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  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    I have no idea what the parties are doing. It's unearthly weird.

    What the Tories are doing with this 3 day volunteering thing is beyond me, as is the resitting of SATs tests as a policy deemed releasable to the news cycle. The Fallon quote was a cock up let's be honest, and detracted from the Trident message ( which was actually only "we'll buy one extra boat"). The six year old passed out next to Cameron was on to something.

    Labour's non Dom thing prob played well with its target audience but they made an utter Horlicks launching it. Now Ed is in Scotland, implausibly channeling his inner Bundesbank, lecturing the SNP on the virtues of fiscal rectitude and nobody will believe a word he's saying. Oh and he's frozen/capped/constrained ( perm any two from three just like gas or rents ) train fares.

    I can literally remember nothing about the Lib's campaign other than Nick Clegg walking through a wooded area with Ed Davey.

    UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).

    The SNP are doing a lap of honour and in fairness I think they could announce the slaughter of the first born and it won't make any difference in 2015, landslide doesn't cover it I think.

    Plaid/Greens Respect - well I'm bored now anyway who the hell cares? ( Though Plaid's Ceredigion candidate must be starring in a reality show for a bet - surely)

    Basically I'm not impressed though at least Labour appear arsed about it in fairness. Innumerate, but arsed.

    This is the election where what's NOT in the manifesto is the bit to look for, because they are all giving me the impression of tippy toeing around the big big issues because they are all scared we'll get the heeeby jeebies if we are told something approaching the truth. Come on Tories: where are the £12bn welfare cuts coming from then? Labour stop trying to con us you can get mansions, and non doms, and bankers to raise the taxes you want to - 'cos they can't and we know it.

    Feel better having got that lit off my chest!

    Very good summary except the train fare freeze is David Camerons
    Fair enough ( I thought Ed had done it too). Another Earth shattering direction setting policy from Tory HQ then. ( I'm sure Ed wants to limit them really too. I doubt he'll be happy till he's personally going round Asdas with a sticker gun regulating the prices!)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome!
    ScotsTory said:

    DanSmith said:

    SNP winning a seat instead of the Conservatives helps Labour.

    SNP winning a seat instead of Labour helps the Conservatives.

    I just don't see tactical voting happening on any great scale.

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post. The tactical voting point is something I'm struggling with. My constituency is a straight SNP/SLAB fight. I would love to say I'm the bigger man and would vote for the Unionst candidate (I.e. SLAB) but with my UK hat on it is in our interests for the SNP to take the seat. I was discussing this with a colleague of mine today (he is not a Tory) and we felt that a SNP vote is a safe vote this time - next year at Holyrood elections it will be different! On reflection I'm going to stick with my instincts and vote Tory (albeit probably wasted in terms of outcome) and think many others will do the same
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @Welshowl

    You summarise well. All the campaigns are hopeless and some also invisible!

    It may be the real fun starts next week as the campaign budget gets spent in the official 3 week bit, and the manifestos are launched.

    Either that or the parties are engaged in a game that entails trying to lose, but not by too much!

    More likely, it is not just Ed that is crap! For all his faults and confused ideas Miliband seems to be the only one making an effort.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    SNP or Labour for a Conservative voter in a SNP-LAB marginal - the vote makes next to no difference for who is PM anyway.

    Vote Conservative - Stick to your beliefs
    Vote Labour - Give PM Ed an easy ride for 5 years
    Vote SNP - Make Ed's premiership an absolute misery.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Scott_P said:

    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
    Wait. I'm pretty sure there is only one Tory in Scotland..... ;)

    Welcome ScotsTory! :D
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    RobD said:

    Pull your finger out and give us something worthwhile. I plan to vote for you in the Forest of Dean but this is a poor poor campaign so far.

    They must be saving all the good stuff for the manifesto. Right?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2015
    "Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724


    "All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
    In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."


    http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    "Meanwhile, Ed Miliband has accepted Britain is going to make him prime minister in exchange for not being David Cameron."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    On all matters relating to Scotch politics I'm reminded of Kissinger's purported quote about academic disputes: that they're as bitter as they are because the stakes are so small.

    LD, LAB and SNP are all campaigning of a platform of milking English private sector taxpayers and homeowners to fund Scottish social and economic failure.

    The practical outcome will be little different regardless.

    You can keep your JSA you sad t**t
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Ive decided not to realise gains for 2015/16 pre GE.

    Lab have said they will put up top rate to 50% for 2015/16 - I think they could also easily cut the CGT allowance for 2015/16 - even though we are already into the year.

    Remember the LDs proposed cutting it to £1,500 or £2,000 (from £11,100!).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Alistair said:
    Who were they polling, 'Wings' in Bath?

    It takes a special kind of a dimwit in an English constituency to vote for a candidate who wants to pick their pockets and send cash over the border to Northern Britain.
    Another JSA specialist in fantasy land
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
    People should really review all their personal finances around the chaos this election will hopefully bring.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    ScotsTory said:

    DanSmith said:

    SNP winning a seat instead of the Conservatives helps Labour.

    SNP winning a seat instead of Labour helps the Conservatives.

    I just don't see tactical voting happening on any great scale.

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post. The tactical voting point is something I'm struggling with. My constituency is a straight SNP/SLAB fight. I would love to say I'm the bigger man and would vote for the Unionst candidate (I.e. SLAB) but with my UK hat on it is in our interests for the SNP to take the seat. I was discussing this with a colleague of mine today (he is not a Tory) and we felt that a SNP vote is a safe vote this time - next year at Holyrood elections it will be different! On reflection I'm going to stick with my instincts and vote Tory (albeit probably wasted in terms of outcome) and think many others will do the same
    Hello there. Nice to have another Scot in time for 2016! But alas, we are disproportionately short of SLABbers, still (there is one possible on PB, I am assured, but it seems to be the love that doth not know its name).

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    "Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724


    "All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
    In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."


    http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response

    So if I want to rob a bank, first I need to set off its alarm as a falsie a couple of times, then on the 4th occassion walk away with the swag?

    Sounds easier than betting on politics...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Scott_P said:

    JPJ2 said:


    Also today's campaign, referred to as Labour's attack on the SNP "black hole" as the BBC neutrally portray it, seems to ignore the agreed terms of the Smith Commission

    That's because the Smith Commission does not apply.

    The SNP want FFA, which is not what the Smith Commission recommends. If you get FFA, you don't get Smith.

    And with FFA, the numbers are £7.6bn short
    So says a turnip head expert
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
    Wait. I'm pretty sure there is only one Tory in Scotland..... ;)

    Welcome ScotsTory! :D
    Is there a single SLABber on here?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Pull your finger out and give us something worthwhile. I plan to vote for you in the Forest of Dean but this is a poor poor campaign so far.

    They must be saving all the good stuff for the manifesto. Right?
    I'm pretty sure I didn't say that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Yorkcity said:

    If the SNP get 50 seats in Scotland and over 50% of the vote.
    Surely this would be a mandate for another referendum and leaving the UK.
    I for one can not wait for them to go.

    Can not believe why so many on here were so worried last September.

    Begone

    F Off your self
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    ScotsTory What would be useful would be a voteswap website, so say Tories vote Labour in SNP v Labour seats in return for Labour voters voting Tory in rural SNP v Tory seats.

    Certainly next year at Holyrood though where the UK government will not be at issue I would expect far more tactical voting, with Tories voting Labour on the constituency vote and Tory on the regional list
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    ScotsTory said:

    DanSmith said:

    SNP winning a seat instead of the Conservatives helps Labour.

    SNP winning a seat instead of Labour helps the Conservatives.

    I just don't see tactical voting happening on any great scale.

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post. The tactical voting point is something I'm struggling with. My constituency is a straight SNP/SLAB fight. I would love to say I'm the bigger man and would vote for the Unionst candidate (I.e. SLAB) but with my UK hat on it is in our interests for the SNP to take the seat. I was discussing this with a colleague of mine today (he is not a Tory) and we felt that a SNP vote is a safe vote this time - next year at Holyrood elections it will be different! On reflection I'm going to stick with my instincts and vote Tory (albeit probably wasted in terms of outcome) and think many others will do the same
    Please do not vote Lab under any circumstances.

    Con 290
    Lab 270
    LD 30
    SNP 40

    Cameron will be PM

    Con 290
    Lab 290
    LD 30
    SNP 20

    Miliband will be PM

    Approx numbers but you get the point. LD will not go with Lab if SNP also needed. LD will go with Lab if SNP not needed.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    MikeL said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Ive decided not to realise gains for 2015/16 pre GE.

    Lab have said they will put up top rate to 50% for 2015/16 - I think they could also easily cut the CGT allowance for 2015/16 - even though we are already into the year.

    Remember the LDs proposed cutting it to £1,500 or £2,000 (from £11,100!).
    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    @Welshowl

    You summarise well. All the campaigns are hopeless and some also invisible!

    It may be the real fun starts next week as the campaign budget gets spent in the official 3 week bit, and the manifestos are launched.

    Either that or the parties are engaged in a game that entails trying to lose, but not by too much!

    More likely, it is not just Ed that is crap! For all his faults and confused ideas Miliband seems to be the only one making an effort.

    Actually I did the Libs a disservice. I can also remember the lovely Mrs Clegg sitting on a bench. But that probably tells you more about me than the Libs' campaign!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    slade said:

    I drove through Bradford today. The east ring road - Killinghall Rd and Harrogate Rd - is lined with David Ward posters, No sign of anyone else.

    That's been my "surprise libdem hold" bet for some time
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015
    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Ive decided not to realise gains for 2015/16 pre GE.

    Lab have said they will put up top rate to 50% for 2015/16 - I think they could also easily cut the CGT allowance for 2015/16 - even though we are already into the year.

    Remember the LDs proposed cutting it to £1,500 or £2,000 (from £11,100!).
    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Yes, I think they could.

    They have already said they will change the 45p rate to 50p for the whole year - ie from 6th April. If they can do that then they can change the CGT allowance as well.

    Not saying they will - who knows!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    jayfdee said:


    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Dair said:

    Alistair said:
    Who were they polling, 'Wings' in Bath?

    It takes a special kind of a dimwit in an English constituency to vote for a candidate who wants to pick their pockets and send cash over the border to Northern Britain.
    The SNP platform at this election is to transition to Full Fiscal Autonomy. Regardless of which direction you believe subsidies are heading, they would end.

    I would think you would be very much in favour of this.
    The dumpling just has rabid hatred of all things Scottish and can only whine like the dullard he is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Pulpstar said:

    "Meanwhile, Ed Miliband has accepted Britain is going to make him prime minister in exchange for not being David Cameron."

    ;-)
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    I have no idea what the parties are doing. It's unearthly weird.

    What the Tories are doing with this 3 day volunteering thing is beyond me, as is the resitting of SATs tests as a policy deemed releasable to the news cycle. The Fallon quote was a cock up let's be honest, and detracted from the Trident message ( which was actually only "we'll buy one extra boat"). The six year old passed out next to Cameron was on to something.

    Labour's non Dom thing prob played well with its target audience but they made an utter Horlicks launching it. Now Ed is in Scotland, implausibly channeling his inner Bundesbank, lecturing the SNP on the virtues of fiscal rectitude and nobody will believe a word he's saying. Oh and he's frozen/capped/constrained ( perm any two from three just like gas or rents ) train fares.

    I can literally remember nothing about the Lib's campaign other than Nick Clegg walking through a wooded area with Ed Davey.

    UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).

    The SNP are doing a lap of honour and in fairness I think they could announce the slaughter of the first born and it won't make any difference in 2015, landslide doesn't cover it I think.

    Plaid/Greens Respect - well I'm bored now anyway who the hell cares? ( Though Plaid's Ceredigion candidate must be starring in a reality show for a bet - surely)

    Basically I'm not impressed though at least Labour appear arsed about it in fairness. Innumerate, but arsed.

    This is the election where what's NOT in the manifesto is the bit to look for, because they are all giving me the impression of tippy toeing around the big big issues because they are all scared we'll get the heeeby jeebies if we are told something approaching the truth. Come on Tories: where are the £12bn welfare cuts coming from then? Labour stop trying to con us you can get mansions, and non doms, and bankers to raise the taxes you want to - 'cos they can't and we know it.

    Feel better having got that lit off my chest!

    Very good summary except the train fare freeze is David Camerons
    Fair enough ( I thought Ed had done it too). Another Earth shattering direction setting policy from Tory HQ then. ( I'm sure Ed wants to limit them really too. I doubt he'll be happy till he's personally going round Asdas with a sticker gun regulating the prices!)
    It is quite a good policy as the fare increases will be restricted to RPI throughout the five years of the Parliament. However their hasn't been a game changer by anyone and if there is nothing significant in the manifestos then the Country, sadly, is drifting into utter chaos
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    Labour candidate: People who fly England flags are 'simpletons and casual racists'

    Isam, this refers to a Welsh Labour candidate, who is talking about flying England flags in Wales.

    Although I am not a great one for flags, it seems that either the Welsh flag or the Union Jack (depending on inclination) might be more reasonable choices if you want to fly a flag in Ceredigion.

    After all, I don't expect to see the Welsh Flag flying over Canvey Island.

    But what if you wanted to celebrate your identity as an Englishman? Similarly for Welsh not living in Wales. Limiting where you can fly a flag to only the jurisdiction it represents is silly.
    RobD: where in the US are you? I am in the DC area.
    I live in the Bay area.
    Whereabouts Rob , I lived in Santa Clara many years ago. Wonderful area to live.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Carnyx said:

    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.

    East Dunbartonshire is a seat I'm hoping will rock up for the Nats :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Scott_P said:

    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
    Ha Ha Ha ......... Scotland is very short of Tories
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Pulpstar said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
    People should really review all their personal finances around the chaos this election will hopefully bring.
    What would you suggest?

    Most of my money is tied up in equity in my house. I rely on my monthly salary (like most people) for everything else, although I do have a few k (and it is a few) of savings.

    As I am very squarely in the crosshairs of those who Labour target for a tax squeeze (those earning between £35k-£75k in the private sector) I expect to feel a very real financial penalty.

    I don't think there's very much I can do about it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Election watch

    Labour leaflet today.. No pic of Ed

    Just that and Ukip so far

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    A journalist should ask Murphy how he feels about most likely being elected by Conservative tactical voters ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    HYUFD said:

    ScotsTory What would be useful would be a voteswap website, so say Tories vote Labour in SNP v Labour seats in return for Labour voters voting Tory in rural SNP v Tory seats.

    Certainly next year at Holyrood though where the UK government will not be at issue I would expect far more tactical voting, with Tories voting Labour on the constituency vote and Tory on the regional list

    Regardless of them fiddling , both will be rarer than rocking horse merde, extinction beckons for the London sockpuppet parties
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/586522939182469121

    Apparently, Ed M recently vetoed a photo-op at Asda because he'd have to wear a hair-net, and he didn't want to look silly ...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    jayfdee said:


    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Unlikely, I think. Even Ed Miliband wouldn't be that irresponsible.
    I think that kind of retrospection is pretty improbably. What is plausible is a reduction in the allowance applying to any incremental gains during the year after the allowance change. So if you've already used your allowance, you're fine but if not then you can forget about it. Moderately complicated to implement but a picnic compared to the child benefit higher earners' charge.

    (My "expert" advice is perhaps best treated with caution here. About this time in 2010 I stood up in front of an audience of about 200 financial advisers to give a pre-election tax advice update to aid client discussions and told them that I didn't see the CGT rate being changed after the election because it didn't fit with the current direction of fiscal policy pursued by either of the major parties. I haven't been invited back this year.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    Labour candidate: People who fly England flags are 'simpletons and casual racists'

    Isam, this refers to a Welsh Labour candidate, who is talking about flying England flags in Wales.

    Although I am not a great one for flags, it seems that either the Welsh flag or the Union Jack (depending on inclination) might be more reasonable choices if you want to fly a flag in Ceredigion.

    After all, I don't expect to see the Welsh Flag flying over Canvey Island.

    But what if you wanted to celebrate your identity as an Englishman? Similarly for Welsh not living in Wales. Limiting where you can fly a flag to only the jurisdiction it represents is silly.
    RobD: where in the US are you? I am in the DC area.
    I live in the Bay area.
    Whereabouts Rob , I lived in Santa Clara many years ago. Wonderful area to live.
    Ah I live on the East Bay. I was chatting to a friend about this earlier, there is a huge divide here, between the haves and have nots, especially with the very visible homeless problem. Very sucky.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    MikeL said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Ive decided not to realise gains for 2015/16 pre GE.

    Lab have said they will put up top rate to 50% for 2015/16 - I think they could also easily cut the CGT allowance for 2015/16 - even though we are already into the year.

    Remember the LDs proposed cutting it to £1,500 or £2,000 (from £11,100!).
    Could Labour reduce the CGT allowance for the year and apply it retrospectively to gains already realised in the year?

    Yes, I think they could.

    They have already said they will change the 45p rate to 50p for the whole year - ie from 6th April. If they can do that then they can change the CGT allowance as well.

    Not saying they will - who knows!!!
    OK plan B gift a large portion to my children,they will get it sooner or later anyway,they can nibble away at it with whatever personal CGT allowance remains.

  • Pulpstar said:

    A journalist should ask Murphy how he feels about most likely being elected by Conservative tactical voters ;)

    Why would a Tory vote for Jim Murphy - much more likely to vote SNP to ensure labour's demise
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    And, as any fule kno, pronounced Milguy, which may be why some PBers don't know the geography.

    More importantly, it's also the southern end of the West Highland Way. Which is a very nice trail (especially at the northern end), but rather too busy to be a classic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    Labour candidate: People who fly England flags are 'simpletons and casual racists'

    Isam, this refers to a Welsh Labour candidate, who is talking about flying England flags in Wales.

    Although I am not a great one for flags, it seems that either the Welsh flag or the Union Jack (depending on inclination) might be more reasonable choices if you want to fly a flag in Ceredigion.

    After all, I don't expect to see the Welsh Flag flying over Canvey Island.

    But what if you wanted to celebrate your identity as an Englishman? Similarly for Welsh not living in Wales. Limiting where you can fly a flag to only the jurisdiction it represents is silly.
    RobD: where in the US are you? I am in the DC area.
    I live in the Bay area.
    Whereabouts Rob , I lived in Santa Clara many years ago. Wonderful area to live.
    Ah I live on the East Bay. I was chatting to a friend about this earlier, there is a huge divide here, between the haves and have nots, especially with the very visible homeless problem. Very sucky.
    I was living off allowances so had a very good life. America is great if you have cash.
    Spent good few years in North Carolina as well which was very nice , and Austin , Texas which was a bit too hot but absolutely lovely.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    MikeL said:

    ScotsTory said:

    DanSmith said:

    SNP winning a seat instead of the Conservatives helps Labour.

    SNP winning a seat instead of Labour helps the Conservatives.

    I just don't see tactical voting happening on any great scale.

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post. The tactical voting point is something I'm struggling with. My constituency is a straight SNP/SLAB fight. I would love to say I'm the bigger man and would vote for the Unionst candidate (I.e. SLAB) but with my UK hat on it is in our interests for the SNP to take the seat. I was discussing this with a colleague of mine today (he is not a Tory) and we felt that a SNP vote is a safe vote this time - next year at Holyrood elections it will be different! On reflection I'm going to stick with my instincts and vote Tory (albeit probably wasted in terms of outcome) and think many others will do the same
    Please do not vote Lab under any circumstances.

    Con 290
    Lab 270
    LD 30
    SNP 40

    Cameron will be PM

    Con 290
    Lab 290
    LD 30
    SNP 20

    Miliband will be PM

    Approx numbers but you get the point. LD will not go with Lab if SNP also needed. LD will go with Lab if SNP not needed.
    The LDs would extract a very heavy penalty from the Conservatives to form a government on those numbers, which would also require DUP acquiescence to S&C. Personally, I'm not sure Cameron could carry such a deal past his party. He might have no choice but to resign.

    If they didn't get it, they might well go with Labour for a minority coalition. There's Plaid, Green, SDLP as well, which gives an extra 7-8 seats, to 307-308 seats. That'd comfortably outvote Tory+DUP+UKIP. Such a minority Lab-LD coalition could only really be threatened when the Tories and SNP joined forces against a measure they both didn't like.

    I agree there's a grey zone between 285-295 seats where the Conservatives continuing in government is *possible*, but it's also rather unlikely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    A journalist should ask Murphy how he feels about most likely being elected by Conservative tactical voters ;)

    Why would a Tory vote for Jim Murphy - much more likely to vote SNP to ensure labour's demise
    I couldn't work it out either, but he has appeal apparently all the same.

    People who I can't work out why on earth anyone would tactical vote for them ever:

    1) Jim Murphy
    2) Ed Davey
    3) Anna Soubry

    ;)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Pulpstar said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
    People should really review all their personal finances around the chaos this election will hopefully bring.
    What would you suggest?

    Most of my money is tied up in equity in my house. I rely on my monthly salary (like most people) for everything else, although I do have a few k (and it is a few) of savings.

    As I am very squarely in the crosshairs of those who Labour target for a tax squeeze (those earning between £35k-£75k in the private sector) I expect to feel a very real financial penalty.

    I don't think there's very much I can do about it.
    I know there's a tendency on PB to characterise Ed's Labour party as the British Syriza, but I really can't see there being any substantive difference in the taxation levels implemented plans by either main party - certainly not for people such as you in the middle-income range. In short, I really don't think you need worry.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    ScotsTory What would be useful would be a voteswap website, so say Tories vote Labour in SNP v Labour seats in return for Labour voters voting Tory in rural SNP v Tory seats.

    Certainly next year at Holyrood though where the UK government will not be at issue I would expect far more tactical voting, with Tories voting Labour on the constituency vote and Tory on the regional list

    Regardless of them fiddling , both will be rarer than rocking horse merde, extinction beckons for the London sockpuppet parties
    Brilliant strategy though by the Tories to let labour run the unionists camp in independence campaign ;-)

    The Tories might not be feeling so lonely with the panda ;-)
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    More hyping of anti-SNP tactical voting from the unionist Laura Kueensberg of the BBC:

    "Something else is brewing, however. It is hard ever to be definitive about tactical voting and its effects. But a group of activists who worked together to oppose independence have reunited to try to stop, or at least hold back, the SNP surge.

    The campaign, United Against Separation (UAS), claims to have around 600 activists signed up in Scotland, from Labour, Tory, Lib Dems and those who aren't in any parties. They have pledged to help the SNP's closest rival in every single seat in Scotland, no matter who it is.

    The group says it is already delivering campaign materials and knocking on doors to try to switch votes. Andrew Skinner from the campaign told me in one Labour-held seat this week, Inverclyde, that activists from UAS persuaded dozens of voters in a Tory area of the seat to vote Labour, to help block the SNP.

    Mr Skinner said: "People won't say publicly, but be it a Labour or a Tory area they are happy to vote the other way to keep the SNP out."

    No campaign posters during the independence referendum campaign

    Will tactical voting from former "No" campaigners play a role in May's election?

    It's hard to verify their claims but Dundee-based Lib Dem activist Fraser McPherson says there is "absolutely no doubt" they are seeing tactical voting right across north-east Scotland.

    One voter tells me: "I'm interested in a tactical vote... there are a lot of people like me who don't want to make a big noise about it."

    Even once the polls are closed, the results are in, and we know how big the SNP success story is, we'll never be able fully to quantify the impact of voters making tactical choices. But Mr Skinner believes it's "on people's lips" and could take some of the shine off the SNP's likely victories.

    The SNP is, though, the dominant force. There is no question they are on course to take significant numbers of seats in Scotland. But with four weeks to go we can't know just how big their influence will turn out to be.

    I remember the confidence displayed by many Yes campaigners in the week before the independence referendum and their crashing disappointment afterwards. The polls of course are this time, completely different and it's a totally different vote.

    However, in an election as unpredictable as this one, runaway assumptions could well turn out to be wrong."

    Last sentence is her own obvious wishful thinking.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Roger said:

    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?

    You and I share very different political views, Roger, but I honestly have no idea either.

    My best guess is that it's Cameron trying to inject a bit of the stronger/big society positive sunny optimism stuff he pushed from 2005-2008 into the campaign and manifesto.

    My understanding is that he has a concern that just blindly sticking to "long-term economic plan" until polling day might be a bit uninspiring.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015

    MP_SE said:

    isam said:

    Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
    10/04/2015 16:55
    Labour candidate: People who fly England flags are 'simpletons and casual racists' tgr.ph/1CzH8YC

    Beat me to it.

    I think Nige's comment says it all about Labour. IF Labour win the election, UKIP will be in a very very strong position to hoover up an awful lot of working class northern votes when they realise that Labour despises everything they believe in.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/586553362100973568

    Interesting. What does this single entity known as the white working class believe in? Many white working class people believe in the public sector. Labour does not despise that. UKIP's Thatcherite leadership does. Many more believe in strong trade unions. Labour does not despise that. UKIP's Thatcherite leadership does.There are a fair few who believe in an expanded state. Labour does not despise that. UKIP's Thatcherite leadership does.

    If you are the kind of person who seriously believes the white working class drives around in white vans and likes nothing more than waving England flags you really do not know much about the white working class, which - in reality - comes in all shapes and sizes and is home to a wide variety of views.

    Would you be able to point out specifically where in my post I mentioned white?

    Whether you like it or not the working class/white working class are for the most part patriotic. Sneering at England flags and insulting those who choose to display them is not patriotic. I know that may be hard for you to believe as the liberal elite which flock to Labour are ashamed of England's past.

    If what you said is correct why did Emily Thornberry get the boot? Obviously Ed doesn't agree with you.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Roger said:

    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?

    It's the Cones Hotline Redux, Rog. Believe it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Don't crash the switchboards in the rush fellow PB'ers.
    But auntie Beeb needs you!

    "Ultimate election geek

    Are you election-mad? BBC News is searching for the ' biggest amateur general election nerd '. Can you help?"

  • Roger said:

    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?

    You and I share very different political views, Roger, but I honestly have no idea either.

    My best guess is that it's Cameron trying to inject a bit of the stronger/big society positive sunny optimism stuff he pushed from 2005-2008 into the campaign and manifesto.

    My understanding is that he has a concern that just blindly sticking to "long-term economic plan" until polling day might be a bit uninspiring.
    The BBC explained today that there are 15 million people who volunteer for all sorts of community service including school governors, charity organisations and the like and that this policy would apply to all people working in Companies with 250 or more employees and the public sector, though trade union work would not apply. It is welcomed by the CBI and whilst it may have merits its hardly an eye catcher
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited April 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
    People should really review all their personal finances around the chaos this election will hopefully bring.
    What would you suggest?

    Most of my money is tied up in equity in my house. I rely on my monthly salary (like most people) for everything else, although I do have a few k (and it is a few) of savings.

    As I am very squarely in the crosshairs of those who Labour target for a tax squeeze (those earning between £35k-£75k in the private sector) I expect to feel a very real financial penalty.

    I don't think there's very much I can do about it.
    I know there's a tendency on PB to characterise Ed's Labour party as the British Syriza, but I really can't see there being any substantive difference in the taxation levels implemented plans by either main party - certainly not for people such as you in the middle-income range. In short, I really don't think you need worry.
    Thanks, I wish I could share your optimism, but I disagree.

    We rehearsed Labour tax moves on here the other day; their stated policy is to shift toward increasing tax rather than cutting spending to solve the deficit. Although, personally, I think they'll probably borrow as much as they can get away with.

    I think the 40p band would be frozen. There would probably be no further real uplifts in the basic IT threshold. My pension savings limits would be cut (again) and fuel duty increased. And nothing on inheritance tax, although the Tories probably won't do much on that either.

    More seriously, due to their macro-economic management of the country (including mansion taxes, 50p top rate, increases in corporation tax and increases in Employer NI) I wouldn't be surprised to see the economy suffer and my salary growth stagnate over time.

    I'd expect to be several thousand pounds worse off over five years. Possibly a lot more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Roger said:

    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?

    You and I share very different political views, Roger, but I honestly have no idea either.

    My best guess is that it's Cameron trying to inject a bit of the stronger/big society positive sunny optimism stuff he pushed from 2005-2008 into the campaign and manifesto.

    My understanding is that he has a concern that just blindly sticking to "long-term economic plan" until polling day might be a bit uninspiring.
    The BBC explained today that there are 15 million people who volunteer for all sorts of community service including school governors, charity organisations and the like and that this policy would apply to all people working in Companies with 250 or more employees and the public sector, though trade union work would not apply. It is welcomed by the CBI and whilst it may have merits its hardly an eye catcher
    I used to work for a Big 4 consultancy. They offered this 2 days per year off for volunteering as standard as part of their "flexi" benefits package.

    Increasingly, many larger firms do.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    This really made me laugh. Eggs and Bacon.

    That's the second genuinely funny Nat thing posted today (after the Murphy history show). In other words, a record :lol:
  • Thanks for the warm welcoine all - although I have been lurking for a while it is good to finally 'come out'- honestly you are not that scary! Well maybe a little. My aim is to hang around and continue to post.

    I think Scotland is going to be not only fascinating but also pivotal to the next UK government. I still think the SNP will have c.40 seats - SLAB have a loyal but diminishing support as we did in 1997. If the outcome isvs the polls, DC should propose fulll fiscal autonomy to Scotland. If the SNP accept they will finally have to com up with a coherent econimic policy (and be damned for supporting the Tories) or reject through ideology which will question their relevance. Either way the union will win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    MalcG Tactical voting will be more a factor at Holyrood next year, but may save a handful of seats next year
  • Surely the very last thing the Scottish Tories are going to do is to vote Labour "tactically". They're far more likely surely to vote SNP so as to defeat Labour. Well at least that would be my thinking if I lived North of the Border, Heaven forbid.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Pulpstar said:

    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    Move your money into shares that are overseas earners, in particular those such as GSK that earn in Dollars. They will do well if Sterling slides.
    People should really review all their personal finances around the chaos this election will hopefully bring.
    What would you suggest?

    Most of my money is tied up in equity in my house. I rely on my monthly salary (like most people) for everything else, although I do have a few k (and it is a few) of savings.

    As I am very squarely in the crosshairs of those who Labour target for a tax squeeze (those earning between £35k-£75k in the private sector) I expect to feel a very real financial penalty.

    I don't think there's very much I can do about it.
    I know there's a tendency on PB to characterise Ed's Labour party as the British Syriza, but I really can't see there being any substantive difference in the taxation levels implemented plans by either main party - certainly not for people such as you in the middle-income range. In short, I really don't think you need worry.
    Thanks, I wish I could share your optimism, but I disagree.

    We rehearsed Labour tax moves on here the other day; their stated policy is to shift toward increasing tax rather than cutting spending to solve the deficit. Although, personally, I think they'll probably borrow as much as they can get away with.

    I think the 40p band would be frozen. There would probably be no further real uplifts in the basic IT threshold. My pension savings limits would be cut (again) and fuel duty increased. And nothing on inheritance tax, although the Tories probably won't do much on that either.

    More seriously, due to their macro-economic management of the country (including mansion taxes, 50p top rate, increases in corporation tax and increases in Employer NI) I wouldn't be surprised to see the economy suffer and my salary growth stagnate over time.

    I'd expect to be several thousand pounds worse off over five years. Possibly a lot more.
    I fear sticky fingers will be stuck into pensions ( yes we remember Gordon), which really pisses me off as it's tax on the virtuous activity of saving for your old age. I may be wrong, I hope I am but I doubt it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    MalcG/RobD The US is certainly great if you have money and can afford insurance, cheaper house prices and lower taxes so you can keep more of your money. Although it does not have the welfare states and public healthcare most developed nations do it does have food stamps, some public housing, medicare, medicaid etc
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Apparently the SNP have opened a second election shop in East Dunbartonshire.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    If any Tories are around could they say whether this second coming of 'The Big Society' has been researched? I cannot for the life of me imagine it winning a single vote.

    So what am I missing?

    You and I share very different political views, Roger, but I honestly have no idea either.

    My best guess is that it's Cameron trying to inject a bit of the stronger/big society positive sunny optimism stuff he pushed from 2005-2008 into the campaign and manifesto.

    My understanding is that he has a concern that just blindly sticking to "long-term economic plan" until polling day might be a bit uninspiring.
    The BBC explained today that there are 15 million people who volunteer for all sorts of community service including school governors, charity organisations and the like and that this policy would apply to all people working in Companies with 250 or more employees and the public sector, though trade union work would not apply. It is welcomed by the CBI and whilst it may have merits its hardly an eye catcher
    I used to work for a Big 4 consultancy. They offered this 2 days per year off for volunteering as standard as part of their "flexi" benefits package.

    Increasingly, many larger firms do.

    The better (And more US) law firms do this. Still a 2200 chargeable hour requirement of course...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Second Lib Dem PEB.

    And it's another one based around driving a car around.

    WTF.
  • Surely the very last thing the Scottish Tories are going to do is to vote Labour "tactically". They're far more likely surely to vote SNP so as to defeat Labour. Well at least that would be my thinking if I lived North of the Border, Heaven forbid.

    I did (Edinburgh) in the 1960's and I would vote SNP today to keep labour out
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    For the cricket fans on here, here's a ridiculous catch from the IPL:
    https://vine.co/v/eBVx1IIUg6A
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    jayfdee said:

    MikeL said:

    FTSE closes at all time record high - 7089.

    Yes and on Monday I will convert to cash a large part of my portfolio,fill up my cash isa, and Mrs Jayfdee cash ISA, use up all my capital gains allowance including realising some losses, maybe buy some euros to keep under the bed, and then hunker down until it is all over.
    Any other suggestions to make myself Milliproof welcome.

    When Scotland voted No the FTSE went on a month long crash losing 10% of it's value and didn't recover that level until 4 months later.

    Do you think the market was actually reacting to Scotland voting No?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    @MP_SE - EdM sacked Thornberry because he is a complete tit. The idea that all working class people drive vans and hang England flags out of their windows is absurd, and it is condescending in the extreme. That bollocks he spouted about thinking "Respect" when he sees a white van was just moronic.

    I grew up in a working class family. There were no flags in the house or in the houses of anyone else we knew. Working class people, like most people in this country, are patriotic to a greater or lesser degree. For some, it will be hugely important, for others a lot less so - rather like everyone really.

    Members of the working class who are intensely patriotic have always tended to vote Tory. That's how the Tories won elections when the working class was in the majority. They were also the working class Tories who helped to deliver Mrs Thatcher her victories. The Tories lost that vote in the 90s. UKIP may well get it now.

    As for England's past, there are great bits, good bits and not so good bits. We all look at events differently.





  • I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!

    And you think this is in jest !!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!

    What about PB Hodges'?????
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    PeterfromP At Holyrood next year though when the UK government is not at stake far more Tories will vote Labour on the constituency level and Tory on the regional list to try and deny the SNP another majority
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/585162213670944768

    Milngavie is in East Dunbartonshire for those who don't know the geography. It's also one of the poshest suburbs of Glasgow full of £1m+ properties.

    I couldn't help noticing that we have allowed the Scots to live in English style houses. And the ungrateful wretches still want independence.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015

    I have hard Ed is bringing in a PB Tory tax if he wins!

    I know you're a staunch supporter, but Ed really shouldn't have than affect on you.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Here's John Curtice view:

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/could-tactical-voting-scupper-the-snp/

    My seat, Stirling, is a good example of how difficult for tactical voting to have an impact. SNP will likely get over 40%, SLAB and the Tories will likely get 20-25% each.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Writing during the 2006 football World Cup, Mr Thomas said: "I agree it is totally sickening the number of English flags to be seen around Wales. It really shows the level our society has been infiltrated by immigrants who aren't ready to integrate."

    Replace that with say Pakistani flags seen in England and Farage (or a random UKIP'er for that matter), it would be headline news rather than buried away under "Candidate suggested cars be damaged". Strange how the headline writers for the BBC never manage to fit the word Labour in either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    calum said:

    Here's John Curtice view:

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/could-tactical-voting-scupper-the-snp/

    My seat, Stirling, is a good example of how difficult for tactical voting to have an impact. SNP will likely get over 40%, SLAB and the Tories will likely get 20-25% each.

    I love Curtice analysis :D
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    I was in Scotland for two weeks in the run up to the referendum, and found people very reticent to express opinions in public. The polls were quite inaccurate, as it turned out. No doubt the SNP are on the up, but may again not do as well as the polls are suggesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar Calum Well even in Stirling if Labour got 25% and 2/3 of Tories tactically voted Labour, that would give Labour 42.5% and the seat
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    "BBC News is looking for the biggest amateur general election nerd. " o_O
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    @MP_SE - EdM sacked Thornberry because he is a complete tit. The idea that all working class people drive vans and hang England flags out of their windows is absurd, and it is condescending in the extreme. That bollocks he spouted about thinking "Respect" when he sees a white van was just moronic.

    I grew up in a working class family. There were no flags in the house or in the houses of anyone else we knew. Working class people, like most people in this country, are patriotic to a greater or lesser degree. For some, it will be hugely important, for others a lot less so - rather like everyone really.

    Members of the working class who are intensely patriotic have always tended to vote Tory. That's how the Tories won elections when the working class was in the majority. They were also the working class Tories who helped to deliver Mrs Thatcher her victories. The Tories lost that vote in the 90s. UKIP may well get it now.

    As for England's past, there are great bits, good bits and not so good bits. We all look at events differently.





    I never said all working class drive white vans or hang England flags out the window. But constantly attacking people who choose to hang an England flag out the window, post sneering pictures of white vans or branding people bigots for having genuine concerns about immigration will not boost support amonst large sections of the working class population. The liberal elite which infest Labour wish to force their progressive policies down working class people's throats and when they disagree they are insulted. This has happened time and time again.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Calum Well even in Stirling if Labour got 25% and 2/3 of Tories tactically voted Labour, that would give Labour 42.5% and the seat

    Unless Labour is on 25% and the Tories on 20%, in which case your scenario only yields a losing vote of 38-39%
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Calum Well even in Stirling if Labour got 25% and 2/3 of Tories tactically voted Labour, that would give Labour 42.5% and the seat

    Any Tory who did that is handing the GE to Miliband. Crazy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    Writing during the 2006 football World Cup, Mr Thomas said: "I agree it is totally sickening the number of English flags to be seen around Wales. It really shows the level our society has been infiltrated by immigrants who aren't ready to integrate."

    Replace that with say Pakistani flags seen in England and Farage (or a random UKIP'er for that matter), it would be headline news rather than buried away under "Candidate suggested cars be damaged". Strange how the headline writers for the BBC never manage to fit the word Labour in either.

    Edit on the final point...looks like they have changed it partially. Appears as two different headlines, neither of which actually note the real issue with what he said.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    @MP_SE - EdM sacked Thornberry because he is a complete tit. The idea that all working class people drive vans and hang England flags out of their windows is absurd, and it is condescending in the extreme. That bollocks he spouted about thinking "Respect" when he sees a white van was just moronic.

    I grew up in a working class family. There were no flags in the house or in the houses of anyone else we knew. Working class people, like most people in this country, are patriotic to a greater or lesser degree. For some, it will be hugely important, for others a lot less so - rather like everyone really.

    Members of the working class who are intensely patriotic have always tended to vote Tory. That's how the Tories won elections when the working class was in the majority. They were also the working class Tories who helped to deliver Mrs Thatcher her victories. The Tories lost that vote in the 90s. UKIP may well get it now.

    As for England's past, there are great bits, good bits and not so good bits. We all look at events differently.





    I seemed to remember she only got boot after giving an interview defending this tweet, where she made matters far worse than the actual tweet itself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    TimT I was giving the Tories 25% at the upper end of Calum's scale
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Felix Why? Sturgeon has made clear she will vote down a Cameron government and install Miliband as PM even if Labour has fewer seats than the Tories, a Labour or SNP MP makes no difference to Cameron's chances of being PM, though I agree tactical voting is more likely at Holyrood next year
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    No Labour incumbent in Stirling.

    Open goal for SNP.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Calum Well even in Stirling if Labour got 25% and 2/3 of Tories tactically voted Labour, that would give Labour 42.5% and the seat

    For what its worth I don't know any Tories who would vote Labour to keep the SNP out. As SLAB and the Tories will be level pegging how do they decide which party gets this theoretical Unionist vote? At the end of the day Tories and SLAB hate each other more than the SNP, particularly as this is already a nasty national campaign.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    "BBC News is looking for the biggest amateur general election nerd. " o_O

    Pulpstar said:

    "BBC News is looking for the biggest amateur general election nerd. " o_O

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    ScotsTory said:

    Long time lurker here but finally registered so I can post.

    Welcome!

    We are desperately short of Scottish Tories on the site...
    Ha Ha Ha ......... Scotland is very short of Tories
    18% -only 7 points behind Labour. And may I remind you the Tories kept a SNP minority Government in power.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT I was giving the Tories 25% at the upper end of Calum's scale

    In which case, why would the Tories vote SLAB and vice versa if their candidates are level pegging. Tactical voting is more likely to occur if there is a clear challenger, not if two challengers are neck and neck. And Tories are in any case not likely to vote SLAB, as SNP is preferable in terms of overall chances of a Con led government.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    "Replace that with say Pakistani flags seen in England and Farage (or a random UKIP'er for that matter), it would be headline news rather than buried away under "Candidate suggested cars be damaged".

    Well, the Labour candidate for Ceredigion has made headline news. BBC Wales have it as the main headline, with Labour mentioned.

    What more do you want?

    This is a no hope seat in which Labour will struggle to hold the deposit. I would have more sympathy for the Labour candidate if he hadn't begun the mudslinging, but -- really -- this is just some dumb remarks he made as a student.

    It's not like he trashed an Oxford restaurant, or burnt down a cactus farm as a student
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    "Police were told a burglar alarm had gone off at the scene of the Hatton Garden safety deposit raid - but decided it did not require a response."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32253724


    "All monitored intruder alarm systems are assigned a Level 1 status when they are first installed - i.e. the police respond immediately when the ARC has confirmed an activation, as outlined above.
    In the Original ACPO Policy if the police are called to respond to 2 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response would fall to Level 2. Since the introduction of the ACPO 2004 Policy, this Level 2 response is no longer employed by nearly all police constabularies. Instead, if the police are called to respond to 3 false alarms within any 12 month period, the police response will fall to Level 3 and police response would be withdrawn."


    http://www.ciaalarms.co.uk/intruder-alarms/monitoring/police-response

    If that happened I am pretty sure (professionally) that the insurers would have to be notified as the insured's would be in breach of policy conditions.
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