OT for anyone who's missed Breaking Bad. It's on from the start on Spike TV via Freesat. Don't know about Freeview
I take it Spike TV is new? It just appeared on my Freeview without me even doing an update yesterday, overwriting BBC News HD and requiring a full update. Very annoying.
Yes it is on freeview.
I have watched the complete breaking bad, still believe the sopranos was superior.
The polls are consistently pointing to a sizeable move in the opposite direction, so unless you think they're a complete pile of pants it would be a seriously unexpected turn of events.
The current polls indicate that the Tories will lose some to Labour but gain some back from the Lib Dems. Plus the theory is that the seats will be more efficient than last time. This is why many seat projectors like ARSE and others put the Tories at 290+ .... within a few % swing of a majority.
It should also be pointed out, that at less than 1.5% of Reserves, the idea that Sterling is a "major currency" is some decades out of date. Like most of your ideas about the UK economy.
You show your ignorance here, we absolutely have control over the value of sterling. You see far smaller currencies than ours changing values all the time.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
@Dair Spike is new and lots of amusing reality stuff Inc World's Strongest Man. It does contest shows like Ink Masters. The ultimate tattoo show. I love the these. Very funny and OMG. B-)
ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is now like methadone to our junkie clapped out economy addicted to ever greater amounts of credit, to achieve an ever diminishing growth return.
Base rates will be below 1% for the entire period of the next parliament, because Carney cannot afford a (needed) real estate asset price correction which would create recession for an economy that largely relies on this sector (directly and indirectly).
That will suit whoever gets in just fine, because they will not want to be the party in power that crashes the housing market. Also and for the same reasons, all of the claims being made on increasing the housing stock are pure BS.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
The funny thing with ICM is that everyone cried out "rogue" but then it was within MoE from the previous ICM. There were people calling out "rogue" for the previous ICM and the ICM before that.
Three in a row ICM's showing a Tory lead, I think all 3 being rogue seems unlikely. ICM could be wrong, but I don't think they're all rogues.
There is a bit of a disconnect between the feeling on the ground and the various polling forecasts. I know from the seats I have personal knowledge of that I think both Yougov and Baxter have not got them right (some too good for Labour some not good enough). Who will be right we will have to wait until May 7th. I think Dagenham is very unlikely to be really "to close to call" even taking into account the UKIP factor, the biggest influence in all the London seats (& Thurrock too) is demographic change, that change currently favours Labour. In many areas around 20% of the register changes each year. Logic says yougov are right about the Edinburgh area BUT I am not sure that sort of logic is really correct in current circumstances.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
The funny thing with ICM is that everyone cried out "rogue" but then it was within MoE from the previous ICM. There were people calling out "rogue" for the previous ICM and the ICM before that.
Three in a row ICM's showing a Tory lead, I think all 3 being rogue seems unlikely. ICM could be wrong, but I don't think they're all rogues.
Agreed. It is really a question of whether their methodology (which has worked so well in the past) can deal with the complexities of a multiparty system and increased tactical voting as a result.
OGH said there is another ICM on Monday. It will be interesting to see if there is much change.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
No SLAB incumbency in SW is a real problem for Labour and why I'm confident about my bet there.
I'm not sure an O&S poll would give Ashcroft his desired result.
Don't get me wrong - I think the good lord has done a great service to the nation during this election - but would it really suit his agenda to commission a poll showing the the SNP struggling to hit 25% in the LD's safest seat?
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but seemingly no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
No SLAB incumbency in SW is a real problem for Labour and why I'm confident about my bet there.
I was speaking to one of the candidates yesterday and he was forecasting a Labour hold. Not sure how much canvassing information that is based on though.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
OGH seem's to have ditched ICM for The Good Lord...
Though somebody said ICM do the fieldwork for Lord Ashcroft so it may all be the same company in the end?
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford.
snip
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
Nick. Well done in writing that. However, since at least WW2 our Governments have chosen to spend more and more of the resources that the Govt has (or borrows) onto:- Out of work Welfare, Subsidising low wages, the NHS and other Public Services.
Fundamentally we need to much spend less on current public sector operations and more on genuine infrastructure.
Who would actually change these allocations with the national religion of the NHS? Not an Ed Miliband led Government as Ed scarcely understands the need for dividends for share owners! They are all nasty capitalists. Tony Blair's government had an opportunity, but blew the chance and blew the surplus cash. Maybe we just have to go down rapidly into the socialist chaos of Miliband for the country to be taken to the IMF brink again and the Conservatives to choose a Leader capable of tackling the problems you correctly identify.
I very much agree and was very interested in Nick Palmer's diagnosis of the Uk's economic problems and on what he is going to focus which he says is, "So part of my personal manifesto is going to be a medium-term perspective that is focused on making Britain viable but fair. That means, specifically, that I don’t favour significant tax cuts for individuals unless they’re funded from other sources. I’m sorry, but we need to be honest with each other. At the moment, we can’t afford them, and I’d recommend looking with suspicion at anyone who says we can."
Nick's problem is that he is almost a lone voice shouting in the Labour wilderness, as practically none of his party are taking a longer term view and probably would not even know what that means - which is years of tightening belts before we get there.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
Not hard to imagine this scenario playing out: -
1) The true polling is somewhere between ICM and the rest, currently giving CONS 2-3% lead 2) Blue leaning UKIPs come home over the next 2 weeks spooked by LAB/SNP scenario. 3) A 1% swing from Lab to Con, brought about by aspirational types impressed with RTB and the SNP situation 4) 2-3% of LAB voters don't show up on the day, due to being lazy sleeping hungover students, not on the electoral roll, rain and wind on polling day etc etc.
Result - Tory majority of 20-40.
Personally I think Cam will get no more that 290, but the CON ceiling appears a lot higher than the LAB one to me.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
The near death of SLAB at the hands of the SNP has almost no effect on the likelihood of Con Maj.
If we were seeing a lot of ICMs at that end of the scale then what you're saying would make sense, but we've only seen that single poll from anyone, and even if that was right it's not clear that it would be enough.
I'm not saying Con maj is impossibly unlikely, but it's at least as far from where available evidence is pointing as Lab maj.St.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
Cheers.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
Well not paying advocates to resist actions for the disclosure of non existent legal advice on behalf of a lying First Minister would of course be a start.
That was an investment.
Think of all those productive column inches generated for the papers and advertising in said papers. The Scotsman needs every penny it can get as it's dying off as fast as the Union.
Nick. Well done in writing that. However, since at least WW2 our Governments have chosen to spend more and more of the resources that the Govt has (or borrows) onto:- Out of work Welfare, Subsidising low wages, the NHS and other Public Services.
Fundamentally we need to much spend less on current public sector operations and more on genuine infrastructure.
Who would actually change these allocations with the national religion of the NHS? Not an Ed Miliband led Government as Ed scarcely understands the need for dividends for share owners! They are all nasty capitalists. Tony Blair's government had an opportunity, but blew the chance and blew the surplus cash. Maybe we just have to go down rapidly into the socialist chaos of Miliband for the country to be taken to the IMF brink again and the Conservatives to choose a Leader capable of tackling the problems you correctly identify.
I very much agree and was very interested in Nick Palmer's diagnosis of the Uk's economic problems and on what he is going to focus which he says is, "So part of my personal manifesto is going to be a medium-term perspective that is focused on making Britain viable but fair. That means, specifically, that I don’t favour significant tax cuts for individuals unless they’re funded from other sources. I’m sorry, but we need to be honest with each other. At the moment, we can’t afford them, and I’d recommend looking with suspicion at anyone who says we can."
Nick's problem is that he is almost a lone voice shouting in the Labour wilderness, as practically none of his party are taking a longer term view and probably would not even know what that means - which is years of tightening belts before we get there.
The emphasis on tax cuts by the Tories in this election has been a serious strategic error. Many people think if there is money available for tax cuts there is money available for funding public services, why are we having cuts? The answer is not straightforward enough to get over quickly!
Do any posters own up to wishful thinking in the posts they write on PB?
I think most post probably are.
Although if I am demonstrating a possible scenario, I try to always caveat it with my own opinion at the end (which in itself isn't necessarily my preferred scenario).
I do, very occasionally, post about Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one gets to sleep with me, but I do acknowledge that's moderately unlikely.
BTW for less than brilliant campaigning can anyone beat Pete Wishart who wrote to the Courier this week complaining that people were planning to vote against him tactically in Perth and North Perthshire and how unfair this all was (thereby publicising the possibility)?
Might make some references to that letter on the doorstep this afternoon.
David is not that bad plato , misguided Tory but not a numpty.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
Cheers.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
Well not paying advocates to resist actions for the disclosure of non existent legal advice on behalf of a lying First Minister would of course be a start.
That was an investment.
Think of all those productive column inches generated for the papers and advertising in said papers. The Scotsman needs every penny it can get as it's dying off as fast as the Union.
LOL very good. The Scotsman is indeed a pointless rag that only seems to exist for the death notices.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
The near death of SLAB at the hands of the SNP has almost no effect on the likelihood of Con Maj.
If we were seeing a lot of ICMs at that end of the scale then what you're saying would make sense, but we've only seen that single poll from anyone, and even if that was right it's not clear that it would be enough.
I'm not saying Con maj is impossibly unlikely, but it's at least as far from where available evidence is pointing as Lab maj.St.
ICM is within striking distance of a Con maj, I don't see (post-Scotland) any polls which reasonably point to a Lab maj being possible.
Do any posters own up to wishful thinking in the posts they write on PB?
I fastidiously am trying to avoid any sort of wishful thinking this General Election.
lol. Me too.
It's really hard trying to beat out your own biases when coming up with a tissue price.
Still, politics/current affairs are one of the few areas of betting where I have a substantial and consistent edge over the bookies - so I must be doing something right.
Is Mr. Easterross banned? I believe he's having problems, according to his Twitter feed [I think this is the right chap, apologies if the username's wrong]: twitter.com/Scots_Tory/status/589149489132371970
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
Cheers.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
Well not paying advocates to resist actions for the disclosure of non existent legal advice on behalf of a lying First Minister would of course be a start.
That was an investment.
Think of all those productive column inches generated for the papers and advertising in said papers. The Scotsman needs every penny it can get as it's dying off as fast as the Union.
LOL very good. The Scotsman is indeed a pointless rag that only seems to exist for the death notices.
Perhaps there will be an obituary to SLAB published on 8th May 2015
The actor Jack Klugman died on Christmas Eve at age 90. Klugman was best known for his roles as the unkempt sportswriter in "The Odd Couple" and as the crusading medical examiner on "Quincy, M.E." the wildly popular 1980s medical drama. Few people remember it today, but he also played an instrumental role in passing critical health-care legislation, the Orphan Drug Act, through Congress in the early 1980s, using "Quincy" and his own celebrity to roll Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), who was blocking the bill.
Klugman's unlikely star turn in Washington stemmed from a 1980 hearing by the House Subcommittee on Health and the Environment on the problem of developing treatments for rare diseases. The problem was that many terrible diseases didn't afflict enough people to entice pharmaceutical companies to develop treatments. Hence they were "orphan" diseases. They included Tourette's syndrome, muscular dystrophy, cystic fibrosis, spina bifida, ALS and many more. The situation was especially tragic because scientists who discovered promising treatments often couldn't interest drug makers, who didn't see potential for profit.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
No SLAB incumbency in SW is a real problem for Labour and why I'm confident about my bet there.
I was speaking to one of the candidates yesterday and he was forecasting a Labour hold. Not sure how much canvassing information that is based on though.
I see that EdMs vow that, "The new task force - or Home Office Enforcement Unit - would have more than 100 staff to root out the illegal exploitation which undercuts wages and conditions for local workers. It would bring together teams from the Gangmasters Licensing Authority and specialist police units with extra Home Office staff." is in fact just more statism. EdM will not be satisfied until he has followed his father's Marxist dream of state control over everything and everyone, except those at the top who are doing the controlling and so can live a rich life apart from the 'serfs' under their control - much more like life under the Stasi or Stalinism.
However, the coalition has increased penalties on employers who pay less than the legal minimum and has placed a cap on non-EU migration - a fact conveniently ignored by EdM.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
The near death of SLAB at the hands of the SNP has almost no effect on the likelihood of Con Maj.
If we were seeing a lot of ICMs at that end of the scale then what you're saying would make sense, but we've only seen that single poll from anyone, and even if that was right it's not clear that it would be enough.
I'm not saying Con maj is impossibly unlikely, but it's at least as far from where available evidence is pointing as Lab maj.St.
Of the 3 options I listed a Con majority is the least likely. But we have the gold standard showing it is possible. All the other factors point to a very high probability of a hung parliament.
The near death of SLAB does help the Conservatives chances in that resources have had to be diverted to SLAB. Unfortunately for SLAB this looks to have been far too late a switch. Something one poster politely recommended last year.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
No SLAB incumbency in SW is a real problem for Labour and why I'm confident about my bet there.
I was speaking to one of the candidates yesterday and he was forecasting a Labour hold. Not sure how much canvassing information that is based on though.
I do, very occasionally, post about Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one gets to sleep with me, but I do acknowledge that's moderately unlikely.
Certainly unlikely. Clearly they would reach some sort of compromise, I am sure.
Re. the ICM "outlier" Baxter show's the Tories with a majority of 8 on those numbers. I think it would probably be a bit more than that though (maybe 20 seat majority?) Not that it will happen on the day.
I see that EdMs vow that, "The new task force - or Home Office Enforcement Unit - would have more than 100 staff to root out the illegal exploitation which undercuts wages and conditions for local workers. It would bring together teams from the Gangmasters Licensing Authority and specialist police units with extra Home Office staff." is in fact just more statism. EdM will not be satisfied until he has followed his father's Marxist dream of state control over everything and everyone, except those at the top who are doing the controlling and so can live a rich life apart from the 'serfs' under their control - much more like life under the Stasi or Stalinism.
However, the coalition has increased penalties on employers who pay less than the legal minimum and has placed a cap on non-EU migration - a fact conveniently ignored by EdM.
Yes Ed is following in his father's footsteps, a real socialist.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
It seems we keep hearing things like "The SNP aren't doing so well in (Area X)" then an Ashcroft poll comes along and, oops, SNP are cleaning up.
Al Murray's Pub Landlord is standing for Parliament. The leader of the Common Sense Revolution is battling Ukip leader Nigel Farage, no less, for the Kent constituency of South Thanet, with his election campaign poised to air on TV channel Dave as viewers await results on election night.
The 90-minute special follows Murray as he stands against Britain's established political parities as the sole candidate for his Free United Kingdom Party (FUKP) and will broadcast the minute polls close at 10:00pm on 7th May.
The documentary will feature fly-on-the-wall access to the 'Guv's' campaign trail and meetings with his trusted political advisors. It'll be edited right up until transmission, with footage from the very end of his campaign.
The show will also be updated with results and footage from election night, and then shown again at a later date, RadioTimes.com understands.
I do, very occasionally, post about Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one gets to sleep with me, but I do acknowledge that's moderately unlikely.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
No SLAB incumbency in SW is a real problem for Labour and why I'm confident about my bet there.
I was speaking to one of the candidates yesterday and he was forecasting a Labour hold. Not sure how much canvassing information that is based on though.
based on a wing and a prayer I think
It wasn't the Labour candidate.
David , They are all useless and hoping for the best, ie praying SNP don't whitewash the lot of them..
I do, very occasionally, post about Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one gets to sleep with me, but I do acknowledge that's moderately unlikely.
During the election period you should also include Hugh Laurie as another candidate.
I do, very occasionally, post about Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one gets to sleep with me, but I do acknowledge that's moderately unlikely.
During the election period you should also include Hugh Laurie as another candidate.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
OGH seem's to have ditched ICM for The Good Lord...
Though somebody said ICM do the fieldwork for Lord Ashcroft so it may all be the same company in the end?
Should we be surprised at the death of SLAB? After all I can barely recall ever reading from any SLAB poster here on PB. Whereas we have had several from SNP and a few SCONS. Just an unrepresentative sample but why were SLAB so quiet on here during the lead in to the independence vote?
Con 302 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+3) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 40 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
JackW seat predition very worrying for the tories.
In less than two weeks tories have lost around 12 seats and if the downward turns carry on,we could be heading for 280 odd tory seats and 270 odd labour seats under JackW poll for his final score ;-)
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
OGH seem's to have ditched ICM for The Good Lord...
Though somebody said ICM do the fieldwork for Lord Ashcroft so it may all be the same company in the end?
I see that EdMs vow that, "The new task force - or Home Office Enforcement Unit - would have more than 100 staff to root out the illegal exploitation which undercuts wages and conditions for local workers. It would bring together teams from the Gangmasters Licensing Authority and specialist police units with extra Home Office staff." is in fact just more statism. EdM will not be satisfied until he has followed his father's Marxist dream of state control over everything and everyone, except those at the top who are doing the controlling and so can live a rich life apart from the 'serfs' under their control - much more like life under the Stasi or Stalinism.
However, the coalition has increased penalties on employers who pay less than the legal minimum and has placed a cap on non-EU migration - a fact conveniently ignored by EdM.
Maybe. But it's a real problem. Gangmasters skimming all they can from employees with or without the employer knowing. Makes it difficult to achieve anything.
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but seemingly no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
I don't think ICM should be disregarded. It has an excellent record. There was nothing strange about its figures for Labour, Lib Dems, or Greens. Nor, for the combined Con/UKIP vote share.
Were we to assume a more plausible split of 36/10 for Con/UKIP, with the other numbers remaining the same, then Baxter puts the Conservatives on 311 seats, a strong position.
Con 302 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+3) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 40 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
JackW seat predition very worrying for the tories.
In less than two weeks tories have lost around 12 seats and if the downward turns carry on,we could be heading for 280 odd tory seats and 270 odd labour seats under JackW poll for his final score ;-)
Cameron has got to stop the rot coming out of Jack's Arse...
Looking at ICM's performance in the run up to 2010, they were remarkable good with the Labour share of the vote. They were a bit heavy on LD (other pollsters were to as a result of the fallout out of the debates).
After the debates, they never overstated the tories in 7 polls up to the date of the election.
If Monday's ICM shows high 30s for tories, then I think it would be very foolish indeed to discount it.
The absence of SLABers was most peculiar over the years, I assumed they were too lofty to engage. Now I wonder if it's just symptomatic of apathy that's been critically exposed this time around.
It's been in explicable that we've had none IIRC over all my years here - perhaps its actually endemic entitlement.
Should we be surprised at the death of SLAB? After all I can barely recall ever reading from any SLAB poster here on PB. Whereas we have had several from SNP and a few SCONS. Just an unrepresentative sample but why were SLAB so quiet on here during the lead in to the independence vote?
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
This morning you can back Labour at odds against in every single Edinburgh seat
Edinburgh East 5/1 (widely available) Edinburgh North & Leith 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair) Edinburgh South 11/10 (Coral, Paddy Power) Edinburgh South West 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetVictor) Edinburgh West 5/1 (Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
The last ICM would not need much movement combined with a near death of SLAB to produce that option. ICM used to be regarded as the gold standard on this website......
It still is by many of us, but seemingly no longer by OGH it would seem ..... I wonder why not?
I don't think ICM should be disregarded. It has an excellent record. There was nothing strange about its figures for Labour, Lib Dems, or Greens. Nor, for the combined Con/UKIP vote share.
Were we to assume a more plausible split of 36/10 for Con/UKIP, with the other numbers remaining the same, then Baxter puts the Conservatives on 311 seats, a strong position.
That's what I've been saying.
Clearly ICM was over the top on the Con number but they have been consistently showing the Tories ahead while all other pollsters show them neck and neck or behind.
If Con was to win the national share of the vote it would be congrats to ICM, IMO.
@DavidL - my point was that if you look at our overall exports we do far worse than our major competitors, most of which have educational outcomes at (most big western European countries) or below (the US) ours. Of course we need to improve our education system, but it is not the reason we export less than Germany, France, the US etc. We just don't produce enough stuff people in other countries want to buy. And that's mainly down to decisions taken by the people who run businesses here: cut, work from quarter to quarter, don't invest in R&D, then cut again, pay dividend, collect bonus, blame red tape, unions, teachers, take no responsibility, and repeat to fade.
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
I wonder how much of a handicap Jim Murphy's choice of temporary twitter handle being @JimForScotland instead of @JimForEastRen might have made him come across as arrogant.
I've just bought MASH on DVD - I have to block out a few days to binge it.
Been watching Between The Lines from the 90s about police corruption with Neil Pearson - it really is excellent. Siobhan Redmond is super too.imdb.com/title/tt0103362/?ref_=nv_sr_2
@DavidL - my point was that if you look at our overall exports we do far worse than our major competitors, most of which have educational outcomes at (most big western European countries) or below (the US) ours. Of course we need to improve our education system, but it is not the reason we export less than Germany, France, the US etc. We just don't produce enough stuff people in other countries want to buy. And that's mainly down to decisions taken by the people who run businesses here: cut, work from quarter to quarter, don't invest in R&D, then cut again, pay dividend, collect bonus, blame red tape, unions, teachers, take no responsibility, and repeat to fade.
One exporting issue is that the UK's competitive strength is in services such as banking, insurance, legal and consultancy. These are all invisible exports - and thus invisible.
The reason for the SLAB situation is that they were always seen as the key anti-Tory vote; they never really had to work for it.
After the IndyRef, the SNP are seen as a viable alternative AND Labour cosied up to the hated Tories.
Therefore I don't think there will be much pulling back to Labour, and the SNP will do very well and match the polls. The question will be how much tactical anti-SNP voting there might be.
HSB was good - but it's dated by virtue of its time. AS&J is too long ago to do it.
I'm a huge fan of trick riding and there's loads in there. Saw Valley of Gwangi a few weeks ago and the stunt riding in that Western Meets Dinosaurs was superb.
I've just bought MASH on DVD - I have to block out a few days to binge it.
Been watching Between The Lines from the 90s about police corruption with Neil Pearson - it really is excellent. Siobhan Redmond is super too.imdb.com/title/tt0103362/?ref_=nv_sr_2
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
This morning you can back Labour at odds against in every single Edinburgh seat
Edinburgh East 5/1 (widely available) Edinburgh North & Leith 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair) Edinburgh South 11/10 (Coral, Paddy Power) Edinburgh South West 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetVictor) Edinburgh West 5/1 (Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
This morning you can back Labour at odds against in every single Edinburgh seat
Edinburgh East 5/1 (widely available) Edinburgh North & Leith 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair) Edinburgh South 11/10 (Coral, Paddy Power) Edinburgh South West 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetVictor) Edinburgh West 5/1 (Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
These rumours aren't making their way into bets.
I think East and West have probably gone (West being Crockett of course). The other 3 are still in play to varying degrees. My guess is that Labour will hold 2/3 which makes these odds quite tempting.
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
I like the way the Stargate team cast actors from other sci-fi series. I think it's clever marketing, and I like seeing the actors again.
It would be better still if they kept their original characters too. Aeryn Sun was a much better character than the Stargate one.
I True Detective - until the last show it was stunning. Finale = was lazy - Matthew McCononhey [sp] is so great at laid back Southerner. Fiddling with those lager cans was epic suspense.
I've just bought MASH on DVD - I have to block out a few days to binge it.
Been watching Between The Lines from the 90s about police corruption with Neil Pearson - it really is excellent. Siobhan Redmond is super too.imdb.com/title/tt0103362/?ref_=nv_sr_2
The absence of SLABers was most peculiar over the years, I assumed they were too lofty to engage. Now I wonder if it's just symptomatic of apathy that's been critically exposed this time around.
It's been in explicable that we've had none IIRC over all my years here - perhaps its actually endemic entitlement.
Should we be surprised at the death of SLAB? After all I can barely recall ever reading from any SLAB poster here on PB. Whereas we have had several from SNP and a few SCONS. Just an unrepresentative sample but why were SLAB so quiet on here during the lead in to the independence vote?
It's more complicated than apathy.
The problem with SLAB is that the machine has never required "footsoldiers". They don't campaign so they don't need them. They select their candidates from the ranks of the Unions and (much more than in England) the Co-Operative Movement so people didn't need to join the party and campaign on the ground to progress on the path to power and position.
The reality is that they were always an empty shell with numbers padded by Social Clubs and Unions.
The referendum exposed this, hence the bussing of activists from England. And now it's more apparent than ever.
Ironically Labour were (and probably still are) by far the most active political party on University campuses. But their party structure prevents this translating into any useful pool of activists.
The reason for the SLAB situation is that they were always seen as the key anti-Tory vote; they never really had to work for it.
After the IndyRef, the SNP are seen as a viable alternative AND Labour cosied up to the hated Tories.
Therefore I don't think there will be much pulling back to Labour, and the SNP will do very well and match the polls. The question will be how much tactical anti-SNP voting there might be.
There is a small thing in Labour's favour. It requires gigantic swings to overtake Labour in Scotland.
Agreed, SNP is now polling around 20% swings. However, it will not be even. Some will be 15% , other 25% and so on.
Some of these lower swings may not be enough to topple the incumbent. That said, I do not give Labour more than 10.
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
I have heard increasing rumours that SLAB might hold on in a number of Edinburgh seats including Edinburgh SW, partly from a modest recovery, partly from the SNP movement leftwards (which in fairness seems to be playing very well in Glasgow and its environs) and partly on the back of some fairly hefty tactical voting.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
This morning you can back Labour at odds against in every single Edinburgh seat
Edinburgh East 5/1 (widely available) Edinburgh North & Leith 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair) Edinburgh South 11/10 (Coral, Paddy Power) Edinburgh South West 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetVictor) Edinburgh West 5/1 (Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
I don't think Labour will end up in single figures in Scotland. Some Edinburgh and surrounding seats are inching back to Labour from the SNP.
Is Dagenham in play now ?
I spoke for hours yesterday with a reasonably big name in Dagenham life... and he is prob voting UKIP.. but he doesn't live in Dagenham!
Some of local activists think theyre in with a chance.. but others say in a seat w no UKIP councillors, victory is v unlikely
I watched some of the Political Studies Assoc YouTube videos yesterday. In one of them [Mr Ford?] said they thought UKIP have more support among previous non-voters than the data showed, as those people tended to not be caught in surveys.
Fingers crossed for UKIP to surprise the pollsters! :-)
Mr. Dave, oh, aye, I don't mind sci-fi actors/actresses getting multiple gigs in the genre, but it's just weird seeing two I knew very well from Farscape in SG-1 [and, as you say, Aeryn is far cooler than, er, whatever her Stargate character was called].
I have posted this before, but I think they're making a new Farscape film. If it does well, a new series could be in the offing.
I True Detective - until the last show it was stunning. Finale = was lazy - Matthew McCononhey [sp] is so great at laid back Southerner. Fiddling with those lager cans was epic suspense.
I've just bought MASH on DVD - I have to block out a few days to binge it.
Been watching Between The Lines from the 90s about police corruption with Neil Pearson - it really is excellent. Siobhan Redmond is super too.imdb.com/title/tt0103362/?ref_=nv_sr_2
Con 302 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+3) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 40 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
JackW seat predition very worrying for the tories.
In less than two weeks tories have lost around 12 seats and if the downward turns carry on,we could be heading for 280 odd tory seats and 270 odd labour seats under JackW poll for his final score ;-)
Is it that the Tories are actually losing ground or that Jack's predictions are coming into line with the polls? You could argue it's the same thing if you've priced in a hefty dose of swingback that's failed to materialise if (and only if) you accept the model.
That said, on the above numbers, Cameron would be back in Downing St., either in coalition with the Lib Dems or with their passive support. I note also that Jack's SNP score is quite conservative going on current polls.
Any Fox or CW show recycles actors like I don't know what. The Canadian shows have a small pool to fish in and I play Where Did I See You Before in almost every one.
I felt StarGate was a bit too silly for me and slow - and I do silly. I liked Stargate with Mr Carlisle. Which one was that?
PS I've got all the ancient Dr Who's recorded via Horror Channel - we're saving Colin ones now.
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
I like the way the Stargate team cast actors from other sci-fi series. I think it's clever marketing, and I like seeing the actors again.
It would be better still if they kept their original characters too. Aeryn Sun was a much better character than the Stargate one.
Any Fox or CW show recycles actors like I don't know what. The Canadian shows have a small pool to fish in and I play Where Did I See You Before in almost every one.
I felt StarGate was a bit too silly for me and slow - and I do silly. I liked Stargate with Mr Carlisle. Which one was that?
PS I've got all the ancient Dr Who's recorded via Horror Channel - we're saving Colin ones now.
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
I like the way the Stargate team cast actors from other sci-fi series. I think it's clever marketing, and I like seeing the actors again.
It would be better still if they kept their original characters too. Aeryn Sun was a much better character than the Stargate one.
Stargate Universe? That's the one that killed off the franchise sadly.
SG1 was one of my favourite series of all time. Though it should have ended at the end of season 8 (before the 2 Farscape characters joined). Season 8's finale finished off the overarching storyline the show had always been about, season's 9&10 dragged it out too far making it feel a tad stale which was a shame.
One thing I've found odd about the debates is how keen the various candidates are to stress their desire to splurge borrowed money. The programme doesn't seem to matter, just spending _more_.
The absence of SLABers was most peculiar over the years, I assumed they were too lofty to engage. Now I wonder if it's just symptomatic of apathy that's been critically exposed this time around.
It's been in explicable that we've had none IIRC over all my years here - perhaps its actually endemic entitlement.
Should we be surprised at the death of SLAB? After all I can barely recall ever reading from any SLAB poster here on PB. Whereas we have had several from SNP and a few SCONS. Just an unrepresentative sample but why were SLAB so quiet on here during the lead in to the independence vote?
It's more complicated than apathy.
The problem with SLAB is that the machine has never required "footsoldiers". They don't campaign so they don't need them. They select their candidates from the ranks of the Unions and (much more than in England) the Co-Operative Movement so people didn't need to join the party and campaign on the ground to progress on the path to power and position.
The reality is that they were always an empty shell with numbers padded by Social Clubs and Unions.
The referendum exposed this, hence the bussing of activists from England. And now it's more apparent than ever.
Ironically Labour were (and probably still are) by far the most active political party on University campuses. But their party structure prevents this translating into any useful pool of activists.
Miss Plato, Universe, with RC. That would've been better as a different IP/franchise, though, as it felt too different [to me] to the previous Stargate series.
I felt SG-1 got the perfect blend of humour [often lacking in SFF] and seriousness. And it had perhaps the best balanced 'team' of any TV series.
Comments
Edinburgh South could well hold still. I reckon its the toughest.
Plus 1.5% is still a major currency.
He must be sorely tempted.
ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is now like methadone to our junkie clapped out economy addicted to ever greater amounts of credit, to achieve an ever diminishing growth return.
Base rates will be below 1% for the entire period of the next parliament, because Carney cannot afford a (needed) real estate asset price correction which would create recession for an economy that largely relies on this sector (directly and indirectly).
That will suit whoever gets in just fine, because they will not want to be the party in power that crashes the housing market. Also and for the same reasons, all of the claims being made on increasing the housing stock are pure BS.
It is in the west they are having real problems.
Three in a row ICM's showing a Tory lead, I think all 3 being rogue seems unlikely. ICM could be wrong, but I don't think they're all rogues.
OGH said there is another ICM on Monday. It will be interesting to see if there is much change.
Don't get me wrong - I think the good lord has done a great service to the nation during this election - but would it really suit his agenda to commission a poll showing the the SNP struggling to hit 25% in the LD's safest seat?
Why waste £10k?
Though somebody said ICM do the fieldwork for Lord Ashcroft so it may all be the same company in the end?
"So part of my personal manifesto is going to be a medium-term perspective that is focused on making Britain viable but fair. That means, specifically, that I don’t favour significant tax cuts for individuals unless they’re funded from other sources. I’m sorry, but we need to be honest with each other. At the moment, we can’t afford them, and I’d recommend looking with suspicion at anyone who says we can."
Nick's problem is that he is almost a lone voice shouting in the Labour wilderness, as practically none of his party are taking a longer term view and probably would not even know what that means - which is years of tightening belts before we get there.
1) The true polling is somewhere between ICM and the rest, currently giving CONS 2-3% lead
2) Blue leaning UKIPs come home over the next 2 weeks spooked by LAB/SNP scenario.
3) A 1% swing from Lab to Con, brought about by aspirational types impressed with RTB and the SNP situation
4) 2-3% of LAB voters don't show up on the day, due to being lazy sleeping hungover students, not on the electoral roll, rain and wind on polling day etc etc.
Result - Tory majority of 20-40.
Personally I think Cam will get no more that 290, but the CON ceiling appears a lot higher than the LAB one to me.
Opinium (online)
ComRes (online)
YouGov (online)
And probably the ICM wisdom thing which is also online I think?
The dominance of online polling continues in this campaign...
If we were seeing a lot of ICMs at that end of the scale then what you're saying would make sense, but we've only seen that single poll from anyone, and even if that was right it's not clear that it would be enough.
I'm not saying Con maj is impossibly unlikely, but it's at least as far from where available evidence is pointing as Lab maj.St.
Think of all those productive column inches generated for the papers and advertising in said papers. The Scotsman needs every penny it can get as it's dying off as fast as the Union.
Although if I am demonstrating a possible scenario, I try to always caveat it with my own opinion at the end (which in itself isn't necessarily my preferred scenario).
We seem dead set on a hung parliament either way.
It's really hard trying to beat out your own biases when coming up with a tissue price.
Still, politics/current affairs are one of the few areas of betting where I have a substantial and consistent edge over the bookies - so I must be doing something right.
It seems so, according to his vanilla profile.
Seriously, I watched it all and saw this fascinating article about Quincy MD in Cult TV Times about forensic science and the law changes - many rubbish old TV as pulp, but there's nuggets in d'em hills... washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/12/25/jack-klugmans-secret-lifesaving-legacy/
However, the coalition has increased penalties on employers who pay less than the legal minimum and has placed a cap on non-EU migration - a fact conveniently ignored by EdM.
The near death of SLAB does help the Conservatives chances in that resources have had to be diverted to SLAB. Unfortunately for SLAB this looks to have been far too late a switch. Something one poster politely recommended last year.
The 90-minute special follows Murray as he stands against Britain's established political parities as the sole candidate for his Free United Kingdom Party (FUKP) and will broadcast the minute polls close at 10:00pm on 7th May.
The documentary will feature fly-on-the-wall access to the 'Guv's' campaign trail and meetings with his trusted political advisors. It'll be edited right up until transmission, with footage from the very end of his campaign.
The show will also be updated with results and footage from election night, and then shown again at a later date, RadioTimes.com understands.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
JackW seat predition very worrying for the tories.
In less than two weeks tories have lost around 12 seats and if the downward turns carry on,we could be heading for 280 odd tory seats and 270 odd labour seats under JackW poll for his final score ;-)
How about Hill Street Blues?
Bloody weird seeing him as House after George (in Blackadder) though. Almost as disconcerting as having Crichton and Aeryn in the last two series of Stargate: SG-1.
Were we to assume a more plausible split of 36/10 for Con/UKIP, with the other numbers remaining the same, then Baxter puts the Conservatives on 311 seats, a strong position.
Windeze?
After the debates, they never overstated the tories in 7 polls up to the date of the election.
If Monday's ICM shows high 30s for tories, then I think it would be very foolish indeed to discount it.
It's been in explicable that we've had none IIRC over all my years here - perhaps its actually endemic entitlement.
Edinburgh East 5/1 (widely available)
Edinburgh North & Leith 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Edinburgh South 11/10 (Coral, Paddy Power)
Edinburgh South West 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetFred, BoyleSports, BetVictor)
Edinburgh West 5/1 (Paddy Power, BoyleSports)
These rumours aren't making their way into bets.
Clearly ICM was over the top on the Con number but they have been consistently showing the Tories ahead while all other pollsters show them neck and neck or behind.
If Con was to win the national share of the vote it would be congrats to ICM, IMO.
Well, more arrogant.
Been watching Between The Lines from the 90s about police corruption with Neil Pearson - it really is excellent. Siobhan Redmond is super too.imdb.com/title/tt0103362/?ref_=nv_sr_2
The reason for the SLAB situation is that they were always seen as the key anti-Tory vote; they never really had to work for it.
After the IndyRef, the SNP are seen as a viable alternative AND Labour cosied up to the hated Tories.
Therefore I don't think there will be much pulling back to Labour, and the SNP will do very well and match the polls. The question will be how much tactical anti-SNP voting there might be.
Some of local activists think theyre in with a chance.. but others say in a seat w no UKIP councillors, victory is v unlikely
I'm a huge fan of trick riding and there's loads in there. Saw Valley of Gwangi a few weeks ago and the stunt riding in that Western Meets Dinosaurs was superb.
It would be better still if they kept their original characters too. Aeryn Sun was a much better character than the Stargate one.
It's getting a bit creepy on a number of levels.
Haven't seen Fortitude - will look it up. FYI imdb.com/title/tt3498622/?ref_=nv_sr_1
Is your handle a reference to THX 1138?
The problem with SLAB is that the machine has never required "footsoldiers". They don't campaign so they don't need them. They select their candidates from the ranks of the Unions and (much more than in England) the Co-Operative Movement so people didn't need to join the party and campaign on the ground to progress on the path to power and position.
The reality is that they were always an empty shell with numbers padded by Social Clubs and Unions.
The referendum exposed this, hence the bussing of activists from England. And now it's more apparent than ever.
Ironically Labour were (and probably still are) by far the most active political party on University campuses. But their party structure prevents this translating into any useful pool of activists.
Agreed, SNP is now polling around 20% swings. However, it will not be even. Some will be 15% , other 25% and so on.
Some of these lower swings may not be enough to topple the incumbent. That said, I do not give Labour more than 10.
Fingers crossed for UKIP to surprise the pollsters! :-)
I have posted this before, but I think they're making a new Farscape film. If it does well, a new series could be in the offing.
Sad/Not Sad fact, I didn't even know who he was before I watched that.. had never heard of him!
That said, on the above numbers, Cameron would be back in Downing St., either in coalition with the Lib Dems or with their passive support. I note also that Jack's SNP score is quite conservative going on current polls.
I felt StarGate was a bit too silly for me and slow - and I do silly. I liked Stargate with Mr Carlisle. Which one was that?
PS I've got all the ancient Dr Who's recorded via Horror Channel - we're saving Colin ones now.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18/public-most-embarrassed-vote-ukip-most-proud-vote-/
SG1 was one of my favourite series of all time. Though it should have ended at the end of season 8 (before the 2 Farscape characters joined). Season 8's finale finished off the overarching storyline the show had always been about, season's 9&10 dragged it out too far making it feel a tad stale which was a shame.
I felt SG-1 got the perfect blend of humour [often lacking in SFF] and seriousness. And it had perhaps the best balanced 'team' of any TV series.
Bad omen for the LDs.