politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this

Flightpath said:

Artist said:

If no one can form a government I think both parties would be happy for the Conservatives to run a minority government until a second election. This is because the Conservatives would want Cameron to fight the second election, whilst Labour would want a new leader.

A minority Tory gov would permit a refreshed and balanced and all Tory cabinet including Boris. It would be well placed to fight a fresh election. The economy would continue and the autumn brings effectively another budget.

I sense that EdM is an intellectually vain and stubborn man. In the deadlocked scenario I doubt he would depart willingly. To expect Boris to be an MP, cabinet minister and mayor at the same time would be asking a great deal.

macisback said:

antifrank said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).

But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.

If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.

Regional variances will be key, Tories should go well in the East Midlands but may really struggle in the North West. Nick in spite of the impression he gives on here has a tough fight, he should just win but Soubry has something extra about her that could pull those undecided voters.

Deep seated hatred of both the SNP and UKIP !

Tissue_Price said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?

He is a transvestite comedian. Very funny: it's a pity his politics are so tedious.

As is his comedy unfortunately

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.

How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?

I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?

Mr. Thompson, if you don't mind a view from me, I would say that UKIP has to be a long game. It has been going on for quite a long time already. However, in terms of having a serious effect the number of MPs is but one measure and possibly not the most important.

Some years ago Cameron was happy to write off UKIP supporters as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". He is not using that sort of language anymore and in terms of policy he has moved, if not towards then at least acknowledging, the position UKIP espouses. Labour has done the same with its more recent acceptance that immigration is actually an issue that they have to address. In short UKIP is already having a significant effect.

That said, it is a very long way from achieving its aims and needs to get its act together far more than it has been able to so far. More MPs cannot but help that process as they will attract money necessary to get to a more polished standard and reduce the shy UKIP effect. If the Party gets 6 MPs this time it will have done stunningly well, three will give it a solid platform to build on (providing there are maybe 20 good second places), less than that should trigger a serious re-think, but will not be the end.

UKIP is I think morphing into the party of the ordinary little people, moving onto the space vacated by Labour and, as far as the SME/entrepreneur class goes, the Consrevatives. If, and its still a big if, it can do that successfully it will grow and succeed big time because none of the major parties speak for or care about that sector of the population.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently nearly 500k people registered to vote yesterday. Well 500k applications ;-) ...vote early, vote often.

I registered just to be safe but cards arrived today so I presume I was already covered.

edmundintokyo said:

Carnyx said:

JEO said:

Nemtynakht said:

BenM said:

Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.

Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.

Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.

Are Labour retaliating with the likely Tory dependence on the DUP? Iain Macwhirter points out tha t in general there is no discussion of "them holding David Cameron to ransom".

https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/590445270237900801

"Terrible things will happen if my opponent doesn't get enough votes" is an epicly crap political argument so it's not obvious that Labour should be trying to think up their own version of it. Also Labour may end up wanting to cut a deal with the DUP themselves.

But as Albert Steptoe might say, 'I've got the knobs on my side'. The SNP can choose labour's programme.

In 2014 the NHS employed 150,273 doctors. There were 32,467 additional doctors employed in the NHS in 2014 compared to 2004. The number has increased by an annual average of 2.5 per cent over that time.

So we need about 3200 more doctors each year to stand still (or even go backwards)

How many new ones are Labour promising to save the NHS?

Pulpstar said:

Do we have numbers on the registered electorate compared to 2010 now ?

A document with electorates for 2010 to 2014 inclusive for England is available to download on this page. Go to "Providing Data" and click on "Electorates 2014":

http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-in-the-bce/

Given up, really?!!

Tony Blair was always careful to ensure middle England remained asleep when he was campaigning.

I rather fear Ed Miliband has awoken the beast.

DavidL said:

geoffw said:

fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."

yup.
Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.

Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.

I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.

However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.

As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.

But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.

It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.

Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.

lolandol said:

Given up, really?!!

Team2015 are going to Broxtowe from St Pancras on Saturday, can you join us? http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl
Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon launched her manifesto for the Scottish National Party. It was a ransom note, a demand for £148 billion more borrowing, with the burden falling heavily on working people in England and Wales. Her key point was very simple. She said: Labour are going to be absolutely crushed in Scotland – meaning Ed Miliband cannot get into Downing Street unless he does a deal with her and the Scottish Nationalists.
And she was clear about something else too: the price tag.
You would pay the price for a Labour-SNP deal, with higher taxes and less financial security.
I don't want to see my children forced to grow up in a broken up, divided United Kingdom, where our Union with Scotland has been ripped apart. And I don’t want our Government to rack up more debts than future generations can ever hope to repay. This would be calamitous for our country. We have to stop it.
Help us to stop that disaster and to secure a brighter future for our country, with a proper Conservative majority.
Join Team2015 in Broxtowe this Saturday. We will be meeting at St Pancras Station at 9.45am before heading down: http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl
We are fighting – street by street – for Britain’s heart and soul. Don’t stand on the sidelines. Let’s give this everything we’ve got.

Nothing but a bunch of fan**es, get back to playing with your dolls. Hope your train breaks down.

So much more natural and believable than Dave.

Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.

He is absolutely 100% correct.

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.

This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.

Deal, or no deal?

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

geoffw said:

fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."

yup.
Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.

Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.

I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.

However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.

As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.

But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.

It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.

Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.

Thanks Malcolm. I knew I was on the right track.

One day the SNP will learn that that is no way to speak about 20% of their fellow countrymen but I am not holding my breath.

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

John Major: the best PM since 1990. Presided over the highest economic growth rate since then of 4% in 1994.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.

They are fighting an election on the opposition turf.”

Boll8cks. Labour are in this position because they are contemplating a coalition with the SNP. Indeed, in some respects ed might prefer such a coalition to a labour majority.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

FalseFlag said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.

Seems that spinners and trollers are impressed by spin and troll. Who knew?

FalseFlag said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.

David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.

LOL.

(It seems TSE and I are in agreement on this one)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Just look at his resignation as Shadow Home Secretary and MP.

There is someone temperamentally unsuited to lead a conga line let alone the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

geoffw said:

fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."

yup.
Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.

Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.

I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.

However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.

As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.

But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.

It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.

Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.

Thanks Malcolm. I knew I was on the right track.

One day the SNP will learn that that is no way to speak about 20% of their fellow countrymen but I am not holding my breath.

David, Better than trampling 85% like the Tories do , I notice you are anticipating a surge with your estimate of Tories.

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1 min1 minute ago

Miliband on Cameron. "he is demeaning himself. He is demeaning his office. He will say anything and stop at nothing."

Miliband rattled.....

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008

QED

He got re-elected!

JosiasJessop said:

FalseFlag said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.

David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.

LOL.

(It seems TSE and I are in agreement on this one)

Both of you are LibDem (voter)s

malcolmg said:

taffys said:

So much more natural and believable than Dave.

Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.

He is absolutely 100% correct.

Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.

For UK laws.

For English laws it can not be right that foreign MPs not standing in England are setting devolved laws for England. You can not defend the indefensible.

EDIT: The funny thing is that the SNP used to be honourable and abstain on English-only laws, it was only Labour who did the indefensible.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008

QED

He got re-elected!

But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.

Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008

QED

He got re-elected!

But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.

Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.

Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

FalseFlag said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.

David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.

LOL.

(It seems TSE and I are in agreement on this one)

Both of you are LibDem (voter)s

I've voted Green in the past as well. Somehow I don't think I will be at this GE. ;-)

I'm still unsure whether Conservative or Lib Dem. The latter's raised his game, despite some unfortunately spelling mistakes on his leaflet. The Labour candidate is utterly hopeless.

(It turns out the libDem and Mrs J attend the same gym, although they've never met).

malcolmg said:

taffys said:

So much more natural and believable than Dave.

Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.

He is absolutely 100% correct.

Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.

Malcolm, is the Ayrshire soil good for turnip planting in spring ?

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

Maybe Dave should pork one of the cabinet.

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

taffys said:

So much more natural and believable than Dave.

Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.

He is absolutely 100% correct.

Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.

For UK laws.

For English laws it can not be right that foreign MPs not standing in England are setting devolved laws for England. You can not defend the indefensible.

.

Tssk - if only the Scots hadn't been scare-mongered into voting No, eh?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.

I'd vote for Major over any current leader.

And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.

Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.

I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008

QED

He got re-elected!

But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.

Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.

Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?

Did he? How so?

They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.

David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.

Dair said:

Casino_Royale said:

@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.

This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.

Deal, or no deal?

Your backtrack is quite phenomenal. Typical of the shell that is Unionism - it doesn't even believe in itself.

The bet is that the UK wide unionist parties that adopt a common position across the UK on the union outpoll the SNP.

This is the year of the SNP. As strident Scottish nationalist, who believes your fellow Scots share your cause, surely you are confident that the SNP will get more votes than that lot? Say.. 47% to 46%?

Mr. Thompson, precisely, and that's why it's the right line for the Conservatives.

Imagine for a moment the SNP voting on English only laws, such as education.

Laws the majority of English MPs opposed. And doing it routinely because labour needed them.

No matter how the numbers add up, how long is a government like that is sustainable?

It just isn;t, for me.

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.

I'd vote for Major over any current leader.

And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.

Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.

I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.

This will be remembered as the best government, bar Maggie, for half a century past, and I would strongly expect for many years to come.

However, that wasn't really my point - my point was that what people are saying about John Major now bears absolutely no connection whatsoever to what people said about him when he was actually PM.

Slackbladder said:

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1 min1 minute ago

Miliband on Cameron. "he is demeaning himself. He is demeaning his office. He will say anything and stop at nothing."

Miliband rattled.....

The whole of Labour are completely rattled by this line, they know it plays well in the Midlands marginals and with wavering UKIP/Con voters.

Yet all Miliband has to do to diffuse it is to say he won't deal with the SNP. Would you, Ed?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.

David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.

David Davis would have been a disaster as Tory leader.

"Citation needed"

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008

QED

He got re-elected!

But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.

Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.

Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?

Did he? How so?

They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.

David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.

So an Old Etonian posho prevented a working class lad becoming Tory leader. Nice!

The inverse happened in 1990.

In the Tory party, we're not interested in class*, we just care if you're good enough.

*Except when we use to our advantage.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.

I'd vote for Major over any current leader.

And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.

Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.

I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.

This will be remembered as the best government, bar Maggie, for half a century past, and I would strongly expect for many years to come.

However, that wasn't really my point - my point was that what people are saying about John Major now bears absolutely no connection whatsoever to what people said about him when he was actually PM.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree.

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on

It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now

So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time

I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010

I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.

1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP.
2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out.
3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.

Well it would be boring if everyone agreed wouldn't it?

I think a losing EU referendum would get Ukip many more seats in the following GE. Seems obvious and we have a precedent, but feel free to disagree

There's more than one precedent here. For years the major policy of the Lib Dems was voting reform. A voting reform (AV) referendum has not exactly led to a Lib Dem surge has it?

Keith Vaz!

He should have put the endorsement of Ed Miliband or Gordon Brown on his leaflet.

Pulpstar said:

Anyone else reckon Portillo and Johnson are utterly wasted on "This Week" ? - both would be doing a better job I reckon than the current pair !

Not so much Abbott

Portillo likes trains, so he would get my vote

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.

Let's just stick with that.

Fair enough.

taffys said:

Mr. Thompson, precisely, and that's why it's the right line for the Conservatives.

Imagine for a moment the SNP voting on English only laws, such as education.

Laws the majority of English MPs opposed. And doing it routinely because labour needed them.

No matter how the numbers add up, how long is a government like that is sustainable?

It just isn;t, for me.

How long would such a government last? Probably five years, unless the by-elections killed its majority. Remember we have a system of elected dictatorship, the tyranny of the minority, and a PM can do anything as long as his or her MPs stay loyal.

Mr. Punter, good to hear.

Still unsure how I'll follow the election. May be online, maybe I'll opt for the TV.

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

OT (probably) .We all have our own weathervanes. Unfortunately my two have just told me they are voting Tory. One because of 33 hours child benefit the other (ludicrously) because changing government is too disruptive!!

I've just put some money on the Tories getting between 300-325 seats so at least i'll be able to drown my sorrows with a reasonable bottle.

There could of corse be a game changer but it's difficult to see what.

PS 'Shy Tories' are a thing of the past

There is no evidence of that so far. It is still deeply "uncool" to vote Conservative and while that remains the shy Tory effect will remain.

One of the interesting results from the latest ICM is that Conservative 2010 voters are less likely to answer don't know/refused than Labour 2010 voters (both are well behind 2010 Lib Dems, the figures are 12%, 17% and 30%).

So that evidence suggests that Tory voters are less shy than Labour voters, who are presumably wary of admitting to voting for Miliband. This isn't the sort of result you'd expect for an opposition about to turf out the incumbent government.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Punter, hope you're recuperating well.

Very well, Morris, and thank you (and others) for your kind words, but I must confess that Rehab is actually code for a small place in the Cotswolds to which I and a special friend repair when in need of respite from The Smoke. It is delightful, not least because of a lack of telecommunications, but not the kind of retreat I may have conjured up in people's minds!

Apologies.

I was starting to feel guilty about assuming that you were joking. You might even have gotten a response from me before 5pm at the rate everyone else was going...