politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this
Comments
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I thought as much.Peter_the_Punter said:
My usual two day trip will commence shortly.JackW said:
As in 2010 are you and your feather boas tripping the light fantastic up to Broxtowe to ensure it remains close to my ARSE present prediction of a "Likely Labour Gain" ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.Pulpstar said:
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
I'd assumed it was this that caused you to flip Broxtowe into the Labour Gain column.
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Yes, that's about right, Sandy.SandyRentool said:By my reckoniong, the Tories need a minimum of 280 seats to have any chance of passing a Queens Speech:
Con 280 + LD 30 + Prods 10 + Kippers 3 = 323
But could they rely on all of the LibDems - or any if Clegg loses his seat?
Anyway, that's the number I'll be looking for in the exit poll at 22:01.
Personally I'd put it at 285, but why quibble, especially as so much would depend upon the number of seats the LDs manage to retain.
I've been a way for a week. Any recent news of how Clegg is doing in his effort to hang on in Sheffield Hallam? I'd be surprised if he lost but the last polling I saw made it close.0 -
This John Major intervention seems to be the Tories version of wheeling out Gordon Brown.
It's the most bizarre "let's re-run the referendum" speech so far.0 -
Yes, but I don't see why Ed is shortening at the same time. SNP gains from LD doesn't explain it.Peter_the_Punter said:
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?Tissue_Price said:
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
It might be all the ramping May2015 are doing
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Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.0
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The only people making noises about the referendum are the unionists ! Listened to Radio 4 and 5 this morning:Dair said:This John Major intervention seems to be the Tories version of wheeling out Gordon Brown.
It's the most bizarre "let's re-run the referendum" speech so far.
"SNP... SNP... SNP...SNP"0 -
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.Nemtynakht said:
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
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Yes, I'm sure that's it, TP.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, but I don't see why Ed is shortening at the same time. SNP gains from LD doesn't explain it.Peter_the_Punter said:
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?Tissue_Price said:
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
It might be all the ramping May2015 are doing
How fortunate it is that we never have any ramping on here.
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I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
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kle4 said:
LOL, victim mentality at its extreme, enjoy work and don't fret I have no intention of insulting anyone. I never do I merely point out their deficiencies which they take as insults due to inferiority/victim complexes.malcolmg said:
I see you're deciding to take the most extreme positions of any of your opponents and pretend they are the norm, so you can shoot it down in as entertainingly vulgar a way as you can, without the need to be more serious (if you pretend your opponents are all frothing at the mouth crazy, then you don't need to respond with anything but mockery!). Par for the course in political campaigning, but it is false no matter who does it.Dair said:
On here they think that England pays for everything , why exactly do they think these turkeys are desperately clinging on to us , I hardly think it is to give us all that free money these idiots think we get. As we see they are foaming at the mouth down south at the thought of us actually having an influence , shit**** themselves that the real numbers will come out some day.OblitusSumMe said:
Not the way it to her.Dair said:
Your problem is a complete lack of understanding of the fiscal position of the UK.hamiltonace said:The financial cost of FFA is about 7bn even with geographical allocation of oil. This is more than 10% of total expenditure. The Scots could borrow some of this initially but would the UKg sector.
It is strange irony that the time that the Scots get serious about independence is the time when it does not make sense financially.
Not paying for Trident would save the Scots around 200m a year not the 100bn that a SNP supporter told me yesterday when I pointed out the numbers.
Currently t defence?
I'm off for work shortly so if you wish to insult me, and mock how you can dish it out and take it, best do so quickly, but I think I can fill in the blanks.0 -
My book is fantastic as are my canvass returns. Not to mention the private polling.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I'm sure that's it, TP.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, but I don't see why Ed is shortening at the same time. SNP gains from LD doesn't explain it.Peter_the_Punter said:
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?Tissue_Price said:
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
It might be all the ramping May2015 are doing
How fortunate it is that we never have any ramping on here.0 -
Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???0
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Are Labour retaliating with the likely Tory dependence on the DUP? Iain Macwhirter points out tha t in general there is no discussion of "them holding David Cameron to ransom".JEO said:
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.Nemtynakht said:
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/590445270237900801
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LOL! Mine too.Tissue_Price said:
My book is fantastic as are my canvass returns. Not to mention the private polling.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I'm sure that's it, TP.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, but I don't see why Ed is shortening at the same time. SNP gains from LD doesn't explain it.Peter_the_Punter said:
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?Tissue_Price said:
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.
It might be all the ramping May2015 are doing
How fortunate it is that we never have any ramping on here.0 -
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
Derby County are very well represented on here. Heartening. One thing it is worth considering is Labour appear to have sent their first elector address out already a couple of weeks ago. The Tories have waited until the end of the campaign to do it, no doubt a large focus will be the SNP.
The more Rams fans the better, interesting point. In my opinion the Conservatives to get the number of seats they will need have to get the message across that the vast majority will be worse off in the pocket under Labour, using the SNP seems a good way of drumming that message home.
At the end of last week I was losing faith in the Tory campaign, it seemed to be going nowhere and in my opinion the right to buy policy looked a desperate attempt to recreate past glory.
Now I have new hope, they need to build momentum on this to have a chance of getting the lead of 4% plus they will need.
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Guinea Bissau would kill for our NHS.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
France? Germany? Canada? Australia? Austria? They might have a problem with patients drinking their flower water....0 -
Murphy appealing to 'loyal' support on the streets of Glasgow.
Matthew Moore @mattmoorek 23 minutes ago
In a departure from the rules of campaigning the leader of Scottish Labour is holding a rally on the streets of Glasgow today. #c4news
Matthew Moore @mattmoorek 8 minutes ago
"SNP are wankers," says a man who's just announced he's in the Orange Order.0 -
Anyway, from crunching the data it seems that ICM must be looking at the Lab-Con gap rather than simply the majority - so if LD's are 2nd you're basically considered safe [seems reasonable].
In which case the results for 2010 per the categorisation above are...Type Num CON LAB LIB UK NAT
Food for thought, but small sample size surely applies.
Con Marg 90 41 34 18 3 0
Con Safe 215 51 15 26 4 0
Lab Marg 60 34 40 18 3 1
Lab Safe 157 21 48 20 3 1
LD 46 32 14 47 3 1
Scottish 59 17 42 19 1 20
Other 5 16 19 10 6 190 -
My book is OK - but it is no @Antifrank
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Philip , glad you agree , only sad individuals believe the SNP are anti-English. There may be some people are of course , as there are some people anti-Scottish but to conflate SNP policy with hating the English is pretty pathetic and vice versa.Philip_Thompson said:
Westminster isn't an opposing party, the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems etc are - you're attacking an institution not a party. The equivalent would be people attacking Holyrood not the SNP. I think you've attacked the Tories quite often without it being portrayed as anti-English.malcolmg said:
Yet on here on a daily basis if we attack Westminster it is portrayed as anti-English. You cannot have it both ways.Philip_Thompson said:
Tough.SouthamObserver said:Of course the Tories should attack Labour in every way they can in order to win. My point is that centring your strategy on a message that says the Scots are about to inflict chaos on the UK is not necessarily the way to show to Scots that you are committed to the Union. I just wonder how the Tories will rebuild bridges after the election, or if they interested in doing so. If they are writing Scotland off forever, why did they invest so much in a No vote last year?
The Tories aren't attacking Scots, a steady fraction of whom still vote Tory despite all this so-called negative campaigning. They're attacking the SNP and Labour. Suggesting you can't attack your political opponents is a funny way to run a democracy.
Of course its possible to be anti-Scottish while attacking the SNP, or anti-English while attacking the Tories - but merely attacking a political party is not the same as attacking a nation.
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Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.0 -
Think 295 is more like it - can see your LD/PRODS/KIPPERS figure yielding less than 30SandyRentool said:By my reckoniong, the Tories need a minimum of 280 seats to have any chance of passing a Queens Speech:
Con 280 + LD 30 + Prods 10 + Kippers 3 = 323
But could they rely on all of the LibDems - or any if Clegg loses his seat?
Anyway, that's the number I'll be looking for in the exit poll at 22:01.0 -
Divvie , was quoting non unionist , so adding Green , SSP in his 50% statementPulpstar said:
Less than 45%, almost certainly.MarkHopkins said:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.0 -
Mr. Carnyx, it's not a good comeback.
Several reasons:
1) DUP won't have a huge number of MPs. If Cameron forms a coalition with the DUP, he'll have the largest party by a distance anyway.
2) DUP doesn't want to end the UK, and doesn't have a vested interest in fostering grievance.
3) DUP didn't appear in the leader debates and has had far less coverage than Sturgeon/Salmond.
It's a daft comparison.0 -
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.0 -
Thanks - was wondering why not much discussion of the possibility.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, it's not a good comeback.
Several reasons:
1) DUP won't have a huge number of MPs. If Cameron forms a coalition with the DUP, he'll have the largest party by a distance anyway.
2) DUP doesn't want to end the UK, and doesn't have a vested interest in fostering grievance.
3) DUP didn't appear in the leader debates and has had far less coverage than Sturgeon/Salmond.
It's a daft comparison.
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I very much doubt that France would wish to take a step backwards and adopt our inferior system; French healthcare is far superior to the NHS.MarqueeMark said:
Guinea Bissau would kill for our NHS.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
France? Germany? Canada? Australia? Austria? They might have a problem with patients drinking their flower water....0 -
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.0 -
Where have the Shadow Cabinet been this morning?
Tristam: interview with Attitude....then Battarsea along with Lammy and Thornberry
Khan in Brent Central
Flint in Swansea on a boat trip (to check some kind of project I don't have a clue about) then moving to Cardiff North
Emma Reynolds: Hornsey
Harriet: in her constituency (she informs us that postal votes have arrived in Southwark)
Reeves: morning at the swimming pool, afternoon in her Leeds West
The "London 3 seat challenge" for Sunday is Enfield North/Hornsey/Finchley with Tessa and Tom Watson.
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Erewash not so sure about Labour have a strong team there, Nick likes to boast about his superior backing, not so sure about that but in Erewash Labour have the advantage. If Jess Lee hadn't stood down then I would have expected a hold but without her I think Labour 60/40 favourites.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
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I imagine there is a pretty strong laffer curve on tobacco levying and the benefit of action on tax avoidance that brings in over and above what everyone is already predicting will surely be a little bit down the line.Carnyx said:
To be fair, he did also say a levy on big tobacco and cracking down on tax avoidance.Carnyx said:
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.Pulpstar said:
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.tlg86 said:
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
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Possibly the envy of the third world, since the UK has 'stolen' their nursing staff.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
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Finsborough arms, election night.Peter_the_Punter said:
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.0 -
WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.0 -
Well the French and Germans pay high taxes and devote a lot of it to health care. Canada I've experienced personally and found it very similar to the NHS, but a bit creakier.MarqueeMark said:
Guinea Bissau would kill for our NHS.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
France? Germany? Canada? Australia? Austria? They might have a problem with patients drinking their flower water....
Australia and Austria I wouldn't know about. Spain is good. (Or was last time I tried it.)0 -
Amazing.... Ali Campbell of 45 mins fame makes a single tweet and the left storm in as if it's fact rather than bullshit. Mind you it's a nice expectations management approach I grant you.SouthamObserver said:
As I say, all is fair in politics. I have no problem with the Tories doing what they think is necessary to win. My interest is in the aftermath. If the Tories are committed to the Union they will have some work to do to heal wounds. If they think it will just be forgotten I believe they are deluding themselves. We will find out in a few weeks I guess.Slackbladder said:
Oh my word! pointing out voting for the opposition would lead to chaos!!SouthamObserver said:
Don't forget 25% or so of Scots will vote Labour. The Tories are saying both parties will inflict the chaos, not just the SNP.Slackbladder said:
SO, you're consistantly confusing 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'..SouthamObserver said:
Not sure about that. They signed up to the Vow and it emerged after the vote that Cameron would have resigned if it had gone the other way. They clearly wanted the Union to stay in place. I just don't get why.Theuniondivvie said:
They kept their Generals hidden away from 'ordinary Scots', protected their own small division and let SLab clear the minefields on foot. I wouldn't say they fought particularly hard.SouthamObserver said:Why they bothered to fight so hard for a No vote is a mystery.
Anyone would think there's an election on.
The fact is Miliband and Labour alone lost Scotland and as such has effectively broken the union that has lasted hundreds of years. For Labour to now try and shift the blame rightwards is quite frankly insulting but no more than can be expected from a party that constantly is economical with the actuall.0 -
My book is fine but it's no Pulpstar'sPulpstar said:My book is OK - but it is no @Antifrank
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I once saw an Orange Order march in errm Liverpool I think...Theuniondivvie said:Murphy appealing to 'loyal' support on the streets of Glasgow.
Matthew Moore @mattmoorek 23 minutes ago
In a departure from the rules of campaigning the leader of Scottish Labour is holding a rally on the streets of Glasgow today. #c4news
Matthew Moore @mattmoorek 8 minutes ago
"SNP are wankers," says a man who's just announced he's in the Orange Order.0 -
I can hear the popping of labour heads exploding from here. It's the big issue of the election and labour are stuck on the tip of the spike of the horns of the dilemma. The SNP are gifting the nation a hard far left socialist tax and spend government. 'You know wot? Best vote Tory.'JEO said:
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.Nemtynakht said:
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
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Wasn't there. Or if I was, I don't remember it.Pulpstar said:
Finsborough arms, election night.Peter_the_Punter said:
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.
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It has had a DUP member in the recent past though ...Pulpstar said:
They bloody better, I'm on Maria at 1-6 there !Casino_Royale said:
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though. 0 -
Indeed. I see the letter also claims that the Labour Party created the NHS - as, also, if there was one monolithic NHS. And that the Labour Party is "proving itself ready to reclaim its historic role as Scotland's party of fairness and social justice" - a rather unfortunate wording there.Greenwich_Floater said:
I imagine there is a pretty strong laffer curve on tobacco levying and the benefit of action on tax avoidance that brings in over and above what everyone is already predicting will surely be a little bit down the line.Carnyx said:
To be fair, he did also say a levy on big tobacco and cracking down on tax avoidance.Carnyx said:
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.Pulpstar said:
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.tlg86 said:
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
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Yes, it is.
No evidence to back that one up, of course. What an ignoramus.
I imagine its the NHS is envy of hospital administrators everywhere, though.
Cuddy would be on a fortune.
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Only in your world. In the real world almost every country in Europe and most of the rest of the first world outside the US have health systems that are as good as or (usually) better than the NHS.BenM said:
Yes, it is.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
In the last big comparison we were apparently great at paperwork and talking to the patients but second to last when it came to actually preventing people from dying or making them better when they were ill.
Give me a French, Dutch or Italian health service any day.0 -
could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?0
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Theresa May seems to have been completely absent from the campaign so far.TGOHF said:
Cons wheeling out Major and Boris hitting Thanet - at least freshens up the offering. Labour seem to be using Miliband day after day after day..0 -
Andrea - What is your prediction for Hunky Dinky Dunky ?AndreaParma_82 said:Where have the Shadow Cabinet been this morning?
Tristam: interview with Attitude....then Battarsea along with Lammy and Thornberry
Khan in Brent Central
Flint in Swansea on a boat trip (to check some kind of project I don't have a clue about) then moving to Cardiff North
Emma Reynolds: Hornsey
Harriet: in her constituency (she informs us that postal votes have arrived in Southwark)
Reeves: morning at the swimming pool, afternoon in her Leeds West
The "London 3 seat challenge" for Sunday is Enfield North/Hornsey/Finchley with Tessa and Tom Watson.
Rutland's motto is "Multum In Parvo" - Much In Little - Does that refer to Alan Duncan's disposition or his burgeoning majority ?
0 -
If the NHS is the envy of the world, the coalition must be doing quite well at it???0
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If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.Sean_F said:WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.0 -
"registered voters"malcolmg said:
Divvie , was quoting non unionist , so adding Green , SSP in his 50% statementPulpstar said:
Less than 45%, almost certainly.MarkHopkins said:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
0 -
Good luck to Nick but I wouldnt be taking the fact that my opponent was skipping hustings as a sign she was giving up. Skipping hustings to spend your time more effectively is surely the opposite of giving up.Sean_F said:
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.
0 -
The great unknown is how effective the Tory phone canvassing is being below the radar....Sean_F said:WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.0 -
Marr has laughed it off as "cock up not conspiracy"FrancisUrquhart said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
I'm curious. What sort of cock up results in a completely false quote being cited?
Did they get the name of the person who said it wrong?
Did they get the source wrong?
Did someone make up the quote as a 'joke' and it wasn't caught by quality control?
I'm really struggling to understand Marr's excuse.0 -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/17/announcing-pbs-general-election-night-event-todays-populus-poll/Peter_the_Punter said:
Wasn't there. Or if I was, I don't remember it.Pulpstar said:
Finsborough arms, election night.Peter_the_Punter said:
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.0 -
I took mum at a A&E near Milan last week. They took 5 hours between admission and finale release. But they did lots of exams and checks. Therefore she was satisfied.
Ah, there was a cat in the A&E corridors. Nurses say it is normal. He comes to visit them every day.0 -
Obviously can't speak for the official Kipper position but yes I would have thought that both Scotland and Gib would be perfectly at liberty to have referenda. Not even sure it should be a case of a Westminster Government 'allowing it'. I don't see how they could reasonably stop it.Philip_Thompson said:
If there is a vote to leave that would definitely count as a "major change" and allow the SNP to call a new referendum. I don't think anyone can argue with that.logical_song said:Can the Kippers on here enlighten me.
If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?
Gibraltar I think would be allowed a referendum whenever they want.0 -
I expect, pace 2010, we'll get a slightly fuller story from Nick after the event, win or lose. And that's fair enough.Neil said:
Good luck to Nick but I wouldnt be taking the fact that my opponent was skipping hustings as a sign she was giving up. Skipping hustings to spend your time more effectively is surely the opposite of giving up.Sean_F said:
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.0 -
-
Agreed.Sean_F said:WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.
Candidates always seem to have a Nelsonian eye on their opponents activities.
0 -
He's a practising transvestite (no jokes pls), i.e. he does it because he wants/needs to rather than for showbiz reasons.AndreaParma_82 said:could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?
0 -
Ah, now I understand. Sorry, been away at Rehab for a week and it takes a while to get back into things.Pulpstar said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/17/announcing-pbs-general-election-night-event-todays-populus-poll/Peter_the_Punter said:
Wasn't there. Or if I was, I don't remember it.Pulpstar said:
Finsborough arms, election night.Peter_the_Punter said:
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.
No, I doubt I will be there. I've found in the past that the safest place for me and my finances on Election nite is at home in front of the TV and computer, stone cold sober.
Sorry.0 -
I've already sent my postal vote. Is your on the beg too?JackW said:
Andrea - What is your prediction for Hunky Dinky Dunky ?AndreaParma_82 said:Where have the Shadow Cabinet been this morning?
Tristam: interview with Attitude....then Battarsea along with Lammy and Thornberry
Khan in Brent Central
Flint in Swansea on a boat trip (to check some kind of project I don't have a clue about) then moving to Cardiff North
Emma Reynolds: Hornsey
Harriet: in her constituency (she informs us that postal votes have arrived in Southwark)
Reeves: morning at the swimming pool, afternoon in her Leeds West
The "London 3 seat challenge" for Sunday is Enfield North/Hornsey/Finchley with Tessa and Tom Watson.
Rutland's motto is "Multum In Parvo" - Much In Little - Does that refer to Alan Duncan's disposition or his burgeoning majority ?0 -
When the DUP say this they don't mean the SNP alone, they mean any self-determinist party. So no SDLP or Plaid. Given that SDLP and Plaid have a seat total pretty much the same as the DUP, I think your thinking may be the wrong way round on this.Pulpstar said:Heard the DUP on the Radio this morning - didn't rule anything out other than a coalition with the SNP.
Strong hints that Miliband's life might be made easier if he avoids a deal with the SNP too...
Can see Dodds/Robinson making mincemeat of Miliband or Cameron in any negotiations personally.0 -
Doesn't matter what he says really now the damage is done and it passes into fact. Bit like Ali Campbels bullshit breakup of the Union.Charles said:
Marr has laughed it off as "cock up not conspiracy"FrancisUrquhart said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
I'm curious. What sort of cock up results in a completely false quote being cited?
Did they get the name of the person who said it wrong?
Did they get the source wrong?
Did someone make up the quote as a 'joke' and it wasn't caught by quality control?
I'm really struggling to understand Marr's excuse.
As same happening to UKIP and to the Lib Dems up to a point.
It's getting desperate when the left resort to their normal tricks.0 -
He is a transvestite comedian. Very funny: it's a pity his politics are so tedious.AndreaParma_82 said:could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?
0 -
Strange how Tristram Hunt is never mistakenly referred to as a #unt on the BBC...just cock up not conspiracy.Charles said:
Marr has laughed it off as "cock up not conspiracy"FrancisUrquhart said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
I'm curious. What sort of cock up results in a completely false quote being cited?
Did they get the name of the person who said it wrong?
Did they get the source wrong?
Did someone make up the quote as a 'joke' and it wasn't caught by quality control?
I'm really struggling to understand Marr's excuse.0 -
''The great unknown is how effective the Tory phone canvassing is being below the radar....''
The great unknown is how many labour 'supporters' will turn up to vote for Nick on the day. Indeed - how many who said they would vote for him have even registered.
If the evidence from 2014 is anything to go by, it is fewer than the polls suggest.
0 -
Mr. Punter, hope you're recuperating well.0
-
Left-wing commentary on the NHS never makes much sense.taffys said:If the NHS is the envy of the world, the coalition must be doing quite well at it???
The NHS is simultaneous the best, even though that's not the case, and falling apart at the seams thanks to cuts, which is also untrue. And every election they say "vote Labour to save the NHS", even though the NHS has weathered long periods of Conservative government and the party that is proposing to spend the least (again) is Labour.
0 -
Of course it doesn't matter.Moses_ said:
Doesn't matter what he says really now the damage is done and it passes into fact. Bit like Ali Campbels bullshit breakup of the Union.Charles said:
Marr has laughed it off as "cock up not conspiracy"FrancisUrquhart said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
I'm curious. What sort of cock up results in a completely false quote being cited?
Did they get the name of the person who said it wrong?
Did they get the source wrong?
Did someone make up the quote as a 'joke' and it wasn't caught by quality control?
I'm really struggling to understand Marr's excuse.
As same happening to UKIP and to the Lib Dems up to a point.
It's getting desperate when the left resort to their normal tricks.
But sometimes lies and bullshit need to be called out as that.0 -
ThanksTheuniondivvie said:
He's a practising transvestite (no jokes pls), i.e. he does it because he wants/needs to rather than for showbiz reasons.AndreaParma_82 said:could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?
0 -
0
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Well it would be boring if everyone agreed wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.isam said:This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP.
2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out.
3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.
I think a losing EU referendum would get Ukip many more seats in the following GE. Seems obvious and we have a precedent, but feel free to disagree0 -
If any read Palmer's comments here, they might not even bother leaving the house since his win is already in the bag.taffys said:''The great unknown is how effective the Tory phone canvassing is being below the radar....''
The great unknown is how many labour 'supporters' will turn up to vote for Nick on the day. Indeed - how many who said they would vote for him have even registered.
If the evidence from 2014 is anything to go by, it is fewer than the polls suggest.0 -
I think we know Mr Marr's reaction if someone said something about him he felt was inappropriate.....Charles said:
Marr has laughed it off as "cock up not conspiracy"FrancisUrquhart said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/
I'm curious. What sort of cock up results in a completely false quote being cited?
Did they get the name of the person who said it wrong?
Did they get the source wrong?
Did someone make up the quote as a 'joke' and it wasn't caught by quality control?
I'm really struggling to understand Marr's excuse.0 -
Left-wing commentary on the NHS never makes much sense.
There was a fascinating article I posted the other day from City AM which had stats showing that 15 million people use some sort of private care at some time for something. Private GP appointment, physio, routine op, mental illness etc. etc.
That's a quarter of the population.
0 -
"Terrible things will happen if my opponent doesn't get enough votes" is an epicly crap political argument so it's not obvious that Labour should be trying to think up their own version of it. Also Labour may end up wanting to cut a deal with the DUP themselves.Carnyx said:
Are Labour retaliating with the likely Tory dependence on the DUP? Iain Macwhirter points out tha t in general there is no discussion of "them holding David Cameron to ransom".JEO said:
Is the Labour argument that the Conservatives are "scaremongering" against the SNP or that they're "bigging up" the SNP? They seem to be making both arguments even though they are mutually contradictory.Nemtynakht said:
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/5904452702379008010 -
A minority Tory gov would permit a refreshed and balanced and all Tory cabinet including Boris. It would be well placed to fight a fresh election. The economy would continue and the autumn brings effectively another budget.Artist said:If no one can form a government I think both parties would be happy for the Conservatives to run a minority government until a second election. This is because the Conservatives would want Cameron to fight the second election, whilst Labour would want a new leader.
0 -
I'm not bothering trying to make a book out of this election.Alistair said:
My book is fine but it's no Pulpstar'sPulpstar said:My book is OK - but it is no @Antifrank
If every bet under evens settles as a winner, I'd probably just about break even. I just need a few bets currently over evens to win and I'll make a fair bit - & if any of the 4/1 & aboves win, I'll be a very happy man.
0 -
Apparently nearly 500k people registered to vote yesterday. Well 500k applications ;-) ...vote early, vote often.0
-
Do we have numbers on the registered electorate compared to 2010 now ?0
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In 2014 the NHS employed 377,191 qualified nursing staff.Moses_ said:I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!
0 -
In on 5 or under UKIP MPs.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.isam said:This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP.
2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out.
3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.
After the GE assuming that Cameron remains PM and that we have a referendum, how will UKIP put their case?
"Vote for Britain to leave the EU (and for Scotland to leave the UK)"
Maybe they should change their name to 'EIP'.0 -
It's comical but it's been happening since 19th September. Unionists blaring the "stop rerunning the referendum", pro-Scotland voices going "umm, we aren't, we want our voice heard at Westminster", then Unionists finishing with "you can't be independent because X and Y and Z and P and Q..."Pulpstar said:
The only people making noises about the referendum are the unionists ! Listened to Radio 4 and 5 this morning:Dair said:This John Major intervention seems to be the Tories version of wheeling out Gordon Brown.
It's the most bizarre "let's re-run the referendum" speech so far.
"SNP... SNP... SNP...SNP"0 -
Bloody Hell. Stay on the wagon mate.Peter_the_Punter said:
Ah, now I understand. Sorry, been away at Rehab for a week and it takes a while to get back into things.Pulpstar said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/17/announcing-pbs-general-election-night-event-todays-populus-poll/Peter_the_Punter said:
Wasn't there. Or if I was, I don't remember it.Pulpstar said:
Finsborough arms, election night.Peter_the_Punter said:
Que? No comprendo.Pulpstar said:
Heading to Stonch's btw ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought that too.Pulpstar said:
I'd agree with that assessment... what does that bring the seat totals to ?Sean_F said:Among the seats on Barnseian's list, I'd expect Gloucester, Worcester, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Loughborough, Kingswood, High Peak, Norwich North, Erewash, Stevenage, Pendle, Vale of Glamorgan, Great Yarmouth, Swindon South to remain in the Conservative column. Thurrock is a toss-up.
Those certainly seem to be the seats where the Con vote is holding up well. At a guess, I'd say it puts the seat total around 285.
No, I doubt I will be there. I've found in the past that the safest place for me and my finances on Election nite is at home in front of the TV and computer, stone cold sober.
Sorry.0 -
It is like his claims for hiring more home care staff. Above and beyond, unlike the NHS, he can't just hire them (as most of homecare is outsourced on private contracts, which was massive expanded under Labour), the numbers were a total drop in the bucket. But I didn't see anybody call him out on his claims that somehow they transform the system with a loads of extra contact time for each person with a few 1000 extra home carers.botanically_speaking said:
In 2014 the NHS employed 377,191 qualified nursing staff.Moses_ said:I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!0 -
That must be at least 2 extra nurses per hospital.botanically_speaking said:
In 2014 the NHS employed 377,191 qualified nursing staff.Moses_ said:I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!0 -
As a Conservative Unionist I share your concerns. SLAB are deeply unattractive as an organisation and have been a blight on Scottish public life for far too long.geoffw said:fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup.
Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.
But for me ultimately the Unionist part is more important. Governments come and go. PM Miliband will be a disaster and cause moderate damage to the UK in the way that Labour governments usually do but he is unlikely to be around long enough to do anything like as much damage as the last Labour government did, especially if he is dependent on people as fundamentally dishonest and delusional as the SNP. But the Union is forever.
It is a horrible choice but in Edinburgh South I would vote Labour. In Dundee West I need some evidence that it would not be a pointless gesture to do so and I have not seen it yet. I am canvassing and working in Perth and North Perthshire to offset any guilt I might feel if I eventually decide to vote tactically.
0 -
I do love labour's shrill complaints about the tory line on the SNP.
Like middle England wouldn't notice if they did a deal to lord it over Albion with a party that wants to smash the union.
0 -
A quick Google says that the UK population is growing at 0.6% per annum, which amply demonstrates the facile nature of Ed's plans.botanically_speaking said:The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!
0 -
''That must be at least 2 extra nurses per hospital. ''
Sorry, one of those is on long term sick leave with stress.0 -
Regional variances will be key, Tories should go well in the East Midlands but may really struggle in the North West. Nick in spite of the impression he gives on here has a tough fight, he should just win but Soubry has something extra about her that could pull those undecided voters.antifrank said:
If the seats fall uniformly by reference to their odds (and if on the same odds, by reference to the swing required to take them), then if Nick Palmer fails to win, Labour will have fewer than 237 seats.Sean_F said:WRT Broxtowe, I'd expect Nick P to win (let's face it, it will be a very bad night for Labour if he doesn't).
But, my suspicion is that Anna Soubry is working it far harder than he thinks.0 -
My father-in-law said the other day (his wife works in the NHS) "Obviously everyone in the NHS is going to vote labour - well you would".Sandpit said:
In the minds of Ed and his friends, it really is.currystar said:Eds speech, "the NHS the envy of the world" Really???
Despite Andy Burnham and Stafford hospital.
So how come no other Western country copies this envious system?
I said, "what even after Stafford?" Blank look. Then some comment about the tories privatising it. I found a chart showing that the last lab govt had increased private provision more than the Tories have. "Well Blair was Tory-lite wasn't he?" and some chuckles.
The feeling that somehow Lab are the party of the NHS is massively entrenched. Sigh
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@AndreaParma_82 This is one of his best known monologues - Death Star Canteen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv5iEK-IEzw0
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Or to show off really as he loves being centre of attention perhaps.Theuniondivvie said:
He's a practising transvestite (no jokes pls), i.e. he does it because he wants/needs to rather than for showbiz reasons.AndreaParma_82 said:could you remind me what Eddie Izzard is famous for? Why does he always go out on labourdoorstep dressed like a woman? Did he get famous playing a female character and so is he re-doing his character?
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Miliband is just weaponising the NHS. Cheap nasty and dishonest. 'awful people'.botanically_speaking said:
In 2014 the NHS employed 377,191 qualified nursing staff.Moses_ said:I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
The emergency 1000 nurses will save the NHS. As i always say at work, we could transform the company with 0.26% more staff. Transform!
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