politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotl
Comments
-
That's what I'm thinking of doing this time. Doesn't seem widespread though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I did (Edinburgh) in the 1960's and I would vote SNP today to keep labour out
0 -
Depends. If they believe SLAB (vote Nicola, get Dave), they should vote SNP. If they believe SNP (vote Nicola, get Ed + Nicola), they should vote SLABMTimT said:And Tories are in any case not likely to vote SLAB, as SNP is preferable in terms of overall chances of a Con led government.
0 -
Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list0
-
TimT See below, it will be just like Quebec where Quebec Tories held their noses and voted Liberal to stop the Partis Quebecois. As I have said SNP MPs will vote for Miliband to be PM regardless so it makes zero difference to Cameron's chances of a majority0
-
He would do anything to anyone who met his ever changing criterion of 'rich'. Rich = Evil. I thought you had got that worked out.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.jayfdee said:
Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?0 -
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?HYUFD said:Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year
0 -
Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.weejonnie said:
If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.AndyJS said:"Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724
"All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."
http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response0 -
There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.
On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.0 -
People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.chestnut said:
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?HYUFD said:Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year
0 -
Chestnut Even in that case, because he would not have a chance to offer any of it as Sturgeon would already have voted down his government and installed Ed M0
-
-
Double post.0
-
For what it's worth, I do expect the Tory manifesto to have some items that prompt lively discussion - they have IMO decided to witter on with nothing very much until then and then go bang with two or three things. I'm not sure it's a good idea - they will dominate the news cycle for a day or two, but the price is a long period of generic stuff ("don't risk the economy") and eccentric mud-slinging by media proxy ("Ed has had too many girlfriends"). Most people have simply decided already what they're going to do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is quite a good policy as the fare increases will be restricted to RPI throughout the five years of the Parliament. However their hasn't been a game changer by anyone and if there is nothing significant in the manifestos then the Country, sadly, is drifting into utter chaos
0 -
Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.HYUFD said:Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.0 -
Calum Once the Smith plans are passed into law post election who knows, but at Holyrood it obviously makes sense for Tories to vote Labour in Labour v SNP marginals and Tory on the regional list to maximise the potential unionist seats, and many will do so0
-
The problem with this for SLAB in their (former) strongholds which voted Yes in September is that there are hardly any Con or LD voters there in the first place.Stereotomy said:There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.
On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.0 -
Surely, they are just steps on the way to Scottish independence from a SNP point of view, while Barnett, West Lothian etc are highly disliked in England by the Tories and Kippers etc.Stereotomy said:
People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.chestnut said:
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?0 -
UKIP are hardly getting a fair hearing in the media - who, with the other parties, are prepared to latch on to anything to help the UKIP vote diminish - so I think they've decided to hunker down in their target seats and work hard there. Three seats come May 8th and they'll be happy.welshowl said:
UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).
0 -
To be fair, it's the 'wrong' sort of rich that Ed complains about. Labour-donating multi-millionaire non-doms are fine and above reproach, whereas someone on £23,000 a year who bought a £1 raffle ticket to a local Conservative club's charity raffle is EVIL!Flightpath said:
He would do anything to anyone who met his ever changing criterion of 'rich'. Rich = Evil. I thought you had got that worked out.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.jayfdee said:
Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?0 -
NickPalmer said:
Agreed, really can't see that doing him any harm at all. In fact quite the reverse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
("Ed has had too many girlfriends").0 -
To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!0
-
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes0 -
Yes.Danny565 said:
Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.JackW said:Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes
The polls are weighted accorded to previous performance and the closeness of the election.0 -
Not 1745 minutes, Jack?0
-
Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.0
-
Pulpstar said:
All hands to the Grand National pump right now.Ghedebrav said:Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.
@MultiplexRant I'm afraid we had to take a lot of stuff off our website until Grand National is out of the way. Sorry
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 10, 2015
Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.
EDIT: Fair play for the rapid response though.0 -
Meanwhile down in deepest Ingerland I looked in yesterday at the Bedford Labour campaign office and found it bustling with lots of eager Patrick Hall supporters/helpers.0
-
Ghedebrav said:Pulpstar said:
All hands to the Grand National pump right now.Ghedebrav said:Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.
@MultiplexRant I'm afraid we had to take a lot of stuff off our website until Grand National is out of the way. Sorry
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 10, 2015
Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.
What is disappointing for sharp punters is sensible for a sharp bookmaker.
0 -
All Mark Hunter signs here in Cheadle. Hardly any for his Tory challenger, outside of posho Bramhall where it's more like 50/50 (might be being harsh - I'm sure she's a lovely person etc. - but she seems a rather weak candidate to put up for a winnable seat).
I'm interested in Bradford West, as former constituent. Looks like Gorgeous will retain it - I'm no fan but really he should've had a podium place at the debate; he's as much right to one as Bennett anyway.0 -
Average sp for national winners in last 5 years c33-1
Got to be a year for shorter priced horses?0 -
It's Mullguy. Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name.Carnyx said:
And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.Dair said:https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768
Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.
I go with "Oh, you're from Glasgow".0 -
"Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name." Same is true in Rum and Muck, I hear.
0 -
Not quite. Other folk got their cut as well, too - apart fron Labour. What happened was that the opposition, largely because of Labour's incompetence, never quite had the guts to vote them out. And when they did gang up, just once, we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -weejonnie said:
THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!
0 -
Indeed. Rum needs an accent grave on the U, by the way, which makes your point (Rum and then Rhum were older versions but that is the correct one).frpenkridge said:"Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name." Same is true in Rum and Muck, I hear.
0 -
There's a "great response" for UKIP in Falkirk apparently !0
-
Tory surge in Mullguy
? 0 -
That was to make the best of a hideous situation imposed by the Unionists in the first place, as you should know well enough - we have discussed it often enough.Scott_P said:
There was a vote to scrap the project, which was defeated by the SNP.Carnyx said:Now you know that that is a complete fib.
Additional funds were allocated to the project by the SNP.
These are matters of record
0 -
Is it possible that unlike, say, a certain other party leader, he is seen as having the optimal number of ex-girlfriends? And is this why the Betfair implied probability of a Labour majority has approximately doubled in the last few days?Danny565 said:To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!
0 -
-
PS Here's tte State Broadcaster - and I don't mean the Scottish State - and what it says, fpor those such as you with retrograde amnesia.Scott_P said:
Voted for a funded by the SNPCarnyx said:we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -
THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-27159614
0 -
The timing is a wee bit out for your logic ...RobD said:
But it's an interesting thought, if one goes back a few years. What if the SNP had pulled the plug on Labour and LD incompetence? Might have had some money for the A9 and other road improvements for which the Labour and LD parties were also whining at the time, but which had to be postponed.
0 -
Are we getting YouGov tonight?0
-
Anybody know what tonight's Guardian headline is?
I reckon: "Crew weights indicate Hull will win boat race."0 -
0
-
Better Hull than those dark blue b*ggersJosiasJessop said:Anybody know what tonight's Guardian headline is?
I reckon: "Crew weights indicate Hull will win boat race."
0 -
From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/
0 -
The first rule is: never assign to conspiracy that which could be explained by incompetence.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.weejonnie said:
If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.AndyJS said:"Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724
"All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."
http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response
Now if I was to make a film of this, I would get one of the gang to be employed as a sleeper by the Police and ready to downgrade the alarm. For the nerds there would obviously have been a virus introduced into the Police computer to recognise the source of the alarm and downgrade it automatically.0 -
Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.Artist said:From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/
0 -
0
-
Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.Danny565 said:
Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.Artist said:From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/0 -
Grand National:
Wouldn't be surprised by an AP swansong win on Shutthefrontdoor but there isn't really any value there. Another market leader I like alot is The Druids Nephew at 14-1 who won a good race at Cheltenham off the same mark with a bit in hand. And Balthazar King will love the ground and would be a very popular winner.
I'm usually looking for something a bit longer in the National though so how about having Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh on your side at 40-1? At 8 Ballycasey is a bit on the young side (albeit same age as the favourite), but has at least one cracking piece of form over 3m when second to Carlingford Lough at Punchestown on decent ground last year. He has a nice weight with 10-13 tomorrow and is only the price he is because Mullins looks to have been running him over trips too short all year.
Looking at the real longshots as I tend to, Ely Brown was a talented staying handicap hurdler and decentish novice chaser prior to being out for over a year injured. His reappearance left as many questions as answers but if he was anywhere near back to his best now he'd be worth a couple of quid ew at 100-1.0 -
Many a young man from Milngavie has talked himself out of a fight by claiming to be from Glasgow.Alistair said:
It's Mullguy. Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name.Carnyx said:
And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.Dair said:https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768
Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.
I go with "Oh, you're from Glasgow".
0 -
Evening all
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.0 -
Yeah you're right - just checked the 2010 result in Thanet and they got 31% there, so they haven't improved there either. Thought they only got about 20% there.Pulpstar said:
Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.Danny565 said:
Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.Artist said:From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/0 -
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/5865229391824691210 -
You think that No voters who tactically voted for the SNP back in 2011 are automatically do the same again, especially if that risks a replay of the very divisive Indy Referendum last year?! Brave prediction. Sturgeon had her chance to try and mend fences by gracefully accepting last years result and moving back onto domestic bread and butter issues. She hasn't even reached out and attempted to do this, and that is going to prove to be a major political error on her part in the longer term.calum said:
Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.HYUFD said:Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.0 -
This is the all new Top Gun Miliband the Conqueror.Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/5865229391824691210 -
afraid so.
Ed's hair seemed to be taking on topiary proportions in Edinburgh today. Od should I say EdandEdinburgh?0 -
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrowstodge said:Evening all
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.0 -
At what point does weird become "Maverick"? Gets coat.......Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
0 -
"Take My Ed Away"Pulpstar said:
This is the all new Top Gun Miliband the Conqueror.Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121 0 -
A couple of seats that might see some tactical voting actually making a difference are Fife NE and Aberdeen South.
In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote.
In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago.
The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland0 -
0
-
ELBOW fans will note that over the previous "holiday" period, over Christmas, Lab managed a stonking 2.6% lead (week-ending 23rd Dec - actually week-ending 21st plus three stray polls with fieldwork ending 22nd or 23rd).Danny565 said:
Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.JackW said:Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes
Compared with only 0.9% for week-ending 14th December and 1.1% for week-ending 11th Jan (first week of polling during 2015)0 -
Murphy still looks like an arse.Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/5865229391824691210 -
I think YouGov are doing seven polls a week now, so I expect so.GIN1138 said:Are we getting YouGov tonight?
0 -
I think TSE reckoned we will, yes.GIN1138 said:Are we getting YouGov tonight?
0 -
Very interesting, bang on the changes for the SE computed by all the constituency polls.Artist said:From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/
The total change for the SE from the constituency polls there was CON -10, LAB +2, LD-12, UKIP +19, GRN +4, that is very very similar for kent, which is good news as it seems I can predict the regional swings with relative accuracy throughout the UK.0 -
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.nigel4england said:Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
0 -
Perhaps it would be more popular if the ballot papers were printed on softer paper which we were allowed to take home and put to more satisfactory use0
-
Evening all and frankly I think those YouGov numbers are garbage, pure and simple. Scots Tories don't do tactical voting. If we are tempted to, it would be to save a LibDem where we are not in contention. As we are the LibDems main rival in several seats, Scots Tories are fighting for every vote.
As for SLAB, they have demonised us for far too long and I know that many SCons like me are looking forward to seeing as many SLAB MPs wiped out as possible. In the long term it is the best avenue for us to win back seats like East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Bearsden, Edinburgh South and South-West, Aberdeen South and several other seats. The SNP bubble will burst eventually and the SCons will be there to pick up the pieces.
As for SLAB, it is collapsing ALL OVER Scotland. They previously said they were confident of winning Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. I have seen or heard nothing and don't even know their candidate's name. They only ceded Inverness to Danny Alexander in 2005 but there is little signs of a Labour campaign there. Their campaign is teetering in the South of Scotland and eg Dumfries and Galloway is looking like a straight Tory v SNP battle as it used to be before 1997.0 -
stodge said:
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.nigel4england said:Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
Victor are paying six places, worth taking a slight dip in price for the extra place if necessary.stodge said:
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.nigel4england said:Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
I'm also on Balthazar King at 25/1 and just backed First Lieutenant, another with a lot in his favour.0 -
Probably the best photo of Ed I've ever seen.Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
Strange. I'm warming to the guy. He's having a very good campaign.0 -
Of course you bloody do!Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!0 -
"hard Ed" = typo of the campaign.bigjohnowls said:I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!
0 -
Has everyone seen this?
https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/
Turns out Wagon Wheels are popular among lefties whereas Poldark is more conservative.
ENDLESS FUN0 -
He looks like a sack of shit tied up in the middle with string. Any decent RSM would throw a track at the state of him.Bob__Sykes said:
Probably the best photo of Ed I've ever seen.Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
Strange. I'm warming to the guy. He's having a very good campaign.0 -
0
-
To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....foxinsoxuk said:
Of course you bloody do!Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!0 -
From the kent poll I can see that Dover will be a close race with a low bar, whoever gets more than 1/3 of the vote will win it, could be a 3 way race there.
In S.Thanet Farage will need to outperform the UKIP kent average by 14% to be sure of victory, but assuming that UKIP have higher support on the coastline of kent rather than it's interior, that is not impossible.0 -
Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.nigel4england said:
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrowstodge said:Evening all
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.0 -
Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order, they like boxing and have a dog.Freggles said:https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics
Umm.. look at the professions... worrying0 -
Its body armour, nobody has worn a flak jacket since 1977.welshowl said:
To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....foxinsoxuk said:
Of course you bloody do!Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!0 -
The other riders will let McCoy win tomorrow as he will then immediately retire - giving them better mounts for the remainder of the season. (TIC)nigel4england said:
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrowstodge said:Evening all
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.0 -
What government roles do you suppose they haveSpeedy said:
Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order.Freggles said:https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics
Umm.. look at the professions... worrying0 -
Fair do's. That sounds the more metrosexual bullet proofing nomenclature for the 21st century!saddened said:
Its body armour, nobody has worn a flak jacket since 1977.welshowl said:
To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....foxinsoxuk said:
Of course you bloody do!Alistair said:
Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.Dair said:This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!0 -
To be honest he would be shorter if it wasn't for the AP factor, last year he was brought into the race after a 10 week break, this year they have kept it to 7 weeks and he should be primed for this. I don't think 10/1 is value but I don't think it is a terrible price eitherMonksfield said:
Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.nigel4england said:
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrowstodge said:Evening all
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.0 -
I don't know anything further than what yougov says about them, including but not limited to they like James Bond, the World at War, John Coltrane (he's black!) and Tim Russ (he's black too!).Freggles said:
What government roles do you suppose they haveSpeedy said:
Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order.Freggles said:https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics
Umm.. look at the professions... worrying
How about that for Hitler fans?
They also read the SUN and Private Eye !, also they spend 40 hours a week on the internet and 50 hours a week watching TV (that's excessive).0 -
Yougov have roughly 10 kippers for every Lib Dem on their panel.0
-
Is that too many LDs?Freggles said:Yougov have roughly 10 kippers for every Lib Dem on their panel.
0
