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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotland could lead to tactical voting on a scale never seen before
I find some of the above numbers quite startling and a huge reminder of the massive political divide that exists now in Scotland. That such large proportion of voters indicate that they could make such a tactical switch is totally unprecedented.
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If the SNP are getting swings before tactical voting of 19% in No-friendly areas and 24% in Yes-friendly areas as Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling found, tactical voting is only going to relevant to a couple of seats.
SNP winning a seat instead of Labour helps the Conservatives.
I just don't see tactical voting happening on any great scale.
LD, LAB and SNP are all campaigning of a platform of milking English private sector taxpayers and homeowners to fund Scottish social and economic failure.
The practical outcome will be little different regardless.
Presumably the Conservatives will be from places like Edinburgh, Stirling where there are enough of them to make it appear as if they have half a shot... (We know they don't but 'ahead of the SNP here' or close to kind of makes it appear you do.
So you are then asking them what would they do in Coatbridge or Glasgow NE where the perceived chance for the Conservatives is absolutely zero...
It takes a special kind of a dimwit in an English constituency to vote for a candidate who wants to pick their pockets and send cash over the border to Northern Britain.
No doubt in the style of MacPherson at the Treasury, all bets are off, in order to prevent the "SNP threat" as the BBC subtitle it, destabilising the British State.
No doubt it will stop Salmond winning in Gordon, then again, perhaps not :-)
Also today's campaign, referred to as Labour's attack on the SNP "black hole" as the BBC neutrally portray it, seems to ignore the agreed terms of the Smith Commission;
The Smith Report -which all parties have signed up to quite clearly states
“The Barnett Formula will continue to be used to determine the remaining block grant. New rules to define how it will be adjusted at the point when powers are transferred and thereafter will be agreed by the Scottish and UK Governments and put in place prior to the powers coming into force. These rules will ensure that neither the Scottish nor UK Governments will lose or gain financially from the act of transferring a power.”
The last sentence seems to me to illuminate the black hole in Labour's thinking whatever the economic truth turns out to be.
They're probably wanting to vote SNP so that Scotland goes independent and the English stop sending cash over the border to Northern Britain.
The SNP want FFA, which is not what the Smith Commission recommends. If you get FFA, you don't get Smith.
And with FFA, the numbers are £7.6bn short
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/10/exclusive-hillary-clinton-to-launch-presidential-campaign-sunday-en-route-to-iowa-source
Upstages Rubio's announcement for trying to be defeated by Hillary on Monday.
Two potential Lab holds against the tide (due to TV) might be the very similar Dunbartonshire West [13/8] & Motherwell & Wishaw [7/4]. But I'm not investing even at these odds.
And @SandyRentool does not appear to be recognising that SLAB is fighting for its very existence. If they ever want to rule in Holyrood again they cannot let the SNP whitewash the Westminster Seats.
Having presented the "black hole", he then said Labour wouldn't allow it...
Surely this would be a mandate for another referendum and leaving the UK.
I for one can not wait for them to go.
Can not believe why so many on here were so worried last September.
Begone
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/political-snog-marry-avoid-leader-5485039
They are therefore caught between a rock and a black hole. Fortunately for them, most of their support is now so swivel-eyed, they can't tell the difference. So that's alright then.
Particularly as anyone voting tactically in the constituency can cast their true preference for the regional top-up list.
10/04/2015 16:55
Labour candidate: People who fly England flags are 'simpletons and casual racists' tgr.ph/1CzH8YC
I think Nige's comment says it all about Labour. IF Labour win the election, UKIP will be in a very very strong position to hoover up an awful lot of working class northern votes when they realise that Labour despises everything they believe in.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/586553362100973568
Some interesting points being made on scotgoespop, too.
Isam, this refers to a Welsh Labour candidate, who is talking about flying England flags in Wales.
Although I am not a great one for flags, it seems that either the Welsh flag or the Union Jack (depending on inclination) might be more reasonable choices if you want to fly a flag in Ceredigion.
After all, I don't expect to see the Welsh Flag flying over Canvey Island.
EDIT: In fact, having read a bit of the article it's worse than I thought. He's actually complaining about English people living in Wales wanting to remain English. Does anyone remember the Tebbit Test?
That would seem to suggest that the ideal electoral system would be a single constituency for the whole country that would deliver 100 MPs to whoever got the highest share of the vote, irrespective of whether first place was 5% or 55%.
I assume that is not what you propose.
No government is ever judged by its manifesto promises. It is judged by whether it is able to better the living standards of its people, and to ensure their safety. All manifestos an d political parties have that as their goal, and manifestos merely suggest different methods to achieve that goal.
And no manifesto is able to predict the 'events' - most of which come from outside the UK or, indeed, the government's control.
Finally, in a constituency FPTP system, I am electing a representative. Someone to whom my community has delegated powers for a limited period of time. By voting I am specifically empowering him or her to act on my behalf.
If 53% of Tories and 36% of SLABbers back the Liberals, they still lose 43% to 35%.
It's still not even close.
Cameron desperately needs a total Lab wipeout in Scotland - ie to below 10 seats.
Lab gets 5 seats in Scotland - Cameron clear favourite to be PM.
Lab gets 12 seats in Scotland - then it's 50:50.
Over 12 then I make Miliband favourite.
Ed Miliband finally moves odds on.
Put simply, Swinson is gone. No if's no buts. I don't think we can even expect it to be close in 2010 it was Liberal 39%, Labour 34%, Tory 15%. SNP 10% but the scale of the movement is such that the result will be SNP around 45% and Labour around 25%, Tory 15% (because Tory votes don't change in Scotland) and Liberals on 10% higher than the Liberal average due to Swinson's incumbency.
The 10% might be high
Tactical voting will not be much of an issue but where it is, it is just as likely you get situations like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Labour voters backing the SNP to kick out the Tories as you will get people voting tactically to "stop the SNP".
Tactical voting isn't relevant in 90% of the Scottish seats where the SNP will record in excess of 45% of the vote. In reality Tactical Voting stops being relevant around 40% vote share and the SNP are well beyond there in most constituencies.
Oxford is not in Wales. Would you be happy if a Tory MP said the same thing about a Welsh flag in a shop in Aberaeron?
Current price 36-40
30-34 would get you 15; 50-54 = 60.
Any sellers here
My father flew a Welsh flag when he lived in the English East Midlands.
I thought it was sad (on many levels).
You live in the US, I gather, RobD. Do you :"celebrate your identity as an Englishman" by flying a Union Jack outside your condo?
If you want to "celebrate" being English, there are so many more creative and wonderful ways in which to do it, surely?
But I am prepared to defend the principle that it's pretty crappy to use what someone said 9 years ago - when they were a fresh faced student - against them in an election campaign.
Do you think it's fair game, sam?
I would think you would be very much in favour of this.
1. In many seats, one or more of the unionist parties is virtually non-existent; there simply aren't tactical votes to squeeze.
2. In a lot of seats, the SNP is coming from way back either in percentage terms or position. Will voters know that they're living in a marginal? (Yes, the SNP will be putting out 'winning here' leaflets but they would do that, wouldn't they?)
3. Even if voters do think they're in an SNP-vulnerable marginal, do they know who to tactically vote for - if the SNP is up 30%, that'll have come from all over the place and the party that won last time isn't necessarily the best-placed to stop them this time, particularly in Lab-Con seats or LD-held seats, for example.
Short of an explicit anti-SNP alliance, I can see huge wastage in 'tactical voting gone wrong' and little difference to the result. And if there were an explicit unionist pact, it would solidify the SNP's position like nothing else (indeed, nothing *has* solidified the SNP's position like last September's unionist alliance).
Perhaps they should be.
Further degrading the manifesto isn't a step in the right direction.
Rather than empowering parties, I'd sooner see total fragmentation and an altogether looser arrangement. Better the Roman Senate than the Bundestag.
Effectively the Westminster Parties have already signed away Scottish contributions towards the Westminster Debt Pile and "UK Wide" spending (which is generally London spending).
These will need to be funded by rUK after FFA.
Pong, I think the problem is that the Labour candidate started this by dragging up a quote that Plaid Cymru candidate made about "English Nazis" in 2001.
This is Plaid Cymru's retaliation.
Probably all this muck-throwing by Plaid and Labour means that Ceredigion is going to end up as the LibDem's safest seat.
If you are the kind of person who seriously believes the white working class drives around in white vans and likes nothing more than waving England flags you really do not know much about the white working class, which - in reality - comes in all shapes and sizes and is home to a wide variety of views.
Just a little top up to spice up GE night even more as I don't fancy getting involved with Orkney Shetland, Renfrewshire, Edi South, DCT on either side that heavily.
What the Tories are doing with this 3 day volunteering thing is beyond me, as is the resitting of SATs tests as a policy deemed releasable to the news cycle. The Fallon quote was a cock up let's be honest, and detracted from the Trident message ( which was actually only "we'll buy one extra boat"). The six year old passed out next to Cameron was on to something.
Labour's non Dom thing prob played well with its target audience but they made an utter Horlicks launching it. Now Ed is in Scotland, implausibly channeling his inner Bundesbank, lecturing the SNP on the virtues of fiscal rectitude and nobody will believe a word he's saying. Oh and he's frozen/capped/constrained ( perm any two from three just like gas or rents ) train fares.
I can literally remember nothing about the Lib's campaign other than Nick Clegg walking through a wooded area with Ed Davey.
UKIP are making the Tories look like a Mandelsoneque campaign in comparison. it's just vapid and shows that sans Nigel there's sod all ( where is Carswell??).
The SNP are doing a lap of honour and in fairness I think they could announce the slaughter of the first born and it won't make any difference in 2015, landslide doesn't cover it I think.
Plaid/Greens Respect - well I'm bored now anyway who the hell cares? ( Though Plaid's Ceredigion candidate must be starring in a reality show for a bet - surely)
Basically I'm not impressed though at least Labour appear arsed about it in fairness. Innumerate, but arsed.
This is the election where what's NOT in the manifesto is the bit to look for, because they are all giving me the impression of tippy toeing around the big big issues because they are all scared we'll get the heeeby jeebies if we are told something approaching the truth. Come on Tories: where are the £12bn welfare cuts coming from then? Labour stop trying to con us you can get mansions, and non doms, and bankers to raise the taxes you want to - 'cos they can't and we know it.
Feel better having got that lit off my chest!
0-0=100pts
1 goal = 50pts
2 goals = 30pts
3 goals = 20pts
4 goals = 10pts
5 or more = 0pts
The blurb was that we found the old detector in a cupboard while doing the spring cleaning
'Covered in dust and beginning to rust, but still as trusty as the day we bought it'
Anyway, if they come down here to west Cornwall with their St George's Crosses the deepest darkest corners of Wales are likely to look like a bastion of tolerance and free expression... I'm not sure I've ever seen one flying here.
Tactical voting – is the general populace savvy enough to know what a marginal seat is, whether they live in one and how to manipulate a desired outcome?
Personally, I have my doubts.
It is of course the function of the government not to defend the country and not to impoverish the people. It is also true, if tautological, that the government cannot control events beyond its control. Nevertheless, the government is not elected in this country. It is appointed. It is in fact unlawful for the government to slavishly follow the policies on which its constituent party was elected (Roberts v Hopwood [1925] AC 578 (HL); Bromley LBC v GLC [1983] 1 AC 768, 831, 853 (HL) per Lord Diplock & Lord Brandon of Oakbrook).
People vote in general elections for members of the legislature, whose function is to pass laws and to vote supply to the executive government. It seems perfectly sensible to hold elected members of a legislature to promises as to the legislation and taxes for which they will or will not vote. Members of the House of Commons have quite different functions to the executive government, and it is quite wrong to equate the two.
I like the cross of St George. I'm as proud of England as I am of Great Britain. I've never felt the need to display it myself, but I like to see it on public buildings and in connection with sporting events.
I am quite sure in my own mind that as part of responding to demands for more devolution and the English democratic deficit.the Labour Party would be happy to balkanise England
Having said that, I'm a bit suspicious of men waving a flag and a pint outside a pub. I doubt it enhances my country particularly.
The picture seems to indicate that Farage is doing what he does best and is down to his last refuge.
I expect a little flag flying planned myself at the World Cup match between Argentina and Namibia in Leicester. I have a Namibian flag, but also a Falkland lles one...
This volunteering thing. What a load of total, second rate, uninspiring bollocks.(See also school tests and porn filters).
Pull your finger out and give us something worthwhile. I plan to vote for you in the Forest of Dean but this is a poor poor campaign so far.
Mr. Foxinsox, patriotic of you, old bean.