On Mori - is it strange that Labour go up 1 (and Greens go up 2 !!) but UKIP go down 3!
This is what I was thinking! Even if we say 1% went from UKIP to LD and 1% from LD to green, 1% to Lab, that still leaves a net -2 UKIP and +1 green which still managed to leave Lab and Con net neutral. Definitely implies a significant net Con -> Lab flow (possibly via NV, rather than directly switching)
On Mori - is it strange that Labour go up 1 (and Greens go up 2 !!) but UKIP go down 3!
This is what I was thinking! Even if we say 1% went from UKIP to LD and 1% from LD to green, 1% to Lab, that still leaves a net -2 UKIP and +1 green which still managed to leave Lab and Con net neutral. Definitely implies a significant net Con -> Lab flow (possibly via NV, rather than directly switching)
It's all MoE stuff, I wouldn't read too much into it.
Yesterday I looked at the papers and the vast majority had front pages which were so anti Ed and Labour it was impossible for anyone other than the converted to read without laughing at the crass obviousness of them.
It's not easy to tell whether this has an effect on the undecided. The Tories certainly believe people are judged by their friends otherwise they wouldn't have expended so much energy linking Ed to Nicola Alex and any bogeyman union leader they could find.
It would certainly be ironic if it was Murdoch the Barclay Brothers and Dacre what won it for Ed!
Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.
Farron smiles
Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
Depends how many orange bookers survive
Clegg - Maybe Alexander - No Laws - Yes Lamb - Yes Davey - Maybe
Technically speaking, Cable and Webb are OBers, but most wouldn't categorise them as such.
Jack - I'm not that plugged in to what's happening on the ground, being a bit of an armchair general these days, but I'll take it that your ARSE is speaking the truth loudly
I'm profoundly disappointed to hear you're not pounding the streets of the Highlands in support of your yellow perilist of choice.
For shame Tabbers, for shame.
Were that Caithness were a bit closer to the land of the Dark Blue Scum
What I need is a well-appointed Highlands Pied a Terre to visit, with a well-stocked cellar (Left or Right Bank, I'm not fussy)
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
@Bond: Miliband is indeed an atrocious leader. But you have to ask what is it that the Tories are doing to lose to this man? Cameron's turned out to be a decent PM, the economy could be in worse shape, and he's had the LibDems in coalition to prevent it being a "nasty government" (and he's virtually killed them off in the process). And yet..!
I know plenty of people who are convinced, for the reasons stated above, that the Tories will get in with a majority, and that the polls must be wrong. As I say, I am skeptical - I think the poll weightings will turn out to be a little off - but only inasmuch as I think the Tories will scrape the gold medal for largest party. They really are failing to get back into power when the Labour Party are virtually holding open the door to Number 10 for them. Some reasons...
1. They lost the battle for hearts and minds. They were too quick after May 2010 to put into practice many of the ideological changes wanted by Conservative thinktanks, against a background of austerity. This made them look like they were in power for the sake of their friends. Robbing the poor to give to the rich, if you will.
2. The NHS. This was always going to be a killer issue for the Tories. They needed a few Nick Winterton types in charge to start to negate this issue.
3. Immigration. Not really their fault but they've continually blustered and floundered.
4. The ground war. They were already behind, but they've lost lots of activists to Ukip and the task is just too big for the remaining troops.
5. The air war. The national campaign has been fairly disappointing. It started quite assertively but by this stage you can hardly tell they're the party of government, what with all the jousting over promises. Cameron is clearly no Thatcher.
If they hadn't put in place their key reforms on welfare, education and health in 2010-2012 they probably would never have happened.
Where I do agree with you is that the Tories moved very urgently to action, without explaining what they're about or why that action was necessary.
People heard cut the deficit and the Big Society. They reluctantly understood the need for action on the former, and were totally confused by the latter. They preferred Cameron as PM to Brown.
Immigration has been a serious failing. The party management by Cameron has been dire. But most of all I think the modernisation project failed to address the problem the Tories had was being seen for the rich and wealthy, not male and pale.
A grassroots reform of the party to attract and recruit members as part of a centre-right mission to transform Britain in the interests of all would have been the trick. Cameron to be very clear day in and day out what he was about, and to hammer it home.
On the other hand ... Comres poll on SW where voters really have to think (and are well outside 'the Westminster bubble') shows - CON 44%, LAB 13%, LD 26%, UKIP 10%. (13 point Tory swing)
Older posters will remember the SW polls produced by Graham, who is sadly no longer with us (MHRIP).
@Bond: Miliband is indeed an atrocious leader. But you have to ask what is it that the Tories are doing to lose to this man? Cameron's turned out to be a decent PM, the economy could be in worse shape, and he's had the LibDems in coalition to prevent it being a "nasty government" (and he's virtually killed them off in the process). And yet..!
I know plenty of people who are convinced, for the reasons stated above, that the Tories will get in with a majority, and that the polls must be wrong. As I say, I am skeptical - I think the poll weightings will turn out to be a little off - but only inasmuch as I think the Tories will scrape the gold medal for largest party. They really are failing to get back into power when the Labour Party are virtually holding open the door to Number 10 for them. Some reasons...
1. They lost the battle for hearts and minds. They were too quick after May 2010 to put into practice many of the ideological changes wanted by Conservative thinktanks, against a background of austerity. This made them look like they were in power for the sake of their friends. Robbing the poor to give to the rich, if you will.
2. The NHS. This was always going to be a killer issue for the Tories. They needed a few Nick Winterton types in charge to start to negate this issue.
3. Immigration. Not really their fault but they've continually blustered and floundered.
4. The ground war. They were already behind, but they've lost lots of activists to Ukip and the task is just too big for the remaining troops.
5. The air war. The national campaign has been fairly disappointing. It started quite assertively but by this stage you can hardly tell they're the party of government, what with all the jousting over promises. Cameron is clearly no Thatcher.
If they hadn't put in place their key reforms on welfare, education and health in 2010-2012 they probably would never have happened.
Mr Lansley said he did not need legislative change to pursue the policies he wanted to, so the purpose of their NHS legislation remains unknown.
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
Link? The video I saw had the camera on the stage while the booing started, then the booing turned partially into applause and the camera turned to show that some black and Asian audience members were standing up and being clapped. It wasn't ever particularly clear who was doing the booing. It's possible there's a clearer video I haven't seen though.
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
Apologies, I should have said - sell labour on Spreadex @ 20
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
I'm surprised those UKIP candidates could find a free moment to attend the manifesto launch. Perhaps their time would have been better spent working in their prospective constituencies?
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
I'm surprised those UKIP candidates could find a free moment to attend the manifesto launch. Perhaps their time would have been better spent working in their prospective constituencies?
the right wing press has been against UKIP for a few weeks now. Problem is the UKIP vote hasn't really declined in this period so they appear to have changed tact from the 'UKIP are a gaffe prone liability' to a more pleading 'Oh come on, we agree with you guys but the Tories are in trouble and we're desperate for your vote'. (see today's Mail Online).
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
I'm surprised those UKIP candidates could find a free moment to attend the manifesto launch. Perhaps their time would have been better spent working in their prospective constituencies?
the right wing press has been against UKIP for a few weeks now. Problem is the UKIP vote hasn't really declined in this period so they appear to have changed tact from the 'UKIP are a gaffe prone liability' to a more pleading 'Oh come on, we agree with you guys but the Tories are in trouble and we're desperate for your vote'. (see today's Mail Online).
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Yes, the markets are more inconsistent with each than I can remember since I first started betting on politics.
The Lab Maj odds on Betfair are just completely bonkers. OK, Lab Maj is unlikely, but it's not once-in-two-centuries unlikely, which is what the odds suggest. And if it were, then the constituency-level odds should reflect it, which they don't.
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
Link? The video I saw had the camera on the stage while the booing started, then the booing turned partially into applause and the camera turned to show that some black and Asian audience members were standing up and being clapped. It wasn't ever particularly clear who was doing the booing. It's possible there's a clearer video I haven't seen though.
Sorry the Black and Asian canidates were standing up and waving at him not necessarily booing
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
Apologies, I should have said - sell labour on Spreadex @ 20
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Yes, the markets are more inconsistent with each than I can remember since I first started betting on politics.
The Lab Maj odds on Betfair are just completely bonkers. OK, Lab Maj is unlikely, but it's not once-in-two-centuries unlikely, which is what the odds suggest. And if it were, then the constituency-level odds should reflect it, which they don't.
UKIP outperforming on the day, the Scot's believing Murphy's bollocks and the yellow peril collapsing completely to Labour.
Barnesian..that would just point up the fact that they are really pathetic..there is not what one could even vaguely describe as a statesman among them..I cant wait to listen to the pitiful howling
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Yes, the markets are more inconsistent with each than I can remember since I first started betting on politics.
The Lab Maj odds on Betfair are just completely bonkers. OK, Lab Maj is unlikely, but it's not once-in-two-centuries unlikely, which is what the odds suggest. And if it were, then the constituency-level odds should reflect it, which they don't.
Counterintuitively, I blame the Ashcroft polling. Far too tempting to see a lead in a constituency poll and project that straight through to election day, whereas most people adjust national polling according to their expectation [or preference :-)].
@Bond: Miliband is indeed an atrocious leader. But you have to ask what is it that the Tories are doing to lose to this man? Cameron's turned out to be a decent PM, the economy could be in worse shape, and he's had the LibDems in coalition to prevent it being a "nasty government" (and he's virtually killed them off in the process). And yet..!
I know plenty of people who are convinced, for the reasons stated above, that the Tories will get in with a majority, and that the polls must be wrong. As I say, I am skeptical - I think the poll weightings will turn out to be a little off - but only inasmuch as I think the Tories will scrape the gold medal for largest party. They really are failing to get back into power when the Labour Party are virtually holding open the door to Number 10 for them. Some reasons...
1. They lost the battle for hearts and minds. They were too quick after May 2010 to put into practice many of the ideological changes wanted by Conservative thinktanks, against a background of austerity. This made them look like they were in power for the sake of their friends. Robbing the poor to give to the rich, if you will.
2. The NHS. This was always going to be a killer issue for the Tories. They needed a few Nick Winterton types in charge to start to negate this issue.
3. Immigration. Not really their fault but they've continually blustered and floundered.
4. The ground war. They were already behind, but they've lost lots of activists to Ukip and the task is just too big for the remaining troops.
5. The air war. The national campaign has been fairly disappointing. It started quite assertively but by this stage you can hardly tell they're the party of government, what with all the jousting over promises. Cameron is clearly no Thatcher.
If they hadn't put in place their key reforms on welfare, education and health in 2010-2012 they probably would never have happened.
Mr Lansley said he did not need legislative change to pursue the policies he wanted to, so the purpose of their NHS legislation remains unknown.
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
Apologies, I should have said - sell labour on Spreadex @ 20
Blimey, do they have a lot of ricks like that?
Can I have £50 with you at 13/8 UKIP Castle Point? Split the over round
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
Apologies, I should have said - sell labour on Spreadex @ 20
Blimey, do they have a lot of ricks like that?
Can I have £50 with you at 13/8 UKIP Castle Point? Split the over round
Nope, it's 8/11 - 11/8 best prices. I'll give you 7/5
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
While this seems like a great opportunity, if they all do this but one of them does no, then the other one looks like it has something positive to say and will almost certainly do better. I think this would also hold true for two.
If they're all relentlessly negative, then sure they all get to have a go, but who stands out? And they'll all lose the oportunity to say something different.
All five parties must understand this, so I think they'll be more likely to have a 5 minute hate, before they start trying to differentiate.
Counterintuitively, I blame the Ashcroft polling. Far too tempting to see a lead in a constituency poll and project that straight through to election day, whereas most people adjust national polling according to their expectation [or preference :-)].
You might well be right. Also Scotland is a disruptive factor which might be confusing people.
Anyway, whatever the reason, the key point is: profit from it!
Do we know who the senior guy at the mirror is who allegedly said "It’s f***ing terrifying to think that c*** might be running the country in three weeks’ time.”
I just don't get the betting markets. Either there is a shed-load of value on the tories winning constituencies in the 275-325 range, or the EICIPM/Lab minority/lab most seats bets are fantastic value.
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Or both.
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
Apologies, I should have said - sell labour on Spreadex @ 20
Blimey, do they have a lot of ricks like that?
They seem to take a slightly, erm, different view of the constituency markets than SPIN or ladbrokes. I tried to sell the Lib Dems in Stirling at 18.5 when the market first appeared - it would have been silly of me not to, after all. Sadly that trade got rejected and "Lib Dem" got relabelled "SNP" pretty quickly.
I've moved a few other prices - like UKIP in Waveney and Labour in DCT, both were buys @0.1-1 (reasonable for the 9/1 on the 2nd place bets).
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3% Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0% Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2% Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8% Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Why? When Lebo presented to UK polling event that I attended back in February, he was forecasting 322 Conservative seats.
Has he lost confidence in his model?
Probably. Swingback appears mortally wounded this time around, which - as I understand it - is the main reason for the high Tory seat count in the model.
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
I think not. I'm pretty sure Nigel's job is to destroy Ed Milliband -it's a direct appeal to his potential Labour switchers and will also reassure his potential Tory switchers they've backed the right man.
The party reaction to tonights debate Labour - shows Ed is ready to govern SNP - Nicola strong performance blew Labour away UKIP - Man of the people tells it like it is Green - The 3 woman on the panel most decisive with answers Plaid - strong performance from the women Conservatives - shows the chaos that will happen if we get a coalition of Labour and SNP Lib Dems - we should have been there to show we can moderate the ideas of all the parties
Can I also offer some further advice for Nigel - I think he should sneak in a Labour Party 'Limited Immigration' mug and swap it for his drinking glass at the last minute. Even if the cameras don't pick it up I'm sure some papers will the next morning. He could drink out of it every time Ed goes for a 'racism' attack line.
Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Do we know who the senior guy at the mirror is who allegedly said "It’s f***ing terrifying to think that c*** might be running the country in three weeks’ time.”
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
They will not make personal attacks, but what on earth would they say if they couldn't attack the Government's record?
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3% Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0% Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2% Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8% Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Why? When Lebo presented to UK polling event that I attended back in February, he was forecasting 322 Conservative seats.
Has he lost confidence in his model?
Probably. Swingback appears mortally wounded this time around, which - as I understand it - is the main reason for the high Tory seat count in the model.
The underlying assumption of the L&N model is that British politics is a two-party contest where over the long-term the fortunes of the two parties swing back and forth and in the short-term this is modified by the popularity of the incumbent Prime Minister.
When you have other opposition parties, who aren't affected by the pendulum effect of having to defend their recent record in government, then it wouldn't be surprising if it broke the model. So the success or otherwise of the model depends on how credible the other parties are in the eyes of the electorate.
Greville Janner is one of the very few people for whom I have no sympathy whatsoever. As head of the board of deputies he was a complete bastard
The question is why was he not investigated and prosecuted a long time ago?
The allegations seemed to be an open secret 30 years ago. I asked that question in the 1980s to a Met PC friend who mentioned his name, along with Smith, Brittan and Savile. He didn't know either. "Above my pay grade."
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
But if they do, what are the consequences?
The moderator tells them that they are a very naughty boy/girl?
Do we know who the senior guy at the mirror is who allegedly said "It’s f***ing terrifying to think that c*** might be running the country in three weeks’ time.”
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
They will not make personal attacks, but what on earth would they say if they couldn't attack the Government's record?
They could talk about their positive vision for the future
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
But if they do, what are the consequences?
I noted on the radio it was said that Clegg and Cameron weren't invited.
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
Fair play went out the window a good while back this election campaign tbh.
Greville Janner is one of the very few people for whom I have no sympathy whatsoever. As head of the board of deputies he was a complete bastard
The question is why was he not investigated and prosecuted a long time ago?
The allegations seemed to be an open secret 30 years ago. I asked that question in the 1980s to a Met PC friend who mentioned his name, along with Smith, Brittan and Savile. He didn't know either. "Above my pay grade."
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
Does it not if anything prove the opposite? If you were into assaulting little boys then why parade one in public?
Anecdote alert: I've been canvassing in 5 SW London seats for the last 30 days or so. There's been no discernible Labour up tick; the Lib Dems are saying nothing (so could go red) and Tories numbers are up maybe 3 to 5%. I met an ex-Lib Dem official who said that ex-yellows will vote 40% Tory, the rest Labour/Green but he can't work out the split. Hard election to call.
Greville Janner is one of the very few people for whom I have no sympathy whatsoever. As head of the board of deputies he was a complete bastard
The question is why was he not investigated and prosecuted a long time ago?
The allegations seemed to be an open secret 30 years ago. I asked that question in the 1980s to a Met PC friend who mentioned his name, along with Smith, Brittan and Savile. He didn't know either. "Above my pay grade."
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
If they have any sense, they will all attack Cameron and not each other. Cameron isn't there to defend himself (his choice) so I hope they go for him. What an opportunity!
Someone said a few days ago that they aren't allowed to because there's no ability for the Tories to immediately rebute
But if they do, what are the consequences?
I noted on the radio it was said that Clegg and Cameron weren't invited.
Because Dave Wasnt prepared to attend and Nick couldnt have this and QT?
Greville Janner is one of the very few people for whom I have no sympathy whatsoever. As head of the board of deputies he was a complete bastard
The question is why was he not investigated and prosecuted a long time ago?
The allegations seemed to be an open secret 30 years ago. I asked that question in the 1980s to a Met PC friend who mentioned his name, along with Smith, Brittan and Savile. He didn't know either. "Above my pay grade."
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
Does it not if anything prove the opposite? If you were into assaulting little boys then why parade one in public?
Were you a consultant to OJ Simpson's defence team?
Greville Janner is one of the very few people for whom I have no sympathy whatsoever. As head of the board of deputies he was a complete bastard
The question is why was he not investigated and prosecuted a long time ago?
The allegations seemed to be an open secret 30 years ago. I asked that question in the 1980s to a Met PC friend who mentioned his name, along with Smith, Brittan and Savile. He didn't know either. "Above my pay grade."
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
Does it not if anything prove the opposite? If you were into assaulting little boys then why parade one in public?
Maybe because you really were untouchable? In those days, sex abuse of children was considered something of a joke, as I recall...
If this Labour government is deeply disappointing: plus ça change. This Labour government has also done great good, with more to come. That is something worth voting for.
So that's more positive than before other elections.
Another day, and another day closer to Miliband assuming power.
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276 Lab 289 Lib Dem 34 UKIP 2 Green 0 SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.
That forecast doesn't seem to me to justify your pessimism. I'd say there's still everything to play for.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
This does bring into question the widespread assumption that time is running out for Dan Hodges' career as a columnist. Given how long Toynbee has been able to publish the same old rubbish in the Guardian he might feel hard done by not to continue to be gainfully employed by the Telegraph well into the next decade.
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3% Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0% Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2% Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8% Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Why? When Lebo presented to UK polling event that I attended back in February, he was forecasting 322 Conservative seats.
Has he lost confidence in his model?
Probably. Swingback appears mortally wounded this time around, which - as I understand it - is the main reason for the high Tory seat count in the model.
OTOH by-election swingback is right on schedule. Maybe the problem is that polling is getting better.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
If the Tory Party loses this election, that's the fault of the Tory Party. Not Nigel Farage or anyone else.
For me the most interesting thing about the last couple of days is Farage softening his stance to Dave.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
Nigel sought to destroy the Tory Party. Epic fail.
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
Isn't this stuff supposed to wait until 10pm on may 7th?
If dave doesn't get his majority, it could turn very ugly, very fast.
Comments
I thought it was an interview show with Clegg and Cameron, a feather in their caps securing this airtime rather than partaking in the debate etc?
Could both be right, they could be thesenior figures I guess. Lets see
Carswell on QT w Grant Shapps, Yvette Cooper, Angus Robertson & Jo Swinson.. I guess he will be slaughtering Farage's performance in the debate
Duly noted, Sunil PRASANNAN.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/apr/16/ukip-the-former-darling-of-the-right-wing-press-has-lost-its-support
"*reaches for Islay's finest quality mind bleach**
It's not easy to tell whether this has an effect on the undecided. The Tories certainly believe people are judged by their friends otherwise they wouldn't have expended so much energy linking Ed to Nicola Alex and any bogeyman union leader they could find.
It would certainly be ironic if it was Murdoch the Barclay Brothers and Dacre what won it for Ed!
What I need is a well-appointed Highlands Pied a Terre to visit, with a well-stocked cellar (Left or Right Bank, I'm not fussy)
Noticeable that those reporting the booing of Christopher Hope for inferring racist undertones by mentioning the "one black face in the manifesto" usually fail to mention what the tv pictures show. That it was black and Asian UKIP candidates that were booing Hope as if to say "what about us?"
Nutz.
Anyway, my pick of the conservative constituency bets is City of Chester @ 2/1, if you're not put off by the Ashcroft poll.
DYOR.
Where I do agree with you is that the Tories moved very urgently to action, without explaining what they're about or why that action was necessary.
People heard cut the deficit and the Big Society. They reluctantly understood the need for action on the former, and were totally confused by the latter. They preferred Cameron as PM to Brown.
Immigration has been a serious failing. The party management by Cameron has been dire. But most of all I think the modernisation project failed to address the problem the Tories had was being seen for the rich and wealthy, not male and pale.
A grassroots reform of the party to attract and recruit members as part of a centre-right mission to transform Britain in the interests of all would have been the trick. Cameron to be very clear day in and day out what he was about, and to hammer it home.
http://conservativewoman.co.uk/nick-wood-if-you-cant-beat-ukip-ignore-it/
MOR can't find 2/1 in Chester!
If you can get on with Coral then Taunton Deane @ 4/7 and Worcester @ 8/11 are still inexplicably there.
I'm balls deep in Tory Constituency bets tbh.
Overall book is more Ed tilted.
The Lab Maj odds on Betfair are just completely bonkers. OK, Lab Maj is unlikely, but it's not once-in-two-centuries unlikely, which is what the odds suggest. And if it were, then the constituency-level odds should reflect it, which they don't.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041058/STEPHEN-GLOVER-s-hardly-word-disagree-Ukip-s-manifesto-know-parties-lying-But.html
They are racist after all!
It's unlikely, but not 50-1 unlikely.
I was asked by the priest what my religion was. I said with some trepidation "Atheist". He said "Thank God for that. I though you were a Protestant!".
Applying the (original) L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 8.3%
Con seat lead 74 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.5%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 53.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 46.8%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Comment: L&N have recently altered their model in an opaque way, changing the inputs and outputs to produce a much closer result...
Has he lost confidence in his model?
If they're all relentlessly negative, then sure they all get to have a go, but who stands out? And they'll all lose the oportunity to say something different.
All five parties must understand this, so I think they'll be more likely to have a 5 minute hate, before they start trying to differentiate.
Anyway, whatever the reason, the key point is: profit from it!
I've moved a few other prices - like UKIP in Waveney and Labour in DCT, both were buys @0.1-1 (reasonable for the 9/1 on the 2nd place bets).
"(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)"
I think the problem is you're not doing enough Monte Carlo simulations
Labour - shows Ed is ready to govern
SNP - Nicola strong performance blew Labour away
UKIP - Man of the people tells it like it is
Green - The 3 woman on the panel most decisive with answers
Plaid - strong performance from the women
Conservatives - shows the chaos that will happen if we get a coalition of Labour and SNP
Lib Dems - we should have been there to show we can moderate the ideas of all the parties
The biggest donation to the Conservatives came from individual donor Michael Tory, who gave the party £75,000
Time running out for Dave, and short of a pact with the LDs and/or UKIP, I really doubt anything can save him now. People are probably already sending postal votes back - the voting has begun, and I can't see what could shift people's views between now and May 7th so it's all about getting out the vote.
Accordingly, I have just posted my seats prediction in the prediction competition and I'd be surprised if this changed much before May 7th:
Cons 276
Lab 289
Lib Dem 34
UKIP 2
Green 0
SNP 31
Ed becomes PM.
When you have other opposition parties, who aren't affected by the pendulum effect of having to defend their recent record in government, then it wouldn't be surprising if it broke the model. So the success or otherwise of the model depends on how credible the other parties are in the eyes of the electorate.
In 1985 I saw Janner in the company of a ~9 year old boy in school uniform in the Gallery of the House of Commons. Proves nothing, of course.
Careful, you'll set Mark Senior off.
UKIP have people on the ground. Unlike Yougov, they aren't polling the same party stalwarts, over and over again, and getting the same result, day after day.
The SNP have provided a lesson in staying noticed with good cop Nicola/ bad cop Alex
He's now reached the point where he sees his role in political life will be as a footnote - mentioned in passing as the man who facilitated Ed Miliband, Prime Minister. The Prime Minister who finally climbed up the EU's rectum.
Way to go, Nigel. UKIP. Truly, the Fucking for Virginity Party.
If dave doesn't get his majority, it could turn very ugly, very fast.