The BoE currently "hands back" to the government the profit it makes on interest on government bonds. This is (in effect) actual money printing of the kind advocated by Dair.
You misunderstand me then.
I do not advocate printing money AT ALL.
I advocate Sending Cheques as better than the current QE.
But QE itself, the action was unnecessary and pointless. A small nation like the UK has virtually no control of its inflation rate nowadays all actions designed to try and control inflation in any direction do not work.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
@BBCr4today: ‘The vast majority of votes affecting health & education [in Eng], the SNP would vote on’ - Alex Salmond #r4today http://t.co/DYfh032kv9
Not if EV4EL is enacted.
But isn't the point of the discussion is that the Tories will not be able to muster a majority even with their allies. If they could, everything else is academic.
The Tories would give the SNP as much power as they want. The quid pro quo will be sharply lower number of MPs from Scotland.
Practically, as I see it, Scotland is already a separate country. We are only pretending otherwise.
That will be the effect from the SNP landslide. Only a very quick change of fortunes at HolyRood could show that to be false, and that doesn't look likely to say the least.
Mr. Surbiton, that's an unacceptable quid pro quo.
You cannot hurl vast powers at Scotland* and then still have MPs from there voting on English-only matters for which they cannot be held to account.
*cue SNPers suggesting Holyrood will get minimal powers. If this does occur, a second referendum will happen.
An English Parliament is an obvious solution. The left want to fiddle little fiefdoms for themselves and the Conservatives appear peculiarly worried about emasculating Westminster.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
Mr. Surbiton, that's an unacceptable quid pro quo.
You cannot hurl vast powers at Scotland* and then still have MPs from there voting on English-only matters for which they cannot be held to account.
*cue SNPers suggesting Holyrood will get minimal powers. If this does occur, a second referendum will happen.
An English Parliament is an obvious solution. The left want to fiddle little fiefdoms for themselves and the Conservatives appear peculiarly worried about emasculating Westminster.
Abolish the Lords, put in place an English parliament - been saying this for ages.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
Salmond and the SNP want a Tory government. The best way for them to get one is for him to appear on the radio and TV in England as much as possible.
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford. It shows we have major problems with competitiveness in that we cannot sell enough goods and services to pay for our consumption. This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment.
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
Mr. Observer, indeed, it's win-win for the SNP. Piss off the English and help prise them away from Labour and towards The Hated Tories, and remind the Scots that only one party is 100% Scottish.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
By the way, did we get that trailed midnight delight of one party naming someone who'd have a specific job in government if they won?
Some dear related to the Blair Gov't being bought in by Dave to reform pensions.
Ludicrously overhyped.
The woman appears to have a background with Saga and as a "pensioners campaigner".
The reason I suspect most people have never heard of her is that she will be a regular in the type of printed magazine Saga customers read and has little online presence. As such she demonstrates what a danger any more Conservative government would be,
She will appeal strongly to pensioners who want yet more out of others. The most destructive generation in history will get to leverage even more from the first generation every to be poorer than their parents.
This should be very, very scary for anyone under 50.
Investment tip - buy Saga.
I will vote for anyone that lets you take your pension pot tax free. Think what a boost that would be for the economy.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
Salmond and the SNP want a Tory government. The best way for them to get one is for him to appear on the radio and TV in England as much as possible.
That is secondary.
The primary goal of the SNP in this election campaign is to keep the SNP on the national agenda. Now the debates are over, it's back to Good Cop/Bad Cop so we'll see lots more "warnings" from Salmond followed by Nicola making trips to London and giving highly conciliatory speeches.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
Salmond and the SNP want a Tory government. The best way for them to get one is for him to appear on the radio and TV in England as much as possible.
Even Salmond and the SNP have limits to what they can achieve. That may be beyond them.
QE sounds so much better than Financial Services Bailout.
QE could be implemented just as easily via the style of George Bush' "Tax Refund".
Nothing requires printed money to go to the 1% other than government policy.
.
....
The government didn't "give" money to banks. It bought gilts.
You mean the government swapped once notional store of value with another notional store of value.
Point remains. Sending £1000 cheque to all adults is identical** to QE as implemented.
**Arguably sending the cheque is better as much more of the money stays in the economy and gets spent sooner making better use of the multiplier.
It's not the same at all, both in its effect so far, and also in the future. Sending £1000 to all adults represents a permanent increase in the money supply. QE is temporary and can be reversed (essentially the BoE sells the debt it holds for cash and then writes it out of its balance sheet). In some ways QE is limited in effectiveness compared with the former because a lot of it won't have made it into the frontline economy, but that probably explains why inflation hasn't taken off. QE has also served a useful purpose (depending on your viewpoint) of keeping down the cost of Govt debt, and in fact providing a source of Govt debt.
Thank you for talking an oasis of sense in a desert of rubbish.
QE, by definition, will decrease the interest rate. Simply because it adds demand to the purchase of gilts and thus its price. And, as any Economics student knows, the price of bonds and the yield [ interest paid as a proportion of the market value ] is inversely related.
Cashing in those bonds would have the opposite effect. But we don't know how much of the gilts purchase have already matured or will mature gradually.
Maybe that is the plan. Gradually, it will slowly go away. The government , of course, pays interest and the maturity sum to the BoE.
The BoE currently "hands back" to the government the profit it makes on interest on government bonds. This is (in effect) actual money printing of the kind advocated by Dair.
London charge Scotland for it as well so make a nice profit at our expense.
@DavidL - "This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment."
It is also a result of an anaemic British management class that prioritises short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy.
In terms of education, export-wise we do far, far worse than our major competitors in Europe and North America - almost all of whom have similar or worse levels of general educational attainment than us.
I've decided there is simply no point making these arguments with Tories. They are determined to believe all our problems lie with the little people who are lazy, entitled and without aspiration. The sad reality is that ordinary people have sacrificed a great deal over the last 30 years in terms of security at work and more lately even wages all in the name of making Britain a more dynamic economy. Sadly it hasn't happened because our major firms are not owned and run to be successful long term enterprises. Many corporate bosses might feel they have little choice given the cards they are dealt - which would be fine if they didn't insist on being the most extravagently remunerated executives in the world (per pound of turnover). But people just aren't angry enough. Instead plenty of people in boardrooms bemoan the 'anti-business' culture.
Mr. Surbiton, that's an unacceptable quid pro quo.
You cannot hurl vast powers at Scotland* and then still have MPs from there voting on English-only matters for which they cannot be held to account.
*cue SNPers suggesting Holyrood will get minimal powers. If this does occur, a second referendum will happen.
An English Parliament is an obvious solution. The left want to fiddle little fiefdoms for themselves and the Conservatives appear peculiarly worried about emasculating Westminster.
Ha Ha, MD it is coming, they are caught with their bollox in a vice , it is either lots more powers to Scotland or independence. They have to make a choice.
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford. It shows we have major problems with competitiveness in that we cannot sell enough goods and services to pay for our consumption. This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment.
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
LOL, they have made London with Scottish money, otherwise it would still have been a dump. When we are able to spend our money on Scotland we will see a sea change. Only a Scottish Tory could come out with such biased guff.
Salmond has to be careful I think, if there is too much bad blood between the politicians elected by Scotland and the UK Gov't, the Scots might try and push for i...
Oh wait
You'll note the rather fortuitous timing of his reappearance, with the debates over, no more national coverage planned for Nicola. It's almost as if he wanted the SNP to stay in the national media consciousness.
He'll be getting out the pink champers next.
How are his book sales going ?
Not a subsriber to the official listings but going by Amazon, it's still in Hardcopy and still at £9.09 (think it opened at £9.99. Ranked 1607.
In comparison with Farage Book which came out the day before, the latter is now in paperback and ranked at 2251.
Is there anyone on here who subscribes to the Times List with the numbers?
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford. It shows we have major problems with competitiveness in that we cannot sell enough goods and services to pay for our consumption. This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment.
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
I think politicians should be willing to tackle it more - I got an awful lot of good feedback when I wrote this:
Seems staggering at this election that Labour could be gaining Thatcher's old place, yet losing West Dunbartonshire which they've held since the age of the dinosaurs, but there we are.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
@DavidL - "This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment."
It is also a result of an anaemic British management class that prioritises short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy.
In terms of education, export-wise we do far, far worse than our major competitors in Europe and North America - almost all of whom have similar or worse levels of general educational attainment than us.
SO, I completely agree with your first paragraph. The absurd, incompetent, poorly trained and class orientated management structures of this country in the 60s and 70s in particular probably did more damage to our country than the mad unions. They deserved each other frankly.
I think there has been some improvement since the 80s in at least some of our industry but we simply do not take management nearly as seriously as, say, the Germans. We have an enormous tail of unproductive and underperforming business which gives us low productivity over all despite some areas of excellence.
I am not so sure that you are right about exports of education. We have a small elite in education which is some of the best in the world and very attractive to foreigners, not least because it is taught in English.
Where we fall down is that we tolerate completely unacceptable levels of failure for the majority of our population from a self referential and frankly deluded educational establishment which seems to think it is ok to have a child for 13 years and not be able to teach him or her how to read and count. Gove made many mistakes but he fundamentally got that. We will live to regret any retreat from his agenda.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
LOL, they have made London with Scottish money, otherwise it would still have been a dump. When we are able to spend our money on Scotland we will see a sea change. Only a Scottish Tory could come out with such biased guff.
Morning Malcolm. Now that the oil is largely gone what money would that be?
@DavidL - "This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment."
It is also a result of an anaemic British management class that prioritises short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy.
In terms of education, export-wise we do far, far worse than our major competitors in Europe and North America - almost all of whom have similar or worse levels of general educational attainment than us.
I've decided there is simply no point making these arguments with Tories. They are determined to believe all our problems lie with the little people who are lazy, entitled and without aspiration. The sad reality is that ordinary people have sacrificed a great deal over the last 30 years in terms of security at work and more lately even wages all in the name of making Britain a more dynamic economy. Sadly it hasn't happened because our major firms are not owned and run to be successful long term enterprises. Many corporate bosses might feel they have little choice given the cards they are dealt - which would be fine if they didn't insist on being the most extravagently remunerated executives in the world (per pound of turnover). But people just aren't angry enough. Instead plenty of people in boardrooms bemoan the 'anti-business' culture.
In reality, the situation is like this: those on the right are tempted to ascribe more responsibility for the nation's problems to "the little people who are lazy, entitled and without aspiration" than is justified, whereas those on the left are tempted to ascribe more responsiblity to "predators intent on ruining the country" than is justified.
Each represents a useful straw man, because they are both true to an extent - just not nearly enough. The sort of structural issues which create "short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy" (and more) are - in both cases under-represented. Because they are really hard to identify, quantify, relate to on the doorstep, and address. The result of not being able to talk about them is a need to talk about something else - and those on the left and right choose their own straw man to bounce off.
@DavidL - The first thing the Blair government did on Education was to introduce the numeracy and literacy hours to address that very problem, but clearly it is more complicated than alleging teachers don't want to teach children to read and write.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
LOL, they have made London with Scottish money, otherwise it would still have been a dump. When we are able to spend our money on Scotland we will see a sea change. Only a Scottish Tory could come out with such biased guff.
Morning Malcolm. Now that the oil is largely gone what money would that be?
Scotlands first act as an independent country will be to invade England and occupy the Weald.
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford. It shows we have major problems with competitiveness in that we cannot sell enough goods and services to pay for our consumption. This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment.
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
I think politicians should be willing to tackle it more - I got an awful lot of good feedback when I wrote this:
That said, it's impossible to argue on the doorstep or in media-friendly soundbites.
I think you linked to that before Nick and there is a lot of good sense in it. But this failure to address our real problems is indicative of the way this election in particular is being fought. Even soundbites seem to be getting too long and complicated and basic unchallenged assertion seemed to be the outcome of the "debates".
Take the NHS. We have a bidding war about who would spend more. This largely takes place in a vacuum without any discussion of what the country can actually afford or even what the country actually needs let alone what our priorities would be.
We have a tory party running away from the involvement of private enterprise because it polls so badly. Whether it might allow us to get more health for the same money is not even discussed. We have a Labour party saying that this is all the fault of a top down reorganisation which cost £3bn (ignoring the fact that over this Parliament this is approximately 0.5% of health spending and frankly irrelevant to outcomes as a result). Their solution? Reverse it all and repeal the Health and Social Care Act, presumably spending another £3bn.
We treat the electorate like infants and then complain because they behave in an infantile way without any consideration of cause and effect.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
LOL, they have made London with Scottish money, otherwise it would still have been a dump. When we are able to spend our money on Scotland we will see a sea change. Only a Scottish Tory could come out with such biased guff.
Morning Malcolm. Now that the oil is largely gone what money would that be?
Scotlands first act as an independent country will be to invade England and occupy the Weald.
I thought the Weald oil is only about 0.158% of what was originally proclaimed?
There is also the problem for Ed Miliband that in the South, outside of London, Labour are going to make very few gains. They are even having to fight to hold some southern seats.
@DavidL - The first thing the Blair government did on Education was to introduce the numeracy and literacy hours to address that very problem, but clearly it is more complicated than alleging teachers don't want to teach children to read and write.
Of course it is. In trying to be brief I am over simplifying. What concerns me is the refusal to acknowledge the problem and the outcomes by so much of the educational establishment.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I think the current SportingIndex figures point to none of them being possible... something like Lab + SNP = Con+ LD, both < 322.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
There are others.
4. Miliband + SNP + LD support (LD either in coalition or, more likely, not). 5. Cameron minority with LD initial abstentions on C&S matters (only possible if ICM is near the mark).
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I think the current SportingIndex figures point to none of them being possible... something like Lab + SNP = Con+ LD, both < 322.
UKIP is probably a buy and SNP a sell due to tail risk on both sides of each, though SNP probably looking good for 50ish, UKIP 2 or 3.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
There are others.
4. Miliband + SNP + LD support (LD either in coalition or, more likely, not). 5. Cameron minority with LD initial abstentions on C&S matters (only possible if ICM is near the mark).
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I think the current SportingIndex figures point to none of them being possible... something like Lab + SNP = Con+ LD, both < 322.
UKIP is probably a buy and SNP a sell due to tail risk on both sides of each, though SNP probably looking good for 50ish, UKIP 2 or 3.
Honestly TC's represent IMO by far the most likely governments... anything else I think would struggle to displace a minority government.
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Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
BTW for less than brilliant campaigning can anyone beat Pete Wishart who wrote to the Courier this week complaining that people were planning to vote against him tactically in Perth and North Perthshire and how unfair this all was (thereby publicising the possibility)?
Might make some references to that letter on the doorstep this afternoon.
David, by far the biggest and most serious fly in the ointment remains our very serious trade deficit which is steadily impoverishing the country. It is also indicative of a series of underlying problems. It shows that rather than suffering the supposed horrors of austerity we in fact have excess demand in our economy that is sucking in imports we cannot afford. It shows we have major problems with competitiveness in that we cannot sell enough goods and services to pay for our consumption. This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment.
None of our politicians are talking about this because it is unremitting bad news. It means cutting the deficit and hence excess demand is more urgent than they want to admit. It means that all this supposed hardship has not brought our standard of living in line with our earnings. And it means sooner rather than later there will be a price to pay for all this government largesse that we enjoy so much.
Nick. Well done in writing that. However, since at least WW2 our Governments have chosen to spend more and more of the resources that the Govt has (or borrows) onto:- Out of work Welfare, Subsidising low wages, the NHS and other Public Services.
Fundamentally we need to much spend less on current public sector operations and more on genuine infrastructure.
Who would actually change these allocations with the national religion of the NHS? Not an Ed Miliband led Government as Ed scarcely understands the need for dividends for share owners! They are all nasty capitalists. Tony Blair's government had an opportunity, but blew the chance and blew the surplus cash. Maybe we just have to go down rapidly into the socialist chaos of Miliband for the country to be taken to the IMF brink again and the Conservatives to choose a Leader capable of tackling the problems you correctly identify.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
There are others.
4. Miliband + SNP + LD support (LD either in coalition or, more likely, not). 5. Cameron minority with LD initial abstentions on C&S matters (only possible if ICM is near the mark).
Honestly TC's represent IMO by far the most likely governments... anything else I think would struggle to displace a minority government.
I agree - I was just filling in the gaps.
The question of displacing a minority gvt is an interesting one given that the processes of dismissal and formation are independent. A minority gvt could easily be dismissed without there being a new one ready.
Judging by JackW's canny assessment this morning of a 67% GE Turnout, Coral's generous 11/8 (aka 2.375) odds on their 65% - 70% band appear to offer great value. Labrokes' corresponding odds for the same bet are a measly evens. DYOR
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
There are others.
4. Miliband + SNP + LD support (LD either in coalition or, more likely, not). 5. Cameron minority with LD initial abstentions on C&S matters (only possible if ICM is near the mark).
Honestly TC's represent IMO by far the most likely governments... anything else I think would struggle to displace a minority government.
I agree - I was just filling in the gaps.
The question of displacing a minority gvt is an interesting one given that the processes of dismissal and formation are independent. A minority gvt could easily be dismissed without there being a new one ready.
I recall that the LDs said they would not work with the SNP. Your option 5 is the same as my "liberal" interpretation of Cons + LDs which may not necessarily be a coalition. (Grandiose thanks)
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
@DavidL - "This is partly a consequence of our low productivity and partly a consequence of our poor educational attainment."
It is also a result of an anaemic British management class that prioritises short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy.
In terms of education, export-wise we do far, far worse than our major competitors in Europe and North America - almost all of whom have similar or worse levels of general educational attainment than us.
I've decided there is simply no point making these arguments with Tories. They are determined to believe all our problems lie with the little people who are lazy, entitled and without aspiration. The sad reality is that ordinary people have sacrificed a great deal over the last 30 years in terms of security at work and more lately even wages all in the name of making Britain a more dynamic economy. Sadly it hasn't happened because our major firms are not owned and run to be successful long term enterprises. Many corporate bosses might feel they have little choice given the cards they are dealt - which would be fine if they didn't insist on being the most extravagently remunerated executives in the world (per pound of turnover). But people just aren't angry enough. Instead plenty of people in boardrooms bemoan the 'anti-business' culture.
Amen to that. The L'Oreal culture that pervades UK business has been a huge drag on us all.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 14th April Projection) :
Con 302 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+3) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 40 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 14 Apr - No Change - First Showing Of "No Change" In Successive Projections
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Looks like Jack's ARSE is going down the pan for Team Cam...
A very odd reflection of current polling with 4 LDs and 2 SNP for every 5 Lab and every 5 Conservatives. For a national balanced audience the LDs should have been down to about 1.5 and the SNP to 0.5. Instead of Plaid's 1 to 5 ratio it should have been 1 out of the 200.
Better if audience reactions had been banned. UKIP were effectively stitched up by the BBC in the guidance they gave.
I notice all this PB chatter on who's going to win this or lose that. But truth to tell: you know nothing, Jon PB!
Are you still forecasting 80-100 UKIP MP's ?
Titter ....
I've never forecast 80-100 UKIP MP's. I said a couple of months back that some kippers were talking about 102 MP's. But my forecasts was always in the more modest 40± UKIP seats.
We may not get them, alas. In that case this country will continue in its downward spiral as it has since WW1, and even more so since WW2. That change is needed is apparent. It's also apparent that the Lab/Lib/Con parties will not give us that change. I know it's difficult for the general population give up what they are used to. It will take courage to vote UKIP in order to get change; a quality that this present generation has yet to show, yet we may hope.
I just got a Lab leaflet in the post addressed to me personally!
You are getting SO popular, Sunil.
I have noticed the same though I haven't delivered any myself.Lab GOTV is quite effective in this marginal seat held by the Tories.A lot of volunteers who absolutely hate the Tories.
The BoE currently "hands back" to the government the profit it makes on interest on government bonds. This is (in effect) actual money printing of the kind advocated by Dair.
You misunderstand me then.
I do not advocate printing money AT ALL.
I advocate Sending Cheques as better than the current QE.
But QE itself, the action was unnecessary and pointless. A small nation like the UK has virtually no control of its inflation rate nowadays all actions designed to try and control inflation in any direction do not work.
Totally ignorant and wrong.
Firstly the UK isn't a "small nation" - we are one of the largest economies and major currency in the world.
Secondly of course we have a massive control over our inflation rate, via the value of sterling. If the value of sterling crashes then imports become more expensive increasing inflation. If the value of sterling rises then imports become cheaper thus lowering inflation.
Unless you feel that we don't import (of course we do) or that our actions don't affect the value of sterling (of course they do) we have massive control over inflation.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
If the LD supports the Tories this time, it will become the Conservative's bitch for the foreseeable future.
OT for anyone who's missed Breaking Bad. It's on from the start on Spike TV via Freesat. Don't know about Freeview
I take it Spike TV is new? It just appeared on my Freeview without me even doing an update yesterday, overwriting BBC News HD and requiring a full update. Very annoying.
Jack's ARSE is looking way out of kilter at the moment:
My take on the fab thirteen...
Bury North - Lean Lab Pudsey - TCTC if pushed would go Con hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Likely Lab Watford - TCTC if pushed would go LD gain Croydon Central - Likely Lab Enfield North - Likely Lab Cornwall North - TCTC if pushed would go LD hold Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
For advertising Salmond's interview on the Today programme.
He was a fair amount of sweetness and a great deal of light about England and the English.
He explained patiently to Jim Naugthie why the vast majority of votes in the Commons concerned finance and therefore England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland. He gave the example of him voting against Balir's introduction tuition fees for English students in England because of the knock on consequences for University finance in Scotland and suggested that most English people would have wished that vote had been successful.
He rejected the notion that Scots MPs could be excluded from voting on income tax when the tax base is still controlled by the Cahanellor and said "up with that we shall not put"
That is to say he was quoting Churchill's reasonably famous remark about the English language - He does seem to know a tad more about English political figures than BBC journalists!
On doing some further research I find that the tuition fees vote in the Commons was 27th January 2004. BBC News reported at the time that
"Tony Blair has scraped home by just five votes in a crunch House of Commons test of his controversial plans to introduce university top-up fees.
The Higher Education Bill was backed by 316 votes to 311 after days of intense campaigning by ministers and rebels."
In other words the vote was carried against English wishes by the lumpin block Scottish Labour MPs like Jim Murphy. The SNP MPs led by Salmond voted with the majority of English MPs agisnt the Government. Gives a whole new slant to this question does it not?
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
If the LD supports the Tories this time, it will become the Conservative's bitch for the foreseeable future.
They will suffer whoever they support in a coalition. A c&s arrangement would be best for them. But we will probably have a LD party with 2/3 socialists in its MPs and activists and a voter base that is barely 10% socialist. A recipe for further problems.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
OT for anyone who's missed Breaking Bad. It's on from the start on Spike TV via Freesat. Don't know about Freeview
I take it Spike TV is new? It just appeared on my Freeview without me even doing an update yesterday, overwriting BBC News HD and requiring a full update. Very annoying.
OT for anyone who's missed Breaking Bad. It's on from the start on Spike TV via Freesat. Don't know about Freeview
I take it Spike TV is new? It just appeared on my Freeview without me even doing an update yesterday, overwriting BBC News HD and requiring a full update. Very annoying.
Yes it is on freeview.
I have watched the complete breaking bad, still believe the sopranos was superior.
If you wanted to live in a country with a trade surplus, you should have voted Yes.
There is little possibility of England returning to trade surplus, it lacks even basic resources for its population and the position is in a continued downward spiral. The same applies to Wales and Northern Ireland. The productivity rises required in any of these three countries are far beyond what you can reasonably expect.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
LOL, they have made London with Scottish money, otherwise it would still have been a dump. When we are able to spend our money on Scotland we will see a sea change. Only a Scottish Tory could come out with such biased guff.
Morning Malcolm. Now that the oil is largely gone what money would that be?
David, good morning. Plenty of money for Scotland to build a better country than we have forced on us by London. We can build a real economy as many other countries do, money is not everything though , despite Tories believing otherwise. We would be much better off as we would not be funding London's excesses and could get on with building a real economy rather than lining the pockets of the few and having the majority in low paid menial tasks. You do not have to look far to see how it can be done much better , but it involves the very rich not being greedy and pocketing it all , so not going to happen under either the blue or red Tory parties.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
Con maj needs a move of about 25 seats, Lab maj needs a move of over a hundred seats. Not unreasonable to view the two differently.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
Cheers.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
We should be getting the next Survation/DR for Scotland soon, which will hopefully give us some insight into whether the Lord A polls are evidencing a further SNP surge at a national level. My gut feeling is that SNP will be over 50% for both GE2015 and Holyrood 2016. The Tories will be around 15% and SLAB will be less than 25%. Unfortunately for SLAB I think there's a soft chunk of their support which may yet leak away.
William Hill have now cut the SLAB 0-5 seats odds to 6/4, which is down from 125/1 on 20th December !!
For advertising Salmond's interview on the Today programme.
He was a fair amount of sweetness and a great deal of light about England and the English.
He explained patiently to Jim Naugthie why the vast majority of votes in the Commons concerned finance and therefore England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland. He gave the example of him voting against Balir's introduction tuition fees for English students in England because of the knock on consequences for University finance in Scotland and suggested that most English people would have wished that vote had been successful.
He rejected the notion that Scots MPs could be excluded from voting on income tax when the tax base is still controlled by the Cahanellor and said "up with that we shall not put"
That is to say he was quoting Churchill's reasonably famous remark about the English language - He does seem to know a tad more about English political figures than BBC journalists!
On doing some further research I find that the tuition fees vote in the Commons was 27th January 2004. BBC News reported at the time that
"Tony Blair has scraped home by just five votes in a crunch House of Commons test of his controversial plans to introduce university top-up fees.
The Higher Education Bill was backed by 316 votes to 311 after days of intense campaigning by ministers and rebels."
In other words the vote was carried against English wishes by the lumpin block Scottish Labour MPs like Jim Murphy. The SNP MPs led by Salmond voted with the majority of English MPs agisnt the Government. Gives a whole new slant to this question does it not?
No it does not all MP` s in the UK parliament should be equal as now and in the future , if there is a United Kingdom
An English Parliament therefore should be a requirement, so every part of the UK, NI Scotland, & wales has its own assembly .
However Scotland should go now, to stop a repeat of the 1890s with the Irish Parliamentary Party, as we know what that led to eventually.
For advertising Salmond's interview on the Today programme.
He was a fair amount of sweetness and a great deal of light about England and the English.
He explained patiently to Jim Naugthie why the vast majority of votes in the Commons concerned finance and therefore England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland. He gave the example of him voting against Balir's introduction tuition fees for English students in England because of the knock on consequences for University finance in Scotland and suggested that most English people would have wished that vote had been successful.
He rejected the notion that Scots MPs could be excluded from voting on income tax when the tax base is still controlled by the Cahanellor and said "up with that we shall not put"
That is to say he was quoting Churchill's reasonably famous remark about the English language - He does seem to know a tad more about English political figures than BBC journalists!
On doing some further research I find that the tuition fees vote in the Commons was 27th January 2004. BBC News reported at the time that
"Tony Blair has scraped home by just five votes in a crunch House of Commons test of his controversial plans to introduce university top-up fees.
The Higher Education Bill was backed by 316 votes to 311 after days of intense campaigning by ministers and rebels."
In other words the vote was carried against English wishes by the lumpin block Scottish Labour MPs like Jim Murphy. The SNP MPs led by Salmond voted with the majority of English MPs agisnt the Government. Gives a whole new slant to this question does it not?
Will not matter a jot to Scott, he is too dumb and bitter to understand what you are saying.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
Con maj needs a move of about 25 seats, Lab maj needs a move of over a hundred seats. Not unreasonable to view the two differently.
The clear conclusion that has come through from this GE campaign is that Ed Miliband will not have a majority Government. The SNP have killed that off. If as seems likely SLAB are reduced to 6 or less, Ed Miliband will need 103+ net gains outside of Scotland, which is a very remote possibility. If the LDs are reduced to circa 25, then Miliband needs 78+ net gains to form that coalition, again something that looks to be remote. The other minor parties may reduce that to around a need for 70 gains but it looks a step too far. Therefore it really comes down to 3 outcomes:- 1. Miliband +SNP support 2. Cameron majority 3. Cameron + LD support.
I don't get this - I mean, on current polling I get why you rule out Lab maj but why is Con maj still in the list? On current polling, this is nowhere near. If the national picture moves a lot, which it probably won't, you could see Con maj or 103+ Lab gains.
Con maj needs a move of about 25 seats, Lab maj needs a move of over a hundred seats. Not unreasonable to view the two differently.
The polls are consistently pointing to a sizeable move in the opposite direction, so unless you think they're a complete pile of pants it would be a seriously unexpected turn of events.
"A lot of volunteers who absolutely hate the Tories."
Most people who are undecided don't hate anyone, and sometimes a young cock-sure canvasser who talks about baby-eating isn't very persuasive. Imagine tim going door-to-door insulting the don't knows.
But I agree about boots on the ground for delivering leaflets.
I'd be interested in what other canvassers think (as I don't do any).
The BoE currently "hands back" to the government the profit it makes on interest on government bonds. This is (in effect) actual money printing of the kind advocated by Dair.
You misunderstand me then.
I do not advocate printing money AT ALL.
I advocate Sending Cheques as better than the current QE.
But QE itself, the action was unnecessary and pointless. A small nation like the UK has virtually no control of its inflation rate nowadays all actions designed to try and control inflation in any direction do not work.
Totally ignorant and wrong.
Firstly the UK isn't a "small nation" - we are one of the largest economies and major currency in the world.
Secondly of course we have a massive control over our inflation rate, via the value of sterling. If the value of sterling crashes then imports become more expensive increasing inflation. If the value of sterling rises then imports become cheaper thus lowering inflation.
Unless you feel that we don't import (of course we do) or that our actions don't affect the value of sterling (of course they do) we have massive control over inflation.
You have no control over the value of Sterling.
It should also be pointed out, that at less than 1.5% of Reserves, the idea that Sterling is a "major currency" is some decades out of date. Like most of your ideas about the UK economy.
BTW for less than brilliant campaigning can anyone beat Pete Wishart who wrote to the Courier this week complaining that people were planning to vote against him tactically in Perth and North Perthshire and how unfair this all was (thereby publicising the possibility)?
Might make some references to that letter on the doorstep this afternoon.
Oh you people are hysterical. You cannot get a trade surplus by assertion any more than you can increase public spending that way. Scotland has huge structural issues with its trade which are only partly being demonstrated by the current increase in our unemployment when the rUK rate continues to fall.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
You're resorting to Gish Gashing but I'd hardly expect better from someone who claims to be a Tory while existing to suckle at the public teet.
Public teat? Not sure what you are talking about there. I do a small amount of legal aid work, mainly for cases that I care about or for people I think are being taken a loan of by an over mighty state. It costs me money.
Out of interest - as I can't find any myself - does the Faculty of Advocates publish information on what percentage of income Advocates get from publicly funded work?
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
Cheers.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
Well not paying advocates to resist actions for the disclosure of non existent legal advice on behalf of a lying First Minister would of course be a start.
The problem at the moment for the Lib Dems is that they are perceived by many as irrelevant having been seen to "prop up" the Tories. The danger for Labour is that, if they follow the austerity path, then they risk being viewed the same way I just wonder, if we end up having two elections this year and with a potentially huge electorate crying out for a progressive anti-austerity party the SNP would consider putting up candidates in the north of England.
Comments
I do not advocate printing money AT ALL.
I advocate Sending Cheques as better than the current QE.
But QE itself, the action was unnecessary and pointless. A small nation like the UK has virtually no control of its inflation rate nowadays all actions designed to try and control inflation in any direction do not work.
You cannot hurl vast powers at Scotland* and then still have MPs from there voting on English-only matters for which they cannot be held to account.
*cue SNPers suggesting Holyrood will get minimal powers. If this does occur, a second referendum will happen.
An English Parliament is an obvious solution. The left want to fiddle little fiefdoms for themselves and the Conservatives appear peculiarly worried about emasculating Westminster.
Movements in your ARSE are becoming less and less regular. I do hope for the Conservatives' sake that you are not constipated.
It's also too sensible a suggestion.
If our Scottish government stopped wasting all their time and effort on constitutional change and focussed on what our economy actually needs to give our children some prospect of earning close to the current generation there might be a chance of improvement. But there is absolutely no chance of that.
England has created in London in particular an international power house which exports incredible volumes of services around the world. They have achieved this by being open, entrepreneurial, attracting inward investment and international skills to a vibrant multicultural city that is one of the best places in the world to live. Go through that list and try to find one criteria for modern success that you would find in an independent Scotland. Just one would be a start.
How are his book sales going ?
WALES SEAT
Labour
26
Conservative
8
Liberal Democrat
3
Plaid Cymru
3
The primary goal of the SNP in this election campaign is to keep the SNP on the national agenda. Now the debates are over, it's back to Good Cop/Bad Cop so we'll see lots more "warnings" from Salmond followed by Nicola making trips to London and giving highly conciliatory speeches.
It's like the Tories blaming Nige.
In comparison with Farage Book which came out the day before, the latter is now in paperback and ranked at 2251.
Is there anyone on here who subscribes to the Times List with the numbers?
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/personal-manifesto-part-i-is-britain-viable/
That said, it's impossible to argue on the doorstep or in media-friendly soundbites.
.@UKIP says BBC 'exposed' over left-wing debate audience http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11546405/Ukip-says-BBC-exposed-over-left-wing-debate-audience.html …
I notice all this PB chatter on who's going to win this or lose that. But truth to tell: you know nothing, Jon PB!
I think there has been some improvement since the 80s in at least some of our industry but we simply do not take management nearly as seriously as, say, the Germans. We have an enormous tail of unproductive and underperforming business which gives us low productivity over all despite some areas of excellence.
I am not so sure that you are right about exports of education. We have a small elite in education which is some of the best in the world and very attractive to foreigners, not least because it is taught in English.
Where we fall down is that we tolerate completely unacceptable levels of failure for the majority of our population from a self referential and frankly deluded educational establishment which seems to think it is ok to have a child for 13 years and not be able to teach him or her how to read and count. Gove made many mistakes but he fundamentally got that. We will live to regret any retreat from his agenda.
Each represents a useful straw man, because they are both true to an extent - just not nearly enough. The sort of structural issues which create "short term returns over long term investment, fails to invest in R&D and is incapable of producing stuff others want to buy" (and more) are - in both cases under-represented. Because they are really hard to identify, quantify, relate to on the doorstep, and address. The result of not being able to talk about them is a need to talk about something else - and those on the left and right choose their own straw man to bounce off.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/04/16/the-murderers-of-kiev/
Nahh, we will wait to see how much of it is extractable first.
Take the NHS. We have a bidding war about who would spend more. This largely takes place in a vacuum without any discussion of what the country can actually afford or even what the country actually needs let alone what our priorities would be.
We have a tory party running away from the involvement of private enterprise because it polls so badly. Whether it might allow us to get more health for the same money is not even discussed. We have a Labour party saying that this is all the fault of a top down reorganisation which cost £3bn (ignoring the fact that over this Parliament this is approximately 0.5% of health spending and frankly irrelevant to outcomes as a result). Their solution? Reverse it all and repeal the Health and Social Care Act, presumably spending another £3bn.
We treat the electorate like infants and then complain because they behave in an infantile way without any consideration of cause and effect.
1. Miliband +SNP support
2. Cameron majority
3. Cameron + LD support.
Titter ....
4. Miliband + SNP + LD support (LD either in coalition or, more likely, not).
5. Cameron minority with LD initial abstentions on C&S matters (only possible if ICM is near the mark).
Which is your 2nd UKIP seat.
9:33AM
How are his book sales going?
Very well by all accounts. Top of the Sunday Times UK best sellers for three of the last four weeks!
1) The Dream Shall Never Die; 100 Days That Changed Scotland Forever.
Salmond,Alex
The inside story of the campaign that rocked the United Kingdom to its foundations, and the implications of the Scottish independence movement for the future of British politics.
Availability: 5 - 7 Days
Our price: £11.69
RRP: £12.99 (Save: £1.30)
Buy
2)The Road Beneath My Feet. Click to see more details.
The Road Beneath My Feet
Turner, Frank
Hardback
A searingly honest and brilliantly written account of Frank Turner's journey from the pub circuit to selling out Wembley Arena
Our price: £20.00
Ask
3) Reasons to Stay Alive. Click to see more details.
Reasons to Stay Alive
Haig, Matt
Hardback
This book tells the true story of how he came through crisis, triumphed over an illness that almost destroyed him and learned to live again. It is an exploration of how to live better, love better and feel more alive.
Availability: 5 - 7 Days
Our price: £9.49
RRP: £9.99 (Save: £0.50)
Buy
4) Landmarks. .
Landmarks
Macfarlane, Robert
Hardback
Presents a joyous meditation on words, landscape and the relationship between the two. This is a field guide to the literature of nature, and a glossary containing thousands of remarkable words used in England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales to describe land, nature and weather.
Availability: 5 - 7 Days
Our price: £16.00
RRP: £20.00 (Save: £4.00)
Buy
5) Tom Jones - The Life.
Paperback
From bestselling biographer Sean Smith comes the fascinating and tumultuous true story behind Sir Tom Jones, the nation's treasure, sage of The Voice and living music legend.
Availability: Pre-Publication
Our price: £7.59
RRP: £7.99 (Save: £0.40)u
Clacton and Thanet South are the UKIP brace in my ARSE.
Might make some references to that letter on the doorstep this afternoon.
Out of work Welfare, Subsidising low wages, the NHS and other Public Services.
Fundamentally we need to much spend less on current public sector operations and more on genuine infrastructure.
Who would actually change these allocations with the national religion of the NHS? Not an Ed Miliband led Government as Ed scarcely understands the need for dividends for share owners! They are all nasty capitalists. Tony Blair's government had an opportunity, but blew the chance and blew the surplus cash. Maybe we just have to go down rapidly into the socialist chaos of Miliband for the country to be taken to the IMF brink again and the Conservatives to choose a Leader capable of tackling the problems you correctly identify.
The question of displacing a minority gvt is an interesting one given that the processes of dismissal and formation are independent. A minority gvt could easily be dismissed without there being a new one ready.
Judging by JackW's canny assessment this morning of a 67% GE Turnout, Coral's generous 11/8 (aka 2.375) odds on their 65% - 70% band appear to offer great value.
Labrokes' corresponding odds for the same bet are a measly evens.
DYOR
(Grandiose thanks)
http://www.slab.org.uk/common/documents/Advocate_earnings_alpha_2012-2013.pdf
In addition to that advocates are of course employed by the State as standing juniors, Advocates Depute and to represent the State in various ways. I don't think that is published. I personally don't do any of that.
NB The Sporting Index spread is 46.5-48.5...
Better if audience reactions had been banned. UKIP were effectively stitched up by the BBC in the guidance they gave.
We may not get them, alas. In that case this country will continue in its downward spiral as it has since WW1, and even more so since WW2. That change is needed is apparent. It's also apparent that the Lab/Lib/Con parties will not give us that change. I know it's difficult for the general population give up what they are used to. It will take courage to vote UKIP in order to get change; a quality that this present generation has yet to show, yet we may hope.
Firstly the UK isn't a "small nation" - we are one of the largest economies and major currency in the world.
Secondly of course we have a massive control over our inflation rate, via the value of sterling. If the value of sterling crashes then imports become more expensive increasing inflation. If the value of sterling rises then imports become cheaper thus lowering inflation.
Unless you feel that we don't import (of course we do) or that our actions don't affect the value of sterling (of course they do) we have massive control over inflation.
Pick 11, no more than 3 from any single political party (Greens = one party but e.g. Alliance separate). Pick a captain whose score is doubled.
Universal:
Best PM (pick 1):
+1 holds/gains seat
-2 loses seat
+1 wins most votes
+1 wins most seats
+3 forms government
Biggest majority (pick 4):
+1 holds/gains seat
-2 loses seat
+1 majority over 5,000
+1 majority over 10,000
+1 majority over 15,000
+1 gets over 50% of the vote
+1 gets over 68% of the vote
Gains (pick 4) [over any by-election, not 2010 result]:
+ 1 gets within 1,000 votes
+ 1 gets within 300 votes
+ 1 gains seat
+ 1 gets notional swing of 7%
+ 1 gets notional swing of 14%
+ 1 overturns majority of more than 10,000
Turnout (pick 2) [just to be different]
+1 holds/gains seat
-2 loses seat
+1 Turnout above national average
+1 Turnout move than 4% above national average
+1 Turnout more than 8% above national average
+ 1 Increase in turnout since 2010 of 3% or more
+ 1 Increase in turnout since 2010 of 6% or more
Still tweaking it.
Ferrari's 4.5 to top score. Tempting. But track position is critical, as it's (usually) hard to overtake around Bahrain. Hmm.
My take on the fab thirteen...
Bury North - Lean Lab
Pudsey - TCTC if pushed would go Con hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Likely Lab
Watford - TCTC if pushed would go LD gain
Croydon Central - Likely Lab
Enfield North - Likely Lab
Cornwall North - TCTC if pushed would go LD hold
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
For advertising Salmond's interview on the Today programme.
He was a fair amount of sweetness and a great deal of light about England and the English.
He explained patiently to Jim Naugthie why the vast majority of votes in the Commons concerned finance and therefore England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland. He gave the example of him voting against Balir's introduction tuition fees for English students in England because of the knock on consequences for University finance in Scotland and suggested that most English people would have wished that vote had been successful.
He rejected the notion that Scots MPs could be excluded from voting on income tax when the tax base is still controlled by the Cahanellor and said "up with that we shall not put"
That is to say he was quoting Churchill's reasonably famous remark about the English language - He does seem to know a tad more about English political figures than BBC journalists!
On doing some further research I find that the tuition fees vote in the Commons was 27th January 2004. BBC News reported at the time that
"Tony Blair has scraped home by just five votes in a crunch House of Commons test of his controversial plans to introduce university top-up fees.
The Higher Education Bill was backed by 316 votes to 311 after days of intense campaigning by ministers and rebels."
In other words the vote was carried against English wishes by the lumpin block Scottish Labour MPs like Jim Murphy. The SNP MPs led by Salmond voted with the majority of English MPs agisnt the Government. Gives a whole new slant to this question does it not?
I have watched the complete breaking bad, still believe the sopranos was superior.
JackW,
"Clacton and Thanet South are the UKIP brace in my ARSE"
Last time I was in Boston, I read an article in the local newspaper by the new Conservative candidate. It could have been written by Farage.
So whoever wins, it will be a Kipper.
Unless, the Conservative was being economical with the actualite.
I think we know where to start with the £7.6bn black hole.
William Hill have now cut the SLAB 0-5 seats odds to 6/4, which is down from 125/1 on 20th December !!
An English Parliament therefore should be a requirement, so every part of the UK, NI Scotland, & wales has its own assembly .
However Scotland should go now, to stop a repeat of the 1890s with the Irish Parliamentary Party, as we know what that led to eventually.
Need to eat for the next two weeks
Is Dagenham in play now ?
"A lot of volunteers who absolutely hate the Tories."
Most people who are undecided don't hate anyone, and sometimes a young cock-sure canvasser who talks about baby-eating isn't very persuasive. Imagine tim going door-to-door insulting the don't knows.
But I agree about boots on the ground for delivering leaflets.
I'd be interested in what other canvassers think (as I don't do any).
BRILLIANT: Thats Labour Fu*ked
Muslims urged to abstain from voting because democracy violates the right of Allah
http://bit.ly/1OSDiCw
If only it came true it might wake labour members/supporters and others up!
It should also be pointed out, that at less than 1.5% of Reserves, the idea that Sterling is a "major currency" is some decades out of date. Like most of your ideas about the UK economy.
https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/628/nowcast/
It's not.
The SNP are at almost 50% of the vote there.
Cameron is doomed, I tell you!