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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the econ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down
You might think that the extremely positive employment figures released yesterday would be cause for a great deal of campaigning from the Conservatives, both positively on their record and negatively against Labour.
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Some firms haven't even moved their Lab line.
Ok the topic of interest rates, these typically rise to combat inflation which we currently don't have any of. While Europe has joined Japan in deflation. Once inflation starts picking up we can start to raise rates (even if inflation is still below the 2% target) but not before. We don't want to risk deflation.
Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April
Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.
For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.
But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.
Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.
Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.
FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.
NURSE! – we have another escapee…!
I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.
If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!
There seems to be a consensus that 2015 is now done. SLABbers and commentators are starting to turn their attention to 2016 and the "Big Comeback" of SLAB. But, is this even remotely possible.
Consider this.
In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).
Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, cannot be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.
Now consider this.
There will be : -
30 or so former MPs
20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
15 FPTP MSPs
22 List MSPs
10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot
That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.
Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.
Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?
We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
QE is not "new" money. We all pay for it (in the form of lower currency value), it then gets concentrated and handed on to those in need.
The "needy" like to remain quiet about it in case people start asking questions.
QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.
This is a surreal election in which all parties - perhaps with the exception of the Greens - are too scared to confront the electorate with what they truly believe.
Pathetic. Good riddance to him, Dougie and a phalanx of wheezy life-insurance risks, who were neither use nor ornament at Westminster.
Nigel Farage need only have a pint with the afflicted to slash A&E waiting lists to zero.
Nick Clegg anoints open toed sandals to cure gout
Ed Miliband blesses bacon sandwiches to slash the obesity crisis
David Cameron walks on water to assist water births in maternity wards
Elections were ever thus.
The art of government is to make people "believe" in it.
Elections are about testing public gullibility.
Welcome to the Pragmatic Communists Party young padawan, you membership will be sent forthwith, and it is your mission in life to disseminate the message through all the best local pubs.
It is a tough job, but a burden we shoulder willingly.
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
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AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT
It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts.
But the benefits are enormous.
You can wait till the fellow drinkers are suitably relaxed, then tell them that religion exists, but that money is entirely faith based.
(It is one of the moments of joy when they try to explain why it isn't)
SLAB might be going down the toilet on his watch, with him being part of the problem, but as a human being he did the right thing.
Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.
One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?
That being said, raising mortgage payments for millions - perhaps 10 million - people just ahead of an election would be political suicide.
The SNP "vision" comes with major consequences.
Some good, some bad, but the same as for the other parties, no one spells it out.
Politicians prefer to appeal to emotion rather than logic.
Biased Royalist ARSE Nonsense?
"Anything you can do in Rhyl you can do better elsewhere"
- Rough Guide to Wales
Wee Dougie? Probably, he's the only certainty.
Mags Curran? Can you imagine her outside Glasgow? Scare the weans.
#creepyjim? Lacks supporters. Needs an epic shift on Labour positioning.
There's not much else I can think of. Clark too left wing, Osborne nah, I can't think of half their names. The borders guy? IDK.
Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
There are variations on the theme, but it is basically used to paper over cracks in the "free market"
Monetary policy should be aimed at managing future inflation and growth, rather than running to catch up with what's already happened. It's true that inflation is at historically very low levels but much of that is due to one-off factors which are unlikely to repeat, such as a halving of the oil price. So against a backdrop of what's going on in the rest of the economy, now is the time to start (actually, several months ago was the time to start but we can't do that now).
Ref Sterling, it would probably go up were monetary policy to be tightened but then last summer £1 bought $1.70; now it buys $1.50 so a little appreciation can be handled - and unwinding QE while keeping rates at 0.5 or 0.75% shouldn't attract too much overseas money. Indeed, unwinding QE first is one way of taking some of the heat out of the housing market and share prices without putting too much strain on exporters, but the point made by tabman is right (if overstated) that far too many homeowners (and, implicitly, lenders and regulators?) are working on the expectation of crisis-level rates lasting indefinitely.
Secondly, your suggestion that the government just print money and give it to "the people" is fraught with moral hazard. It was of course known as Notgeld or Emergency Money in Germany in the 1920s, but you can go back much further to John Law in France in the 1700s if you like. It ended badly, for all concerned.
Not really a hard concept to grasp.
Where exactly does the "money" come from?
The magic money tree?
Debt and savings are a method for allowing the "time transfer" of economic value (or work).
Yes, it is entirely faith based.
(to save arguments, the statement compares apples with oranges, you could as easily say that the finance sector exists, but God is faith based)
Livens up a pub discussion no end though, when people don't notice.
SLAB is going down the toilet on Ed Miliband’s watch.
All the disasters (Holyrood 2011, Sindy, Westminster 2015) have happened on Ed’s watch, and he has not yet been held to account.
The buck stops with the leader. Ed has spectacularly misunderstood & mismanaged Scotland. The tsunami started after the Sindy, with the tipping point being the resignation of Lamont who confirmed what the SNP had been saying all the time, that SLAB was run from Westminster.
This is one of the reasons I think Ed will find it very hard to survive if he only gets 250 or 260 seats and loses all of Scotland.
There won’t be any SNP+Lab progressive alliance. There will be a decapitation, and while Ed’s head lies in the gutter, Lab will chose someone else
Well done Felix, you can print money as long as it is spent on what is needed?
P3 ends at 2pm, I think, so the pre-qualifying piece will hopefully be up around then.
I do agree the economy seems to have been less prominent than might reasonably have been expected. The main Conservative line is the danger of having a separatist party with a vested interest in causing ructions within the country allowing Miliband to be PM.
That said, I do think there are serious issues with that potential scenario. As has been mentioned here before, it'd suggest Labour be behind the Conservatives in England, and such an agreement between Labour and the SNP could do massive damage to Labour now there's UKIP ready and willing to snap up their working class voters.
There is no difference in terms of effect to giving printed money to individuals is comparison to giving the printed money to banks. Assuming the banks don't transfer the money out of the economy (remember not to rely on closed system analysis).
I feel no pain. It is not my logic that is faulty.
It is much cheaper for the Probation Service of England & Wales to place some ex-convict in Rhyl than in S.E. England. Hence, Rhyl is a very dangerous place.
The Probation Service is not devolved, and aided by low housing costs, has exported English problems to Wales.
Mark Bridger (killer of April Jones) is another example. Born in Surrey, the son of a London cop. Got into trouble over possession of a firearm, theft, and obtaining property by deception. Moved to Wales by the Probation Service, where no one knew him, to ‘make a fresh start’.
On the other hand, were Miliband to form a government off the back of the SNP, it's easy to see Labour being assailed by Con, Lib Dem, UKIP and Greens from different but interlocking positions, at which point there might be rather fewer attractive openings on offer.
However I suspect that Ed will survive if he gets Labour into Government in the UK. I’m not sure though that he should have been quite as definite about no coalition “even” with the SNP, although that doesn’t ruile out confidence & supply.
A good article as usual.
I do think that the Tories will go heavily on the economy though. It is their strongest suit, and the master strategist did find time to go to the IMF for a reason. (Perhaps fishing for a job? Now that really would get under the skin of Gordon!).
What surprises me is that the Tories do not respond to the £12 billion of welfare cuts by pointing out that the kindest way to cut the benefits bill is by reducing unemployment and taking the low paid out of tax. It is the obvious reply and one that Labour would struggle to reply to.
Mind you the Labour jobs guarentee does seem a bit obselete in a time of effective full employment.
Yes, you have to believe they have the same "values" as you do for it to work.
The same way it is necessary for religion.
What political faith?
Are you making assumptions?
Labour's organisation is excellent in London, and many Con/Lab marginals, but rotten everywhere else.