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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one…

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  • Yay for electoral reform
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Repost from end of prev thread:


    I have never before done as much as skim-read a Labour GE manifesto.

    But I have speed-read this one, and I have to say, as someone who is very much a "One Nation Tory", I find it hard to see much in it that scares the horses, and much of which I approve. Indeed, there are many things I know will simply not be in the Tory manifesto.

    I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years as regular PBers will know.

    Given that some of the few Tory announcements made already either unenthuse me or I disagree with them as priorities, I do increasingly wonder whether 5 years of Labour accompanied by a Boris-led renewal and reunion of the centre-right (patently impossible under Cameron) might be in the best interests of everyone?

    And with that in mind, perhaps a Labour Government not in hock to the nationalists would be preferable.

    Gosh, me contemplating voting Labour. What is the world coming to?

    Dave - you need to do something very special tomorrow and beyond. You are failing to excite and enthuse me, so god knows what message you're sending to the key voters you need to retain/win over!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Oh dear and I thought it was all over after last night's YouGov - when is the next blind panic due from the wets?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    House of Lords reform is on the SNP agenda. Sop to the nats there.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    I agree with Nick.
  • Given that Tory leads are rarer then Hen's teeth with Populus, I'd say it's a pretty good poll for them.

    ICM and Ashcroft will be interesting - is there another Com-Res due this week?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Paul Johnson IFS:'no additional clarity' from Lab today on tax/spend."We literally wd not know what we're voting for if we voted for Labour"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Follow

    RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one...
    12:58 PM - 13 Apr 2015

    I can't wait till the whole of southern England gets 'gerrymandered' into a couple of seats :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Populus do like to keep changing their methodology.

    Does this gender shenanigans have any effect on VI ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nickdebois: Interesting that yesterday's much vaunted £7.5bn from tax avoidance isn't even in Lab manifesto.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardley 4m4 minutes ago
    Line up for BBC debate on Thursday announced (left- right): Miliband, Wood, Bennett, Sturgeon, Farage
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.

    One Tory-shire, 1,000 Labour Statelets...
  • Given that Tory leads are rarer then Hen's teeth with Populus, I'd say it's a pretty good poll for them.

    ICM and Ashcroft will be interesting - is there another Com-Res due this week?
    I'm hopeful we will get ComRes this week.

    But we're definitely getting ICM, Lord A today and Ipsos Mori later on this week
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Interesting change - I'd have thought it should benefit Labour a tad but it hasn't done so in today's poll. Maybe 'wimmin' are trending blue :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.

    Independence for the Kingdom Of East Anglia! Forth Wuffingas!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scottish certain to vote @ 70%.

    I'm hoping these Nats do show up !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour manifesto:

    British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies will be required to produce publicly available registries of the real owners of companies based there.

    How, exactly?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Some real money starting to appear on the betfair next PM market, but the odds still very skewed to DC.

    I'd have it down as something like;

    EdM 66%
    DC 32%
    Someone else 2%

    What probabilities do the other serious punters assign?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    Labour manifesto:

    British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies will be required to produce publicly available registries of the real owners of companies based there.

    How, exactly?

    ABC Co. Ltd is a 100% owned subsidiary of XYZ Co of Lichtenstein.

    Any the wiser?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.

    No doubt you'd use Anglo-Saxon language to describe the new Heptarchy ...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Artist said:

    Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardley 4m4 minutes ago
    Line up for BBC debate on Thursday announced (left- right): Miliband, Wood, Bennett, Sturgeon, Farage

    Sturgeon has had three debates since the last one, and at times the questioning has been downright hostile. She has been the target in most of them.

    Also Murphy's quiet/preachy/angry tones are enough to wind anyone up in a way that Miliband isn't.

    She'll be looking forward to this debate I suspect.
  • Repost from end of prev thread:


    I have never before done as much as skim-read a Labour GE manifesto.

    But I have speed-read this one, and I have to say, as someone who is very much a "One Nation Tory", I find it hard to see much in it that scares the horses, and much of which I approve. Indeed, there are many things I know will simply not be in the Tory manifesto.

    I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years as regular PBers will know.

    Given that some of the few Tory announcements made already either unenthuse me or I disagree with them as priorities, I do increasingly wonder whether 5 years of Labour accompanied by a Boris-led renewal and reunion of the centre-right (patently impossible under Cameron) might be in the best interests of everyone?

    And with that in mind, perhaps a Labour Government not in hock to the nationalists would be preferable.

    Gosh, me contemplating voting Labour. What is the world coming to?

    Dave - you need to do something very special tomorrow and beyond. You are failing to excite and enthuse me, so god knows what message you're sending to the key voters you need to retain/win over!

    I couldn't agree more (though I would never dream of voting Labour).

    Having left the UK some years ago I've been observing the run up to this election with a detached fascination. The country is undoubtedly sleepwalking into a Miliband-led government. One can only hope that when the Right is reunited, under Boris or whoever, there is a country left to govern.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Curses of the new thread:


    12:14PM
    ydoethur said:

    » show previous quotes
    Cyclefree said:
    Teaching British history and the arguments of political thinkers and writers like Locke, Hobbes, Mill, Wilkes, Paine, Burke and Orwell would do far more.

    Not sure Wilkes or Paine are good examples - neither were exactly perfectly behaved and Paine in particular had a bit of a penchant for violence and terrorism. Locke, Mill (and Bentham) were both very arrogant, but neither said anything new or meaningful. Burke might be a better example - but at the same time, he was prone to angry outbursts that might not exactly encourage rational thought.

    As for Enlightenment values - I teach the French Revolution and Soviet Russia. They are both based on those values and they are both damning indictments of the logical results of them. As a result the idea of teaching 'values' leaves me fairly uneasy.

    What I would rather see is a commitment to uphold and promote the value of democracy and the rule of law. I'm happy to go with that because it's (a) simple to understand and (b) allows for some flexibility as the law changes.

    In response to ydoethur:

    I wasn't suggesting teaching them as exemplars of moral behaviour but I do think that to understand why we think the way we do we need to understand what people in our past have said, why they said it and how those ideas have developed and been taken up by others.

    Re Enlightenment ideasI think the Russian revolution is an example of a reaction to Western liberalism rather than being based on its concepts. I would say the same about the French revolution as well. France is one country where the concept of liberalism as we understand it here is not really understood at all.

    Personally I think the ideas that developed from the time of the Civil War onwards and in the 18th century (based on earlier ideas of course) and which were taken up, in part, by the American revolutionaries are tremendously interesting and, IMO, essential to an understanding of British history and politics, as well as European and other history, and where we are today.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Carnyx, I'd view such an arrangement with the same fondness with which I would welcome a prolonged bout of violent diarrhoea.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Artist said:

    Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardley 4m4 minutes ago
    Line up for BBC debate on Thursday announced (left- right): Miliband, Wood, Bennett, Sturgeon, Farage

    Sturgeon has had three debates since the last one, and at times the questioning has been downright hostile. She has been the target in most of them.

    Also Murphy's quiet/preachy/angry tones are enough to wind anyone up in a way that Miliband isn't.

    She'll be looking forward to this debate I suspect.

    Another thing: Mr Murphy was saying at the last debate that Labour would not make any cuts [edit: in Scotland, IIRC]. To use his own favoured fitba metaphor, it's now not so wee an open goal just waiting for Ms Sturgeon ...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Ordinary polls for Labour so far today (TNS Scotland and Populus).

    ICM is the big one today - I'm nervous - are you?
  • Mr. Carnyx, I'd view such an arrangement with the same fondness with which I would welcome a prolonged bout of violent diarrhoea.

    Is an appealing a prospect as receiving a handjob from Edward Scissorhands
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.

    Sensible regions, with some sort of foundation in the shape of the local economy and culture would be great (in my view, I know you disagree), but if you read other parts of the manifesto there is reference to "city and county regions", so it looks like it could be a real dog's breakfast.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk
    Excellent charity, Richard.
  • murali_s said:

    Ordinary polls for Labour so far today (TNS Scotland and Populus).

    ICM is the big one today - I'm nervous - are you?

    I'm more looking forward to this week's Ipsos Mori

    If Ed has made progress on the leader ratings then it should show up in the gold standard of leader ratings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Eagles, I was very disappointed when I realised I had to cut that line from Temple [too modern], much as the line 'the sky was bluer than a drowning smurf' is delightful but doesn't really fit fantasy.

    Mr. Me, a dog's breakfast? You're too kind, unless you refer to a dog's breakfast after it's passed through the dog's digestive system.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I make 432/1289 = 33.51% by the way.

    Unless that itself is a rounded figure from 431.81+...
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    House of Lords being reformed is a perennial manifesto promise, but "A Senate of the Nations and Regions" is an interesting approach that could potentially provide a framework to solve current unresolved constitutional issues.

    Still, I really dislike the idea of an "English Devolution Act". I'm pretty fundamentally opposed to localism and the additional layers of bureaucracy involved. I feel its often used as a backdoor way to entrench right-wing values. For example, look at how the Tories claim localism... then freeze council budgets and issue diktats from up-high. That's how I feel "localism" ends up working in practice.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk

    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk

    There you go. All the best

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Umunna slapdown for Jim Murphy: "The leader of the Scottish Labour Party will not be in charge of the UK budget"

    Not good for labour north of the border
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!
  • Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Umunna slapdown for Jim Murphy: "The leader of the Scottish Labour Party will not be in charge of the UK budget"

    Not good for labour north of the border

    It is almost like Labour have given up on Scotland.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I fear that 'nations and regions' is unsubtle code for carving England up into regions, which would be utterly vile.

    Sensible regions, with some sort of foundation in the shape of the local economy and culture would be great (in my view, I know you disagree), but if you read other parts of the manifesto there is reference to "city and county regions", so it looks like it could be a real dog's breakfast.
    It depends on who choses the regions. My good friend Mr G Mander could be called in to redistrict them.

    Personally I always have grave suspicions about this sort of thing. Labour rigged the devolution referenda to ensure both Scotland and Wales devolved - with the aim of Labour voters in Glasgow and the Valleys ensuring that Labour remained in control of the two countries for ever. (Which was also why Durham became Unitary - the old pit-villages on the East coast overriding the more conservative west of the county.)

  • ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    I read it as a Labour lead, Mike and yourself read it as a Tory lead.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Labour manifesto (p 40):

    "invest £2.5 billion more that (sic) the Conservatives to recruit 8,000 more GPs, 20,000 more nurses and 3,000 more midwives"

    On top of the Tory £8bn/year? That's expensive

    http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/BritainCanBeBetter-TheLabourPartyManifesto2015.pdf
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Millsy said:

    Labour manifesto (p 40):

    "invest £2.5 billion more that (sic) the Conservatives to recruit 8,000 more GPs, 20,000 more nurses and 3,000 more midwives"

    On top of the Tory £8bn/year? That's expensive

    http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/BritainCanBeBetter-TheLabourPartyManifesto2015.pdf

    We'll recruit 1,000 more proofreaders than the Conservatives.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    England already has regions set up http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUTS_of_the_United_Kingdom . What the probability that these will be used by Labour to harmonise UK/ EU facilities.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2015

    Labour manifesto:

    British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies will be required to produce publicly available registries of the real owners of companies based there.

    How, exactly?

    They are notionally subject to the supremacy of the Westminster Parliament and the Colonial Laws Validity Act 1865. Nevertheless, it would be a grave, and perhaps unconstitutional interference with the overseas territories' autonomy to pass laws on a matter as trifling as the administration of trusts. What Labour haven't realised is that much property which is held on trust in certain overseas territories does not have a beneficial owner, so such a register is in many ways pointless. Furthermore, the Recognition of Trusts Act 1987 allows an Englishman to settle English property on such trusts for exclusively English purposes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    I read it as a Labour lead, Mike and yourself read it as a Tory lead.
    You're both applying reverse psychology to what you want the result to be.

    The simple truth is, we don't know.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited April 2015

    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    I read it as a Labour lead, Mike and yourself read it as a Tory lead.
    what time is ICM likely to come out
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The Labour Manifesto has one very interesting feature: the fact that the opening page - even before Ed's foreword - is about the 'Budget Responsibility Lock'.

    Leaving aside the question of how credible this is, it is interesting because it demonstrates that Labour think that the perception that they are fiscally irresponsible is their biggest weakness. In other words, Osborne has suceeded in moving the debate onto precisely the area that Labour don't want. It's very much at odds with their 'core vote' strategy - many Labour supporters will I think be bemused by the emphasis on the deficit - and of course also very much plays into the hands of the SNP and other parties of profligacy trying to poach votes from Labour's left.

    One thought does strike me: that page might be a last-minute addition. It's certainly very odd in terms of the structure of the document as a whole.

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy. IIRC, Hopi Sen was the only Labour supporter at the time who got it.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Repost from end of prev thread:


    I have never before done as much as skim-read a Labour GE manifesto.

    But I have speed-read this one, and I have to say, as someone who is very much a "One Nation Tory", I find it hard to see much in it that scares the horses, and much of which I approve. Indeed, there are many things I know will simply not be in the Tory manifesto.

    I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years as regular PBers will know.

    Given that some of the few Tory announcements made already either unenthuse me or I disagree with them as priorities, I do increasingly wonder whether 5 years of Labour accompanied by a Boris-led renewal and reunion of the centre-right (patently impossible under Cameron) might be in the best interests of everyone?

    And with that in mind, perhaps a Labour Government not in hock to the nationalists would be preferable.

    Gosh, me contemplating voting Labour. What is the world coming to?

    Dave - you need to do something very special tomorrow and beyond. You are failing to excite and enthuse me, so god knows what message you're sending to the key voters you need to retain/win over!


    (Also a repost...actually in reply to the one about tpries borrowing more than Lab etc etc zzz)


    They inherited a £156bn deficit. In order to not borrow as much as Labour, they would have had to cut this by ~75% more or less immediately.

    I am going to go out on a limb and say that you would not have been cheering the cuts this would have entailed.

    Instead they have cut the deficit by 40-odd%, more in terms of Debt:GDP ratio, it is still falling and furthermore they have got the economy growing nicely again.

    You are, I contend, one of those types on internet forums who pose as a supporter of X, who is now mysteriously in the process of being persuaded by Y, when Y is in fact what you have supported for some time.

    Yawn
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Jonnie, gerrymandering the UK constitutional settlement in line with EU thinking?

    Enormo-haddock, prepare thyselves for grievous battle!
  • kjohnw said:

    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    I read it as a Labour lead, Mike and yourself read it as a Tory lead.
    what time is it likely to come out
    Don't know.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:


    There you go. All the best

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    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.


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    Great thanks - you are a gent!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    The Labour Manifesto has one very interesting feature: the fact that the opening page - even before Ed's foreword - is about the 'Budget Responsibility Lock'.

    Leaving aside the question of how credible this is, it is interesting because it demonstrates that Labour think that the perception that they are fiscally irresponsible is their biggest weakness. In other words, Osborne has suceeded in moving the debate onto precisely the area that Labour don't want. It's very much at odds with their 'core vote' strategy - many Labour supporters will I think be bemused by the emphasis on the deficit - and of course also very much plays into the hands of the SNP and other parties of profligacy trying to poach votes from Labour's left.

    One thought does strike me: that page might be a last-minute addition. It's certainly very odd in terms of the structure of the document as a whole.

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy. IIRC, Hopi Sen was the only Labour supporter at the time who got it.

    The SNP will be poring all over the Labour Manifesto.

    It sounds great for them tbh.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited April 2015

    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    Clear expectation management there as Mr Palmer is in full politico mode :)

    You always know they're fibbing....whenever they speak!
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    I reckon the Tory strategists will be pretty happy today. Ed's last minute "lock in" on Friday gives Crosby & Co 3 weeks now to smash any remaining economic credibility to pieces.

    Meantime, the Tories can play the same trick they recently did on VAT with Labour. take a few days of pain, get Labour to go definitive on NHS spending, then show how you do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    The Labour Manifesto has one very interesting feature: the fact that the opening page - even before Ed's foreword - is about the 'Budget Responsibility Lock'.

    Leaving aside the question of how credible this is, it is interesting because it demonstrates that Labour think that the perception that they are fiscally irresponsible is their biggest weakness. In other words, Osborne has suceeded in moving the debate onto precisely the area that Labour don't want. It's very much at odds with their 'core vote' strategy - many Labour supporters will I think be bemused by the emphasis on the deficit - and of course also very much plays into the hands of the SNP and other parties of profligacy trying to poach votes from Labour's left.

    One thought does strike me: that page might be a last-minute addition. It's certainly very odd in terms of the structure of the document as a whole.

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy. IIRC, Hopi Sen was the only Labour supporter at the time who got it.

    It was added only a few days ago, at last minute, according to BBC Allegra Straton. Balls has done his work.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Repost from end of prev thread:


    I have never before done as much as skim-read a Labour GE manifesto.

    But I have speed-read this one, and I have to say, as someone who is very much a "One Nation Tory", I find it hard to see much in it that scares the horses, and much of which I approve. Indeed, there are many things I know will simply not be in the Tory manifesto.

    I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years as regular PBers will know.

    Given that some of the few Tory announcements made already either unenthuse me or I disagree with them as priorities, I do increasingly wonder whether 5 years of Labour accompanied by a Boris-led renewal and reunion of the centre-right (patently impossible under Cameron) might be in the best interests of everyone?

    And with that in mind, perhaps a Labour Government not in hock to the nationalists would be preferable.

    Gosh, me contemplating voting Labour. What is the world coming to?

    Dave - you need to do something very special tomorrow and beyond. You are failing to excite and enthuse me, so god knows what message you're sending to the key voters you need to retain/win over!

    On the other hand bob, this manifesto looks like a win for tory policies on the economy.

    It might not win for the tory party, but right wing fiscal responsiblity seems to be the order of the day, which is excellent as a whole.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The Labour Manifesto has one very interesting feature: the fact that the opening page - even before Ed's foreword - is about the 'Budget Responsibility Lock'.

    Leaving aside the question of how credible this is, it is interesting because it demonstrates that Labour think that the perception that they are fiscally irresponsible is their biggest weakness. In other words, Osborne has suceeded in moving the debate onto precisely the area that Labour don't want. It's very much at odds with their 'core vote' strategy - many Labour supporters will I think be bemused by the emphasis on the deficit - and of course also very much plays into the hands of the SNP and other parties of profligacy trying to poach votes from Labour's left.

    One thought does strike me: that page might be a last-minute addition. It's certainly very odd in terms of the structure of the document as a whole.

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy. IIRC, Hopi Sen was the only Labour supporter at the time who got it.

    It was added only a few days ago, at last minute, according to BBC Allegra Straton. Balls has done his work.
    Added in all probability in response to doorstep feedback from marginals.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Umunna slapdown for Jim Murphy: "The leader of the Scottish Labour Party will not be in charge of the UK budget"

    Not good for labour north of the border

    Which tells you all you need to know about what Labour thinks of its position up there.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    felix said:

    ICM hint sounds like a juicy Tory lead - 3 points? Impossible to guess Ashcroft!

    Clear expectation management there as Mr Palmer is in full politico mode :)

    You always know they're fibbing....whenever they speak!

    It's just possible the tweeter himself has no idea what the findings are.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    so having had Precotts regional government plans utterly rejected Labour now try to gerrymander the voting system in the same way but under the guise of reform.

    You can be sure that if they get away with this you will never see again another government other than Labour. They will secure their fiefdoms for ever.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    As I'm on a roll here: David Cameron + the Labour Manifesto = Unstoppable electoral force. Except in Scotland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    isam said:

    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk

    isam said:

    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.

    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    Fair dos! Well done

    Send me your bank details and I will transfer dough

    I'll be happy if you make a donation to MSF:

    www.msf.org.uk

    There you go. All the best

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    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.


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    well done that man!
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy.

    I believe my prediction at the time has been proven correct: The OBR is going to be used by the right-wing press as a stick to beat Labour with while it is utterly ignored under the Conservatives.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Oliver_PB said:

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy.

    I believe my prediction at the time has been proven correct: The OBR is going to be used by the right-wing press as a stick to beat Labour with while it is utterly ignored under the Conservatives.
    We can hope....
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    The plan to divide England into regions is great news as long as the division is done sensibly and without interference from politicians. The absurdly London-centric government of England is damaging the country.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    edited April 2015

    isam said:


    There you go. All the best

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    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.


    Tell your friends about MSF
    You'd be surprised how many people do not know about our work. Help our movement grow by spreading the message.

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    Great thanks - you are a gent!
    Morning Richard

    on the subject of bets I believe you and I had one from a couple of years ago on the basis of whether or not Cameron would win the next election without tracking to the right.

    A couple of questions on it.

    Do you still have the original terms of the bet (or does Peter who I believe we registered it with?)

    Would you agree that Cameron has not tacked to the right so we are really now betting on whether or not he wins?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:


    There you go. All the best

    More
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    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.

    Don't forget to keep the receipt for your tax return. Cunning way to get 5/4 if you ask me ;-)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:


    There you go. All the best

    More
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    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.

    Don't forget to keep the receipt for your tax return. Cunning way to get 5/4 if you ask me ;-)
    Tax?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2015
    Bob_Sykes said

    "I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years ---"

    Some of us altacockers have been saying this for a while.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2015

    Morning Richard

    on the subject of bets I believe you and I had one from a couple of years ago on the basis of whether or not Cameron would win the next election without tracking to the right.

    A couple of questions on it.

    Do you still have the original terms of the bet (or does Peter who I believe we registered it with?)

    Would you agree that Cameron has not tacked to the right so we are really now betting on whether or not he wins?

    I don't remember that bet, but I keep a record at home and I'll check. Are you sure it was a bet with me? The only bet I remember that I have with you is on the outcome of any EU referendum.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    isam said:

    isam said:


    There you go. All the best

    More
    MENU


    Thank you Samuel.
    Your donation of £25.00 has been successful.

    Don't forget to keep the receipt for your tax return. Cunning way to get 5/4 if you ask me ;-)
    Tax?
    Gift Aid
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 3 mins3 minutes ago

    Chuka Umunna’s brutal line that leader of the Scottish Labour party doesn’t set UK Budget, suggests party beginning to write off Scotland
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397

    Oliver_PB said:

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy.

    I believe my prediction at the time has been proven correct: The OBR is going to be used by the right-wing press as a stick to beat Labour with while it is utterly ignored under the Conservatives.
    We can hope....
    Why? It's a pointless exercise that exists solely for partisan purposes. An honourable right-winger would say such a QUANGO is a waste of government funds!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    What happened to the labours line " catostrophic tory cuts" It looks like they have put into print that they will do the same
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    There's one tax rise:

    With Labour, Britain will continue to have the most competitive rate of Corporation Tax in the G7

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    Morning Richard

    on the subject of bets I believe you and I had one from a couple of years ago on the basis of whether or not Cameron would win the next election without tracking to the right.

    A couple of questions on it.

    Do you still have the original terms of the bet (or does Peter who I believe we registered it with?)

    Would you agree that Cameron has not tacked to the right so we are really now betting on whether or not he wins?

    I don't remember that bet, but I keep a record at home and I'll check. Are you sure it was a bet with me? The only bet I remember that I have with you is on the outcome of any EU referendum.
    I thought it was but may be wrong. Apologies if so. Maybe Peter has a copy. I have had a computer death in the meantime which is why I am having to ask. (Going back through backed up emails is such a pain :-) )

    I don't want to be seen not to be holding up my end in any bets.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    Repost from end of prev thread:


    I have never before done as much as skim-read a Labour GE manifesto.

    But I have speed-read this one, and I have to say, as someone who is very much a "One Nation Tory", I find it hard to see much in it that scares the horses, and much of which I approve. Indeed, there are many things I know will simply not be in the Tory manifesto.

    I do find Ed is cutting an increasingly credible figure as prospective PM, in the face of the media and political onslaught against him, far more than Dave is with his "can't be arsed" coasting which has infuriated me for at least the past 6 years as regular PBers will know.

    Given that some of the few Tory announcements made already either unenthuse me or I disagree with them as priorities, I do increasingly wonder whether 5 years of Labour accompanied by a Boris-led renewal and reunion of the centre-right (patently impossible under Cameron) might be in the best interests of everyone?

    And with that in mind, perhaps a Labour Government not in hock to the nationalists would be preferable.

    Gosh, me contemplating voting Labour. What is the world coming to?

    Dave - you need to do something very special tomorrow and beyond. You are failing to excite and enthuse me, so god knows what message you're sending to the key voters you need to retain/win over!

    On the other hand bob, this manifesto looks like a win for tory policies on the economy.

    It might not win for the tory party, but right wing fiscal responsiblity seems to be the order of the day, which is excellent as a whole.
    It held at the start of the Blair years too. But then look how that went so horribly wrong.

    Financial irresponsibility is Labour's DNA.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Oliver_PB said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    Incidentally, in 2010 when Osborne introduced the OBR, Labour supporters were on here in droves rubbishing it. I predicted then exactly what has happened: that Labour would end up relying on the OBR in an attempt to gain some credibility on the economy.

    I believe my prediction at the time has been proven correct: The OBR is going to be used by the right-wing press as a stick to beat Labour with while it is utterly ignored under the Conservatives.
    We can hope....
    Why? It's a pointless exercise that exists solely for partisan purposes. An honourable right-winger would say such a QUANGO is a waste of government funds!
    Honorable is a moveable feast when there is an election to win....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,485
    Hmmm...
    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Richard_Nabavi said:
    No EU referendum promise in the Labour manifesto: isam owes me £25.
    I feel (almost!) embarrassed at winning such a no-brainer of a bet.

    So there you have it... no referendum. Get that Kippers NO REFERENDUM.

    The most interesting thing now is watching UKIP with there massive opportunity to get possibly a whole two seats on a good night, split the vote with the one party that actually does offer them a referendum and by doing splitting the vote forever removes any chance of what they crave most

    Way to go guys...way to go! and they said trying to ban horse racing was a mad idea

    LOL
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Cyclefree

    There's a candidate in Hampstead called Robin Ellison standing for the 'U party'. I used to know him well. Any idea what the party is all about?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015

    Hmmm...

    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.

    Lynton Crosby is poisoning the tories.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    edited April 2015
    Is it just me or am I alone in getting the impression that Balls is starting to think " Christ, I may really have to do this. "?

    It is not easy to reconcile much of what Labour has said and done in the last 5 years with this Manifesto. Opposition for opposition's sake: meet reality (with some added fluffy bits).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Are Labour actually attacking the Tories for planning to spend too MUCH on the NHS?

    Insanity.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SLab is without question an essential pillar of the Labour movement. Is it too much to hope that the whole rotten structure is about to collapse ?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    DavidL said:

    Is it just me or am I alone in getting the impression that Balls is starting to think " Christ, I may really have to do this. "?

    It is not easy to reconcile much of what Labour has said and done in the last 5 years with this Manifesto. Opposition for opposition's sake: meet reality (with some added fluffy bits).

    Don't know about Balls but I certainly am..... We just never learn.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Pong said:

    Hmmm...

    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.
    Lynton Crosby is poisoning the tories.

    Anyone in need of urgent medical attention for an injury suffered should get treated

    Farages latest idea, which I of course agree with having suggested it months ago, is for drunks to be charged for A&E use
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, has been responding to the Labour manifest launch. This is what he told the BBC.

    It’s got no credibility at all. We know every page in Labour’s manifesto will be subject to sign off by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon. Labour cannot get into Downing Street except on the coattails of the Scottish National Party so every promise they make today is subject to veto or endorsement by the SNP. Labour proposals are not funded and they are not underwritten by the credibility of delivering a strong economy.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/13/election-2015-live-ed-miliband-labour-party-manifesto
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    As I'm on a roll here: David Cameron + the Labour Manifesto = Unstoppable electoral force. Except in Scotland.

    Sadly i think it's time to cast the Scots adrift. Probably the only way we're ever gonna really be friends again. Nationalism is such a toxic ideology when it gets taken so seriously.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited April 2015

    Hmmm...

    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.


    A&E is unaffected I think.

    So if asked, you would have time to find details.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Pong said:

    Hmmm...

    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.
    Lynton Crosby is poisoning the tories.

    I suspect this measure will be VERY popular on the doorsteps....even though the practicalities may need some ironing out. I imagine a DVLC drivers licence could be used to the same effect for Brits.

    It may also have a significant impact on the NHS, if anecdotal evidence is anything to go by.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Any optimism I had about Labour has now gone after they've allowed the terms of the debate to move entirely back onto the Tories' turf. Their poll ratings have ALWAYS dropped whenever they start ludicrously posturing about how "tough" they'll be with the deficit: they just push away the many people who are against cuts and don't care about the deficit, while it sounds too implausible to those people who actually do care about the deficit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Hmmm...

    Those at outpatients clinics and in A&E will have to fill in forms stating their passport number and expiry date, and say how much time they have spent abroad, if they are to be admitted on to a ward.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3036152/Show-passport-use-NHS-Clampdown-stop-migrants-tourists-abusing-Health-Service-costs-2bn-year.html

    What happens if I don't keep my passport number on me at all times? I sure as heck do not at the moment.
    Lynton Crosby is poisoning the tories.
    Anyone in need of urgent medical attention for an injury suffered should get treated

    Farages latest idea, which I of course agree with having suggested it months ago, is for drunks to be charged for A&E use

    What happens if they're too pished to remember their PIN?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny565 said:

    Are Labour actually attacking the Tories for planning to spend too MUCH on the NHS?

    Insanity.

    @JohnRentoul: Lab promise (with typo) to spend "£2.5bn more than the Conservatives" on NHS http://t.co/QGx21ONaOx HT @toadmeister http://t.co/gWjVzOVRU3
This discussion has been closed.