Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
TimT See below, it will be just like Quebec where Quebec Tories held their noses and voted Liberal to stop the Partis Quebecois. As I have said SNP MPs will vote for Miliband to be PM regardless so it makes zero difference to Cameron's chances of a majority
Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?
"All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above. In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."
If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.
Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.
There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.
On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.
Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?
People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.
Chestnut Even in that case, because he would not have a chance to offer any of it as Sturgeon would already have voted down his government and installed Ed M
It is quite a good policy as the fare increases will be restricted to RPI throughout the five years of the Parliament. However their hasn't been a game changer by anyone and if there is nothing significant in the manifestos then the Country, sadly, is drifting into utter chaos
For what it's worth, I do expect the Tory manifesto to have some items that prompt lively discussion - they have IMO decided to witter on with nothing very much until then and then go bang with two or three things. I'm not sure it's a good idea - they will dominate the news cycle for a day or two, but the price is a long period of generic stuff ("don't risk the economy") and eccentric mud-slinging by media proxy ("Ed has had too many girlfriends"). Most people have simply decided already what they're going to do.
Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.
At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.
There's a real risk in Labour pitching to potential Con or LD tactical voters, because it could play into the SNP's "they're all the same" line. And Labour would have to gain more than 2 votes through extra tactical switchers for every 1 vote they lose to the SNP due to that campaigning line to come out ahead.
On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.
The problem with this for SLAB in their (former) strongholds which voted Yes in September is that there are hardly any Con or LD voters there in the first place.
Calum Once the Smith plans are passed into law post election who knows, but at Holyrood it obviously makes sense for Tories to vote Labour in Labour v SNP marginals and Tory on the regional list to maximise the potential unionist seats, and many will do so
Even if Cameron offers something in the region of FFA in return for EV4EL, Barnett Scrappage, West Lothian etc ?
People keep mooting these deals which would be horribly unpopular on both sides of the border, and pretty much pointless to the SNP.
Surely, they are just steps on the way to Scottish independence from a SNP point of view, while Barnett, West Lothian etc are highly disliked in England by the Tories and Kippers etc.
UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).
UKIP are hardly getting a fair hearing in the media - who, with the other parties, are prepared to latch on to anything to help the UKIP vote diminish - so I think they've decided to hunker down in their target seats and work hard there. Three seats come May 8th and they'll be happy.
Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?
Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.
He would do anything to anyone who met his ever changing criterion of 'rich'. Rich = Evil. I thought you had got that worked out.
To be fair, it's the 'wrong' sort of rich that Ed complains about. Labour-donating multi-millionaire non-doms are fine and above reproach, whereas someone on £23,000 a year who bought a £1 raffle ticket to a local Conservative club's charity raffle is EVIL!
To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!
Meanwhile down in deepest Ingerland I looked in yesterday at the Bedford Labour campaign office and found it bustling with lots of eager Patrick Hall supporters/helpers.
All Mark Hunter signs here in Cheadle. Hardly any for his Tory challenger, outside of posho Bramhall where it's more like 50/50 (might be being harsh - I'm sure she's a lovely person etc. - but she seems a rather weak candidate to put up for a winnable seat).
I'm interested in Bradford West, as former constituent. Looks like Gorgeous will retain it - I'm no fan but really he should've had a podium place at the debate; he's as much right to one as Bennett anyway.
Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.
Welcome!
We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
Ha Ha Ha ......... Scotland is very short of Tories
18% -only 7 points behind Labour. And may I remind you the Tories kept a SNP minority Government in power.
Not quite. Other folk got their cut as well, too - apart fron Labour. What happened was that the opposition, largely because of Labour's incompetence, never quite had the guts to vote them out. And when they did gang up, just once, we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -
There was a vote to scrap the project, which was defeated by the SNP.
Additional funds were allocated to the project by the SNP.
These are matters of record
That was to make the best of a hideous situation imposed by the Unionists in the first place, as you should know well enough - we have discussed it often enough.
To be fair, the "Ed girlfriends" wasn't necessarily a Crosby-devised attack. It was just the Mail trivialising things, but that's different. As others have said, it will probably just improve his reputation if anything!
Is it possible that unlike, say, a certain other party leader, he is seen as having the optimal number of ex-girlfriends? And is this why the Betfair implied probability of a Labour majority has approximately doubled in the last few days?
we got that glorious triumph for the Union known as -
THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!
Voted for a funded by the SNP
Now you know that that is a complete fib. On both counts. (It was the Scottish taxpayer who fuinded it.)
50% of whom are voting SNP....
I'll get my coat
The timing is a wee bit out for your logic ...
But it's an interesting thought, if one goes back a few years. What if the SNP had pulled the plug on Labour and LD incompetence? Might have had some money for the A9 and other road improvements for which the Labour and LD parties were also whining at the time, but which had to be postponed.
"All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above. In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."
If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.
Lots of stink about many aspects of this story. I am sure it will all come out in the end.
The first rule is: never assign to conspiracy that which could be explained by incompetence.
Now if I was to make a film of this, I would get one of the gang to be employed as a sleeper by the Police and ready to downgrade the alarm. For the nerds there would obviously have been a virus introduced into the Police computer to recognise the source of the alarm and downgrade it automatically.
Wouldn't be surprised by an AP swansong win on Shutthefrontdoor but there isn't really any value there. Another market leader I like alot is The Druids Nephew at 14-1 who won a good race at Cheltenham off the same mark with a bit in hand. And Balthazar King will love the ground and would be a very popular winner.
I'm usually looking for something a bit longer in the National though so how about having Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh on your side at 40-1? At 8 Ballycasey is a bit on the young side (albeit same age as the favourite), but has at least one cracking piece of form over 3m when second to Carlingford Lough at Punchestown on decent ground last year. He has a nice weight with 10-13 tomorrow and is only the price he is because Mullins looks to have been running him over trips too short all year.
Looking at the real longshots as I tend to, Ely Brown was a talented staying handicap hurdler and decentish novice chaser prior to being out for over a year injured. His reappearance left as many questions as answers but if he was anywhere near back to his best now he'd be worth a couple of quid ew at 100-1.
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.
Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.
Yeah you're right - just checked the 2010 result in Thanet and they got 31% there, so they haven't improved there either. Thought they only got about 20% there.
You think that No voters who tactically voted for the SNP back in 2011 are automatically do the same again, especially if that risks a replay of the very divisive Indy Referendum last year?! Brave prediction. Sturgeon had her chance to try and mend fences by gracefully accepting last years result and moving back onto domestic bread and butter issues. She hasn't even reached out and attempted to do this, and that is going to prove to be a major political error on her part in the longer term.
Calum After May it will be clear which unionist party is ahead, and if it is Labour by next May I can assure you many Tories in Stirling and elsewhere will be voting Labour at the constituency level to keep the SNP out and deprive Sturgeon of a second majority, Tory on the regional list
Based on current polling the SNP would likely do even better in Holyrood 2016 than in GE2015, I think the SNP will poll over 50% in both elections, leaving very little scope for tactical voting at the constituency level.
At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
A couple of seats that might see some tactical voting actually making a difference are Fife NE and Aberdeen South. In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote. In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago. The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes
Will this be taking into account this week's polls? Sunil's ELBOW is showing a surprise Con->Lab swing from last week.
ELBOW fans will note that over the previous "holiday" period, over Christmas, Lab managed a stonking 2.6% lead (week-ending 23rd Dec - actually week-ending 21st plus three stray polls with fieldwork ending 22nd or 23rd).
Compared with only 0.9% for week-ending 14th December and 1.1% for week-ending 11th Jan (first week of polling during 2015)
Very interesting, bang on the changes for the SE computed by all the constituency polls. The total change for the SE from the constituency polls there was CON -10, LAB +2, LD-12, UKIP +19, GRN +4, that is very very similar for kent, which is good news as it seems I can predict the regional swings with relative accuracy throughout the UK.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
Evening all and frankly I think those YouGov numbers are garbage, pure and simple. Scots Tories don't do tactical voting. If we are tempted to, it would be to save a LibDem where we are not in contention. As we are the LibDems main rival in several seats, Scots Tories are fighting for every vote.
As for SLAB, they have demonised us for far too long and I know that many SCons like me are looking forward to seeing as many SLAB MPs wiped out as possible. In the long term it is the best avenue for us to win back seats like East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Bearsden, Edinburgh South and South-West, Aberdeen South and several other seats. The SNP bubble will burst eventually and the SCons will be there to pick up the pieces.
As for SLAB, it is collapsing ALL OVER Scotland. They previously said they were confident of winning Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. I have seen or heard nothing and don't even know their candidate's name. They only ceded Inverness to Danny Alexander in 2005 but there is little signs of a Labour campaign there. Their campaign is teetering in the South of Scotland and eg Dumfries and Galloway is looking like a straight Tory v SNP battle as it used to be before 1997.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
Yes, I don't disagree but the price is awful. He's 10/1 with Ladbrokes though I doubt that will last long in the morning - that to me is no value in a race of this nature.
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
Victor are paying six places, worth taking a slight dip in price for the extra place if necessary.
I'm also on Balthazar King at 25/1 and just backed First Lieutenant, another with a lot in his favour.
From the kent poll I can see that Dover will be a close race with a low bar, whoever gets more than 1/3 of the vote will win it, could be a 3 way race there. In S.Thanet Farage will need to outperform the UKIP kent average by 14% to be sure of victory, but assuming that UKIP have higher support on the coastline of kent rather than it's interior, that is not impossible.
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
The other riders will let McCoy win tomorrow as he will then immediately retire - giving them better mounts for the remainder of the season. (TIC)
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Rocky Creek for me, has a lot in his favourite tomorrow
Rocky Creek was my main bet last year. Thought he had it at the third last but the petrol gauge swiftly went to empty. He's a year older and has apparently had a breathing op but at his price now I'll be leaving alone.
To be honest he would be shorter if it wasn't for the AP factor, last year he was brought into the race after a 10 week break, this year they have kept it to 7 weeks and he should be primed for this. I don't think 10/1 is value but I don't think it is a terrible price either
Very typical of what you would expect: very young, very poor, very right wing, working for law&order.
What government roles do you suppose they have
I don't know anything further than what yougov says about them, including but not limited to they like James Bond, the World at War, John Coltrane (he's black!) and Tim Russ (he's black too!). How about that for Hitler fans? They also read the SUN and Private Eye !, also they spend 40 hours a week on the internet and 50 hours a week watching TV (that's excessive).
Comments
On the other hand, maybe there aren't many potential Lab-SNP switchers left who haven't already gone, whereas there may be a lot of potential Con-Lab and LD-Lab tactical voters who haven't thought seriously about it yet.
At the regional level, in areas where the SNP win all of the constituency seats but are likely going to get less than 50% of the regional vote, many SNP supporters will be voting for the Greens, as a vote for the SNP will likely be a wasted vote. I think SLAB and the Tories could be squeezed by the Greens and UKIP, resulting in significant loss of seats.
777 minutes
The polls are weighted accorded to previous performance and the closeness of the election.
Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.
EDIT: Fair play for the rapid response though.
How is the good viscount these days?
Correct. Hasn't stopped anyone else though. Bit disappointing from the leading political bookmaker.
What is disappointing for sharp punters is sensible for a sharp bookmaker.
I'm interested in Bradford West, as former constituent. Looks like Gorgeous will retain it - I'm no fan but really he should've had a podium place at the debate; he's as much right to one as Bennett anyway.
Got to be a year for shorter priced horses?
I go with "Oh, you're from Glasgow".
THE EDINBURGH TRAMS!!!
Additional funds were allocated to the project by the SNP.
These are matters of record
I'll get my coat
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-27159614
But it's an interesting thought, if one goes back a few years. What if the SNP had pulled the plug on Labour and LD incompetence? Might have had some money for the A9 and other road improvements for which the Labour and LD parties were also whining at the time, but which had to be postponed.
I reckon: "Crew weights indicate Hull will win boat race."
CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/
Now if I was to make a film of this, I would get one of the gang to be employed as a sleeper by the Police and ready to downgrade the alarm. For the nerds there would obviously have been a virus introduced into the Police computer to recognise the source of the alarm and downgrade it automatically.
Wouldn't be surprised by an AP swansong win on Shutthefrontdoor but there isn't really any value there. Another market leader I like alot is The Druids Nephew at 14-1 who won a good race at Cheltenham off the same mark with a bit in hand. And Balthazar King will love the ground and would be a very popular winner.
I'm usually looking for something a bit longer in the National though so how about having Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh on your side at 40-1? At 8 Ballycasey is a bit on the young side (albeit same age as the favourite), but has at least one cracking piece of form over 3m when second to Carlingford Lough at Punchestown on decent ground last year. He has a nice weight with 10-13 tomorrow and is only the price he is because Mullins looks to have been running him over trips too short all year.
Looking at the real longshots as I tend to, Ely Brown was a talented staying handicap hurdler and decentish novice chaser prior to being out for over a year injured. His reappearance left as many questions as answers but if he was anywhere near back to his best now he'd be worth a couple of quid ew at 100-1.
Not long back from a most enjoyable and (for a change) profitable trip to Fontwell Park in deepest West Sussex, just inland from Bognor Regis.
Time to consider an event, the betting on which makes the meagre amounts waged on political betting pale into insignificance and that's the National tomorrow.
Watching the Topham I was surprised how few got round as they didn't go mad early. I suspect the decent ground and good pace will make it a real stayers' race tomorrow though I don't think in all honesty it's that good a renewal in terms of quality and I suspect the second circuit will take a heavy toll.
For number of finishers, 10-15 perhaps but who heads them home ? McCoy's is ludicrously short as indeed are both ROCKY CREEK and THE DRUID'S NEPHEW who bring the best form to the race and you could do a lot worse than back them both to win.
ALVORADO is a possible but again looks very short - he was value at 50s when the weights came out. I backed DOLATULO each way at 40s this morning. He ran well in the Grand Sefton and they've kept him over hurdles to protect his handicap mark over fences.
I think the bookies know it's a poor race with more dead wood then in recent years and have priced it accordingly - between that and the lack of quality it's hard to find and angle.
Ed's hair seemed to be taking on topiary proportions in Edinburgh today. Od should I say EdandEdinburgh?
In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote.
In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago.
The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland
Agree with your assessment that it's not a great renewal.
Compared with only 0.9% for week-ending 14th December and 1.1% for week-ending 11th Jan (first week of polling during 2015)
The total change for the SE from the constituency polls there was CON -10, LAB +2, LD-12, UKIP +19, GRN +4, that is very very similar for kent, which is good news as it seems I can predict the regional swings with relative accuracy throughout the UK.
I see THE DRUID'S NEPHEW is widely available at 14s - that's better than I feared - it's 7/2 each way (if he finishes in the five with PP) so your £10 e/w bet still returns £45 if he crawls home fifth which is still profit.
I would near back a National runner in single figures - they don't have a good record in recent times and it's absurd when they could be put out of the race by a 100/1 shot.
As for SLAB, they have demonised us for far too long and I know that many SCons like me are looking forward to seeing as many SLAB MPs wiped out as possible. In the long term it is the best avenue for us to win back seats like East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Bearsden, Edinburgh South and South-West, Aberdeen South and several other seats. The SNP bubble will burst eventually and the SCons will be there to pick up the pieces.
As for SLAB, it is collapsing ALL OVER Scotland. They previously said they were confident of winning Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. I have seen or heard nothing and don't even know their candidate's name. They only ceded Inverness to Danny Alexander in 2005 but there is little signs of a Labour campaign there. Their campaign is teetering in the South of Scotland and eg Dumfries and Galloway is looking like a straight Tory v SNP battle as it used to be before 1997.
I'm also on Balthazar King at 25/1 and just backed First Lieutenant, another with a lot in his favour.
Strange. I'm warming to the guy. He's having a very good campaign.
No one looks cool in a flak vest apart from proper soldiers!
https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/
Turns out Wagon Wheels are popular among lefties whereas Poldark is more conservative.
ENDLESS FUN
Umm.. look at the professions... worrying
In S.Thanet Farage will need to outperform the UKIP kent average by 14% to be sure of victory, but assuming that UKIP have higher support on the coastline of kent rather than it's interior, that is not impossible.
How about that for Hitler fans?
They also read the SUN and Private Eye !, also they spend 40 hours a week on the internet and 50 hours a week watching TV (that's excessive).