Thought Ms Greenie was much better than usual - but she's got nothing to lose and appeared much better prepared. Her accent is really peculiar. I always assume she's a pundit not a UK party leader.
And she uses Ms Lucas as a human shield - that she's not an MP just makes it odder.
Clegg won, but it is not about winning. Cameron was a wallflower, but PM nevertheless. Miliband was coherent but goofy and geeky. Sturgeon was brilliant, but too earnest. Wood was lyrical, but unconvincing, Bennet was, well, foreign and a tad too nervous. And Farage was prehistoric.
So, the winner was...... Cameron. As to Clegg- well what might have been!!
the trouble is that an SNP surge does nothing to help a con government into power, it only makes a labour government more likely to be genuinely left wing
It makes a coalition of the losers less likely. Last time if Labour had a few more/Tories less then a Labour+Lib Dem coalition could have been plausible. A Labour+SNP+Lib Dem coalition is frankly not plausible.
The 30 or so LD MPs could be critical once again, if the SNP take Scotland's Labour MPs then realistically (so long as Clegg holds his seats) then LDs would likely end up with the Tories again like this time.
The SNP will take 11 Liberal seats.
Hence why I said 30 or so.
Honest question: Can you plausibly see a Labour+SNP+Lib Dem coalition Dair?
In the scenario that there are (say) 300 Con, 260 Lab, 40 SNP and 30 LD then who would take power?
The only plausible government there I can see is Con with LD. Had it been close to 300 Con, 300 Lab then LD could choose, so the rise of the SNP does (indirectly) help the Cons in that sort of scenario.
Indeed. Very obvious that LD order of preference will be:
1) Lab + LD 2) Con + LD 3) Lab + LD but reliant on SNP
Absolutely blindingly obvious - no way will they prefer to be reliant on SNP (who will have just smashed 9 or 10 of their MPs) than a steady as she goes continuation of the current coalition.
So SNP gaining Lab seats absolutely does help Cameron.
Is the ComRes poll which is on Guido's website a genuine VI poll? It has the Greens on 9, which would be +4 on their last poll.
So the answer is no winner in tonight's debat. David and Ed did ok, nick was good, nigel blew hot and cold but was okay, Natalie was up on expectations, Leanne was OK and Nicola did as expected. All have something positive to take away
Tactics in arranging them, Tories have a slight lead.
Seems mostly sound. Now just to see if allowing an all-opposition debate pays off or not.
Hmm, I normally scoff at such comments, but the headline on the mainpage does only list the NHS and Immigration, and the subheading's reference to the economy is only through the prism of spending cuts. That's a little questionable BBC.
Clegg excellent attacks on Miliband seem exponentially more popular on PB comments than in the public as a whole, who'd have thought it?
I really feel sorry for Clegg, truly. He tries so hard, and he can and did make some good points at time, but it just will not matter. One on one with the man I am sure people could forgive everything, he could sway them round, but not enough will stop to listen no matter if he deserves it or not, making the effort pretty wasted (whether one think his effort did well or not).
Sturgeon 'winning' was not a surprise. She's always formidible and for most of the night she reined in that smug, mocking assurance that she adopts in many interviews that annoys me (but not Scots voters, clearly), coming across as reasonable and positive. Alas.
I was surprised on several questions it was Ed trying to be specific on policy points in his openings given the general penchant for vagueness, I think it was a good move but not sure it worked.
Interesting he was the least "disliked" in the polls.
I must say I thought Bennet deserved a boost from tonight. Apart from a rather clunkily delivered opening, I thought she was actually pretty good, and benefited from no-one really targeting her.
It's interesting how we all see things differently. Personally I thought she was worse than useless. Caroline Lucas is a far more effective operator.
I usually think that, every time I've seen Bennett before I've thought she was awful (and maybe that colours how I saw her tonight, as no-one tore her to pieces with ease), but she was able to be clearly different from the others and she didn't ramble or obfuscate as much, on the face of it, which was fairly refreshing. .
What was funny about Bennet, was how completely and utterly wrong she was. She gave her little example of a worker in a library or childrens centre. Without austerity that person would be in work paying tax, contributing to her community. But now she is on JSA...
This utter fantasy of course, compared to the reality of what has happened, for every job lost in the public sector has resulted in five jobs in the private sector.
Thought Ms Greenie was much better than usual - but she's got nothing to lose and appeared much better prepared. Her accent is really peculiar. I always assume she's a pundit not a UK party leader.
And she uses Ms Lucas as a human shield - that she's not an MP just makes it odder.
Clegg won, but it is not about winning. Cameron was a wallflower, but PM nevertheless. Miliband was coherent but goofy and geeky. Sturgeon was brilliant, but too earnest. Wood was lyrical, but unconvincing, Bennet was, well, foreign and a tad too nervous. And Farage was prehistoric.
So, the winner was...... Cameron. As to Clegg- well what might have been!!
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
Hmm, I normally scoff at such comments, but the headline on the mainpage does only list the NHS and Immigration, and the subheading's reference to the economy is only through the prism of spending cuts. That's a little questionable BBC.
They are still just reporting the son of a Councillor of some unnamed party is a Turkish detainee...as a headline it is a total joke...
If that had been a Tory or UKIP, it would have been UKIP/Tory Councillor son arrested joining ISIS....
Clegg excellent attacks on Miliband seem exponentially more popular on PB comments than in the public as a whole, who'd have thought it?
I really feel sorry for Clegg, truly. He tries so hard, and he can and did make some good points at time, but it just will not matter. One on one with the man I am sure people could forgive everything, he could sway them round, but not enough will stop to listen no matter if he deserves it or not, making the effort pretty wasted (whether one think his effort did well or not).
Sturgeon 'winning' was not a surprise. She's always formidible and for most of the night she reined in that smug, mocking assurance that she adopts in many interviews that annoys me (but not Scots voters, clearly), coming across as reasonable and positive. Alas.
I was surprised on several questions it was Ed trying to be specific on policy points in his openings given the general penchant for vagueness, I think it was a good move but not sure it worked.
Interesting he was the least "disliked" in the polls.
Can we totally discount a shy Lib Dem syndrome?
A year ago I would have said no we cannot discount the idea. Now I would say we can. That they have actually dipped in the polls since then, showing no sign of recovery at all, to the point that even the safest of seats looks like it cannot be guaranteed, becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Even people who might think about voting for them may well think there is no point, even in a seat with a large LD majority.
The shy LD supporters I think could be out there, but shy voters? Personally I don't think so any more.
I must say I thought Bennet deserved a boost from tonight. Apart from a rather clunkily delivered opening, I thought she was actually pretty good, and benefited from no-one really targeting her.
It's interesting how we all see things differently. Personally I thought she was worse than useless. Caroline Lucas is a far more effective operator.
I usually think that, every time I've seen Bennett before I've thought she was awful (and maybe that colours how I saw her tonight, as no-one tore her to pieces with ease), but she was able to be clearly different from the others and she didn't ramble or obfuscate as much, on the face of it, which was fairly refreshing. .
What was funny about Bennet, was how completely and utterly wrong she was..
One reason she seems to trip up so much in the media of course. But she got a free pass tonight, and some of what she said I could see being appealing to many, but apparently not.
Thought Ms Greenie was much better than usual - but she's got nothing to lose and appeared much better prepared. Her accent is really peculiar. I always assume she's a pundit not a UK party leader.
And she uses Ms Lucas as a human shield - that she's not an MP just makes it odder.
Clegg won, but it is not about winning. Cameron was a wallflower, but PM nevertheless. Miliband was coherent but goofy and geeky. Sturgeon was brilliant, but too earnest. Wood was lyrical, but unconvincing, Bennet was, well, foreign and a tad too nervous. And Farage was prehistoric.
So, the winner was...... Cameron. As to Clegg- well what might have been!!
Something similar to Clegg is true of Bennett/Wood. Everyone who attacked Miliband got all the plaudits here, but the public did not think that the primary consideration.
Thought Ms Greenie was much better than usual - but she's got nothing to lose and appeared much better prepared. Her accent is really peculiar. I always assume she's a pundit not a UK party leader.
And she uses Ms Lucas as a human shield - that she's not an MP just makes it odder.
Clegg won, but it is not about winning. Cameron was a wallflower, but PM nevertheless. Miliband was coherent but goofy and geeky. Sturgeon was brilliant, but too earnest. Wood was lyrical, but unconvincing, Bennet was, well, foreign and a tad too nervous. And Farage was prehistoric.
So, the winner was...... Cameron. As to Clegg- well what might have been!!
Story changing now...first it was I didn't know, I thought he was on placement in Birmingham, now it is...
He said that he had seen his son’s photograph and when asked about one picture of his son laughing, he replied: ‘Well, they went on holiday so they shouldn’t be crying on holiday should they?’
He added: ‘I don’t believe my son was on his way to join Islamic State. I was shocked, worried and extremely upset to hear that my son has been arrested.
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
How do you know?
When was the last time you got tested?
The reason I ask, @MP_SE is that pretty much no-one thinks they have HIV, until they find out they do.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
How do you know?
When was the last time you got tested?
The reason I ask, @MP_SE is that pretty much no-one thinks they have HIV, until they find out they do.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
Those who are here currently can make use of the NHS. Tourists have to purchase health insurance and migrants have a check up prior to arriving/within xx days of arriving.
Sat watching the debate with a group of Scottish mainly Labour friends. General view DC uninspired but PM like. Very managerial and came across as competent and unruffled.
Ed deeply uninspired.
Clegg good in parts.
Sturgeon got a very easy ride with no one gunning for her at all but came across well. Ed not willing to be distracted. Murphy probably pulling his few remaining hairs out.
Generally the women were thought to have added a fair bit to the debate and rather emphasised what a narrow strata our Westminster pols come from.
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
How do you know?
When was the last time you got tested?
The reason I ask, @MP_SE is that pretty much no-one thinks they have HIV, until they find out they do.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
Those who are here currently can make use of the NHS. Tourists have to purchase health insurance and migrants have a check up prior to arriving/within xx days of arriving.
My eighteen month old niece, having recently undergone heart surgery required no insurance for her visit to the uk.
Cameron's decision to stick to his guns and push for an all inclusive Leaders debate after last weeks one to one Paxman and audience debates right at the start of the GE campaign has been totally vindicated. Will the Westminster Lobby or the broadcast media swallow their pride and admit they were out manoeuvred and outclassed by Cameron on the Leadership negotiations?
Who now remembers the arrogant bluster and threats of emptying chairing Cameron in an attempt to embarrass and bullying him into doing their bidding? I watched an interview with Cameron on the issue of the debates months ago, he reiterated his commitment to take part in them, but made it clear that he thought they had sucked the whole life out of the last GE campaign, and he was right. Its ironic that neither the Lobby or broadcast media bothered to listen or take on board what he was quite clearly laying out his own red lines on the Leadership debates. If Cameron can successful lead and remain the leader of the current Conservative party for a decade, he has surely proved he has the cojones to stand up the media when it counts.
This time around, we have had two whole days of Westminster Lobby/Broadcast media frenzy based around an empty studio before the debates rather than wall to wall obsessive coverage of the last and then the next one right up to almost polling day. And it also means that those who plan to vote by post will have had a real chance to watch the debates before they cast their votes early. I don't think that Cameron and his team will be too concerned about this Daily Mail headline in their later editions... Twitter James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 5m5 minutes ago Our later edition take on #leadersdebate
The debate was seven politicians promising more spending using cash from the magic money tree.
Without an Andrew Neil or similar to question them they can all get away with unrealistic proposals.
Sadly there are plenty of voters taken in who vote for such politicians. That's why countries end up burdening future generations with so much debt - £1.5 trillion in the case of the UK.
DavidEvershed To be fair to Farage he was proposing to slash overseas aid and EU spending and emphasising there was still some way to go to restore a surplus
The debate was seven politicians promising more spending using cash from the magic money tree.
thing is, money more or less is magic, isn't it? It only has the value we collectively ascribe to it. It can be created by fiat (not the motor company).
The whole setup is based on the collective belief that debt is both healthy and unsustainable...
With Labour + Conservative enjoying a combined 72% share of the vote last night with YouGov, while the LibDems are stuck on 7%, things are starting to look pretty dire for the Yellow team. Like others I had believed that they would comfortably move into double figures as the GE approached with a reasonable chance of overtaking UKIP in terms of VI, thereby having a good chance of saving around half of their existing seats. With less than five weeks to go, even for them to win 10% of the UK vote is beginning to look like quite an ambitious target and you have to wonder just how bad it could become for them. In MartinDaySpeak, how many London cabs might we be necessary to convey their MPs to the HoC in the next Parliament? Four ..... three ....... two even? Might it even be worth yours truly giving up his GE night festivities in Earls Court to enjoy that potentially delicious "Portillo" moment to watch Uncle Vince being toppled in Twickenham, just 5 miles up the road from me? It's a close call.
With Labour + Conservative enjoying a combined 72% share of the vote last night with YouGov, while the LibDems are stuck on 7%, things are starting to look pretty dire for the Yellow team. Like others I had believed that they would comfortably move into double figures as the GE approached with a reasonable chance of overtaking UKIP in terms of VI, thereby having a good chance of saving around half of their existing seats. With less than five weeks to go, even for them to win 10% of the UK vote is beginning to look like quite an ambitious target and you have to wonder just how bad it could become for them. In MartinDaySpeak, how many London cabs might we be necessary to convey their MPs to the HoC in the next Parliament? Four ..... three ....... two even? Might it even be worth yours truly giving up his GE night festivities in Earls Court to enjoy that potentially delicious "Portillo" moment to watch Uncle Vince being toppled in Twickenham, just 5 miles up the road from me? It's a close call.
I think we need to accept that the Yellow team are done. If they do get the 21 seats I hold them for in the prediction they will be having an insanely good night.
Reality is they're done, 12 to 15 seats might be a solid result for them now.
DavidEvershed To be fair to Farage he was proposing to slash overseas aid and EU spending and emphasising there was still some way to go to restore a surplus
and join macao, palau, lichstenstein and brunei in that special club?
Labour are desperate, they don't have a leader that can achieve anything and Nicola will win the election in Scotland. Their only choice is to tell the country they will let Alex Salmond be PM and support the SNP in government.
Their only choice is to tell the country they will let Alex Salmond be PM and support the SNP in government.
Just to make sure I understand.
Your case is that a party with ±270-290 MPs should support for PM one of the MPs (not even currently their leader) of another party which at best case will have one fifth the number of MPs?
Their only choice is to tell the country they will let Alex Salmond be PM and support the SNP in government.
Just to make sure I understand.
Your case is that a party with ±270-290 MPs should support for PM one of the MPs (not even currently their leader) of another party which at best case will have one fifth the number of MPs?
Well apart from being a joke, I'm saying Labour should campaign in England for the SNP to choose the PM.
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
At least leave the Blues with one seat in Scotland, it's only fair
But its a useful measure of the different parties supporters involvement in the Twittersphere - tho some of them mistake it for the real world.....
How is twitter wrong? The clearest opinion poll and the gold standard said Nicola won. Sorry that your Scottish Tory needs aren't met. You already lost.
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
At least leave the Blues with one seat in Scotland, it's only fair
That's up to them. Personally, I'm getting more inclined to 59/59 SNP.
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
At least leave the Blues with one seat in Scotland, it's only fair
That's up to them. Personally, I'm getting more inclined to 59/59 SNP.
But its a useful measure of the different parties supporters involvement in the Twittersphere - tho some of them mistake it for the real world.....
How is twitter wrong? The clearest opinion poll and the gold standard said Nicola won. Sorry that your Scottish Tory needs aren't met. You already lost.
All of a sudden YouGov is the gold standard?
The 'poll of polls' had a four way tie between the three men & Sturgeon - tho from what I've watched so far, that flatters the men - Cameron comes across as stolid, Clegg as in denial about how he's voted for five years, Miliband as a geek and Nigel looks sweaty - Sturgeon does speak 'human' - but (especially given she got less time than Cameron/Miliband) to take one poll and claim that its an unequivocal triumph is confirmation bias of the highest order.
Twitter is an echo chamber - it fooled the Nats into believing they were winning Indyref.....
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
How do you know?
When was the last time you got tested?
The reason I ask, @MP_SE is that pretty much no-one thinks they have HIV, until they find out they do.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
Those who are here currently can make use of the NHS. Tourists have to purchase health insurance and migrants have a check up prior to arriving/within xx days of arriving.
What is the similarity between all these well known totalitarian states ?
Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Jordan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, plus about fifty others ?
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
At least leave the Blues with one seat in Scotland, it's only fair
That's up to them. Personally, I'm getting more inclined to 59/59 SNP.
Typical that the bets are settled on the poll that's out of line with the rest. Hey ho. At least my David Cameron losses will be partly set off from having sold Leanne Wood on Sporting Index.
I see that Nigel Farage got his shock moment and that Nick Clegg came out swinging.
Nicola Sturgeon will be happiest this morning. All of the rest have things to fret about until we see what impact it has in the polls.
Nicola Sturgeon will be happiest this morning. All of the rest have things to fret about until we see what impact it has in the polls.
Yes - although positive write ups in the Mail may give her pause for thought.....
The body langauge is fascinating - Ed had been given his coaching - but wasn't told what to do when he wasn't speaking - his gurning & smirking is almost as bad as Farage's....
Both Con (81) and Lab (82) retention improving in today's YouGov - but govt approval declining slightly to -12 (-2), so 'biased panel' may not apply.....and virtually no movement in party images - so it looks like its 'voters returning to the fold'....
No but if I did and wanted to emigrate to another country I would more than happy to be told 1. I am not welcome or 2. I need to pay for my own treatment/take out insurance.
How do you know?
When was the last time you got tested?
The reason I ask, @MP_SE is that pretty much no-one thinks they have HIV, until they find out they do.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
I, like many other people in this country, get tested three times a year. I must stress, however, that you should not use a blood donation as a way of getting tested.
But if there was a victor in this televised row, it was Ms Sturgeon, which was worse news for Mr Miliband. If the Labour leader comes to power, it will likely be courtesy of the SNP’s support. On this showing, the Scottish leader will be an awkward bed-fellow.
Just before I leave for Amsterdam, here's part-ELBOW for week so far updated for last night's YG - a 0.7% Tory lead - surely Tory lead guaranteed by Sunday!!!
Hope to be able to update by Monday at the latest. Happy Easter!
Just before I leave for Amsterdam, here's part-ELBOW for week so far updated for last night's YG - a 0.7% Tory lead - surely Tory lead guaranteed by Sunday!!!
Hope to be able to update by Monday at the latest. Happy Easter!
Just before I leave for Amsterdam, here's part-ELBOW for week so far updated for last night's YG - a 0.7% Tory lead - surely Tory lead guaranteed by Sunday!!!
Hope to be able to update by Monday at the latest. Happy Easter!
Just before I leave for Amsterdam, here's part-ELBOW for week so far updated for last night's YG - a 0.7% Tory lead - surely Tory lead guaranteed by Sunday!!!
Hope to be able to update by Monday at the latest. Happy Easter!
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Given the SNP want the Tories to win they'll need more of Salmond on the telly down south. Sturgeon clearly doesn't frighten English voters and will be less effective in getting UKIPers to switch to the Blues.
YG indicates I'm right in thinking the only real issue now is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.
Just think. Ed has to do that again. Just him and Nicola and her two friends with farage ignored again.
Yes, with no Cameron to attack, I expect he'll benefit from the full focus of their attention, in particular on Labour's record - which they kept digging up at most inopportune moments - even Leanne scored a direct hit on ZHC....
This Labour 'its all about values' (because we can't/won't talk about policies) does not fare well under bombardment on specifics - which frequently highlights Labour hypocrisy
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
Agree with this. It's as though the Lib Dems are pretending that everything is going to be okay.
Weird thing is, the ejected Tory activist was thrown out. But. Surely if you are doing a political discussion programme and someone enters the audience wearing a sheepskin gillet, you are gonna watch them. Closely.
From Faisal Islam : - Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
At least leave the Blues with one seat in Scotland, it's only fair
That's up to them. Personally, I'm getting more inclined to 59/59 SNP.
I think Labour having 0 seats - and less seats than the Tories in Scotland - would be the ultimate humiliation of SLAB....
This mornings thread will be delayed because Mike Smithson will be performing his annual duty around the streets of Bedford as Campaign Director of the Easter Bunny, dressed in a fluffy white rabbit onesie.
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
I’m afraid you may be correct @SO – his public perception does appear to be set in stone.
Weird thing is, the ejected Tory activist was thrown out. But. Surely if you are doing a political discussion programme and someone enters the audience wearing a sheepskin gillet, you are gonna watch them. Closely.
Weird thing is, the ejected Tory activist was thrown out. But. Surely if you are doing a political discussion programme and someone enters the audience wearing a sheepskin gillet, you are gonna watch them. Closely.
The Daily Mail is a little less circumspect than the Guardian: - "Ms Prosser is said to be a 'health and wellbeing' worker who votes Green" - Which must be a first, can't recall the Greens ever being supportive of the Armed forces before..!
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
Weird thing is, the ejected Tory activist was thrown out. But. Surely if you are doing a political discussion programme and someone enters the audience wearing a sheepskin gillet, you are gonna watch them. Closely.
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
I’m afraid you may be correct @SO – his public perception does appear to be set in stone.
It's a shame really. If the Tories govern alone next time people will come to realise how much of a restraining influence the LDs were on them during this last Parliament. They could have done a lot more, but they did plenty. But they are not going to see their stick improve until Clegg goes. He has irrevocably alienated too many voters.
Cameron's approach to the debates entirely vindicated.
Ed Miliband's Twitter feed overnight is a thing of joy; it is full of all the things he was too slow, incompetent or scared to say out loud at the time, e.g.
Weird thing is, the ejected Tory activist was thrown out. But. Surely if you are doing a political discussion programme and someone enters the audience wearing a sheepskin gillet, you are gonna watch them. Closely.
Lol :-) Same thought here. She was dressed like a heckler.
So the wash up begins. With the proviso that we need to see about ukip Cameron's gonna be pretty happy this morning. The papers have laid into Miliband and talk of coalition won't bother the tories. Miliband looked so weird in the final speech which I turned back on for. Whoever told him to smile? He looked a goon.
I watched last night because I had a bet on it but what it told me is that Ed isn't front of house material. He might be a good back room boy but he's not a leader.
On a points system he wasn't the worse-probably no worse than Cameron or Clegg-but he was far and away the least suited to the job he was applying for.
It's easy to think he was over rehearsed-which he was-or that he's naturally A symetrical-which he is-but the problem wasn't either of these things.
It was that he was playing a part and there was no other way for him to do it. He was going through the motions of trying to look like a leader but he couldn't. He was a fish out of water
I notice one or two Labour supporters were angry earlier. I think they realized the same. It's not a good feeling because the Tories look like they'll win by default
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
I’m afraid you may be correct @SO – his public perception does appear to be set in stone.
It's a shame really. If the Tories govern alone next time people will come to realise how much of a restraining influence the LDs were on them during this last Parliament. They could have done a lot more, but they did plenty. But they are not going to see their stick improve until Clegg goes. He has irrevocably alienated too many voters.
I'm not quite sure that's entirely correct.
Clegg scored only second to Sturgeon, 6% to 4% on who performed worst in the debate. If he was completely toxic his score would have been far higher.
I think it's likely that Clegg would have been many voters second or third choice in a STV (god forbid) type score. So overall I think the Clegg situation is more nuanced. In any case Clegg's strategy is to focus their efforts in the 50 or seats where voters will give them a hearing.
I watched last night because I had a bet on it but what it told me is that Ed isn't front of house material. He might be a good back room boy but he's not a leader.
On a points system he wasn't te worse-probably no worse than Cameron or Clegg-but he was far and away the least suited to the job he was applying for.
It's easy to think he was over rehearsed-which he was-or that he's naturally A symetrical which he is but the problem wasn't these things. It was that he was playing a part. There was no other way for him to do it. He was going through the motions of of trying to look the part but he couldn't. He was a fish out of water
I notice one or two Labour supporters were angry earlier. I think they realized the same. It's not a good feeling because the Tories look like they'll win by default
Labour voted for him.
Labour picked him over David.
Ah well, doesn't matter. It's probably for the best, Cameron 2 will introduce EVEL and cause Indyref 2. Then, for England, it;s all over without the subsidy paid by Scotland.
Surely translating straight FPTP "who won" poll results into how parties will do in the election is misleading. Such results will obscure where the electorate feel negatively about an individual because you can't cast an "anti" vote in a poll like this and the anti vote is split across the other seven candidates. More revealing would be a poll that asked whether individuals felt (strongly)positively/(strongly)negatively/neutral about each of the leaders. Were there any?
Given the SNP want the Tories to win they'll need more of Salmond on the telly down south. Sturgeon clearly doesn't frighten English voters and will be less effective in getting UKIPers to switch to the Blues.
YG indicates I'm right in thinking the only real issue now is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.
The sample is the first one I can recall seeing for many a year where the underlying 2015 Tory VI was bigger than the 2010 one.
466 compared to 459. A similar UK wide ratio would give 37.53% .
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
Even more than EdM, there is a settled UK public view of Clegg and nothing he can say or do will alter that.
I’m afraid you may be correct @SO – his public perception does appear to be set in stone.
It's a shame really. If the Tories govern alone next time people will come to realise how much of a restraining influence the LDs were on them during this last Parliament. They could have done a lot more, but they did plenty. But they are not going to see their stick improve until Clegg goes. He has irrevocably alienated too many voters.
Not only that, but the coalition was an extremely useful tool for Cameron to keep his more extreme back benchers at bay. He was able to pretend that there were all sorts of things he might have done, "if the LibDems weren't holding him back". When secretly he probably agreed with the LibDems.
By far the potentially most significant poll of the night may well be the pre-debate YG. If it becomes a trend then it's a game-changer. the debates will be forgotten by Monday and most people didn't watch them anyway.
A thought about Sturgeon/SNP. If the SNP are a major player/hold balance of power post election then it will be interesting to see who calls the shots - the SNP Westminster MPs or the SNP leader at Holyrood. Because it will make passing knife-edge legislation very difficult if reference always has to be made to an individual calling the shots from Scotland. Difficult to hammer out back room deals, establish personal relationships etc in those circumstances.
A thought about Sturgeon/SNP. If the SNP are a major player/hold balance of power post election then it will be interesting to see who calls the shots - the SNP Westminster MPs or the SNP leader at Holyrood. Because it will make passing knife-edge legislation very difficult if reference always has to be made to an individual calling the shots from Scotland. Difficult to hammer out back room deals, establish personal relationships etc in those circumstances.
On the evidence of the past week or two Alex and Nicola have different views on that. One can see a deal being struck in Westminster and then a lot of "wait a minute, I am leading the party" talk emanating from Holyrood
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Can we totally discount a shy Lib Dem syndrome?
This utter fantasy of course, compared to the reality of what has happened, for every job lost in the public sector has resulted in five jobs in the private sector.
When was the last time you got tested?
everybody's won the debates
If that had been a Tory or UKIP, it would have been UKIP/Tory Councillor son arrested joining ISIS....
The shy LD supporters I think could be out there, but shy voters? Personally I don't think so any more. One reason she seems to trip up so much in the media of course. But she got a free pass tonight, and some of what she said I could see being appealing to many, but apparently not.
He said that he had seen his son’s photograph and when asked about one picture of his son laughing, he replied: ‘Well, they went on holiday so they shouldn’t be crying on holiday should they?’
He added: ‘I don’t believe my son was on his way to join Islamic State. I was shocked, worried and extremely upset to hear that my son has been arrested.
Night all.
They're just like you. Normal people going about their life. I'd guess that statistically, there's probably one or two PB lurkers with the virus too whether they know it or not.
Putting in place a bar to getting a HIV test - knowing that if the test came back positive you'd also potentially face being kicked out of the country you call your home is utterly inhumane.
It's not just callous, it's stupid.
We need anyone who has the faintest suspicion that they might have been exposed to HIV to get tested ASAP. That's how we halt the spread of this horrible thing to you, your children and your grandchildren.
Ed deeply uninspired.
Clegg good in parts.
Sturgeon got a very easy ride with no one gunning for her at all but came across well. Ed not willing to be distracted. Murphy probably pulling his few remaining hairs out.
Generally the women were thought to have added a fair bit to the debate and rather emphasised what a narrow strata our Westminster pols come from.
Farage a bit of a joke when not being offensive.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/ed-miliband-could-have-won-the-election-tonight-now-its-camerons-to-lose/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/02/leaders-debate-labour-miliband-conservatives-david-cameron
Who now remembers the arrogant bluster and threats of emptying chairing Cameron in an attempt to embarrass and bullying him into doing their bidding? I watched an interview with Cameron on the issue of the debates months ago, he reiterated his commitment to take part in them, but made it clear that he thought they had sucked the whole life out of the last GE campaign, and he was right. Its ironic that neither the Lobby or broadcast media bothered to listen or take on board what he was quite clearly laying out his own red lines on the Leadership debates. If Cameron can successful lead and remain the leader of the current Conservative party for a decade, he has surely proved he has the cojones to stand up the media when it counts.
This time around, we have had two whole days of Westminster Lobby/Broadcast media frenzy based around an empty studio before the debates rather than wall to wall obsessive coverage of the last and then the next one right up to almost polling day. And it also means that those who plan to vote by post will have had a real chance to watch the debates before they cast their votes early. I don't think that Cameron and his team will be too concerned about this Daily Mail headline in their later editions...
Twitter
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 5m5 minutes ago
Our later edition take on #leadersdebate
Very good. Getting a Merkel vibe from Sturgeon in this pic.
Without an Andrew Neil or similar to question them they can all get away with unrealistic proposals.
Sadly there are plenty of voters taken in who vote for such politicians. That's why countries end up burdening future generations with so much debt - £1.5 trillion in the case of the UK.
The whole setup is based on the collective belief that debt is both healthy and unsustainable...
Like others I had believed that they would comfortably move into double figures as the GE approached with a reasonable chance of overtaking UKIP in terms of VI, thereby having a good chance of saving around half of their existing seats.
With less than five weeks to go, even for them to win 10% of the UK vote is beginning to look like quite an ambitious target and you have to wonder just how bad it could become for them.
In MartinDaySpeak, how many London cabs might we be necessary to convey their MPs to the HoC in the next Parliament? Four ..... three ....... two even? Might it even be worth yours truly giving up his GE night festivities in Earls Court to enjoy that potentially delicious "Portillo" moment to watch Uncle Vince being toppled in Twickenham, just 5 miles up the road from me? It's a close call.
Reality is they're done, 12 to 15 seats might be a solid result for them now.
http://news.sky.com/story/1457899/sturgeon-impresses-but-will-she-do-a-deal
And some Labour retiring MPs/PPCs calling it for Sturgeon:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-won-the-leaders-tv-debate-nicola-sturgeon-according-to-these-labour-people-10153695.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-32166785
Might let them win the election.
Your case is that a party with ±270-290 MPs should support for PM one of the MPs (not even currently their leader) of another party which at best case will have one fifth the number of MPs?
Yet in the case of Ms Sturgeon, that is extraordinary in polls across the UK. For months the Conservative Party has been treating Britain to the prospect of the 'horror" and "chaos" of the SNP involved in Government.
Says all we need to know. Roll on April 16th
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11512203/Election-debates-Who-does-Twitter-think-is-winning.html
But its a useful measure of the different parties supporters involvement in the Twittersphere - tho some of them mistake it for the real world.....
The 'poll of polls' had a four way tie between the three men & Sturgeon - tho from what I've watched so far, that flatters the men - Cameron comes across as stolid, Clegg as in denial about how he's voted for five years, Miliband as a geek and Nigel looks sweaty - Sturgeon does speak 'human' - but (especially given she got less time than Cameron/Miliband) to take one poll and claim that its an unequivocal triumph is confirmation bias of the highest order.
Twitter is an echo chamber - it fooled the Nats into believing they were winning Indyref.....
Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Jordan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, plus about fifty others ?
http://www.hivtravel.org/Default.aspx?PageId=143&Mode=list&StateId=2
I see that Nigel Farage got his shock moment and that Nick Clegg came out swinging.
Nicola Sturgeon will be happiest this morning. All of the rest have things to fret about until we see what impact it has in the polls.
The body langauge is fascinating - Ed had been given his coaching - but wasn't told what to do when he wasn't speaking - his gurning & smirking is almost as bad as Farage's....
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eu4qflg9nm/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-020415.pdf
But if there was a victor in this televised row, it was Ms Sturgeon, which was worse news for Mr Miliband. If the Labour leader comes to power, it will likely be courtesy of the SNP’s support. On this showing, the Scottish leader will be an awkward bed-fellow.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21647811-neither-david-cameron-nor-ed-miliband-did-themselves-much-harm-or-good-crowded-field-safety
Hope to be able to update by Monday at the latest. Happy Easter!
Happy Easter!
Safe travels
Having now caught up with some of the video highlights from last night, the only real surprise that comes to mind was Clegg’s assured performance, it was certainly better than I had expected from him and feel he was a little short changed in the poll results. – in stark contrast to Natalie Bennett I might add.
YG indicates I'm right in thinking the only real issue now is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.
This Labour 'its all about values' (because we can't/won't talk about policies) does not fare well under bombardment on specifics - which frequently highlights Labour hypocrisy
"Easter Eggs Winning Here"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/02/tv-leaders-debate-heckler-victoria-prosser
Lib Dem PPCs don't put Clegg
Clegg doesn't put Lib Dems.....
Still, it went in wearing a sheepskin gillet and the security weren't sitting either side. Seems like they asked for an "intervention".
Cameron's approach to the debates entirely vindicated.
Ed Miliband's Twitter feed overnight is a thing of joy; it is full of all the things he was too slow, incompetent or scared to say out loud at the time, e.g.
@RossMcCaff: Good job you weren't in a debate with him for 2 hours when you could have told him directly. http://t.co/gYm1p8kzEU
The hopeless spin from Labour has also cheered up a slightly damp start to the holiday weekend
@labourpress: David Cameron showed last night he has no plan for the future, pretending he doesn't have extreme spending plans
So does he have 'no plan', or does he have 'extreme spending plans'?
Tory canvassers will have a spring in their step, and Wee Dougie will be heading for the job centre.
So the wash up begins. With the proviso that we need to see about ukip Cameron's gonna be pretty happy this morning. The papers have laid into Miliband and talk of coalition won't bother the tories. Miliband looked so weird in the final speech which I turned back on for. Whoever told him to smile? He looked a goon.
tory majority or tory biggest party look odds-on?
On a points system he wasn't the worse-probably no worse than Cameron or Clegg-but he was far and away the least suited to the job he was applying for.
It's easy to think he was over rehearsed-which he was-or that he's naturally A symetrical-which he is-but the problem wasn't either of these things.
It was that he was playing a part and there was no other way for him to do it. He was going through the motions of trying to look like a leader but he couldn't. He was a fish out of water
I notice one or two Labour supporters were angry earlier. I think they realized the same. It's not a good feeling because the Tories look like they'll win by default
Clegg scored only second to Sturgeon, 6% to 4% on who performed worst in the debate. If he was completely toxic his score would have been far higher.
I think it's likely that Clegg would have been many voters second or third choice in a STV (god forbid) type score. So overall I think the Clegg situation is more nuanced. In any case Clegg's strategy is to focus their efforts in the 50 or seats where voters will give them a hearing.
Labour picked him over David.
Ah well, doesn't matter. It's probably for the best, Cameron 2 will introduce EVEL and cause Indyref 2. Then, for England, it;s all over without the subsidy paid by Scotland.
466 compared to 459. A similar UK wide ratio would give 37.53% .