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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who won?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who won?

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    TookieTBookieTookieTBookie Posts: 10
    Sturgeon by a mile
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Sturgeon.

    But Cameron has an easy message to sell - steady as she goes....
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    TookieTBookieTookieTBookie Posts: 10
    My wife kept asking 'why is Caroline Lucas not there' and she knows little about politics
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    As said on last thread, Cameron DID look like a PM. Miliband was just another one amongst the others and will suffer in Wales and Scotland as a result increasing chance of Tories being largest party.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Sturgeon. Class act.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Sturgeon gets 28% on the Yougov poll. Leading Farage by 8%
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Who won and who will shift more votes will prove to have different answers. Farage proved himself the marmie politician, the man for whom the NHS is about healthcare tourists, housing is about immigrants, living standards about immigration depressing wages, etc.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,352
    Farage - Sturgeon - Miliband - in that order.

    Plaid leader was the surprise - not very polished but had some good moments.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Agree on Sturgeon's accent too. Gravitas.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Sturgeon "won".

    But the biggest winners were Farage and Clegg.
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    TookieTBookieTookieTBookie Posts: 10
    Woo hoo first
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,032
    Lab 270 seats
    SNP 55 seats
    Baroness Sturgeon to Lords as PM
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/583738129502314496
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    You gov has tories on 37pct tonight
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Suprised Sturgeon polled so high. An excellent result for Nige and a poor result for the metropolitan elite.
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    TookieTBookieTookieTBookie Posts: 10
    Interesting Clegg ended up so poorly rated, I thought he'd have a best of the rest after the minor parties
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Who won: The SNP, but they were going to win almost all seats in scotland anyway.
    In non-scotland land: Farage.
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    TookieTBookie said:

    Sturgeon by a mile

    Yes, the kiddies love it when teacher says its time to hand out the sweeties

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    ICM
    Milliband wins.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Who won doesn't really matter, as very few people will have watched it. What will really matter is how the news outlets edit the sound bites that is what most people will see.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Eastwinger said:

    TookieTBookie said:

    Sturgeon by a mile

    Yes, the kiddies love it when teacher says its time to hand out the sweeties


    Bennett was there to make Sturgeon look like the milk snatcher by comparison.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/583738671901323264
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    Farage will be very happy with 20%,
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Good YG for Conservatives and on the debate Cam is ahead of Miliband. Job done.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    22.06, and I've received an email from Labour about the debate. The problem is that it contains nothing specific about the debate, and is obviously pre-written.

    Pathetic.

    (And I'll say the same for the other parties if they do it).
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Speedy said:

    ICM
    Milliband wins.

    Quite a big difference in the placings and percentages too.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    BBC - SNP have biggest smiles on their faces.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    I agree with Nicola!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    MP_SE said:

    Suprised Sturgeon polled so high. An excellent result for Nige and a poor result for the metropolitan elite.

    If you take the SNP out of this (only 10% of the population are in Scotland) then the winner was Farage (50% more than UKIP's vote share), with a second place for Clegg (twice the LibDem's vote share).
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,628
    Sturgeon absolutely won. Of the PM candidates I think Dave will have won comfortably.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Debate pollsters all over the shop.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ICM

    Milliband 25
    Cameron 24
    Farage 19
    Sturgeon 17
    Clegg 9
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    You gov has tories on 37pct tonight

    Where's that from?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/583738991406645249
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Agreed.

    Sturgeon did well and I wouldn't want to be a Labour MP.

    I thought Clegg was polished but bland apart from thumping EdM once. He can't do the I'm A Nice Guy thing again - so Ms Greenies did it instead.

    Nigel is just too one-trick for me = I found his endless face pulling and laughing inappropriate for a leaders' debate.
    bunnco said:

    As said on last thread, Cameron DID look like a PM. Miliband was just another one amongst the others and will suffer in Wales and Scotland as a result increasing chance of Tories being largest party.

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,913
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    Sturgeon's accent her greatest asset.

    Why do you say that? Just intrigued ...

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Pollsters lose the debate.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Suprised Sturgeon polled so high. An excellent result for Nige and a poor result for the metropolitan elite.

    If you take the SNP out of this (only 10% of the population are in Scotland) then the winner was Farage (50% more than UKIP's vote share), with a second place for Clegg (twice the LibDem's vote share).
    A pleasant suprise that Nicola won it as I thought people would have voted according to which party they would vote for at the GE.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardley 3m3 minutes ago
    ComRes snap poll result:

    21% Cam
    21% Mili
    9% Clegg
    21% Farage
    5% Bennett
    20% Sturgeon
    2% Wood
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So it's a Sturgasm this time.

    That will make Cameron happy.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015
    ComRes three-way tie

    Cam/Mil/Farage on 21%
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    You gov has tories on 37pct tonight

    anybody said "broken sleazy Ed on the slide", yet?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeL said:

    BBC - SNP have biggest smiles on their faces.

    labour in Scotland should be worried,more now.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,899
    Did Nicola win? I put £50 at 7/1.

    The milky bars are on me!!
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    RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    did Ed sum up well or badly?

    His worm looks like it needs some V!agra.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,913
    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    Suprised Sturgeon polled so high. An excellent result for Nige and a poor result for the metropolitan elite.

    If you take the SNP out of this (only 10% of the population are in Scotland) then the winner was Farage (50% more than UKIP's vote share), with a second place for Clegg (twice the LibDem's vote share).
    But if she has teed off potential Labour and LD voters in England, ad deters them from voting Labour or LD, then that helps too. You need to remember we're all in the union together.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    With a 4 day Easter break there is nothing here big enough to create follow through.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/583738991406645249

    Gold standard.

    Ok in seriousness this highlights the risk of relying on polls too much, lots of variation
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,628
    RepublicanTory said:

    did Ed sum up well or badly?

    His worm looks like it needs some V!agra.

    He looked like a smug arse. His face was awful.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    3 polls so far:
    ICM Milliband by 1
    ComRes: 3 way tie M/F/C.
    Yougov: Sturgeon by 8.

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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarkHopkins said:


    So it's a Sturgasm this time.

    That will make Cameron happy.

    Will it? The impact will be much greater south of the border where there's no SNP candidates to vote and Labour are the next best thing
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Roger said:

    Did Nicola win? I put £50 at 7/1.

    The milky bars are on me!!

    Congrats. Very nice.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    BBC worm (MORI) - per MORI spokesman: Miliband didn't get as good a reaction as Cameron.

    After the initial headline this BBC1 10 pm report is pretty solid for Cameron.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,899
    Comm Res results completely different. Ladbrokes going with YouGov I believe
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    ITV are only reporting the ComRes poll, I thought YouGov had the official verdict.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Any boost for the SNP does most damage to Labour and LDs - I'd be surprised if it affected tory voters up there.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/583739879814758401
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Fenster said:

    Agree on Sturgeon's accent too. Gravitas.

    Well established that people in the UK prefer Scottish accents over any other.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,032
    If this set of polls reflects the state of polling for the 7th of May, God help us all.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,628
    BBC's worm looked good for Farage on the HIV stuff.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Poor old Clegg what a shame
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Speedy said:

    3 polls so far:
    ICM Milliband by 1
    ComRes: 3 way tie M/F/C.
    Yougov: Sturgeon by 8.

    lol.

    Surprised Clegg didn't get anywhere close - I thought he was impressive personally.

    I need to check my bias. It ain't helpful for betting purposes....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    "Winners grin, Losers spin"

    Osborne looks like the Cheshire Cat, Baldwin is apparently frenetic
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/583739939050881024
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Speedy said:

    3 polls so far:
    ICM Milliband by 1
    ComRes: 3 way tie M/F/C.
    Yougov: Sturgeon by 8.

    Cameron beating miliband on YouGov.

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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Cameron won by splitting the left wing vote. Labour will have significant resources tied up in Scotland and Wales. Academic / do-gooder types can vote liberal or green. Working class can vote for Ukip. Only Farage would have attracted any of the Tory right.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Artist said:

    ITV are only reporting the ComRes poll, I thought YouGov had the official verdict.

    Betfair using YouGov.

    ITV can do what they want.

    What are the precise ITV ComRes numbers?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    EPG said:

    Lab 270 seats
    SNP 55 seats
    Baroness Sturgeon to Lords as PM

    Constitutionally that would work. But it would mean Nicola being ejected from the SNP - accepting a Lordship = expulsion.
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    RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    JackW said:

    Debate pollsters all over the shop.

    so no clear winner then.

    interestingly Dave's worm finished very high Ed's very low-any clear reason why??
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited April 2015
    Cameron got what he wished:

    - Miliband swamped among the other five, almost forgotten about at times.

    - His main opponent's main oppenents in Scotland doing well....

    - No one stand-out that might cause a surge anywhere.

    I'm calling it for Cam.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Sturgeon doing well obviously good news for Cameron.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Will be interesting to see if Farage's relatively sound performance leads to UKIP peeling off some of those votes they've been leaking. And if they can keep them
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2015
    Last weeks winner was Paxman, this week, Crosby....

    I bet Ed is looking for to the opposition debate, while Dave and Nick sit at home and play Candy Crush.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Con Most seats 1.50.

    Pre debate was 1.51.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    I thought that was cracking political theatre (whatever one's politics).

    Cameron must be very pleased with the way it has all played out.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,913
    Dair said:

    Fenster said:

    Agree on Sturgeon's accent too. Gravitas.

    Well established that people in the UK prefer Scottish accents over any other.
    Ah. Curious though, one wonders if Weegie and Doric rate the same as Edinbugger - and Inverness, Zetland ...

    Which one do you make hers? I've a tin ear for such things.

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I would like to apologise to any one I put off of betting on Sturgeon with my bold pronouncements that she had no chance.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    Roger said:

    Did Nicola win? I put £50 at 7/1.

    The milky bars are on me!!

    Roger said:

    Did Nicola win? I put £50 at 7/1.

    The milky bars are on me!!

    Well done.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Wasn't Ed meant to lose these debates. INSTEAD HE IS WINNING THEM!
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/583739939050881024

    Lots of former BNP votes for UKIP to hoover up.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    RodCrosby said:

    ComRes three-way tie

    Cam/Mil/Farage on 21%

    Argh. Why wasn't Betfair settling on that market? I'd have been quids in!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Still we are all winners because we all backed the ties right?
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    So everyone can pick their preferred result. Unless you're a Lib Dem
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: KILLER POLL

    ComRes asked who's "most capable of leading the country" - judging by debate - Cameron 40%, Miliband 28%, Farage 10%, Clegg 4%
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    There really is something for everyone in these polls...

    ... apart from Nick Clegg.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeL said:

    Sturgeon doing well obviously good news for Cameron.

    Instead of Labour winning 4 seats in scotland now they will win what?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dougie Alexander looks like a man who knows he's a gonner...
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Something fishy about the YouGov Sturgeon numbers.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Alistair said:

    Still we are all winners because we all backed the ties right?

    Yup :)
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    BBC not reporting any debate poll yet.

    Programme wrap-up still to come.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    poor old Scottp can never ever offer his own thoughts, No wonder his wife walked out.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: KILLER POLL

    ComRes asked who's "most capable of leading the country" - judging by debate - Cameron 40%, Miliband 28%, Farage 10%, Clegg 4%

    And the cherry picking begins
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/583739939050881024

    Hmmm.
    The Tories would not be happy.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Something fishy about the YouGov Sturgeon numbers.

    I agree - seems odd.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It really reminded me of the huge GOP primary debate last time around.
    Ishmael_X said:

    I thought that was cracking political theatre (whatever one's politics).

    Cameron must be very pleased with the way it has all played out.

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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    Mili wins.becoming very familiar face to the people of this country.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Sturgeon may appear to have won, but she appears to equate growth with incresed welfare spending, and higher taxes. She is a fiscal illiterate, and suffers from economic incontinence. Scotland's economy would not thrive with her in charge.

    Miliband will lose seats in Wales and Scotland, but as for The Greens, they have picked a charmless charisma free dud.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Carnyx said:

    Dair said:

    Fenster said:

    Agree on Sturgeon's accent too. Gravitas.

    Well established that people in the UK prefer Scottish accents over any other.
    Ah. Curious though, one wonders if Weegie and Doric rate the same as Edinbugger - and Inverness, Zetland ...

    Which one do you make hers? I've a tin ear for such things.

    She's from Ayrshire and sounds it but there's not much between West Central accents.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    So a clear winner then? Miliband, Cameron, Sturgeon and Farage
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    The pollsters being over the place sort of vindicates Cameron's strategy for these debates: put in so many leaders, that no conclusive narrative can be formed any which way.

    But I do find it astonishing how many of our political leaders seem to struggle with basic debating skills. Sturgeon is one of the few who bothered to learn her trade.
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