politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations
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@MrHarryCole: ICM living up to their "gold standard" reputation. Sending Twitter round the f**king bend: not gold but priceless.0
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Labour sub 250 if this is the score.antifrank said:
That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully.0 -
After a wobbly week ... wow0
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Is there any chance I can get away with pinning ICM on Labour's "spend less than the Tories" manifesto?
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I can barely breathe in for laughing. And what did the Guardian have as a front page?
TheWatcher said:This is going to be amusing.
Sits back with popcorn.0 -
Scotland won't make any difference, as even on those numbers, the Tories would have one Scottish seat. The only question would be the make-up of the opposition.TheScreamingEagles said:
As an aside, I don't think a near total LibDem wipe-out in the SW is out of the question. It's possible you could see the LibDems reduced to Yeovil, Westmoreland, O&S, and one or two others (including Cambridge, obviously).0 -
Truly astonishing poll in more ways than one (all probably interconnected!).TheScreamingEagles said:
The lead is one issue but UKIP and Greens tied in fourth place - no other pollster has this!0 -
@antifrank - with MoE and extra Tory sample, this could be consistent with a general Tory lead of 1-2%.0
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Same week 2010, ICM was overstating Labourisam said:
6 weeks before last years Euros ICM had Labour on 36% and UKIP in 3rd on 20%antifrank said:That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
4 weeks later they had the Conservatives in the lead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
CM/Guardian 2010-04-11 37 31 20
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Yup, that's one less-discussed aspect of a good Tory performance: it will turn the Lib Dems' night from disaster into absolute carnage. Even if the LDs hold up comparatively well in the Con/LD marginals, the margins are so small that they still will be knocked out in most of them if the Tory share is static or rising on 2010.rcs1000 said:
As an aside, I don't think a near total LibDem wipe-out in the SW is out of the question. It's possible you could see the LibDems reduced to Yeovil, Westmoreland, O&S, and one or two others (including Cambridge, obviously).0 -
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.Grandiose said:antifrank said:That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.0 -
If that Baxter was accurate with the 6 SNP seats I'd be stuck like a pig lol0
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*comes back*
What's been happening?
BLOODY HELL!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll
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OUTLIER OUTLIER OUTLIER!0
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Wow. What the hell is that poll. Gold standard pollster as well.0
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Does that poll confirm that all the Tories have now returned home from Easter hols?
Nice numbers but plainly wrong. UKIP on 7? Come off it....0 -
Well quiteDanny565 said:
What do you mean "even before adjusting for Scotland"? Scotland wouldn't affect how many seats the Tories get.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
In a way, it doesn't matter. Party confidence will be important, as will the vague perception that e.g. UKIP will be a wasted vote as postal votes go out. So an outlier can still have an effect, just as Lab lead +6 drew (I suspect) some early Tory policies from the manifesto.Casino_Royale said:@antifrank - with MoE and extra Tory sample, this could be consistent with a general Tory lead of 1-2%.
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Front page tomorrow:
"The day the polls turned back"
Presumably.0 -
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Does that move your Elbow ?Sunil_Prasannan said:OUTLIER OUTLIER OUTLIER!
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As the great Bill Mac would say,
There'll be a lot of happy folk in Auchentennach tonight...0 -
Six-point lead. LOL.
Like I've said before, just imagine how different the narrative would be if we had daily ICM phone polls and monthly YouGov online polls.0 -
There's some 13/2 about on Lab 226-250. Even if you don't fully buy into this poll (and who does?) it's still value imo.TGOHF said:
Labour on about 240 - would be profitable for me !Danny565 said:
What do you mean "even before adjusting for Scotland"? Scotland wouldn't affect how many seats the Tories get.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mine too. Might need to reverse some of the Labour Maj. A Conservative majority is something I had all but ruled out.antifrank said:
That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That would be a compensation, I grant you. If they're going to get an overall majority though, I'd prefer the Conservatives to do still better and get Labour into one of the lower bands that I covered at still longer odds.Pulpstar said:
Labour sub 250 if this is the score.antifrank said:
That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully.0 -
Oh my life - check out the Scottish subsample.0
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Did Kinnock have a rally or something? Almost unheard of poll movement for this parliament....
40% strategy knocks a 35% 'soak the rich' strategy out of the park.0 -
This was the state of play on Sunday, the last end-of-week ELBOW (12th of April) - Remember an ELBOW week (regarding fieldwork end-dates) runs from Sunday to Saturday.TGOHF said:
Does that move your Elbow ?Sunil_Prasannan said:OUTLIER OUTLIER OUTLIER!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5873811693244989440 -
Just seen the Gold Standard poll -wow - outlier?0
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Labour on 12% in Scotland, Tories 35 !0
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Nothing on Comment is Free yet. Guardianistas speechless?0
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Take one last look at http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/ before they update.
We will not see a Labour lead again in our lifetimes this campaign.0 -
UKIP on 7% and Greens on 7% looks a bit weird.0
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Did they exclusively poll in Ayr?! LolPulpstar said:Labour on 12% in Scotland, Tories 35 !
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Biggest rogue poll since the IndyRef0
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Hmm, those personal ratings being so spectacularly out of line with other pollsters are making me suspicious.
I mean, Clegg rated higher than Ed?!?!?0 -
Bloody irritating that betfair is currently suffering a DDOS attack.0
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Lefties On The Verge Of A Nervous Breakdown!0
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Hard to say. Certainly ICM, Opinium, Com Res, and the last Ashcroft poll have shown a shift from UKIP to Conservative. OTOH, Yougov, Populus, TNS, Panelbase, Survation, all continue to show UKIP polling 13-18%. I certainly don't think UKIP will poll as little as 7%, but nor do I see the party polling in the high teens.SeanT said:The kippers do seem to be returning. They don't trust the Scots.
There's now a very clear inverse correlation between Conservative and UKIP scores in polls.0 -
Labour on 12% in Scotland, Tories 35 !
It's Brigadoon....its Briga- bloody - doon0 -
BOOOOOOM!!!!!0
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That's actually good news for the Tories. It means they'll be correspondingly underweight in England.dyedwoolie said:
Did they exclusively poll in Ayr?! LolPulpstar said:Labour on 12% in Scotland, Tories 35 !
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This is also very bad news for the Libdems is the SW. Could be down to a dozen or so MPs which is where they were in 1979!0
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Wot no new thread?
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.0 -
And who turns out. The Tory core vote of the over 60s generally turns out in all weathers,but Labour's better ground game in the key marginals may even that out.antifrank said:
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.Grandiose said:antifrank said:That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.0 -
UKIP steadying the ship in ELBOW, 13.7% two Sundays in a row now:Sean_F said:
Hard to say. Certainly ICM, Opinium, Com Res, and the last Ashcroft poll have shown a shift from UKIP to Conservative. OTOH, Yougov, Populus, TNS, Panelbase, Survation, all continue to show UKIP polling 13-18%. I certainly don't think UKIP will poll as little as 7%, but nor do I see the party polling in the high teens.SeanT said:The kippers do seem to be returning. They don't trust the Scots.
There's now a very clear inverse correlation between Conservative and UKIP scores in polls.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587377968634318848
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Rogue poll!!! Rogue poll!!0
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Brown trouser time for Labour.0
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SeanT Looks like the US Presidential 2016 will be 'brilliantly unpredictable' too. This is an excellent analysis by Nate Silver (excellent as it entirely endorses my own far less rigorous analysis!). It is officially a toss up and will stay there at least until well into 2016.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/0 -
Paging the Guardian.....0
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Probably slightly overstating Con and understating UKIP but looks right.0
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True that.Grandiose said:
In a way, it doesn't matter. Party confidence will be important, as will the vague perception that e.g. UKIP will be a wasted vote as postal votes go out. So an outlier can still have an effect, just as Lab lead +6 drew (I suspect) some early Tory policies from the manifesto.Casino_Royale said:@antifrank - with MoE and extra Tory sample, this could be consistent with a general Tory lead of 1-2%.
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Crikey. I wander off to buy some plants - and Dave gets a majority!
I shall now plant up all of Devon for the next three weeks.
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All this probably means Lord A has Lab ahead.0
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W Indies win the toss and bowl. Cook & Trott to open.0
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Nah - 9% Tory lead! Never knowingly under-bounced....TheScreamingEagles said:All this probably means Lord A has Lab ahead.
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It does look a little bit roguey. Maybe UKIP under by 2-3% and Tories overstated by 2-3%, but I'm guessing.0
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@DPJHodges: May be wrong, but isn't that three "rogue" ICM polls in a row that have shown the Tories ahead?0
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With this poll volatility, there is surely lots of money to be made on the betting exchanges!SeanT said:What a brilliantly unpredictable election. Great fun for us anoraks.
I still think Miliband will scrape to some horribly narrow plurality, but a couple more polls like this...?0 -
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5% Conservative lead in England and Wales (but distorted by 35% vote share in Scotland!)0
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I thought Mike wasn't about?TheWatcher said:Wot no new thread?
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair0 -
The last time that the Conservatives polled at 39% with ICM was just before the omnishambles budget.0
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Oh BTW:
LibDems on 8.2% in yesterday's ELBOW, their biggest score since August!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5873768646682869760 -
Outlier. But LOL.
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john_zims said:
@Tissue_Price
'"The day the polls turned back"
Where have Compouter2,Roger & Murali gone ?
Reporting for duty! I'm still with SeanT on this - Ed Milliband will be PM, but only just!0 -
Mikes probably got brown pants over his spread betting position on these figures...isam said:
I thought Mike wasn't about?TheWatcher said:Wot no new thread?
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair0 -
Just the golf clubs...dyedwoolie said:
Did they exclusively poll in Ayr?! LolPulpstar said:Labour on 12% in Scotland, Tories 35 !
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Makes Dave's decision not to do the BBC debate on Thursday the right one.0
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It'd be funny if CON Gain East Renfrewshire.
In fact this is probably a bad poll for Murphy in particular as he may not get Con-> Lab tacticals.0 -
I reckon it will be a ten point Tory leadTheScreamingEagles said:All this probably means Lord A has Lab ahead.
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Some of us pointed out the risks...Slackbladder said:
Mikes probably got brown pants over his spread betting position on these figures...isam said:
I thought Mike wasn't about?TheWatcher said:Wot no new thread?
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair0 -
Wow. That poll would have the Conservatives on 305 seats and Labour on 247. (And if I turn all the "sophiticated" stuff off when forecasting make that more like 320 Conservative seats!0
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I just popped two more ribs from laughing so much. Let the get Millibland witch hunt begin. 0
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Worth remembering that February's ICM had a Tory lead of 4% so not too out of line with that sort of lead (March was only a 1% lead and looks more likely to be the outlier).
But let's see what Lord Ashcroft's (phone) poll says0 -
Where is NicK Palmer and what does he think about the right wing manifesto0
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UKIP outpolled by Greens in the North. Tories ahead of Labour in the North and Labour ahead of Tories in the Midlands. ICM should have buried this one out of embarrassment!0
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Probably a rogue but that's going to knock the wind out of Ed's sails. But it's ICM and as SeanT said, can't be totally disregarded given their gold-standard status. Perfect timing for tomorrow's manifesto launch. Pity the poor saps in the Guardian upon receiving it...must have choked on their quinoa.0
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It's interesting that the poll rubbishers who were missing the other week when we had some good Labour polls are out in force today. suggested thread header "Tories struggle to get beyond a 6 point lead" ? 0
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They phoned up 90 people in Scotland, and found 9 Labour voters. There's probably a shy Labour effect here to be perfectly honest but I reckon Davidson may well have won over some of the ABC Labour rump.0
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Btw presumably ICM are doing more polls before the election?0
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Guardian say early 2012, before the Omnishambles budget.JonCisBack said:Pollsters eh... 6 pt lab lead, now 6pt Tory lead
39% looks toppish to say the least for the tories, no?
When is the last time they have been on 39%??
Labour haven't been on 39% since August 2014 (with Populus) or March 2013 with ICM itself.
Even if it is an outlier, it's hard to have an outlier on 39% if your true level of support is not the right side of 35%, particularly as the two previous ICM polls had the Tories on 36%.0 -
Surely it will be "Cameron still not certain of majority"......felix said:It's interesting that the poll rubbishers who were missing the other week when we had some good Labour polls are out in force today. suggested thread header "Tories struggle to get beyond a 6 point lead" ?
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Indeed. A gap of Tories 6 ahead vs 6 behind is just too wide. Someone's badly wrong. FWIW I think also the UKIP numbers depend critically on WHERE the support is coming from geographically. Labour have collapsed in Scotland as the Scots have realised it is the Islington Guardianista party for welfare immigrants (so to speak) and has utterly abandoned the WWC. UKIP is really a WWC party for the non-PC left or non-PC right - and may in the long run be more of a threat to Labour. If UKIP growth has really been in the North and retreat in the South then Labour are very fucked. If the UKIP numbers remain mainly in Tory seats and only very minimally eating into Labour WWC votes up north then Dave is in deep doodoo. I'm hoping the ex-Tory kippers are getting scared at the prospect of PM Miliband and holding their noses to vote blue.Casino_Royale said:
And who turns out. The Tory core vote of the over 60s generally turns out in all weathers,but Labour's better ground game in the key marginals may even that out.antifrank said:
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.Grandiose said:antifrank said:That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.0 -
What has changed to give this poll lead?
Seems a bit weird.
Not helpful to Ed on the day of his manifesto launch though.0 -
@currystar
'Where is NicK Palmer and what does he think about the right wing manifesto'
He's out canvassing in a Tory ward and already found five Con to Lab switchers.0 -
They phoned up 90 people in Scotland, and found 9 Labour voters.
Careful. You are displaying the early symptoms of a bout of surgitis.0 -
The last time I decided that an ICM poll was an outlier was when it showed the Cons on 36 with a 4 point lead a couple of months ago, in the end all of the other polls moved in line with that picture. I don't want to rule this poll as an outlier too quickly.SeanT said:I'm calling this a rogue poll (even tho I like it - so I'm not breaking the Golden Rule), however as it is ICM we can't just junk it.
So. It suggests to me an actual Tory lead of 2-3%. Cameron can still win this.
I also don't see evidence of a high Tory sample, the 2010 vote shares are pretty much in line with the result. The Scotland subsample looks very strange though.0 -
England now 1-1. Trott caught at slip.0
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New Thread0
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Jonathon Trott = Ed Miliband
Reports of his comeback were exaggerated.0 -
I find it difficult to believe the Green and UKIP and Scottish poll figures..
It's beginning to look like the pollsters are struggling to cope with the complexities of a multi-party system - but who is right and who is wrong?0 -
May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/5876160650536632330 -
OGH normally has up the Eng and Wales figures..wonder what they are on this?0
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The margin of error on the subsamples is huge. You can't use them to decide whether a poll is rubbish or not.Brom said:UKIP outpolled by Greens in the North. Tories ahead of Labour in the North and Labour ahead of Tories in the Midlands. ICM should have buried this one out of embarrassment!
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