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Quite a big difference between the age groups in the Edinburgh South tables

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Edinburgh-South-April-2015-Full-tables.pdf

Swing in Scotland is almost meaningless, it's SNP start point, "Yes" % and incumbency that are the important facts.

So unless something unexpected happens, there's just two more ICM's before polling day (next Monday and then an "Eve of poll poll" probably Wednesday 5th (won't be one on Monday 4th due to bank holiday)?

#gettingclose

I interpret the recent polls as the Tories moving ahead.

Could the 2015 election be the one where...

The Conservatives failed to show up, but won anyway and then lived to regret it.

MarkHopkins said:

So Labour now following a 30% strategy.

How does that work?

Simple average of today's polls = Lab 32.8

Part-ELBOW = 33.5

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just ELBOWed all four of today's polls (YG, Pop, Ash, ICM) = Lab 0.2% ahead

Oh does last nights YG count as today for ELBOW purposes?

If so I can reveal the first ever daily SPUD!

An ELBOW is published on Sunday (Sunil on Sunday!), so an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday, regarding field-work end-dates.

What is SPUD?

Sam's Polling Ups & Downs

The movement between the latest and previous polls

So far today (3 polls)

Con -5
Lab -4
UKIP +5
LD +3
Green -4

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton said:

Flightpath said:

kjohnw said:

from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says

Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters

She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?

Legally, the SNP MPs will be elected to the UK Parliament. Not voting for English issues was just a convention. There is no law to stop them.

Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.

The fact that it is so, does not make it satisfactory.

It is a totally undemocratic aberration for so-called elected MPs to be deciding something for another country that doesn't apply in their own. If the SNP enact a bad English law, how does the electorate remove them from power? How do they get held to account?

This is not the same as Tory MPs under Thatcher creating laws as that was a single country then pre-devolution. English MPs don't and can't pass devolved legislation on Scotland.

West Lothian on steroids this will be, with added FTPA. The dog's dinner that was 1997 devolution is coming home to roost.

Dair said:

antifrank said:

The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls.

It is slightly strange though.

Has any other Ashcroft poll showed less than a 20% reduction in Labour's vote share? And this one shows less than 3% reduction. Seems very out of sync and nothing else in the Ashcroft series shows the Labour vote remaining so solid.

I guess the Tory shift supports the possibility of heavy tactical voting. But can it really produce more tactical votes given how things stand right now.

It looks to me that in both Edinburgh seats, a substantial proportion of LDs have moved to Labour, (though more have moved to SNP). Both seats had a large LD vote last time, and that has collapsed.

SPIN unaffected by the Ashcroft poll.

Edinburgh South is my old student constituency. Very Middle Class and affluent in general. The fact that the SNP are even close is astounding.

I don't think Ian Murray thought he had a chance in hell of winning for Labour in 2010. Ironically he could be the only Labour MP from Scotland to be returned.

Jonathan said:

I interpret the recent polls as the Tories moving ahead.

I think Lib's are clawing their way into double digits as well?

isam said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just ELBOWed all four of today's polls (YG, Pop, Ash, ICM) = Lab 0.2% ahead

Oh does last nights YG count as today for ELBOW purposes?

If so I can reveal the first ever daily SPUD!

An ELBOW is published on Sunday (Sunil on Sunday!), so an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday, regarding field-work end-dates.

What is SPUD?

Sam's Polling Ups & Downs

The movement between the latest and previous polls

So far today (3 polls)

Con -5
Lab -4
UKIP +5
LD +3
Green -4

From a seat perspective, that's excellent news for both UKIP and the LibDems. Both need the vote share of the "big two" minimized.

It's funny, but from a UKIP winning seats point of view, a 1% rise in the LibDem share is equivalent to a 0.42% increase in their share.

Barnesian said:

SPIN unaffected by the Ashcroft poll.

I assume because Ashcroft is always swinging about...

Con 34% Lab 30% with YouGov would move things I should think?

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

As well they should.

In fact I'd advise the Tories to take their manpower out of London and pump it all to the second homes in the SW.

Scott_P said:

@SophyRidgeSky: Miliband in Scotland: "the next Labour government will end Tory austerity." Miliband in England:"we are going to cut the deficit every year"

Well, it's technically true. Tory austerity is going to be replaced by Labour austerity, which for reasons that remain unclear to me both Labour and the public at large seem to think makes it hurt less.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

As well they should.

In fact I'd advise the Tories to take their manpower out of London and pump it all to the second homes in the SW.

One of my Lib Dem friends winced yesterday when Dave said "The SNP would stop road building and investment in the South West"

David Cameron and George Osborne = Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse

Nick Clegg & South West Lib Dems = General Custer

edit - deleted

Whats the first move with profits if Dave gets back in then ?

Buy Lloyds at that 5% discount ?

Mediocre ICM and Poor Ashcroft for Labour. Must do better!!!

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

Mr. S, fret not, I'm sure there'll be another Panelbase before voting day.

Roger said:

Jonathan

"I interpret the recent polls as the Tories moving ahead."

It does feel like that. A pity because I think the Tories shameless buying of votes makes everyone-particularly those prepared to be bought-seem rather seedy. If ever the tactics of a party deserved to lose it's Cameron's Conservatives. Who knows though. Maybe at the last minute voters will do the right thing.

Labour have never 'bought' votes, I am sure.

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

What were the "No", "Yes" splits in the Edinburgh constituencies ?

Edinburgh N & Leith YES 40: NO 60
Edinburgh S: YES 35: NO 65
Edinburgh E: YES 47: NO 53
Edinburgh SW: YES 38: NO 61
Edinburgh W: YES 34: NO 65

Could Mike Crockhart be THE shock Lib Dem hold of the night ?!

He could. I'd certainly rather back the incumbent than Labour.

I can see that

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

As well they should.

In fact I'd advise the Tories to take their manpower out of London and pump it all to the second homes in the SW.

One of my Lib Dem friends winced yesterday when Dave said "The SNP would stop road building and investment in the South West"

David Cameron and George Osborne = Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse

Nick Clegg & South West Lib Dems = General Custer

Ok what's Murphy and Sturgeon? Varus and Hannibal? Von Paulus and Zhukov? I'm trying to reach for the right level of apocalypse......

No Hannibal was overrated and lucky to take on such ineptness.

I'd say for Sturgeon and Murphy it would be

Sturgeon = Admiral Ackbar, Jim Murphy = The Emperor at Endor.

But more like it SLAB = Crassus, SNP = Surena and Labour are facing their Carrhae.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Every time Sturgeon appears on TV shifts about 10,000 English votes to the Tories/UKIP, I reckon.

This really is the best meme the Tories have, which is no doubt why they are banging on and on about it.

The real mystery is who the Nats would really like to see in Number 10. Received wisdom is that a Tory government is best for them, because Scots will feel aggrieved by English Tories.

I'm not so sure. I reckon a weak Labour government necessarily propped up Sturgeon is the Nats best result. It gives them (of course) maximum leverage, and it also gives them plentiful opportunities to sow Anglo-Scottish discord, furthering the long term aim of indy.

In which case, paradoxically, Sturgeon might be best advised to keep a lower profile south of the Border.

I don't think it matters too much, the goal for the SNP is simply to get as many MPs as possible.

If Labour can't win in England it's not their fault/problem.

Edinburgh South is probably on a knife edge with named candidates, Dumfries and Galloway too. Berwickshire, Roxburgh, Selkirk and DCT also.

Roger said:

Jonathan

"I interpret the recent polls as the Tories moving ahead."

It does feel like that. A pity because I think the Tories shameless buying of votes makes everyone-particularly those prepared to be bought-seem rather seedy. If ever the tactics of a party deserved to lose it's Cameron's Conservatives. Who knows though. Maybe at the last minute voters will do the right thing.

Roger- before you get disheartened too much this is a great article to show that campaigns actually make no difference at all.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-published-tomorrow-here-its-authors-present-their-conclusions-and-explode-the-myths-about-the-greatest-upset-since-1945-1439286.html


If campaigns mattered, the Tories would be heading south quickly because theirs is simply abysmal.

The polls are not going to move much now. Infact I'm going to give myself a rest from poll watching for a few days- good advice to the others here. Enjoy the weather, and do some gardening.

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Although the fact remains: UKIPs VI is higher than a year ago, when it was being written off as just down to the Euros, with a precipice to follow...

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton said:

Flightpath said:

kjohnw said:

from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says

Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters

She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?

Legally, the SNP MPs will be elected to the UK Parliament. Not voting for English issues was just a convention. There is no law to stop them.

Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.

The fact that it is so, does not make it satisfactory.

It is a totally undemocratic aberration for so-called elected MPs to be deciding something for another country that doesn't apply in their own. If the SNP enact a bad English law, how does the electorate remove them from power? How do they get held to account?

This is not the same as Tory MPs under Thatcher creating laws as that was a single country then pre-devolution. English MPs don't and can't pass devolved legislation on Scotland.

You've answered your own question, actually (and so did Mr @kjohnw too). In the case of the NHS, we have an excellent example of the Blairite devolution settlement leaving the central core UK parliament hopelessly mixed up with what functions as an English parliament - one moment it's deciding English health policy and the other moment it's deciding budget allocations for the UK as a whole. The former is in my view (and presumably yours), generally not appropriate for the SNP unless (say) there is some overriding issue - for instance to ensure public health*, or possibly even the health of the Miliband premiership should Mr Miliband decide so. The latter, in contrast, most certainly is a legitimate issue.

*for instance, if there is an attempt to bring in an unwise policy which impinges on the UK as a whole, e.g. in terms of monitoring of infectious diseases

isam said:

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Shaking the pot was pretty much a bet to nothing for the Conservatives with Scotland.

I see Cameron is attending the leaders summit tomorrow on the Med. I hope he cleans some of that blood off his hands before he goes due to his callous decision to pull out the European wide searches.

Hammond's comments that saving these poor people only encourages them to come over. Really, shame on these pathetic excuses that we have for leaders.

isam said:

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Although the fact remains: UKIPs VI is higher than a year ago, when it was being written off as just down to the Euros, with a precipice to follow...

Have you taken any profits out of your long-shot UKIP bets, Sam? Be a pity to be right about the surge but not end up winning (like the LD backers in 2010).

MikeK said:

David Coburn MEP ‏@DavidCoburnUKip 6m6 minutes ago
Nick Clegg admits on BBC - Coalition are responsible for Med refugee crisis due to their intervention in Libya

If Ghaddaffi had slaughtered people in Benghazi - as he threatened to do - there would likely have been refugees then. Sure the interventions by the West have not helped. But the coalition is not responsible for the rise of IS. IS has grown out of the culture of the Middle East and it is the turmoil caused by what appears to be a civil war - or several civil wars - within Islam, within and between countries and the growth of extremist groups. The West is not responsible for the fact that in a large part of the Middle East they seem incapable of developing any sort of stable society or political system which does not involve slaughtering people and causing others to flee.

How we deal with those fleeing all these catastrophes is hard to say. Leaving them to drown in the Mediterranean is, quite apart from any moral considerations, unlikely to succeed. If the choice is between living with IS or possible drowning there's no decision to take. Send them somewhere else? Maybe - but where? Why would Tunisia or Morocco want to have these people? Letting them into Europe? We can't take everyone who wants to leave the Middle East or Africa.

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

As well they should.

In fact I'd advise the Tories to take their manpower out of London and pump it all to the second homes in the SW.

One of my Lib Dem friends winced yesterday when Dave said "The SNP would stop road building and investment in the South West"

David Cameron and George Osborne = Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse

Nick Clegg & South West Lib Dems = General Custer

Ok what's Murphy and Sturgeon? Varus and Hannibal? Von Paulus and Zhukov? I'm trying to reach for the right level of apocalypse......

No Hannibal was overrated and lucky to take on such ineptness.

I'd say for Sturgeon and Murphy it would be

Sturgeon = Admiral Ackbar, Jim Murphy = The Emperor at Endor.

But more like it SLAB = Crassus, SNP = Surena and Labour are facing their Carrhae.

I would go with Murphy as Varus, and the legions of SLAB and SLD being led into the Tuetonberg forest by Clegg/Miliband as Arminius...

MaxPB said:

TheWatcher said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

@MaxPB

must just be rich parents able to put up hundreds of thousands for their kid(s) to buy expensive flats.

That'll be it.

Andrew Hawkins ‏@Andrew_ComRes 4 mins4 minutes ago

ComRes/ITV News: around 2/3 of GB voters don't want Salmond or the SNP to play a part in the next British Govt

Tories starting to cut through to the GBP.

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Although the fact remains: UKIPs VI is higher than a year ago, when it was being written off as just down to the Euros, with a precipice to follow...

Have you taken any profits out of your long-shot UKIP bets, Sam? Be a pity to be right about the surge but not end up winning (like the LD backers in 2010).

I haven't had enough on most of them to worry about hedging massively really

I had £50@11/4 5-10% to cover the 6/4 10%+ and £50@5/2 LD/UKIP to cover the 6/4 UKIP/LD, but the only other bets I had more than £100 on are Thurrock at 16s and South Basildon at 20s.. I suppose I should back the Tories in Thurrock at 5s or whatever they are really

EDIT actually I have had £100 on Rotherham 9/2, Rochford East 12s and Rother Valley 8s too! They haven't come in loads though

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Although the fact remains: UKIPs VI is higher than a year ago, when it was being written off as just down to the Euros, with a precipice to follow...

Have you taken any profits out of your long-shot UKIP bets, Sam? Be a pity to be right about the surge but not end up winning (like the LD backers in 2010).

I haven't had enough on most of them to worry about hedging massively really

I had £50@11/4 5-10% to cover the 6/4 10%+ and £50@5/2 LD/UKIP to cover the 6/4 UKIP/LD, but the only other bets I had more than £100 on are Thurrock at 16s and South Basildon at 20s.. I suppose I should back the Tories in Thurrock at 5s or whatever they are really

EDIT actually I have had £100 on Rotherham 9/2, Rochford East 12s and Rother Valley 8s too! They haven't come in loads though

9/2 in Thurrock now but still a bet to my eye.

Is there a handy paypal link available? – I wish to donate to Russell Brand’s TNT appeal.

Slackbladder said:

Andrew Hawkins ‏@Andrew_ComRes 4 mins4 minutes ago

ComRes/ITV News: around 2/3 of GB voters don't want Salmond or the SNP to play a part in the next British Govt

Tories starting to cut through to the GBP.

I'm sure around 2/3 don't want Cameron or the Tories to play a part in the next British Govt.

Flightpath said:

tyson said:

Roger said:

Jonathan

"I interpret the recent polls as the Tories moving ahead."

It does feel like that. A pity because I think the Tories shameless buying of votes makes everyone-particularly those prepared to be bought-seem rather seedy. If ever the tactics of a party deserved to lose it's Cameron's Conservatives. Who knows though. Maybe at the last minute voters will do the right thing.

Roger- before you get disheartened too much this is a great article to show that campaigns actually make no difference at all.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-published-tomorrow-here-its-authors-present-their-conclusions-and-explode-the-myths-about-the-greatest-upset-since-1945-1439286.html

If campaigns mattered, the Tories would be heading south quickly because theirs is simply abysmal.

The polls are not going to move much now. Infact I'm going to give myself a rest from poll watching for a few days- good advice to the others here. Enjoy the weather, and do some gardening.

Its just your opinion that the campaign is poor.

Of course this is all subjective but the Tories seem to have gone from saying that Ed Miliband will personally stab you in the back if you vote Labour to reversing their rhetoric on public spending with billions of unfunded commitments when that didnt work. It does all seem a bit crap tbh.

Carnyx said:

Cyclefree said:

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.

Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.

It took decades of SLAB taking voters for granted before their grip weakened, I suspect the SNP appearing overconfident and a little too expectant that the votes are already theirs will not prove problematic in the short term at the very least. And if they get results? The passion and loyalty of the recently converted can be hard to dent.

Thank you. To me - but I am in London - they sound a touch hubristic. I wonder, therefore, whether the SLAB wipeout will be as bad as forecast. If a party were so obviously behaving as if they were guaranteed my vote I'd be tempted to give them a bloody nose.

Purely anecdotal but I was talking to a family member who lives in another marginal London constituency and he commented - and he is pretty small "c" conservative and old-fashioned (in the best sense) - that EdM was growing on him (as a person) and he thought the Tory campaign was dire. He's going to some hustings in the constituency later this week.

The media reportage of the SNP in London in particular is not necessarily going to give the actual nuances, to put it mildly. Quite a bit of what I read [edit: up here, in contrast] is actually cautious and wary about what might still go wrong. It's more 'we might actually do this' rather than 'we will'.

But that brings me to the other factor beside what Mr kle4 mentions, which is that the SNP MUST be seen to be winning to be worth voting for - and conversely that the portrayal of Labour as increasingly a wasted vote is important. This is the first time in living memory that a SNP vote in a UKGE wasn't likely to be a wasted vote (think voting LD in many southern seats) so the more people realise this the better.

A lot of people in Scotland used to vote tactically against the Tories - or at least that was an important consideration: the NOTA vote benefited SLAB hugely because thy were often the more credible opposition. Now?

Carnyx: thanks. Interesting. I can see that the SNP need to counter the wasted vote argument.

Tories starting to cut through to the GBP.

Is it just the tories? IF ed goes down the aisle with the SNP, is the rest of the PLP really going to follow him, with polls like that?

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Every time Sturgeon appears on TV shifts about 10,000 English votes to the Tories/UKIP, I reckon.

....snip

In which case, paradoxically, Sturgeon might be best advised to keep a lower profile south of the Border.

Why should Sturgeon want to do anything south of the border. She is a Scottish Nationalist.
Sturgeon is not actually running standing as an MP is she?
It will take someone clever to explain to a visitor from Mars just what is going in here...

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

Bob__Sykes said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories are really going for it in the South West

@George_Osborne: From this week, 600,000 people in South West cast postal vote. Vote Conservative for our plan for stronger SW. Vote Libdem &get Miliband/SNP

Perhaps he might have better tweeted "Vote UKIP and get Miliband/SNP"?

I would have thought the bigger SW worry was UKIP preventing them winning seats, not Tories voting LD. Why would anyone in the SW switch Tory > LD in 2015?

The Conservatives are very consciously not mentioning UKIP. They have correctly worked out that every mention of UKIP increases the kipper vote.

They have found a very clever way of drawing UKIP considerers back towards them. Lynton Crosby has earned his money.

By winning the indy ref by just the right margin to make Scots back the SNP en masse and possibly form part of the Westminster govt?

That is cunning beyond belief!

Although the fact remains: UKIPs VI is higher than a year ago, when it was being written off as just down to the Euros, with a precipice to follow...

Have you taken any profits out of your long-shot UKIP bets, Sam? Be a pity to be right about the surge but not end up winning (like the LD backers in 2010).

I haven't had enough on most of them to worry about hedging massively really

I had £50@11/4 5-10% to cover the 6/4 10%+ and £50@5/2 LD/UKIP to cover the 6/4 UKIP/LD, but the only other bets I had more than £100 on are Thurrock at 16s and South Basildon at 20s.. I suppose I should back the Tories in Thurrock at 5s or whatever they are really

EDIT actually I have had £100 on Rotherham 9/2, Rochford East 12s and Rother Valley 8s too! They haven't come in loads though

9/2 in Thurrock now but still a bet to my eye.

Ok cheers

I don't really get the discrepancy between the two UKIP prices in Thurrock and S Basildon & E Thurrock.. on my workings out they should be the same price

Of course a vote for the SNP isn't a wasted vote. And yes the "threat" of the SNP could well have some soft Lib Dems and kippers returning to the blues.

But the SNP only wants SNP seats - they either get to torture Miliband for 5 years or if Dave gets in another referendum is on the cards sooner rather than later.

Whatever happens in England, the SNP win.