For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
Isn't this stuff supposed to wait until 10pm on may 7th?
If dave doesn't get his majority, it could turn very ugly, very fast.
If Ed doesn't get his majority, we're going to get them same.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.
Yup, being consistently wrong is no problem for a pundit's career, as long as you keep saying things your readers want to believe. Dick Morris was wrong for decades.
If dave doesn't get his majority, it could turn very ugly, very fast.
We had people threatening to pull the plug from their businesses and leave the country after a few good polls for Ed last week. Buy popcorrn shares is surely the smart trade.
The party reaction to tonights debate Labour - shows Ed is ready to govern SNP - Nicola strong performance blew Labour away UKIP - Man of the people tells it like it is Green - The 3 woman on the panel most decisive with answers Plaid - strong performance from the women Conservatives - shows the chaos that will happen if we get a coalition of Labour and SNP Lib Dems - we should have been there to show we can moderate the ideas of all the parties
Why were Dave and Nick not invited? I've not been following the ins and outs of the debate debate.
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.
Given Scotland will be sending those numbers (Lad -ve, Ed -ve post Indyref), it looks like English Labour has come round to Ed somewhat and decided to vote Labour in spite of him.
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
They will not make personal attacks, but what on earth would they say if they couldn't attack the Government's record?
They could talk about their positive vision for the future
It will be the first time the voting public get to see what our next govt might/probably will look like (Lab/SNP), how they get on, the chemistry, etc.
If they are clever (big if) they will have spent some time preparing an "agree to disagree let's be sensible about all this" kind of line.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
Isn't this stuff supposed to wait until 10pm on may 7th?
No. There's still 3 weeks for people to ditch Nigel's vanity project. We'll be pointing out the intellectual vacuum at the heart of UKIP on the stump every day for the next three weeks.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
He knows Dave is toast so can soften his stance and the problem will take care of itself. I don't think Farage is delusional enough to believe UKIP can be of any assistance to the Tories after the election with their 1 or 2 seats. He's probably considering the chances of some kind of pact in the future - and not wanting to burn any bridges by knifing a dead man in terms of politics.
Ironically the success of UKIP in increasing their share of the vote is going to ensure Farage doesn't get the one thing he has campaigned so hard for throughout his political career. Deep down that must hurt, and will surely make election night very bittersweet for him.
If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.
Do we know who the senior guy at the mirror is who allegedly said "It’s f***ing terrifying to think that c*** might be running the country in three weeks’ time.”
UKIP should have made more use of Carswell this campaign.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
It looks as if Carswell is keeping his head down, and playing a waiting game.
Waiting to jump ship back to the Tories, or waiting to oust Farage?
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.
Carswell's 'even-for-a-politician' huge ego won't allow him to go back but he can sit as an independent for as long as he wants, nobody will take Clacton off him - I'd vote for him as a good constituency MP despite not liking his permanent chippiness about the world not agreeing with his assessment of himself as the greatest political thinker of the 21st century
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.
@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
The hour the polls turned.
Part 93.
The best solution is to cancel the election until the pollsters sort their act out. Might take a few years, but it would be for the best.
We are all taking part in a tremendous exercise of random statistical noise. As someone with an unhealthy interest in both probability and politics it's fascinating.
@PopulusPolls: Meet The Defectors: 2010 voters changing their party in 2015. Our video explores who they are & what it means #GE2015 http://t.co/RNrylyHxCd
Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276 Lab 289 Lib Dem 34 UKIP 2 Green 0 SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.
That forecast doesn't seem to me to justify your pessimism. I'd say there's still everything to play for.
I adjusted it upwards on the basis the Tories and LDs will outperform current polling indications, and the others fare a little worse - I fear 276 might be pushing it a bit for the Tories if UKIP hold up and vast swathes of 2010 LD voters follow-through their intentions and actually vote red.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.
Actually no I won't. Labour have remained impressively disciplined and united, in public at least, despite having no policies worth speaking of and a deeply unimpressive leader. They (eventually) learnt their SDP lesson and learnt it well. It's regrettable that the the lesson has been forgotten on the centre-right.
If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.
And how they don't want a referendum on Europe. Really.
If Dave loses power next month, the thing I'm going to enjoy most is reminding those Con to UKIP defectors who said that an Ed Premiership would be indistinguishable from Dave's premiership.
And how they don't want a referendum on Europe. Really.
I'll be editing PB during a theoretical Tory leadership election.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
You can't ignore the contribution of those who have split from the Conservative Party, tried to take votes predomninantly from it, and gleefully joined in with Labour's class-based attacks.
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
But, if Labour lose this election, and start blaming their defeat on the SNP and the Green Party taking their votes, I'm sure you'll laugh at them.
Actually no I won't. Labour have remained impressively disciplined and united, in public at least, despite have no policies worth speaking of and a deeply unimpressive leader. They (eventually) learnt their SDP lesson and learnt it well. It's regrettable that the the lesson has been forgotten on the centre-right.
Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276 Lab 289 Lib Dem 34 UKIP 2 Green 0 SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.
That forecast doesn't seem to me to justify your pessimism. I'd say there's still everything to play for.
I adjusted it upwards on the basis the Tories and LDs will outperform current polling indications, and the others fare a little worse - I fear 276 might be pushing it a bit for the Tories if UKIP hold up and vast swathes of 2010 LD voters follow-through their intentions and actually vote red.
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say
I'm not sure why that's something to be proud about. It should be concerning that the Labour leader doesn't have better figures in more traditional Labour areas.
Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
As antifrank(?) said earlier, that polling is practically useless. It doesn't measure salience and it doesn't measure the likelihood of switching.
The 28% approval for RTB is fine for the Tories - those 28% might contain 2% of switchers to them. The other 72% might contain 0.2% of switchers away from them.
"If you read Simon Hattenstone’s big interview with the Labour leader last month (and if not, why not?) you will know that Ed Miliband is something of a pool and snooker fan. And if you still don’t believe it, you should watch this clip posted by ITV’s Tom Bradby, from an interview to be broadcast this evening." (Guardian blog)
Can I also offer some further advice for Nigel - I think he should sneak in a Labour Party 'Limited Immigration' mug and swap it for his drinking glass at the last minute. Even if the cameras don't pick it up I'm sure some papers will the next morning. He could drink out of it every time Ed goes for a 'racism' attack line.
Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
Yes, Ed is good at commissioning focus groups and then telling people what they say they want to hear.
However, as I said, that is not a platform which any serious figure in Labour can regard with anything other than contempt. They hide it well (other than Ed Balls, of course, who to his great credit makes no attempt to hide it). I'm impressed by their discipline.
Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
It's not really that sort of election. Labour need to squeeze the Green vote, they need to win the battle for 2010 Lib Dem voters and they have to stem the flow of voters lost to UKIP. Oh, and they have to try to regain some of the voters seduced by Cameron in 2010.
When you find yourself in a four-front battle you have to fight on four fronts. If you focus on just one you will find the other three fronts collapsing and the enemy in your rear.
Labour no policies worth speaking of? Seems the dire Tory offering is held in much less regard:
As antifrank(?) said earlier, that polling is practically useless. It doesn't measure salience and it doesn't measure the likelihood of switching.
The 28% approval for RTB is fine for the Tories - those 28% might contain 2% of switchers to them. The other 72% might contain 0.2% of switchers away from them.
Labour need to be focussing on squeezing that Green vote.
It's not really that sort of election. Labour need to squeeze the Green vote, they need to win the battle for 2010 Lib Dem voters and they have to stem the flow of voters lost to UKIP. Oh, and they have to try to regain some of the voters seduced by Cameron in 2010.
When you find yourself in a four-front battle you have to fight on four fronts. If you focus on just one you will find the other three fronts collapsing and the enemy in your rear.
I would suggest being anti-austerity would help them succeed on all those fronts since everyone but hardcore Tories thinks more cuts are unnecessary, but Labour seem allergic to that.
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say
I'm not sure why that's something to be proud about. It should be concerning that the Labour leader doesn't have better figures in more traditional Labour areas.
Those don't seem to be terribly good figures for Ed in London.
I think what will worry the Tories with the MORI poll, UKIP are down at 10% and they are still behind Labour. I don't think they can realistically hope that UKIP will poll much lower than 10%.
In other polls were it is neck and neck, UKIP are still polling 13-16%, and so the thinking would be if they got them down to 8-9% a good proportion of that extra 4-7% would go to the Blue team. This polls suggests this can't be relied upon, that perhaps a larger proportion of that Over 10% UKIP vote is actually Labour "protest" vote and the rest is still "f##k the lot of them, especially Cameron" brigade.
Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
I think what will worry the Tories with the MORI poll, UKIP are down at 10% and they are still behind Labour. I don't think they can realistically hope that UKIP will poll much lower than 10%.
In other polls were it is neck and neck, UKIP are still polling 13-16%, and so the thinking would be if they got them down to 8-9% a good proportion of that extra 4-7% would go to the Blue team. This polls suggests this can't be relied upon, that perhaps a larger proportion of that Over 10% UKIP vote is actually Labour "protest" vote and the rest is still "f##k the lot of them, especially Cameron" brigade.
43% is an unusually small combined share for Conservative and UKIP. Usually, when a poll puts UKIP on 10%, you can expect the Conservatives to be on 35-36%.
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
What do UKIP want, strategically? [In the sense that the SNP strategically probably want Con Maj. or near Maj.]
(Assuming they themselves get between 1-5 MPs.)
Ed as PM may set them up well in the North, but they'll be blamed for making Ed PM as the right-wing press have warned about.
Dave as PM avoids the blame issue and leaves them well placed in the South if things go tits-up. The real question would then be how the EU referendum ultimately plays out.
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
It's going to be difficult. He has to say something outrageous to get the headlines - he'll immediately be set on by Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett. His normal response is to get a bit shouty and that's not going to look good.
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.
Perhaps something more current and more political?
Bit surprised Betfair hasn't moved as I would regard today as a bad polling day for Con.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
Overall majority is on a death march to 1.01 - I have taken the view it isn't really tradeable any more so have just set up a comedy Labour Green and some cover on the Con Maj side for my book.
Backing Overall Majority may well be a winner but I'm not convinced it possesses much value.
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.
Perhaps something more current and more political?
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.
Not sure that will be hugely effective. EdM can agree it was a disgrace. Then what happens, bearing in mind that there are five speakers?
What Farage has going for him is that tomorrow all the right wing newspapers will be on his side.
Can we now say for certain that either ICM knows something everybody else doesn't, or its methodology has gone wrong?
No! We won't know until the early hours of 7th May.
If Con does actually win this election in terms of share of the vote, even if it's only by a 1-2% margin, then ICM will have performed better than all the other pollsters given they are the only one's to give Con's a consistent lead (even if the 6% was too high)
@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
One outlier reverts to mean.
Next, ICM.
ICM's "mean" is higher for Con than all other pollsters (Con have lead every ICM so far this year) so that will be interesting actually.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
January ICM was: Con 30% Lab 33% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 9% The changes since then to the latest ICM have been Con +9, UKIP -4, LD -3, Green -2, though obviously the headline changes reflect more complicated churn under the surface.
Does anyone more informed about the Labour rulebook know if Harriet Harman's proposed rule that the leader/deputy had to be one man, one woman ever went through?
So, if both Ed and Hattie were to stand down after an election defeat, the replacements would have to be gender-balanced?
Basil is miffed. Just stormed off with his goalposts, said he going looking for the swingback Lord Crosby and the PB Hodges promised him. He maybe some time.
@PanelbaseMD: New (15/04-16/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (-3%), CON 33% (+2%), UKIP 16% (NC), LD 8% (NC), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
One outlier reverts to mean.
Next, ICM.
ICM's "mean" is higher for Con than all other pollsters (Con have lead every ICM so far this year) so that will be interesting actually.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
January ICM was: Con 30% Lab 33% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 9% The changes since then to the latest ICM have been Con +9, UKIP -4, LD -3, Green -2, though obviously the headline changes reflect more complicated churn under the surface.
Ah right, I knew Con had lead every poll since either Jan or Feb with ICM. Wasn't sure which month. Anyway, they have been more consistent with Con leads this year compared to all other pollsters...
Tonight is a big night for Nigel Farage. He's going to need to make an impact. What has he got planned as his HIV moment? He has four maiden aunts to shock, so I'm sure he'll try to make full use of that.
I wouldn't be surprised if he went on Rotherham.
Not sure that will be hugely effective. EdM can agree it was a disgrace. Then what happens, bearing in mind that there are five speakers?
What Farage has going for him is that tomorrow all the right wing newspapers will be on his side.
It gives Farage two points of traction:
- general lefty political correctness gone mad (Sturgeon/Bennett/Wood) - specific Labour incompetence (EdM)
Does anyone more informed about the Labour rulebook know if Harriet Harman's proposed rule that the leader/deputy had to be one man, one woman ever went through?
So, if both Ed and Hattie were to stand down after an election defeat, the replacements would have to be gender-balanced?
Yes, the rule went through.
No, they don't have to be gender balanced. Two wimmin is fine
Comments
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Sept13_PolMon_charts.pdf
Lab 37
Ed -36
Now
Lab 35
Ed -19
Given Scotland will be sending those numbers (Lad -ve, Ed -ve post Indyref), it looks like English Labour has come round to Ed somewhat and decided to vote Labour in spite of him.
If they are clever (big if) they will have spent some time preparing an "agree to disagree let's be sensible about all this" kind of line.
I don;t think even the most optimistic tory supporters on here are predicting a tory majority.
The one who stands out is AudreyAnne, and she is no longer posting
Entirely up to them, of course - it's a democracy, people can do what they like - but they shouldn't duck responsibility for the consequences of their actions.
He's looked an ever worsening fit within Ukip under Farage.
Part 93.
Ironically the success of UKIP in increasing their share of the vote is going to ensure Farage doesn't get the one thing he has campaigned so hard for throughout his political career. Deep down that must hurt, and will surely make election night very bittersweet for him.
2009-2010 repeat: -2.3% down
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.8% down
Fisher: 2.0% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 8.3% up
Have you stuck your chips on yet
The polls are reassuringly bouncy.
That's what Hills are paying out on.
Labour press man sends me latest YouGov figs for London: Cameron 34%; Miliband 32%. "Strongest Ed figures for any region," they proudly say
I'm going to have so much fun.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/588607099346624514
Dave will get more than 276.
Maybe not much more but at least 277
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Looking forward to Guardian splash on new Panelbase poll...
She's reproduced it many times, in fact. On slight modIfication: she sued to tell people to vite LibDem!!
The 28% approval for RTB is fine for the Tories - those 28% might contain 2% of switchers to them. The other 72% might contain 0.2% of switchers away from them.
So I moved it all back to the SNP
"If you read Simon Hattenstone’s big interview with the Labour leader last month (and if not, why not?) you will know that Ed Miliband is something of a pool and snooker fan. And if you still don’t believe it, you should watch this clip posted by ITV’s Tom Bradby, from an interview to be broadcast this evening."
(Guardian blog)
However, as I said, that is not a platform which any serious figure in Labour can regard with anything other than contempt. They hide it well (other than Ed Balls, of course, who to his great credit makes no attempt to hide it). I'm impressed by their discipline.
When you find yourself in a four-front battle you have to fight on four fronts. If you focus on just one you will find the other three fronts collapsing and the enemy in your rear.
I think.
Next, ICM.
I guess no-one wants to be too far from the actual result!
In other polls were it is neck and neck, UKIP are still polling 13-16%, and so the thinking would be if they got them down to 8-9% a good proportion of that extra 4-7% would go to the Blue team. This polls suggests this can't be relied upon, that perhaps a larger proportion of that Over 10% UKIP vote is actually Labour "protest" vote and the rest is still "f##k the lot of them, especially Cameron" brigade.
Dangerous times for unhedged OM backers I reckon.
MORI disappointing and Panelbase isn't a good poll either. Forget the Panelbase movements - last week's was obviously out of line. Two weeks ago Panelbase had Con and Lab tied. So Lab +1 with Panelbase is a solid poll for Lab.
The only hint of optimism for Con is UKIP on 10 with MORI - coming after UKIP on 7 with ICM. There does now seem to be a decent amount of evidence that UKIP is falling and anecdotal evidence on the BBC report re UKIP manifesto re UKIP not trying in large areas reinforces this. And that is all with 3 weeks still to go.
In 2010 the LDs lost about 3% in the final 24 hours. I think there is now a decent chance that UKIP could end up around 7% to 8% - and if that happens it should be favourable for Con compared to the current Con/Lab position in the polls.
(Assuming they themselves get between 1-5 MPs.)
Ed as PM may set them up well in the North, but they'll be blamed for making Ed PM as the right-wing press have warned about.
Dave as PM avoids the blame issue and leaves them well placed in the South if things go tits-up. The real question would then be how the EU referendum ultimately plays out.
Obviously Con will be down from the 6% lead this week but by how much will be a telling question...
People don;t believe the polls as they currently stand. They have stopped listening. So, I think, have some politicians.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-32329924
Do you know something we don't?
Backing Overall Majority may well be a winner but I'm not convinced it possesses much value.
Conservative support ranges from 33% to 39%. Labour support ranges from 32% to 35%. UKIP support ranges from 7% to 16%.
We will know in 22 days.
What Farage has going for him is that tomorrow all the right wing newspapers will be on his side.
They do however have a small base sample size.
Which means larger MoE than say Populus.
Far too many C2DE's in their sample (60%, as opposed to the usual 45%) in my view.
If Con does actually win this election in terms of share of the vote, even if it's only by a 1-2% margin, then ICM will have performed better than all the other pollsters given they are the only one's to give Con's a consistent lead (even if the 6% was too high)
Con 30%
Lab 33%
UKIP 11%
LD 11%
Green 9%
The changes since then to the latest ICM have been Con +9, UKIP -4, LD -3, Green -2, though obviously the headline changes reflect more complicated churn under the surface.
So, if both Ed and Hattie were to stand down after an election defeat, the replacements would have to be gender-balanced?
They just are not as popular as their supporters think.
- general lefty political correctness gone mad (Sturgeon/Bennett/Wood)
- specific Labour incompetence (EdM)
No, they don't have to be gender balanced. Two wimmin is fine