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  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Fans of Tony Blair favourite dish is boiled mutton with caper sauce

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Tony_Blair/lifestyle
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Freggles said:

    Yougov have roughly 10 kippers for every Lib Dem on their panel.

    That's pretty much an accurate reflection of the country then.
    Hopefully it'll be the ratio of MPs after the GE too.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    Fans of Tony Blair favourite dish is boiled mutton with caper sauce

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Tony_Blair/lifestyle

    Again precisely what you would expect.
    They are in their 30's, are rich, living in London, are Liberals and work for the government.
    And their favourite TV show is Question Time.

    So they have no relation with the real world or the average person.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Easterross Scottish Tory voters may dislike Labour, but they loathe the SNP and love their country more 90%+ voted for the union. Certainly come next May many Scots Tories living in Labour v SNP marginals will vote for the red team in that seat and Tory on the regional list to try and prevent Sturgeon getting another majority
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Speedy said:

    Fans of Tony Blair favourite dish is boiled mutton with caper sauce

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Tony_Blair/lifestyle

    Again precisely what you would expect.
    They are in their 30's, are rich, living in London, are Liberals and work for the government.
    And their favourite TV show is Question Time.

    So they have no relation with the real world or the average person.
    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/David_Cameron/demographics
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Scottish Tory voters may dislike Labour, but they loathe the SNP and love their country more 90%+ voted for the union. Certainly come next May many Scots Tories living in Labour v SNP marginals will vote for the red team in that seat and Tory on the regional list to try and prevent Sturgeon getting another majority

    What is the evidence for this?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Going through the yougov profiles for fans of political leaders trying to find a profile more odd than Tony Blair fans, well David Cameron's fans are not that weird in that they are old very rich southern businessmen who care only about business and so on,but their top TV show is Prime Minister's Questions.

    Now, not to offend anyone, but out of all TV shows in the whole world why would someone pick PMQ's as their favourite TV show?

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/David_Cameron/entertainment
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: Declaration @george_osborne @guardian article: We are in no doubt about our approach: the NHS is something precious http://t.co/u5C6aND0LB
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    Going through the yougov profiles for fans of political leaders trying to find a profile more odd than Tony Blair fans, well David Cameron's fans are not that weird in that they are old very rich southern businessmen who care only about business and so on,but their top TV show is Prime Minister's Questions.

    Now, not to offend anyone, but out of all TV shows in the whole world why would someone pick PMQ's as their favourite TV show?

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/David_Cameron/entertainment

    It is literally the only thing I ever watch on tv. Edit: or rather the only weekly thing I regularly watch (I also do leader's debates, and the Grand National).

    Not a DC fan particularly.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Saltire said:

    A couple of seats that might see some tactical voting actually making a difference are Fife NE and Aberdeen South.
    In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote.
    In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago.
    The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland

    Aberdeen South was my childhood seat and where I spent too many days posting leaflets. The ward has areas of extreme deprivation and many nice middle class areas too. When I was helping my dad with the Pitt Watson campaign the Lib Dems had 11% by last election they had 28% almost all taken from the Tories. I cannot see Labour winning if it loses half the council estates to SNP and Lib Dems are concentrating on holding their Aberdeenshire seat. So the big question is where the Lib Dem vote goes. We have Tories, Labour and SNP all starting with 20% and whoever gets the Lib Dem vote wins. Probably going to be a SNP / Tory fight.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    Fans of Tony Blair favourite dish is boiled mutton with caper sauce

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Tony_Blair/lifestyle

    Again precisely what you would expect.
    They are in their 30's, are rich, living in London, are Liberals and work for the government.
    And their favourite TV show is Question Time.

    So they have no relation with the real world or the average person.
    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/David_Cameron/demographics
    I've checked that, weird but still not as weird as the Tony Blair fans (if you look at among other weird results their online interests you will see David Miliband, Chuka Umunna and Gaydar).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 12s 12 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    Tick...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I'm going to be annoyed if I've stayed up for a non existent YouGov


    I think I might have a problem.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG = EICIPM
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Worth it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Tick...

    Tock.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Felix Quebec, where from 1981 to 1994 the Liberals and Partis Quebecois won about 90% of the vote between them as Quebec provincial elections divided almost entirely on federalist and separatist lines
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Incredible week of polling for LAB
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Rounds off a dismal week for the Tories!

    Things can only get better from here?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 23s23 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun:

    CON 33 (-2)
    LAB 35 (+1)
    LIB 8 (=)
    UKIP 13 (+1)
    GRN 5 (+1)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    It was the PB Tory tax from Hard Ed wot dun it
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)

    National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Speedy said:

    NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 23s23 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun:

    CON 33 (-2)
    LAB 35 (+1)
    LIB 8 (=)
    UKIP 13 (+1)
    GRN 5 (+1)

    Sleazy UKIP on slide - oh wait!
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    I have a couple of friends who are helping the local Tory campaign in Lanarkshire. Not with any hope but the overall mood is upbeat. Unlike England where the Tories are on the defensive in Scotland they are on the attack. This really is an Alice in Wonderland election where everything is upside down.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Rounds off a dismal week for the Tories!

    Things can only get better from here?

    I'm starting to review appropriate music for Tory HQ for election night:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyFyAqLtHq8
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015

    Saltire said:

    A couple of seats that might see some tactical voting actually making a difference are Fife NE and Aberdeen South.
    In Fife NE the SNP start in 4th on 14% and the Libdems have over 20% of Tories voters that could maybe be persuaded to vote for them to keep their coalition partners in the seat. Ming standing down obviously makes it a bit harder but the larger than average contingent of English born voters might help in the anti SNP vote.
    In Aberdeen S. the SNP again start in 4th, this time with just 11.5% and whilst Labour won the seat with just 36% last time that obviously means that the is alot of Liberal and Tory voters that could combine to help the unionists. I would guess that the local constituents are more aware of impact of the falling oil price than most and this may make a few less enthusiastic about independence than they might of been 6 months ago.
    The collapse of the Labour vote seems to be in the central belt especially in Strathclyde and I'm not sure how well or badly they are doing in the NE of Scotland

    Aberdeen South was my childhood seat and where I spent too many days posting leaflets. The ward has areas of extreme deprivation and many nice middle class areas too. When I was helping my dad with the Pitt Watson campaign the Lib Dems had 11% by last election they had 28% almost all taken from the Tories. I cannot see Labour winning if it loses half the council estates to SNP and Lib Dems are concentrating on holding their Aberdeenshire seat. So the big question is where the Lib Dem vote goes. We have Tories, Labour and SNP all starting with 20% and whoever gets the Lib Dem vote wins. Probably going to be a SNP / Tory fight.
    I've got more chance of becoming the pope than tactical voting has of succeeding at any level in WAK.

    Ah Hold on see you're talking about Aberdeen South - Surely the only tactical vote there is Labour ?

    Doubt it'll save them though.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Speedy said:

    Going through the yougov profiles for fans of political leaders trying to find a profile more odd than Tony Blair fans, well David Cameron's fans are not that weird in that they are old very rich southern businessmen who care only about business and so on,but their top TV show is Prime Minister's Questions.

    Now, not to offend anyone, but out of all TV shows in the whole world why would someone pick PMQ's as their favourite TV show?

    https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/David_Cameron/entertainment

    I think the YouGov profiler shows things that they like disproportionately. It's not hard to see why fans of politicians might also be fans of PMQs. [Ed MIliband fans excepted, for obvious reason].

    YouGov in line with expectations given the other polls - looks like Lab are a shade over 1% up at present.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Dreadful week for the Tories who are all over the place at the moment. To the degree that it's started their campaign appears very disjointed and bitty. Their great strength is their economic record but they've said virtually nothing about it this week. Still think they'll win though as long as they raise their game and look like they want to win. Matthew Parris worth a read in the Times tomorrow.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Note: the BBC's candidate pages are not necessarily accurate.

    They still have a UKIP candidate in Aberdeen North for example. In fact he didn't appear on the official statement of persons nominated:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000001
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Longest Easter in history.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    That YouGov thing is great fun.

    "People who like Dogs" are really right wing. Cat lovers are more neutral.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Rounds off a dismal week for the Tories!

    Things can only get better from here?

    Oh god, that reminds me of Brown and Blair.

    some things got better - a lot got worse, a lot worse.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Pathetic.

    So in order for a PM to start promising money to voters, the opposition party must be ahead in the polls just before the GE.

    Utterly predictable and pathetic, if he promises money now it will cause 2 things:
    1. Voters will sense he's only saying it because he's behind the opinion polls.
    2. Voters would think that there is more money to spend so they can vote Labour to spend it on them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Longest Easter in history.

    Very good

    Presume a bad GE2015 will be blamed on May Day
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    The strangest YouGov profile, in terms of deviation from expected value, is Liverpool F.C.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    They've had five years to plan this campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Labour won't be needing the SNP at this rate !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    So at what point can people who think the continued lack of consistent good polling for the Tories equals a Labour win say so without being accused of overreacting to 'single polls'?

    In fairness, there's so long to go though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.

    What a shambles!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    So at what point can people who think the continued lack of consistent good polling for the Tories equals a Labour win say so without being accused of overreacting to 'single polls'?

    In fairness, there's so long to go though.

    Mr Fisher tweeted earlier that (if past performance is a guide) the government party loses support during the campaign.

    So now! :-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.

    What a shambles!
    Dan Hodges still gives Tories the lead on best campaign FFS
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.

    What a shambles!
    That paid volunteering one was an odd choice.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Longest Easter in history.

    Very good

    Presume a bad GE2015 will be blamed on May Day
    Socialist holidays ruining Tory plans
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So capping private companies profit and increasing public spending is the Conservatives plan?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?

    Wibble.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Amazing what you find down the back of the sofa when you need it, isn't it? Perhaps they should have had a look before.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Speedy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Rounds off a dismal week for the Tories!

    Things can only get better from here?

    I'm starting to review appropriate music for Tory HQ for election night:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyFyAqLtHq8
    I think Howard Jones' "no-one ever is to blame" will be the popular choice at CCHQ.

    It was them beastly voters! They got it wrong!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: Tories will promise to raise inheritance tax threshold to £1m in manifesto next week, reports @bbclaurak #newsnight
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.

    What a shambles!
    Dan Hodges still gives Tories the lead on best campaign FFS
    No surprise then that the Tories are going belly up so far.
    Goodnight.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276



    Dan Hodges still gives Tories the lead on best campaign FFS

    It's a shame, because he can be quite insightful and a good read on a number of topics, but on Ed Miliband and the election, he's jumped the shark. The last one linking the Tories at elections and the Germans at football was beyond a joke. The germans haven't gone almost 25 years without a world cup.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Alistair said:

    So capping private companies profit and increasing public spending is the Conservatives plan?

    Paint by numbers Gov't.

    Any ideas Lynton ?

    Chuck em money and bribes !

    At least Labour seems as if it has one or two ideas even if they're completely shit, they seem to be TRYING.

    As for Michael Gove, giving the smoke signal to try and ruin my betting positions ! Contemptible !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Huh, I just retook the Political Compass test thing - I recall doing so a year or so ago - and apparently my political tendencies have switched from the right to the left on economic issues. Or else I remain deeply politically confused.
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.
    If there is a method to it I cannot see it - certainly if the idea was they were praising themselves for the theme of and discipline of their messaging previously, it is no longer either of those things.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 12s 12 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Probably a Tory lead before "weighting" gets involved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: Tories will promise to raise inheritance tax threshold to £1m in manifesto next week, reports @bbclaurak #newsnight

    Good - an actual policy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    ELBOW fans will note that over the previous "holiday" period, over Christmas, Lab managed a stonking 2.6% lead (week-ending 23rd Dec - actually week-ending 21st plus three stray polls with fieldwork ending 22nd or 23rd).

    Compared with only 0.9% for week-ending 14th December and 1.1% for week-ending 11th Jan (first week of polling during 2015)
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)

    National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.

    Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.

    Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.

    The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Amazing what you find down the back of the sofa when you need it, isn't it? Perhaps they should have had a look before.
    I can see a 'Labour had 13 years to do policy x, and apparently couldn't find the time to do so' heading your way in retort.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Speedy said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Pathetic.

    So in order for a PM to start promising money to voters, the opposition party must be ahead in the polls just before the GE.

    Utterly predictable and pathetic, if he promises money now it will cause 2 things:
    1. Voters will sense he's only saying it because he's behind the opinion polls.
    2. Voters would think that there is more money to spend so they can vote Labour to spend it on them.
    In relation to point 1, I wonder how many voters realise/think the Tories are behind in the polls? Personally I suspect less than 33% of voters could put the consensus polling position to within 5% of the actual position (ie. -4 to +6 Lab lead, if we take the current position to be a Lab lead of 1%). But I'd be genuinely interested to see some polling on this (metapolling).

    Anthony Wells, you reading this?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?

    Why is it being announced Fri night / Sat when people are paying less attention to news and there is less news coverage?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Edin_Rokz said:

    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)

    National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.

    Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.

    Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.

    The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
    I know the SNP are nationalist, are they officially socialist too?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    It looks like the Conservative campaign has descended into plucking random policies and numbers out of the air in the desperate that something, anything will turn the tide.

    What a shambles!
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: Tories will promise to raise inheritance tax threshold to £1m in manifesto next week, reports @bbclaurak #newsnight

    It seems that the focus group didn't change minds with the 8 billion pounds to the NHS, so they are throwing even more promises, if that doesn't work the Tories will be promising a spending surge of 100 billion pounds by the morning.

    Or just write down on a check "I'll give you anything, as long as you don't vote Labour, pleaaaaase".
  • chestnut said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 12s 12 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    Probably a Tory lead before "weighting" gets involved.
    Almost certainly.

    Stupid professional pollsters.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Amazing what you find down the back of the sofa when you need it, isn't it? Perhaps they should have had a look before.
    Well if your rabble get in then even the DFS sale won't have enough sofas for the garbage you have promised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?

    Why is it being announced Fri night / Sat when people are paying less attention to news and there is less news coverage?
    Which one - IHT or NHS ?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited April 2015
    Edin_Rokz said:



    Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.

    Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.

    Entirely correct. The SNP was always split between the NE tartan tories and the central belt left wing Jim Silliars / Margo McDonald faction. They tried to position it as a broad popular front.

    In the end the numbers told, most people live in west central Scotland, so the party pivoted left and southwards.

    In the event of independence, the SNP would pretty instantly split into a "weegie" labour party and a "teuchter" right wing organization.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Quincel said:

    Speedy said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Pathetic.

    So in order for a PM to start promising money to voters, the opposition party must be ahead in the polls just before the GE.

    Utterly predictable and pathetic, if he promises money now it will cause 2 things:
    1. Voters will sense he's only saying it because he's behind the opinion polls.
    2. Voters would think that there is more money to spend so they can vote Labour to spend it on them.
    In relation to point 1, I wonder how many voters realise/think the Tories are behind in the polls? Personally I suspect less than 33% of voters could put the consensus polling position to within 5% of the actual position (ie. -4 to +6 Lab lead, if we take the current position to be a Lab lead of 1%). But I'd be genuinely interested to see some polling on this (metapolling).

    Anthony Wells, you reading this?
    Certainly only a tiny number of people are following the polls in any kind of detail.

    I would imagine the public would be split approx.:

    - 70% think it's very close
    - 30% don't know

    I'd be amazed if anywhere near 10% are aware of the better polls for Lab in the last few days.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015

    Almost certainly.

    Stupid professional pollsters.

    YES - 51%, (or was it 52?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Jonathan said:

    Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.

    Actually I think the problem may have been his head isn't really in it, in that the Tories have been whipping up as much optimism as they can leading in to the campaign, but he just was never able to convince himself to believe it, knowing how difficult a task he faced, so he's been obsessed with trying to think his way through that problem when maybe his only chance would be to look and sound confident and hope for the best.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?

    Why is it being announced Fri night / Sat when people are paying less attention to news and there is less news coverage?
    Which one - IHT or NHS ?
    Had only read NHS when posted.

    Presumably everything is being announced on Mon and these are just deliberate leaks in advance?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Weren't we expecting some manifestos to be out in the last couple of days? Any sign of them yet? Edit: Ah, next week is it? I suppose it would have to be, any later and that would be silly.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    kle4 said:

    Weren't we expecting some manifestos to be out in the last couple of days? Any sign of them yet?

    Next week Ashcroft just tweeted.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Edin_Rokz said:

    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)

    National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.

    Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.

    Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.

    The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
    I know the SNP are nationalist, are they officially socialist too?

    Edin_Rokz said:

    To link the yougov profiler and Scottish politics, fans of Celtic FC have the strongest "left" rating of any major sports team, but Rangers fans are strongly right wing. Strangely the most right wing grouping in Scotland is Aberdeen fans.

    Tory surge in the north east ? :-)

    National Front/BNP. Stange lot up there.

    Sorry, but you particularly do not have a clue. The north east of Scotland is Old Tory, not Fascist, which is why Alec Salmond has gone out of his own leftie beliefs to side with what would normally be called the Tartan Tories to support the SNP around there.

    Problem that the voters in that area now have is that Sturgeon is a Weegie Leftie and proud of it.

    The BNP/NF and what ever have very little chance of standing any where in Scotland. Nearly every one of what ever party up here would take great pleasure in kicking them out and back to wherever in deepest Engerlund they came from
    I know the SNP are nationalist, are they officially socialist too?

    Yes! The Leaderene leads, and she is a leftie. Believe it or not, so is Salmond. He got kicked out of the SNP back in the late 70's for being too left wing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    MikeL said:

    Quincel said:

    Speedy said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
    David Cameron vows to inject an extra £8bn a year into the NHS:

    Magic Money Tree promises as panic sets in

    Pathetic.

    So in order for a PM to start promising money to voters, the opposition party must be ahead in the polls just before the GE.

    Utterly predictable and pathetic, if he promises money now it will cause 2 things:
    1. Voters will sense he's only saying it because he's behind the opinion polls.
    2. Voters would think that there is more money to spend so they can vote Labour to spend it on them.
    In relation to point 1, I wonder how many voters realise/think the Tories are behind in the polls? Personally I suspect less than 33% of voters could put the consensus polling position to within 5% of the actual position (ie. -4 to +6 Lab lead, if we take the current position to be a Lab lead of 1%). But I'd be genuinely interested to see some polling on this (metapolling).

    Anthony Wells, you reading this?
    Certainly only a tiny number of people are following the polls in any kind of detail.

    I would imagine the public would be split approx.:

    - 70% think it's very close
    - 30% don't know

    I'd be amazed if anywhere near 10% are aware of the better polls for Lab in the last few days.
    Wonder what % reckon they'll need to vote Green to keep UKIP out *chortle*

    75% don't have a clue, 25% reckon it's close.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    One thing I'm slightly worried about is Labour might get complacent now. They have a tendency over the past few years, when things are going reasonably well, to think: "right, we can just coast now, let's just stay quiet for the next few weeks and not take the risk of alienating anyone, and let's wait for victory to fall into our laps".

    They need to keep going full-throttle with the very effective message of "Labour will stop the super-rich taking us all for mugs", even if it comes at the cost of scaremongering from the Tory press which hasn't been working anyway. If they do keep going with that, then for the first time in ages I can really see Labour "winning" (winning most seats).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    ScottP The most popular policy Cameron and Osborne have produced, which forced Brown to cancel the 2007 election, sensible to put in the manifesto again
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Quincel Yesterday's Comres and Opinium still have the Tories ahead, as did yougov last night
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Is it too late for the Tories to offer free Easter Eggs
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.

    Actually I think the problem may have been his head isn't really in it, in that the Tories have been whipping up as much optimism as they can leading in to the campaign, but he just was never able to convince himself to believe it, knowing how difficult a task he faced, so he's been obsessed with trying to think his way through that problem when maybe his only chance would be to look and sound confident and hope for the best.
    Compared to any PM I can remember seeking reelection, Dave really doesn't look all that bothered. Arguably quite tired and ready for a vacation.

    I'm quite surprised. I expected more fight.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Guaranteed same day access to GP for over 75s as well (Con).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    MikeL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone really think this announcement hasn't been planned for months?

    Why is it being announced Fri night / Sat when people are paying less attention to news and there is less news coverage?
    Which one - IHT or NHS ?
    Had only read NHS when posted.

    Presumably everything is being announced on Mon and these are just deliberate leaks in advance?
    Osborne's been storing the IHT one up for ages.

    Too clever by half !
  • Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Artist said:

    From UKPR. There was a region specific poll in Kent
    CON 39% (-10), LAB 22% (-), LDEM 6% (-12), UKIP 24% (+18%) GRN 8% (+4)

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/exclusive-kents-floating-voters-34820/

    Labour must have a bloody good candidate in South Thanet if they're in contention there, when they've not improved on 2010 in Kent as a whole.
    Well they haven't improved in South Thanet - look to have kept their voters tbh and its a 3 way not a 2 way now so maybe a sniff.
    Yeah you're right - just checked the 2010 result in Thanet and they got 31% there, so they haven't improved there either. Thought they only got about 20% there.
    If that poll is at all prescient it would make seats like Dover and Deal TCTC.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Jonathan

    'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'

    Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel Yesterday's Comres and Opinium still have the Tories ahead, as did yougov last night

    Indeed, I was just taking a rough Poll of Polls position.

    Mind you, I think you missed the chance to joke about how many members of this forum don't know what the polls say.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    On another political calculating quiz I got the Greens as my closest match, and they are usually my lowest match on such things. Apparently my views are shifting rapidly without me realising it.

    In truth I am considering voting Green, but not out of any reason to support their politics, just because it's a safe seat so my vote doesn't matter and in principle I support the idea of more parties doing well in terms of national vote share.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MikeL said:

    Guaranteed same day access to GP for over 75s as well (Con).

    What happened to the basis of need.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.

    Actually I think the problem may have been his head isn't really in it, in that the Tories have been whipping up as much optimism as they can leading in to the campaign, but he just was never able to convince himself to believe it, knowing how difficult a task he faced, so he's been obsessed with trying to think his way through that problem when maybe his only chance would be to look and sound confident and hope for the best.
    Compared to any PM I can remember seeking reelection, Dave really doesn't look all that bothered. Arguably quite tired and ready for a vacation.

    I'm quite surprised. I expected more fight.

    Golden rule, never turn your back and think it's over
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983


    £8 billion for hospitals. IHT threshold up to £1 million......

    You can do better than that. What about a Louis Vuitton set of luggage for all females over the age of 18 and a Versace handbag for all those who came out last year? Then you could think about free travel for the over 30's and maybe paid holidays to the Caribbean.......

    .........Otherwise we might vote for Ed

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    One thing I'm slightly worried about is Labour might get complacent now. They have a tendency over the past few years, when things are going reasonably well, to think: "right, we can just coast now, let's just stay quiet for the next few weeks and not take the risk of alienating anyone, and let's wait for victory to fall into our laps".

    They need to keep going full-throttle with the very effective message of "Labour will stop the super-rich taking us all for mugs", even if it comes at the cost of scaremongering from the Tory press which hasn't been working anyway. If they do keep going with that, then for the first time in ages I can really see Labour "winning" (winning most seats).

    Today's Populus had a sample of 1500-2000.

    The number of 2015 Tories it found was the same as the number of 2010 Tories it found.

    So, how do the Tories drop from 37 to 31%?

    Nobody on the Labour side is bothering to look deeply - they're too busy high-fiving. Complacency is the right word.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan

    'Dave's heart really isn't in it. If the boss has had enough, there is nothing the campaign can do.'

    Is that the latest line passed down from Labour HQ?

    Nah, just a thought that started with that infamous kitchen interview and has grown since watching the campaign . He's lost his edge, the sort of uncompromising passion that you need to win, secure and hold the top job.

    If you look at the energy and sharpness he had prior to 2010, there is a a marked difference IMO.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Danny565 Dangerous if they are complacent, only 8 days ago yougov had the Tories on 37%, 6 days ago they had Labour on 33%. This is 1992 all over again, when they get into the polling booth I cannot see the voters making Miliband PM as they could not make Kinnock PM. The UKIP vote is still there for Cameron to squeeze, as Netanyahu squeezed the rightwing parties vote in Israel. My view of a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply remains unchanged
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    Almost certainly.

    Stupid professional pollsters.

    YES - 51%, (or was it 52?)
    What did you make of the Ashcroft polling in Boston, South Basildon & Castle Point?

    UKIP ahead on raw data, weightings put Tories in the lead
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    '.Otherwise we might vote for Ed '

    What happened to the Labour surge in Scotland?
    You were convinced that Murphy easily won the debate.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Chestnut


    "So, how do the Tories drop from 37 to 31%?"

    The time is out of joint. O cursèd spite. That ever I was born to set it right!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel Yesterday's Comres and Opinium still have the Tories ahead, as did yougov last night

    HYUFD Opinium isn't due till tomorrow.
This discussion has been closed.