What did you make of the Ashcroft polling in Boston, South Basildon & Castle Point?
UKIP ahead on raw data, weightings put Tories in the lead
I haven't looked at those polls - but it's a question of whose methodology you trust (Ashcroft uses Populus phone methodology, I believe) and what the constituent parts are on any VI.
I can't fathom a poll that says 600 out of 2000 said they voted X way in 2010 and 600 from the same 2000 say they'll vote that way today, so we'll reduce poll share to 31% when it as 37% in 2010.
To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.
Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
My lot (Forest) come out as just as leftie as Celtic. Derby more right wing even than Rangers though.
"What happened to the Labour surge in Scotland? You were convinced that Murphy easily won the debate."
I've just heard from some people who met Ed in Edinburgh this evening and they said 'he's quite delightful'. That's enough for me. I think things might turn in Scotland
"Would you fancy attempting an intelligent explanation? Obviously, it'll be a first ..."
I'm not a pollster but one thing common sense tells me is that as their livelihood depends on getting their polls accurate they will be doing everything in their power to achieve that end. I'd be very surprised if they haven't noticed that little aberration that you've pointed out
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
"Would you fancy attempting an intelligent explanation? Obviously, it'll be a first ..."
I'm not a pollster but one thing common sense tells me is that as their livelihood depends on getting their polls accurate they will be doing everything in their power to achieve that end. I'd be very surprised if they haven't noticed that little aberration that you've pointed out
Their reputations for accuracy depend on being right at the end, Their livelihoods beforehand depend on meeting the needs of their sponsors.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:
Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in
It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.
What a shambles!
No. They've saved some things for the launch of the manifesto.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
There's a lot of panicking (and cod psychology!) about.
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from being convinced Cameron gives a shit. I think he would, if he knew he would win by enough to give him a comfortable majority with the Lib Dems. But he absolutely isn't interested in an unstable minority government.
Why would he be? He'd have to spend a huge amount of time and effort on an EU renegotiation he doesn't want to do, and isn't really interested in. And he'd have to fight vote by vote to get legislation through with the DUP, his own backbenchers, and possibly UKIP. All the while disappointing his own party and supporters - left, right and centre - and quite possibly being unceremoniously defenestrated at a time not of his choosing, and going down in infamy.
Why would he want that?
I think he'd far rather head back to Oxfordshire to tend his vegetable garden, cook chicken tagine in his aga, and frolic gayfully with Samantha and the kids in the corn fields.
Maybe he's self-sabotaging it all himself. An election defeat is much cleaner and neater.
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from being convinced Cameron gives a shit. I think he would, if he knew he would win by enough to give him a comfortable majority with the Lib Dems. But he absolutely isn't interested in an unstable minority government.
Why would he be? He'd have to spend a huge amount of time and effort on an EU renegotiation he doesn't want to do, and isn't really interested in. And he'd have to fight vote by vote to get legislation through with the DUP, his own backbenchers, and possibly UKIP. All the while disappointing his own party and supporters - left, right and centre - and quite possibly being unceremoniously defenestrated at a time not of his choosing, and going down in infamy.
Why would he want that?
I think he'd far rather head back to Oxfordshire to tend his vegetable garden, cook chicken tagine in his aga, and frolic gayfully with Samantha and the kids in the corn fields.
Maybe he's self-sabotaging it all himself. An election defeat is much cleaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
I mean the Tory supporters should stop panicking
Yes, but hypothetically is there a point when you think they should start, such as if the polls continue to be as they are now 2 weeks out? Or 1 week for example?
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from leaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right.
Interesting, as I think Labour have been pretty lazy about what they need to do to win these past five years and I think they are right. So it's a battle of the lazies I guess.
Why? Because of the desperately cynical attitude of the Tories towards defence. That there's no point in pledging to meet the NATO 2% GDP target because there are "no votes in it":
Well, there's this vote in it. But that's besides the point. This should be about what's right for the country. Something that used to be a core Conservative principle.
Meanwhile, whilst we fiddle, prevaricate and recklessly cut some more, Germany have got the message and are taking steps to ensure their forces are adequate:
As a number of contributers have indicated the tactical voting analysis by Kelner is hooey. The view from John Curtice is much closer to political reality as indeed is the real life political experience of many who post on this site.
What cannot be disputed is Mike's overwhelming anxiety to seize on anything, anything at all which might save a few of these precious Liberal Scottish scalps from the SNP surge.
In my short time on this site I have lost count of the number of turning points that for which Mike has vainly looked only each time to have his hopes dashed. On memory among the straws that Mike has vainly grasped at are the following.
He thought the SNP move was temporary - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Murphy would make the change for Labour - the SNP vote went up. He thought one poll showing the SNP lead at ONLY 10 per cent was the start of the swingback - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the SNP vote was being inflated by pollsters using Scots accents on the phone - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the Salmond interviews in London would be the SNP's undoing - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Sturgeon "wasn't up to it" in the Scottish debates - the lass was adjudged to be an overwhelming winer and the SNP vote went up. Now with the latest poll showing the NATS AT 49 PER CENT Mike thinks that tactical voting will stop them.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
I mean the Tory supporters should stop panicking
Yes, but hypothetically is there a point when you think they should start, such as if the polls continue to be as they are now 2 weeks out? Or 1 week for example?
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from leaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right.
Interesting, as I think Labour have been pretty lazy about what they need to do to win these past five years and I think they are right. So it's a battle of the lazies I guess.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
I mean the Tory supporters should stop panicking
I'm not a die-hard Tory supporter. But I say it how I see it. I sense this election is slipping away from the Tories.
They are sleepwalking towards polling day. They're keeping their fingers-crossed, and their heads down, hoping that by consistently repeating "long-term economic plan" and "Ed is crap" they'll wake up in 4 weeks time and still be in office.
With that approach, they won't be. They have to fight and be hungry for it, 24 hours a day, from now until polling day.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
I mean the Tory supporters should stop panicking
I'm not a die-hard Tory supporter. But I say it how I see it. I sense this election is slipping away from the Tories.
They are sleepwalking towards polling day. They're keeping their fingers-crossed, and their heads down, hoping that by consistently repeating "long-term economic plan" and "Ed is crap" they'll wake up in 4 weeks time and still be in office.
With that approach, they won't be. They have to fight and be hungry for it, 24 hours a day, from now until polling day.
Now is about right, not a fortnight or a month ago. We are all geeks on here but for the vast majority the polling cards will have just arrived and they will start to take notice.
As a number of contributers have indicated the tactical voting analysis by Kelner is hooey. The view from John Curtice is much closer to political reality as indeed is the real life political experience of many who post on this site.
What cannot be disputed is Mike's overwhelming anxiety to seize on anything, anything at all which might save a few of these precious Liberal Scottish scalps from the SNP surge.
In my short time on this site I have lost count of the number of turning points that for which Mike has vainly looked only each time to have his hopes dashed. On memory among the straws that Mike has vainly grasped at are the following.
He thought the SNP move was temporary - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Murphy would make the change for Labour - the SNP vote went up. He thought one poll showing the SNP lead at ONLY 10 per cent was the start of the swingback - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the SNP vote was being inflated by pollsters using Scots accents on the phone - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the Salmond interviews in London would be the SNP's undoing - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Sturgeon "wasn't up to it" in the Scottish debates - the lass was adjudged to be an overwhelming winer and the SNP vote went up. Now with the latest poll showing the NATS AT 49 PER CENT Mike thinks that tactical voting will stop them.
Awful poll. No two ways about it. I thought the Tories would be consistently 2-4% ahead in the polls now, perhaps more.
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Stop panicking it is a long way from over.
When should they start panicking, if the overall picture continues to look as stable as it has for some time, that is favorably for Labour?
I mean the Tory supporters should stop panicking
Yes, but hypothetically is there a point when you think they should start, such as if the polls continue to be as they are now 2 weeks out? Or 1 week for example?
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from leaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right.
Interesting, as I think Labour have been pretty lazy about what they need to do to win these past five years and I think they are right. So it's a battle of the lazies I guess.
As a lazy bastard myself it suits me!
My view is that the great British public want both main parties to be defeated. They aren't enamoured or impressed with either.
By a strange process of osmosis, the British electorate normally get the outcome they want. So I expect the two parties to be close on seats, both well short of an overall majority, with the Conservatives having a slight edge.
Perhaps if the Tories can walk away with a light bruising on around 280-285 seats, Boris can salvage the party, boost its membership, galvanise its appeal, chip away at a desperately weak and incompetent neo-marxist Labour government, and then position them for an outright win in 2020.
As a number of contributers have indicated the tactical voting analysis by Kelner is hooey. The view from John Curtice is much closer to political reality as indeed is the real life political experience of many who post on this site.
What cannot be disputed is Mike's overwhelming anxiety to seize on anything, anything at all which might save a few of these precious Liberal Scottish scalps from the SNP surge.
In my short time on this site I have lost count of the number of turning points that for which Mike has vainly looked only each time to have his hopes dashed. On memory among the straws that Mike has vainly grasped at are the following.
He thought the SNP move was temporary - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Murphy would make the change for Labour - the SNP vote went up. He thought one poll showing the SNP lead at ONLY 10 per cent was the start of the swingback - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the SNP vote was being inflated by pollsters using Scots accents on the phone - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the Salmond interviews in London would be the SNP's undoing - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Sturgeon "wasn't up to it" in the Scottish debates - the lass was adjudged to be an overwhelming winer and the SNP vote went up. Now with the latest poll showing the NATS AT 49 PER CENT Mike thinks that tactical voting will stop them.
I think the SNP will go up!
You wash your mouth out. This is the view from outside the westminster bubble. Ok Mike has had apperances on radio and t.v, and yes he has lunched with Lord Ashcroft, but don't ever think he's out of touch.
As a number of contributers have indicated the tactical voting analysis by Kelner is hooey. The view from John Curtice is much closer to political reality as indeed is the real life political experience of many who post on this site.
What cannot be disputed is Mike's overwhelming anxiety to seize on anything, anything at all which might save a few of these precious Liberal Scottish scalps from the SNP surge.
In my short time on this site I have lost count of the number of turning points that for which Mike has vainly looked only each time to have his hopes dashed. On memory among the straws that Mike has vainly grasped at are the following.
He thought the SNP move was temporary - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Murphy would make the change for Labour - the SNP vote went up. He thought one poll showing the SNP lead at ONLY 10 per cent was the start of the swingback - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the SNP vote was being inflated by pollsters using Scots accents on the phone - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the Salmond interviews in London would be the SNP's undoing - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Sturgeon "wasn't up to it" in the Scottish debates - the lass was adjudged to be an overwhelming winer and the SNP vote went up. Now with the latest poll showing the NATS AT 49 PER CENT Mike thinks that tactical voting will stop them.
I think the SNP will go up!
I don't think that's fair on OGH. He predicted a clear nationalist YES win in the indyref. He comments on polling and polling trends when they are available.
Yes, he puts his own opinion and analysis to it. Sometimes we might agree, sometimes we won't. But he's entitled to that: it's his blog.
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from leaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right. Interesting, as I think Labour have been pretty lazy about what they need to do to win these past five years and I think they are right. So it's a battle of the lazies I guess.
As a lazy bastard myself it suits me!
My view is that the great British public want both main parties to be defeated. They aren't enamoured or impressed with either.
By a strange process of osmosis, the British electorate normally get the outcome they want. So I expect the two parties to be close on seats, both well short of an overall majority, with the Conservatives having a slight edge.
Perhaps if the Tories can walk away with a light bruising on around 280-285 seats, Boris can salvage the party, boost its membership, galvanise its appeal, chip away at a desperately weak and incompetent neo-marxist Labour government, and then position them for an outright win in 2020.
Maybe.
I could see it that way too, certainly with the Tories as largest party.
Personally I think this is a watershed election, if Labour get in for a term the Socialism will be destroyed for a generation. If the Tories get in then hopefully we can at last do something about the u democratic EU.
Off to bed now but before info I will float something that has been irking me, can anyone see the next big political force being something along the SNP or Plaid Cymru, our very own ENP?
'Now is about right, not a fortnight or a month ago. We are all geeks on here but for the vast majority the polling cards will have just arrived and they will start to take notice.'
Spot on.
Also this has been a completely normal week,nobody's for example on holiday or spending time with the kids ,they are just full on focused on the election..
To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.
Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
My lot (Forest) come out as just as leftie as Celtic. Derby more right wing even than Rangers though.
Heart of Midlothian (Congratulations BTW) and Hibernian both to the left of Celtic though - possible pointer to the Edinburgh outcome on May 7th?
Not sure I believe the statistic about Hibees disposable income - even if we are the 'Establishment' team.
'I've just heard from some people who met Ed in Edinburgh this evening and they said 'he's quite delightful'. That's enough for me. I think things might turn in Scotland'
How impressive is that.
I can understand why your clients didn't let you near anything to do with marketing or research,they would have ended up on skid row.
What did you make of the Ashcroft polling in Boston, South Basildon & Castle Point?
UKIP ahead on raw data, weightings put Tories in the lead
I haven't looked at those polls - but it's a question of whose methodology you trust (Ashcroft uses Populus phone methodology, I believe) and what the constituent parts are on any VI.
I can't fathom a poll that says 600 out of 2000 said they voted X way in 2010 and 600 from the same 2000 say they'll vote that way today, so we'll reduce poll share to 31% when it as 37% in 2010.
Because some people who didn't vote in 2010 will be voting in 2015?
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from being convinced Cameron gives a shit. I think he would, if he knew he would win by enough to give him a comfortable majority with the Lib Dems. But he absolutely isn't interested in an unstable minority government.
Why would he be? He'd have to spend a huge amount of time and effort on an EU renegotiation he doesn't want to do, and isn't really interested in. And he'd have to fight vote by vote to get legislation through with the DUP, his own backbenchers, and possibly UKIP. All the while disappointing his own party and supporters - left, right and centre - and quite possibly being unceremoniously defenestrated at a time not of his choosing, and going down in infamy.
Why would he want that?
I think he'd far rather head back to Oxfordshire to tend his vegetable garden, cook chicken tagine in his aga, and frolic gayfully with Samantha and the kids in the corn fields.
Maybe he's self-sabotaging it all himself. An election defeat is much cleaner and neater.
If he's not interested why didn't he just stand down month's ago?
Huh, I just retook the Political Compass test thing - I recall doing so a year or so ago - and apparently my political tendencies have switched from the right to the left on economic issues. Or else I remain deeply politically confused.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:
Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in
It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.
If there is a method to it I cannot see it - certainly if the idea was they were praising themselves for the theme of and discipline of their messaging previously, it is no longer either of those things.
Yeah, remember all the praise for the "steady as she goes" spring budget?
So the Tories are throwing freebies around around...Have they offered everyone a small magic money tree to be planted in their gardens? They might as well as they aren't coming back.Independent poll of polls suggests Labour on course to win 300 seats and that's with the SNP surge.
So the Tories are throwing freebies around around...Have they offered everyone a small magic money tree to be planted in their gardens? They might as well as they aren't coming back.Independent poll of polls suggests Labour on course to win 300 seats and that's with the SNP surge.
I think you will find the magic money tree firmly belongs to labour.
To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.
Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.
Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.
Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.
The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
I know the SNP are nationalist, are they officially socialist too?
To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.
Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.
Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.
Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.
The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
I know the SNP are nationalist, are they officially socialist too?
Yes! The Leaderene leads, and she is a leftie. Believe it or not, so is Salmond. He got kicked out of the SNP back in the late 70's for being too left wing.
1982.
Is George Galloway still a supporter of Scottish Independence?
So the Tories are throwing freebies around around...Have they offered everyone a small magic money tree to be planted in their gardens? They might as well as they aren't coming back.Independent poll of polls suggests Labour on course to win 300 seats and that's with the SNP surge.
I think you will find the magic money tree firmly belongs to labour.
Do you think they'd rent it to the tories then not report the income on their tax return?
So the Tories are throwing freebies around around...Have they offered everyone a small magic money tree to be planted in their gardens? They might as well as they aren't coming back.Independent poll of polls suggests Labour on course to win 300 seats and that's with the SNP surge.
I think you will find the magic money tree firmly belongs to labour.
Do you think they'd rent it to the tories then not report the income on their tax return?
If the last Labour government was anything to go by - Labour unfunded spending = really good investment - Tory spending was irresponsible.
Bad polls this week for Con without doubt. But two notes of caution:
1) We've hardly had any phone polls where Con has generally done better. I think the only phone poll was ComRes. The normal weekly Ashcroft didn't happen.
2) As Sunil has said re ELBOW - over the Christmas hols the Lab lead rose significantly then after Christmas it was back to normal. The same could have happened re Easter.
I have a feeling Monday is going to be critical. We will get the weekly Ashcroft again (phone) and we will also get the first ICM for ages (phone). Plus of course the usual YouGov and Populus (probably the two most steady internet pollsters).
I think an average of those 4 polls on Monday - ie two phone, two internet - all four generally pretty reliable - and all clearly after any Easter holiday effect - should provide a pretty good guide as to where we really are.
But the Conservatives did look down the back of the sofa back in 2010, and that is why they managed to ring fence NHS spending during this Parliament when Labour were not prepared to make that commitment. Who could forget the early days of the Labour Opposition, was it 24 hours or 3 months to save the NHS that they claimed this time, I get mixed up as its such a regular Labour scare story? And yet despite all these claims by the Labour party over the last five years, they somehow forgot to stick increased NHS spending onto the back of that fag packet that has seen the same tax revenue being earmarked to pay for a variety of different spending promises.
To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.
Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.
Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.
Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.
The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
MikeL, the Labour party have been bleating on about the NHS as their key strategy for the last five years. I have absolutely no doubts that this spending pledge was always on the Conservative spending strategy grid, just as it was back in 2010. And with the sole aim of shooting this very well flagged Labour fox during the election. The next round of debates should find any Labour attacks on the NHS well and truly neutered, even with Cameron's absence.
Comments
I can't fathom a poll that says 600 out of 2000 said they voted X way in 2010 and 600 from the same 2000 say they'll vote that way today, so we'll reduce poll share to 31% when it as 37% in 2010.
Quincel Indeed
257 UKIP VI - but only 77 voted in 2010???
Tories have 162 actual 2010 voters.
"What happened to the Labour surge in Scotland?
You were convinced that Murphy easily won the debate."
I've just heard from some people who met Ed in Edinburgh this evening and they said 'he's quite delightful'. That's enough for me. I think things might turn in Scotland
"Would you fancy attempting an intelligent explanation? Obviously, it'll be a first ..."
I'm not a pollster but one thing common sense tells me is that as their livelihood depends on getting their polls accurate they will be doing everything in their power to achieve that end. I'd be very surprised if they haven't noticed that little aberration that you've pointed out
They aren't.
I thought Ed's terrible ratings on leadership and the economy would mean that, eventually, Labour's poll ratings would catch up with that, and decline.
They haven't.
In fact, the opposite has happened: his leadership ratings have improved to buttress his poll rating.
Why would he be? He'd have to spend a huge amount of time and effort on an EU renegotiation he doesn't want to do, and isn't really interested in. And he'd have to fight vote by vote to get legislation through with the DUP, his own backbenchers, and possibly UKIP. All the while disappointing his own party and supporters - left, right and centre - and quite possibly being unceremoniously defenestrated at a time not of his choosing, and going down in infamy.
Why would he want that?
I think he'd far rather head back to Oxfordshire to tend his vegetable garden, cook chicken tagine in his aga, and frolic gayfully with Samantha and the kids in the corn fields.
Maybe he's self-sabotaging it all himself. An election defeat is much cleaner and neater.
Why? Because of the desperately cynical attitude of the Tories towards defence. That there's no point in pledging to meet the NATO 2% GDP target because there are "no votes in it":
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11526287/Election-2015-Conservatives-will-not-commit-to-Nato-defence-target.html
Well, there's this vote in it. But that's besides the point. This should be about what's right for the country. Something that used to be a core Conservative principle.
Meanwhile, whilst we fiddle, prevaricate and recklessly cut some more, Germany have got the message and are taking steps to ensure their forces are adequate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32257543
UKIP are the only party that will commit to meeting the NATO target.
What cannot be disputed is Mike's overwhelming anxiety to seize on anything, anything at all which might save a few of these precious Liberal Scottish scalps from the SNP surge.
In my short time on this site I have lost count of the number of turning points that for which Mike has vainly looked only each time to have his hopes dashed. On memory among the straws that Mike has vainly grasped at are the following.
He thought the SNP move was temporary - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Murphy would make the change for Labour - the SNP vote went up. He thought one poll showing the SNP lead at ONLY 10 per cent was the start of the swingback - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the SNP vote was being inflated by pollsters using Scots accents on the phone - the SNP vote went up. He thought that the Salmond interviews in London would be the SNP's undoing - the SNP vote went up. He thought that Sturgeon "wasn't up to it" in the Scottish debates - the lass was adjudged to be an overwhelming winer and the SNP vote went up. Now with the latest poll showing the NATS AT 49 PER CENT Mike thinks that tactical voting will stop them.
I think the SNP will go up!
They are sleepwalking towards polling day. They're keeping their fingers-crossed, and their heads down, hoping that by consistently repeating "long-term economic plan" and "Ed is crap" they'll wake up in 4 weeks time and still be in office.
With that approach, they won't be. They have to fight and be hungry for it, 24 hours a day, from now until polling day.
By a strange process of osmosis, the British electorate normally get the outcome they want. So I expect the two parties to be close on seats, both well short of an overall majority, with the Conservatives having a slight edge.
Perhaps if the Tories can walk away with a light bruising on around 280-285 seats, Boris can salvage the party, boost its membership, galvanise its appeal, chip away at a desperately weak and incompetent neo-marxist Labour government, and then position them for an outright win in 2020.
Maybe.
Ok Mike has had apperances on radio and t.v, and yes he has lunched with Lord Ashcroft, but don't ever think he's out of touch.
Yes, he puts his own opinion and analysis to it. Sometimes we might agree, sometimes we won't. But he's entitled to that: it's his blog.
'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'
Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.
If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
I'm far from leaner and neater.
I think Cameron is lazy and thinks he can win this over the next four weeks, starting when the manifestos are made public, and I think he is right.
Interesting, as I think Labour have been pretty lazy about what they need to do to win these past five years and I think they are right. So it's a battle of the lazies I guess.
As a lazy bastard myself it suits me!
My view is that the great British public want both main parties to be defeated. They aren't enamoured or impressed with either.
By a strange process of osmosis, the British electorate normally get the outcome they want. So I expect the two parties to be close on seats, both well short of an overall majority, with the Conservatives having a slight edge.
Perhaps if the Tories can walk away with a light bruising on around 280-285 seats, Boris can salvage the party, boost its membership, galvanise its appeal, chip away at a desperately weak and incompetent neo-marxist Labour government, and then position them for an outright win in 2020.
Maybe.
I could see it that way too, certainly with the Tories as largest party.
Personally I think this is a watershed election, if Labour get in for a term the Socialism will be destroyed for a generation. If the Tories get in then hopefully we can at last do something about the u democratic EU.
Off to bed now but before info I will float something that has been irking me, can anyone see the next big political force being something along the SNP or Plaid Cymru, our very own ENP?
'Now is about right, not a fortnight or a month ago. We are all geeks on here but for the vast majority the polling cards will have just arrived and they will start to take notice.'
Spot on.
Also this has been a completely normal week,nobody's for example on holiday or spending time with the kids ,they are just full on focused on the election..
Not sure I believe the statistic about Hibees disposable income - even if we are the 'Establishment' team.
'I've just heard from some people who met Ed in Edinburgh this evening and they said 'he's quite delightful'. That's enough for me. I think things might turn in Scotland'
How impressive is that.
I can understand why your clients didn't let you near anything to do with marketing or research,they would have ended up on skid row.
I doubt they could be more helpful to Miliband at the moment if they tried.
They might as well as they aren't coming back.Independent poll of polls suggests Labour on course to win 300 seats and that's with the SNP surge.
Is George Galloway still a supporter of Scottish Independence?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3034312/The-married-Lib-Dem-feminist-drunken-strip-club-night-temptation-caught-camera.html
The Lib Dems are certainly not lucky when it comes to sex scandals.
1) We've hardly had any phone polls where Con has generally done better. I think the only phone poll was ComRes. The normal weekly Ashcroft didn't happen.
2) As Sunil has said re ELBOW - over the Christmas hols the Lab lead rose significantly then after Christmas it was back to normal. The same could have happened re Easter.
I have a feeling Monday is going to be critical. We will get the weekly Ashcroft again (phone) and we will also get the first ICM for ages (phone). Plus of course the usual YouGov and Populus (probably the two most steady internet pollsters).
I think an average of those 4 polls on Monday - ie two phone, two internet - all four generally pretty reliable - and all clearly after any Easter holiday effect - should provide a pretty good guide as to where we really are.