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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the econ

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down

You might think that the extremely positive employment figures released yesterday would be cause for a great deal of campaigning from the Conservatives, both positively on their record and negatively against Labour.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    First!!!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Curious that the main markets should take the SNP jump in their stride to quite such an extent, in that it implies Labour on about 5 fewer seats than previously expected. Which is quite material to Most Seats.

    Some firms haven't even moved their Lab line.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Interesting article as always DH.

    Ok the topic of interest rates, these typically rise to combat inflation which we currently don't have any of. While Europe has joined Japan in deflation. Once inflation starts picking up we can start to raise rates (even if inflation is still below the 2% target) but not before. We don't want to risk deflation.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912

    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2015
    scotslass said:

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.


    NURSE! – we have another escapee…!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    scotslass said:

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.


    NURSE! – we have another escapee…!
    Or at least call the technician to fix the capslock button on their keyboard :)
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    You did write the thing in caps though :D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    The kid can have another go at the jump later
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    It's funny to reflect that SLABs current problems are really only just beginning.

    There seems to be a consensus that 2015 is now done. SLABbers and commentators are starting to turn their attention to 2016 and the "Big Comeback" of SLAB. But, is this even remotely possible.

    Consider this.

    In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).

    Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, cannot be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.

    Now consider this.

    There will be : -

    30 or so former MPs
    20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
    15 FPTP MSPs
    22 List MSPs
    10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
    10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot

    That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.

    Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.

    Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited April 2015
    MTimT said:

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
    I don't see why it's necessary to increase interest rates until QE is fully unwound? Or is the secret that they don't want to unwind QE because it is providing the Govt with interest free debt?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dair said:

    It's funny to reflect that SLABs current problems are really only just beginning.

    There seems to be a consensus that 2015 is now done. SLABbers and commentators are starting to turn their attention to 2016 and the "Big Comeback" of SLAB. But, is this even remotely possible.

    Consider this.

    In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).

    Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, cannot be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.

    Now consider this.

    There will be : -

    30 or so former MPs
    20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
    15 FPTP MSPs
    22 List MSPs
    10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
    10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot

    That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.

    Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.

    Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?

    Some of them no doubt will be coming to a constituency near you (in rUK)....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543
    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    It's funny to reflect that SLABs current problems are really only just beginning.

    There seems to be a consensus that 2015 is now done. SLABbers and commentators are starting to turn their attention to 2016 and the "Big Comeback" of SLAB. But, is this even remotely possible.

    Consider this.

    In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).

    Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, cannot be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.

    Now consider this.

    There will be : -

    30 or so former MPs
    20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
    15 FPTP MSPs
    22 List MSPs
    10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
    10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot

    That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.

    Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.

    Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?

    Some of them no doubt will be coming to a constituency near you (in rUK)....
    Or a Quango/Charity/Housing Association.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour and SNP take over just as Grexit pounds the economy - could be interesting times ahead.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    Did Alex go for a brief stroll across the North Sea afterwards? Then host a fish supper?

    We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    On the topic of QE, when do we stop calling it QE and just accept it as new money? For what it's worth I'm expecting a lot more 'QE' in the next year or so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543

    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    Did Alex go for a brief stroll across the North Sea afterwards? Then host a fish supper?

    We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
    You'll be out of a job soon. Alex Salmond needs only to touch the sick to heal them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    Did Alex go for a brief stroll across the North Sea afterwards? Then host a fish supper?

    We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
    One outcome of a Lab - SNP pact would be further pressure on Scottish jobs and the economy. The referendum uncertainty lives on and business will continue not to invest. Labour will no doubt get the blame north and South of the border as the imbalance in spending will widen initially until the RUk turns down as socialism bites.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @tlg86

    QE is not "new" money. We all pay for it (in the form of lower currency value), it then gets concentrated and handed on to those in need.
    The "needy" like to remain quiet about it in case people start asking questions.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @tlg86

    QE is not "new" money. We all pay for it (in the form of lower currency value), it then gets concentrated and handed on to those in need.
    The "needy" like to remain quiet about it in case people start asking questions.

    Yep, the 1% - who tell us they would flee at the first sign of a tax rise - have essentially been fed money by our government and others for a sustained period now. Never has there been a better time to be super-rich.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited April 2015
    The Tories believe in a smaller state, but will not make the case for it. Instead, they tell us they will spend big and look after us from cradle to grave. Either they have become social democrats or they will not trust voters with the truth. Likewise Labour is supposed to believe in a redistributive state, but will not make the case for one. Even the blessed SNP will not tell the truth about what their fundamental belief in separation will mean for Scots.

    This is a surreal election in which all parties - perhaps with the exception of the Greens - are too scared to confront the electorate with what they truly believe.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    For the first time, I believe I saw Labour acknowledging the reality of "Scotland Year Zero", with Murphy [has he turned grey overnight, btw?] literally begging people to vote Labour...

    Pathetic. Good riddance to him, Dougie and a phalanx of wheezy life-insurance risks, who were neither use nor ornament at Westminster.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    Did Alex go for a brief stroll across the North Sea afterwards? Then host a fish supper?

    We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
    You'll be out of a job soon. Alex Salmond needs only to touch the sick to heal them.
    Party Political Health Cures.

    Nigel Farage need only have a pint with the afflicted to slash A&E waiting lists to zero.

    Nick Clegg anoints open toed sandals to cure gout

    Ed Miliband blesses bacon sandwiches to slash the obesity crisis

    David Cameron walks on water to assist water births in maternity wards



  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    Elections were ever thus.
    The art of government is to make people "believe" in it.
    Elections are about testing public gullibility.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    Through dogged hard work and outstanding ability they have been able to take advantage of the free money that has been showered upon them. They deserve nothing but our undying gratitude and admiration. Cut their taxes, say I, but feed them more of ours. For truly they are better than us, the ungrateful, unwashed scum.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited April 2015
    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    Welcome to the Pragmatic Communists Party young padawan, you membership will be sent forthwith, and it is your mission in life to disseminate the message through all the best local pubs.
    It is a tough job, but a burden we shoulder willingly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    Welcome to the Pragmatic Communists Party young padawan, you membership will be sent forthwith, and it is your mission in life to disseminate the message through all the best local pubs.
    It is a tough job, but a burden we shoulder willingly.

    No chance! I want that free money ;-)

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    But the benefits are enormous.
    You can wait till the fellow drinkers are suitably relaxed, then tell them that religion exists, but that money is entirely faith based.

    (It is one of the moments of joy when they try to explain why it isn't)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    But the benefits are enormous.
    You can wait till the fellow drinkers are suitably relaxed, then tell them that religion exists, but that money is entirely faith based.

    (It is one of the moments of joy when they try to explain why it isn't)

    I believe.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

    Turnout !
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    alex. said:

    MTimT said:

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
    I don't see why it's necessary to increase interest rates until QE is fully unwound? Or is the secret that they don't want to unwind QE because it is providing the Govt with interest free debt?
    The reason the bank won't raise rates is that probably half of all mortgages are presaged on 0.5% so if rates went up an awful lot of households would be in severe financial trouble. They'd default on payments, repossessions would time and house prices would fall. No politician wants to see that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    RodCrosby said:


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
    I think that’s a tad unfair. He describes being part of a chain getting people out, and I’ve bever heard of anyone denting his comments.

    SLAB might be going down the toilet on his watch, with him being part of the problem, but as a human being he did the right thing.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    I've seen a Labour poster in Witney. Cameron in trouble!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited April 2015
    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?
  • JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

    I can't wait ..... will the Tories' mini slide as witnessed in the two previous two ARSE forecasts be halted or will it continue, accelerate even? The projected turnout figures should be interesting too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Tabman said:

    alex. said:

    MTimT said:

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
    I don't see why it's necessary to increase interest rates until QE is fully unwound? Or is the secret that they don't want to unwind QE because it is providing the Govt with interest free debt?
    The reason the bank won't raise rates is that probably half of all mortgages are presaged on 0.5% so if rates went up an awful lot of households would be in severe financial trouble. They'd default on payments, repossessions would time and house prices would fall. No politician wants to see that.
    That's not true. Mortgage payments as a percent of disposable income are at 100 year lows in the UK. You would have to see interest rates rise to perhaps 4% for them to even approach average levels.

    That being said, raising mortgage payments for millions - perhaps 10 million - people just ahead of an election would be political suicide.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    Tabman said:

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
    And Boston thinks it’s got problems with immigrants .........
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver

    The SNP "vision" comes with major consequences.
    Some good, some bad, but the same as for the other parties, no one spells it out.
    Politicians prefer to appeal to emotion rather than logic.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

    Guaranteed BRAN free?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

    Guaranteed BRAN free?
    You clearly enjoy the company over at ConHome .... :smile:

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JackW
    Biased Royalist ARSE Nonsense?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Tabman said:

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
    And Boston thinks it’s got problems with immigrants .........
    At least Boston wasn't votes worst place to live in the UK

    "Anything you can do in Rhyl you can do better elsewhere"
    - Rough Guide to Wales
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RodCrosby said:


    Some of them no doubt will be coming to a constituency near you (in rUK)....

    How many SLABbers do you think can realistically expect an invite south?

    Wee Dougie? Probably, he's the only certainty.
    Mags Curran? Can you imagine her outside Glasgow? Scare the weans.
    #creepyjim? Lacks supporters. Needs an epic shift on Labour positioning.

    There's not much else I can think of. Clark too left wing, Osborne nah, I can't think of half their names. The borders guy? IDK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

    ..............................................

    AND NOW ALSO WITH NEW ADDED & IMPROVED PROJECTION TURNOUT

    It kills 99% of all other household projection turnouts. :smiley:

    Guaranteed BRAN free?
    You clearly enjoy the company over at ConHome .... :smile:

    :naughty:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Indigo said:

    Tabman said:

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
    And Boston thinks it’s got problems with immigrants .........
    At least Boston wasn't votes worst place to live in the UK

    "Anything you can do in Rhyl you can do better elsewhere"
    - Rough Guide to Wales
    The KFC in Rhyl used to have a bouncer on the door to stop trouble.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".

    Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,502


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Over hyped as ever , he helped some people out of the pub along with many others. The others were not mentioned, but saint Jim milked it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    There are variations on the theme, but it is basically used to paper over cracks in the "free market"
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    alex. said:

    MTimT said:

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
    I don't see why it's necessary to increase interest rates until QE is fully unwound? Or is the secret that they don't want to unwind QE because it is providing the Govt with interest free debt?
    The two do a similar job in slightly different ways, affecting different parts of the economy, but in the first instance my own view is that yes, unwinding QE should be the starting point. I referenced the stock market not because it's more important than unemployment or growth but because it being at record levels is not unconnected to the indirect flow of QE into shares. That's not necessarily a bad thing but it can be a distorting one, both in value and corporate actions.

    Monetary policy should be aimed at managing future inflation and growth, rather than running to catch up with what's already happened. It's true that inflation is at historically very low levels but much of that is due to one-off factors which are unlikely to repeat, such as a halving of the oil price. So against a backdrop of what's going on in the rest of the economy, now is the time to start (actually, several months ago was the time to start but we can't do that now).

    Ref Sterling, it would probably go up were monetary policy to be tightened but then last summer £1 bought $1.70; now it buys $1.50 so a little appreciation can be handled - and unwinding QE while keeping rates at 0.5 or 0.75% shouldn't attract too much overseas money. Indeed, unwinding QE first is one way of taking some of the heat out of the housing market and share prices without putting too much strain on exporters, but the point made by tabman is right (if overstated) that far too many homeowners (and, implicitly, lenders and regulators?) are working on the expectation of crisis-level rates lasting indefinitely.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RodCrosby said:


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
    From the interview, I do tend to think it was genuine but I cannot for the life of me work out how he was there. Clutha is pretty isolated, Jim isn't a drinker, there's no decent restaurants within at least a mile.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @tlg86

    QE is not "new" money. We all pay for it (in the form of lower currency value), it then gets concentrated and handed on to those in need.
    The "needy" like to remain quiet about it in case people start asking questions.

    The £ is trading around 1.38 to the Euro. Inflation is zero. What exactly do you mean by lower currency value?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".

    Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
    Firstly, you misunderstand the purpose of QE. Economic theory dictates that MV = PT. That is, the price level is a function of the amount of money in circulation multiplied by the velocity of money. During the Global Financial Crisis, the savings rate spiked, causing a consequent collapse in the velocity of money. Policy makers were very concerned that this would lead to a deflationary spiral - where negative interest rates caused a further increase in the savings rates, which caused even lower prices. The government cannot control the velocity of money, but QE allowed it to expand the amount of money in circulation so that MV continued to rise, albeit at a modest rate.

    Secondly, your suggestion that the government just print money and give it to "the people" is fraught with moral hazard. It was of course known as Notgeld or Emergency Money in Germany in the 1920s, but you can go back much further to John Law in France in the 1700s if you like. It ended badly, for all concerned.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Tabman said:

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
    And Boston thinks it’s got problems with immigrants .........
    At least Boston wasn't votes worst place to live in the UK

    "Anything you can do in Rhyl you can do better elsewhere"
    - Rough Guide to Wales
    The KFC in Rhyl used to have a bouncer on the door to stop trouble.
    Was he a scouser? Did he have tattoo'd knuckles? I think we should be told...

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    alex. said:

    MTimT said:

    Not my field but wouldn't raising interest rates with no inflation while everyone else has zero or negative interest rates send the pound through the roof and clobber exporters?

    Sounds about right.
    the point made by tabman is right (if overstated) that far too many homeowners (and, implicitly, lenders and regulators?) are working on the expectation of crisis-level rates lasting indefinitely.
    You can get 7 year fixed rates of c3.5% at present
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    But the benefits are enormous.
    You can wait till the fellow drinkers are suitably relaxed, then tell them that religion exists, but that money is entirely faith based.

    (It is one of the moments of joy when they try to explain why it isn't)

    Money is a concept which describes Value held in Promissory Notes and coins.

    Not really a hard concept to grasp.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    Where exactly does the "money" come from?
    The magic money tree?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Apparently a LibDem poll has Danny ahead by 22%! Free money!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    But the benefits are enormous.
    You can wait till the fellow drinkers are suitably relaxed, then tell them that religion exists, but that money is entirely faith based.

    (It is one of the moments of joy when they try to explain why it isn't)

    Money is a concept which describes Value held in Promissory Notes and coins.

    Not really a hard concept to grasp.
    No: money is a mechanism for ascribing economic value to things.

    Debt and savings are a method for allowing the "time transfer" of economic value (or work).
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    Where exactly does the "money" come from?
    The magic money tree?

    Oh of course it's just printed, as in the USA and now the EU. countries with sound economic leadership, as the IMF says, can do this - but nit where they want to blow it all on benefits, as in Greece. There's a lesson in there for Labour - they just don't get it unfortunately.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,502
    This is a perfect description http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-deadwood-stage/
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    Yes, it is entirely faith based.
    (to save arguments, the statement compares apples with oranges, you could as easily say that the finance sector exists, but God is faith based)
    Livens up a pub discussion no end though, when people don't notice.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    RodCrosby said:


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
    I think that’s a tad unfair. He describes being part of a chain getting people out, and I’ve bever heard of anyone denting his comments.

    SLAB might be going down the toilet on his watch, with him being part of the problem, but as a human being he did the right thing.
    But, SLAB isn’t going down the toilet on his watch.

    SLAB is going down the toilet on Ed Miliband’s watch.

    All the disasters (Holyrood 2011, Sindy, Westminster 2015) have happened on Ed’s watch, and he has not yet been held to account.

    The buck stops with the leader. Ed has spectacularly misunderstood & mismanaged Scotland. The tsunami started after the Sindy, with the tipping point being the resignation of Lamont who confirmed what the SNP had been saying all the time, that SLAB was run from Westminster.

    This is one of the reasons I think Ed will find it very hard to survive if he only gets 250 or 260 seats and loses all of Scotland.

    There won’t be any SNP+Lab progressive alliance. There will be a decapitation, and while Ed’s head lies in the gutter, Lab will chose someone else
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    Well done Felix, you can print money as long as it is spent on what is needed?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    scotslass said:


    Libby Brooks The Guardian 18TH April

    Alex Salmond is less than five minutes into his canvass of Port Elphinstone, an affluent village in the heart of Aberdeenshire, when he stops someone jumping out of a window.

    For the adoring crowds who have queued at packed signings of Salmond’s recently published memoir of last year’s independence referendum, The Dream Shall Never Die, the performance of such minor miracles is probably par for the course.

    But for 16-year-old Lewis Wilson it is, momentarily, a great embarrassment. There you are, preparing to jump out of your high bedroom window wearing some inadequate padding while your wee brother and two pals wait to capture the moment on their camera phones. Then, coincidentally, the former first minister of Scotland arrives, accompanied by a team of canary-yellow Scottish National party activists, a journalist and a professional photographer.

    Salmond immediately recognises the leg-breaking potential of the arrangement and proceeds to talk the lad down from his ledge. “Wouldn’t you prefer to get your photo taken with me?” he calls up. It is barely a question. Older and wiser men have found no reason to refuse the infamous Salmond photocall.

    Safely back on the ground, Lewis explains that his mum did some leafleting for the yes campaign during the referendum, but that he was too young to support Salmond’s cause himself. “He’s just a lovely man,” he says, as the candidate for the Westminster seat of Gordon strides off to the next doorstep.

    FOR PBers WHO STRUGGLE TO UNDERSTAND SALMOND'S PHENOMINAL POLITICAL REACH THEN READ THE ABOVE.AND LEARN.

    Did Alex go for a brief stroll across the North Sea afterwards? Then host a fish supper?

    We are blessed indeed to be able to touch the hem of his garment.
    You'll be out of a job soon. Alex Salmond needs only to touch the sick to heal them.
    Lol!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good morning, everyone.

    P3 ends at 2pm, I think, so the pre-qualifying piece will hopefully be up around then.

    I do agree the economy seems to have been less prominent than might reasonably have been expected. The main Conservative line is the danger of having a separatist party with a vested interest in causing ructions within the country allowing Miliband to be PM.

    That said, I do think there are serious issues with that potential scenario. As has been mentioned here before, it'd suggest Labour be behind the Conservatives in England, and such an agreement between Labour and the SNP could do massive damage to Labour now there's UKIP ready and willing to snap up their working class voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    Some UKIP-SNP swing voters there :)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    Some UKIP-SNP swing voters there :)
    Yes that young woman is the type of voter that even my ARSE has trouble digesting. :smiley:

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    Well done Felix, you can print money as long as it is spent on what is needed?

    No - as long as you are trusted on your handling of the economy as Ms Lagarde keeps helpfully pointing out as the lavishes praise on the UK and Mr. Osborne. I feel your pain on these matters.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    Well done Felix, you can print money as long as it is spent on what is needed?

    AKA Public Works

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".

    Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
    Firstly, you misunderstand the purpose of QE. Economic theory dictates that MV = PT. That is, the price level is a function of the amount of money in circulation multiplied by the velocity of money. During the Global Financial Crisis, the savings rate spiked, causing a consequent collapse in the velocity of money. Policy makers were very concerned that this would lead to a deflationary spiral - where negative interest rates caused a further increase in the savings rates, which caused even lower prices. The government cannot control the velocity of money, but QE allowed it to expand the amount of money in circulation so that MV continued to rise, albeit at a modest rate.

    Secondly, your suggestion that the government just print money and give it to "the people" is fraught with moral hazard. It was of course known as Notgeld or Emergency Money in Germany in the 1920s, but you can go back much further to John Law in France in the 1700s if you like. It ended badly, for all concerned.
    I understand the theory. I don't understand what you are claiming.

    There is no difference in terms of effect to giving printed money to individuals is comparison to giving the printed money to banks. Assuming the banks don't transfer the money out of the economy (remember not to rely on closed system analysis).
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    I feel no pain. It is not my logic that is faulty.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    The only way Danny will survive is if sufficient Unionists coalesce behind him. Sadly he's public enemy number 1 with Labour for working with Osborne and Tories are notoriously non-tactical!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Tabman said:

    The Scots have a consequence free way of registering their disregard, contempt even, for the Westminster elite. Of course they'll take it. And Labour is that elite writ large.

    Politics in Scotland will only normalise when Scottish politicians are seen to be responsible for the decisions they take. And, sadly for those of us who believe in solidarity and redistribution, that has to mean FFA within a federal UK or independence.

    One interesting consequence of the Scottish government having control over social security within the context of free movement of goods and people is that if they are more generous than they are in the rUK folk may be drawn to relocating up there. If you are unemployed and live in NE England, why not move a few miles up the road and get more money?

    This already exists in North Wales. There are lots of scouse unemployed living in HMO in places like Rhyl.
    And Boston thinks it’s got problems with immigrants .........
    At least Boston wasn't votes worst place to live in the UK

    "Anything you can do in Rhyl you can do better elsewhere"
    - Rough Guide to Wales
    The KFC in Rhyl used to have a bouncer on the door to stop trouble.
    Was he a scouser? Did he have tattoo'd knuckles? I think we should be told...

    Well, of course, this is a major problem in Wales.

    It is much cheaper for the Probation Service of England & Wales to place some ex-convict in Rhyl than in S.E. England. Hence, Rhyl is a very dangerous place.

    The Probation Service is not devolved, and aided by low housing costs, has exported English problems to Wales.

    Mark Bridger (killer of April Jones) is another example. Born in Surrey, the son of a London cop. Got into trouble over possession of a firearm, theft, and obtaining property by deception. Moved to Wales by the Probation Service, where no one knew him, to ‘make a fresh start’.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Dair said:

    RodCrosby said:


    Some of them no doubt will be coming to a constituency near you (in rUK)....

    How many SLABbers do you think can realistically expect an invite south?

    Wee Dougie? Probably, he's the only certainty.
    Mags Curran? Can you imagine her outside Glasgow? Scare the weans.
    #creepyjim? Lacks supporters. Needs an epic shift on Labour positioning.

    There's not much else I can think of. Clark too left wing, Osborne nah, I can't think of half their names. The borders guy? IDK.
    Whether they are able to get useful invites also depends on the state of English Labour come 2017-20. If Cameron gets back in, there may be quite a few tasty seats on offer. Apart from the regular safe seats that come up with retirement, governing for the next five years is not going to be particularly easy - the global economy is still fraught with tensions all over the place - and marginal will look more attractive.

    On the other hand, were Miliband to form a government off the back of the SNP, it's easy to see Labour being assailed by Con, Lib Dem, UKIP and Greens from different but interlocking positions, at which point there might be rather fewer attractive openings on offer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    RodCrosby said:


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
    I think that’s a tad unfair. He describes being part of a chain getting people out, and I’ve bever heard of anyone denting his comments.

    SLAB might be going down the toilet on his watch, with him being part of the problem, but as a human being he did the right thing.
    But, SLAB isn’t going down the toilet on his watch.

    SLAB is going down the toilet on Ed Miliband’s watch.

    All the disasters (Holyrood 2011, Sindy, Westminster 2015) have happened on Ed’s watch, and he has not yet been held to account.

    The buck stops with the leader. Ed has spectacularly misunderstood & mismanaged Scotland. The tsunami started after the Sindy, with the tipping point being the resignation of Lamont who confirmed what the SNP had been saying all the time, that SLAB was run from Westminster.

    This is one of the reasons I think Ed will find it very hard to survive if he only gets 250 or 260 seats and loses all of Scotland.

    There won’t be any SNP+Lab progressive alliance. There will be a decapitation, and while Ed’s head lies in the gutter, Lab will chose someone else
    Wouldn’t disagree with the general thrust, although I’ve seen no evidence that any SLAB leaderws have argued with Ed, apart from Lamont in her last statement.
    However I suspect that Ed will survive if he gets Labour into Government in the UK. I’m not sure though that he should have been quite as definite about no coalition “even” with the SNP, although that doesn’t ruile out confidence & supply.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Yes, it is entirely faith based.
    (to save arguments, the statement compares apples with oranges, you could as easily say that the finance sector exists, but God is faith based)
    Livens up a pub discussion no end though, when people don't notice.

    Money is faith-based but the faith is in people rather than gods.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Apparently a LibDem poll has Danny ahead by 22%! Free money!!!
    The problem for the lib dems and OGH is that they have to persuade people that the incumbency factor is working for it to work at all. If Danny is way behind in polls then people will desert him even more. A narrative in all LD seats ahas to be created to persuade people they are winning..hence the bar charts and spurious polls. In the past that worked as we didn't have the Ashcroft polling so nobody could challenge them with any degree of certainty..now they can.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    Sky is offering a ridiculously biased coverage of Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised if they get Ofcommed over it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    I feel no pain. It is not my logic that is faulty.

    Oh it's more than just 'faulty' - your political faith is over-riding it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @DH

    A good article as usual.

    I do think that the Tories will go heavily on the economy though. It is their strongest suit, and the master strategist did find time to go to the IMF for a reason. (Perhaps fishing for a job? Now that really would get under the skin of Gordon!).

    What surprises me is that the Tories do not respond to the £12 billion of welfare cuts by pointing out that the kindest way to cut the benefits bill is by reducing unemployment and taking the low paid out of tax. It is the obvious reply and one that Labour would struggle to reply to.

    Mind you the Labour jobs guarentee does seem a bit obselete in a time of effective full employment.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @david_herdson
    Yes, you have to believe they have the same "values" as you do for it to work.
    The same way it is necessary for religion.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    The only way Danny will survive is if sufficient Unionists coalesce behind him. Sadly he's public enemy number 1 with Labour for working with Osborne and Tories are notoriously non-tactical!
    The SNP were on 50% and have surged since then. It doesn't matter if every single other voter in the constituency votes for Danny. He's gone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Dair said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    Sky is offering a ridiculously biased coverage of Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised if they get Ofcommed over it.
    Are they required to be impartial?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".

    Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
    Firstly, you misunderstand the purpose of QE. Economic theory dictates that MV = PT. That is, the price level is a function of the amount of money in circulation multiplied by the velocity of money. During the Global Financial Crisis, the savings rate spiked, causing a consequent collapse in the velocity of money. Policy makers were very concerned that this would lead to a deflationary spiral - where negative interest rates caused a further increase in the savings rates, which caused even lower prices. The government cannot control the velocity of money, but QE allowed it to expand the amount of money in circulation so that MV continued to rise, albeit at a modest rate.

    Secondly, your suggestion that the government just print money and give it to "the people" is fraught with moral hazard. It was of course known as Notgeld or Emergency Money in Germany in the 1920s, but you can go back much further to John Law in France in the 1700s if you like. It ended badly, for all concerned.
    Doesn't that reinforce my 'p.s.'? Essentially, once the velocity returns to something like normal, the QE must be withdrawn, else prices shoot up (assuming T is constant)?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    What political faith?
    Are you making assumptions?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543

    RodCrosby said:


    scotslass said:

    Simon and Clare

    I didn't write the article - Libby Brooks of the Guardian did.

    If it had been Murphy the lad would have jumped!

    Was not Murphy hailed, if not as a hero, but something near it, in the Glasgow Police Helicopeter crash a couple of years ago?
    Happened to be out on a mad night in Glasgow. Stopped to take a gander. Found a TV crew to recount his experiences to...
    I think that’s a tad unfair. He describes being part of a chain getting people out, and I’ve bever heard of anyone denting his comments.

    SLAB might be going down the toilet on his watch, with him being part of the problem, but as a human being he did the right thing.
    But, SLAB isn’t going down the toilet on his watch.

    SLAB is going down the toilet on Ed Miliband’s watch.

    All the disasters (Holyrood 2011, Sindy, Westminster 2015) have happened on Ed’s watch, and he has not yet been held to account.

    The buck stops with the leader. Ed has spectacularly misunderstood & mismanaged Scotland. The tsunami started after the Sindy, with the tipping point being the resignation of Lamont who confirmed what the SNP had been saying all the time, that SLAB was run from Westminster.

    This is one of the reasons I think Ed will find it very hard to survive if he only gets 250 or 260 seats and loses all of Scotland.

    There won’t be any SNP+Lab progressive alliance. There will be a decapitation, and while Ed’s head lies in the gutter, Lab will chose someone else
    I think Jim Murphy has done as well as anyone could. His problem is that you can't fatten the pig on Market day.

    Labour's organisation is excellent in London, and many Con/Lab marginals, but rotten everywhere else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,648
    Dair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver

    QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.

    QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".

    Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
    Firstly, you misunderstand the purpose of QE. Economic theory dictates that MV = PT. That is, the price level is a function of the amount of money in circulation multiplied by the velocity of money. During the Global Financial Crisis, the savings rate spiked, causing a consequent collapse in the velocity of money. Policy makers were very concerned that this would lead to a deflationary spiral - where negative interest rates caused a further increase in the savings rates, which caused even lower prices. The government cannot control the velocity of money, but QE allowed it to expand the amount of money in circulation so that MV continued to rise, albeit at a modest rate.

    Secondly, your suggestion that the government just print money and give it to "the people" is fraught with moral hazard. It was of course known as Notgeld or Emergency Money in Germany in the 1920s, but you can go back much further to John Law in France in the 1700s if you like. It ended badly, for all concerned.
    I understand the theory. I don't understand what you are claiming.

    There is no difference in terms of effect to giving printed money to individuals is comparison to giving the printed money to banks. Assuming the banks don't transfer the money out of the economy (remember not to rely on closed system analysis).
    The government didn't "give" money to banks. It bought gilts.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    SKY News reporting from Danny Alexander's constituency in a piece likely to be shown throughout the morning.

    And the verdict is adios Danny?
    Various voxpox with no clear picture. SKY News Joey Jones indicating many voters wary of disclosing voting intention but his impression is that the SNP inclined are generally more open about their support as referenced by the referendum campaign.

    Sky is offering a ridiculously biased coverage of Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised if they get Ofcommed over it.
    Are they required to be impartial?
    Yes. Broadcast news in the UK must be impartial.
This discussion has been closed.