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This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.0 -
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.0 -
To confirm: £10 even money you win at 3+ seats for UKIP, I win at 0, 1 or 2. Charity bet.isam said:
Ok yes you're on, good luckCharles said:
£10 charity bet?isam said:Sporting bet are under over 2.5 Ukip seats
I see many on here are forecasting Ukip will get 2 seats
If anyone wants to split the over round and have a straight even money bet, I will take 3 or more
Best odds available in the world... Even money Ukip under 2.5
Your size is my size
Roll up roll up
I reckon only Carswell will win.0 -
I am still not sure why the market is moving towards a Labour Minority government [ EICIPM ].
They must be assuming that the Lib Dem will not play any part in any coalition with any party after what they have gone through.0 -
Barnesian,
Cardiff N is certainly likely to go Labour, but Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is unlikely.
If I recollect, the Labour poster valleyboy is an activist in this seat, and he was pessimistic about Labour retaking either this or next-door Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I suspect the only seats changing in Wales will be Cardiff N and Cardiff C.
And even those are not slam dunks, as the Labour Council in Cardiff is struggling with cuts, but I suspect they will both tilt to Labour.0 -
macisback said:
Interesting Jack has changed his Broxtowe prediction, as the information I have heard is the Conservatives are very confident they can hold, even more so in Amber Valley. .
Lolz.NickPalmer said:
Pleased to see JackW's swing! I do expect to win by a reasonable margin, and there are signs that the Tories have stopped bothering seriously0 -
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.AndyJS said:O/T:
The Japanese are pressing ahead with new MagLev systems while we procrastinate despite the technology having been developed in the UK:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/21/japans-maglev-train-notches-up-new-world-speed-record-in-test-run
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai–Hangzhou_Maglev_Line
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_brake#Conversion_to_electric_energy:_the_motor_as_a_generator0 -
They will probably get 56 - and each of the Westminster parties 1 each.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.0 -
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.Greenwich_Floater said:
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
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Maglev is a show off piece. I am surprised Dubai has not got one yet going from Dubai to nowhere in particular.JosiasJessop said:
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.AndyJS said:O/T:
The Japanese are pressing ahead with new MagLev systems while we procrastinate despite the technology having been developed in the UK:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/21/japans-maglev-train-notches-up-new-world-speed-record-in-test-run
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai–Hangzhou_Maglev_Line
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_brake#Conversion_to_electric_energy:_the_motor_as_a_generator0 -
Lol, rural North Yorkshire unable to cope with a bit of diversity?MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.0 -
Yes sireeeCharles said:
To confirm: £10 even money you win at 3+ seats for UKIP, I win at 0, 1 or 2. Charity bet.isam said:
Ok yes you're on, good luckCharles said:
£10 charity bet?isam said:Sporting bet are under over 2.5 Ukip seats
I see many on here are forecasting Ukip will get 2 seats
If anyone wants to split the over round and have a straight even money bet, I will take 3 or more
Best odds available in the world... Even money Ukip under 2.5
Your size is my size
Roll up roll up
I reckon only Carswell will win.0 -
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my partisam said:
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.Greenwich_Floater said:
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think they will get 6-7 seats personally
Hope so as I am on 5 or more, not very confident but think they may nick a couple up North
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Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my partisam said:
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.Greenwich_Floater said:
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?0 -
doneisam said:
Yes sireeeCharles said:
To confirm: £10 even money you win at 3+ seats for UKIP, I win at 0, 1 or 2. Charity bet.isam said:
Ok yes you're on, good luckCharles said:
£10 charity bet?isam said:Sporting bet are under over 2.5 Ukip seats
I see many on here are forecasting Ukip will get 2 seats
If anyone wants to split the over round and have a straight even money bet, I will take 3 or more
Best odds available in the world... Even money Ukip under 2.5
Your size is my size
Roll up roll up
I reckon only Carswell will win.0 -
There must be a chance of both the LibDems and the Tories getting more Scottish seats than Labour.Greenwich_Floater said:
They will probably get 56 - and each of the Westminster parties 1 each.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
Karma.
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I'd love it to be practical, but at the moment it is not.surbiton said:
Maglev is a show off piece. I am surprised Dubai has not got one yet going from Dubai to nowhere in particular.JosiasJessop said:
High-speed Maglev is (currently) a dead-end technology. Which is why the Germans are demolishing their test track and have no plans for a production system.AndyJS said:O/T:
The Japanese are pressing ahead with new MagLev systems while we procrastinate despite the technology having been developed in the UK:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/21/japans-maglev-train-notches-up-new-world-speed-record-in-test-run
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid
It's also why the only production high-speed system in Shanghai mostly travels well below its maximum speed. The Chinese have also cancelled the extension of that line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai–Hangzhou_Maglev_Line
Until energy becomes much cheaper, then Maglev is a practical non-starter, especially given its incompatibility with other transport systems.
(As an aside, one of the things that makes high-speed rail economic is regenerative braking, where the train used brakes that generates power back into the grid. Can Maglevs regeneratively brake?)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_brake#Conversion_to_electric_energy:_the_motor_as_a_generator0 -
SNP support for Ed, as and when they feel like it.surbiton said:I am still not sure why the market is moving towards a Labour Minority government [ EICIPM ].
They must be assuming that the Lib Dem will not play any part in any coalition with any party after what they have gone through.
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If he would smell of fish , that would be OK. But curry, God forbid !MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.0 -
Such arrogance and complacency, if you were really that confident you wouldn't be saying too much.NickPalmer said:
Pleased to see JackW's swing! I do expect to win by a reasonable margin, and there are signs that the Tories have stopped bothering seriously - AS is skipping the next two hustings events, Tory canvass groups are typically 3-5 people, and total Tory poster count has staggered up to 3 (one of the Conservative clubs finally put one up) to Labour's 800.Casino_Royale said:
How so? In his confidence he will win, or Labour will win?antifrank said:
I like the "tick tock" posts. They are posts which have relevance for political betting.
I don't feel any of us on here need a day to day countdown to the General Election. We all know when it is.
The tick-tock posts are of course mainly a tease, and I've teased enough: now that the postal votes are here. I'll give them a rest. The underlying observation that Labour will form the next government if the Conservatives don't break through soon does however remain valid.
On Cambridge, I think i've said before that I have no personal knowledge. It simply strikes me as the sort of seat where there will be maximium Red Liberal presence, unlike some of the LibDem seats in the west country where LibDem votes are not that political. But Ashcroft's poll in the seat suggests otherwise, so punters shouldn't attach special importance to my thoughts on that.
Certainly the Tories are bothering and they will get plenty of bodies out, not as many as you but quality is more important than quantity.
If you think it is in the bag great but I don't believe it.
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If you like odds against independents, the Isle of Wight may be relevant to your interests.MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
Not for me though.0 -
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my partisam said:
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.Greenwich_Floater said:
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May0 -
I expect Labour to take all 4 of the Notts marginals. Amber Valley would be the tightest.0
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Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.0 -
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my partisam said:
If UKIP can GOTV they could do well in percentage terms.Greenwich_Floater said:
This time last year Ukip were averaging around 13%. People on here were saying that was inflated because of the upcoming euro elections and that they would dramatically fall back afterwardsisam said:
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 2015
A year later and Ukip are polling higher... There are two weeks to go and the same faces are still saying 'I expect them to fall back to...'
Incredible mindset, quite thought provoking
They are weighted down heavily in the polls due to having large numbers of DNV in the previous elections.
In any event, I suspect their ceiling for this election in terms of seats is still in single figures.
Ironically, the SNP situation might not be damaging for UKIP. I suspect for every ex-tory in the south and east that is spooked back to the blue camp, UKIP might pick up a labour vote in the north and midlands that are on the same issue.
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
I reckon 7 seats gives UKIP around a 10 or so % chance of critical relevance.0 -
It is by far the weakest part of his arse.antifrank said:I see that the SNP have now hit 40 with JackW. That still looks quite a bit on the low side to me, I have to say. There's no sign of any kind of reduction in SNP support (if anything, the reverse) and only the Edinburgh South poll gave any kind of hint of tactical voting.
0 -
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces0 -
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?Barnesian said:
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.0 -
The drop in UKIP support has been exaggerated. IIRC their highest ever polling average on UKPR was 16%. They're now on 14%. That's not a big decline by any standards.I think UKIP's past poll peaks have come _after_ election results too, rather than during the campaigns.AndyJS said:
I wouldn't.Pulpstar said:
I'd be surprised if they get less than 5.AndyJS said:
How many UKIP seats do you now forecast Mike? I forecast 2.TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP rising!MikeK said:This is the reality of #UKIP support throughout the country, 100 yard queues and full to capacity 'Public' meetings. pic.twitter.com/D4s0ODSq8c
— Charlton Edwards (@Charlton_UKIP) April 21, 20150 -
Before I get excoriated I know AV is in Derbys....Monksfield said:I expect Labour to take all 4 of the Notts marginals. Amber Valley would be the tightest.
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I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.isam said:
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!Philip_Thompson said:
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?isam said:Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?0 -
@MikeSmithson The other interesting independent is Claire Wright in East Devon, who's a local councillor. It's one of the few constituencies where the Greens aren't standing and she seems well-poised to pick up the protest vote that previously went Lib Dem. More information on her would be much-appreciated.0
-
I'm only on at 2.87 but I concur with this statement.antifrank said:
Those of us with 25/1 bets on the SNP in Edinburgh South encourage you to share your thought processes with your neighbours.geoffw said:fpt, @Tissue_Price "I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people."
yup.
Tactical voting, Edinburgh South.
Ashcroft shows the SNP coming to the lead from nowhere to lead the SLAB incumbent Ian Murray by a short head. The LDs who came second last time have dropped right back. The Conservatives remain third with roughly the same percentage as 2010.
I'm a Conservative unionist, so should I hold my nose and vote "tactically"? I have concluded not, because from my perspective there's really not much difference between SNP and SLAB: if Labour does get into office they will dance to the SNP tune anyway. So to give heart to the Cons in the next election I shall eschew tactics and vote according to my true preferences.
However if Murray wins the seat I'll be pleased that he has saved Roger's bacon.0 -
Rallings and Thrasher also predicted UKIP to gain 400 local election seats.Pulpstar said:I reckon 7 seats gives UKIP around a 10 or so % chance of critical relevance.
0 -
I have Carmarthen West at 56 out of my 60 seats with a Lab majority of 300. TCTC.YBarddCwsc said:Barnesian,
Cardiff N is certainly likely to go Labour, but Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South is unlikely.
If I recollect, the Labour poster valleyboy is an activist in this seat, and he was pessimistic about Labour retaking either this or next-door Preseli Pembrokeshire.
I suspect the only seats changing in Wales will be Cardiff N and Cardiff C.
And even those are not slam dunks, as the Labour Council in Cardiff is struggling with cuts, but I suspect they will both tilt to Labour.0 -
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.0 -
I got three more leaflets this morning, from the Tories, UKIP, and TUSC, none of whom have any real chance here, in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough. A Labour loss would need a major political earthquake.
The Tories and UKIP both only sent an A% card, but TUSC splashed out on a A3 poster.
The Tory leaflet has the 'coalition of chaos' poster on one side. The other side has the candidate's name, ELise Dunweber, her picture, and three bullet points, 'striving to increase the standard of living', 'improving education, prioritising the NHS and supporting the police', 'supporting democracy and ensuring funding promised from the North comes to Sheffield'.
UKIPS's leaflet has four bullet points on one side - 'control our border','invest in the NHS', 'fairer tax system', spend here, not abroad' - and the candidate's name, photo, and biography on the other side,. He's John Booker, a former engineer who's been running a small business for the last 30 years.
Tusc's poster can be folded in half and put in the window. The rest of it has the usual pictures of their candidate, Maxine Bowler, and plenty of lefti wing rhetoric: 'We live in a sham democracy' 'tax the rich, don't blame the poor', 'bosses, politicians and the media have tried to divide working class people against each other by blaming the poor, the disabled, the elderly and immigrants'.
TUSC's poster has a blatantly cherry-picked comparison of the recovery time from the last recession with three previous ones, in 1874, 1921, and 1976. If they have to go back 140 years to find three times with faster recovery, the current government can't be doing too badly.
Another interesting TUSC claim is 'for every £1 of NHS contracts sold, 15p has been contracted to Tory supporters.' Since Tory support has never been as low as 15%, this implies Tory supporters are less likely than average to benefit from NHS contracts, not quite the message TUSC intended.0 -
Loughborough is safe, High Peak is in play. The excellent Bet365 (Whose odds are a decent guide) are top price Labour there though, so at Evens I'd take the Tories.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Loughborough
High Peak0 -
Highly unlikely. However Northallerton has lost an awful lot of jobs over the past year...Monksfield said:
Lol, rural North Yorkshire unable to cope with a bit of diversity?MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.0 -
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.0 -
Broxtowe has edged into the "Likely Lab Gain" column .... just .... somewhat like when it edged into the "Likely Con Hold" column a few weeks ago .... just.macisback said:Interesting Jack has changed his Broxtowe prediction, as the information I have heard is the Conservatives are very confident they can hold, even more so in Amber Valley. Both I predict will be mighty close again.
A move of little over a few hundred votes enables Broxtowe and others like it to move columns - the parameters of which are quite narrow.
Essentially Broxtowe is tight as a tick .... or tock as Nick Palmer would say.
0 -
Casino_Royale said:
@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
0 -
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.0 -
Alistair Darling this morning, apart from blunderbussing Jim on the radio, was essentially saying:
"Will people all please see sense and vote Labour."0 -
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.Pulpstar said:
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.0 -
Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.0 -
They bloody better, I'm on Maria at 1-6 there !Casino_Royale said:
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.0 -
This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds onPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not trying to be sarcastic or mean, its a serious question.isam said:
If it makes you feel good for me to say 1% of something is insignificant then I will say it, I am a nice guy!Philip_Thompson said:
So you expect they'll gain 1% of Westminster's seats?isam said:Yes there seems to be an assumption from supporters of the established Westminster parties that Ukip will just go away and even if they don't, 13% or so will only result in 2-3 seats... I think that's complete wishful thinking, but of course that may be wishful thinking on my part
They used the same arguments in clacton, Rochester and the euros which makes me quite confident though
I think ukip will get 6-7 seats personally
Do you accept that's pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
I'm sure an unmeasurable increase from one GE to the next is pretty good though, or a trebling of the MPs from April to May
How many seats do you think UKIP will need to achieve for their MPs to have a significant effect in Parliament. Do you expect this to be achieved over a couple of Parliament's with this being a launch-pad for next time? Or do you expect something else?
I've heard from some they think UKIP will get a lot of second places this time and could get more MPs in 2020 as a result, I'm curious what you think. Is this a long-game, or is this more for this election?
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 20100 -
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.Pulpstar said:
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?Barnesian said:
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).0 -
Less than 45%, almost certainly.MarkHopkins said:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.0 -
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.Monksfield said:Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.0 -
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces0 -
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?Pulpstar said:
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.Monksfield said:Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.0 -
As in 2010 are you and your feather boas tripping the light fantastic up to Broxtowe to ensure it remains close to my ARSE present prediction of a "Likely Labour Gain" ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.Pulpstar said:
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
0 -
The Bristol/Somerset area seems to be great for the Tories (See Somerset NE too). That could help Labour mind in Bristol West as Tories stay blue and don't tactically vote Lib Dem.Barnesian said:
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.Pulpstar said:
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?Barnesian said:
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).
I'm on in all the Bristol seats, laying the Lib Dems essentially in Bristol West.0 -
Did they say who the challenger party is?Casino_Royale said:
My source at CCHQ mentioned after a meeting last week with Crosby and Feldman that Basingstoke had been mentioned. I assumed it was a typo in his text, so asked him to confirm. It's in no way a marginal seat and it seemed weird that it had been mentioned.MikeSmithson said:Does anybody have info about what's happening in Hague's old seat - Richmond in Yorkshire.
I'm told that a lot of money is being placed on an independent , Richard Scott, who has now moved in to 7/1 with some bookies.
He has made a call to other candidates to stand aside so it would be a straight fight between him and the new Tory - Rishi Sunak.
http://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/12885227.UPDATED__Richmond_General_Election_candidates_reject__step_aside__request_from_independent/
Surely there's no way that Sunak can be beaten but something might be going on.
He said no typo, absolutely correct. There's been a big backlash against Maria Miller there. However, it had been privately polled and canvassed and they were confident it would be ok and she'd hang on.
The very fact they were worried about it in the first place is interesting though.0 -
I bought Ukip on the spreads at 0.5 there... Speculative but seemed worth a puntBarnesian said:
Yes - Kingswood is very unusual as the Ashcroft Poll suggests an increased Con majority! The LD vote has collapsed but not gone to Lab. Very hard to interpret. There is obviously a local story.Pulpstar said:
What does your model show if you manually adjust it for individual seat polling though ?Barnesian said:
Although I said Enfield N is TCTC, that was a mistake (wrong line). I have it down as a 2,500 Lab majority. It is number 28 out of my 60 Lab gains from Con.MaxPB said:
There is no way Labour make 285 with no seats in Scotland and without making marginal gains like Enfield North. If Labour don't gain Enfield North then it is going to be a very long night for them. It is a must gain of Labour are going to be the biggest party especially now that they are going to get done over in Scotland. Though not as badly as you think, the SNP aren't going to sweep all 59 seats.Barnesian said:
I agree with all those except Enfield North which I think is TCTC.
It is very odd that we agree on these "13 seats that will shape the General Election result " yet we differ greatly on the overall result. I have :
... share ... seats
Con ... 33.8% ... 252
Lab ... 34.0% ... 285
LD ... 8.3% ... 30
SNP ... 4.3% ...59
UKIP ...13.8% ...2
Grn ... 5.2% ...1
My shares are very close to the latest ELBOW and the prediction is a "nowcast".
Strange that we agree on these 13. We must disagree on a lot of others.
I have 36 gains with a majority of over 2000 and 11 with majorities of less than 1000. Some I know are wrong eg Dover with Lab majority of 77 where UKIP are hitting Lab particularly hard - but I don't have special cases like that in my model.
I agree the 59 for SNP in Scotland looks unlikely (Orkney?) and a few are very close but it could easily be 55.
For instance Kingswood looks like a Tory hold.
I have started putting the Ashcroft local polls into my spreadsheet to check consistency. Most are consistent but some are definitely not. If I have time, I will do a version of my model that substitutes the Ashcroft Poll where known for the mathematical prediciton (or perhaps halve the difference).0 -
You've seen the Ashcroft poll I take it ?Monksfield said:
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?Pulpstar said:
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.Monksfield said:Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.0 -
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/andrew-marr-admits-bbc-misquoted-david-cameron-on-foxhunting/
Not the first time Marr has used dirty tricks, sorry I mean made a terrible mistake, when interviewing Cameron. Remember the ohh woopphs we have flashed up the embarrassing Bullingdon photo right in his face, just as Cameron was about to answer a tough question.
Also, just wondering when does this legal requirement to be absolutely 110% balanced over election coverage start? 8th May?
http://order-order.com/2015/04/21/bbc-website-balance-is-a-joke/0 -
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
0 -
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?0 -
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.tlg86 said:
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
0 -
That's not what you said originally, statement pre-weaselling:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
'The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties.'
'Are you sure of that?'
'Yes.'
Bet is on whether SNPGreenSSP get higher percentage of votes than LibLabConUKIP, and at a price that reflects your certainty, say 6/4 against?
0 -
Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?0 -
Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.0
-
Wishful thinking for me, because that's all my christmases come at once with my book.Sandpit said:Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?0 -
Tories will never elect Hammond as leader if they are hoping for a 2nd election this year, in fact it is unlikely they will ever choose him.Sandpit said:Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?0 -
Derby County are very well represented on here. Heartening. One thing it is worth considering is Labour appear to have sent their first elector address out already a couple of weeks ago. The Tories have waited until the end of the campaign to do it, no doubt a large focus will be the SNP.peter_from_putney said:
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
0 -
My usual two day trip will commence shortly.JackW said:
As in 2010 are you and your feather boas tripping the light fantastic up to Broxtowe to ensure it remains close to my ARSE present prediction of a "Likely Labour Gain" ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, Divvie has a high credit rating, but email me anyway.Pulpstar said:
He will pay up, I can vouch for him.Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
Or will Broxtowe fall by the wayside as you fail to deliver the cross dresser vote for Nick Palmer ?
PB should be told as the punting implications are vital !!
I'd assumed it was this that caused you to flip Broxtowe into the Labour Gain column.0 -
It's kind of what I hope for but the other way round. It's going to be the 'after you' election.Sandpit said:Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?0 -
Can the Kippers on here enlighten me.
If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?0 -
Heard the DUP on the Radio this morning - didn't rule anything out other than a coalition with the SNP.
Strong hints that Miliband's life might be made easier if he avoids a deal with the SNP too...
Can see Dodds/Robinson making mincemeat of Miliband or Cameron in any negotiations personally.0 -
Ed visited Luffy the other day - Labour must think it is still in play.Barnesian said:
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces0 -
That's a bit unfair. Mr Royale's actual assertion was "The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties", so the onus is the other way round, surely.MarkHopkins said:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
0 -
Any polls today apart from the usual YouGov?0
-
LOL, not far off my book too, hence the sanity check!Pulpstar said:
Wishful thinking for me, because that's all my christmases come at once with my book.Sandpit said:Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
I can see Cameron preferring the exit to the chaos having served his time, whereas Mili would definitely want the power. I can imagine Cam play the nice guy and abstain the Speech on condition that the deficit reduction stuff is all in there "So as not to spook the markets", then walk away after the QS leaving Mili badly exposed to the Left flank of his own party as well as the SNP and greens.0 -
In cities it goes SNPMonksfield said:
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?Pulpstar said:
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.Monksfield said:Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.0 -
If no one can form a government I think both parties would be happy for the Conservatives to run a minority government until a second election. This is because the Conservatives would want Cameron to fight the second election, whilst Labour would want a new leader.0
-
I take the point. Still think it'll be closer than Ashcroft found.Pulpstar said:
You've seen the Ashcroft poll I take it ?Monksfield said:
Depends how the LibDem vote splits - unionist or nationalist?Pulpstar said:
Glasgow N - No chance of Labour holding that.Monksfield said:Scotland: I still find it hard to believe Labour can't win 10; the evidence of sindy suggests that the polls will overstate SNP a little so I've still got a few seats in the lean Lab column. It may be dependent on some tactical voting but....
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Coatbridge
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh SW
Edinburgh W
Glasgow N
Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy
Motherwell
Paisley S
East Renfrew
I also think the Tories could win Dumfries & Galloway just by holding their share at about 33.
The difficulty with Scotland is the difference in swing between Lab winning 5 and 20 is so relatively small.
0 -
I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?0 -
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.Pulpstar said:
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.tlg86 said:
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
0 -
I was in High Peak last weekend, sources on both sides expect a comfortable Tory hold, not surprising the demographics are in their favour more and more and the MP for a politician is highly respected locally. He was prepared to go against his party leadership to fight for his constituents. Add to that he has a lot of experienced backing behind him, Edwina lives there now and she has used her influence behind the scenes.Barnesian said:
Ashcroft has a small Lab lead in High Peak but agrees with you on Loughborough. I have no local knowledge.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces
Lordy's work has been interesting but I wouldn't take too much notice of that High Peak poll, certainly if you are putting money on. If you can get Evens for the Conservatives in High Peak it must be the bet of the election.
0 -
In the first paragraph is uses the figure for the Supplementary Charge as the total for Oil and Gas revenue. It's the typical economic illiteracy of the Loyalist mind - if the figures don't support their argument they make them up.Patrick said:Southam,
thanks for sharing the Chokkablog analysis. It's excellent and destoys the economic case for independence.0 -
Carnyx said:
That's a bit unfair. Mr Royale's actual assertion was "The majority of Scots will still be voting for unionist parties", so the onus is the other way round, surely.MarkHopkins said:Casino_Royale said:@uniondivvie - I'm happy to offer you £20 at evens that the SNP polls less than 50% of registered voters in Scotland.
If you're happy with that, please register with Peter the Punter. No offence but I don't know you personally or your betting record.
It's very likely for SNP to poll less than 50% of registered voters, given likely turnout numbers.
It seems that the assertion and the bet offer went in different directions.
0 -
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.0 -
I'm not so sure. Three very big differences.isam said:This election is a small stepping stone I think... You have to remember that a year ago, Ukip getting zero seats was big odds on
It's true that the SNP rise has over shadowed Ukip but I would expect had there been an EU referendum last September, Ukip would be in for 30-40 seats now.. The SNP basicLly had 6 months of party political broadcasts and media attention for free pre Indy ref, that's why they are doing do brilliantly now
So along with the 2nd places, I think about 70-80, if there is a referendum in 2018 or whenever, we could see a similar surge to that of the SNP next time
I think 6-7 Ukip MPs this time could well have significant effect. It would encourage more defectors, and get our agenda in the debate. The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
1: The biggest difference between SNP and UKIP is that SNP are in government in Holyrood, there is no equivalence with UKIP.
2: The referendum was sharply divided and close, whereas I expect an EU referendum (like the AV referendum) to be overwhelmingly rejected 2:1 In vs Out.
3: Finally the Scottish referendum was only a few months ago and fit directly into the build up for the General Election whereas if a 2017 referendum happens it would be years before a 2020 election.0 -
Moses_ said:
I note from this mornings Metro Page 7 that Ed apparently going to save the NHS in 100 days as soon as he gets in power. To start with on Day 1 he will launch an "emergency" recruitment drive of a 1000 nurses. How is this to be paid for? By the Mansion tax of course !!!
How many times has that now been used to fund different projects?
I thought the mansion tax was for Scottish nurses?
0 -
Maybe I will have to, I hear the Newcastle deal is done but perhaps on recent performance they will get cold feet and bail out.peter_from_putney said:
Oh I don't know .... I hear they have serious injury problems.macisback said:
There is as much chance of me playing for Derby County on Saturday as Labour taking High Peak or Loughborough in the coming election. Those 2 unless there is a major change in landscape in the coming weeks are certain Conservative holds.Barnesian said:Pulpstar: Here are the other 40.
Elmet a
Enfield North
Erewash
Glouces
Great Y
Haleso
Harrow East
Hasting
Hendon
High Pe
Hove
Ipswich
Keighle
Kingsw
Lancast
Lincoln
Loughb
Milton S
Moreca
Norwic
Nuneat
Pendle
Plymou
Pudsey
Rossen
Sherwo
Stevena
Stockto
Stroud
Swindo S
Thurroc
Vale of Glamorgan
Warring
Warwic N
Warwick & Leamington
Waven
Weaver
Wirral W
Wolver
Worces
Btw will you be changing your name to machasgoneagain in a month's time?
0 -
Some excellent photoshopping.
Cool Ed Miliband @cooledmiliband 12h12 hours ago
Ed Bowie by @StcrevDavid #HellYesEd #CoolEdMiliband http://tinyurl.com/o3t42d30 -
Not if last night's Newsnight interview with Evan Davis is anything to go by. He looked tired, uncertain and far from convincingBenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
0 -
If there is a vote to leave that would definitely count as a "major change" and allow the SNP to call a new referendum. I don't think anyone can argue with that.logical_song said:Can the Kippers on here enlighten me.
If a referendum happens in the next parliament and the vote is to leave, would Scotland be allowed another referendum on independence as they are keen to stay in the European Union. Gibraltar is also keen to stay in the EU, should they be allowed a vote in the referendum?
Gibraltar I think would be allowed a referendum whenever they want.
0 -
By my reckoniong, the Tories need a minimum of 280 seats to have any chance of passing a Queens Speech:
Con 280 + LD 30 + Prods 10 + Kippers 3 = 323
But could they rely on all of the LibDems - or any if Clegg loses his seat?
Anyway, that's the number I'll be looking for in the exit poll at 22:01.0 -
Independence fundamentalist cannot deal with reality shock. I am not sure if you are trolling or if you are genuinely so blinded by the desire to build an international border that you are incapable of coping with anything that might make it a little harder to achieve.Dair said:
In the first paragraph is uses the figure for the Supplementary Charge as the total for Oil and Gas revenue. It's the typical economic illiteracy of the Loyalist mind - if the figures don't support their argument they make them up.Patrick said:Southam,
thanks for sharing the Chokkablog analysis. It's excellent and destoys the economic case for independence.0 -
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
0 -
Indeed, the "After You" election.Monksfield said:
It's kind of what I hope for but the other way round. It's going to be the 'after you' election.Sandpit said:Reading through the overnight threads and the various wargames over a deadlocked Parliament, how does this scenario sound?
1. Con+LD = Lab+SNP = 312-315
2. Cameron resigns, promising Ed that he will abstain the Queen's speech.
3. Ed takes the opportunity to go visit HMQ, gets the Speech through but then faces absolute gridlock with nothing else close to passing, with the market reaction to the deadlock as expected. Meanwhile the Tories find themselves a new leader, maybe Hammond.
4. A well timed confidence motion brings an Autumn election, opportunity for Con revival, Lab collapse and an ecstatic SNP moaning about "Westminster Tories" in the build up to the Scottish election next year.
Plausible, or wishful thinking..?
My other idea for the same scenario was a 6 month Grand Coalition agreement between Con and Lab, led by the leader of the largest party and involving a bunch of constitutional stuff like EV4EL, boundary changes, Royal Commissions on HoL reform, Barnet formula etc, then back to the People in the autumn.
Miliband would have to deal with no changes in taxes and benefits for six months at the expense of not having to deal with the SNP. It's even plausible that Cameron and Miliband might both resign their party leaderships to allow fresh faces for the Autumn and move political debate away from what the interim Government is doing...0 -
The money going on Con most seats is surely a proxy for backing the SNP, no?Tissue_Price said:
1.48 & 1.77 (!) the last prices matched. A 24% chance that Ed is PM despite not leading in seats... looks brave to me.Tissue_Price said:Con Most Seats dropping below 1.5.
Ed PM after GE dropping below 1.9.
Some of this is the latter market waking up, but the gap looks a bit overdone now.
On topic, the figures for Con & Lab marginals are presumably ruined by the the fact that they include seats with LD 2nd. I'll try to extract the result from last time for each of ICM's groups anyway.0 -
To be fair, he did also say a levy on big tobacco and cracking down on tax avoidance.Carnyx said:
As it so happens, Mr G, Brown has sent me a letter urging me to vote SLAB, which has just landed on the doormat. It goes on about how the mansion tax UK wide will fund 1000 nurses and 500 medics in Scotland ... old hat, and divisive old hat.Pulpstar said:
The swings in Kirkcaldy and Edi SW show that Darling and Brown certainly had a big influence on the Scots in 2010 to my mind.tlg86 said:
I'd chuck into the mix the fact that the Scots showed some loyalty to Gordon Brown at the last election. They don't feel the same way about Ed.isam said:The SNP only are where they are now because they had MPs, won Holyrood and got a referendum. There's a reason it's happening now and didn't happen in 2010
0 -
Lord Forsyth seems to get it:Nemtynakht said:
Alistair darling was hung out to dry on this on R4 this morning. How is it reckless for Tories to warn against SNP when the first thing he did was say that SNP were a that to the union and only a Labour majority could stop them. That bit of Scottish messaging didn't wash on the today programme who said the strength of SNP meant only Labour minority was likely at best and Tory majority best to stop SNP. How will ed explain it next week, will he continued the we re like the Tories but we're compassionate and they're e evil baby eaters.BenM said:Labour can be pleased with the way the campaign has gone so far I think, and on the ground Party activity is certainly in full throttle. The major risk is that in weeks like this one, where not much seems to be happening at the national level, energy sags a bit. Ed could do with another televised debate to maintain the big mo. Even if to counter the increasingly desperate and reckless Tory anti SNP attacks (the Party is going down in flames). No doubt Ed is now looking forward to next week's Question Time special.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/20/tories-playing-dangerous-game-scotland-lord-forsyth
But then he is a staunch supporter of the Labour party :-)
0
