% swing across the whole of Scotland. We know the swing is likely to be bigger in the West of Scotland. Dougie can only resist a 20 pt swing. The Ashcroft polls point to a 25 pt swing, it was polled before and after Mhairi got the gig, she has been reasonably high profile on the news and so forth... Con and Lib Dem add through to 8% remainder in his seat.RobC said:
Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
He is toast.0 -
What's the biggest safe seat overturn?Anorak said:
A chance maybe, but a slim one. Mhairi Black is sweeping all before her (and good for her!).RobC said:
Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?Pulpstar said:
Dumfries GallowayPong said:
We could have a PB competition, predict SLAB's best performance with a tie breaker on who comes closest to the actual majority %.Pulpstar said:
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.dyedwoolie said:
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.Pulpstar said:
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.dyedwoolie said:
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamicPulpstar said:
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.TGOHF said:Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..Alistair said:
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.TGOHF said:Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
I'd have the top contenders down as;
Glasgow NE
E. Renfrewshire
Ed S
Aberdeen S
Any I'm missing?
Dumferline West Fife
Rutherglen, Hamilton ?0 -
If there is a Lab to PC swing, it might, just might, tip Gower to the Tories, as the Welsh speaking areas are predominantly Labour areas in that seat.
And could maybe make a difference in the ultra marginal the tories are defending in Cardiff? And help the tories in Brecon and Radnor?0 -
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I've always meant to ask - did your home burn down or are you into arson?!Razedabode said:
Mentioned by SeanT on the previous thread, but then the Scottish poll came out....Scrapheap_as_was said:Assume Ben at mori tweet saying tories pulling ahead and referring to those in progress gives a clue for theirs due soon, has been covered here?
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Any hope of a unionist 'buffer' along the border?
Mundell to hold on, Moore to hold on in Berwickshire (or Lamont to take it, as Alex Massie seems to predict: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/this-is-a-narrow-cast-election-not-a-national-contest/), and Russell Brown in Dumfries.0 -
There is nothing undemocratic about MPs for English seats representing the constituents that elected them.malcolmg said:
Another one that does not like democracy, the sooner they get EVEL through and start winding up the UK the better.JEO said:
They can legitimately vote for whoever they want. But it is the responsibility of the other parties not to be blackmailed by a party that wishes to destroy the UK. The other parties should get together to pass English votes for English laws and form a government that can pass bills in England. There is no reason that England should lack a government because the Scots are playing silly buggers.isam said:
Fair enough, though then the choice was that or Major... Now they have rumbled if they want a big voice in the union the vote no and vote SNP... Who can argue it works?JEO said:
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.isam said:
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote forMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.0 -
Who'd be left to lead SLAB?Pulpstar said:
This poll represents a 28% swing across the whole of Scotland. We know the swing is likely to be bigger in the West of Scotland. Dougie can only resist a 20 pt swing. The Ashcroft polls point to a 25 pt swing, it was polled before and after Mhairi got the gig, she has been reasonably high profile on the news and so forth... Con and Lib Dem add through to 8% remainder in his seat.RobC said:
Which seat is Dougie Alexander and his 17000 majority? Apparently he's standing against a 20 yr old student. Must have a chance surely?
He is toast.0 -
Surely this SNP hegemony can't be good; even for them. Living almost as far from Scotland as geographically possible in this country makes me also far removed from the vibe on the ground. @the scottish PBers. Is there an Obamaesque "yes we can" style wave rushing over the highlands and lowlands where the voice for change is crowding out all others? Or is this groupthink somehow more unspoken and almost unrecognised? Does the SNP think that a clean sweep is good for politics in Scotland? Everything has consequences...0
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Yeah, if Labour were significantly behind this would likely be the case. If it was closer, I'm not so sure. I think in England Labour would get credit for not doing a deal with the SNP if that was clearly an option.RodCrosby said:
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived asStereotomy said:What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
i) gutless
ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...0 -
UKIP would be smiling.JEO said:
Is there a danger that a Miliband-led government will try to increase immigration again so as to improve their standing in England?TGOHF said:
Labour being reduced to the inner city ghetto party (England and Wales only).Stereotomy said:
And what part of that is good for Dave?SeanT said:Of course Miliband might do that, nonetheless, in which case he will have signed the death warrant of Labour in Scotland, as no Scots will ever see a need to vote Labour again, knowing that they get a Labour government anyway if they vote SNP, only its a Labour govt in hock to Scotland.
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Indeed... you don't get invited to form a government, and then go....nah, don't fancy that.RodCrosby said:
Problem with that is Labour would be perceived asStereotomy said:What about the scenario where Labour join the SNP in voting down a Tory queen speech, but then decline to form a government themselves. That would lead to a second election, right? One in which the SNP's "vote us, you'll still get Labour" argument would be diminished, and the Tories' "vote Labour, you'll get SNP" will be dead.
i) gutless
ii) wreckers, trying to force a re-run of an election they had just lost
I would go so far as to say the Constitution expects the Leader of the Opposition to step up to the plate in such a scenario, or not bother bringing down the government...
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323 would be even better as he would then be at the mercy of his backbenchers, who would not allow him to form a coalition. 300 implies a renewal of the Lib/Con coalition, the most stable of all realistically possible outcomes.Pulpstar said:Labour's ideal result is David Cameron on 300 seats.
Discuss.
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My pleasure, Sunil. Thank you.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Excellent stuff, Casino! Many thanks.Casino_Royale said:My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
Thank you to Topping also.0 -
Depends how many Lib dems left!!PeterC said:
323 would be even better as he would then be at the mercy of his backbenchers, who would not allow him to form a coalition. 300 implies a renewal of the Lib/Con coalition, the most stable of all realistically possible outcomes and a straight Labour defeat.Pulpstar said:Labour's ideal result is David Cameron on 300 seats.
Discuss.
This election will utterly wreck any chance of stable government for a while.0 -
Haven't had to post this since 1580.....
Activate the Reivers!0 -
Who'd be left to lead SLAB?
I don't know anything about Scottish politics, but it seems to me the unionists will have to at least try to unite on some level.0
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