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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll
Via @politicalpics Is this what we should be expecting? pic.twitter.com/Ne7C1wTMbh
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Two more MORI polls until EICIPM?
Its far more likely that Ed and Wee 'Eck will cosy up together. One thing the last 5 years has done is purge the Lib Dems of their most left-leaning members. I suspect the majority would prefer opposition to another coalition unless we get near 40 MPs and the Tories are the largest party again.
Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.
It's all so complicated now !
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx
The biggest gain for the Tories in 1987 was that Kinnock survived to lose 1992 as well, so in effect their 1987 campaign won them two GEs.
Miliband is probably my favorite Labour leader since Kinnock. Both of them actually shrank in the job.
Presumably carried out mainly before Tory giveaway via Magic Money Tree?
A debate between two politicians is being held on the roof of the Empire State Building
One of the politicians has a well known fear of heights and refuses to debate
The other says he is scared of coming here and debating
Personal attack.
Situation B
A debate between two politicians is being held in a TV studio
One politician refuses to debate
The other lists his policy failures and says he is scared of coming here and debating
Not a personal attack
No it isn;t. Its just another poll.
All the polls have done so far this time around is remind me why we have elections.
One of Cameron or Miliband will be off.
Graham Brady probably sharpening the knife right about now...
I'm on my mobile, can someone have a look at the Scottish sub-sample and post it.
Thanks
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx
EICIPM - 2.08 Betfair
LAB most seats 2.84 Betfair
Look good to me even though I am already on at GT 2.5 and 3.2
SDLP-Con; PC-Con; SNP-Con; UUP-Labour; UKIP-Labour
They'll all start talking to each other after the Election and we'll get some sort of Gov't.
SNP/PC on 6% which seems higher than normal, I think.
Green (+2) - And this after truly awful TV outings by Natalie Bennett, and the wackiest manifesto seen in years? - the world's gone mad etc, etc!
Check Scottish polling IMMEDIATELY post Indy-Ref to see what I mean.
I think you may end up regretting it as indeed many left of centre voters did in 2010.
Bet on labour then mate. There's plenty of value.
I can vote Tory there, and know my vote is worth a pitcher of warm piss.
But in Sheffield Hallam my vote could determine who becomes PM after the election.
To quote Uncle Ben, with great power, comes great responsibility .
But there is also value on the Tories in the seat markets.
"To quote Uncle Ben, with great power, comes great responsibility . "
You are a lawyer, you can find a loophole I am sure.
Disagree. Farage has the capacity to really hurt ed with the WWC, in my opinion. Enough to make up the reported 7% in hull east??? LOL
Page 20.
Are they having a laugh?
"LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll"
blimey I thought, Labour must have had a big move..... damn and blast, my heart sank
Then the actual numbers below the heading weren't anywhere near as game-over as I feared.
Phew
Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.
It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.
No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.
Is that the page on 'definitely decided to vote?'
Lord Clegg?
Apathy party definitely winning the day there, turnout will be lower than Scotland at any rate.
I wonder why the Alliance aren't able to hoover up the "Religion be damned" vote there though ?
Should be ripe - surely ?!
But at least he's there.
"Is it the Roman Catholic God you don't believe in, or the Protestant God you don't believe in?"
Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months
It shows that 38% remain undecided....a slightly lower per centage that last time...is that particularly unexpected?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that all ARSE projections through to the SUPER ARSE projection on the eve of poll will now include a turnout projection.
Note - The last ARSE projection in the Scottish Independence Referendum was accurate to within under half a point and given over a month before polling day.
Alexander - No
Laws - Yes
Lamb - Yes
Davey - Maybe
I know plenty of people who are convinced, for the reasons stated above, that the Tories will get in with a majority, and that the polls must be wrong. As I say, I am skeptical - I think the poll weightings will turn out to be a little off - but only inasmuch as I think the Tories will scrape the gold medal for largest party. They really are failing to get back into power when the Labour Party are virtually holding open the door to Number 10 for them. Some reasons...
1. They lost the battle for hearts and minds. They were too quick after May 2010 to put into practice many of the ideological changes wanted by Conservative thinktanks, against a background of austerity. This made them look like they were in power for the sake of their friends. Robbing the poor to give to the rich, if you will.
2. The NHS. This was always going to be a killer issue for the Tories. They needed a few Nick Winterton types in charge to start to negate this issue.
3. Immigration. Not really their fault but they've continually blustered and floundered.
4. The ground war. They were already behind, but they've lost lots of activists to Ukip and the task is just too big for the remaining troops.
5. The air war. The national campaign has been fairly disappointing. It started quite assertively but by this stage you can hardly tell they're the party of government, what with all the jousting over promises. Cameron is clearly no Thatcher.
I haven't checked how everyone is settling, so it might not be a true arb, but there should be value regardless.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/challengers-debate/winner
If its permissible and a second election is as indecisive, I can see Le Grand Coalition coming to fruition.
Where did I claim that they were 'not political'? AFAICR I said directly the opposite. But that is not what you were trying to prove.
To recap: you provided a link to that report as a sign that the BBC did studies into their political bias, in the context of political parties. Which it does not. Agree? If you read the report that is fairly easy to see, from the terms of reference, yet alone the contents.
Feel free not to believe me re. Fallon. It happens to be the truth. I do have other rather pleasant things to occupy my time. ;-)
As for not criticising the Tories: are you serious? Just last night I bashed them (and to be fair, Labour) for having splash screens on their website - but note my first post was just about the Conservatives, as they were the first party's site I looked at (and that was because conservatives.com is easier to remember than labour.org.uk). I also congratulated the Lib Dems and Greens for having various disabled-access versions of their manifestos.
As for your final sentence: that's just a rather silly attempt at putting words into my mouth that I do not believe.
Challengers debate - not leaders.
And Dave/Nick get their own time later to make up.
ACTIVATE HMQ!
Pro Patria Ipsos MORI
The E&W score was 41, which if you adjust back to a normal Scottish part gives 38 methinks so very good, but not 39 good.
Alexander - No
Laws - Yes
Lamb - Yes
Davey - Yes
Cable - Yes
Webb - Yes
"Challengers debate - not leaders."
But however you cut it it makes Ed look brave and Dave look chicken. There's no other way for the public to read it.
Simple average INCLUDING Ipsos MORI = Lab now 0.1% ahead.
"On what date will the first VI opinion poll by published that indicates Labour support of 15% or less"
I'll get an early entry in - 12th Jan 2017
Plus this looks like a left-leaning sample which will help.
Everyone who seems to be satisfied with Miliband is voting for him, and some. Looks like the age old toxic Tory brand problem again.
In the case of Jack's ARSE, "trumpet" is more apt?
As for the comments on Syria (not sure if this is the same interview): Miliband behaved disgracefully at the time, and has recently compounded that by trying to take credit for something that did not happen. I can see why a defence secretary would be pi**ed off at that. Not that I expect many Labourites to agree ...
Linking the Syria comments with Putin is both right and wrong. It is right in the fact that Putin must have been pleased with the way things turned out, at least immediately, but wrong to make any further connection. (Note I have been unable to quickly find what Farron did say about it; only second-hand reports).
As for the comments on Trident: I'm biased on that as I believe, at least at the moment, that a four-ship system is the way forward. And if it did come to a Lab-SNP coalition, it is very likely to be something the SNP demand not to happen (or more realistically, killed by being kicked into the long grass for another five years). *If* (and it is a big conditional) it came to a Lab-SNP coalition, I think Miliband would have little problem with dropping Trident.
SO: happy now?
Conservative 278.5 - not sure this should be > 2-1 on unders.
Listing seats by odds reveals roughly Even money here. http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/
For shame Tabbers, for shame.
It's Ipsos MORI, not Ipsos-MORI or Ipsos-Mori or even Ipsos Mori.
Comres poll on SW where voters really have to think (and are well outside 'the Westminster bubble') shows - CON 44%, LAB 13%, LD 26%, UKIP 10%. (13 point Tory swing)
As UKPR say - 'Given these are all seats that the Liberal Democrats won in 2010 this is a huge turnaround'
UKPR also point out 'The results that ComRes got in their constituency question are actually extremely similar to the ones that Ashcroft got in his initial, national question.'
On Mori - is it strange that Labour go up 1 (and Greens go up 2 !!) but UKIP go down 3!
Do those movements make sense? Big movements for the minor parties.
Greens increase their vote share by a third and UKIP lose something like a quarter of their share?