How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Cardiff N is certainly likely to go Labour, but Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is unlikely.
If I recollect, the Labour poster valleyboy is an activist in this seat, and he was pessimistic about Labour retaking either this or next-door Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I suspect the only seats changing in Wales will be Cardiff N and Cardiff C.
And even those are not slam dunks, as the Labour Council in Cardiff is struggling with cuts, but I suspect they will both tilt to Labour.
Interesting Jack has changed his Broxtowe prediction, as the information I have heard is the Conservatives are very confident they can hold, even more so in Amber Valley. .
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
They will probably get 56 - and each of the Westminster parties 1 each.
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think they will get 6-7 seats personally
Hope so as I am on 5 or more, not very confident but think they may nick a couple up North
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
They will probably get 56 - and each of the Westminster parties 1 each.
There must be a chance of both the LibDems and the Tories getting more Scottish seats than Labour. Karma.
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
I like the "tick tock" posts. They are posts which have relevance for political betting.
How so? In his confidence he will win, or Labour will win?
I don't feel any of us on here need a day to day countdown to the General Election. We all know when it is.
Pleased to see JackW's swing! I do expect to win by a reasonable margin, and there are signs that the Tories have stopped bothering seriously - AS is skipping the next two hustings events, Tory canvass groups are typically 3-5 people, and total Tory poster count has staggered up to 3 (one of the Conservative clubs finally put one up) to Labour's 800.
The tick-tock posts are of course mainly a tease, and I've teased enough: now that the postal votes are here. I'll give them a rest. The underlying observation that Labour will form the next government if the Conservatives don't break through soon does however remain valid.
On Cambridge, I think i've said before that I have no personal knowledge. It simply strikes me as the sort of seat where there will be maximium Red Liberal presence, unlike some of the LibDem seats in the west country where LibDem votes are not that political. But Ashcroft's poll in the seat suggests otherwise, so punters shouldn't attach special importance to my thoughts on that.
Such arrogance and complacency, if you were really that confident you wouldn't be saying too much.
Certainly the Tories are bothering and they will get plenty of bodies out, not as many as you but quality is more important than quantity.
If you think it is in the bag great but I don't believe it.
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwards
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms. They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
I reckon 7 seats gives UKIP around a 10 or so % chance of critical relevance.
I see that the SNP have now hit 40 with JackW. That still looks quite a bit on the low side to me, I have to say. There's no sign of any kind of reduction in SNP support (if anything, the reverse) and only the Edinburgh South poll gave any kind of hint of tactical voting.
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.
I wouldn't.
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.I think UKIP's past poll peaks have come _after_ election results too, rather than during the campaigns.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?
@MikeSmithson The other interesting independent is Claire Wright in East Devon, who's a local councillor. It's one of the few constituencies where the Greens aren't standing and she seems well-poised to pick up the protest vote that previously went Lib Dem. More information on her would be much-appreciated.
fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup. Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
Those of us with 25/1 bets on the SNP in Edinburgh South encourage you to share your thought processes with your neighbours.
I'm only on at 2.87 but I concur with this statement.
Cardiff N is certainly likely to go Labour, but Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is unlikely.
If I recollect, the Labour poster valleyboy is an activist in this seat, and he was pessimistic about Labour retaking either this or next-door Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I suspect the only seats changing in Wales will be Cardiff N and Cardiff C.
And even those are not slam dunks, as the Labour Council in Cardiff is struggling with cuts, but I suspect they will both tilt to Labour.
I have Carmarthen West at 56 out of my 60 seats with a Lab majority of 300. TCTC.
I got three more leaflets this morning, from the Tories, UKIP, and TUSC, none of whom have any real chance here, in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough. A Labour loss would need a major political earthquake.
The Tories and UKIP both only sent an A% card, but TUSC splashed out on a A3 poster.
The Tory leaflet has the 'coalition of chaos' poster on one side. The other side has the candidate's name, ELise Dunweber, her picture, and three bullet points, 'striving to increase the standard of living', 'improving education, prioritising the NHS and supporting the police', 'supporting democracy and ensuring funding promised from the North comes to Sheffield'.
UKIPS's leaflet has four bullet points on one side - 'control our border','invest in the NHS', 'fairer tax system', spend here, not abroad' - and the candidate's name, photo, and biography on the other side,. He's John Booker, a former engineer who's been running a small business for the last 30 years.
Tusc's poster can be folded in half and put in the window. The rest of it has the usual pictures of their candidate, Maxine Bowler, and plenty of lefti wing rhetoric: 'We live in a sham democracy' 'tax the rich, don't blame the poor', 'bosses, politicians and the media have tried to divide working class people against each other by blaming the poor, the disabled, the elderly and immigrants'.
TUSC's poster has a blatantly cherry-picked comparison of the recovery time from the last recession with three previous ones, in 1874, 1921, and 1976. If they have to go back 140 years to find three times with faster recovery, the current government can't be doing too badly.
Another interesting TUSC claim is 'for every £1 of NHS contracts sold, 15p has been contracted to Tory supporters.' Since Tory support has never been as low as 15%, this implies Tory supporters are less likely than average to benefit from NHS contracts, not quite the message TUSC intended.
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Loughborough is safe, High Peak is in play. The excellent Bet365 (Whose odds are a decent guide) are top price Labour there though, so at Evens I'd take the Tories.
Interesting Jack has changed his Broxtowe prediction, as the information I have heard is the Conservatives are very confident they can hold, even more so in Amber Valley. Both I predict will be mighty close again.
Broxtowe has edged into the "Likely Lab Gain" column .... just .... somewhat like when it edged into the "Likely Con Hold" column a few weeks ago .... just.
A move of little over a few hundred votes enables Broxtowe and others like it to move columns - the parameters of which are quite narrow.
Essentially Broxtowe is tight as a tick .... or tock as Nick Palmer would say.
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?
This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.
As in 2010 are you and your feather boas tripping the light fantastic up to Broxtowe to ensure it remains close to my ARSE present prediction of a "Likely Labour Gain" ?
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).
The Bristol/Somerset area seems to be great for the Tories (See Somerset NE too). That could help Labour mind in Bristol West as Tories stay blue and don't tactically vote Lib Dem.
I'm on in all the Bristol seats, laying the Lib Dems essentially in Bristol West.
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).
I bought Ukip on the spreads at 0.5 there... Speculative but seemed worth a punt
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
Wishful thinking for me, because that's all my christmases come at once with my book.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
Tories will never elect Hammond as leader if they are hoping for a 2nd election this year, in fact it is unlikely they will ever choose him.
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
Derby County are very well represented on here. Heartening. One thing it is worth considering is Labour appear to have sent their first elector address out already a couple of weeks ago. The Tories have waited until the end of the campaign to do it, no doubt a large focus will be the SNP.
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.
As in 2010 are you and your feather boas tripping the light fantastic up to Broxtowe to ensure it remains close to my ARSE present prediction of a "Likely Labour Gain" ?
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
My usual two day trip will commence shortly.
I'd assumed it was this that caused you to flip Broxtowe into the Labour Gain column.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
It's kind of what I hope for but the other way round. It's going to be the 'after you' election.
Can the Kippers on here enlighten me. If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.
Ed visited Luffy the other day - Labour must think it is still in play.
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
That's a bit unfair. Mr Royale's actual assertion was "The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties", so the onus is the other way round, surely.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
Wishful thinking for me, because that's all my christmases come at once with my book.
LOL, not far off my book too, hence the sanity check!
I can see Cameron preferring the exit to the chaos having served his time, whereas Mili would definitely want the power. I can imagine Cam play the nice guy and abstain the Speech on condition that the deficit reduction stuff is all in there "So as not to spook the markets", then walk away after the QS leaving Mili badly exposed to the Left flank of his own party as well as the SNP and greens.
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?
If no one can form a government I think both parties would be happy for the Conservatives to run a minority government until a second election. This is because the Conservatives would want Cameron to fight the second election, whilst Labour would want a new leader.
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Coatbridge Edinburgh S Edinburgh SW Edinburgh W Glasgow N Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy Motherwell Paisley S East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?
You've seen the Ashcroft poll I take it ?
I take the point. Still think it'll be closer than Ashcroft found.
I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.
I was in High Peak last weekend, sources on both sides expect a comfortable Tory hold, not surprising the demographics are in their favour more and more and the MP for a politician is highly respected locally. He was prepared to go against his party leadership to fight for his constituents. Add to that he has a lot of experienced backing behind him, Edwina lives there now and she has used her influence behind the scenes.
Lordy's work has been interesting but I wouldn't take too much notice of that High Peak poll, certainly if you are putting money on. If you can get Evens for the Conservatives in High Peak it must be the bet of the election.
thanks for sharing the Chokkablog analysis. It's excellent and destoys the economic case for independence.
In the first paragraph is uses the figure for the Supplementary Charge as the total for Oil and Gas revenue. It's the typical economic illiteracy of the Loyalist mind - if the figures don't support their argument they make them up.
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
That's a bit unfair. Mr Royale's actual assertion was "The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties", so the onus is the other way round, surely.
It seems that the assertion and the bet offer went in different directions.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP. 2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out. 3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.
I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
I thought the mansion tax was for Scottish nurses?
Elmet a Enfield North Erewash Glouces Great Y Haleso Harrow East Hasting Hendon High Pe Hove Ipswich Keighle Kingsw Lancast Lincoln Loughb Milton S Moreca Norwic Nuneat Pendle Plymou Pudsey Rossen Sherwo Stevena Stockto Stroud Swindo S Thurroc Vale of Glamorgan Warring Warwic N Warwick & Leamington Waven Weaver Wirral W Wolver Worces
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
Maybe I will have to, I hear the Newcastle deal is done but perhaps on recent performance they will get cold feet and bail out.
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Not if last night's Newsnight interview with Evan Davis is anything to go by. He looked tired, uncertain and far from convincing
Can the Kippers on here enlighten me. If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?
If there is a vote to leave that would definitely count as a "major change" and allow the SNP to call a new referendum. I don't think anyone can argue with that.
Gibraltar I think would be allowed a referendum whenever they want.
thanks for sharing the Chokkablog analysis. It's excellent and destoys the economic case for independence.
In the first paragraph is uses the figure for the Supplementary Charge as the total for Oil and Gas revenue. It's the typical economic illiteracy of the Loyalist mind - if the figures don't support their argument they make them up.
Independence fundamentalist cannot deal with reality shock. I am not sure if you are trolling or if you are genuinely so blinded by the desire to build an international border that you are incapable of coping with anything that might make it a little harder to achieve.
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315 2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech. 3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond. 4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
It's kind of what I hope for but the other way round. It's going to be the 'after you' election.
Indeed, the "After You" election.
My other idea for the same scenario was a 6 month Grand Coalition agreement between Con and Lab, led by the leader of the largest party and involving a bunch of constitutional stuff like EV4EL, boundary changes, Royal Commissions on HoL reform, Barnet formula etc, then back to the People in the autumn.
Miliband would have to deal with no changes in taxes and benefits for six months at the expense of not having to deal with the SNP. It's even plausible that Cameron and Miliband might both resign their party leaderships to allow fresh faces for the Autumn and move political debate away from what the interim Government is doing...
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?
The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.
To be fair, he did also say a levy on big tobacco and cracking down on tax avoidance.
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.
Comments
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
They must be assuming that the Lib Dem will not play any part in any coalition with any party after what they have gone through.
Cardiff N is certainly likely to go Labour, but Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is unlikely.
If I recollect, the Labour poster valleyboy is an activist in this seat, and he was pessimistic about Labour retaking either this or next-door Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I suspect the only seats changing in Wales will be Cardiff N and Cardiff C.
And even those are not slam dunks, as the Labour Council in Cardiff is struggling with cuts, but I suspect they will both tilt to Labour.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai–Hangzhou_Maglev_Line
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_brake#Conversion_to_electric_energy:_the_motor_as_a_generator
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think they will get 6-7 seats personally
Hope so as I am on 5 or more, not very confident but think they may nick a couple up North
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
Karma.
Certainly the Tories are bothering and they will get plenty of bodies out, not as many as you but quality is more important than quantity.
If you think it is in the bag great but I don't believe it.
Not for me though.
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
I reckon 7 seats gives UKIP around a 10 or so % chance of critical relevance.
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
The Tories and UKIP both only sent an A% card, but TUSC splashed out on a A3 poster.
The Tory leaflet has the 'coalition of chaos' poster on one side. The other side has the candidate's name, ELise Dunweber, her picture, and three bullet points, 'striving to increase the standard of living', 'improving education, prioritising the NHS and supporting the police', 'supporting democracy and ensuring funding promised from the North comes to Sheffield'.
UKIPS's leaflet has four bullet points on one side - 'control our border','invest in the NHS', 'fairer tax system', spend here, not abroad' - and the candidate's name, photo, and biography on the other side,. He's John Booker, a former engineer who's been running a small business for the last 30 years.
Tusc's poster can be folded in half and put in the window. The rest of it has the usual pictures of their candidate, Maxine Bowler, and plenty of lefti wing rhetoric: 'We live in a sham democracy' 'tax the rich, don't blame the poor', 'bosses, politicians and the media have tried to divide working class people against each other by blaming the poor, the disabled, the elderly and immigrants'.
TUSC's poster has a blatantly cherry-picked comparison of the recovery time from the last recession with three previous ones, in 1874, 1921, and 1976. If they have to go back 140 years to find three times with faster recovery, the current government can't be doing too badly.
Another interesting TUSC claim is 'for every £1 of NHS contracts sold, 15p has been contracted to Tory supporters.' Since Tory support has never been as low as 15%, this implies Tory supporters are less likely than average to benefit from NHS contracts, not quite the message TUSC intended.
A move of little over a few hundred votes enables Broxtowe and others like it to move columns - the parameters of which are quite narrow.
Essentially Broxtowe is tight as a tick .... or tock as Nick Palmer would say.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.
"Will people all please see sense and vote Labour."
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
I'm on in all the Bristol seats, laying the Lib Dems essentially in Bristol West.
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
'The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties.'
'Are you sure of that?'
'Yes.'
Bet is on whether SNPGreenSSP get higher percentage of votes than LibLabConUKIP, and at a price that reflects your certainty, say 6/4 against?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
I'd assumed it was this that caused you to flip Broxtowe into the Labour Gain column.
If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?
Strong hints that Miliband's life might be made easier if he avoids a deal with the SNP too...
Can see Dodds/Robinson making mincemeat of Miliband or Cameron in any negotiations personally.
I can see Cameron preferring the exit to the chaos having served his time, whereas Mili would definitely want the power. I can imagine Cam play the nice guy and abstain the Speech on condition that the deficit reduction stuff is all in there "So as not to spook the markets", then walk away after the QS leaving Mili badly exposed to the Left flank of his own party as well as the SNP and greens.
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
Lordy's work has been interesting but I wouldn't take too much notice of that High Peak poll, certainly if you are putting money on. If you can get Evens for the Conservatives in High Peak it must be the bet of the election.
It seems that the assertion and the bet offer went in different directions.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP.
2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out.
3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.
I thought the mansion tax was for Scottish nurses?
Cool Ed Miliband @cooledmiliband 12h12 hours ago
Ed Bowie by @StcrevDavid #HellYesEd #CoolEdMiliband http://tinyurl.com/o3t42d3
Gibraltar I think would be allowed a referendum whenever they want.
Con 280 + LD 30 + Prods 10 + Kippers 3 = 323
But could they rely on all of the LibDems - or any if Clegg loses his seat?
Anyway, that's the number I'll be looking for in the exit poll at 22:01.
My other idea for the same scenario was a 6 month Grand Coalition agreement between Con and Lab, led by the leader of the largest party and involving a bunch of constitutional stuff like EV4EL, boundary changes, Royal Commissions on HoL reform, Barnet formula etc, then back to the People in the autumn.
Miliband would have to deal with no changes in taxes and benefits for six months at the expense of not having to deal with the SNP. It's even plausible that Cameron and Miliband might both resign their party leaderships to allow fresh faces for the Autumn and move political debate away from what the interim Government is doing...
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/20/tories-playing-dangerous-game-scotland-lord-forsyth
But then he is a staunch supporter of the Labour party :-)