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Dear Sir Fred,Dair said:
Miliband can't go anti-austerity because he and his party are locked into the Quid Pro Quo of directorships when MPs retire and placement into positions with well paid city jobs. He's tied into the UK National Ponzi Scheme as hard as Cameron. He does what the moneymen tell him regardless of it's impact on voters.Danny565 said:
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.Artist said:Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Dribble,slurp,creep,fawn,toady.
Yours Alex
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Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So in conculsion:
The SNP will keep it's 45% in scotland.
Miliband did better than expected and enough for a tie, that's a victory of sorts.
Cameron worse than expected but still enough for a tie, that's a defeat of sorts.
Farage worse than expected but still enough for a tie, that's a victory of sorts.
But what matters is the impact on the voting intention and we won't know till next week again.
Goodnight.
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There were a lot of people in that debate competing for the tax-and-spend voters. That can't be good for Labour.Scott_P said:@suttonnick: Friday's Telegraph front page:
Miliband flops as outsiders shine
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #leadersdebate http://t.co/m6TWin8n8B0 -
So 1.5 percent points of ukip in one direction and 4 percent points of conservatives in the other direction? That would be fairly devastating.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Lab Maj testing new highs on betfair - last trade 34.0. SNP effect, probably...0
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Debate masking tonight's big news - the Tories are motoring as the campaigning kicks in....0
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Philip_Thompson said:
Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Refresh the page seems to sort it out for me.
EDIT: but not always. Seems to come and go.0 -
On the other hand if he emerges as St Sebastian shot full of arrows he might get the sympathy (or posthumous) voteFrancisUrquhart said:
Plus, Ed still got the joys of having to do another debate, where everybody will throw rocks at him....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Tory price should come in next day or so.,Tissue_Price said:Lab Maj testing new highs on betfair - last trade 34.0. SNP effect, probably...
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I've said for weeks that the soft Kipper vote, the 19th hole Colonel Blimps if you like, are slowly returning to the Tories, but the WWC have abandoned Labour and they are never going back.Casino_Royale said:nigel4england said:
It would be at Labour's expense, not the ToriesCasino_Royale said:Speedy said:
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.Speedy said:
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.
Why do you say that?nigel4england said:
It would be at Labour's expense, not the ToriesCasino_Royale said:Speedy said:
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.Speedy said:
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.0 -
Depends on what 'more likely' means. Could be 1% to 2%.Alistair said:
So 1.5 percent points of ukip in one direction and 4 percent points of conservatives in the other direction? That would be fairly devastating.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@DPJHodges: Tories break "impossible to break" 36% ceiling.0
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Thank you. I'd tried refreshing and it hadn't but a full refresh (Ctrl+F5) has worked. Thank you.MarkHopkins said:Philip_Thompson said:
Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Refresh the page seems to sort it out for me.
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A quick scan of my facebook news feed, and there are a total of 5 comments about the debates: 4 disparaging Ed Miliband, and one praising the Greens. Interestingly, the latter comment comes from someone whom I know voted blue last time - but she's trained as a teacher since. What do they do to them in teacher training college? Anyway, interestingly, Ed Miliband appears to have liberated people to be critical of the left: In the social circles I move in (middle class Manchester, late 30s/early 40s now) for the last 20 years or so it only seems to have been acceptable to make political comments if you were being critical of the right. That seems to be gradually changing.
Of course, the main conclusion from my snapshot should be that most people totally ignored the debates.0 -
Next debate: Mili 20,Cameron 0,
Clegg 00 -
Gove talking up Sturgeon on QT.0
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Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.JWisemann said:
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A 2% lead, exactly the same as labour yesterday. Eicipm, as I believe the kids say.Ishmael_X said:
Precisely and exactly right. The End.TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit: and the debate is only the second most important politics story of the day.
37%.
The End.
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@stuartmillar159: Ouch - @Freedland's verdict on #leadersdebate http://t.co/BEbiEODxqH http://t.co/je3MgDHJsF0
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Gove - WOT A TOOL0
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Blue Dawn.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Tories break "impossible to break" 36% ceiling.
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Really with all these polls we need to see the pre-debate VI before getting too carried away.0
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Crofty part of the Sturge.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 57 mins57 minutes ago
I don't agree with @NicolaSturgeon on many issues but have respect for her passion. She did the @theSNP proud in the debate tonight.0 -
Tasmina says SNP got 1200 members during the debate.
So thats 105k.0 -
I'm not sure there's much evidence to say that Labour would suffer the penalty, but the Tories gain the benefit.nigel4england said:
I've said for weeks that the soft Kipper vote, the 19th hole Colonel Blimps if you like, are slowly returning to the Tories, but the WWC have abandoned Labour and they are never going back.Casino_Royale said:nigel4england said:
It would be at Labour's expense, not the ToriesCasino_Royale said:Speedy said:
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.Speedy said:
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.
Why do you say that?nigel4england said:
It would be at Labour's expense, not the ToriesCasino_Royale said:Speedy said:
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.Speedy said:
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.
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Burnham destroying the bacon sandwich eating, geek Ed Miliband through a voice that's cracking.0
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Tory peer talks up SNP. OMGTheuniondivvie said:Crofty part of the Sturge.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 57 mins57 minutes ago
I don't agree with @NicolaSturgeon on many issues but have respect for her passion. She did the @theSNP proud in the debate tonight.
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No its more likely to be 40% after the next opposition debate with attacks on Ed from the left and Nigel from the right. Seems as if Lynton Crosby has checkmated labourIOS said:Scott
When was the last time the Tories actually won 37% of the vote.
23 years ago!
Not going to happen this time. When are your thoughts coming by the way? You won't get her back from just copying and pasteing.0 -
@britainelects: #LeadersDebate snap poll (Survation):
Cameron - 25%
Miliband - 25%
Farage - 24%
Sturgeon - 15%
Clegg - 6%
Bennett - 3%
Wood - 2%0 -
He does if labour get 35%...MaxPB said:
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.JWisemann said:
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:
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This election is beginning to feel like 92. I am beginning to come to the view that the Tories will poll close to 40%. It has been an excellent start to the campaign and Cameron will be chuffed with how tonight went. He was the only one presenting a realistic approach to the deficit with everyone else arguing for more borrowing and spending. Not everyone in the uk lives in a fantasy money tree land. During the campaign there will be excellent stats on unemployment and growth. I can only see the Tories adding votes.0
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Nah, Nicola would have been on 128% otherwise.SMukesh said:Where did YouGov conduct their poll?in Dundee?
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Yup as with last time ICM got the VI weightings all wrong, if they did the same this time then reweighting them properly to the last ICM VI gives it to Dave.Tissue_Price said:Really with all these polls we need to see the pre-debate VI before getting too carried away.
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So how many polls show Cameron beating Miliband now?0
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Agreed. Personally I think she's barking ( politically - I'm sure she's perfectly nice individually) but it would be uncharitable not to recognise she came over well for her point of view. As oddly did Clegg IMHO. SLAB are stuffed mind. Is there a market in all Scottish Tory and Labour MP's and a panda fitting in a taxi together?Danny565 said:
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.Artist said:Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Overall a draw though.0 -
Survation Mil/Cam 25, Farage 240
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Not, if the Tories win 37%.JWisemann said:
A 2% lead, exactly the same as labour yesterday. Eicipm, as I believe the kids say.Ishmael_X said:
Precisely and exactly right. The End.TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit: and the debate is only the second most important politics story of the day.
37%.
The End.
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Not necessarily if the SNP and UKIP get what they're polling. SNP to kill Labour in Scotland and UKIP to make the Tory vote far more efficient could eliminate much of the "bias" in the system (except of course biased constituency sizes).JWisemann said:
He does if labour get 35%...MaxPB said:
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.JWisemann said:
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:
37% is not just better than 36% but if its at a more efficient rate then that could be very good news for the Tories.0 -
@carrieapples: #LeadersDebate snap poll averages: Cameron - 22.0% Miliband - 21.5% Farage - 21.0% Sturgeon - 20.0% Clegg - 8.5% Bennett - 4.0% Wood - 2.5%0
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The phoney war... dropping leaflets on Broxtowe... is over.MarqueeMark said:Debate masking tonight's big news - the Tories are motoring as the campaigning kicks in....
Can the tories move Boris their human cannonball to the strategic high ground of 37 quickly enough to pepper the assembled enemy reserves gathered on 38. Is there a gap in the wire and minefields of 39 through which the armour can punch through to the unspoilt green fields of 40!
Or will it all turn out like the end of 'Brazil'?0 -
Hitch is good on QT0
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@faisalislam: Survation poll: solidifying picture: http://t.co/MTfssXQK4P0
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Agree. Lot of froth right now. Most significant poll is tories @ 37% with YG.Tissue_Price said:Really with all these polls we need to see the pre-debate VI before getting too carried away.
No idea how debates will affect things post-Easter but then I switched off for most of it.0 -
For those in Wales "wishing they could vote SNP" Nicola is playing hard to tell them how they can vote SNP.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/5837457474992537610 -
Not really. FPTP works better for the Tories the higher up the thirties they get.JWisemann said:
He does if labour get 35%...MaxPB said:
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.JWisemann said:
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Con led by 2 with YouGov yesterday as well.JWisemann said:
A 2% lead, exactly the same as labour yesterday. Eicipm, as I believe the kids say.Ishmael_X said:
Precisely and exactly right. The End.TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit: and the debate is only the second most important politics story of the day.
37%.
The End.
Two days in a row YouGov has Con +2.
Yesterday 36/34. Today 37/35.0 -
£350! Not bad. All I need now is Edinburgh South And the Tories to get between 300-325 seats and I'll be able to afford some Osborne and Little wallpaper0
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54% of people diagnosed with HIV are foreign born.
Metropolitan liberals fall over themselves with faux outrage.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401662/2014_PHE_HIV_annual_report_draft_Final_07-01-2015.pdf0 -
Sun and Telegraph both really batting as hard as they possibly can for Cameron.0
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ICM forced choice between Cam/Mili-50/50
This is bad for Cam.Normally way ahead.
Right wingers hysterics is ridiculous indicating real anxiety.
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Every point higher for Con helps them even if the lead is unchanged - because it means more gains from LDs (and fewer losses to UKIP).0
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I don't think that Cameron did present a realistic approach, or even any approach, it was quite vague what he said. The big difference comparing Cameron to the other leaders is that Cameron was the only person really acknowledging the financial problems that the country still faces.currystar said:It has been an excellent start to the campaign and Cameron will be chuffed with how tonight went. He was the only one presenting a realistic approach to the deficit with everyone else arguing for more borrowing and spending.
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Telegraph, the Sun and Mail are all batting for the Tories.
Will be a shock to the system when they are out of power.0 -
Gove skewering Burnham and Alexander.
Yasmin talking rubbish as usual.0 -
The claims on QT that Gove is talking up the SNP sounds really desperate from Danny and Andy. Whether it's true or not is neither here nor there. They failed to deal with them and are now trying to blame the Tories for it.0
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Was Cammo's "Vote for the same Team" a hint to Tories in LD/Lab marginals?0
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so 3 polls say a tie or Ed slightly ahead, 1 says something else seems rather odd to be paying out on that basis.......0
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Poor will vote Cons out. I am laying cons in size0
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They know that the Tories have them where they want them. I can see the panic.Plato said:The claims on QT that Gove is talking up the SNP sounds really desperate from Danny and Andy. Whether it's true or not is neither here nor there. They failed to deal with them and are now trying to blame the Tories for it.
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@montie: Verdict of @TheTimes: We learnt tonight how @NicolaSturgeon would drag a minority Miliband government to the left http://t.co/1mGAhBmARD0
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Part-ELBOW for the week so far inc. Panelbase VI poll (but not YG - tables tomorrow!) puts Tories 0.6% ahead0
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And what happens if (if) Labour are crushed into the mud by the tracked juggernaut of 33? Is Ed a warhorse or a carthorsePhilip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily if the SNP and UKIP get what they're polling. SNP to kill Labour in Scotland and UKIP to make the Tory vote far more efficient could eliminate much of the "bias" in the system (except of course biased constituency sizes).JWisemann said:
He does if labour get 35%...MaxPB said:
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.JWisemann said:
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.TheScreamingEagles said:
37% is not just better than 36% but if its at a more efficient rate then that could be very good news for the Tories.0 -
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The Sun taking a leap thereTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Exc final YouGov / Times poll result of the night: Amongst those who are not yet "certain" to vote.score /10
Cameron 6.1
Miliband 5.90 -
That's a four way MoE tie, surely? Is it right to say no one won with a convincing lead?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
BBC highlights are very heavy on Sturgeon. Not surprising as its BBC National and trying to be impartial instea of Labour run BBC Scotland.0
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Not good news for Cameron, if true.SMukesh said:ICM forced choice between Cam/Mili-50/50
This is bad for Cam.Normally way ahead.
Right wingers hysterics is ridiculous indicating real anxiety.0 -
Hitch smash Gove0
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What was Sturgeon's point of view? Was it more than 'look at me I can come over well'? Is that what voting is aboutwelshowl said:
Agreed. Personally I think she's barking ( politically - I'm sure she's perfectly nice individually) but it would be uncharitable not to recognise she came over well for her point of view. As oddly did Clegg IMHO. SLAB are stuffed mind. Is there a market in all Scottish Tory and Labour MP's and a panda fitting in a taxi together?Danny565 said:
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.Artist said:Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Overall a draw though.0 -
I started (but did not finish) a PGCE course at Oxford in 1997. On the first day everyone on the course was taken into a lecture theatre and 'Thak God the Tories lost the election' was pretty much the first thing the course coordinator said to us.Cookie said:Interestingly, the latter comment comes from someone whom I know voted blue last time - but she's trained as a teacher since. What do they do to them in teacher training college?
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Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on THE ECONOMY?
David Cameron 33
Ed Miliband 22
The economy is the number one issue. Dave wins pretty well on that with YouGov.
Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on HEALTH?
Ed Miliband 25
David Cameron 20
And not too far behind on the NHS.
Wins on best PM with ICM 40-28.
Sturgeon rips lumps out of SLAB.
No more direct Dave/Ed debates. Ed heading into a room with the anti-establishment parties.
The Tories will be happy tonight.0 -
@YouGov: Who was most impressive on each question from the leaders' debate? http://t.co/0txnBvMzg7 http://t.co/383LFNplkD0
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I think the marginal loser from tonight is Miliband. Drawing or coming top in a couple of polls, whilst being behind in the rest, just isn't good enough. It was his one chance to change perceptions on the UK national stage, but he just didn't shine enough. And he can finally kiss goodbye to Scotland now.
Cameron was lucky to hold his own against Farage. The best he could have hoped for. That says a lot about Cameron's political skills, but he's lucky that he looks and sounds the part on TV whilst looking relatively even-headed. It could have been so much worse for him.
However, the snapshot judgements tonight won't be as important as how the polls move over the next week, after Easter. The public can have a knack of forming their own narrative. We'll see..
Right, enough of this nonsense. A silly event that I wasted good money betting on. Goodnight.0 -
Looks like the results are a mixed bag in terms of who "won" and who "lost" which is exactly what Cameron was hoping for...
No "gasm" this time presumably?0 -
YouGov voting poll - CON 37%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
When was the last time the Tories scored 37% with YG? - seems an awfully long time ago.0 -
So Cameron leads the poll average, massively ahead on 'best Prime Minister', massively ahead on the economy, while Ed lost even more votes to the SNP
I look forward to tomorrow's "Dave can't Win" thread...0 -
End of 2013, IIRC.SimonStClare said:YouGov voting poll - CON 37%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
When was the last time the Tories scored 37% with YG? - seems an awfully long time age.
Yep, 14th October 2013.0 -
No they want BBC Scotland devolved, so they can strip out the Labour Party placepeople and make it an impartial broadcaster.RobD said:
So the SNP were only proposing to take control of BBC Scotland's political output?Dair said:BBC highlights are very heavy on Sturgeon. Not surprising as its BBC National and trying to be impartial instea of Labour run BBC Scotland.
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