Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
It's kind of what I hope for but the other way round. It's going to be the 'after you' election.
Indeed, the "After You" election.
My other idea for the same scenario was a 6 month Grand Coalition agreement between Con and Lab, led by the leader of the largest party and involving a bunch of constitutional stuff like EV4EL, boundary changes, Royal Commissions on HoL reform, Barnet formula etc, then back to the People in the autumn.
Miliband would have to deal with no changes in taxes and benefits for six months at the expense of not having to deal with the SNP. It's even plausible that Cameron and Miliband might both resign their party leaderships to allow fresh faces for the Autumn and move political debate away from what the interim Government is doing...
The problem with that list from a Grand Coalition point of view is that there's basically nothing there Labour want, so aside from all the other problems they'd have to have cornflakes for brains to go for it. But maybe they could cooperate on some kind of "Screw the SNP" constitutional change like bringing in PR, but gradually, ie by starting in Scotland then leaving it there for a hundred years or so to see how they get on.
If no one can form a government I think both parties would be happy for the Conservatives to run a minority government until a second election. This is because the Conservatives would want Cameron to fight the second election, whilst Labour would want a new leader.
A minority Tory gov would permit a refreshed and balanced and all Tory cabinet including Boris. It would be well placed to fight a fresh election. The economy would continue and the autumn brings effectively another budget.
I sense that EdM is an intellectually vain and stubborn man. In the deadlocked scenario I doubt he would depart willingly. To expect Boris to be an MP, cabinet minister and mayor at the same time would be asking a great deal.
WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.
If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.
Regional variances will be key, Tories should go well in the East Midlands but may really struggle in the North West. Nick in spite of the impression he gives on here has a tough fight, he should just win but Soubry has something extra about her that could pull those undecided voters.
could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?
He is a transvestite comedian. Very funny: it's a pity his politics are so tedious.
I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?
Mr. Thompson, if you don't mind a view from me, I would say that UKIP has to be a long game. It has been going on for quite a long time already. However, in terms of having a serious effect the number of MPs is but one measure and possibly not the most important.
Some years ago Cameron was happy to write off UKIP supporters as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". He is not using that sort of language anymore and in terms of policy he has moved, if not towards then at least acknowledging, the position UKIP espouses. Labour has done the same with its more recent acceptance that immigration is actually an issue that they have to address. In short UKIP is already having a significant effect.
That said, it is a very long way from achieving its aims and needs to get its act together far more than it has been able to so far. More MPs cannot but help that process as they will attract money necessary to get to a more polished standard and reduce the shy UKIP effect. If the Party gets 6 MPs this time it will have done stunningly well, three will give it a solid platform to build on (providing there are maybe 20 good second places), less than that should trigger a serious re-think, but will not be the end.
UKIP is I think morphing into the party of the ordinary little people, moving onto the space vacated by Labour and, as far as the SME/entrepreneur class goes, the Consrevatives. If, and its still a big if, it can do that successfully it will grow and succeed big time because none of the major parties speak for or care about that sector of the population.
I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
In 2014 the NHS employed 377,191 qualified nursing staff.
The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!
That must be at least 2 extra nurses per hospital.
They might be practice nurses. If so, it's one for every 8 GP practices. Should be plenty enough.
It occurs to me that it's not nurses we're short of in this country, it's mansions. Or bankers. Or ideally, bankers who live in mansions.
WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.
If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.
Soubry has something extra about her that could pull those undecided voters.
And she's not making gloating posts on the internet, claiming that a win is already in the bag.
Do we have numbers on the registered electorate compared to 2010 now ?
The BBC were reporting absolute hogwash yesterday on this subject. They implied that 7.5 million voters had come off the register since December 2014 which is impossible.
Team2015 are going to Broxtowe from St Pancras on Saturday, can you join us? http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon launched her manifesto for the Scottish National Party. It was a ransom note, a demand for £148 billion more borrowing, with the burden falling heavily on working people in England and Wales. Her key point was very simple. She said: Labour are going to be absolutely crushed in Scotland – meaning Ed Miliband cannot get into Downing Street unless he does a deal with her and the Scottish Nationalists. And she was clear about something else too: the price tag. You would pay the price for a Labour-SNP deal, with higher taxes and less financial security. I don't want to see my children forced to grow up in a broken up, divided United Kingdom, where our Union with Scotland has been ripped apart. And I don’t want our Government to rack up more debts than future generations can ever hope to repay. This would be calamitous for our country. We have to stop it. Help us to stop that disaster and to secure a brighter future for our country, with a proper Conservative majority. Join Team2015 in Broxtowe this Saturday. We will be meeting at St Pancras Station at 9.45am before heading down: http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl We are fighting – street by street – for Britain’s heart and soul. Don’t stand on the sidelines. Let’s give this everything we’ve got.
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.
Are Labour retaliating with the likely Tory dependence on the DUP? Iain Macwhirter points out tha t in general there is no discussion of "them holding David Cameron to ransom".
"Terrible things will happen if my opponent doesn't get enough votes" is an epicly crap political argument so it's not obvious that Labour should be trying to think up their own version of it. Also Labour may end up wanting to cut a deal with the DUP themselves.
But as Albert Steptoe might say, 'I've got the knobs on my side'. The SNP can choose labour's programme.
In 2014 the NHS employed 150,273 doctors. There were 32,467 additional doctors employed in the NHS in 2014 compared to 2004. The number has increased by an annual average of 2.5 per cent over that time.
So we need about 3200 more doctors each year to stand still (or even go backwards)
How many new ones are Labour promising to save the NHS?
WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.
If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.
Soubry has something extra about her that could pull those undecided voters.
And she's not making gloating posts on the internet, claiming that a win is already in the bag.
If I were in Nick's position, I'd simply say that I was quite confident, but was taking nothing for granted.
Do we have numbers on the registered electorate compared to 2010 now ?
A document with electorates for 2010 to 2014 inclusive for England is available to download on this page. Go to "Providing Data" and click on "Electorates 2014":
I've been thinking about why the Conservatives' SNP/Labour line is getting so much traction, when as many have pointed out, it makes little or no difference to whether we are lumbered with Ed Miliband in No 10.
I believe the reason goes back to something we've touched on before: that many people, especially UKIP/Con waverers, haven't actually understood that David Cameron is not a shoo-in to remain as PM. There seems to be a widespread perception, amongst supporters of all parties, than Jack W is right when he says Ed Miliband WIll Never Be Prime Mininster. That has given people a feeling that it is safe not to vote Conservative.
Enter Nicola Sturgeon, Stage Left. Suddenly the media are stuffed full of articles about she will put Ed into No 10 and then hold us all to ransom. From the coverage, it looks as though the reason that Ed might well become PM is because of the SNP surge. Of course this is arithmetic nonsense, but it's perception, not arithmetic reality, which is driving this.
fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup. Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.
But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.
It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.
Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.
Team2015 are going to Broxtowe from St Pancras on Saturday, can you join us? http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon launched her manifesto for the Scottish National Party. It was a ransom note, a demand for £148 billion more borrowing, with the burden falling heavily on working people in England and Wales. Her key point was very simple. She said: Labour are going to be absolutely crushed in Scotland – meaning Ed Miliband cannot get into Downing Street unless he does a deal with her and the Scottish Nationalists. And she was clear about something else too: the price tag. You would pay the price for a Labour-SNP deal, with higher taxes and less financial security. I don't want to see my children forced to grow up in a broken up, divided United Kingdom, where our Union with Scotland has been ripped apart. And I don’t want our Government to rack up more debts than future generations can ever hope to repay. This would be calamitous for our country. We have to stop it. Help us to stop that disaster and to secure a brighter future for our country, with a proper Conservative majority. Join Team2015 in Broxtowe this Saturday. We will be meeting at St Pancras Station at 9.45am before heading down: http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl We are fighting – street by street – for Britain’s heart and soul. Don’t stand on the sidelines. Let’s give this everything we’ve got.
Nothing but a bunch of fan**es, get back to playing with your dolls. Hope your train breaks down.
I've been thinking about why the Conservatives' SNP/Labour line is getting so much traction, when as many have pointed out, it makes little or no difference to whether we are lumbered with Ed Miliband in No 10.
I believe the reason goes back to something we've touched on before: that many people, especially UKIP/Con waverers, haven't actually understood that David Cameron is not a shoo-in to remain as PM. There seems to be a widespread perception, amongst supporters of all parties, than Jack W is right when he says Ed Miliband WIll Never Be Prime Mininster. That has given people a feeling that it is safe not to vote Conservative.
Enter Nicola Sturgeon, Stage Left. Suddenly the media are stuffed full of articles about she will put Ed into No 10 and then hold us all to ransom. From the coverage, it looks as though the reason that Ed might well become PM is because of the SNP surge. Of course this is arithmetic nonsense, but it's perception, not arithmetic reality, which is driving this.
From the Guardian
One party strategist intimately involved in the election said: “The broadcasters are now covering the election as if there is no negative consequence to voting Conservative. Labour really do have to go on the offensive and stop defending themselves about the SNP. A classic error. They are fighting an election on the opposition turf.”
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.
Are Labour retaliating with the likely Tory dependence on the DUP? Iain Macwhirter points out tha t in general there is no discussion of "them holding David Cameron to ransom".
"Terrible things will happen if my opponent doesn't get enough votes" is an epicly crap political argument so it's not obvious that Labour should be trying to think up their own version of it. Also Labour may end up wanting to cut a deal with the DUP themselves.
But as Albert Steptoe might say, 'I've got the knobs on my side'. The SNP can choose labour's programme.
...but only if Labour don't get enough votes. So voters can avoid this situation by voting Labour. Do you see the problem?
PS. This isn't relevant to whether this is a good message or not but the whole premise is bullshit, small parties have some leverage but not that much.
@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.
This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.
fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup. Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.
But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.
It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.
Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.
Thanks Malcolm. I knew I was on the right track.
One day the SNP will learn that that is no way to speak about 20% of their fellow countrymen but I am not holding my breath.
Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) 21/04/2015 11:07 'Bookkeeper of Auschwitz' who tallied victims' gold and jewels goes on trial dailym.ai/1HdqeGC pic.twitter.com/qFw79KICRl
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
They are fighting an election on the opposition turf.”
Boll8cks. Labour are in this position because they are contemplating a coalition with the SNP. Indeed, in some respects ed might prefer such a coalition to a labour majority.
Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.
He is absolutely 100% correct.
Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
Seems that spinners and trollers are impressed by spin and troll. Who knew?
Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
Yes, it is.
You are wrong. It is good and better under the Tories with some control over the bureaucracy and pay. However, here in Spain, most expats say it is better than in Britain. Private cover here is also much cheaper incidentally I sispect because doctors are not so grossly overpaid as they are in the UK. that of course was down to the last Labour govt. The funny thing about the NHS is that right from the start it's never been a truly state system. It has always been dominated by doctors who have essentially kept the benefits of the private system and a captive market. All in all a shambles and believe me, if the rest of the world envies it why do so few copy it and so many have better health outcomes.
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.
OT (probably) .We all have our own weathervanes. Unfortunately my two have just told me they are voting Tory. One because of 33 hours child benefit the other (ludicrously) because changing government is too disruptive!!
I've just put some money on the Tories getting between 300-325 seats so at least i'll be able to drown my sorrows with a reasonable bottle.
There could of corse be a game changer but it's difficult to see what.
fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup. Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.
But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.
It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.
Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.
Thanks Malcolm. I knew I was on the right track.
One day the SNP will learn that that is no way to speak about 20% of their fellow countrymen but I am not holding my breath.
David, Better than trampling 85% like the Tories do , I notice you are anticipating a surge with your estimate of Tories.
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party.
@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.
This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.
Deal, or no deal?
Your backtrack is quite phenomenal. Typical of the shell that is Unionism - it doesn't even believe in itself.
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.
Team2015 are going to Broxtowe from St Pancras on Saturday, can you join us? http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon launched her manifesto for the Scottish National Party. It was a ransom note, a demand for £148 billion more borrowing, with the burden falling heavily on working people in England and Wales. Her key point was very simple. She said: Labour are going to be absolutely crushed in Scotland – meaning Ed Miliband cannot get into Downing Street unless he does a deal with her and the Scottish Nationalists. And she was clear about something else too: the price tag. You would pay the price for a Labour-SNP deal, with higher taxes and less financial security. I don't want to see my children forced to grow up in a broken up, divided United Kingdom, where our Union with Scotland has been ripped apart. And I don’t want our Government to rack up more debts than future generations can ever hope to repay. This would be calamitous for our country. We have to stop it. Help us to stop that disaster and to secure a brighter future for our country, with a proper Conservative majority. Join Team2015 in Broxtowe this Saturday. We will be meeting at St Pancras Station at 9.45am before heading down: http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl We are fighting – street by street – for Britain’s heart and soul. Don’t stand on the sidelines. Let’s give this everything we’ve got.
Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.
He is absolutely 100% correct.
Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.
For UK laws.
For English laws it can not be right that foreign MPs not standing in England are setting devolved laws for England. You can not defend the indefensible.
EDIT: The funny thing is that the SNP used to be honourable and abstain on English-only laws, it was only Labour who did the indefensible.
Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?
Yes, I thought that too.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.
Ah, now I understand. Sorry, been away at Rehab for a week and it takes a while to get back into things.
No, I doubt I will be there. I've found in the past that the safest place for me and my finances on Election nite is at home in front of the TV and computer, stone cold sober.
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
David Davis is another working class Tory. Unfortunately, Cameron got the gig in 2005.
Missed a trick with David Davis, unfortunately people got sucked in by the big media hype Cameron got, especially regarding his slightly above par speech.
David Davis would have been a disaster for the Conservative Party. And I love the way Cameron's leadership speech has suddenly been deemed 'slightly above par'.
LOL.
(It seems TSE and I are in agreement on this one)
Both of you are LibDem (voter)s
I've voted Green in the past as well. Somehow I don't think I will be at this GE. ;-)
I'm still unsure whether Conservative or Lib Dem. The latter's raised his game, despite some unfortunately spelling mistakes on his leaflet. The Labour candidate is utterly hopeless.
(It turns out the libDem and Mrs J attend the same gym, although they've never met).
Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.
He is absolutely 100% correct.
Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.
Malcolm, is the Ayrshire soil good for turnip planting in spring ?
Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.
He is absolutely 100% correct.
Garbage , he is just as thick as he has ever been, the turnip does not realise it is a UK election not an England election. He is obviously not all there.
For UK laws.
For English laws it can not be right that foreign MPs not standing in England are setting devolved laws for England. You can not defend the indefensible.
.
Tssk - if only the Scots hadn't been scare-mongered into voting No, eh?
Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.
I'd vote for Major over any current leader.
And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.
Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.
I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.
fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup. Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.
But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.
It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.
Says a lot about Scottish Tories David, is it any wonder people hate them even more than the Labour donkeys. Two sets of no hope losers grasping to hold onto anything they can even at the expense of the country. Shameful.
I bow to no-one in my disagreements with MalcomG but he does have a point when idiots in the SCons will try to elect SLab MPs in a vain hope of saving the Union. How many SLab voters will be switching to the Tories as quid pro quo? Absolutely none. And the result - a stronger SNP who will join with Miliband in a dangerously leftward lurch. You are putting the interests of Scotland ahead of the UK as a whole and ought to be ashamed of yourself.
But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.
Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.
Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?
Did he? How so?
They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.
David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.
@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.
This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.
Deal, or no deal?
Your backtrack is quite phenomenal. Typical of the shell that is Unionism - it doesn't even believe in itself.
The bet is that the UK wide unionist parties that adopt a common position across the UK on the union outpoll the SNP.
This is the year of the SNP. As strident Scottish nationalist, who believes your fellow Scots share your cause, surely you are confident that the SNP will get more votes than that lot? Say.. 47% to 46%?
But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.
Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.
Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?
Did he? How so?
They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.
David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.
So an Old Etonian posho prevented a working class lad becoming Tory leader. Nice!
Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.
I'd vote for Major over any current leader.
And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.
Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.
I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.
This will be remembered as the best government, bar Maggie, for half a century past, and I would strongly expect for many years to come.
However, that wasn't really my point - my point was that what people are saying about John Major now bears absolutely no connection whatsoever to what people said about him when he was actually PM.
OT (probably) .We all have our own weathervanes. Unfortunately my two have just told me they are voting Tory. One because of 33 hours child benefit the other (ludicrously) because changing government is too disruptive!!
I've just put some money on the Tories getting between 300-325 seats so at least i'll be able to drown my sorrows with a reasonable bottle.
There could of corse be a game changer but it's difficult to see what.
PS 'Shy Tories' are a thing of the past
There is no evidence of that so far. It is still deeply "uncool" to vote Conservative and while that remains the shy Tory effect will remain.
But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.
Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.
Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?
Did he? How so?
They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.
David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.
So an Old Etonian posho prevented a working class lad becoming Tory leader. Nice!
The inverse happened in 1990.
In the Tory party, we're not interested in class*, we just care if you're good enough.
Mr. Max, I saw the speech, until the technical fault.
I'd vote for Major over any current leader.
And in twenty years' time it will be a truth universally acknowledged that David Cameron is far more impressive than whoever is leader then.
Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.
I don't think so, at least if he is a one term PM. If he is able to win 305-320 seats then he will be remembered well, but on the basis of this term I'm not so sure. That's not to say the country isn't better than it was in 2010, but I think the Tories made a few bad decisions early on. As I have said time and again Dave isn't comfortable enough on wealth creation to really change the tone of debate away from soaking the rich to aspirational capitalism.
This will be remembered as the best government, bar Maggie, for half a century past, and I would strongly expect for many years to come.
However, that wasn't really my point - my point was that what people are saying about John Major now bears absolutely no connection whatsoever to what people said about him when he was actually PM.
This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP. 2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out. 3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.
Well it would be boring if everyone agreed wouldn't it?
I think a losing EU referendum would get Ukip many more seats in the following GE. Seems obvious and we have a precedent, but feel free to disagree
There's more than one precedent here. For years the major policy of the Lib Dems was voting reform. A voting reform (AV) referendum has not exactly led to a Lib Dem surge has it?
Just a few minutes of John Major shows how much better he is than David Cameron. So much more natural and believable than Dave.
Maybe Dave should pork one of the cabinet.
Don't say that: you might encourage someone to create some fanfic of it.
David and May embracing over the cabinet table? David and Clegg kissing in the rose garden? David, Osborne and Pickles cavorting naked with Morgan and Greening and the Soviet Naval Attache at Chequers?
I've heard rumours that David Blunkett's old seat in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough might be the scene of a rather impressive UKIP performance. People living in the area might know more about it.
Very well, Morris, and thank you (and others) for your kind words, but I must confess that Rehab is actually code for a small place in the Cotswolds to which I and a special friend repair when in need of respite from The Smoke. It is delightful, not least because of a lack of telecommunications, but not the kind of retreat I may have conjured up in people's minds!
But what did it achieve? Seriously, he could have been the most powerful, Libertarian Home Secretary in a long time.
Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.
Dave stabbed David in the front in 2005?
Did he? How so?
They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.
David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.
So an Old Etonian posho prevented a working class lad becoming Tory leader. Nice!
The inverse happened in 1990.
In the Tory party, we're not interested in class*, we just care if you're good enough.
*Except when we use to our advantage.
To quote Maggie herself:
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.
- Said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
Mr. Thompson, precisely, and that's why it's the right line for the Conservatives.
Imagine for a moment the SNP voting on English only laws, such as education.
Laws the majority of English MPs opposed. And doing it routinely because labour needed them.
No matter how the numbers add up, how long is a government like that is sustainable?
It just isn;t, for me.
How long would such a government last? Probably five years, unless the by-elections killed its majority. Remember we have a system of elected dictatorship, the tyranny of the minority, and a PM can do anything as long as his or her MPs stay loyal.
@uniondivvie - if you're going to be rude, I won't bet with you.
This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.
Deal, or no deal?
Your backtrack is quite phenomenal. Typical of the shell that is Unionism - it doesn't even believe in itself.
The bet is that the UK wide unionist parties that adopt a common position across the UK on the union outpoll the SNP.
This is the year of the SNP. As strident Scottish nationalist, who believes your fellow Scots share your cause, surely you are confident that the SNP will get more votes than that lot? Say.. 47% to 46%?
Yeah but your first post was that Unionist parties would poll a majority of votes.
You no longer offer that in fact you want to offer something totally different.
You eeven tried the most weasely bet I've seen on here.
OT (probably) .We all have our own weathervanes. Unfortunately my two have just told me they are voting Tory. One because of 33 hours child benefit the other (ludicrously) because changing government is too disruptive!!
I've just put some money on the Tories getting between 300-325 seats so at least i'll be able to drown my sorrows with a reasonable bottle.
There could of corse be a game changer but it's difficult to see what.
PS 'Shy Tories' are a thing of the past
There is no evidence of that so far. It is still deeply "uncool" to vote Conservative and while that remains the shy Tory effect will remain.
One of the interesting results from the latest ICM is that Conservative 2010 voters are less likely to answer don't know/refused than Labour 2010 voters (both are well behind 2010 Lib Dems, the figures are 12%, 17% and 30%).
So that evidence suggests that Tory voters are less shy than Labour voters, who are presumably wary of admitting to voting for Miliband. This isn't the sort of result you'd expect for an opposition about to turf out the incumbent government.
Andrew Nicoll @AndrewSNicoll 3 mins3 minutes ago Just in from Paddy Power SNP Seats 3/1 40 or under 7/2 41 to 45 3/1 46 to 50 2/1 51 to 55 9/2 Over 55
Very well, Morris, and thank you (and others) for your kind words, but I must confess that Rehab is actually code for a small place in the Cotswolds to which I and a special friend repair when in need of respite from The Smoke. It is delightful, not least because of a lack of telecommunications, but not the kind of retreat I may have conjured up in people's minds!
Apologies.
I was starting to feel guilty about assuming that you were joking. You might even have gotten a response from me before 5pm at the rate everyone else was going...
Comments
Some years ago Cameron was happy to write off UKIP supporters as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". He is not using that sort of language anymore and in terms of policy he has moved, if not towards then at least acknowledging, the position UKIP espouses. Labour has done the same with its more recent acceptance that immigration is actually an issue that they have to address. In short UKIP is already having a significant effect.
That said, it is a very long way from achieving its aims and needs to get its act together far more than it has been able to so far. More MPs cannot but help that process as they will attract money necessary to get to a more polished standard and reduce the shy UKIP effect. If the Party gets 6 MPs this time it will have done stunningly well, three will give it a solid platform to build on (providing there are maybe 20 good second places), less than that should trigger a serious re-think, but will not be the end.
UKIP is I think morphing into the party of the ordinary little people, moving onto the space vacated by Labour and, as far as the SME/entrepreneur class goes, the Consrevatives. If, and its still a big if, it can do that successfully it will grow and succeed big time because none of the major parties speak for or care about that sector of the population.
It occurs to me that it's not nurses we're short of in this country, it's mansions. Or bankers. Or ideally, bankers who live in mansions.
Team2015 are going to Broxtowe from St Pancras on Saturday, can you join us? http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl
Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon launched her manifesto for the Scottish National Party. It was a ransom note, a demand for £148 billion more borrowing, with the burden falling heavily on working people in England and Wales. Her key point was very simple. She said: Labour are going to be absolutely crushed in Scotland – meaning Ed Miliband cannot get into Downing Street unless he does a deal with her and the Scottish Nationalists.
And she was clear about something else too: the price tag.
You would pay the price for a Labour-SNP deal, with higher taxes and less financial security.
I don't want to see my children forced to grow up in a broken up, divided United Kingdom, where our Union with Scotland has been ripped apart. And I don’t want our Government to rack up more debts than future generations can ever hope to repay. This would be calamitous for our country. We have to stop it.
Help us to stop that disaster and to secure a brighter future for our country, with a proper Conservative majority.
Join Team2015 in Broxtowe this Saturday. We will be meeting at St Pancras Station at 9.45am before heading down: http://www.team2015.co.uk/ssbrot25aprl
We are fighting – street by street – for Britain’s heart and soul. Don’t stand on the sidelines. Let’s give this everything we’ve got.
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/domestic-violence-labour-fans-paint-cameron-strangling-woman-on-house/#_@/Fr5jrOrWgCDVCw
So we need about 3200 more doctors each year to stand still (or even go backwards)
How many new ones are Labour promising to save the NHS?
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-in-the-bce/
ELBOW of the week's five polls so far = Lab lead 0.3%
(or if you prefer the simple average, a 0.4% Tory lead - take your pick!)
Tony Blair was always careful to ensure middle England remained asleep when he was campaigning.
I rather fear Ed Miliband has awoken the beast.
I've been thinking about why the Conservatives' SNP/Labour line is getting so much traction, when as many have pointed out, it makes little or no difference to whether we are lumbered with Ed Miliband in No 10.
I believe the reason goes back to something we've touched on before: that many people, especially UKIP/Con waverers, haven't actually understood that David Cameron is not a shoo-in to remain as PM. There seems to be a widespread perception, amongst supporters of all parties, than Jack W is right when he says Ed Miliband WIll Never Be Prime Mininster. That has given people a feeling that it is safe not to vote Conservative.
Enter Nicola Sturgeon, Stage Left. Suddenly the media are stuffed full of articles about she will put Ed into No 10 and then hold us all to ransom. From the coverage, it looks as though the reason that Ed might well become PM is because of the SNP surge. Of course this is arithmetic nonsense, but it's perception, not arithmetic reality, which is driving this.
One party strategist intimately involved in the election said: “The broadcasters are now covering the election as if there is no negative consequence to voting Conservative. Labour really do have to go on the offensive and stop defending themselves about the SNP. A classic error. They are fighting an election on the opposition turf.”
http://bit.ly/1zFOCZL
Major has said it cannot be right the SNP is seeking to influence policy in a country where it is not fielding candidates.
He is absolutely 100% correct.
PS. This isn't relevant to whether this is a good message or not but the whole premise is bullshit, small parties have some leverage but not that much.
WTF.
Oh and the Torygraph - Iain Martin.
Hahahahahha.
This is the year of the SNP. You seem very confident they will do very well indeed. So, Final offer: I will offer you for LibLabConUKIP combined (whom all offer a common UK wide unionist policy) to outpoll the SNP alone (with no 50% vote threshold) at evens.
Deal, or no deal?
I'd vote for Major over any current leader.
One day the SNP will learn that that is no way to speak about 20% of their fellow countrymen but I am not holding my breath.
Like JohnO, were David Davis to lose his seat next month, I would class it as a Tory gain.
Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline)
21/04/2015 11:07
'Bookkeeper of Auschwitz' who tallied victims' gold and jewels goes on trial dailym.ai/1HdqeGC pic.twitter.com/qFw79KICRl
However that part of the world is probably just the sort of place that SNP 'problem' could swing a lot of voters.
Boll8cks. Labour are in this position because they are contemplating a coalition with the SNP. Indeed, in some respects ed might prefer such a coalition to a labour majority.
Twas ever so - rose-tinted spectacles.
LOL.
(It seems TSE and I are in agreement on this one)
I've just put some money on the Tories getting between 300-325 seats so at least i'll be able to drown my sorrows with a reasonable bottle.
There could of corse be a game changer but it's difficult to see what.
PS 'Shy Tories' are a thing of the past
There is someone temperamentally unsuited to lead a conga line let alone the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_by-election_campaign,_2008
QED
Miliband on Cameron. "he is demeaning himself. He is demeaning his office. He will say anything and stop at nothing."
Miliband rattled.....
Discounting Thatcher (who polarises opinion), the only modern PM who has been judged kindly by history is Major.
Edited extra bit: I use the word 'history' in its loosest possible sense.
For English laws it can not be right that foreign MPs not standing in England are setting devolved laws for England. You can not defend the indefensible.
EDIT: The funny thing is that the SNP used to be honourable and abstain on English-only laws, it was only Labour who did the indefensible.
Now he's just a bitter old git, causing pain for the man who wouldn't give him his job back.
I'm still unsure whether Conservative or Lib Dem. The latter's raised his game, despite some unfortunately spelling mistakes on his leaflet. The Labour candidate is utterly hopeless.
(It turns out the libDem and Mrs J attend the same gym, although they've never met).
It was made flesh with Cleggasism for a short while.
They aren't brothers, there was no Granita pact.
David Cameron took on David Davis, and when it came to the Tory members, slaughtered him like Lucius Aemilius Paullus did to Perseus at the Battle of Pydna.
Mr. W, how very dare you?
Although, there is an element of cross-dressing and a reference to 'Edwina' in one of my two WIPs.
This is the year of the SNP. As strident Scottish nationalist, who believes your fellow Scots share your cause, surely you are confident that the SNP will get more votes than that lot? Say.. 47% to 46%?
Imagine for a moment the SNP voting on English only laws, such as education.
Laws the majority of English MPs opposed. And doing it routinely because labour needed them.
No matter how the numbers add up, how long is a government like that is sustainable?
It just isn;t, for me.
However, that wasn't really my point - my point was that what people are saying about John Major now bears absolutely no connection whatsoever to what people said about him when he was actually PM.
Not so much Abbott
Yet all Miliband has to do to diffuse it is to say he won't deal with the SNP. Would you, Ed?
In the Tory party, we're not interested in class*, we just care if you're good enough.
*Except when we use to our advantage.
David and May embracing over the cabinet table?
David and Clegg kissing in the rose garden?
David, Osborne and Pickles cavorting naked with Morgan and Greening and the Soviet Naval Attache at Chequers?
He should have put the endorsement of Ed Miliband or Gordon Brown on his leaflet.
Apologies.
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.
- Said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
You no longer offer that in fact you want to offer something totally different.
You eeven tried the most weasely bet I've seen on here.
Still unsure how I'll follow the election. May be online, maybe I'll opt for the TV.
The fact Ed has even considered a deal with the SNP tells us what we need to know about him.
So that evidence suggests that Tory voters are less shy than Labour voters, who are presumably wary of admitting to voting for Miliband. This isn't the sort of result you'd expect for an opposition about to turf out the incumbent government.
Just in from Paddy Power
SNP Seats
3/1 40 or under
7/2 41 to 45
3/1 46 to 50
2/1 51 to 55
9/2 Over 55
Time for Arse-ists to make a killing?