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edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll

Via @politicalpics Is this what we should be expecting? pic.twitter.com/Ne7C1wTMbh

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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I might have to vote Tory now.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    MORI is a bitter blow for the Tories, IMO.

    Two more MORI polls until EICIPM?
  • Tabman
    Tabman Posts: 1,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    The enmity between Clegg and Miliband is palpable, TSE. There's no way you'd see Ed and Nick on the doorstep of No 10. Labout would demand his resignation as a price if he holds his seat.

    Its far more likely that Ed and Wee 'Eck will cosy up together. One thing the last 5 years has done is purge the Lib Dems of their most left-leaning members. I suspect the majority would prefer opposition to another coalition unless we get near 40 MPs and the Tories are the largest party again.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    It was all so simple in 2010.

    Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.

    It's all so complicated now !
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mori write up.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Recent opinion polls are suggesting a result heading towards Lab 300 Con 250 SNP 50 LD 25. Although I'd be pleased with that, I'm highly sceptical. It's a lot easier holding seats than winning them, 1997 notwithstanding. The damage that Ukip will do to the Tories' chances seems to be lessening every day. And you can never be confident that Labour will GOTV.
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited April 2015
    Is there a chance Miliband could do a Kinnock in 1987, i.e. lose but be judged to have done well enough to survive as leader?

    The biggest gain for the Tories in 1987 was that Kinnock survived to lose 1992 as well, so in effect their 1987 campaign won them two GEs.

    Miliband is probably my favorite Labour leader since Kinnock. Both of them actually shrank in the job.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Todays MORI - EICIPM

    Presumably carried out mainly before Tory giveaway via Magic Money Tree?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Bond, it's possible we could get a very knotty result, all leaders staying in place and a second election.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Situation A

    A debate between two politicians is being held on the roof of the Empire State Building

    One of the politicians has a well known fear of heights and refuses to debate

    The other says he is scared of coming here and debating

    Personal attack.

    Situation B

    A debate between two politicians is being held in a TV studio

    One politician refuses to debate

    The other lists his policy failures and says he is scared of coming here and debating

    Not a personal attack

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 6
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FPT @Josias - No, I did not say the BBC report was about politics, I said I did not understand your claim that religion, immigration and Europe were not political. Sadly, it is you that has the basic problem with the English language. You also have a distinct problem with self-awareness. Your willingness to consistently call out every terrible thing you believe Labour does is only matched by your total inability to do the same for the Tories. The Fallon story was all over the press and the TV for several days. I am afraid I just do not believe you missed it. As you consistently - and somewhat obsessively observe - I am a vile, venal, hypocrite. I admit it; which, at least, makes me honest.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''MORI is a bitter blow for the Tories, IMO.''

    No it isn;t. Its just another poll.

    All the polls have done so far this time around is remind me why we have elections.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Bond, it's possible we could get a very knotty result, all leaders staying in place and a second election.

    Nah,

    One of Cameron or Miliband will be off.

    Graham Brady probably sharpening the knife right about now...
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays MORI - EICIPM

    Presumably carried out mainly before Tory giveaway via Magic Money Tree?

    12-15 April, so across all the manifestos
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    isam said:

    Situation A

    A debate between two politicians is being held on the roof of the Empire State Building

    One of the politicians has a well known fear of heights and refuses to debate

    The other says he is scared of coming here and debating

    Personal attack.

    Situation B

    A debate between two politicians is being held in a TV studio

    One politician refuses to debate

    The other lists his policy failures and says he is scared of coming here and debating

    Not a personal attack

    Bad mistake by Dave IMO.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Pulpstar, not if there's no viable coalition and another (swift) election is in the offing. Can't have a leadership election during a General Election campaign.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The data table are out.

    I'm on my mobile, can someone have a look at the Scottish sub-sample and post it.

    Thanks

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tissue_Price said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays MORI - EICIPM

    Presumably carried out mainly before Tory giveaway via Magic Money Tree?

    12-15 April, so across all the manifestos
    OK thanks so that is a very bad poll for the Tories.

    EICIPM - 2.08 Betfair

    LAB most seats 2.84 Betfair

    Look good to me even though I am already on at GT 2.5 and 3.2
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, not if there's no viable coalition and another (swift) election is in the offing. Can't have a leadership election during a General Election campaign.

    Excepting the following:

    SDLP-Con; PC-Con; SNP-Con; UUP-Labour; UKIP-Labour

    They'll all start talking to each other after the Election and we'll get some sort of Gov't.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The fieldwork as predicted was Sunday to Wednesday.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The data table are out.

    I'm on my mobile, can someone have a look at the Scottish sub-sample and post it.

    Thanks

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx

    Full data tables aren't out yet
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The data table are out.

    I'm on my mobile, can someone have a look at the Scottish sub-sample and post it.

    Thanks

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx

    No regional breakdown as far as I can see.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    But given that SNP/Plaid are on 6 % nationally it's mega.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    The comment of the campaign so far is from Clegg offering 'to give Conservatives heart and give Labour head'. I'm not really sure I want to think of Clegg giving Miliband head.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The data table are out.

    I'm on my mobile, can someone have a look at the Scottish sub-sample and post it.

    Thanks

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx

    Full data tables aren't out yet
    That's why I couldn't find it then.

    SNP/PC on 6% which seems higher than normal, I think.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Alistair said:

    But given that SNP/Plaid are on 6 % nationally it's mega.

    Could be a Mebyon surge?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2015
    taffys said:

    ''MORI is a bitter blow for the Tories, IMO.''

    No it isn;t. Its just another poll.

    All the polls have done so far this time around is remind me why we have elections.

    It's another poll where the Tories show no sign of turning the tide, if anything the tide is probably rising over Cameron and Osborne's head's right around now...
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2015
    Afternoon all.

    Green (+2) - And this after truly awful TV outings by Natalie Bennett, and the wackiest manifesto seen in years? - the world's gone mad etc, etc! :lol:
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all.

    Green (+2) - And this after truly awful TV outings by Natalie Bennett, and the wackiest manifesto seen in years? - the world's gone mad etc, etc! :lol:

    MoE?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    This won't reflect the manifestos, it always takes the electorate about a week and a half to let those sink in and change any VI.

    Check Scottish polling IMMEDIATELY post Indy-Ref to see what I mean.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    It was all so simple in 2010.

    Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.

    It's all so complicated now !
    Your vote for Clegg strategy is very risky IMO

    I think you may end up regretting it as indeed many left of centre voters did in 2010.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It's another poll where the Tories show no sign of turning the tide, if anything the tide is probably rising over Cameron and Osborne's head's right around now....''

    Bet on labour then mate. There's plenty of value.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tabman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    The enmity between Clegg and Miliband is palpable, TSE. There's no way you'd see Ed and Nick on the doorstep of No 10. Labout would demand his resignation as a price if he holds his seat.

    Its far more likely that Ed and Wee 'Eck will cosy up together. One thing the last 5 years has done is purge the Lib Dems of their most left-leaning members. I suspect the majority would prefer opposition to another coalition unless we get near 40 MPs and the Tories are the largest party again.
    Is it too late for me to register myself back in Manchester Central?

    I can vote Tory there, and know my vote is worth a pitcher of warm piss.

    But in Sheffield Hallam my vote could determine who becomes PM after the election.

    To quote Uncle Ben, with great power, comes great responsibility .
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    taffys said:

    ''It's another poll where the Tories show no sign of turning the tide, if anything the tide is probably rising over Cameron and Osborne's head's right around now....''

    Bet on labour then mate. There's plenty of value.

    There is indeed.

    But there is also value on the Tories in the seat markets.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    After yesterdays 'ignored' poll from the South West? If true, the LD's won't be helping anyone.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    "To quote Uncle Ben, with great power, comes great responsibility . "

    You are a lawyer, you can find a loophole I am sure.
    :)
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Looking forward to the also rans snapping at each other tonight...all a bit.. So What..''

    Disagree. Farage has the capacity to really hurt ed with the WWC, in my opinion. Enough to make up the reported 7% in hull east??? LOL
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    anotherDave said:

    Mori write up.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3552/Conservatives-and-Labour-still-close-in-the-polls.aspx

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-april-2015-charts.pdf

    Page 20.

    Are they having a laugh?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Thread header came up -

    "LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll"


    blimey I thought, Labour must have had a big move..... damn and blast, my heart sank

    Then the actual numbers below the heading weren't anywhere near as game-over as I feared.

    Phew

  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    It was all so simple in 2010.

    Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.

    It's all so complicated now !
    Your vote for Clegg strategy is very risky IMO

    I think you may end up regretting it as indeed many left of centre voters did in 2010.
    Only the emotional ones regretted it, a coalition was better for them policy-wise that a Con majority, and as far as political strategy went it worked out great because they got half the LibDem voters.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    The IPSOS leader ratings and the difference between Cameron and Miliband are the killer for the Tories.

    Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.

    It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.

    No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    It was all so simple in 2010.

    Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.

    It's all so complicated now !
    Your vote for Clegg strategy is very risky IMO

    I think you may end up regretting it as indeed many left of centre voters did in 2010.
    You're hardly a disinterested observer, Mr BJO.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Are they having a laugh?

    Is that the page on 'definitely decided to vote?'
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    But is a leader a pre-requisite for negoations. Who would enter the cabinet?

    Lord Clegg?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Heard from Northern Ireland this morning.

    Apathy party definitely winning the day there, turnout will be lower than Scotland at any rate.

    I wonder why the Alliance aren't able to hoover up the "Religion be damned" vote there though ?

    Should be ripe - surely ?!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Ed is in for a world of pain tonight.

    But at least he's there.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    taffys said:

    Are they having a laugh?

    Is that the page on 'definitely decided to vote?'

    Yes.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Heard from Northern Ireland this morning.

    Apathy party definitely winning the day there, turnout will be lower than Scotland at any rate.

    I wonder why the Alliance aren't able to hoover up the "Religion be damned" vote there though ?

    Should be ripe - surely ?!

    Nah, this is the place that asks atheists

    "Is it the Roman Catholic God you don't believe in, or the Protestant God you don't believe in?"
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Jonathan said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    But is a leader a pre-requisite for negoations. Who would enter the cabinet?

    Lord Clegg?
    That's why I'm suggesting the MPs would stitch something up themselves. They could do the whole thing in an hour or two.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Yes.

    It shows that 38% remain undecided....a slightly lower per centage that last time...is that particularly unexpected?
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that all ARSE projections through to the SUPER ARSE projection on the eve of poll will now include a turnout projection.

    Note - The last ARSE projection in the Scottish Independence Referendum was accurate to within under half a point and given over a month before polling day.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I might have to vote Tory now.

    It was all so simple in 2010.

    Vote to get rid of Brown. Well voting Tory in Sheffield Central certainly achieved that, and my Pudsey goodasrelatives voting Lib Dem achieved that too.

    It's all so complicated now !
    Your vote for Clegg strategy is very risky IMO

    I think you may end up regretting it as indeed many left of centre voters did in 2010.
    You're hardly a disinterested observer, Mr BJO.
    Are any of us ?
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How many 37% satisfied are remaining Lib Dems?
  • Tabman
    Tabman Posts: 1,046
    dyedwoolie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
    Clegg - Maybe
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Maybe

  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Perhaps a mistake by Dave to allow Ed to go on a leaders debate without him. Strikes me as a hit to nothing for Ed
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    @Bond: Miliband is indeed an atrocious leader. But you have to ask what is it that the Tories are doing to lose to this man? Cameron's turned out to be a decent PM, the economy could be in worse shape, and he's had the LibDems in coalition to prevent it being a "nasty government" (and he's virtually killed them off in the process). And yet..!

    I know plenty of people who are convinced, for the reasons stated above, that the Tories will get in with a majority, and that the polls must be wrong. As I say, I am skeptical - I think the poll weightings will turn out to be a little off - but only inasmuch as I think the Tories will scrape the gold medal for largest party. They really are failing to get back into power when the Labour Party are virtually holding open the door to Number 10 for them. Some reasons...

    1. They lost the battle for hearts and minds. They were too quick after May 2010 to put into practice many of the ideological changes wanted by Conservative thinktanks, against a background of austerity. This made them look like they were in power for the sake of their friends. Robbing the poor to give to the rich, if you will.

    2. The NHS. This was always going to be a killer issue for the Tories. They needed a few Nick Winterton types in charge to start to negate this issue.

    3. Immigration. Not really their fault but they've continually blustered and floundered.

    4. The ground war. They were already behind, but they've lost lots of activists to Ukip and the task is just too big for the remaining troops.

    5. The air war. The national campaign has been fairly disappointing. It started quite assertively but by this stage you can hardly tell they're the party of government, what with all the jousting over promises. Cameron is clearly no Thatcher.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    98.5% book on the Challengers' Debate.

    I haven't checked how everyone is settling, so it might not be a true arb, but there should be value regardless.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/challengers-debate/winner
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    BenM said:

    The IPSOS leader ratings and the difference between Cameron and Miliband are the killer for the Tories.

    Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.

    It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.

    No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.

    Why would only a third of the public seeing Milliband as a good leader and only a quarter as good in a crisis sway votes towards Labour? Wouldn't people be voting Labour in spite of him?

  • Tabman
    Tabman Posts: 1,046
    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How does that square with the FTPA?

    If its permissible and a second election is as indecisive, I can see Le Grand Coalition coming to fruition.

  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    taffys said:

    Yes.

    It shows that 38% remain undecided....a slightly lower per centage that last time...is that particularly unexpected?

    Apologies, I've misread it.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    edited April 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    FPT @Josias - No, I did not say the BBC report was about politics, I said I did not understand your claim that religion, immigration and Europe were not political. Sadly, it is you that has the basic problem with the English language. You also have a distinct problem with self-awareness. Your willingness to consistently call out every terrible thing you believe Labour does is only matched by your total inability to do the same for the Tories. The Fallon story was all over the press and the TV for several days. I am afraid I just do not believe you missed it. As you consistently - and somewhat obsessively observe - I am a vile, venal, hypocrite. I admit it; which, at least, makes me honest.

    Did we really need to pollute another thread with this?

    Where did I claim that they were 'not political'? AFAICR I said directly the opposite. But that is not what you were trying to prove.

    To recap: you provided a link to that report as a sign that the BBC did studies into their political bias, in the context of political parties. Which it does not. Agree? If you read the report that is fairly easy to see, from the terms of reference, yet alone the contents.

    Feel free not to believe me re. Fallon. It happens to be the truth. I do have other rather pleasant things to occupy my time. ;-)

    As for not criticising the Tories: are you serious? Just last night I bashed them (and to be fair, Labour) for having splash screens on their website - but note my first post was just about the Conservatives, as they were the first party's site I looked at (and that was because conservatives.com is easier to remember than labour.org.uk). I also congratulated the Lib Dems and Greens for having various disabled-access versions of their manifestos.

    As for your final sentence: that's just a rather silly attempt at putting words into my mouth that I do not believe.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BenM said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How many 37% satisfied are remaining Lib Dems?
    Quite. Although satisfaction would suggest prepared to keep the status quo. I'm just musing really, nothing in this MORI poll suggests the 39 in ICM could be accurate. If you take the range of leads and lacks you come out with something like a dead heat on 34/35 which, to be honest, feels about right as things stand. All down to whether the country (and by that I mean of course the waverers) decides to gamble on change or stick with the devil they know.
  • Tabman
    Tabman Posts: 1,046
    Tabman said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
    Clegg - Maybe
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Maybe

    Technically speaking, Cable and Webb are OBers, but most wouldn't categorise them as such.

  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    edited April 2015
    The current trend (i.e. none) is Labour's friend.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Roger said:

    Perhaps a mistake by Dave to allow Ed to go on a leaders debate without him. Strikes me as a hit to nothing for Ed

    Sturgeon and Farage v Miliband's going to be entertaining.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Roger said:

    Perhaps a mistake by Dave to allow Ed to go on a leaders debate without him. Strikes me as a hit to nothing for Ed


    Challengers debate - not leaders.

    And Dave/Nick get their own time later to make up.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that all ARSE projections through to the SUPER ARSE projection on the eve of poll will now include a turnout projection.

    Note - The last ARSE projection in the Scottish Independence Referendum was accurate to within under half a point and given over a month before polling day.

    Best Unbiased Turnout Total: Official Count Knowledgeably Supplied
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tabman said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How does that square with the FTPA?

    If its permissible and a second election is as indecisive, I can see Le Grand Coalition coming to fruition.

    FTPA will be irrelevant if no coalition is agreed, the country will be borderline ungovernable and pressure will be brought to bear to either amend or vote the 2/3 for dissolution. The PM need only need bring forward a vote of no confidence in his own government, and if the opposition vote it down, he has tacit approval for his programme, with the associated collapse in support for the opposition for playing politics at the expense of strong/efficient government.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Of course. The government of in coalition could probably arrange to fail no confidence and if the 2/3 is not achieved, go to the Queen and say 'no confidence in the house, over to the other guy' who will then either have to govern in minority or arrange for the 2/3 to pass as he or she won't get a QS through.
    ACTIVATE HMQ!
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Dulce et decorum est
    Pro Patria Ipsos MORI

    :)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    dyedwoolie said:

    BenM said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How many 37% satisfied are remaining Lib Dems?
    Quite. Although satisfaction would suggest prepared to keep the status quo. I'm just musing really, nothing in this MORI poll suggests the 39 in ICM could be accurate. If you take the range of leads and lacks you come out with something like a dead heat on 34/35 which, to be honest, feels about right as things stand. All down to whether the country (and by that I mean of course the waverers) decides to gamble on change or stick with the devil they know.
    Conservatives on 35% in Scotland was a fair contributor to the overall 39%, and an obvious subsample outlier.

    The E&W score was 41, which if you adjust back to a normal Scottish part gives 38 methinks so very good, but not 39 good.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Cyclefree said:

    BenM said:

    The IPSOS leader ratings and the difference between Cameron and Miliband are the killer for the Tories.

    Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.

    It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.

    No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.

    Why would only a third of the public seeing Milliband as a good leader and only a quarter as good in a crisis sway votes towards Labour? Wouldn't people be voting Labour in spite of him?

    Because Cameron is now not much of a draw and Labour's brand is stronger than the Tory one.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
    Clegg - Maybe
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Maybe

    Technically speaking, Cable and Webb are OBers, but most wouldn't categorise them as such.

    Clegg - Yes
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Yes
    Cable - Yes
    Webb - Yes

  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Don't forget the wannabee,s cat fight show tonight
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744

    "Challengers debate - not leaders."

    But however you cut it it makes Ed look brave and Dave look chicken. There's no other way for the public to read it.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    BenM said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    37% satisfied with the government - top end of Tory expectations?
    Hard to see this as anything other than 33-36 for each of the big two and depending on which way the last minute pencil hoverers go, a PM with approx 280 seats and the prospect of another election inside 12 months

    How many 37% satisfied are remaining Lib Dems?
    Quite. Although satisfaction would suggest prepared to keep the status quo. I'm just musing really, nothing in this MORI poll suggests the 39 in ICM could be accurate. If you take the range of leads and lacks you come out with something like a dead heat on 34/35 which, to be honest, feels about right as things stand. All down to whether the country (and by that I mean of course the waverers) decides to gamble on change or stick with the devil they know.
    Conservatives on 35% in Scotland was a fair contributor to the overall 39%, and an obvious subsample outlier.

    The E&W score was 41, which if you adjust back to a normal Scottish part gives 38 methinks so very good, but not 39 good.
    Modelling the kippers seems to be somewhat divisive too. ICM is more like what will probably happen to the purple vote and MORI and the rest more what it actually is being stated as now,
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    BenM said:

    The IPSOS leader ratings and the difference between Cameron and Miliband are the killer for the Tories.

    Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.

    It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.

    No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.

    Why would only a third of the public seeing Milliband as a good leader and only a quarter as good in a crisis sway votes towards Labour? Wouldn't people be voting Labour in spite of him?

    Because Cameron is now not much of a draw and Labour's brand is stronger than the Tory one.
    Perhaps the country now is so in love with austerity that they don't want £8Bn pa spunked on the NHS and want to stick with Ed's more fiscally constipated £2.5Bn increase ?

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    WITHOUT Ipsos MORI (still awaiting tables), Lab lead 0.8% in the part-ELBOW for the week so far, inc. last night's YG.

    Simple average INCLUDING Ipsos MORI = Lab now 0.1% ahead.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    It will be good fun to see all the failures trying to deliver the perfect sound bite tonight..
  • Tabman
    Tabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
    Clegg - Maybe
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Maybe

    Technically speaking, Cable and Webb are OBers, but most wouldn't categorise them as such.

    Clegg - Yes
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Yes
    Cable - Yes
    Webb - Yes

    Jack - I'm not that plugged in to what's happening on the ground, being a bit of an armchair general these days, but I'll take it that your ARSE is speaking the truth loudly ;)

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    If @JackW is predicting Danny's demise well it is all over for him now.
  • Greenwich_Floater
    Greenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    If Ed gets in with SNP support, we should set up a competition with the question: -

    "On what date will the first VI opinion poll by published that indicates Labour support of 15% or less"

    I'll get an early entry in - 12th Jan 2017
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cool Cammo was right not to be grouped in the scavengers tonight ... be fun watching the snarling over the political bones..
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Despite this morning's disappointing Ipsos-MORI poll from the Tories' viewpoint, Sporting's GE Seats spread is unchanged for major both parties with the Tories still 15 seats ahead on 286 (mid) and Labour on 271
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Miliband's ratings going up are not a surprise - it seems to be chiefly driven by solid Labour voters rallying round. When we get the full charts it will be interesting to see what non-Labourites think.

    Plus this looks like a left-leaning sample which will help.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    It seems the scope for the Tories here is to get the 6% of voters who are currently satisfied with Cameron (39% in total), but aren't actually planning to vote Tory (only 33%), to actually vote Tory. I except most of them are blue liberals and UKIP supporters, with perhaps a handful of Labour swingers.

    Everyone who seems to be satisfied with Miliband is voting for him, and some. Looks like the age old toxic Tory brand problem again.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited April 2015
    @Tabman
    In the case of Jack's ARSE, "trumpet" is more apt?
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    I've just read up on Fallon's comments. I don't agree with the 'stabbed in the back' meme: as I've said passim, although it could be painted that way, it was first and foremost a family problem (tragedy?) for the Miliband family.

    As for the comments on Syria (not sure if this is the same interview): Miliband behaved disgracefully at the time, and has recently compounded that by trying to take credit for something that did not happen. I can see why a defence secretary would be pi**ed off at that. Not that I expect many Labourites to agree ...

    Linking the Syria comments with Putin is both right and wrong. It is right in the fact that Putin must have been pleased with the way things turned out, at least immediately, but wrong to make any further connection. (Note I have been unable to quickly find what Farron did say about it; only second-hand reports).

    As for the comments on Trident: I'm biased on that as I believe, at least at the moment, that a four-ship system is the way forward. And if it did come to a Lab-SNP coalition, it is very likely to be something the SNP demand not to happen (or more realistically, killed by being kicked into the long grass for another five years). *If* (and it is a big conditional) it came to a Lab-SNP coalition, I think Miliband would have little problem with dropping Trident.

    SO: happy now?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    peter_from_putney said:

    Despite this morning's disappointing Ipsos-MORI poll from the Tories' viewpoint, Sporting's GE Seats spread is unchanged for major both parties with the Tories still 15 seats ahead on 286 (mid) and Labour on 271

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115721172

    Conservative 278.5 - not sure this should be > 2-1 on unders.

    Listing seats by odds reveals roughly Even money here. http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    BenM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    BenM said:

    The IPSOS leader ratings and the difference between Cameron and Miliband are the killer for the Tories.

    Tim, once of this parish, said that this relative difference between the two leaders could sway the election towards Labour if they were close.

    It also shows the negative Tory 'get Miliband' strategy has been an utter disaster.

    No wonder the Tory campaign has pivoted 180. Problem is, the pivot was not subtle - it was in full gaze of the public.

    Why would only a third of the public seeing Milliband as a good leader and only a quarter as good in a crisis sway votes towards Labour? Wouldn't people be voting Labour in spite of him?

    Because Cameron is now not much of a draw and Labour's brand is stronger than the Tory one.
    Thanks. I would say that it means that people are voting Labour in spite of him not because of him. That will, if Labour do form the government, lead to interesting times. A government cannot IMO anyway be really effective if the person in charge is not seen as an effective and credible leader. Being elected is the start of the process not the end.

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what happens in the circumstance that Clegg loses in Sheffield, but the LDs have numbers that are critical to the formation of a govt.

    Farron smiles :)
    Presumably MPs would do a coronation, which the members would be likely to ratify when they got the chance to vote on it. Maybe the members would pick Farron if it was up to them, but would the MPs?
    Depends how many orange bookers survive
    Clegg - Maybe
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Maybe

    Technically speaking, Cable and Webb are OBers, but most wouldn't categorise them as such.

    Clegg - Yes
    Alexander - No
    Laws - Yes
    Lamb - Yes
    Davey - Yes
    Cable - Yes
    Webb - Yes

    Jack - I'm not that plugged in to what's happening on the ground, being a bit of an armchair general these days, but I'll take it that your ARSE is speaking the truth loudly ;)

    I'm profoundly disappointed to hear you're not pounding the streets of the Highlands in support of your yellow perilist of choice.

    For shame Tabbers, for shame.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    BTW:

    It's Ipsos MORI, not Ipsos-MORI or Ipsos-Mori or even Ipsos Mori.

    :)
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    On the other hand ...
    Comres poll on SW where voters really have to think (and are well outside 'the Westminster bubble') shows - CON 44%, LAB 13%, LD 26%, UKIP 10%. (13 point Tory swing)
    As UKPR say - 'Given these are all seats that the Liberal Democrats won in 2010 this is a huge turnaround'
    UKPR also point out 'The results that ComRes got in their constituency question are actually extremely similar to the ones that Ashcroft got in his initial, national question.'

    On Mori - is it strange that Labour go up 1 (and Greens go up 2 !!) but UKIP go down 3!
    Do those movements make sense? Big movements for the minor parties.
    Greens increase their vote share by a third and UKIP lose something like a quarter of their share?
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