Scotland won't make any difference, as even on those numbers, the Tories would have one Scottish seat. The only question would be the make-up of the opposition.
As an aside, I don't think a near total LibDem wipe-out in the SW is out of the question. It's possible you could see the LibDems reduced to Yeovil, Westmoreland, O&S, and one or two others (including Cambridge, obviously).
That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
6 weeks before last years Euros ICM had Labour on 36% and UKIP in 3rd on 20% 4 weeks later they had the Conservatives in the lead
As an aside, I don't think a near total LibDem wipe-out in the SW is out of the question. It's possible you could see the LibDems reduced to Yeovil, Westmoreland, O&S, and one or two others (including Cambridge, obviously).
Yup, that's one less-discussed aspect of a good Tory performance: it will turn the Lib Dems' night from disaster into absolute carnage. Even if the LDs hold up comparatively well in the Con/LD marginals, the margins are so small that they still will be knocked out in most of them if the Tory share is static or rising on 2010.
That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.
@antifrank - with MoE and extra Tory sample, this could be consistent with a general Tory lead of 1-2%.
In a way, it doesn't matter. Party confidence will be important, as will the vague perception that e.g. UKIP will be a wasted vote as postal votes go out. So an outlier can still have an effect, just as Lab lead +6 drew (I suspect) some early Tory policies from the manifesto.
That would be just about my worst result imaginable. Hmph.
Labour sub 250 if this is the score.
Hopefully.
That would be a compensation, I grant you. If they're going to get an overall majority though, I'd prefer the Conservatives to do still better and get Labour into one of the lower bands that I covered at still longer odds.
This was the state of play on Sunday, the last end-of-week ELBOW (12th of April) - Remember an ELBOW week (regarding fieldwork end-dates) runs from Sunday to Saturday.
The kippers do seem to be returning. They don't trust the Scots.
Hard to say. Certainly ICM, Opinium, Com Res, and the last Ashcroft poll have shown a shift from UKIP to Conservative. OTOH, Yougov, Populus, TNS, Panelbase, Survation, all continue to show UKIP polling 13-18%. I certainly don't think UKIP will poll as little as 7%, but nor do I see the party polling in the high teens.
There's now a very clear inverse correlation between Conservative and UKIP scores in polls.
That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.
And who turns out. The Tory core vote of the over 60s generally turns out in all weathers,but Labour's better ground game in the key marginals may even that out.
The kippers do seem to be returning. They don't trust the Scots.
Hard to say. Certainly ICM, Opinium, Com Res, and the last Ashcroft poll have shown a shift from UKIP to Conservative. OTOH, Yougov, Populus, TNS, Panelbase, Survation, all continue to show UKIP polling 13-18%. I certainly don't think UKIP will poll as little as 7%, but nor do I see the party polling in the high teens.
There's now a very clear inverse correlation between Conservative and UKIP scores in polls.
UKIP steadying the ship in ELBOW, 13.7% two Sundays in a row now:
SeanT Looks like the US Presidential 2016 will be 'brilliantly unpredictable' too. This is an excellent analysis by Nate Silver (excellent as it entirely endorses my own far less rigorous analysis!). It is officially a toss up and will stay there at least until well into 2016.
@antifrank - with MoE and extra Tory sample, this could be consistent with a general Tory lead of 1-2%.
In a way, it doesn't matter. Party confidence will be important, as will the vague perception that e.g. UKIP will be a wasted vote as postal votes go out. So an outlier can still have an effect, just as Lab lead +6 drew (I suspect) some early Tory policies from the manifesto.
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
I thought Mike wasn't about?
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
I thought Mike wasn't about?
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair
Mikes probably got brown pants over his spread betting position on these figures...
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
I thought Mike wasn't about?
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair
Mikes probably got brown pants over his spread betting position on these figures...
Wow. That poll would have the Conservatives on 305 seats and Labour on 247. (And if I turn all the "sophiticated" stuff off when forecasting make that more like 320 Conservative seats!
Worth remembering that February's ICM had a Tory lead of 4% so not too out of line with that sort of lead (March was only a 1% lead and looks more likely to be the outlier).
But let's see what Lord Ashcroft's (phone) poll says
UKIP outpolled by Greens in the North. Tories ahead of Labour in the North and Labour ahead of Tories in the Midlands. ICM should have buried this one out of embarrassment!
Probably a rogue but that's going to knock the wind out of Ed's sails. But it's ICM and as SeanT said, can't be totally disregarded given their gold-standard status. Perfect timing for tomorrow's manifesto launch. Pity the poor saps in the Guardian upon receiving it...must have choked on their quinoa.
It's interesting that the poll rubbishers who were missing the other week when we had some good Labour polls are out in force today. suggested thread header "Tories struggle to get beyond a 6 point lead" ?
They phoned up 90 people in Scotland, and found 9 Labour voters. There's probably a shy Labour effect here to be perfectly honest but I reckon Davidson may well have won over some of the ABC Labour rump.
39% looks toppish to say the least for the tories, no?
When is the last time they have been on 39%??
Guardian say early 2012, before the Omnishambles budget.
Labour haven't been on 39% since August 2014 (with Populus) or March 2013 with ICM itself.
Even if it is an outlier, it's hard to have an outlier on 39% if your true level of support is not the right side of 35%, particularly as the two previous ICM polls had the Tories on 36%.
It's interesting that the poll rubbishers who were missing the other week when we had some good Labour polls are out in force today. suggested thread header "Tories struggle to get beyond a 6 point lead" ?
Surely it will be "Cameron still not certain of majority"......
That polling is astonishingly good for the Conservatives. But even gold standards can have outliers.
It is the third ICM poll in a row with the Conservatives at or above 36%. And UKIP's share is a very low (even by ICM's standards) 7%. Presumably these are connected.
This election is going to make or break some pollsters' reputations.
Good. It should reduce the "groupthink" tendency more frequent polling is bringing.
The pollsters have no clear handle on how to allow for UKIP. ICM have them at 7% today, Populus (which has never been particularly purple-friendly) has them at 15%. Survation have them higher still.
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.
And who turns out. The Tory core vote of the over 60s generally turns out in all weathers,but Labour's better ground game in the key marginals may even that out.
Indeed. A gap of Tories 6 ahead vs 6 behind is just too wide. Someone's badly wrong. FWIW I think also the UKIP numbers depend critically on WHERE the support is coming from geographically. Labour have collapsed in Scotland as the Scots have realised it is the Islington Guardianista party for welfare immigrants (so to speak) and has utterly abandoned the WWC. UKIP is really a WWC party for the non-PC left or non-PC right - and may in the long run be more of a threat to Labour. If UKIP growth has really been in the North and retreat in the South then Labour are very fucked. If the UKIP numbers remain mainly in Tory seats and only very minimally eating into Labour WWC votes up north then Dave is in deep doodoo. I'm hoping the ex-Tory kippers are getting scared at the prospect of PM Miliband and holding their noses to vote blue.
I'm calling this a rogue poll (even tho I like it - so I'm not breaking the Golden Rule), however as it is ICM we can't just junk it.
So. It suggests to me an actual Tory lead of 2-3%. Cameron can still win this.
The last time I decided that an ICM poll was an outlier was when it showed the Cons on 36 with a 4 point lead a couple of months ago, in the end all of the other polls moved in line with that picture. I don't want to rule this poll as an outlier too quickly.
I also don't see evidence of a high Tory sample, the 2010 vote shares are pretty much in line with the result. The Scotland subsample looks very strange though.
UKIP outpolled by Greens in the North. Tories ahead of Labour in the North and Labour ahead of Tories in the Midlands. ICM should have buried this one out of embarrassment!
The margin of error on the subsamples is huge. You can't use them to decide whether a poll is rubbish or not.
Comments
Hopefully.
As an aside, I don't think a near total LibDem wipe-out in the SW is out of the question. It's possible you could see the LibDems reduced to Yeovil, Westmoreland, O&S, and one or two others (including Cambridge, obviously).
The lead is one issue but UKIP and Greens tied in fourth place - no other pollster has this!
CM/Guardian 2010-04-11 37 31 20
Betting on which pollster is right is effectively betting on which understands UKIP best.
What's been happening? BLOODY HELL!!!
Nice numbers but plainly wrong. UKIP on 7? Come off it....
"The day the polls turned back"
Presumably.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/261719404/Gdn-ICMApr2015CampaignPoll1
There'll be a lot of happy folk in Auchentennach tonight...
Like I've said before, just imagine how different the narrative would be if we had daily ICM phone polls and monthly YouGov online polls.
40% strategy knocks a 35% 'soak the rich' strategy out of the park.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587381169324498944
We will not see a Labour lead again in our lifetimes this campaign.
I mean, Clegg rated higher than Ed?!?!?
There's now a very clear inverse correlation between Conservative and UKIP scores in polls.
It's Brigadoon....its Briga- bloody - doon
Presumably, it's taking a while to compose a headline title that's negative towards the Tories.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587377968634318848
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/
I shall now plant up all of Devon for the next three weeks.
'"The day the polls turned back"
Where have Compouter2/Tim, & Roger gone ?
When he doesn't write the threads, they read as if they were written in a foreign language and translated through babelfish. So maybe that's down like Betfair
LibDems on 8.2% in yesterday's ELBOW, their biggest score since August!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587376864668286976
Outlier. But LOL.
Reporting for duty! I'm still with SeanT on this - Ed Milliband will be PM, but only just!
In fact this is probably a bad poll for Murphy in particular as he may not get Con-> Lab tacticals.
'Reporting for duty! I'm still with SeanT on this - Ed Milliband will be PM, but only just!
Good for you, at least you don't do a runner when you get a poll you don't like.
But let's see what Lord Ashcroft's (phone) poll says
Labour haven't been on 39% since August 2014 (with Populus) or March 2013 with ICM itself.
Even if it is an outlier, it's hard to have an outlier on 39% if your true level of support is not the right side of 35%, particularly as the two previous ICM polls had the Tories on 36%.
Seems a bit weird.
Not helpful to Ed on the day of his manifesto launch though.
'Where is NicK Palmer and what does he think about the right wing manifesto'
He's out canvassing in a Tory ward and already found five Con to Lab switchers.
Careful. You are displaying the early symptoms of a bout of surgitis.
I also don't see evidence of a high Tory sample, the 2010 vote shares are pretty much in line with the result. The Scotland subsample looks very strange though.
Reports of his comeback were exaggerated.
It's beginning to look like the pollsters are struggling to cope with the complexities of a multi-party system - but who is right and who is wrong?
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233