A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
''you will probably do better than a stockbroker's recommendation''
The Wall Street Journal used to use a monkey.
They delighted in the headline 'monkey beats stockpickers again...'
Perhaps the polling companies could sub-contract the monkey? Their accuracy might improve.
I've not proof of this, but I suspect the polls are no more volatile than for any other recent election (say since 2001). Trouble is CON and LAB are so close together it magnifies every change.
LAB 35 / CON 33 --> LAB 34 / CON 35 seems a lot more bouncy than LAB 41 / CON 31 --> LAB 40 / CON 33
We also have a huge number of polls, particularly when you compare to the sites first general election in 2005. This means you would expect that the most extreme statistical outliers would be more extreme and the 2-sigma outliers will occur more frequently.
"This statement is also necessary in order for it to be made clear what the role of the CPS is in making this decision – including in particular to emphasise that the CPS is in no sense deciding or implying that the allegations that have been made are established or that Lord Janner is guilty of any offence. "
But they are implying exactly that.
"The CPS assessment of any case is thus not in any sense a finding of, or implication of, any guilt or criminal conduct. It is not a finding of fact, which can only be made by a court, but rather an assessment of what it might be possible to prove to a court"
Yes, sure, I can read. And that reads like exactly what it is: a formal disclaimer which no-one will take any notice of.
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
Is it me or are there no issues today to talk about? The debate, fair enough; the polls, but of course. There's Janner & David Nicholson (for COMPLETELY UNRELATED reasons), but policy-wise has it gone quiet?
What's next (apart from who won the debate) to motivate people to take an interest?
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I cannot argue that, but I still cannot rid myself of the feeling that this election is very different from the usual UK GEs. Nobody is talking about it for starters. For other elections that I recall, people were generally motivated enough to talk about the election in the weeks running up to it but, to me, it almost feels like there is no election happening.
Someone pointed out today that the parties used to hold morning press conferences every day, which are missing this time round
The last genuinely exciting election was 1992. All the rest have been dull - either because the result was obvious (1997, for instance) or the options ghastly (2005). 2010 was a bit more exciting, I suppose.
This one will be odd because a few hundred votes in a few constituencies could mean the difference between a Lab/SNP coalition and a Tory-dominated one. If for no other reason other than excitement it would be nice if the polls were wrong and we had a 1992 re-run. Otherwise we'll all vote on May 7 and not know the government for days.
Watching the cricket from the West Indies it's abundantly clear over the past few days that some of the cameramen have a liking for ladies in the crowd of a not too unpleasing disposition in the slim line bikini department.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
I think we need to take that comment by Nick with quite a few pinches of salt! I'm quite certain that the Conservatives have plenty of resources to cover all the marginals (and indeed some very long-shots like NE Derbyshire which we were discussing a few days ago).
The DPP had to say something. I'm not sure what else it could have said in the circumstances. It couldn't just have hid behind the health ground, because everyone would deduce that the case must have been assessed as fairly decent, because otherwise the DPP would have said that there was insufficient evidence to proceed.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
I assume, and I assume that you assume, that Anna looks in here a couple of times a day to see what you are up to. I therefore take it that this post is an act of psychological warfare.
I cannot argue that, but I still cannot rid myself of the feeling that this election is very different from the usual UK GEs. Nobody is talking about it for starters. For other elections that I recall, people were generally motivated enough to talk about the election in the weeks running up to it but, to me, it almost feels like there is no election happening.
Someone pointed out today that the parties used to hold morning press conferences every day, which are missing this time round
True. I would guess that twitter has a lot to do with that.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
Broxtowe Conservatives are clearly going for a less is more strategy, somewhat similar to Labour economic policy - Less money for the taxpayer is more money for Ed Balls to squander.
Your local Tories also consider that bothering the electorate too often is rather vulgar and they should be left to spend more time with their recent Coalition tax cuts and manifesto reading.
I do wonder if the polls will be very wrong. I wonder how many of the "I am voting UKIP" people will actually do so and if they do not then they might put their votes elsewhere. At present, none of the polls instil me with any confidence that they are anything like correct. The variations in leads seem to be almost random in size and direction.
It reminds me of the old method on how to pick stocks and shares - stick the FTSE-100 list to the back of a door and throw 3 darts at it, buy whatever stocks the darts hit and you will probably do better than a stockbroker's reccommendation
I'm on the record as saying I don't think that Scottish Labour will get as panned as the polls currently show: that on the day, a small but significant percentage of people will put their mark where they have always done. However a time goes on, I'm slowly losing confidence in that belief.
I'm not saying that SLab will not get panned. They will. It's just the scale of it I'm unsure of.
I also wonder if the pollsters are going to get England VI very wrong, in either direction. There just seem too many variables this time around for them to factor out. Either Labour or Conservatives could do much better than the polls currently show. I can even see 40% being possible for one or the other. That is the extent to which I trust the polls currently.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
Broxtowe Conservatives are clearly going for a less is more strategy, somewhat similar to Labour economic policy - Less money for the taxpayer is more money for Ed Balls to squander.
Your local Tories also consider that bothering the electorate too often is rather vulgar and they should be left to spend more time with their recent Coalition tax cuts and manifesto reading.
Except it is UKIP policy to accept immigrants already here - just be more selective as to the ones that come in in the future. Most violence at UKIP (and BNP/ EDL) meetings/ marches come from the Labour UAF and HNH organisations.
It is far more likely that violence against immigrants would occur if UKIP policies were NOT implemented,
Re tonight's challengers debate I understand that it commences at 8.00 and continues to 9.30 at which point there is a 30 minute right of reply by the conservatives and lib-dems. Who will be doing the right of reply, who moderates it, and presumably the subsequent media narrative will include the right of reply to provide balance. In these circumstances I don't see any disadvantage by David Cameron not being there
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
Still don't like the way MORI ask satisfaction - for DC & NC it's on their govt. job, for EM & NF it's on their political role as leader of their party.
27% of Tories are satisfied with EM's performance in that role. The other 73% didn't think hard enough about the question...
So, same thing again with Greville Janner - the police were told not to prosecute him in the 90s. This seem to be a recurring theme, we've heard it for three or four examples now.
Are MPs given blanket immunity to child abuse laws or something?
The James Bond image of our intelligence services being manned by suave stylish types bedding sophisticated women seems like it couldn't be further from the truth. The Woodsman or 8mm seem more appropriate films.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
Broxtowe Conservatives are clearly going for a less is more strategy, somewhat similar to Labour economic policy - Less money for the taxpayer is more money for Ed Balls to squander.
Your local Tories also consider that bothering the electorate too often is rather vulgar and they should be left to spend more time with their recent Coalition tax cuts and manifesto reading.
Such fun if Soubry pulls it off.
You absolute bounder Sir !!
I'm sure Ms Soubry will not remove any or all or her clothing in an attempt to woo the good people of Broxtowe.
And Nick Palmer certainly shouldn't go commando in the constituency if he values his deposit !!
Never, ever ask a small child a direct question unless you are really, really sure of the answer.
Can work for teenagers too. Never quite forgotten the time I was teaching the 1968 anti-war protests in Chicago to a group of sixth formers (all girls, I was the only male in the room) and asked what the mostly very religious people at home would have thought seeing a lot of drug-addled teenagers having sex on their TV screens while tuning in to get the latest from the Democratic Convention. I got the immediate (and perfectly serious) reply, 'Sad, sir, because they weren't getting any themselves.'
I had a meeting this afternoon with a financial adviser (who used to be a professional cricketer) aged mid 30's.
Nice man mentioned politics so I asked him who he'd be voting for? "Probably UKIP but possibly Conservative"
I was surprised.
Why? I would not have said that 'being charming' and 'voting for a party not of the left' were mutually exclusive.
Indeed bearing in mind the rudeness and arrogance of many on the left (Polly Toynbee, Laura Powell, Ed Balls, Gordon Brown) anyone might be forgiven for thinking it was the other way around.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
I cannot believe that they have given up either because of being certain of either victory or defeat. Broxtowe will be too close to be unaffected by some national event. The oracle that is Jacks ARSE says TCTC!
I suspect just a change of tactics. Play to the whistle!
I also wonder if the pollsters are going to get England VI very wrong, in either direction. There just seem too many variables this time around for them to factor out. Either Labour or Conservatives could do much better than the polls currently show. I can even see 40% being possible for one or the other. That is the extent to which I trust the polls currently.
It can be easy to think that the number of votes in play in this election is much higher than usual because of the collapse of the Lib Dems, the rise of UKIP, the onward March of the SNP, and the Green surge. However, if one compares the vote retention figures for LibLabCon in the latest ICM with the ICM at about this time in the last election campaign (admittedly in the midst of the Cleggasm), then the numbers are (with last election in brackets) [and pre-Cleggasm in square brackets]:
Total number of respondents loyal to 2010 vote = 314 (332) [340]
Most people are still going to vote the same way they have always voted, and a lot of what look like dramatic changes will cancel out to have a small net effect, because this election currently lacks a lightning rod (despite the number of kites flown).
The Guardian will be increasing its cover price from Saturday, 18 April 2015.
The new cover price for the Guardian will be as follows:
Saturday (from Saturday 18 April):
UK: £2.70 (up 20p from £2.50) Eire: €2.90 (up £0.20 from €2.70) Channel Islands: £3.10 (up £0.20 from £2.90)
Monday to Friday (from Monday 20 April):
UK: £1.80 (up £0.20 from £1.60) Eire: €2.00 (up €0.20 from €1.80) Channel Islands: £2.20 (up £0.20 from £2.00)
Please note that The Observer will not be increasing its cover price.
Seems a lot. For that with addition of just 3p you can get an 18 pack of Asda own brand, which would last a lot longer.
(OK, now I should come clean - in another sense - and admit not only do I read the Guardian, but I got my current job through an advert on its website.)
So, same thing again with Greville Janner - the police were told not to prosecute him in the 90s. This seem to be a recurring theme, we've heard it for three or four examples now.
Are MPs given blanket immunity to child abuse laws or something?
The James Bond image of our intelligence services being manned by suave stylish types bedding sophisticated women seems like it couldn't be further from the truth. The Woodsman or 8mm seem more appropriate films.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
In my experience, your opponent is usually working harder than you realise.
I wouldn't argue you're not the favourite in this seat. I just think the Conservatives may be putting in more effort than you think.
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
He is innocent until proven guilty. Therefore he deserves the same protection as any other person innocent in law, no matter how much the Twitter mob are pursuing him. If no charges are to be brought, whatever the reason, then the CPS should make no comment on the evidence, which he has no opportunity to rebut.
In other words, the statement should read "The CPS has decided not to proceed with any charges against Lord Janner". End of statement. A footnote could direct the curious to a web page which details the tests which the CPS use when making such decisions.
BTW I see you are prejudging his guilt with 'evade justice' phrase. QED.
So, same thing again with Greville Janner - the police were told not to prosecute him in the 90s. This seem to be a recurring theme, we've heard it for three or four examples now.
Are MPs given blanket immunity to child abuse laws or something?
The James Bond image of our intelligence services being manned by suave stylish types bedding sophisticated women seems like it couldn't be further from the truth. The Woodsman or 8mm seem more appropriate films.
The Conservatives are “coming for the SNP and Labour” by focusing on voters who are repelled by Scotland’s “soggy, centre-Left consensus”, Ruth Davidson has said as she unveiled an election manifesto that promised to put taxpayers first.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
In my experience, your opponent is usually working harder than you realise.
I wouldn't argue you're not the favourite in this seat. I just think the Conservatives may be putting in more effort than you think.
I lost £200 on my very first political bet having not yet learnt that lesson.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
It sounds like it's all over, one way or the other. You should probably go and help out in Ashfield instead.
ydeoethur Yes, classic, I think the usual anecdote is never work with children or animals
Not as though I have a lot of choice in the matter...but Hunt does. He could ask to be made something more on his intellectual level, such as minister for sewers, so he does not get skewered like this.
The Guardian will be increasing its cover price from Saturday, 18 April 2015.
The new cover price for the Guardian will be as follows:
Saturday (from Saturday 18 April):
UK: £2.70 (up 20p from £2.50) Eire: €2.90 (up £0.20 from €2.70) Channel Islands: £3.10 (up £0.20 from £2.90)
Monday to Friday (from Monday 20 April):
UK: £1.80 (up £0.20 from £1.60) Eire: €2.00 (up €0.20 from €1.80) Channel Islands: £2.20 (up £0.20 from £2.00)
Please note that The Observer will not be increasing its cover price.
Seems a lot. For that with addition of just 3p you can get an 18 pack of Asda own brand, which would last a lot longer.
(OK, now I should come clean - in another sense - and admit not only do I read the Guardian, but I got my current job through an advert on its website.)
£1,80 for a daily paper which you can largely read online??
So, same thing again with Greville Janner - the police were told not to prosecute him in the 90s. This seem to be a recurring theme, we've heard it for three or four examples now.
Are MPs given blanket immunity to child abuse laws or something?
The James Bond image of our intelligence services being manned by suave stylish types bedding sophisticated women seems like it couldn't be further from the truth. The Woodsman or 8mm seem more appropriate films.
A constituent reports that she had a Broxtowe poll with named candidates about 10 days ago, from a "company with 4 letters, APNR or something". As we've not seen this in public, it was presumably a private Tory poll (I'm not doing one, and I can't imagine any other party is). Possibly coincidentally, the Tory effort here seems to be slackening off - they're doing one canvass a day (to our three), in groups of 3-5 people, and have no further leaflet distribution planned, according to what I'm told by insiders. Do they think they've won and don't need to bother, or think they've lost and need to move resources to less marginal seats?
In my experience, your opponent is usually working harder than you realise.
I wouldn't argue you're not the favourite in this seat. I just think the Conservatives may be putting in more effort than you think.
'according to what I'm told by insiders.'
They must be having some fun - "What shall we tell Palmer today?"
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
Your reference to him "evading justice" is assuming what would need to be proved - beyond reasonable doubt - at a trial. It is not him who has done anything to avoid a trial. It is the authorities who have failed in their duties. As there can now be no trial, he is an innocent man.
The CPS's failure is a mistake on lots of levels: for Lord Janner and his family because he has not had a chance to clear himself of appalling allegations, given that he mantained his innocence and for those who have made the allegations who have been denied the benefits of a competent justice system.
To my mind, having a well-funded and effective judicial system is at least as important as the NHS. Indeed, the justice system is an essential part of what the state should do - and do well. And yet it is on no-one's priority list. For the state to fail in defence, policing, justice, prisons is a huge, huge failing - and far far more important than some of the trivialities being talked about in this election.
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
He is innocent until proven guilty. Therefore he deserves the same protection as any other person innocent in law, no matter how much the Twitter mob are pursuing him. If no charges are to be brought, whatever the reason, then the CPS should make no comment on the evidence, which he has no opportunity to rebut.
In other words, the statement should read "The CPS has decided not to proceed with any charges against Lord Janner". End of statement. A footnote could direct the curious to a web page which details the tests which the CPS use when making such decisions.
BTW I see you are prejudging his guilt with 'evade justice' phrase. QED.
The Guardian will be increasing its cover price from Saturday, 18 April 2015.
The new cover price for the Guardian will be as follows:
Saturday (from Saturday 18 April):
UK: £2.70 (up 20p from £2.50) Eire: €2.90 (up £0.20 from €2.70) Channel Islands: £3.10 (up £0.20 from £2.90)
Monday to Friday (from Monday 20 April):
UK: £1.80 (up £0.20 from £1.60) Eire: €2.00 (up €0.20 from €1.80) Channel Islands: £2.20 (up £0.20 from £2.00)
Please note that The Observer will not be increasing its cover price.
Seems a lot. For that with addition of just 3p you can get an 18 pack of Asda own brand, which would last a lot longer.
(OK, now I should come clean - in another sense - and admit not only do I read the Guardian, but I got my current job through an advert on its website.)
£1,80 for a daily paper which you can largely read online??
No wonder they're going bust.
£1.80 for a paper which is not worth reading at all.
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
Your reference to him "evading justice" is assuming what would need to be proved - beyond reasonable doubt - at a trial. It is not him who has done anything to avoid a trial. It is the authorities who have failed in their duties. As there can now be no trial, he is an innocent man.
The CPS's failure is a mistake on lots of levels: for Lord Janner and his family because he has not had a chance to clear himself of appalling allegations, given that he mantained his innocence and for those who have made the allegations who have been denied the benefits of a competent justice system.
To my mind, having a well-funded and effective judicial system is at least as important as the NHS. Indeed, the justice system is an essential part of what the state should do - and do well. And yet it is on no-one's priority list. For the state to fail in defence, policing, justice, prisons is a huge, huge failing - and far far more important than some of the trivialities being talked about in this election.
I did enjoy some of the Ohio responses: "Each email someone gets from some arrogant Brit telling us why to NOT vote for George Bush is going to backfire, you stupid, yellow-toothed pansies ... I don't give a rat's ass if our election is going to have an effect on your worthless little life. I really don't. If you want to have a meaningful election in your crappy little island full of shitty food and yellow teeth, then maybe you should try not to sell your sovereignty out to Brussels and Berlin, dipshit. Oh, yeah - and brush your goddamned teeth, you filthy animals."
The Conservatives are “coming for the SNP and Labour” by focusing on voters who are repelled by Scotland’s “soggy, centre-Left consensus”, Ruth Davidson has said as she unveiled an election manifesto that promised to put taxpayers first.
I also wonder if the pollsters are going to get England VI very wrong, in either direction. There just seem too many variables this time around for them to factor out. Either Labour or Conservatives could do much better than the polls currently show. I can even see 40% being possible for one or the other. That is the extent to which I trust the polls currently.
It can be easy to think that the number of votes in play in this election is much higher than usual because of the collapse of the Lib Dems, the rise of UKIP, the onward March of the SNP, and the Green surge. However, if one compares the vote retention figures for LibLabCon in the latest ICM with the ICM at about this time in the last election campaign (admittedly in the midst of the Cleggasm), then the numbers are (with last election in brackets) [and pre-Cleggasm in square brackets]:
Total number of respondents loyal to 2010 vote = 314 (332) [340]
Most people are still going to vote the same way they have always voted, and a lot of what look like dramatic changes will cancel out to have a small net effect, because this election currently lacks a lightning rod (despite the number of kites flown).
All good points. But I still cannot help but feel that something's out of sorts with the VI. Although you're probably right, aside from perhaps the SNP factor.
The Guardian will be increasing its cover price from Saturday, 18 April 2015.
The new cover price for the Guardian will be as follows:
Saturday (from Saturday 18 April):
UK: £2.70 (up 20p from £2.50) Eire: €2.90 (up £0.20 from €2.70) Channel Islands: £3.10 (up £0.20 from £2.90)
Monday to Friday (from Monday 20 April):
UK: £1.80 (up £0.20 from £1.60) Eire: €2.00 (up €0.20 from €1.80) Channel Islands: £2.20 (up £0.20 from £2.00)
Please note that The Observer will not be increasing its cover price.
Seems a lot. For that with addition of just 3p you can get an 18 pack of Asda own brand, which would last a lot longer.
(OK, now I should come clean - in another sense - and admit not only do I read the Guardian, but I got my current job through an advert on its website.)
£1,80 for a daily paper which you can largely read online??
No wonder they're going bust.
£1.80 for a paper which is not worth reading at all.
I think it's one of the papers you can get free in Waitrose, the Observer certainly is.
I think people are paying sufficient attention to all aspects of the DPP's announcement. My sympathy for the subject of the announcement is extremely limited.
It has got nothing whatsoever to do with 'sympathy'. You have put your finger, unwittingly, on exactly what is wrong.
I dont think you've made a good case for why leaving doubt about whether the complaints were credible or not would be a better option than making it clear that there was a case to answer but that he's managed to evade justice for just long enough to be unfit to face trial when the authorities finally got their act together.
Your reference to him "evading justice" is assuming what would need to be proved - beyond reasonable doubt - at a trial. It is not him who has done anything to avoid a trial. It is the authorities who have failed in their duties. As there can now be no trial, he is an innocent man.
The CPS's failure is a mistake on lots of levels: for Lord Janner and his family because he has not had a chance to clear himself of appalling allegations, given that he mantained his innocence and for those who have made the allegations who have been denied the benefits of a competent justice system.
To my mind, having a well-funded and effective judicial system is at least as important as the NHS. Indeed, the justice system is an essential part of what the state should do - and do well. And yet it is on no-one's priority list. For the state to fail in defence, policing, justice, prisons is a huge, huge failing - and far far more important than some of the trivialities being talked about in this election.
I fully accept Greville Janner is innocent until proven guilty. What I would very much like to know is why he was not prosecuted 25 years ago given that there was a pretty damning allegation made against him which prima facie required full investigation by the police, so that this could be clearly established either way. That is something I hope there will be a formal enquiry to establish.
It is not him who has done anything to avoid a trial.
He actually seems to have played a very active role in avoiding prosecution for these alleged crimes over the years.
According to the CPS's own statement, they said that the reasons no trials were held on two previous occasions was because of their and the police's mistakes.
I've just done another online Yougov poll. Party support, certainty to vote, and a few other things including who do I think will win the "also-rans" debate (I voted for Nicola).
Certainty to vote is 9.99 but I put down 10. Who would I be embarrassed to vote for in the questions. I put down Tories, Green, Labour and Ukip for that last one but I shall vote Ukip - it's a safe Labour seat and Marie Rimmer will win easily, so it's a protest.
Shoot 10% of all politicians, bankers and media people. It won't do any good as we'll probably shoot the best 10%.
Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) April 16 WATCH: #MiniElection interview with @Nigel_Farage on South Thanet, @DouglasCarswell, tactical voting & HIV comments youtube.com/watch?v=jQMCdf…
It is not him who has done anything to avoid a trial.
He actually seems to have played a very active role in avoiding prosecution for these alleged crimes over the years.
According to the CPS's own statement, they said that the reasons no trials were held on two previous occasions was because of their and the police's mistakes.
I suspect that the answers he gave when interviewed also played a role.
I doubt CON are ahead of LAB in Scotland, but still if we take enough subsamples.......
We should be getting the next Survation/DR for Scotland in the next few days. My gut feeling is that SNP will be over 50% for both GE2015 and Holyrood 2016. The Tories will be around 15% and SLAB will be less than 25%. Unfortunately for SLAB I think there's a soft chunk of their support which may yet leak away.
I don't know whether you live in a marginal seat or not, Beverley, but for those who live in the 500+ seats which have little or no prospect of changing hands, there is not election worth the name! Perhaps it was ever thus, but the focus on the tiny minority of floating voters in marginal seats is becoming ever more intense, I find.
No, this seat is not marginal for the GE but it is for local elections where one or two seats changing hands will change the council control. The next constituency over is Cheadle and that one is very marginal
I also wonder if the pollsters are going to get England VI very wrong, in either direction. There just seem too many variables this time around for them to factor out. Either Labour or Conservatives could do much better than the polls currently show. I can even see 40% being possible for one or the other. That is the extent to which I trust the polls currently.
It has been so long since an election result was not clear cut that I think it all feels a bit strange. Even 2010 was clear that Labour were in real trouble. This time nobody seems to have a clue what is going on.
Someone pointed out today that the parties used to hold morning press conferences every day, which are missing this time round
I wonder why they have stopped that?
For myself, apathy plays a large part. I stopped listening to most of the politics shows years back. Question Time and Any Questions slid off my schedule and then Today was sacrificed. Nowadays I have the occasional dose of PM at 5 o'clock but that is it. I am fed up listening to bland charlatans. I suspect that many other people are fed up for the same reason.
Almost disappointed this didn't happen: "Consider this: stay out of American electoral politics. Unless you would like a company of US Navy Seals - Republican to a man - to descend upon the offices of the Guardian, bag the lot of you, and transport you to Guantanamo Bay, where you can share quarters with some lonely Taliban shepherd boys. United States"
Comments
Cognitive bias does the rest.
What's next (apart from who won the debate) to motivate people to take an interest?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beCYGm1vMJ0
This one will be odd because a few hundred votes in a few constituencies could mean the difference between a Lab/SNP coalition and a Tory-dominated one. If for no other reason other than excitement it would be nice if the polls were wrong and we had a 1992 re-run. Otherwise we'll all vote on May 7 and not know the government for days.
PB has some real movers and shakers.
Ahem.
Goes for cold shower ....
IF I was Nigel I'd be rehearsing my answer on that one.
@benrileysmith
Posted at 16:32
tweets:
Thirty voters walked out of Cameron's Leeds Q&A in total, hacks estimate. Approx 200 attended. Not great for 40min session.
I know his national poll goes by the name of ANP.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3041824/Primary-school-pupil-leaves-Labour-shadow-minister-gob-smacked-saying-supported-Ukip-foreigners-out.html
Scotland 123 unweighted -> 87 weighted -> 76 "total voting"
Con 19% / Lab 16%/ LD 4%/ Green 8% All VI
Con 20% / Lab 13%/ LD 4%/ Green 8% ((10/10 VI))
ZERO UKIP in Scotland (Which is actually good news for them)
Con ahead of Lab in Scotland just like with ICM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3041886/Blood-covered-woman-screams-rock-thrown-car-window-latest-victim-rioting-sparked-anti-immigrant-protests.html
Labour 1/3 with the bookies provides your answer.
Con retain 81% of 2010 vote
Lab retain 82% of 2010 vote
2010 LDs break Con 14, Lab 26 - ie Lab 12% advantage - 12% * 24 = 3
So just based on people who voted Con/Lab/LD in 2010 (and if past vote weighted), Con leads by 4 (ie 7-3=4).
Your local Tories also consider that bothering the electorate too often is rather vulgar and they should be left to spend more time with their recent Coalition tax cuts and manifesto reading.
I'm not saying that SLab will not get panned. They will. It's just the scale of it I'm unsure of.
I also wonder if the pollsters are going to get England VI very wrong, in either direction. There just seem too many variables this time around for them to factor out. Either Labour or Conservatives could do much better than the polls currently show. I can even see 40% being possible for one or the other. That is the extent to which I trust the polls currently.
It is far more likely that violence against immigrants would occur if UKIP policies were NOT implemented,
Reminds me of their hilarious attempts to sway the good people of Ohio
Kingswood 25 Index UKIP 0-0.5
I phone up, put on hold for 3 mins.. "0.5-1.5" they say
wtf?
doubled the spread, trebled the price, on a one way market!
Obviously I asked to sell £1m for a laugh.. they said £20!
Ask to speak to manager "not allowed to put you through"
Phone customer services "Theyre all in meetings"
Filth
27% of Tories are satisfied with EM's performance in that role. The other 73% didn't think hard enough about the question...
I'm sure Ms Soubry will not remove any or all or her clothing in an attempt to woo the good people of Broxtowe.
And Nick Palmer certainly shouldn't go commando in the constituency if he values his deposit !!
Never, ever ask a small child a direct question unless you are really, really sure of the answer.
Can work for teenagers too. Never quite forgotten the time I was teaching the 1968 anti-war protests in Chicago to a group of sixth formers (all girls, I was the only male in the room) and asked what the mostly very religious people at home would have thought seeing a lot of drug-addled teenagers having sex on their TV screens while tuning in to get the latest from the Democratic Convention. I got the immediate (and perfectly serious) reply, 'Sad, sir, because they weren't getting any themselves.'
Taught me a valuable lesson...
I had a meeting this afternoon with a financial adviser (who used to be a professional cricketer) aged mid 30's.
Nice man mentioned politics so I asked him who he'd be voting for? "Probably UKIP but possibly Conservative"
I was surprised.
207 Private sector workers
154 Public sector workers
42.6% of employees in public sector, when national figure is about 17-18%?
It makes me wonder why it is so easy to make contact by phone with this set of people.
The Southern England (excl. London) subsample implies massive swings to Lab from 2010.
Indeed bearing in mind the rudeness and arrogance of many on the left (Polly Toynbee, Laura Powell, Ed Balls, Gordon Brown) anyone might be forgiven for thinking it was the other way around.
I suspect just a change of tactics. Play to the whistle!
The new cover price for the Guardian will be as follows:
Saturday (from Saturday 18 April):
UK: £2.70 (up 20p from £2.50)
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Monday to Friday (from Monday 20 April):
UK: £1.80 (up £0.20 from £1.60)
Eire: €2.00 (up €0.20 from €1.80)
Channel Islands: £2.20 (up £0.20 from £2.00)
Please note that The Observer will not be increasing its cover price.
Con 70% (69%) [75%]
Lab 64% (50%) [56%]
LD 25% (66%) [54%]
Total number of respondents loyal to 2010 vote = 314 (332) [340]
Most people are still going to vote the same way they have always voted, and a lot of what look like dramatic changes will cancel out to have a small net effect, because this election currently lacks a lightning rod (despite the number of kites flown).
(OK, now I should come clean - in another sense - and admit not only do I read the Guardian, but I got my current job through an advert on its website.)
I wouldn't argue you're not the favourite in this seat. I just think the Conservatives may be putting in more effort than you think.
In other words, the statement should read "The CPS has decided not to proceed with any charges against Lord Janner". End of statement. A footnote could direct the curious to a web page which details the tests which the CPS use when making such decisions.
BTW I see you are prejudging his guilt with 'evade justice' phrase. QED.
The liberty is, it was obvious I was going to buy as you cant sell at 0, so why not be 0-1.5 in the first place?
You don't have to be a hypocritical coward to be a bookmaker.. but it helps
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/you-dont-have-to-be-hypocritical-coward.html
Another superb nugget of analysis, Chestnut.
Keep 'em coming!!!
I like Ruth. Very feisty; might give Dave a bit of backbone.
No wonder they're going bust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_of_Small_Businesses
'Q: What's more useful - a TV or a newspaper?
A: A newspaper. You can't wipe your ass with a TV.'
ydeothur Indeed
They must be having some fun - "What shall we tell Palmer today?"
The CPS's failure is a mistake on lots of levels: for Lord Janner and his family because he has not had a chance to clear himself of appalling allegations, given that he mantained his innocence and for those who have made the allegations who have been denied the benefits of a competent justice system.
To my mind, having a well-funded and effective judicial system is at least as important as the NHS. Indeed, the justice system is an essential part of what the state should do - and do well. And yet it is on no-one's priority list. For the state to fail in defence, policing, justice, prisons is a huge, huge failing - and far far more important than some of the trivialities being talked about in this election.
Have you read this?
Sir Clive condemns decision not to prosecute suspected serial sex offender
soggy centre-left? I thought the SNP were raving marxists taking the country to a commie-facist state.
Why would ANYONE on this website vote for a party that does that sort of thing to 'hard working families', 'squeezed middle class" or whatever.
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1991/dec/03/contempt-of-court#S6CV0200P0_19911203_HOC_423
I fully accept Greville Janner is innocent until proven guilty. What I would very much like to know is why he was not prosecuted 25 years ago given that there was a pretty damning allegation made against him which prima facie required full investigation by the police, so that this could be clearly established either way. That is something I hope there will be a formal enquiry to establish.
Certainty to vote is 9.99 but I put down 10. Who would I be embarrassed to vote for in the questions. I put down Tories, Green, Labour and Ukip for that last one but I shall vote Ukip - it's a safe Labour seat and Marie Rimmer will win easily, so it's a protest.
Shoot 10% of all politicians, bankers and media people. It won't do any good as we'll probably shoot the best 10%.
Peak err something.
April 16
WATCH: #MiniElection interview with @Nigel_Farage on South Thanet, @DouglasCarswell, tactical voting & HIV comments youtube.com/watch?v=jQMCdf…
"Even primary school children speak more sense than the Labour party's sharpest tools !"
It has been so long since an election result was not clear cut that I think it all feels a bit strange. Even 2010 was clear that Labour were in real trouble. This time nobody seems to have a clue what is going on.
I guess it is all rather exciting.
I wonder why they have stopped that?
For myself, apathy plays a large part. I stopped listening to most of the politics shows years back. Question Time and Any Questions slid off my schedule and then Today was sacrificed. Nowadays I have the occasional dose of PM at 5 o'clock but that is it. I am fed up listening to bland charlatans. I suspect that many other people are fed up for the same reason.
United States"