Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.
Miliband can't go anti-austerity because he and his party are locked into the Quid Pro Quo of directorships when MPs retire and placement into positions with well paid city jobs. He's tied into the UK National Ponzi Scheme as hard as Cameron. He does what the moneymen tell him regardless of it's impact on voters.
Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.
Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.
It would be at Labour's expense, not the Tories
Why do you say that?
I've said for weeks that the soft Kipper vote, the 19th hole Colonel Blimps if you like, are slowly returning to the Tories, but the WWC have abandoned Labour and they are never going back.
Possibly the wrong time to report a technical issue but I'm only seeing grey lines here, nothing else. Can see others responding but the quotes again are just grey lines, nothing there.
Refresh the page seems to sort it out for me.
Thank you. I'd tried refreshing and it hadn't but a full refresh (Ctrl+F5) has worked. Thank you.
A quick scan of my facebook news feed, and there are a total of 5 comments about the debates: 4 disparaging Ed Miliband, and one praising the Greens. Interestingly, the latter comment comes from someone whom I know voted blue last time - but she's trained as a teacher since. What do they do to them in teacher training college? Anyway, interestingly, Ed Miliband appears to have liberated people to be critical of the left: In the social circles I move in (middle class Manchester, late 30s/early 40s now) for the last 20 years or so it only seems to have been acceptable to make political comments if you were being critical of the right. That seems to be gradually changing. Of course, the main conclusion from my snapshot should be that most people totally ignored the debates.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 57 mins57 minutes ago I don't agree with @NicolaSturgeon on many issues but have respect for her passion. She did the @theSNP proud in the debate tonight.
It looks to me (on any poll) that Miliband and Cameron scored level, so that shouldn't affect the overall narrative.
The risk for the Conservatives, now, is that UKIP upticks a few points of the back of this debate at their expense. And stays there.
It would be at Labour's expense, not the Tories
Why do you say that?
I've said for weeks that the soft Kipper vote, the 19th hole Colonel Blimps if you like, are slowly returning to the Tories, but the WWC have abandoned Labour and they are never going back.
I'm not sure there's much evidence to say that Labour would suffer the penalty, but the Tories gain the benefit.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 57 mins57 minutes ago I don't agree with @NicolaSturgeon on many issues but have respect for her passion. She did the @theSNP proud in the debate tonight.
When was the last time the Tories actually won 37% of the vote.
23 years ago!
Not going to happen this time. When are your thoughts coming by the way? You won't get her back from just copying and pasteing.
No its more likely to be 40% after the next opposition debate with attacks on Ed from the left and Nigel from the right. Seems as if Lynton Crosby has checkmated labour
This election is beginning to feel like 92. I am beginning to come to the view that the Tories will poll close to 40%. It has been an excellent start to the campaign and Cameron will be chuffed with how tonight went. He was the only one presenting a realistic approach to the deficit with everyone else arguing for more borrowing and spending. Not everyone in the uk lives in a fantasy money tree land. During the campaign there will be excellent stats on unemployment and growth. I can only see the Tories adding votes.
Really with all these polls we need to see the pre-debate VI before getting too carried away.
Yup as with last time ICM got the VI weightings all wrong, if they did the same this time then reweighting them properly to the last ICM VI gives it to Dave.
Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.
Agreed. Personally I think she's barking ( politically - I'm sure she's perfectly nice individually) but it would be uncharitable not to recognise she came over well for her point of view. As oddly did Clegg IMHO. SLAB are stuffed mind. Is there a market in all Scottish Tory and Labour MP's and a panda fitting in a taxi together?
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.
He does if labour get 35%...
Not necessarily if the SNP and UKIP get what they're polling. SNP to kill Labour in Scotland and UKIP to make the Tory vote far more efficient could eliminate much of the "bias" in the system (except of course biased constituency sizes).
37% is not just better than 36% but if its at a more efficient rate then that could be very good news for the Tories.
Debate masking tonight's big news - the Tories are motoring as the campaigning kicks in....
The phoney war... dropping leaflets on Broxtowe... is over. Can the tories move Boris their human cannonball to the strategic high ground of 37 quickly enough to pepper the assembled enemy reserves gathered on 38. Is there a gap in the wire and minefields of 39 through which the armour can punch through to the unspoilt green fields of 40! Or will it all turn out like the end of 'Brazil'?
£350! Not bad. All I need now is Edinburgh South And the Tories to get between 300-325 seats and I'll be able to afford some Osborne and Little wallpaper
It has been an excellent start to the campaign and Cameron will be chuffed with how tonight went. He was the only one presenting a realistic approach to the deficit with everyone else arguing for more borrowing and spending.
I don't think that Cameron did present a realistic approach, or even any approach, it was quite vague what he said. The big difference comparing Cameron to the other leaders is that Cameron was the only person really acknowledging the financial problems that the country still faces.
£350! Not bad. All I need now is Edinburgh South And the Tories to get between 300-325 seats and I'll be able to afford some Osborne and Little wallpaper
The claims on QT that Gove is talking up the SNP sounds really desperate from Danny and Andy. Whether it's true or not is neither here nor there. They failed to deal with them and are now trying to blame the Tories for it.
£350! Not bad. All I need now is Edinburgh South And the Tories to get between 300-325 seats and I'll be able to afford some Osborne and Little wallpaper
Are you giving the Stompie Moeketsi Room a makeover?
The claims on QT that Gove is talking up the SNP sounds really desperate from Danny and Andy. Whether it's true or not is neither here nor there. They failed to deal with them and are now trying to blame the Tories for it.
They know that the Tories have them where they want them. I can see the panic.
Except it's cameron that needs the game changer. If the polls stay neck a neck there's not a chance he stays.
Cameron doesn't need a game changer at 37%.
He does if labour get 35%...
Not necessarily if the SNP and UKIP get what they're polling. SNP to kill Labour in Scotland and UKIP to make the Tory vote far more efficient could eliminate much of the "bias" in the system (except of course biased constituency sizes).
37% is not just better than 36% but if its at a more efficient rate then that could be very good news for the Tories.
And what happens if (if) Labour are crushed into the mud by the tracked juggernaut of 33? Is Ed a warhorse or a carthorse
£350! Not bad. All I need now is Edinburgh South And the Tories to get between 300-325 seats and I'll be able to afford some Osborne and Little wallpaper
Are you giving the Stompie Moeketsi Room a makeover?
Wow there's a name I haven't heard in a long, long time.
Apart from Sturgeon winning, the finishing orders were pretty predictable.
Sturgeon winning was predictable since there's such a huge untapped anti-austerity market out there. If only Ed had had the sense to seize it.
Agreed. Personally I think she's barking ( politically - I'm sure she's perfectly nice individually) but it would be uncharitable not to recognise she came over well for her point of view. As oddly did Clegg IMHO. SLAB are stuffed mind. Is there a market in all Scottish Tory and Labour MP's and a panda fitting in a taxi together?
Overall a draw though.
What was Sturgeon's point of view? Was it more than 'look at me I can come over well'? Is that what voting is about
Interestingly, the latter comment comes from someone whom I know voted blue last time - but she's trained as a teacher since. What do they do to them in teacher training college?
I started (but did not finish) a PGCE course at Oxford in 1997. On the first day everyone on the course was taken into a lecture theatre and 'Thak God the Tories lost the election' was pretty much the first thing the course coordinator said to us.
I think the marginal loser from tonight is Miliband. Drawing or coming top in a couple of polls, whilst being behind in the rest, just isn't good enough. It was his one chance to change perceptions on the UK national stage, but he just didn't shine enough. And he can finally kiss goodbye to Scotland now.
Cameron was lucky to hold his own against Farage. The best he could have hoped for. That says a lot about Cameron's political skills, but he's lucky that he looks and sounds the part on TV whilst looking relatively even-headed. It could have been so much worse for him.
However, the snapshot judgements tonight won't be as important as how the polls move over the next week, after Easter. The public can have a knack of forming their own narrative. We'll see..
Right, enough of this nonsense. A silly event that I wasted good money betting on. Goodnight.
Comments
Dribble,slurp,creep,fawn,toady.
Yours Alex
The SNP will keep it's 45% in scotland.
Miliband did better than expected and enough for a tie, that's a victory of sorts.
Cameron worse than expected but still enough for a tie, that's a defeat of sorts.
Farage worse than expected but still enough for a tie, that's a victory of sorts.
But what matters is the impact on the voting intention and we won't know till next week again.
Goodnight.
Refresh the page seems to sort it out for me.
EDIT: but not always. Seems to come and go.
Of course, the main conclusion from my snapshot should be that most people totally ignored the debates.
Clegg 0
Number of (metaphorical) pies to face?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 57 mins57 minutes ago
I don't agree with @NicolaSturgeon on many issues but have respect for her passion. She did the @theSNP proud in the debate tonight.
So thats 105k.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/583748619850932224
Cameron - 25%
Miliband - 25%
Farage - 24%
Sturgeon - 15%
Clegg - 6%
Bennett - 3%
Wood - 2%
Overall a draw though.
37% is not just better than 36% but if its at a more efficient rate then that could be very good news for the Tories.
Can the tories move Boris their human cannonball to the strategic high ground of 37 quickly enough to pepper the assembled enemy reserves gathered on 38. Is there a gap in the wire and minefields of 39 through which the armour can punch through to the unspoilt green fields of 40!
Or will it all turn out like the end of 'Brazil'?
No idea how debates will affect things post-Easter but then I switched off for most of it.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/583745747499253761
Two days in a row YouGov has Con +2.
Yesterday 36/34. Today 37/35.
Metropolitan liberals fall over themselves with faux outrage.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401662/2014_PHE_HIV_annual_report_draft_Final_07-01-2015.pdf
He will be destroyed.
This is bad for Cam.Normally way ahead.
Right wingers hysterics is ridiculous indicating real anxiety.
Will be a shock to the system when they are out of power.
Yasmin talking rubbish as usual.
Titter
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fmgajr8fze/Debate_for_website.pdf
But: This is bad for Cam. Normally way ahead.
A dead giveaway.
Cameron 6.1
Miliband 5.9
David Cameron 33
Ed Miliband 22
The economy is the number one issue. Dave wins pretty well on that with YouGov.
Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on HEALTH?
Ed Miliband 25
David Cameron 20
And not too far behind on the NHS.
Wins on best PM with ICM 40-28.
Sturgeon rips lumps out of SLAB.
No more direct Dave/Ed debates. Ed heading into a room with the anti-establishment parties.
The Tories will be happy tonight.
Cameron was lucky to hold his own against Farage. The best he could have hoped for. That says a lot about Cameron's political skills, but he's lucky that he looks and sounds the part on TV whilst looking relatively even-headed. It could have been so much worse for him.
However, the snapshot judgements tonight won't be as important as how the polls move over the next week, after Easter. The public can have a knack of forming their own narrative. We'll see..
Right, enough of this nonsense. A silly event that I wasted good money betting on. Goodnight.
No "gasm" this time presumably?
When was the last time the Tories scored 37% with YG? - seems an awfully long time ago.
I look forward to tomorrow's "Dave can't Win" thread...
Yep, 14th October 2013.