politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Private UKIP poll has Farage behind South Thanet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Private UKIP poll has Farage behind South Thanet
Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election.
Comments
-
Does this match the timing of the claim that Labour was close getting leaked to Britain's most-read political blog?0
-
Second
0 -
Regarding party spending during the short campaign, I assume that is spending by the candidate and the party machinery. It cant reasonably apply to camp followers and supporters otherwise a malicious attempts to could be made to blow the parties budget in wasteful and inefficient ways but notionally in their name. What prevents the sort of PAC approach we see in the USA where camp followers at least nominally unconnected with the party machine raise money and campaign for their candidate ?0
-
Yet another poll by another pollster with the SNP at 45%.0
-
Who'd have thought that a poll putting Ukip in touching distance of winning a seat would be seen as bad news for the purples?
It was pointed out last night, but the Mail lets itself down with the line chart.0 -
Farage losing Thanet South would be an unmitigated disaster for ukip in both medium & long term. In fact, I predict it will spell the end of them as a political force.
Some of the Labour looking posters & Mr Smithson said Con-Lab wouldn't tactical on Farage. Not so. I'd definitely vote for the other main party rather than Farage but it does look to be a 3-way race right now. Loads of tories or labour will vote anything to stop Farage.
Terrible SLAB poll again. We've become so used to them they don't raise an eyebrow.
Meantime all other polls show no movement from the debate. Reckon that's because no-one watched. OK so 7m said they did, just 2m more than Question Time each week. But if your talking to a political pollster are you really going to admit to not watching or switching over? No.
Lets see how things stand a week from now after Easters out the system.0 -
ARSE ....
Thanet South - UKIP GAIN ....0 -
ps knew Farage was in trouble when he came out with guff about the tories giving up there etc. He's in danger of losing and he knows it.0
-
Respectfully, Mr W, I disagree.JackW said:ARSE ....
Thanet South - UKIP GAIN ....
I've had UK on 1 seat for a while (even in the competition a few weeks ago). Carswell will win, but he would have won as an independent as well & I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up as one within the next 5 years.0 -
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
0 -
In proper Kevin Keegan mode, I would absolutely love some Tories to vote Labour to stop Ukip and ultimately help put Ed in Downing Street.Purseybear said:Some of the Labour looking posters & Mr Smithson said Con-Lab wouldn't tactical on Farage. Not so. I'd definitely vote for the other main party rather than Farage but it does look to be a 3-way race right now. Loads of tories or labour will vote anything to stop Farage.
I've got to the point with the Tories and their supporters that I really do hope is Ed is PM on May 8th.0 -
How very dare you Madam !! .... My ARSE will not be disrespected.Charles said:
Respectfully, Mr W, I disagree.JackW said:ARSE ....
Thanet South - UKIP GAIN ....
I've had UK on 1 seat for a while (even in the competition a few weeks ago). Carswell will win, but he would have won as an independent as well & I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up as one within the next 5 years.
The ComRes poll is flawed because yet again there are no named candidates and although this is a high profile constituency there is little doubt that naming candidates would see a bounce for Nigel - Voters enjoy having a popular high profile party leader as their candidate.
Farage is also aided by this poll as tactical anti kippers are in a complete quandary as to who to vote for. Further if UKIP continue to slip nationally even into single figures then I would still confidently expect Farage, Carswell and possibly even the "Traitorous Pig Dog" to win.
0 -
It could be my imagination but Ed does seem to be deveoping human form. A shape and personality is definitely emerging. Todays Sun front page wont have done him any harm. It serves to fill in more of the juigsaw. I'd expect his ratings to gradually rise.
The Nicola affair is interesting. Someone said to me yesterday it was likely to be a Grant Shapps dirty trick which though doubtful shows the danger of a political party employing a used car dealer0 -
First - Easter w/e post-debate polling is I think probably to be viewed with caution. Second, it shows less of a boost to Labour or UKIP than might have been expected. Third, with the race so close ought we to be paying more attention to age and regional splits as well as the issue of those registered to vote. I'm not clear how much, if at all, the polling companies are able to take this into account.
Finally, I suspect we need about a week for the polls to start and setttle - and even then, 'event dear boy.....'0 -
A more balanced headline might be all three parties within the margin of error, Thanet S. is a dead heat
0 -
Good morning all, and Happy Easter!
There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html0 -
Roger.. a good smear..worthy of you.0
-
It looks like that to me too. I suspect that the anti-kippers will tactically vote Labour rather than the Tory kipper lite candidate. Labour look the value.Indigo said:A more balanced headline might be all three parties within the margin of error, Thanet S. is a dead heat
Neither the debates nor the leaked memo seem to have changed much, but I reckon campaigns rarely do. They are mostly score draws.
0 -
-
Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written0 -
Doddy
"Roger.. a good smear..worthy of you."
From the master of the genre I take that as a compliment.0 -
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:0 -
I don't think it was aimed at the economically illiterate.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written0 -
With the greatest respect that isn't really what I wrote. I said many Labour & Tories will vote tactically to stop Farage in Thanet South. I don't think it will happen much anywhere else. This is about Farage who's loathed by left and right in equal measure.tlg86 said:
In proper Kevin Keegan mode, I would absolutely love some Tories to vote Labour to stop Ukip and ultimately help put Ed in Downing Street.Purseybear said:Some of the Labour looking posters & Mr Smithson said Con-Lab wouldn't tactical on Farage. Not so. I'd definitely vote for the other main party rather than Farage but it does look to be a 3-way race right now. Loads of tories or labour will vote anything to stop Farage.
0 -
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
0 -
Which by the way is why JackW's wrong. Naming Farage will have the opposite effect. Look at his unpopularity ratings.0
-
Let's not exaggerate, they represent a good 10% or 15% of voters, and they'll getting people elected to the European Parliament (whose members are much more influential than backbench MPs) and gradually building up council base. Winning Westminster seats this time (except incumbent defectors) was and is a stretch, but council seats and good second places will translate into Westminster seats eventually.Purseybear said:Farage losing Thanet South would be an unmitigated disaster for ukip in both medium & long term. In fact, I predict it will spell the end of them as a political force.
0 -
May God bless you, and Her Majesty.JackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.0 -
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.0 -
Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.0 -
You wretched ARSE denier.Purseybear said:Which by the way is why JackW's wrong. Naming Farage will have the opposite effect. Look at his unpopularity ratings.
By your reckoning on the basis of favourability/popularity ratings alone Ed Miliband would lose his constituency.
0 -
Either that or fizzle out.edmundintokyo said:
Let's not exaggerate, they represent a good 10% or 15% of voters, and they'll getting people elected to the European Parliament (whose members are much more influential than backbench MPs) and gradually building up council base. Winning Westminster seats this time (except incumbent defectors) was and is a stretch, but council seats and good second places will translate into Westminster seats eventually.Purseybear said:Farage losing Thanet South would be an unmitigated disaster for ukip in both medium & long term. In fact, I predict it will spell the end of them as a political force.
Farage looked sweaty and nervous on Thursday because he realises that this is his best shot at political influence. UKIP knows (for all its rhetoric) that Britain's laws are made in Westminster. Farage failing electorally again would be the end of the line.0 -
Hats off to the Mail comparing Euro Election results with poll results. They must be channelling the soon to be departed Lib Dems!0
-
And a Left wing teachers union just happens to pop up with a plea on child poverty, all vested interests Roger which ever way you look at it.Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
0 -
Thank you ....RobD said:
May God bless you, and Her Majesty.JackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
And may my ARSE go with and forever be with you too.
0 -
So no laws affecting the UK are made in the EU?foxinsoxuk said:
Either that or fizzle out.edmundintokyo said:
Let's not exaggerate, they represent a good 10% or 15% of voters, and they'll getting people elected to the European Parliament (whose members are much more influential than backbench MPs) and gradually building up council base. Winning Westminster seats this time (except incumbent defectors) was and is a stretch, but council seats and good second places will translate into Westminster seats eventually.Purseybear said:Farage losing Thanet South would be an unmitigated disaster for ukip in both medium & long term. In fact, I predict it will spell the end of them as a political force.
Farage looked sweaty and nervous on Thursday because he realises that this is his best shot at political influence. UKIP knows (for all its rhetoric) that Britain's laws are made in Westminster. Farage failing electorally again would be the end of the line.0 -
We all know Thanet S is no shoo-in for UKIP so this isn't news at all. It's also perfectly reasonable to keep private polling in house.
This is simply the Daily Mail knifing Farage and UKIP in the back. Thanks Nige, you've been really useful to us helping keep the Tories where we want them, but we don't want you doing too well..... With friends like The Mail who needs enemies.0 -
I've got a tear in my eye... :')JackW said:
Thank you ....RobD said:
May God bless you, and Her Majesty.JackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
And may my ARSE go with and forever be with you too.0 -
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.0 -
Nigel Farage, it seems....tlg86 said:Who'd have thought that a poll putting Ukip in touching distance of winning a seat would be seen as bad news for the purples
If Labour were smart, they would work to have Farage lose - by stopping working the seat. Farage's UKIP has the potential to cause their second tsunami of losses after Scotland. Farage can tap into those decades of neglect that Labour has shown for its red-rosette-on-a-donkey ballot fodder, in a way that the Tories never will. Farage has said he has gone if he doesn't get elected. Farage has made UKIP his own vanity project (by booting out those who don't agree with him). So cut off the head of the snake. End the threat.
If Labour were smart.... Big if.
0 -
Fantastic news! Well done to all the charities and volunteers working in this vital community, and well done to the government for the law change that allows the Job Centres to promote food banks to their clients. Truly the Big Society in action, I would hope that you are decent enough to contribute in your local community? ;-)Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....
0 -
If only "we" made cake to begin with. Cake is made (in significant quantities) only by the financial services industry and by the odd (usually very odd) New Technology inventor-cum-marketeer - who gets it wrong half the time, anyway.Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Indeed, being socially adept is probably a sign of an inability to make "cake".
0 -
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.0 -
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
48 hours 38 minutes 28 seconds0 -
Labour should look at heir record on food banks and hang their heads in shame. How did they allow all these people now using food banks to go hungry when they were in power?Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....
Food banks: a great Coalition triumph.
0 -
It's so bad that Labour must be at least 1000% ahead in the polls and sweeping Scotland up...oh wait....Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.0 -
Stop thinking about Con GAIN Bolsover then ....RobD said:
I've got a tear in my eye... :')JackW said:
Thank you ....RobD said:
May God bless you, and Her Majesty.JackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
And may my ARSE go with and forever be with you too.
0 -
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.0 -
Someone fetch the smelling salts... please!!JackW said:
Stop thinking about Con GAIN Bolsover then ....RobD said:
I've got a tear in my eye... :')JackW said:
Thank you ....RobD said:
May God bless you, and Her Majesty.JackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
And may my ARSE go with and forever be with you too.
0 -
I did not promote globalisation, chummy. It was that Clinton bugger.Indigo said:
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.
0 -
I admit to finding an election campaign boring. It may be an sin on here but it's true. There's a lot of supposition out there but few real facts as to why people vote the way they do.
For example, has been any scientific studies on why voters vote for similar candidates to themselves - hence the importance of "I understand your problems".
Do men vote for men, do women vote for women? Do ethnic groups favour one of their own? Do white voters favour white candidates? suspect so but how big a factor is it? In some seats, all the candidates are Asian. That can hardly be coincidence, but has this effect been quantified?
Or do we just prefer to use gut feeling? You lot should be the experts, what are the facts?.0 -
Is that why there is so much less equality and wealth since 100 years ago? I'm afraid your either dishonest or ignorant and probably both to peddle such an absurd line.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.0 -
Last few days I have been reading "Nothing to Envy"MarqueeMark said:
Labour should look at heir record on food banks and hang their heads in shame. How did they allow all these people now using food banks to go hungry when they were in power?Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....
Food banks: a great Coalition triumph.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nothing-Envy-Lives-North-Korea/dp/184708141X
The descriptions of the North Korean famine of the nineties are shocking. No foodbanks there.0 -
"You wretched ARSE denier.
By your reckoning on the basis of favourability/popularity ratings alone Ed Miliband would lose his constituency."
I'm warming to Jack's ARSE. Compared to some of the right wing fruitcakes who have been posting lately at least it's not simply a wish list. I regret we haven't been allowed to scrutinize its internals but compared to the wild hysteria from the incontinent Nats that's a small price to pay0 -
Possibly your party shouldn't have elected Tony "Because the alternative to globalisation is isolation" Blair then.Innocent_Abroad said:
I did not promote globalisation, chummy. It was that Clinton bugger.Indigo said:
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.0 -
So how would you feed everyone if there's not enough cake?Innocent_Abroad said:
If only "we" made cake to begin with. Cake is made (in significant quantities) only by the financial services industry and by the odd (usually very odd) New Technology inventor-cum-marketeer - who gets it wrong half the time, anyway.Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Indeed, being socially adept is probably a sign of an inability to make "cake".
We are world leaders in high tech manufacturing technology too - look at BAE Systems, Airbus, Rolls Royce (x2), McLaren, Lotus, Aston Martin, Prodrive, 3/4 of the F1 teams as well as numerous other large car plants.
Yes Mr Brown put all his (Easter) eggs in one basket with financial services, and we all saw what happened when revenues fell off a cliff in that sector in 2008. The solution is to diversify and encourage investment, not to tax the golden goose to extinction as proposed by Miliband and his army of 1970s socialists.0 -
In 2009 , there were 2.3 million crisis loan applications made at social security offices.
People needing food.
0 -
I enjoy this site but the talk about tactical voting is nonsense, you lot assume the general electorate thinks the same way as the politically obsessed on here. People in Thanet S will either vote Farage or not, for 99% of them it won't be a tactical decision. I canvas hours a week in the neighbouring constituency, I have yet to hear the expression "tactical voting" anywhere but on here.
Fwiw I think Farage will win but it will be tight. The conservative campaign is poor, whoever thought Sol Campbell is a vote winner for floating tory voters is clueless.0 -
It's also a poll with an unusually narrow SNP lead over Labour (44-31). Subsamples, meh, but that applies to the Scottish subsamples leader comparison too. Basically everyone thought Nicola did well, but it hasn't affected VI visibly.chestnut said:
It appears to be set in stone.antifrank said:Yet another poll by another pollster with the SNP at 45%.
The YG has Sturgeon 17 points ahead of Ed on a UK wide basis on a forced choice for better leader this morning, while it's 70-22 in her favour in Scotland.
YouGov generally interesting on the impact of the debate from numeous angles. Those who saw the whole debate rate Miliband much more highly (44% positive vs 49% for Cameron, with a huge 17-point net gap), and there has been a further overall improvment in Ed's ratings to 33%, exactly the same as the party. Clegg and Farage did better among the viewers, while Cameron had a small net decline (-2). Miliband also beat Cameron by big margins on "most in touch" and "most genuine and authentic" among debate viewers. Viewers are also much more likely to find the campaign interesting (71% vs 49% generally), though of course people who are interested are far more likely to have watched.
Now it's possible to read the above as meaning that more Labour people watched the debate. But that in itself suggests greater commitment, which should give the Tories pause. In the next debate, Cameron isn't present, which may or may not prove a good thing for him.
0 -
That one has been quantified to some extend, I posted some links about it here a few months ago but I don't have them to hand. The short version is yes, but not to the extent it would overcome any party loyalty, and that gender is largely linked to salience. Women tend to be listened to and voted for on issues like education and health, men on issues like law & order and defense.CD13 said:Do men vote for men, do women vote for women? Do ethnic groups favour one of their own? Do white voters favour white candidates? suspect so but how big a factor is it? In some seats, all the candidates are Asian. That can hardly be coincidence, but has this effect been quantified?
0 -
I haven't been a Labour Party member since 1990, and have rarely voted for them since. Anyway, you must be the last man living who thinks that Blair is one of the Left. He himself doesn't, and didn't in 1997.Indigo said:
Possibly your party shouldn't have elected Tony "Because the alternative to globalisation is isolation" Blair then.Innocent_Abroad said:
I did not promote globalisation, chummy. It was that Clinton bugger.Indigo said:
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.0 -
Contemplating the demise of OGH is tantamount to treason.CarlottaVance said:Hats off to the Mail comparing Euro Election results with poll results. They must be channelling the soon to be departed Lib Dems!
"CarlottaVance, you have been found guilty of imagining the mortal destruction of the King of Political Blogs.
You will be taken from this place to ConHome and there upon an appointed time you will hung out to dry intellectually until you are a drop dead zombie.
May the gods of PB have mercy on your soul."
0 -
Ah! A follower of Moncrieffe of that ilk. I'm not sure I've ever met one of those beforeJackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor. 0 -
JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.0 -
Our friend Danny565 thinks Miliband is to the right of Blair.Innocent_Abroad said:
I haven't been a Labour Party member since 1990, and have rarely voted for them since. Anyway, you must be the last man living who thinks that Blair is one of the Left. He himself doesn't, and didn't in 1997.Indigo said:
Possibly your party shouldn't have elected Tony "Because the alternative to globalisation is isolation" Blair then.Innocent_Abroad said:
I did not promote globalisation, chummy. It was that Clinton bugger.Indigo said:
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.0 -
I realise that many may find the image of Cameron's daughter on the front of the Mail on Sunday to be so sweet as to risk inducing diabetes in their readers - but what a cute kid! She does look like she has come straight from a Mabel Lucy Attwell drawing....0
-
Better leader:
Cameron or Sturgeon:
Cameron: 39 (-3)
Sturgeon: 36 (+15)
Miliband or Sturgeon:
Miliband: 27(-2)
Sturgeon: 46 (+20)0 -
Ye gods !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Roger said:
I'm warming to Jack's ARSE. Compared to some of the right wing fruitcakes who have been posting lately at least it's not simply a wish list. I regret we haven't been allowed to scrutinize its internals but compared to the wild hysteria from the incontinent Nats that's a small price to pay
I've just been given the black spot by Rogerdamus.
All is lost. Man the lifeboats ....
Ed Miliband Will Be Prime Minister
0 -
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
0 -
Adherents of Sir Iain are a noble breed.Charles said:
Ah! A follower of Moncrieffe of that ilk. I'm not sure I've ever met one of those beforeJackW said:
Elizabeth II, Dei Gratia Britanniarum Regnorumque Suorum Ceterorum Regina, Consortionis Populorum Princeps, Fidei DefensorRobD said:
Are you a curious but loyal Jacobite who recognises the legitimacy and primacy of Elizabeth the Second, by Grace of God?JackW said:
HM the Queen is in liegeance the Jacobite successor.
0 -
Your theory is flawed in a 3 way marginal, how would those consider voting tactically decide? If people are savvy enough to vote tactically they're savvy enough to see the downside - you really think tories will vote for a 24 year old labour candidate? Likewise you think labourites will vote for a blazered tory with a yacht in the marina?Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
0 -
He may say that. I couldn't possibly comment. What is true is that ideas (like promoting food banks) which were seen as right-wing a generation ago are now considered to be "lefty".Indigo said:
Our friend Danny565 thinks Miliband is to the right of Blair.Innocent_Abroad said:
I haven't been a Labour Party member since 1990, and have rarely voted for them since. Anyway, you must be the last man living who thinks that Blair is one of the Left. He himself doesn't, and didn't in 1997.Indigo said:
Possibly your party shouldn't have elected Tony "Because the alternative to globalisation is isolation" Blair then.Innocent_Abroad said:
I did not promote globalisation, chummy. It was that Clinton bugger.Indigo said:
Christ on a bike. The left wing need to get real. You promoted globalisation, and now you have to live with it. You can't force businesses to do business here any more. If you take too much money, or make their executives too unwelcome, they will go somewhere else, there are dozens of countries, some as close as Ireland, practically begging businesses to move there and generate wealth for their economy.Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.
Under European Law, that EU you love so much, you cant stop the free movement of capital, companies will move their head office to where ever they can pay less tax, the current president of the EU was generous enough to set the rate of corporation tax in Luxembourg to 1% while he was in his old job.
You are confusing it with internationalism, a horse of a different colour.
0 -
That's a keeper.....blackburn63 said:
The amount of people that vote tactically in Thenet will be so small it's irrelevant
0 -
Yeah totally agree with you. Thats his best hope right now, that labour & tories won't sort out which of the two should beat him. It suits neither party for Farage to win but marginally better for Labour, though that could be a mistake.Indigo said:
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.0 -
Bugger! We're screwed!JackW said:
Ye gods !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Roger said:
I'm warming to Jack's ARSE. Compared to some of the right wing fruitcakes who have been posting lately at least it's not simply a wish list. I regret we haven't been allowed to scrutinize its internals but compared to the wild hysteria from the incontinent Nats that's a small price to pay
I've just been given the black spot by Rogerdamus.
All is lost. Man the lifeboats ....
Ed Miliband Will Be Prime Minister
Noel Coward said he preferred TRANSAT (the "French Line") because they "didn't bother with that women and children first nonsense"
Sauve qui peut!0 -
The Tories though can put out the leaflet that says they are best placed to decapitate Farage. Who says? Farage....Indigo said:
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
0 -
In a normal election sure, but in this one with every vote counting, there isn't the slightest chance Labour are going to concede a seat for the Tories even to stop Farage, it might be the seat they need to be independent of the SNP, or to be the party with the most seats. The Tories are in just the same position, they wont concede the seat to Labour, imagine the fuss if LD+CON=324 and they gave a seat to LAB.Purseybear said:
Yeah totally agree with you. Thats his best hope right now, that labour & tories won't sort out which of the two should beat him. It suits neither party for Farage to win but marginally better for Labour, though that could be a mistake.Indigo said:
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
If individuals can organise some shenanigans [eg Twickers!] then maybe the best bet is a constituency deal whereby labour drop out of thanet south in exchange for tories giving up in another labour target? Would be worth it to decapitate Farage.0 -
They clearly ARE best placed because Farage is saying the opposite. He's being trying to put about that the tories are giving up, which means they are close to beating him.MarqueeMark said:
The Tories though can put out the leaflet that says they are best placed to decapitate Farage. Who says? Farage....Indigo said:
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
I find with politics the best thing is to assume the exact opposite of what a politician says to be the truth.0 -
You are completely confused, likely caused by gratuitous gluttony of seasonal chocolate chomping this Easter Sunday.Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
Chris Patten was not a party leader but as Party Chairman acted as a lightening rod for unpopular Conservative policies in a seat long targeted by the Liberals where the antiTory vote coalesced behind the yellow peril alone.
Portillo's defeat was assisted by the poll in the "Observer" that clearly indicated Labour were within a striking distance of claiming the seat. In Thanet South no such single challenger is in place.
0 -
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. Unless the Big Two wake up and start having a sustainable long-term message to these people, then they are in serious danger. Right now they seem to think they can rely on good soundbites or comebacks. That might get them through the next election, but it won't work unless they actually deliver in addressing these voters' concerns.Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.0 -
The poll in the OP shows a dead heat, all parties are within the margin of error of each other, I don't think its safe to assume that anyone is in any position, and I think all parties are going to feel they are in with a chance, and so are not going to drop out or slow pedal it for anyone.Purseybear said:
They clearly ARE best placed because Farage is saying the opposite. He's being trying to put about that the tories are giving up, which means they are close to beating him.MarqueeMark said:
The Tories though can put out the leaflet that says they are best placed to decapitate Farage. Who says? Farage....Indigo said:
Which way will they tactically vote though, in a three way like Thanet S. its likely to cancel each other out, some think that is why Farage decide on that constituency to stand in.Purseybear said:Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
I find with politics the best thing is to assume the exact opposite of what a politician says to be the truth.0 -
Happy Easter and just a quick thought, is naming Farage a plus point in a Thanet South poll? He is a bit like marmite, one either loves or hates him.
The Sturgeon story is a gift to the SNP. The YES brigade simply think she is being smeared and are looking at SLAB and LibDems as possible source. Her star continues to rise.0 -
You are Geoff Hoon and I claim my share of your Italian-gubbermint pension!Monksfield said:
Trickledown! How quaint. I'm sorry but all current evidence is that the bigger the cake, the bigger the portion that the few feel they're entitled to - because they're worth it...Sandpit said:
Roger, you obviously think that a return to the divisive politics of the 1970s is just what we need right now.Roger said:Sandpit
"There must be something in the air when even Janet Daley can write a sensible column...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11515598/Class-war-vs-the-free-market-havent-we-been-here-before.html"
If you're a dyed in the wool Tory. It reads to me like the crap she always writes and is just as boringly written
Some of us think that if we make a bigger cake, we can all eat more cake.0 -
Al-Beeb had a really interesting doco on "Detriot Soup". Shame that we cannot have such social-capitalism in the UK. [Apparently the team-lead tries to replicate the same success in Nepal: I will await the outcome!]MarqueeMark said:
Labour should look at heir record on food banks and hang their heads in shame. How did they allow all these people now using food banks to go hungry when they were in power?Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....
Food banks: a great Coalition triumph.
:socialism-destroys-hope:0 -
I agree completely. But it involves making some tough choices which will be unpopular with significant sections of their core vote, so they won't take them. People continuously take comfort in comparisons with the SDP, but its idiotic, the SDP didn't offer anything that wasn't available from the other parties except a bit of nuance and slightly different emphasis. UKIP are offering the only socially conservative platform, and the only anti-immigration platform, and the only anti-EU platform, that is a substantial constituency that has no one else to vote for. At the moment they are hobbled by too many fruitcakes, and too few seats with candidates in second place that the voters believe have a chance of winning, that will change over time. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.JEO said:
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. Unless the Big Two wake up and start having a sustainable long-term message to these people, then they are in serious danger. Right now they seem to think they can rely on good soundbites or comebacks. That might get them through the next election, but it won't work unless they actually deliver in addressing these voters' concerns.Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.0 -
ICYMI from John Curtice telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11516371/David-Cameron-can-win-with-300-seats.html0
-
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.Indigo said:
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
0 -
YouGov has one of my favourite polling questions today:
Imagine you live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Straw Man, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?
Predictably the only group that is more Straw Man than Tin Man is Labour voters
Net Tin Man over Straw Man
All +22
Con +63
Lab -15
LD +34
Ukip +25
There will always be this big dividing line in politics - e.g. the stereotype is like when a Tory sees a starving man and will give him a fishing rod whereas the Labour type will give him handouts of fish for the rest of his life.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/mms0le3g9r/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-040415-Final.pdf0 -
Did you issue an Easter holiday ARSE yesterday? If so sorry I missed it.JackW said:Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
48 hours 38 minutes 28 seconds
Just an update from the so called ultra-marginal of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. In week one of the short campaign we received precisely zero election communications from any party. The only election related mail this week was the arrival on Thursday of 2 purple coloured postal vote cards.0 -
This is brilliant for the Tories in England:
http://news.sky.com/story/1458990/sturgeon-help-me-lock-cameron-out-of-no-100 -
Farage has quite a track record of failed Westminster elections. Six, I believe.Indigo said:
I agree completely. But it involves making some tough choices which will be unpopular with significant sections of their core vote, so they won't take them. People continuously take comfort in comparisons with the SDP, but its idiotic, the SDP didn't offer anything that wasn't available from the other parties except a bit of nuance and slightly different emphasis. UKIP are offering the only socially conservative platform, and the only anti-immigration platform, and the only anti-EU platform, that is a substantial constituency that has no one else to vote for. At the moment they are hobbled by too many fruitcakes, and too few seats with candidates in second place that the voters believe have a chance of winning, that will change over time. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.JEO said:
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. Unless the Big Two wake up and start having a sustainable long-term message to these people, then they are in serious danger. Right now they seem to think they can rely on good soundbites or comebacks. That might get them through the next election, but it won't work unless they actually deliver in addressing these voters' concerns.Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
0 -
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?SouthamObserver said:
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.Indigo said:
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
0 -
JEO said:
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. Unless the Big Two wake up and start having a sustainable long-term message to these people, then they are in serious danger. Right now they seem to think they can rely on good soundbites or comebacks. That might get them through the next election, but it won't work unless they actually deliver in addressing these voters' concerns.Purseybear said:JEO said:Purseybear said:
ukip have been sliding in the polls & have lost 40% of their support. thats not what anyone on political betting thinks or says, least of all the over-proportioned kippers on here but good solid plain fact. You can dislike it as much as you wish.Indigo said:
I agree completely. Anyone that thinks UKIP are going to go away, especially in a world of rising Islam is whistling to keep themselves happy.JEO said:
I constantly tear my hair out at those who underrate Farage. It's this complacency that will let UKIP in. Perhaps in the leafy commuter towns and the dinner party set he is despised, but there are vast numbers of Labour and Conservative voters that are in serious danger of defecting long term. Whenever an MP or journalist actually deigns to go out knocking on doors or interviewing people outside London, they are shocked at the level of potential UKIP support. .Purseybear said:JackW's comment is wrong because Farage doesn't start with the same supporter base as someone like Miliband. Farage needs to gain tory and labour voters & many of them loathe him.
You need to remember that naming candidates can work the other way. Look at decapitations like Chris Patten and 1997. Would the tories have won Tatton without Neil Hamilton? Obviously. Did enough peeps deliberately vote out Portillo? Of course. No they might not call it "tactical voting" [doh] but do ordinary voters do it. You betcha.
Farage is despised by many in the centre & that's why he's in trouble. of course there will be tactical voting against him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker
0 -
Dair's late night lessons in why Scotland is so much better than England are always a treat. I wish I did not miss so many of them. I particularly enjoyed his teachings on a "fair go" last night and how this specifically Scottish idea shaped Australia and Canada. But then I wondered about the "fair go" all the people who were dispossessed by these fair-minded, well-educated Scots got, as their land was appropriated, their cultures destroyed and their basic human rights removed. And then I thought about all the Scottish slave-owners in the southern United States and of the open discrimination practised on the Chinese in Hong Kong by its Scottish rulers; and I realised he was talking absolute crap. And that was before I started to contemplate the "fair go" afforded to Irish immigrants in Scotland by their well-educated protestant neighbours. But bless him anyway :-)0
-
We'll stick around. The vast majority of others will too.Indigo said:
That's one saved then. What about the other thousand of businessmen and women across the country ?SouthamObserver said:
I can't see Karen Brady moving West Ham to India. It would be great, but it's not going to happen. Stratford is far enough. A nice, new subsidised home from Boris and the government.Indigo said:
Because it would be so much better if those businessmen decided it would be better for their business to relocate to India or Malaysia, that would cure the problem with food banks and parents struggling right away.... oh wait!Roger said:Nearly a million people visiting food banks and rising.....kids going to school hungry because their parents are struggling.......
103 businessmen with an average income of over £5,000,000 write to the Telegraph telling them it's crucial for the Tories to win the election.....
I'm starting to think this might be the most important election in my lifetime.
0 -
On Straw Man versus Tin Man, this is the last time YouGov asked the question in Nov 2013:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jcjlhiejxs/YouGov-survey-Oz-Scarecrow-Tin-Man-131127.pdf
0
