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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    I did (Edinburgh) in the 1960's and I would vote SNP today to keep labour out

    That's what I'm thinking of doing this time. Doesn't seem widespread though.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MTimT said:

    And Tories are in any case not likely to vote SLAB, as SNP is preferable in terms of overall chances of a Con led government.

    Depends. If they believe SLAB (vote Nicola, get Dave), they should vote SNP. If they believe SNP (vote Nicola, get Ed + Nicola), they should vote SLAB
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    TimT See below, it will be just like Quebec where Quebec Tories held their noses and voted Liberal to stop the Partis Quebecois. As I have said SNP MPs will vote for Miliband to be PM regardless so it makes zero difference to Cameron's chances of a majority
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    jayfdee said:


    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.
    He would do anything to anyone who met his ever changing criterion of 'rich'. Rich = Evil. I thought you had got that worked out.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year

    Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724


    "All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
    In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."


    http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response

    If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.
    Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.

    On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year

    Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?
    People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Chestnut Even in that case, because he would not have a chance to offer any of it as Sturgeon would already have voted down his government and installed Ed M
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Double post.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569



    It is quite a good policy as the fare increases will be restricted to RPI throughout the five years of the Parliament. However their hasn't been a game changer by anyone and if there is nothing significant in the manifestos then the Country, sadly, is drifting into utter chaos

    For what it's worth, I do expect the Tory manifesto to have some items that prompt lively discussion - they have IMO decided to witter on with nothing very much until then and then go bang with two or three things. I'm not sure it's a good idea - they will dominate the news cycle for a day or two, but the price is a long period of generic stuff ("don't risk the economy") and eccentric mud-slinging by media proxy ("Ed has had too many girlfriends"). Most people have simply decided already what they're going to do.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list

    Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.

    At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.
  • There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.

    On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.

    The problem with this for SLAB in their (former) strongholds which voted Yes in September is that there are hardly any Con or LD voters there in the first place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Calum Once the Smith plans are passed into law post election who knows, but at Holyrood it obviously makes sense for Tories to vote Labour in Labour v SNP marginals and Tory on the regional list to maximise the potential unionist seats, and many will do so
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:


    Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?

    People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.
    Surely, they are just steps on the way to Scottish independence from a SNP point of view, while Barnett, West Lothian etc are highly disliked in England by the Tories and Kippers etc.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    welshowl said:



    UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).

    UKIP are hardly getting a fair hearing in the media - who, with the other parties, are prepared to latch on to anything to help the UKIP vote diminish - so I think they've decided to hunker down in their target seats and work hard there. Three seats come May 8th and they'll be happy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498

    jayfdee said:


    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.
    He would do anything to anyone who met his ever changing criterion of 'rich'. Rich = Evil. I thought you had got that worked out.
    To be fair, it's the 'wrong' sort of rich that Ed complains about. Labour-donating multi-millionaire non-doms are fine and above reproach, whereas someone on £23,000 a year who bought a £1 raffle ticket to a local Conservative club's charity raffle is EVIL!


  • ("Ed has had too many girlfriends").

    Agreed, really can't see that doing him any harm at all. In fact quite the reverse.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes

    Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Danny565 said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes

    Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.
    Yes.

    The polls are weighted accorded to previous performance and the closeness of the election.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ghedebrav said:

    Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.

    All hands to the Grand National pump right now.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.

    All hands to the Grand National pump right now.

    @MultiplexRant I'm afraid we had to take a lot of stuff off our website until Grand National is out of the way. Sorry

    — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 10, 2015

    Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.


    EDIT: Fair play for the rapid response though.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Meanwhile down in deepest Ingerland I looked in yesterday at the Bedford Labour campaign office and found it bustling with lots of eager Patrick Hall supporters/helpers.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Don't know if it's just me but Laddie's seem to have suspended all constituency betting.

    All hands to the Grand National pump right now.

    @MultiplexRant I'm afraid we had to take a lot of stuff off our website until Grand National is out of the way. Sorry

    — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 10, 2015

    Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.


    What is disappointing for sharp punters is sensible for a sharp bookmaker.

    :)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    All Mark Hunter signs here in Cheadle. Hardly any for his Tory challenger, outside of posho Bramhall where it's more like 50/50 (might be being harsh - I'm sure she's a lovely person etc. - but she seems a rather weak candidate to put up for a winnable seat).

    I'm interested in Bradford West, as former constituent. Looks like Gorgeous will retain it - I'm no fan but really he should've had a podium place at the debate; he's as much right to one as Bennett anyway.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    Average sp for national winners in last 5 years c33-1

    Got to be a year for shorter priced horses?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2015
    Carnyx said:

    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.

    It's Mullguy. Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name.

    I go with "Oh, you're from Glasgow".
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    "Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name." Same is true in Rum and Muck, I hear.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    weejonnie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "BBC News is looking for the biggest amateur general election nerd. " o_O

    Pulpstar said:

    "BBC News is looking for the biggest amateur general election nerd. " o_O

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
    Ha Ha Ha ......... Scotland is very short of Tories
    18% -only 7 points behind Labour. And may I remind you the Tories kept a SNP minority Government in power.
    Not quite. Other folk got their cut as well, too - apart fron Labour. What happened was that the opposition, largely because of Labour's incompetence, never quite had the guts to vote them out. And when they did gang up, just once, we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    "Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name." Same is true in Rum and Muck, I hear.

    Indeed. Rum needs an accent grave on the U, by the way, which makes your point (Rum and then Rhum were older versions but that is the correct one).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Carnyx said:

    we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!

    Voted for a funded by the SNP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    There's a "great response" for UKIP in Falkirk apparently !
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!

    Voted for a funded by the SNP
    Now you know that that is a complete fib. On both counts. (It was the Scottish taxpayer who fuinded it.)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Tory surge in Mullguy :D ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Carnyx said:

    Now you know that that is a complete fib.

    There was a vote to scrap the project, which was defeated by the SNP.

    Additional funds were allocated to the project by the SNP.

    These are matters of record
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    Now you know that that is a complete fib.

    There was a vote to scrap the project, which was defeated by the SNP.

    Additional funds were allocated to the project by the SNP.

    These are matters of record
    That was to make the best of a hideous situation imposed by the Unionists in the first place, as you should know well enough - we have discussed it often enough.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Danny565 said:

    To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!

    Is it possible that unlike, say, a certain other party leader, he is seen as having the optimal number of ex-girlfriends? And is this why the Betfair implied probability of a Labour majority has approximately doubled in the last few days?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!

    Voted for a funded by the SNP
    Now you know that that is a complete fib. On both counts. (It was the Scottish taxpayer who fuinded it.)

    50% of whom are voting SNP....


    I'll get my coat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!

    Voted for a funded by the SNP
    PS Here's tte State Broadcaster - and I don't mean the Scottish State - and what it says, fpor those such as you with retrograde amnesia.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-27159614

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -

    THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!

    Voted for a funded by the SNP
    Now you know that that is a complete fib. On both counts. (It was the Scottish taxpayer who fuinded it.)

    50% of whom are voting SNP....


    I'll get my coat
    The timing is a wee bit out for your logic ...

    But it's an interesting thought, if one goes back a few years. What if the SNP had pulled the plug on Labour and LD incompetence? Might have had some money for the A9 and other road improvements for which the Labour and LD parties were also whining at the time, but which had to be postponed.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Are we getting YouGov tonight?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    Anybody know what tonight's Guardian headline is?

    I reckon: "Crew weights indicate Hull will win boat race."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
    No doubt frightfully busy composing his victory speech. :sunglasses:

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
    No doubt frightfully busy composing his victory speech. :sunglasses:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
    No doubt frightfully busy composing his victory speech. :sunglasses:

    I hope he hangs in there; Parliament would be the poorer without him

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Anybody know what tonight's Guardian headline is?

    I reckon: "Crew weights indicate Hull will win boat race."

    Better Hull than those dark blue b*ggers
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724


    "All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
    In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."


    http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response

    If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.
    Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.
    The first rule is: never assign to conspiracy that which could be explained by incompetence.

    Now if I was to make a film of this, I would get one of the gang to be employed as a sleeper by the Police and ready to downgrade the alarm. For the nerds there would obviously have been a virus introduced into the Police computer to recognise the source of the alarm and downgrade it automatically.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
    No doubt frightfully busy composing his victory speech. :sunglasses:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    Not 1745 minutes, Jack?

    Only if my ARSE was due for a very late reveal .... although I couldn't rule out a 1745 seconds countdown. :smile:

    It would certainly "dram" up interest!

    How is the good viscount these days?
    No doubt frightfully busy composing his victory speech. :sunglasses:

    I hope he hangs in there; Parliament would be the poorer without him

    The HoC certainly needs a good sprinkling of Scottish aristocracy.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Artist said:

    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

    Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Tories weaponise the NHS. RT @suttonnick: http://t.co/XMnQzJQMqN
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

    Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.
    Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Grand National:

    Wouldn't be surprised by an AP swansong win on Shutthefrontdoor but there isn't really any value there. Another market leader I like alot is The Druids Nephew at 14-1 who won a good race at Cheltenham off the same mark with a bit in hand. And Balthazar King will love the ground and would be a very popular winner.

    I'm usually looking for something a bit longer in the National though so how about having Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh on your side at 40-1? At 8 Ballycasey is a bit on the young side (albeit same age as the favourite), but has at least one cracking piece of form over 3m when second to Carlingford Lough at Punchestown on decent ground last year. He has a nice weight with 10-13 tomorrow and is only the price he is because Mullins looks to have been running him over trips too short all year.

    Looking at the real longshots as I tend to, Ely Brown was a talented staying handicap hurdler and decentish novice chaser prior to being out for over a year injured. His reappearance left as many questions as answers but if he was anywhere near back to his best now he'd be worth a couple of quid ew at 100-1.
  • Alistair said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.

    It's Mullguy. Best way to piss someone off from Milngavie is to mispronounce the name.

    I go with "Oh, you're from Glasgow".
    Many a young man from Milngavie has talked himself out of a fight by claiming to be from Glasgow.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992
    Evening all :)

    Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.

    Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.

    Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.

    For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.

    ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.

    I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

    Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.
    Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.
    Yeah you're right - just checked the 2010 result in Thanet and they got 31% there, so they haven't improved there either. Thought they only got about 20% there.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    You think that No voters who tactically voted for the SNP back in 2011 are automatically do the same again, especially if that risks a replay of the very divisive Indy Referendum last year?! Brave prediction. Sturgeon had her chance to try and mend fences by gracefully accepting last years result and moving back onto domestic bread and butter issues. She hasn't even reached out and attempted to do this, and that is going to prove to be a major political error on her part in the longer term.
    calum said:

    HYUFD said:

    Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list

    Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.

    At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    This is the all new Top Gun Miliband the Conqueror.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    afraid so.

    Ed's hair seemed to be taking on topiary proportions in Edinburgh today. Od should I say EdandEdinburgh?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.

    Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.

    Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.

    For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.

    ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.

    I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2015
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    At what point does weird become "Maverick"? Gets coat.......

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    This is the all new Top Gun Miliband the Conqueror.
    "Take My Ed Away" :)
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    A couple of seats that might see some tactical voting actually making a difference are Fife NE and Aberdeen South.
    In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote.
    In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago.
    The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    @Stodge

    Agree with your assessment that it's not a great renewal.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Danny565 said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    777 minutes

    Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.
    ELBOW fans will note that over the previous "holiday" period, over Christmas, Lab managed a stonking 2.6% lead (week-ending 23rd Dec - actually week-ending 21st plus three stray polls with fieldwork ending 22nd or 23rd).

    Compared with only 0.9% for week-ending 14th December and 1.1% for week-ending 11th Jan (first week of polling during 2015)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Murphy still looks like an arse.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we getting YouGov tonight?

    I think YouGov are doing seven polls a week now, so I expect so.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we getting YouGov tonight?

    I think TSE reckoned we will, yes.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Artist said:

    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

    Very interesting, bang on the changes for the SE computed by all the constituency polls.
    The total change for the SE from the constituency polls there was CON -10, LAB +2, LD-12, UKIP +19, GRN +4, that is very very similar for kent, which is good news as it seems I can predict the regional swings with relative accuracy throughout the UK.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow

    Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.

    I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.

    I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    Perhaps it would be more popular if the ballot papers were printed on softer paper which we were allowed to take home and put to more satisfactory use
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and frankly I think those YouGov numbers are garbage, pure and simple. Scots Tories don't do tactical voting. If we are tempted to, it would be to save a LibDem where we are not in contention. As we are the LibDems main rival in several seats, Scots Tories are fighting for every vote.

    As for SLAB, they have demonised us for far too long and I know that many SCons like me are looking forward to seeing as many SLAB MPs wiped out as possible. In the long term it is the best avenue for us to win back seats like East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Bearsden, Edinburgh South and South-West, Aberdeen South and several other seats. The SNP bubble will burst eventually and the SCons will be there to pick up the pieces.

    As for SLAB, it is collapsing ALL OVER Scotland. They previously said they were confident of winning Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. I have seen or heard nothing and don't even know their candidate's name. They only ceded Inverness to Danny Alexander in 2005 but there is little signs of a Labour campaign there. Their campaign is teetering in the South of Scotland and eg Dumfries and Galloway is looking like a straight Tory v SNP battle as it used to be before 1997.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Thanks @Sunil and @Oblitus
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    stodge said:

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow

    Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.

    I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.

    I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
    stodge said:

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow

    Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.

    I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.

    I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
    Victor are paying six places, worth taking a slight dip in price for the extra place if necessary.

    I'm also on Balthazar King at 25/1 and just backed First Lieutenant, another with a lot in his favour.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Probably the best photo of Ed I've ever seen.

    Strange. I'm warming to the guy. He's having a very good campaign.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Of course you bloody do!

    No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!

    "hard Ed" = typo of the campaign.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Has everyone seen this?

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/

    Turns out Wagon Wheels are popular among lefties whereas Poldark is more conservative.

    ENDLESS FUN
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Probably the best photo of Ed I've ever seen.

    Strange. I'm warming to the guy. He's having a very good campaign.
    He looks like a sack of shit tied up in the middle with string. Any decent RSM would throw a track at the state of him.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Of course you bloody do!

    No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!
    To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics

    Umm.. look at the professions... worrying
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    From the kent poll I can see that Dover will be a close race with a low bar, whoever gets more than 1/3 of the vote will win it, could be a 3 way race there.
    In S.Thanet Farage will need to outperform the UKIP kent average by 14% to be sure of victory, but assuming that UKIP have higher support on the coastline of kent rather than it's interior, that is not impossible.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.

    Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.

    Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.

    For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.

    ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.

    I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
    Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Freggles said:

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics

    Umm.. look at the professions... worrying

    Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order, they like boxing and have a dog.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    welshowl said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Of course you bloody do!

    No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!
    To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....
    Its body armour, nobody has worn a flak jacket since 1977.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.

    Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.

    Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.

    For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.

    ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.

    I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
    The other riders will let McCoy win tomorrow as he will then immediately retire - giving them better mounts for the remainder of the season. (TIC)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Speedy said:

    Freggles said:

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics

    Umm.. look at the professions... worrying

    Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order.
    What government roles do you suppose they have
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    saddened said:

    welshowl said:

    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Do I come across as weird if I say that I genuinely think the Miliband looks pretty super cool in that photo.
    Of course you bloody do!

    No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!
    To be manly it's a flak jacket. A flak vest is what your mum would make you wear.....
    Its body armour, nobody has worn a flak jacket since 1977.
    Fair do's. That sounds the more metrosexual bullet proofing nomenclature for the 21st century!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.

    Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.

    Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.

    For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.

    ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.

    I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.

    Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
    Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.
    To be honest he would be shorter if it wasn't for the AP factor, last year he was brought into the race after a 10 week break, this year they have kept it to 7 weeks and he should be primed for this. I don't think 10/1 is value but I don't think it is a terrible price either
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    Freggles said:

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Adolf_Hitler/demographics

    Umm.. look at the professions... worrying

    Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order.
    What government roles do you suppose they have
    I don't know anything further than what yougov says about them, including but not limited to they like James Bond, the World at War, John Coltrane (he's black!) and Tim Russ (he's black too!).
    How about that for Hitler fans?
    They also read the SUN and Private Eye !, also they spend 40 hours a week on the internet and 50 hours a week watching TV (that's excessive).
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Yougov have roughly 10 kippers for every Lib Dem on their panel.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Freggles said:

    Yougov have roughly 10 kippers for every Lib Dem on their panel.

    Is that too many LDs?
This discussion has been closed.