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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    It's more: the Tories cut because they believe in a small state and so will always look to reduce its role; Labour cuts only because it has to and will always look to cut as little as possible. That seems to me to be a perfectly credible philosophical difference - albeit one that both parties choose to wrap up in highly emotive language.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I can't quite believe Dave signed off the ID4A&E guff. Almost makes me want to vote LD...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Preston retweeted
    Rod Sherrin ‏@SherrinThePain 10m10 minutes ago
    BBC News - Trio defect from Lib Dems to UKIP http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-32283121

    Three district councillors.
    A reminder, perhaps, that there has been no flood of defections, even post-Rochester.
  • No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Can you please give us a list of the cuts that the coalition has made over the last five years that the Labour Party supported and did not oppose or vote against?

    Why on earth would Labour support cuts made by the Coalition? A better question would be: what cuts has Labour proposed? That's the credibility issue right there, not whether they have back government cuts.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    rogerh said:

    An 8% Populus is not good for LD's.A lot now hinges on ICM. Chance for it to have double figures for LD's and UKIP pushed into 4th place.

    Wasn't the last poll Scotland only?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    Thought the same about the "Supreme Court". Borne of a complete lack of self-confidence in British culture and history and an inferiority complex when it comes to the Americans.
    I'm not surprised that there is such a lack of self-confidence when even our own esteemed Nick Palmer can write a sentence such as this (FPT):-

    "I think that guest speakers do the job better than study of historical thinkers - what Tom Paine or Voltaire or Marx thought in a very different context seems a bit irrelevant...."

    That is one of the silliest statements I've seen an intelligent man write. All these people struggled with the same dilemmas as we do now and understanding how they thought about those dilemmas and tried to resolve them has much to teach us. Any good teacher should be able to make this interesting, as indeed my own history teachers and lecturers at university did.

    To take the area I work in, I would make a study of economic history essential for those in finance. Understanding the cycles of greed and stupidity and hubris which have accompanied every madcap scheme and boom/bust since (at least) the Tulip Mania might give them a better perspective on fancy risk management algorithms.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    I think Ed has made an error of advertising Labour cuts today. The reason Labour have recovered in the poll over the last couple of weeks is because they seemed to have become an anti-cuts/austerity party trying to maximise the turnout of their 35%. The mere mention of cuts has always driven this group into the arms of other parties.

    Strategically poor from Labour to mention cuts today. It should have been a few numbers and statistics in an appendix for a few financial journalists to get worked up about.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Pong said:

    I can't quite believe Dave signed off the ID4A&E guff. Almost makes me want to vote LD...

    It's so ridiculous it can't possibly be correct.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Laura Kuenssberg
    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    'What are you going to say about the deficit, anything?'

    'Erm no not yet'

    'But don't you have to say something?'

    'We don't really think so'

    'But if you don't say something then for the next five years the Conservatives will slam you for borrowing'

    'Erm, we're not planning on it, our economic plan will be better'

    'But don't you think you'll have to say something, sometime?'

    'Erm...'

    About four and a half years ago this is roughly the conversation I had with a colleague and one of Ed Miliband's team. The other reporter and I were shall we say, rather surprised that this was the position the new Labour leadership had decided to take.

    They had strongly held beliefs that their economic arguments were better and didn't want to be pushed into apologising or acknowledging mistakes they hadn't made.

    Their conviction was that there was no need for Labour to make a bold statement on borrowing. Although there were many (including David Miliband) who believed the opposite and warned that the party had to be clearer about mistakes it might have made and indeed how they planned to pay off the national debt and worried, that the Tories would have too easy a time in the absence of Labour tackling the issue head on.

    Fast forward to April 2015, and Labour's big manifesto idea is to lock themselves into a promise on borrowing. The whys and wherefores of the particular position will be debated endlessly.

    But the political calculation to sell a tough message, at the last minute, may struggle to convince.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-32286006
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    Curses of the new thread:


    12:14PM
    ydoethur said:

    » show previous quotes
    Cyclefree said:
    Teaching British history and the arguments of political thinkers and writers like Locke, Hobbes, Mill, Wilkes, Paine, Burke and Orwell would do far more.

    Not sure Wilkes or Paine are good examples - neither were exactly perfectly behaved and Paine in particular had a bit of a penchant for violence and terrorism. Locke, Mill (and Bentham) were both very arrogant, but neither said anything new or meaningful. Burke might be a better example - but at the same time, he was prone to angry outbursts that might not exactly encourage rational thought.

    As for Enlightenment values - I teach the French Revolution and Soviet Russia. They are both based on those values and they are both damning indictments of the logical results of them. As a result the idea of teaching 'values' leaves me fairly uneasy.

    What I would rather see is a commitment to uphold and promote the value of democracy and the rule of law. I'm happy to go with that because it's (a) simple to understand and (b) allows for some flexibility as the law changes.

    In response to ydoethur:

    I wasn't suggesting teaching them as exemplars of moral behaviour but I do think that to understand why we think the way we do we need to understand what people in our past have said, why they said it and how those ideas have developed and been taken up by others.

    Re Enlightenment ideasI think the Russian revolution is an example of a reaction to Western liberalism rather than being based on its concepts. I would say the same about the French revolution as well. France is one country where the concept of liberalism as we understand it here is not really understood at all.

    Personally I think the ideas that developed from the time of the Civil War onwards and in the 18th century (based on earlier ideas of course) and which were taken up, in part, by the American revolutionaries are tremendously interesting and, IMO, essential to an understanding of British history and politics, as well as European and other history, and where we are today.

    Tom Paine's "Rights of Man" is a great political book. Well worth reading as it has aged well.
    Agree wholeheartedly. There was a very good programme on Paine by Melvyn Bragg a few months back.



  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeK said:

    1:53PM
    http://www.itv.com/news/london/2015-04-13/nigel-farage-is-the-latest-headline-act-at-a-famous-essex-nightspot/

    Nigel Farage will follow in the footsteps of stand-up comedians and darts players to become the latest headline act at a famous Essex nightspot.

    I live five mins away and was going to go... but I have got 7 a side at 830

    Freeing up seats for the unconverted!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MaxPB said:

    I think Ed has made an error of advertising Labour cuts today. The reason Labour have recovered in the poll over the last couple of weeks is because they seemed to have become an anti-cuts/austerity party trying to maximise the turnout of their 35%. The mere mention of cuts has always driven this group into the arms of other parties.

    Strategically poor from Labour to mention cuts today. It should have been a few numbers and statistics in an appendix for a few financial journalists to get worked up about.

    It's that old question: should the Tories try to fight on the NHS, or minimise the issue? Labour very much softpeddling on law and order, for example. Choose the game to your own advantage or play theirs and win by doing OK?
  • Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
    I might do a variation of the chant I heard back in 2011 in Manchester.

    "The Tories, put the "n" in cuts"

    I had to listen to that for 4 hours as the soap dodgers, workshy SWP protested outside.

    I wasn't allowed to throw soap, drink champagne or burn £50 notes at them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The PUN of the day:

    Douglas Carswell retweeted
    The Gazette ‏@TheGazette 1h1 hour ago
    Farage and Carswell visit Clacton hinge factory in search for swing vote! http://dlvr.it/9Mv5ym
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimesNewsdesk: Miliband’s bid for economic credibility shot down by IFS
    http://t.co/0oGmFvQWdR
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Can you please give us a list of the cuts that the coalition has made over the last five years that the Labour Party supported and did not oppose or vote against?

    Why on earth would Labour support cuts made by the Coalition? A better question would be: what cuts has Labour proposed? That's the credibility issue right there, not whether they have back government cuts.

    So you can't list any, and nor can you list any cuts they've proposed either.

    You rightly point out the credibility issue: Labour say cuts have to be made whilst opposing all and every cut the coalition has been made, and proposing none of their own.

    It's ludicrous.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
    I can almost see SPQB now, where DC pretends he doesn't know what it stands for.
  • No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    I love the Star Trek refs in Fringe. And we've just had a corker with Mark Hamill in The Flash that made me :smiley:

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Following on from another Dave's comments about the terms of the Tory defectors, I expect that today is Nigel Farage's contractual obligation day in Clacton. It now looks superfluous, but I'm sure it didn't in August.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I reckon Murphy might have had a hand in this manifesto.

    He knows how f*cked Labour are in Scotland and just about the only constituency this manifesto might go down well in is err

    His own xD
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    It's more: the Tories cut because they believe in a small state and so will always look to reduce its role; Labour cuts only because it has to and will always look to cut as little as possible. That seems to me to be a perfectly credible philosophical difference - albeit one that both parties choose to wrap up in highly emotive language.
    Perfectly true: that is the philosophical difference, except that the Tories have not been making the case for a smaller state at all. They've been making the case for a strong economy to pay for the big state. The argument has been about how to run the economy and finance the state not about what the state should do and be.

  • Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Preston retweeted
    Rod Sherrin ‏@SherrinThePain 10m10 minutes ago
    BBC News - Trio defect from Lib Dems to UKIP http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-32283121

    Three district councillors.
    A reminder, perhaps, that there has been no flood of defections, even post-Rochester.
    Those Tory MP defectors who were standing down at the election anyway sure are leaving it late aren't they?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Grandiose said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Ed has made an error of advertising Labour cuts today. The reason Labour have recovered in the poll over the last couple of weeks is because they seemed to have become an anti-cuts/austerity party trying to maximise the turnout of their 35%. The mere mention of cuts has always driven this group into the arms of other parties.

    Strategically poor from Labour to mention cuts today. It should have been a few numbers and statistics in an appendix for a few financial journalists to get worked up about.

    It's that old question: should the Tories try to fight on the NHS, or minimise the issue? Labour very much softpeddling on law and order, for example. Choose the game to your own advantage or play theirs and win by doing OK?
    Yes, well we saw how poor the polling is for the Tories on the NHS despite the £8bn pledge. I think that pledge is mostly about disarming Labour's line on it rather than trying to win on the NHS. The advantage of money spending pledges is that they rarely drive voters away, if anything spending more on the NHS is definitely a vote winner. If Labour start an arms race on who is going to cut what it will be very stupid as it is a fight they can't win, and if they try and win they will lose lots of support among the anti-austerity crowd.

    I really think there are no votes for Labour in fiscal rectitude and every time they bring it up it just reminds people that Labour are not to be trusted on the economy. The numbers are there for them to win without it. Their 35% don't care about a stronger economy, they want a society with fewer rich people and higher taxes for ordinary people similar to Scandinavia.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Did we ever decide that he was faking re Magna Carta? It seemed so unlikely
    Grandiose said:

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
    I can almost see SPQB now, where DC pretends he doesn't know what it stands for.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
    I might do a variation of the chant I heard back in 2011 in Manchester.

    "The Tories, put the "n" in cuts"

    I had to listen to that for 4 hours as the soap dodgers, workshy SWP protested outside.

    I wasn't allowed to throw soap, drink champagne or burn £50 notes at them.
    It's amazing how some people truly think the Tories are evil and that gives them licence to play out their most base instincts and behaviours on them.

    I was at Manchester in 2009 and walked out of a late night event with a friend at the main hotel. We got a mouth full of abuse and insults from some bearded student Lefties nearby. I smiled at them, but my friend politely engaged one of them in conversation, whilst a few of the other students looked on sheepishly.

    When I got taking to one of them it turned out he mainly hated the Tories because of what his Dad and family had said about them, and his friends had never challenged. I wanted to explore that further but the policeman came over and moved them on before asking us if we wanted to make any complaint.

    We didn't.
  • Grandiose said:

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
    I think, he's found UKIP, like all parties have their internal contradictions.

    That might frustrate him.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ouchtastic
    Scott_P said:

    Laura Kuenssberg
    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    'What are you going to say about the deficit, anything?'

    'Erm no not yet'

    'But don't you have to say something?'

    'We don't really think so'

    'But if you don't say something then for the next five years the Conservatives will slam you for borrowing'

    'Erm, we're not planning on it, our economic plan will be better'

    'But don't you think you'll have to say something, sometime?'

    'Erm...'

    About four and a half years ago this is roughly the conversation I had with a colleague and one of Ed Miliband's team. The other reporter and I were shall we say, rather surprised that this was the position the new Labour leadership had decided to take.

    They had strongly held beliefs that their economic arguments were better and didn't want to be pushed into apologising or acknowledging mistakes they hadn't made.

    Their conviction was that there was no need for Labour to make a bold statement on borrowing. Although there were many (including David Miliband) who believed the opposite and warned that the party had to be clearer about mistakes it might have made and indeed how they planned to pay off the national debt and worried, that the Tories would have too easy a time in the absence of Labour tackling the issue head on.

    Fast forward to April 2015, and Labour's big manifesto idea is to lock themselves into a promise on borrowing. The whys and wherefores of the particular position will be debated endlessly.

    But the political calculation to sell a tough message, at the last minute, may struggle to convince.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-32286006

  • Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
    I might do a variation of the chant I heard back in 2011 in Manchester.

    "The Tories, put the "n" in cuts"

    I had to listen to that for 4 hours as the soap dodgers, workshy SWP protested outside.

    I wasn't allowed to throw soap, drink champagne or burn £50 notes at them.
    It's amazing how some people truly think the Tories are evil and that gives them licence to play out their most base instincts and behaviours on them.

    I was at Manchester in 2009 and walked out of a late night event with a friend at the main hotel. We got a mouth full of abuse and insults from some bearded student Lefties nearby. I smiled at them, but my friend politely engaged one of them in conversation, whilst a few of the other students looked on sheepishly.

    When I got taking to one of them it turned out he mainly hated the Tories because of what his Dad and family had said about them, and his friends had never challenged. I wanted to explore that further but the policeman came over and moved them on before asking us if we wanted to make any complaint.

    We didn't.
    I've always found the SWP types funny. I shatter all their preconceptions.

    I nearly incited a riot with them a few years ago.

    They wanted me to sign a petition that wanted Tony Blair charged for lying/war crimes over Iraq.

    I said, I'd gladly sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Plato said:

    Did we ever decide that he was faking re Magna Carta? It seemed so unlikely

    Grandiose said:

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
    I can almost see SPQB now, where DC pretends he doesn't know what it stands for.
    No real conclusion. Both possible explanations seem unlikely, but one must be the truth.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Grandiose said:

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
    I think, he's found UKIP, like all parties have their internal contradictions.

    That might frustrate him.
    He's the new John Marek, he will be off to the English Democrats next
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Institute of Economic Affairs: "Labour manifesto lacks seriousness on deficit reduction." "Politicians need to be honest about their plans."
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    edited April 2015
    "David Cameron has staged his first on-camera walkabout of the campaign - and was urged to avoid “name calling” tactics against Ed Miliband.

    The prime minister took to the streets of Alnwick, in the Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency, in a bid to woo voters, where one woman told him: “I don’t like the name calling in politics ... Be a good boy.”

    Cameron bought some sausages at Turnbull’s butchers in the town and chatted with shoppers during the 15 minute stroll.

    But he was also serenaded by a man with a ukulele who sang that he should “fuck off back to Eton”.


    Looks like he's deploying the Major '92 strategy.

    He'll be cracking out the soapbox and eyeing up Edwina Currie next!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    It's more: the Tories cut because they believe in a small state and so will always look to reduce its role; Labour cuts only because it has to and will always look to cut as little as possible. That seems to me to be a perfectly credible philosophical difference - albeit one that both parties choose to wrap up in highly emotive language.
    Perfectly true: that is the philosophical difference, except that the Tories have not been making the case for a smaller state at all. They've been making the case for a strong economy to pay for the big state. The argument has been about how to run the economy and finance the state not about what the state should do and be.

    Bang on the money. And that, fundamentally, is the Cameron project problem: they haven't moved the values and principles argument away from Labour's turf, and onto their own, which has meant they are permanently on the defensive, whilst voters feel they secretly have a different agenda anyway. And therefore don't trust them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Any idea when ICM is due?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Elephant Man?!

    Grandiose said:

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
    I think, he's found UKIP, like all parties have their internal contradictions.

    That might frustrate him.
    He's the new John Marek, he will be off to the English Democrats next
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    It's more: the Tories cut because they believe in a small state and so will always look to reduce its role; Labour cuts only because it has to and will always look to cut as little as possible. That seems to me to be a perfectly credible philosophical difference - albeit one that both parties choose to wrap up in highly emotive language.
    Perfectly true: that is the philosophical difference, except that the Tories have not been making the case for a smaller state at all. They've been making the case for a strong economy to pay for the big state. The argument has been about how to run the economy and finance the state not about what the state should do and be.

    Bang on the money. And that, fundamentally, is the Cameron project problem: they haven't moved the values and principles argument away from Labour's turf, and onto their own, which has meant they are permanently on the defensive, whilst voters feel they secretly have a different agenda anyway. And therefore don't trust them.
    They've moved the agenda away from Brown's "all spending is good" to "only spending what you can afford is good". That's a major change for a nation addicted to the credit card.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited April 2015

    Any idea when ICM is due?

    Today, that is all we know.

    Before 4 pm would be ideal
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    "David Cameron has staged his first on-camera walkabout of the campaign - and was urged to avoid “name calling” tactics against Ed Miliband.

    The prime minister took to the streets of Alnwick, in the Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency, in a bid to woo voters, where one woman told him: “I don’t like the name calling in politics ... Be a good boy.”

    Cameron bought some sausages at Turnbull’s butchers in the town and chatted with shoppers during the 15 minute stroll.

    But he was also serenaded by a man with a ukulele who sang that he should “fuck off back to Eton”.


    Looks like he's deploying the Major '92 strategy.

    He'll be cracking out the soapbox and eyeing up Edwina Currie next!

    It's what he should have done weeks ago. Inevitably, as there was for Major, there will be organised opposition (containing a few partisan idiots) to each and every one of his visits, made much easier now by social media.

    But most undecided people who are genuinely curious will be polite, engage and ask him something if they want to, or smile politely, stay silent and avoid him if they don't like him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Senate is a really interesting idea. Especially if it limits itself to just 100 representatives.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
    I might do a variation of the chant I heard back in 2011 in Manchester.

    "The Tories, put the "n" in cuts"

    I had to listen to that for 4 hours as the soap dodgers, workshy SWP protested outside.

    I wasn't allowed to throw soap, drink champagne or burn £50 notes at them.
    It's amazing how some people truly think the Tories are evil and that gives them licence to play out their most base instincts and behaviours on them.

    I was at Manchester in 2009 and walked out of a late night event with a friend at the main hotel. We got a mouth full of abuse and insults from some bearded student Lefties nearby. I smiled at them, but my friend politely engaged one of them in conversation, whilst a few of the other students looked on sheepishly.

    When I got taking to one of them it turned out he mainly hated the Tories because of what his Dad and family had said about them, and his friends had never challenged. I wanted to explore that further but the policeman came over and moved them on before asking us if we wanted to make any complaint.

    We didn't.
    I've always found the SWP types funny. I shatter all their preconceptions.

    I nearly incited a riot with them a few years ago.

    They wanted me to sign a petition that wanted Tony Blair charged for lying/war crimes over Iraq.

    I said, I'd gladly sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq.
    Lol!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, I have a bet lurking somewhere on the House of Lords being reformed before 2020. So I like this proposal.

    More generally, the manifesto seems to show Ed Balls very much in the ascendant in the Labour party at present. He now looks irreplaceable in the finance role should Labour win the election. You can get 11/8 with both Ladbrokes and Paddy Power on him being next Chancellor, which is substantially better than the evens that you can get on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister. I think the difference is well worth the additional risk and I'm on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    I love the Star Trek refs in Fringe. And we've just had a corker with Mark Hamill in The Flash that made me :smiley:

    I really hate the name Senate. So unBritish.

    I don't have a problem with a reformed 2nd chamber, but why can't there be called Lord-Lieutenants or LMP (Lord member of parliament) ?

    "Imperial Senate" like in Star Wars!

    Actually in an alternate history timeline, could have been set up in 1931 by the Statute of Westminster. Then George Lucas could have used that August Body as the inspiration for the "Imperial Senate" in the Star Wars universe!
    I think the only other time I can remember him being anything other than Luke Skywalker was when he voiced The Joker in one of the recent-ish Batman cartoons.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? They've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".


    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.
    TSE might put it slightly differently: Tory cutting out of Reckless = very good.
    I might do a variation of the chant I heard back in 2011 in Manchester.

    "The Tories, put the "n" in cuts"

    I had to listen to that for 4 hours as the soap dodgers, workshy SWP protested outside.

    I wasn't allowed to throw soap, drink champagne or burn £50 notes at them.
    It's amazing how some people truly think the Tories are evil and that gives them licence to play out their most base instincts and behaviours on them.

    I was at Manchester in 2009 and walked out of a late night event with a friend at the main hotel. We got a mouth full of abuse and insults from some bearded student Lefties nearby. I smiled at them, but my friend politely engaged one of them in conversation, whilst a few of the other students looked on sheepishly.

    When I got taking to one of them it turned out he mainly hated the Tories because of what his Dad and family had said about them, and his friends had never challenged. I wanted to explore that further but the policeman came over and moved them on before asking us if we wanted to make any complaint.

    We didn't.
    I've always found the SWP types funny. I shatter all their preconceptions.

    I nearly incited a riot with them a few years ago.

    They wanted me to sign a petition that wanted Tony Blair charged for lying/war crimes over Iraq.

    I said, I'd gladly sign it, Blair lied to me, I was promised cheaper oil if we invaded Iraq.
    Whe the children were younger we used to take them for swimming lessons at the ULU pool. There used to be students protesting outside about Iraq and one of them approached my husband asking him to sign a petition about removing UK/US troops from Iraq.

    "Quite right" my husband said.

    The student beamed at him.

    "Move them to Iran", he went on.

    He moved pretty smartly into the building at that point!
  • antifrank said:

    On topic, I have a bet lurking somewhere on the House of Lords being reformed before 2020. So I like this proposal.

    More generally, the manifesto seems to show Ed Balls very much in the ascendant in the Labour party at present. He now looks irreplaceable in the finance role should Labour win the election. You can get 11/8 with both Ladbrokes and Paddy Power on him being next Chancellor, which is substantially better than the evens that you can get on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister. I think the difference is well worth the additional risk and I'm on.

    And just think of all the PB threads that will be dominated by electoral reform.

    Win win
  • Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Their 35% don't care about a stronger economy, they want a society with fewer rich people and higher taxes for ordinary people similar to Scandinavia.

    trouble is, they are also not too keen on actually turning out to vote. Especially in a system where you have to register first.
  • Flood warning issued for Sheffield as someone is about to piss himself laughing
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

    Christ all mighty.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

    OMG..as my daughter would say..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    Senate is a really interesting idea. Especially if it limits itself to just 100 representatives.

    It would keep MPs and Parliament generally very busy with something of vital importance to themselves at a time when the government is unlikely to be able to indulge itself in grand schemes that actually make any difference to anyone in the real world.

    It's a fabulous idea.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Grandiose said:

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
    I think, he's found UKIP, like all parties have their internal contradictions.

    That might frustrate him.
    Carswell's problem is that he is an egomaniac with little idea how to turn that to his advantage - so he has a lot of ability which will never be realised because he finds it impossible to believe his ideas aren't the best way ever conceived by anybody in the history of mankind - no party can contain him and he will sit as an independent from May 8th until he decides to leave parliament
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Plato said:

    The Elephant Man?!

    Grandiose said:

    No free owls in the Labour manifesto.

    Not voting Labour now

    Or any mention of the story in yesterday's chip paper re the mere £7.5bn anti-avoidance measures.
    Douglas Carswell seems a bit cranky on twitter, because Rob Ford finds it odd that Farage has come to Clacton today.

    I'm finding it terribly amusing.
    you can be so childish...


    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs
    Clacton is UKIP's only (probably) safe seat. Seems a bit of a waste of a vital campaign day for Farage to hang around there.

    Nick Barlow‏@nickjbarlow·45m45 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs but if he didn't go, wouldn't press ask 'why aren't you helping Carswell?'

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·14m14 minutes ago
    @nickjbarlow @robfordmancs indeed

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·13m13 minutes ago
    @DouglasCarswell @nickjbarlow Odd of you to worry about what the Westminster press think Douglas

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·10m10 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @nickjbarlow I don't. Or indeed academics
    I was tempted to reply to Carswell with the message "U OK hun?"
    Anyone get the sense his defection hasn't turned out quite the way he wanted?
    Not just you.

    I suppose that was inevitable if you have to keep on meeting Kipper activists on a daily basis.
    On the one hand Carswell does frequently look out of place. On the other hand, he's a smart chap, and have worked that out before. Unless he was relying on his own influence by this stage to move UKIP towards him.
    I think, he's found UKIP, like all parties have their internal contradictions.

    That might frustrate him.
    He's the new John Marek, he will be off to the English Democrats next
    No dear girl, John Marek, Lab MP then independent AM then leader of Forward Wales and now a Conservative!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

    Wow.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    This is going to be amusing.

    Sits back with popcorn.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    Here's where I diverge from @Casino_Royale the journey is a long one and frustrated shortcuts don't work in the Land of Reputation Management. It takes years and trying to do it on the cheap ends in failure. I did this job for decades and despair at how little the job is understood. If it was simple, everyone would do it every few months. Think about it.

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Do Labour even realise what they've done? ey've now blown up one of their main attack lines for getting reluctant Labour voters to the polls: "just think of the damage the Tories will do to public services with reckless cuts".

    Totally disagree. Labour has been saying the same thing for a few years: cuts do have to be made but they can be made better, they can be made over a long time frame and they do not have to be driven by ideology. That may or may not be bollocks, but it fits exactly with what has been said today.

    A reckless cut does not have to be the same as a cut - and most voters recognise that. Labour's issue is much more about whether they sound credible than whether they are alienating a large swathe of voters who might go out and back an end to austerity but would prefer a Tory government to make cuts than a Labour one.

    Tory cuts = Reckless, Bad.

    Labour cuts = Gentle, Good.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    It's more: the Tories cut because they believe in a small state and so will always look to reduce its role; Labour cuts only because it has to and will always look to cut as little as possible. That seems to me to be a perfectly credible philosophical difference - albeit one that both parties choose to wrap up in highly emotive language.
    Perfectly true: that is the philosophical difference, except that the Tories have not been making the case for a smaller state at all. They've been making the case for a strong economy to pay for the big state. The argument has been about how to run the economy and finance the state not about what the state should do and be.

    Bang on the money. And that, fundamentally, is the Cameron project problem: they haven't moved the values and principles argument away from Labour's turf, and onto their own, which has meant they are permanently on the defensive, whilst voters feel they secretly have a different agenda anyway. And therefore don't trust them.
    They've moved the agenda away from Brown's "all spending is good" to "only spending what you can afford is good". That's a major change for a nation addicted to the credit card.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Con GAIN Renfrewshire! Lolol. Polling is somewhat volatile!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Kaboom
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

    Worrying.

    At this rate UKIP might undershoot my bet on 5% to 10%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gold standard!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2015
    MaxPB said:

    I think Ed has made an error of advertising Labour cuts today. The reason Labour have recovered in the poll over the last couple of weeks is because they seemed to have become an anti-cuts/austerity party trying to maximise the turnout of their 35%. The mere mention of cuts has always driven this group into the arms of other parties.

    The SNP will certainly seize it - it does look like they are giving up on Scotland
    - Jim no cuts Murphy hung out to dry......
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Bloody bloody hell. WTF is going on?!
  • Baxtering that poll gives the Tories a majority of 8

    Even before adjusting for Scotland
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The day the polls turned - into Jack's ARSE.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Pollsters eh... 6 pt lab lead, now 6pt Tory lead

    39% looks toppish to say the least for the tories, no?

    When is the last time they have been on 39%??
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.

    It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.

    This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Still, announcing cuts to your core at six points behind is surely a winner?!
    Greens for third? Go Natalie!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pppolitics: Labour unveil ‘Budget Responsibility Lock’. Voters concerned about giving Ed Balls ‘Budget Responsibility Keys’.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

    Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

    Rubbish! Outlier! Surely!

    Labour just had a week-end (12th April) lead of 1.2% in ELBOW!

    :lol:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Here's your straws

    "Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    That gives a Conservative majority of 8, according to Baxter.

    I think it's something of an outlier, but it should help steady Conservative nerves.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Flood warning issued for Sheffield as someone is about to piss himself laughing

    "They'll be dancing in the streets of Hallam tonight!" :sunglasses:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    What do you mean "even before adjusting for Scotland"? Scotland wouldn't affect how many seats the Tories get.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Is this a last ditch attempt by the Graun to shock the faithful into turning out?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Is this a last ditch attempt by the Graun to shock the faithful into turning out?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    antifrank said:

    That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.

    It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.

    This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.


    Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228

    Flood warning issued for Sheffield as someone is about to piss himself laughing

    More golden shower than Gold Standard!
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Wtf
  • Personal ratings


    The survey gives Cameron a remarkably strong net personal rating of +18, with 52% of voters rating him as doing a good job, and only 34% suggesting he is doing badly. This is by some way the prime minister’s strongest showing with ICM since his honeymoon, in August 2010, since when he has mostly been scoring in modestly negative territory. For example, Cameron’s net score was -3 last November.

    Cameron’s personal rating remains comfortably ahead of Ed Miliband’s. The Labour leader recovers a touch from a net -42 last November, but still languishes on -30. Cameron’s standing is also streets ahead of that of all the other political leaders: Clegg is on -20; Nigel Farage on –16; Natalie Bennett of the Greens on –6. Only Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National party (SNP) scores positively, with a net +12.

    Voter preferences
    On the economy, too, if the survey is right, the Conservatives are walking away with the argument. Cameron and George Osborne, the chancellor, are the more “trusted team to run the economy properly” for 44% of voters, compared to just 17% who would rather trust Miliband and the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, and 39% who said they would trust neither team.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: ICM "gold standard" poll shows depth of Tory crisis. Oh...
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    SeanT said:

    I can also vouch for Bob Sykes. He and I were just about the only PB rightwingers who correctly called the last GE result: a NOM Tory government.

    However I think he is entirely wrong about the Sturgeon/Salmond Ed Miliband Tory breastkerchief attack meme (phew, got there in the end) - it is one of the rare Tory elections tactics which is working. Read the press and Labour are clearly worried by this assault, and have found that it resonates with voters, hence statements like Umunna's today, re Jim Murphy.

    This GE is still winnable for Cameron (tho I doubt he'll succeed), if he focuses on a simple message. Labour will crash the bus again, as Sturgeon tries to grab the steering wheel. They will also crash the property market, nationwide.

    Hammer that home. Daily.

    It's an important message but it needs proper focus, to the right crowd.

    It seems like the Tories think they've found something to win them the election. It might play well in some seats but I don't think Pendle is really one of them.

    I'd hammer home that a vote for UKIP means more Labour MPS = Ed in No 10 and no referendum. I don't particularly support the Tory approach on the EU but I do want a Tory Govt and the strength of UKIP is the single biggest impediment to that happening, by a country mile.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    hmm YG / ICM difference getting difficult to make sense of but Dave will enjoy being on 39% in a poll the Guardian might find space for in G2 between ads for holiday cottages in the Dordogne
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    antifrank said:

    That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.
    Personally antifrank? Or in betting terms?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    Clear outlier. But.... HAHAHAHAHA

    The Guardian should make entertaining reading for the next 12 hours.

    "The day the Polls Moved" (C)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    Bang on the money. And that, fundamentally, is the Cameron project problem: they haven't moved the values and principles argument away from Labour's turf, and onto their own, which has meant they are permanently on the defensive, whilst voters feel they secretly have a different agenda anyway. And therefore don't trust them.

    Absolutely right. The Conservatives have failed to make the argument for capitalism and wealth creation. They have not successfully shown that wealth creation is a key part of this nation and that we should welcome high net worth individuals and entrepreneurs into the country so we can create jobs.

    The issue boils down to the fact that the Tories are in favour of job creation, but will not stand up for the job creators and act like it all happens by magic. Labour being anti-wealth is a return to old Labour values but the Tories haven't given a credible argument in favour of wealth creation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited April 2015

    Bloody bloody hell. WTF is going on?!

    Honestly there was a pro-Lab spike in ELBOW around Xmas too.

    Lab lead 14th Dec = 0.9
    Lab lead Xmas week = 2.6
    Lab lead 11th Jan = 1.1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    That gives a Conservative majority of 8, according to Baxter.

    I think it's something of an outlier, but it should help steady Conservative nerves.

    My nerves are all over the place. It's a good job I never became a politican. I don't have the constitution for it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    What do you mean "even before adjusting for Scotland"? Scotland wouldn't affect how many seats the Tories get.
    Labour on about 240 - would be profitable for me !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.

    It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.

    This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.

    6 weeks before last years Euros ICM had Labour on 36% and UKIP in 3rd on 20%
    4 weeks later they had the Conservatives in the lead

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
  • Should have seen it coming, Mike said he was busy, and asked me to do a thread on ICM/Ashcroft when they came out.
This discussion has been closed.