politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone
Comments
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If Ed doesn't get his majority, we're going to get them same.Pong said:
Isn't this stuff supposed to wait until 10pm on may 7th?MarqueeMark said:
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.taffys said:For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
If dave doesn't get his majority, it could turn very ugly, very fast.0 -
Correct.Sean_F said:
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.MarqueeMark said:
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.taffys said:For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.0 -
Yup, being consistently wrong is no problem for a pundit's career, as long as you keep saying things your readers want to believe. Dick Morris was wrong for decades.OblitusSumMe said:
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.Casino_Royale said:
Yup, another one on tactical voting: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/01/conservatives.election20011OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, here it is (2005): Hold your nose, vote Blair and Brown will be the victor.OblitusSumMe said:
Quite possibly in 2005 too. Even in 2001 I think it was something along the lines of "it will get better, I promise".Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html0 -
Why were Dave and Nick not invited? I've not been following the ins and outs of the debate debate.marke09 said:The party reaction to tonights debate
Labour - shows Ed is ready to govern
SNP - Nicola strong performance blew Labour away
UKIP - Man of the people tells it like it is
Green - The 3 woman on the panel most decisive with answers
Plaid - strong performance from the women
Conservatives - shows the chaos that will happen if we get a coalition of Labour and SNP
Lib Dems - we should have been there to show we can moderate the ideas of all the parties
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I like Dodgy Hodges. He's reliably EIC.OblitusSumMe said:
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.Casino_Royale said:
Yup, another one on tactical voting: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/01/conservatives.election20011OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, here it is (2005): Hold your nose, vote Blair and Brown will be the victor.OblitusSumMe said:
Quite possibly in 2005 too. Even in 2001 I think it was something along the lines of "it will get better, I promise".Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
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Trying to see the wood for the Trees - MORI:
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Sept13_PolMon_charts.pdf
Lab 37
Ed -36
Now
Lab 35
Ed -19
Given Scotland will be sending those numbers (Lad -ve, Ed -ve post Indyref), it looks like English Labour has come round to Ed somewhat and decided to vote Labour in spite of him.0 -
Ha!OblitusSumMe said:
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.Casino_Royale said:
Yup, another one on tactical voting: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/01/conservatives.election20011OblitusSumMe said:
Yes, here it is (2005): Hold your nose, vote Blair and Brown will be the victor.OblitusSumMe said:
Quite possibly in 2005 too. Even in 2001 I think it was something along the lines of "it will get better, I promise".Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html0 -
It will be the first time the voting public get to see what our next govt might/probably will look like (Lab/SNP), how they get on, the chemistry, etc.Charles said:
They could talk about their positive vision for the futureLuckyguy1983 said:
They will not make personal attacks, but what on earth would they say if they couldn't attack the Government's record?Charles said:
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebuteBarnesian said:
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!richardDodd said:Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they are clever (big if) they will have spent some time preparing an "agree to disagree let's be sensible about all this" kind of line.0 -
''Buy popcorrn shares is surely the smart trade.''
I don;t think even the most optimistic tory supporters on here are predicting a tory majority.
The one who stands out is AudreyAnne, and she is no longer posting0 -
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.Sean_F said:If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.0 -
In Rod we trust.0
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Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.0
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Sean_F said:
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.MarqueeMark said:
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.taffys said:For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
No. There's still 3 weeks for people to ditch Nigel's vanity project. We'll be pointing out the intellectual vacuum at the heart of UKIP on the stump every day for the next three weeks.Pong said:
Isn't this stuff supposed to wait until 10pm on may 7th?MarqueeMark said:
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.taffys said:For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
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So, to summarise the latest movements in the polling: clear as mud!TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
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A corker.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
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The hour the polls turned.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Part 93.0 -
He knows Dave is toast so can soften his stance and the problem will take care of itself. I don't think Farage is delusional enough to believe UKIP can be of any assistance to the Tories after the election with their 1 or 2 seats. He's probably considering the chances of some kind of pact in the future - and not wanting to burn any bridges by knifing a dead man in terms of politics.taffys said:For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Ironically the success of UKIP in increasing their share of the vote is going to ensure Farage doesn't get the one thing he has campaigned so hard for throughout his political career. Deep down that must hurt, and will surely make election night very bittersweet for him.0 -
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models, with change from last month
2009-2010 repeat: -2.3% down
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.8% down
Fisher: 2.0% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 8.3% up
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Well, if Farage doesn't win a seat, he's out (supposedly).Lestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.0
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Not really, it's just that the last one was an outlier. This is extremely similar to the one beforeRichard_Nabavi said:
So, to summarise the latest movements in the polling: clear as mud!TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
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The best solution is to cancel the election until the pollsters sort their act out. Might take a few years, but it would be for the best.Pulpstar said:
The hour the polls turned.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Part 93.0 -
Lebo Norpoth "old" model that is right ?RodCrosby said:Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models, with change from last month
2009-2010 repeat: -2.3% down
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.8% down
Fisher: 2.0% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 8.3% up
Have you stuck your chips on yet
? 0 -
I set 'em up, you knock it out of the park :-)logical_song said:
... and who he was talking about? ;-)Floater said:Do we know who the senior guy at the mirror is who allegedly said "It’s f***ing terrifying to think that c*** might be running the country in three weeks’ time.”
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He'd bloody better go if he loses his seat !TheWatcher said:
Well, if Farage doesn't win a seat, he's out (supposedly).Lestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
Carswell's 'even-for-a-politician' huge ego won't allow him to go back but he can sit as an independent for as long as he wants, nobody will take Clacton off him - I'd vote for him as a good constituency MP despite not liking his permanent chippiness about the world not agreeing with his assessment of himself as the greatest political thinker of the 21st centuryLestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.Richard_Nabavi said:
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.Sean_F said:If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.0 -
We are all taking part in a tremendous exercise of random statistical noise. As someone with an unhealthy interest in both probability and politics it's fascinating.Anorak said:
The best solution is to cancel the election until the pollsters sort their act out. Might take a few years, but it would be for the best.Pulpstar said:
The hour the polls turned.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Part 93.
The polls are reassuringly bouncy.0 -
As an MP or MEP?Pulpstar said:
He'd bloody better go if he loses his seat !TheWatcher said:
Well, if Farage doesn't win a seat, he's out (supposedly).Lestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
@PopulusPolls: Meet The Defectors: 2010 voters changing their party in 2015. Our video explores who they are & what it means #GE2015 http://t.co/RNrylyHxCd0
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I adjusted it upwards on the basis the Tories and LDs will outperform current polling indications, and the others fare a little worse - I fear 276 might be pushing it a bit for the Tories if UKIP hold up and vast swathes of 2010 LD voters follow-through their intentions and actually vote red.Sean_F said:
That forecast doesn't seem to me to justify your pessimism. I'd say there's still everything to play for.Bob__Sykes said:Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276
Lab 289
Lib Dem 34
UKIP 2
Green 0
SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.0 -
Party leader.TheWatcher said:
As an MP or MEP?Pulpstar said:
He'd bloody better go if he loses his seat !TheWatcher said:
Well, if Farage doesn't win a seat, he's out (supposedly).Lestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.
That's what Hills are paying out on.0 -
Yep, old model. I've cashed out for a small profit. May get back in again.Pulpstar said:
Lebo Norpoth "old" model that is right ?RodCrosby said:Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models, with change from last month
2009-2010 repeat: -2.3% down
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.8% down
Fisher: 2.0% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 8.3% up
Have you stuck your chips on yet ?0 -
Actually no I won't. Labour have remained impressively disciplined and united, in public at least, despite having no policies worth speaking of and a deeply unimpressive leader. They (eventually) learnt their SDP lesson and learnt it well. It's regrettable that the the lesson has been forgotten on the centre-right.Sean_F said:
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.Richard_Nabavi said:
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.Sean_F said:If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.0 -
And how they don't want a referendum on Europe. Really.TheScreamingEagles said:If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.
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Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say0 -
Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.0
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I'll be editing PB during a theoretical Tory leadership election.CarlottaVance said:
And how they don't want a referendum on Europe. Really.TheScreamingEagles said:If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.
I'm going to have so much fun.0 -
I'm sure the fiscally responsible manifesto and the attacks on the Tories' unfunded pledges will help there.Danny565 said:Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
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Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually no I won't. Labour have remained impressively disciplined and united, in public at least, despite have no policies worth speaking of and a deeply unimpressive leader. They (eventually) learnt their SDP lesson and learnt it well. It's regrettable that the the lesson has been forgotten on the centre-right.Sean_F said:
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.Richard_Nabavi said:
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.Sean_F said:If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/588607099346624514
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Deary me Bob -Bob__Sykes said:
I adjusted it upwards on the basis the Tories and LDs will outperform current polling indications, and the others fare a little worse - I fear 276 might be pushing it a bit for the Tories if UKIP hold up and vast swathes of 2010 LD voters follow-through their intentions and actually vote red.Sean_F said:
That forecast doesn't seem to me to justify your pessimism. I'd say there's still everything to play for.Bob__Sykes said:Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276
Lab 289
Lib Dem 34
UKIP 2
Green 0
SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.
Dave will get more than 276.
Maybe not much more but at least 277 0 -
arf..Pulpstar said:
The hour the polls turned.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Part 93.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Looking forward to Guardian splash on new Panelbase poll...
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Buzzword bingo: 'Fracking' at 2/1 Betfair Sports is a goody, methinks0
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I'm not sure why that's something to be proud about. It should be concerning that the Labour leader doesn't have better figures in more traditional Labour areas.Tissue_Price said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say
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Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!
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As antifrank(?) said earlier, that polling is practically useless. It doesn't measure salience and it doesn't measure the likelihood of switching.BenM said:Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
The 28% approval for RTB is fine for the Tories - those 28% might contain 2% of switchers to them. The other 72% might contain 0.2% of switchers away from them.0 -
When the Labour manifesto was launched my immediate thought was "What on earth am I doing having any profit on a Labour win in Coatbridge".Tissue_Price said:
I'm sure the fiscally responsible manifesto and the attacks on the Tories' unfunded pledges will help there.Danny565 said:Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
So I moved it all back to the SNP 0 -
Milliband interview from the pool side.
"If you read Simon Hattenstone’s big interview with the Labour leader last month (and if not, why not?) you will know that Ed Miliband is something of a pool and snooker fan. And if you still don’t believe it, you should watch this clip posted by ITV’s Tom Bradby, from an interview to be broadcast this evening."
(Guardian blog)0 -
I like that idea.Luckyguy1983 said:Can I also offer some further advice for Nigel - I think he should sneak in a Labour Party 'Limited Immigration' mug and swap it for his drinking glass at the last minute. Even if the cameras don't pick it up I'm sure some papers will the next morning. He could drink out of it every time Ed goes for a 'racism' attack line.
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Yes, Ed is good at commissioning focus groups and then telling people what they say they want to hear.BenM said:Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
However, as I said, that is not a platform which any serious figure in Labour can regard with anything other than contempt. They hide it well (other than Ed Balls, of course, who to his great credit makes no attempt to hide it). I'm impressed by their discipline.0 -
So now panelbase has gone, which pollster has the biggest Labour lead ?0
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It's not really that sort of election. Labour need to squeeze the Green vote, they need to win the battle for 2010 Lib Dem voters and they have to stem the flow of voters lost to UKIP. Oh, and they have to try to regain some of the voters seduced by Cameron in 2010.Danny565 said:Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
When you find yourself in a four-front battle you have to fight on four fronts. If you focus on just one you will find the other three fronts collapsing and the enemy in your rear.0 -
Survation with 4.TGOHF said:So now panelbase has gone, which pollster has the biggest Labour lead ?
I think.0 -
Might. But most likely, might not.Tissue_Price said:
As antifrank(?) said earlier, that polling is practically useless. It doesn't measure salience and it doesn't measure the likelihood of switching.BenM said:Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
The 28% approval for RTB is fine for the Tories - those 28% might contain 2% of switchers to them. The other 72% might contain 0.2% of switchers away from them.0 -
Survation +4. Can't think why the Mirror picked them [no slur on Survation, their house effect was well known before the deal].TGOHF said:So now panelbase has gone, which pollster has the biggest Labour lead ?
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He will still be an MP next parliament, job done.Lestuh said:
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?TheWatcher said:
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.Pulpstar said:UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.0 -
I would suggest being anti-austerity would help them succeed on all those fronts since everyone but hardcore Tories thinks more cuts are unnecessary, but Labour seem allergic to that.OblitusSumMe said:
It's not really that sort of election. Labour need to squeeze the Green vote, they need to win the battle for 2010 Lib Dem voters and they have to stem the flow of voters lost to UKIP. Oh, and they have to try to regain some of the voters seduced by Cameron in 2010.Danny565 said:Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
When you find yourself in a four-front battle you have to fight on four fronts. If you focus on just one you will find the other three fronts collapsing and the enemy in your rear.0 -
One outlier reverts to mean.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Next, ICM.0 -
Indeed so Mr Nabavi, a deliberate ploy by the pollster to confound and discombobulate PB. ?Richard_Nabavi said:
So, to summarise the latest movements in the polling: clear as mud!TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
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We'll take votes where we can!PeterC said:Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!0 -
Thanks for confirming that. I knew I wasn't dreaming...Casino_Royale said:
Why? When Lebo presented to UK polling event that I attended back in February, he was forecasting 322 Conservative seats.RodCrosby said:For the final time... (^_-)
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3%
Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Has he lost confidence in his model?
I guess no-one wants to be too far from the actual result!
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Those don't seem to be terribly good figures for Ed in London.Cyclefree said:
I'm not sure why that's something to be proud about. It should be concerning that the Labour leader doesn't have better figures in more traditional Labour areas.Tissue_Price said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say0 -
Unlikely to be YG...BenM said:
One outlier reverts to mean.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Next, ICM.0 -
I suspect that the Labour/Green voteswap website will be like a swingers' party where the only people who turn up are single men.Tabman said:
We'll take votes where we can!PeterC said:Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!0 -
I think what will worry the Tories with the MORI poll, UKIP are down at 10% and they are still behind Labour. I don't think they can realistically hope that UKIP will poll much lower than 10%.
In other polls were it is neck and neck, UKIP are still polling 13-16%, and so the thinking would be if they got them down to 8-9% a good proportion of that extra 4-7% would go to the Blue team. This polls suggests this can't be relied upon, that perhaps a larger proportion of that Over 10% UKIP vote is actually Labour "protest" vote and the rest is still "f##k the lot of them, especially Cameron" brigade.0 -
Herding.RodCrosby said:
Thanks for confirming that. I knew I wasn't dreaming...Casino_Royale said:
Why? When Lebo presented to UK polling event that I attended back in February, he was forecasting 322 Conservative seats.RodCrosby said:For the final time... (^_-)
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3%
Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Has he lost confidence in his model?
I guess no-one wants to be too far from the actual result!
Dangerous times for unhedged OM backers I reckon.0 -
Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.0 -
43% is an unusually small combined share for Conservative and UKIP. Usually, when a poll puts UKIP on 10%, you can expect the Conservatives to be on 35-36%.FrancisUrquhart said:I think what will worry the Tories with the MORI poll, UKIP are down at 10% and they are still behind Labour. I don't think they can realistically hope that UKIP will poll much lower than 10%.
In other polls were it is neck and neck, UKIP are still polling 13-16%, and so the thinking would be if they got them down to 8-9% a good proportion of that extra 4-7% would go to the Blue team. This polls suggests this can't be relied upon, that perhaps a larger proportion of that Over 10% UKIP vote is actually Labour "protest" vote and the rest is still "f##k the lot of them, especially Cameron" brigade.0 -
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.0
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LOL - and the SNP will be like older men who think they've turned up at a knocking shop?antifrank said:
I suspect that the Labour/Green voteswap website will be like a swingers' party where the only people who turn up are single men.Tabman said:
We'll take votes where we can!PeterC said:Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!
0 -
What do UKIP want, strategically? [In the sense that the SNP strategically probably want Con Maj. or near Maj.]MikeL said:Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
(Assuming they themselves get between 1-5 MPs.)
Ed as PM may set them up well in the North, but they'll be blamed for making Ed PM as the right-wing press have warned about.
Dave as PM avoids the blame issue and leaves them well placed in the South if things go tits-up. The real question would then be how the EU referendum ultimately plays out.0 -
ICM's "mean" is higher for Con than all other pollsters (Con have lead every ICM so far this year) so that will be interesting actually.BenM said:
One outlier reverts to mean.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Next, ICM.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
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If they have any sense they'll be in Kirk elder mode and report it as a breach of electoral law.Tabman said:
LOL - and the SNP will be like older men who think they've turned up at a knocking shop?antifrank said:
I suspect that the Labour/Green voteswap website will be like a swingers' party where the only people who turn up are single men.Tabman said:
We'll take votes where we can!PeterC said:Tabman said:
I hope the Guardian didn't pay Pollyanna a fee for that; its a rehash of the same article she wrote in 2010.Pulpstar said:Polly Toynbee and Stephen Glover writing the same article here:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!
0 -
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
0 -
''Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.''
People don;t believe the polls as they currently stand. They have stopped listening. So, I think, have some politicians.0 -
It's going to be difficult. He has to say something outrageous to get the headlines - he'll immediately be set on by Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett. His normal response is to get a bit shouty and that's not going to look good.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
0 -
Perhaps something more current and more political?Tissue_Price said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-323299240 -
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
Do you know something we don't?0 -
So....if Ed sqeaks in with tartan support how long will it probably be before the next election?0
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Overall majority is on a death march to 1.01 - I have taken the view it isn't really tradeable any more so have just set up a comedy Labour Green and some cover on the Con Maj side for my book.MikeL said:Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
Backing Overall Majority may well be a winner but I'm not convinced it possesses much value.0 -
Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?0
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Is the picture 4th down going to be in Ward or Galloway's constituency literatureantifrank said:
Perhaps something more current and more political?Tissue_Price said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-32329924
? 0 -
Do we not think there's a chance UKIP are being understated by a "Shy Kipper Effect", then?0
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Across all ten companies that have polled over the past week, the latest score from each gives Conservative 34%, Labour 33.8%, UKIP 12.6% on average.
Conservative support ranges from 33% to 39%. Labour support ranges from 32% to 35%. UKIP support ranges from 7% to 16%.0 -
All the pollsters could be miles out from the actual result. Could be Lab 40, Con 30.SouthamObserver said:Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
We will know in 22 days.
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Not sure that will be hugely effective. EdM can agree it was a disgrace. Then what happens, bearing in mind that there are five speakers?Tissue_Price said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
What Farage has going for him is that tomorrow all the right wing newspapers will be on his side.
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ICM is fine.SouthamObserver said:Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
They do however have a small base sample size.
Which means larger MoE than say Populus.0 -
SO, since you asked so nicely, you might be interested in my views on Fallon's comments, which are earlier in this thread.SouthamObserver said:Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
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No! We won't know until the early hours of 7th May.SouthamObserver said:Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
If Con does actually win this election in terms of share of the vote, even if it's only by a 1-2% margin, then ICM will have performed better than all the other pollsters given they are the only one's to give Con's a consistent lead (even if the 6% was too high)
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January ICM was:GIN1138 said:
ICM's "mean" is higher for Con than all other pollsters (Con have lead every ICM so far this year) so that will be interesting actually.BenM said:
One outlier reverts to mean.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Next, ICM.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
Con 30%
Lab 33%
UKIP 11%
LD 11%
Green 9%
The changes since then to the latest ICM have been Con +9, UKIP -4, LD -3, Green -2, though obviously the headline changes reflect more complicated churn under the surface.0 -
39% is an outlier. But, ICM have put the Conservatives on 36% or above for three polls in a row, which does suggest it's a methodological difference.SouthamObserver said:Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
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Does anyone more informed about the Labour rulebook know if Harriet Harman's proposed rule that the leader/deputy had to be one man, one woman ever went through?
So, if both Ed and Hattie were to stand down after an election defeat, the replacements would have to be gender-balanced?0 -
Basil is miffed. Just stormed off with his goalposts, said he going looking for the swingback Lord Crosby and the PB Hodges promised him. He maybe some time.0
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Ah right, I knew Con had lead every poll since either Jan or Feb with ICM. Wasn't sure which month. Anyway, they have been more consistent with Con leads this year compared to all other pollsters...OblitusSumMe said:
January ICM was:GIN1138 said:
ICM's "mean" is higher for Con than all other pollsters (Con have lead every ICM so far this year) so that will be interesting actually.BenM said:
One outlier reverts to mean.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
Next, ICM.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
Con 30%
Lab 33%
UKIP 11%
LD 11%
Green 9%
The changes since then to the latest ICM have been Con +9, UKIP -4, LD -3, Green -2, though obviously the headline changes reflect more complicated churn under the surface.
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It gives Farage two points of traction:SouthamObserver said:
Not sure that will be hugely effective. EdM can agree it was a disgrace. Then what happens, bearing in mind that there are five speakers?Tissue_Price said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.antifrank said:Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
What Farage has going for him is that tomorrow all the right wing newspapers will be on his side.
- general lefty political correctness gone mad (Sturgeon/Bennett/Wood)
- specific Labour incompetence (EdM)
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Yes, the rule went through.Danny565 said:Does anyone more informed about the Labour rulebook know if Harriet Harman's proposed rule that the leader/deputy had to be one man, one woman ever went through?
So, if both Ed and Hattie were to stand down after an election defeat, the replacements would have to be gender-balanced?
No, they don't have to be gender balanced. Two wimmin is fine0
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