politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals
Comments
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Looking at the 2010 election, there was only three MORI polls during the entire campaign!TheScreamingEagles said:
Probably not for another week or two.GIN1138 said:Any idea when we'll get our first MORI of the election campaign?
2 polls in April and then an "eve of poll poll" on 5th May;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
So your probably right, we may well have a long wait for MORI.
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If it's the same survey being discussed in the comments on the latest posting on scotgoespop, one might do well to share the commentator's scepticism about reading, for intsance, what seem to be 2% in Scotland with Lab and Con on 35% and 34%, and the same SNP vote in the SE of England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
4% SNP is OK for a national poll? Shurely?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is more than a formatting issue.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Formatting issues don't concern me, Admiral! I want that ship, not excuses!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't add TNS to your elbow just yet, they've got a formatting issue I think, and bolloxed the SNP figures.Sunil_Prasannan said:Hell no! I mean yes!
Tories 1.1% ahead in this week's ELBOW so far, inc. last night's YG, but excluding TNS (inc. TNS figures to follow!)
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Indeed and not forgetting that Peter the Punter might reprise his 2010 role with "Cross Dressers For Palmer".Floater said:
Surely tories for Palmer will carry the day?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Although at the time there was some confusion in Broxtowe when angry naturists came out as "Angry Nudists For Tories".
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If the Tories score anything like 40% in England then they will undoubtedly be the largest party. Labour look like they are building up votes in their heartlands like the North, Wales and East London. I think this could be an election where Labour's vote becomes less efficient and the Tory vote becomes more efficient because of UKIP taking votes in Tory shires but not really doing anything in terms of seats.DavidL said:
That is not nearly enough Sean. All this talk of the Labour meltdown in Scotland rather ignores the fact that the SNP will not vote for a Conservative government. So Labour losing 30 seats up here helps the Tories to be the largest party but does not get them 1 step closer to a majority (unless they win Dumfries & Galloway of course).Sean_F said:
A simple average of this week's five polls has the Conservatives leading 34.8% to 33.4%, but there have been plenty of weeks where the Conservatives started well, only to fall back.DavidL said:
Yeah.Cyclefree said:
And yet - despite this - there is still a pretty good chance that Labour will become the next government.DavidL said:Britain's more optimistic about the economy than any time for 13 years: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11505545/Were-more-optimistic-about-economy-than-at-any-time-in-13-years.html
And this was before some fairly stonking stats this morning.
Osborne has played an absolute blinder. Achieving this peak in the economy at the exact end of a FTP must involve a very large slice of luck but also an astonishing level of skill and judgement.
Sigh.
A 4%+ swing in England makes Labour the largest party. The Tories need to at least halve that swing to hang on. It is possible but they have a lot to do. Most election campaigns make relatively little difference. This is why Electionforecast said the swing back was over. This might be the exception. Maybe.
Absolutely nothing is set in stone for this election. But the assumption that a tory lead of 1-2% means they are winning is just wrong. They need much more than that.0 -
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.edmundintokyo said:
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".Casino_Royale said:Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You will probably disagree but the fraudulence of the renegotiation is due to Cameron's heart not truly being in it, and his EU counterparts sensing that, not that there's no prospect of a real satisfactory deal.
But, for the latter, Cameron would have had to go in very hard from day one. And meant it.0 -
@DavidL For all the talk (And betting
) on Scotland, it is almost an irrelevance to who becomes PM.
As you note, Dumfries and Galloway, and I reckon the two other border constituencies are the exception to that.
Nuneaton, Pudsey, Broxtowe, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Croydon Central will decide the next PM - not Glenrothes, interesting though that seat will be.0 -
You'd have to be a racist mug to vote Labour.SeanT said:I've had my tea.
In my Racist Labour Mug.
Yes, it has just arrived.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/582866331982262272/photo/10 -
SeanT said:
I've had my tea.
In my Racist Labour Mug.
Yes, it has just arrived.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/582866331982262272/photo/1
Now you just need to be canvassed by Labour supporters from an ethnic minority and offer them a cup of tea.0 -
There's a personal aspect to this, too. Disengagement wouldn't be credible unless they got rid of Clegg. But getting rid of Clegg would potentially be messy, unless he's prepared to go of his own accord.JohnLilburne said:
Well, they have lost the "none of the above" protest voters and those who thought the Lib Dems were Labour Lite. I guess they are targeting centrists who think they can be a useful and moderating part of a coalition. Still being in government helps make that point. Clegg will be introduced on Thursday to the TV audience as Deputy Prime Minister.RodCrosby said:Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?0 -
Ben Page, Chief Exec of Ipsos-Mori has just told me, their next poll isn't due for a couple of weeks.GIN1138 said:
Looking at the 2010 election, there was only three MORI polls during the entire campaign!TheScreamingEagles said:
Probably not for another week or two.GIN1138 said:Any idea when we'll get our first MORI of the election campaign?
2 polls in April and then an "eve of poll poll" on 5th May;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
So your probably right, we may well have a long wait for MORI.0 -
Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy)
31/03/2015 11:46
That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way0 -
Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"0 -
That's why as I said upthread, an overall majority would be the last thing Cameron would want.edmundintokyo said:
Actually getting lumbered with the promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".Casino_Royale said:Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.0 -
Another poll with no Labour debate bounce, another poll with a bit more air coming out the UKIP balloon......BenM said:New TNS poll Con 33 (-) Lab 32 (-) Lib Dem 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (-1) Green 5 (+1)
Fieldwork 26-30 March
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I think it's more a Salmond than an SNP thing with the Tele.Alistair said:
Suprised the Telegraph SNP figure is so low. Maybe I get a skewed view due to Scott_Pantifrank said:@Tissue_Price I thought that the Mirror were obsessed with the Conservatives. But then I saw ITV's focus on the SNP.
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It might not be the answer you liked but it is the answer.RodCrosby said:
Still no answer.JackW said:
Probably for several reasons, not least would be :RodCrosby said:
That's no answer. It was perfectly possible for the LDs to formally dissolve the Coalition, and leave office yesterday or before.JackW said:
The government and ministers remain in office until the Queen appoints a new PM. Twas ever thus.RodCrosby said:
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the electiontyson said:
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.RodCrosby said:Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?
I don't think from the early exchanges that differentiation in the campaign will be a problem for either the Conservatives or the LibDems.
Why haven't they done so?
1. They agreed the Coalition would run the full course through the election.
2. Last minute chaos in government as a new Cabinet and ministers are put in place.
3. It would correctly appear as a political stunt.
1. They agreed a full Parliament, which ended yesterday.
2. Only if they hadn't signalled it in advance. There was no chaos in 1945, or on previous occasions.
3. On the contrary, it was the proper and usual thing to do, unless we are having a "coupon" election, which we're not!
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Gordon Brown did not "hunker down". He carried his constitutional duty to remain PM whilst there was no alternative. Cam will do the same.tyson said:
I don't think they could pass a budget at 280. But at 280, Labour will be at the 260-265 range and even with the SNP's not quite there. If you remember that Gordon tried to hunker down from a much worse position; Cameron will not shift if he gets to 280- he will dig the moat and stock up on gunpowder and provisions.Artist said:
Who would vote through a Conservative budget if they have 280 seats?tyson said:
That is why I think the 280 figure is critical for Cameron. If he gets 280-late 280's or above he will hunker down at number 10 and dare Labour to oust him- Labour with fewer seats, fewer votes and backed by the SNP.antifrank said:
I think you're right for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. For David Cameron I think the test is simpler - if he stays as Prime Minister, he stays as party leader, but otherwise he's out.tyson said:As an interesting aside, what is the minimum number of seats do you think each leader needs to survive;
Miliband- I would suggest anything under 265 and he will be in big trouble, anything between 265-275 he will be vulnerable, over 280 safe
Cameron- the figure is higher, under 280 and he will be an ex leader, 280-290- he maybe can carry on, and over 290 safe
30 for Clegg is the figure; 25-30 he will be able to cling on maybe, over 30 he will be jubilant.
Nigel Farage needs only one seat - his own. But if he fails to get that, we could see a full-on ruck in UKIP, because it's hard to imagine him going quietly and it's hard to imagine him not being challenged if others get elected and he doesn't.
Anything above 290 and Cameron is safe to run a minority govt.
You cannot help but think that the Scottish referendum has been great for Cameron. He won it and completely dismantled Labour's electoral advantage in one clean hit.0 -
2010 will surely never be beaten in Scotland as the most boring election ever with not a single seat changing hands and most, if anything, becoming less marginal.Pulpstar said:@DavidL For all the talk (And betting
) on Scotland, it is almost an irrelevance to who becomes PM.
As you note, Dumfries and Galloway, and I reckon the two other border constituencies are the exception to that.
Nuneaton, Pudsey, Broxtowe, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Croydon Central will decide the next PM - not Glenrothes, interesting though that seat will be.
I don't think that will be the case this time. That might not even my bravest prediction of the campaign.0 -
Three Tory leads and two ties so far this week!MarqueeMark said:
Another poll with no Labour debate bounce, another poll with a bit more air coming out the UKIP balloon......BenM said:New TNS poll Con 33 (-) Lab 32 (-) Lib Dem 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (-1) Green 5 (+1)
Fieldwork 26-30 March0 -
Give them one thing...they processed your order quickly. Most faster than they will process asylum cases and those still here illegally.MonikerDiCanio said:
You'd have to be a racist mug to vote Labour.SeanT said:I've had my tea.
In my Racist Labour Mug.
Yes, it has just arrived.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/582866331982262272/photo/10 -
Utter cringe at the name dropping... make it stop!0
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Rubbish. Balfour 1905? Bonar Law 1922? Attlee 1945?David_Evershed said:
The government has a public duty to remain in office until the election and beyond until a new government is formed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Lib Dems wanted to show that coalitions are stable, secure and don't force the electorate to suffer the twelve labours of Hercules.RodCrosby said:
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the electiontyson said:
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.RodCrosby said:Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?
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Lazy b*ggers!TheScreamingEagles said:
Ben Page, Chief Exec of Ipsos-Mori has just told me, their next poll isn't due for a couple of weeks.GIN1138 said:
Looking at the 2010 election, there was only three MORI polls during the entire campaign!TheScreamingEagles said:
Probably not for another week or two.GIN1138 said:Any idea when we'll get our first MORI of the election campaign?
2 polls in April and then an "eve of poll poll" on 5th May;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
So your probably right, we may well have a long wait for MORI.
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Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromisedTGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"0 -
@paulwaugh: .@edballsmp not remotely abashed about Labour's Immigration mug. After the elxn 'I can do a toast in that mug' #SkyNewsSeanT said:The mug is actually quite astonishing in reality. Who would honestly order one of these, and think it a "good thing"? Who would proudly serve tea in it?
The mug is designed so that when right handed people hold it, the logo points outwards. Why not invite your Slovak neighbours to share a cuppa, then hold your racist Labour mug in your hand, giving them the message?
It takes a kind of genius to make something so crass.
@DPJHodges: Jesus. Ed Balls on immigration mug. "I'm going to buy one and put it in my constituency office".
@DPJHodges: Balls. "After the election I'm going to raise a toast with it".
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You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe.Casino_Royale said:
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.edmundintokyo said:
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".Casino_Royale said:Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen.
b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more.
c) ???0 -
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.0 -
I 100% disagree with this. It shows that the party leaders have got brains. And, perhaps, that some of our political interviewers have forgotten that the exercise of an interview is to give us an informed understanding of the interviewee's views rather than those of the interviewer.isam said:Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy)
31/03/2015 11:46
That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way0 -
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.0
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They don't like polling during the holidays.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lazy b*ggers!TheScreamingEagles said:
Ben Page, Chief Exec of Ipsos-Mori has just told me, their next poll isn't due for a couple of weeks.GIN1138 said:
Looking at the 2010 election, there was only three MORI polls during the entire campaign!TheScreamingEagles said:
Probably not for another week or two.GIN1138 said:Any idea when we'll get our first MORI of the election campaign?
2 polls in April and then an "eve of poll poll" on 5th May;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
So your probably right, we may well have a long wait for MORI.0 -
Smithson knows...
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless)
31/03/2015 12:46
Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx0 -
Mind you, I did see a recent tweet that the London branch of the SNP has more members than the LDs have in the the whole of Scotland...Carnyx said:
If it's the same survey being discussed in the comments on the latest posting on scotgoespop, one might do well to share the commentator's scepticism about reading, for intsance, what seem to be 2% in Scotland with Lab and Con on 35% and 34%, and the same SNP vote in the SE of England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
4% SNP is OK for a national poll? Shurely?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is more than a formatting issue.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Formatting issues don't concern me, Admiral! I want that ship, not excuses!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't add TNS to your elbow just yet, they've got a formatting issue I think, and bolloxed the SNP figures.Sunil_Prasannan said:Hell no! I mean yes!
Tories 1.1% ahead in this week's ELBOW so far, inc. last night's YG, but excluding TNS (inc. TNS figures to follow!)0 -
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.SeanT said:@TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.0 -
@ComResPolls: We have new polling out this eve looking at the state of the race in Labour's forty Scottish seats. Exclusive on @ITVNews at 6.30pm. #GE20150
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I agree. If Cameron is ahead he will meet parliament. The question for Labour would be would they try to take office having "lost" the election. Would they walk into the trap of being dependent on the SNP? The trouble is with the scenario you describe is that a minority Conservative government would in practice find it difficult to carry much legislation. The issue of grand coalition would then inevitably arise, I think.tyson said:
I don't think they could pass a budget at 280. But at 280, Labour will be at the 260-265 range and even with the SNP's not quite there. If you remember that Gordon tried to hunker down from a much worse position; Cameron will not shift if he gets to 280- he will dig the moat and stock up on gunpowder and provisions.Artist said:
Who would vote through a Conservative budget if they have 280 seats?tyson said:
That is why I think the 280 figure is critical for Cameron. If he gets 280-late 280's or above he will hunker down at number 10 and dare Labour to oust him- Labour with fewer seats, fewer votes and backed by the SNP.antifrank said:
I think you're right for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. For David Cameron I think the test is simpler - if he stays as Prime Minister, he stays as party leader, but otherwise he's out.tyson said:As an interesting aside, what is the minimum number of seats do you think each leader needs to survive;
Miliband- I would suggest anything under 265 and he will be in big trouble, anything between 265-275 he will be vulnerable, over 280 safe
Cameron- the figure is higher, under 280 and he will be an ex leader, 280-290- he maybe can carry on, and over 290 safe
30 for Clegg is the figure; 25-30 he will be able to cling on maybe, over 30 he will be jubilant.
Nigel Farage needs only one seat - his own. But if he fails to get that, we could see a full-on ruck in UKIP, because it's hard to imagine him going quietly and it's hard to imagine him not being challenged if others get elected and he doesn't.
Anything above 290 and Cameron is safe to run a minority govt.
You cannot help but think that the Scottish referendum has been great for Cameron. He won it and completely dismantled Labour's electoral advantage in one clean hit.
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Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.isam said:
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromisedTGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"0 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 3m3 minutes agoSeanT said:I've had my tea.
In my Racist Labour Mug.
Yes, it has just arrived.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/582866331982262272/photo/1
@thomasknox "I've never voted #Labour before, but we Mugs have to stick together!"
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It's going to be (a) - I think the party will start to dissolve in 2017/2018, but that's just me.edmundintokyo said:
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe.Casino_Royale said:
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.edmundintokyo said:
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".Casino_Royale said:Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen.
b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more.
c) ???0 -
You wish!edmundintokyo said:It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried.
We will vote to stay in, it won't even be close, and UKIP will dwindle to a handful of angry old men who smell of wee.
0 -
I wonder if the Tories will use Gary Barlow this time around :-)SimonStClare said:
Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.isam said:
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromisedTGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
They probably lucked out that he was exposed as having an extremely tax efficient setup already...imagine if they had plastered him all over their PPB's etc and then it was revealed.0 -
I would agree if they didn't try to lie or at least tell half truths constantly... That's why they get a hard time from the likes of Neilantifrank said:
I 100% disagree with this. It shows that the party leaders have got brains. And, perhaps, that some of our political interviewers have forgotten that the exercise of an interview is to give us an informed understanding of the interviewee's views rather than those of the interviewer.isam said:Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy)
31/03/2015 11:46
That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way
Unfortunately this art of spin and deception is admired by politicians and most political anoraks.. The smug grin of satisfaction when they say something that everyone knows is misleading but can't be seized upon on a technicality is one if the reasons few people trust them0 -
It also says a lot about the Labour membership and activist base that they think any controls on immigration are racist and bigoted. But that's the party they've built up since the 80s.SeanT said:The mug is actually quite astonishing in reality. Who would honestly order one of these, and think it a "good thing"? Who would proudly serve tea in it?
The mug is designed so that when right handed people hold it, the logo points outwards. Why not invite your Slovak neighbours to share a cuppa, then hold your racist Labour mug in your hand, giving them the message?
It takes a kind of genius to make something so crass.0 -
I'll Never Forget Gary Barlow's contribution last time.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if the Tories will use Gary Barlow this time around :-)SimonStClare said:
Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.isam said:
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromisedTGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
They probably lucked out that he was exposed as having an extremely tax efficient setup already...imagine if they had plastered him all over their PPB's etc and then it was revealed.0 -
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.0 -
*buys popcorn*Scott_P said:
@ComResPolls: We have new polling out this eve looking at the state of the race in Labour's forty Scottish seats. Exclusive on @ITVNews at 6.30pm. #GE2015
0 -
@FraserNelson: Revealed: How Labour’s election new broadcast star supported Arthur Scargill’s Socialist party http://t.co/Kca3x5iz2u http://t.co/Vvz1iB1tNuSeanT said:As I said yesterday, I reckon celebs, artists and writers should never give overt support to any specific political party, especially in something as visible as a PEB. It alienates and offends.
0 -
Does anyone know if anyone's checking the roads before Thursday's event? We need to ensure that Farage will get there on time without 'immigrants' choking the roads and stopping him getting there on time.
Or perhaps he'll play safe and stay nearby beforehand.0 -
The SNP has categorically, unambiguously and without equivocation said it will not put a Tory into No 10.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Alex Salmond has boasted in the past how he has worked with the conservatives and the SNP must realise that David Cameron will give them far more than labour but obviously they could not give even a hint at this time that they could get the 'best' deal from the conservatives as it would play into labours handsSeanT said:@TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
Full stop.
Were Cameron to survive with the confidence or support of the SNP, then the damage wrought on the LDs by Clegg's tuition fees boo-boo would pale into insignificance.
The Nats are stupid. But not that stupid...0 -
Labour blaming the SNP for their woes is going to wash about as well as UKIP being blamed by the Conservative party for some of theirs though.Bob__Sykes said:
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.SeanT said:@TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.0 -
TNS have pulled the data tables from their website, I think.0
-
I don't think they mind - they either have a nasty Dick Dastardly like Cameron doing horrible nasty things like fixing the economy and having a better jobs situation in England than Scotland (all Westminster's fault of course) or you have the weak, useless, economy stuffing dweeb Ed dragging Scotland back.Bob__Sykes said:
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.SeanT said:@TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
0 -
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.edmundintokyo said:
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe.Casino_Royale said:
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.edmundintokyo said:
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".Casino_Royale said:Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen.
b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more.
c) ???0 -
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....isam said:Smithson knows...
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless)
31/03/2015 12:46
Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
0 -
I see the UKIP candidate who was opposing Tim Farron has resigned and rejoined the Scottish Tory Party citing among other things racism within UKIP.0
-
I guess when you are accused of hating the UK and its history, believing in the magic money tree, being a vested interest or a client voter, a scrounger, a supporter of unlimited immigration and so on, you develop a zeal to want to defeat your accusers.MaxPB said:
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
0 -
Why bother even posting that? What do you hope to achieve?Bond_James_Bond said:
You wish!edmundintokyo said:It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried.
We will vote to stay in, it won't even be close, and UKIP will dwindle to a handful of angry old men who smell of wee.0 -
I think that's the whole point of the SNP surge in England. Ensure that the Tories get elected and Scotland is further alienated from Britain. That way they get one step closer to independence.Bob__Sykes said:
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.SeanT said:@TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.0 -
As I understand it the government remains in office unless they personally resign. Cam is still PM. Balfour resigned in 1905 and Edward VII asked Campbell to form a Lib minority government before a GE in 1906.RodCrosby said:
Rubbish. Balfour 1905? Bonar Law 1922? Attlee 1945?David_Evershed said:
The government has a public duty to remain in office until the election and beyond until a new government is formed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Lib Dems wanted to show that coalitions are stable, secure and don't force the electorate to suffer the twelve labours of Hercules.RodCrosby said:
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the electiontyson said:
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.RodCrosby said:Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?0 -
His wife ("partner") managed an even simpler message on Twitter: f*ck the Tories.MaxPB said:
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.0 -
I'll bet with you on Rochester and Strood if you like? I'll take worse odds than Mike tips, Even money £50?MarqueeMark said:
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....isam said:Smithson knows...
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless)
31/03/2015 12:46
Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx0 -
Ooops! In my weakened state, I had added it to Wiki...TheScreamingEagles said:TNS have pulled the data tables from their website, I think.
0 -
You certainly couldn't accuse Ukip candidates and elected politicians of not providing good copy.Easterross said:I see the UKIP candidate who was opposing Tim Farron has resigned and rejoined the Scottish Tory Party citing among other things racism within UKIP.
Huzzah for Ukip.
0 -
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.0 -
Few lines missing there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nabavi,
Our Father
Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy subsamples
And give us this day our daily poll
And forgive us our smears,
As we forgive those who smear against us
And lead us not into the single currency
For thine is the kingdom
Forever and ever
Amen
Back to comfirmation class for you!
0 -
I see Mike is still tipping Montgomeryshire. I'm on at 3.5isam said:
I'll bet with you on Rochester and Strood if you like? I'll take worse odds than Mike tips, Even money £50?MarqueeMark said:
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....isam said:Smithson knows...
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless)
31/03/2015 12:46
Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx0 -
Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.0
-
Absolutely, he just made a load of nonsense up. Its basically shows the lack of depth to the labour campaign. Its just Tories eat babies. Thats it.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.0 -
I don't like the moral crusade of the Labour party because it will never work in a broadly secular nation. To be fair I don't think you have to be a Labour supporter if you're compassionate and decent but I suppose the party can keep using the line that if you want to keep the nasty Tories out of power Labour is the best option. I'm tired of that kind of thinking which is why I won't vote Labour unless they support PR. Since I live in a safe seat I can stick to my high horse knowing it won't make a difference.MaxPB said:
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.0 -
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.Pulpstar said:
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.0 -
@SeanT The mug is every bit as glorious as the righteous indignation it has spawned. Magnificent. I particularly love how stark and bold it is... such a shame you can't buy a matching pair with "British Jobs For British Workers"!!
But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign?0 -
So is this going to be 40 constituency y polls or a 'national' poll restricted to SLab seats.
Either way could be the last chance to wring any value out of Scotland.0 -
That doesn't sound like a very big concession. A referendum on PR for Westminster would be, and probably in the Tories' interests, too, but the question is whether they could pass it.Lennon said:
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.edmundintokyo said:
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe.
a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen.
b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more.
c) ???
Maybe Cameron and Clegg could play the move that Tory back-benchers played on them with boundaries / Lords reform. Link the EU referendum and the PR referendum (or whatever other Tory-base-upsetting concession they picked) together in the same bill. Labour would presumably vote against. Some Tory back-benchers would vote against it, too. Cameron and Clegg say, too bad, we tried, parliament voted it down, we'll just have to carry on governing.0 -
Failure to obtain that last time will be viewed as the LD(Liberal)s greatest strategic error since the 1920s...Lennon said:
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.
0 -
Blimey - I went to LHS.... it wasn't elite then I call tell you!!!!TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"0 -
Indeed. Most notably the lineLuckyguy1983 said:
Few lines missing there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nabavi,
Our Father
Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy subsamples
And give us this day our daily poll
And forgive us our smears,
As we forgive those who smear against us
And lead us not into the single currency
For thine is the kingdom
Forever and ever
Amen
Back to comfirmation class for you!
"But deliver us from Brussels"0 -
It wasn’t always like that, either.Sean_F said:
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.Pulpstar said:
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.0 -
I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.0
-
Ill baby (not badly just an absolute stinker of a cold/eye infection) means my reconnaissance is limited.Pulpstar said:
How's it looking on the ground in Edinburgh (East ?) ?Alistair said:So is this going to be 40 constituency y polls or a 'national' poll restricted to SLab seats.
Either way could be the last chance to wring any value out of Scotland.0 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Nov 24
Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5370446010651975690 -
That's pretty much how I am, though as I live in a nominal marginal I have finally and reluctantly decided I don't have the luxury of a high horse. It would be great if there was a realistic alternative to Labour on the centre left, or a better Labour party. But we are where we are. I don't want a Tory government, so where I live I have to vote Labour.FrankBooth said:
I don't like the moral crusade of the Labour party because it will never work in a broadly secular nation. To be fair I don't think you have to be a Labour supporter if you're compassionate and decent but I suppose the party can keep using the line that if you want to keep the nasty Tories out of power Labour is the best option. I'm tired of that kind of thinking which is why I won't vote Labour unless they support PR. Since I live in a safe seat I can stick to my high horse knowing it won't make a difference.MaxPB said:
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.Casino_Royale said:
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.TGOHF said:Obviously..
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
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http://www.nottinghampost.com/Thoresby-Colliery-close-end-year-500-jobs-lost/story-26238402-detail/story.html
This news should confirm a LAB gain in Sherwood i guess.
A real shame. I did my work experience at that colliery. Well paid highly skilled jobs to be replaced by low skilled low paid employment no doubt.0 -
Could this provide us with the devaluation to help re-balance the economy? Are the British voters smarter than we realise?Patrick said:I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.
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That's a pretty common view amongst the young/under 25s, though. If you don't like a shop, don't go there. If you don't like a town, don't visit. If you don't like a product, don't buy it. If you don't like what people are thinking, don't vote.Pulpstar said:
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
In other words, the default mode when they don't like something is to avoid it or disengage. Voting doesn't work like that, of course, but it's value to them tends be measured in terms of personal comfort in exercising a choice they like, rather than out of a sense of duty to find the least worst option and being motivated to do it under all circumstances.0 -
5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.Pulpstar said:Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(0 -
He could always get the train, sitting in a carriage sanitised beforehand by his minders to ensure that any other passengers only speak in English.JosiasJessop said:Does anyone know if anyone's checking the roads before Thursday's event? We need to ensure that Farage will get there on time without 'immigrants' choking the roads and stopping him getting there on time.
Or perhaps he'll play safe and stay nearby beforehand.0 -
Will they also remove any First Class branding?TheWatcher said:He could always get the train, sitting in a carriage sanitised beforehand by his minders to ensure that any other passengers only speak in English.
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I am tempted myself, but I am not aware of a significant after-market in electoral paraphernalia. Possibily because the quantities in circulation are too high - though this one might not be a sell-out.SeanT said:
Well, now I can say I've either voted for, or donated to, every major political party in the UK - Greens, UKIP, Labour, Tories, LDs, and Mebyon Kernow.MyBurningEars said:@SeanT The mug is every bit as glorious as the righteous indignation it has spawned. Magnificent. I particularly love how stark and bold it is... such a shame you can't buy a matching pair with "British Jobs For British Workers"!!
But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign.
I am the ultimate floating voter.
Also, I have a hunch this mug will be worth something in a few years. It is so discomfiting in reality I reckon many people will "lose" theirs or just dump it in embarrassment. I will wheel mine out on Antiques Roadshow in 2039, and get my £500,000 valuation.
I can sympathise with the floating voter malarkey as I am in a UKIP surge constituency. UKIP are the only major national party I've not voted for at some point, and I've voted Communist, Green and for a piddly defunct party in the past. I'm most likely to vote against them (either tactically Tory and without great enthusiasm, as I did in the very tight last set of local elections, or as a Green/LibDem protest vote just to show that there are votes available on the left of the spectrum too.
But I have decided that if the HOPE Not Hate scum cajole me at some point in this campaign (as well they might, since it seems Operation Purple Rain has this constituency in their sights) I'm minded to turn over to the Lilac Side just to scorn them.0 -
I think it's quite hopeful actually. Our politics needs discord and dissent. It's good that both main parties are on the rack. It's good that the SNP are becoming a serious Westminster force. The one fly in the ointment is the undeniable success of the MSM anti-UKIP campaign, and UKIP's seeming inability to find a coping strategy. But I still have a Micawberish hope that 'something will turn up' for UKIP before the polls.Patrick said:I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.
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..and remember - half of them are even more stupid than that...JonCisBack said:
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(Pulpstar said:Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
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Could scupper UKIP in Rother Valley too.AllyPally_Rob said:http://www.nottinghampost.com/Thoresby-Colliery-close-end-year-500-jobs-lost/story-26238402-detail/story.html
This news should confirm a LAB gain in Sherwood i guess.
A real shame. I did my work experience at that colliery. Well paid highly skilled jobs to be replaced by low skilled low paid employment no doubt.0 -
Indeed.OldKingCole said:
It wasn’t always like that, either.Sean_F said:
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.Pulpstar said:
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
http://www.knowsleyhallvenue.co.uk/our_story.php
I guess he likes his windows, so no mention of the 14th Earl, the famous Tory PM...0 -
So Cameron follows Miliband four times, (twice immediately afterwards) while Miliband follows Cameron twice...always at a remove or two..oh dear.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Hahah -exactly!Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. Most notably the lineLuckyguy1983 said:
Few lines missing there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nabavi,
Our Father
Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy subsamples
And give us this day our daily poll
And forgive us our smears,
As we forgive those who smear against us
And lead us not into the single currency
For thine is the kingdom
Forever and ever
Amen
Back to comfirmation class for you!
"But deliver us from Brussels"
And
Thy line be spun
Thy voters come
In Perth as they do in Devon
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It's a geographic and demographic thing, massive block of older voters and plenty of 18 year old lefties. Labour held it under Blair and the Tory Spink became independent soon after winning it back.Sean_F said:
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.Pulpstar said:
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.SeanT said:
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.FrancisUrquhart said:I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
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Donald Williams @donsview · 1h1 hour ago
Pie in the sky David Cameron claims he has created more than 18 MILLION jobs in TV gaffe
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-claims-created-more-5431988 … ”
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Choose "UKIP" in this poll for maximum voodoo effect.Sunil_Prasannan said:Donald Williams @donsview · 1h1 hour ago
Pie in the sky David Cameron claims he has created more than 18 MILLION jobs in TV gaffe
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-claims-created-more-5431988 … ”0 -
I remember a primary schoolteacher asking "Who is the President of Britain at the moment, I've forgotten?" What chance do her pupils have?JonCisBack said:
5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.Pulpstar said:Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
I remember once persuading someone on a rough estate to vote who'd never done it before - she was in her 30s. She was completely at square 1 - Where do I go? How do I know who the candidates are? How many can I vote for? I talked her though it and strolled along with her to the polling station - it wass about 11am so there wasn't any great rush. Afterwards, she said "That was quite fun, but sort of weird."
I wonder if she ever did it again.
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They did have to go through the ordeal of Farage turning up there and flicking ash on anyone coming out the pound shop. That would disillusion most most leftie young adult!0
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Betfair most seats, CON back above 1.5 and £10k avail at that price.0
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