Undefined discussion subject.

I feel we're living in 'interesting times'. We probably deserve it .

Alistair said:

Does anyone have a decent stash of "Certain To Vote" figures from the Indy Ref. Trying to get a line on Scotland Turnout

Voter registration up over 4000 in North and Leith is another pointer to the surge being utterly real imo.

Richard_Nabavi said:

There is not going to be a grand coalition under any circumstances. It is inconceivable in the UK parliamentary system. Quite apart from anything else, why on earth would either party want it?

What we might see is a 'grand confidence and supply', but even that is highly unlikely. More likely would be an informal arrangement where one of the two big parties decided to abstain on a confidence vote in order temporarily to keep the other in as a minority government. They would do this if they thought it was better, from a purely party-political viewpoint, to let things fester for a bit, heaping unpopularity on the poor saps trying to hold things together. They might also do this if they thought they needed more time themselves before provoking an election - for example, because funds were short or if they wanted to change leader first.

But a grand coalition is for the birds.

Yes: see Spain for exactly how this might work.

There the presence of regional (Basque, Catalan) parties has meant that the (historic) big two parties only very rarely got absolute majorities. Rather than be blackmailed at the mercy of regional parties to form a government, there was a gentleman's agreement between the big parties to allow the largest party to form a minority government.

Of course, to pass laws required a degree of compromise with smaller parties, or required individual representatives to be willing to ignore their party bosses, but - by and large - the system worked fairly well.

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Does anyone have a decent stash of "Certain To Vote" figures from the Indy Ref. Trying to get a line on Scotland Turnout

Voter registration up over 4000 in North and Leith is another pointer to the surge being utterly real imo.

The Leith part of North and Leith is so nailed on as SNP vote that I would be astounded if the North could overwhelm it with enough Lab vote.

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another poll showing Scottish Labour getting the dockside hooker treatment.

As a Unionist, I'm worried about these rebellious Scots.

Can't someone come up with a strategy to crush Scottish Nationalism stone dead

I think Dave has done a tremendous job of stirring up Scottish nationalism with the Salmond pickpocket posters and remarks. It might well be good for our bank balances, and his electoral chances - but you need look no further if Scotland decides to go independent before 2024 say. He's probably tipped the remaining 5 or 6 % over the line.

I can't understand the Scots not taking to Ed.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There is not going to be a grand coalition under any circumstances. It is inconceivable in the UK parliamentary system. Quite apart from anything else, why on earth would either party want it?

What we might see is a 'grand confidence and supply', but even that is highly unlikely. More likely would be an informal arrangement where one of the two big parties decided to abstain on a confidence vote in order temporarily to keep the other in as a minority government. They would do this if they thought it was better, from a purely party-political viewpoint, to let things fester for a bit, heaping unpopularity on the poor saps trying to hold things together. They might also do this if they thought they needed more time themselves before provoking an election - for example, because funds were short or if they wanted to change leader first.

But a grand coalition is for the birds.

Yes: see Spain for exactly how this might work.

There the presence of regional (Basque, Catalan) parties has meant that the (historic) big two parties only very rarely got absolute majorities. Rather than be blackmailed at the mercy of regional parties to form a government, there was a gentleman's agreement between the big parties to allow the largest party to form a minority government.

Of course, to pass laws required a degree of compromise with smaller parties, or required individual representatives to be willing to ignore their party bosses, but - by and large - the system worked fairly well.

Interesting, hadn't thought about how things work in Spain even though I used to live there!
Maybe the arrangement ends up being less formal than an actual coalition between the big two, but as it's a new situation I can't imagine abstentions being seen as anything but negative "You let the evil other lot get away with X" by the press and other parties to the left and right of Lab and Con respectively.

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

He was only resigning if there had been a Yes vote. Betting on him was a Yes proxy.

Wasn't there a thought that Orkney and Shetland would want independence from Scotland if Scotland got independence from the UK?

Is anyone offering a spread on the UKIP-LibDem vote differential?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.

The tosser

The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.

I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.

Does anyone have estimated Yes vote by constituency in a table?

JEO said:

As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.

There have been cases before where the party with the largest number of votes didn't win the largest number of seats. Lib Dems have been getting a fraction of their percentage in votes as seats for decades. What's changed?

BenM said:

Scotland has utterly dominated this campaign.

Yes. One side-effect of that has been to prevent UKIP getting any momentum going. I imagine they were hoping to use the debates as lever to get favourable headlines about Farage trouncing LibLabCon, and the papers to be running stories speculating about many gains they could make. Instead Nicola has grabbed the limelight, and UKIP have been shoved out of the news.

logical_song said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

He was only resigning if there had been a Yes vote. Betting on him was a Yes proxy.

Wasn't there a thought that Orkney and Shetland would want independence from Scotland if Scotland got independence from the UK?

Not a serious one..

Tissue_Price said:

Does anyone have estimated Yes vote by constituency in a table?

Yes, @Tissue_Price check out my SMAPS.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sAVzqjn9iA10c1wVlAwCiR0ycue0P83ixV-Zsak3ufs/edit?usp=sharing

Column S.

It is very, very approximate - I tended towards largest council area determining the Constituency Yes vote.

logical_song said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

He was only resigning if there had been a Yes vote. Betting on him was a Yes proxy.

Wasn't there a thought that Orkney and Shetland would want independence from Scotland if Scotland got independence from the UK?

It was just bollox unionist guff

MikeK said:

FTP.
PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 2h2 hours ago
65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says
http://polho.me/1QI5jhL

Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.

Although the number peaked between 2005 and 2009 at 89% (!). Assuming constant household formation (which is obviously a ridiculous assumption), that means that between 2009 and 2014, just 31% of were headed by a foreign national.

Of course, what does "headed" mean? Does it mean that the "Dad" was a foreign national? Is it a net number - or gross?

logical_song said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

He was only resigning if there had been a Yes vote. Betting on him was a Yes proxy.

Wasn't there a thought that Orkney and Shetland would want independence from Scotland if Scotland got independence from the UK?

Yes and it is highly likely that the would link with Noway and Iceland and take most of the oil reserves with them.

rcs1000 said:

JEO said:

As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.

In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.

In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.

I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.

They will do the opposite: sit down onto their sofas, curse, stick two fingers up at Westminster, and not bother voting instead.

malcolmg said:

JEO said:

As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.

Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.

Yes I agree

Scotland ruled by Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron for 36 years, often against the will of their population... If the SNP hold the whip hand over us Southern Englishmen we will know how it feels

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Does anyone have estimated Yes vote by constituency in a table?

Yes, @Tissue_Price check out my SMAPS.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sAVzqjn9iA10c1wVlAwCiR0ycue0P83ixV-Zsak3ufs/edit?usp=sharing

Column S.

It is very, very approximate - I tended towards largest council area determining the Constituency Yes vote.

Thank you Alistair.

Plato said:

Hell Yes!

SandyRentool said:

Plato said:

Second Coming

Lucky girl!

That shows a distinct lack of stamina. ;-)

MikeK said:

With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.

The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.

The tosser

The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.

I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.

Yes, I got that wrong. Nicola managed to brush it off. The gal is a class act.

On topic, I agree with antifrank: it requires an awfully large act of faith to believe that all these polls, using different methodologies and backed up by Lord Ashcroft's individual constituency polls, are so far out that Scottish Labour can have any hope at all. What's more it makes sense - it really is hard to see the point of voting for Scottish Labour, given that the SNP have positioned themselves as truer to Labour's tradition than Labour is.

I don't believe the staws that some in Labour are clutching at: neither 'shy unionists' nor tactical votes for Labour will save them.

In contrast, popular LibDem incumbents in Scotland will, I think, get some tactical votes from Conservatives and perhaps some Labour unionists, but the SNP tsunami is going to be so powerful that it will sweep all, or nearly all, before it.

Financier said:

logical_song said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

He was only resigning if there had been a Yes vote. Betting on him was a Yes proxy.

Wasn't there a thought that Orkney and Shetland would want independence from Scotland if Scotland got independence from the UK?

Yes and it is highly likely that the would link with Noway and Iceland and take most of the oil reserves with them.

Dear Dear , that is just jaw dropping , how could someone claiming to be a "Financier" post something so patently stupid.

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

For now I've abandoned the idea of laying off my heavy bets on the SNP in Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

Do you wish to share what odds you got on at?

Oh I came late to the party on that seat, so nothing ridiculous. I think the longest odds were around the 3/1 mark.

trueblue

" I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin."

your expectations have a chance, just a chance, of being met but only if you define underachieving as polling over 40% and winning over 40 seats.

I think the bigger swings in Kirkcaldy and Edinburgh SW are due to 2 very high profile incumbents standing down too.

trublue said:

SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.

LOL, real bollox from deepest Surrey, come on Avery up your game.

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

With an attitude like that ("he lost me money so sack him") I'm surprised you're not a Tory

All the polling evidence (from multiple different pollsters) at present suggests that the SNP vote share is increasing and that their lead over Labour is widening. As Richard Nabavi says, why should we disbelieve the pollsters?

Those of us who have sold Scottish turnout on the spreads should also feel cheerful. It's going to be harder for either side to motivate their voters to turn out for what looks likely to be a landslide. That was one reason why turnout in Britain as a whole was lower in 1997 than in 1992, even when the government changed hands.

malcolmg said:

trublue said:

SNP won't win every seat by a long shot. Unionists face unprecedented intimidation in Scotland, and thus are terrified of revealing their opposition to the SNP. I fully expect Scotland polling to prove to be remarkably wrong and to be the highlight of the election when the SNP underachieves by a very significant margin.

LOL, real bollox from deepest Surrey, come on Avery up your game.

Have the SNP recruited Luftur Rahman and his mates to cover polling stations?

malcolmg said:

MikeK said:

With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.

The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.

Yes, there is a massive gap in the market for a right wing Scottish party. Either a renamed Tory breakaway (if the Tories are sensible) or a brand new party. Even a well-disguised UKIP offshoot would work if it was done very well and certain people were kept away from it *cough*David Coburn*cough*.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

With an attitude like that ("he lost me money so sack him") I'm surprised you're not a Tory

I'll never vote for the muppets of Labour, I think the Lib Dems are an utterly directionless irrelevance, and am half tempted by UKIP - though I don't think calling the SNP racist is particularly helpful. The Salmond posters of the Conservative campaign are a disgrace and noone else is standing in my constituency.

Within MoE of ScotTory and ScotLab crossover?! Lmao, Skeletor, what have you done?!

This all means we are doubting the veracity of JackW's ARSE.

FPT. Mike S - very good interview on polling matters. I really enjoyed it. Particularly the trip down memory lane on the formation of pb.com and all that "Kerry" stuff!

I also listened with great interest to your points on the representativeness of the online polling panels, and the issues around randomness in the phone polls. Food for thought.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, now I know you're being a tinker.

Gordon Brown was many things, but a token he was not.

From his own mouth he was "North British" and would stoop to anything in his lust for power, not a good example I am afraid.

Plato said:

Great bit of archeology there. *titters*

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Wipe out of SLAB and SLD in Scotland. A just reward. As you sow so shall you reap.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1989
"A Claim of Right for Scotland was a document crafted by the Campaign for a Scottish Assembly in 1988, declaring the sovereignty of the Scottish people. It was signed by all then-serving Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs"

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Pulpstar said:

Carmichael going will add £40 to the winnings too, via SNP seatspotting (He surely is the very last SNP seat to go in Scotland)

He adds £25 to my profit as I have a fiver on the SNP there.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.

And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.

The tosser

The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.

I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.

I also blame Antifrank.

He thought about it on that thread.

I think about lots of things. Mostly rubbish, to be honest.

I still have an open buy position on the SNP at 20.5 (and for full disclosure, I have recently sold Labour at 8 on the inflammatorily named Scottish regional market). That price on Scottish Labour is still available, somewhat to my surprise given the recent slew of polls.