Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
I'm merely trying to establish if you think it is a forecast with merit or just a joke. If, as you seem to imply here, you do believe in the strength of your forecast, well done.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
My record stands the test.
However I always believe that a little light hearted humour is never misplaced in the world of politics and many have said the old jokes are the best and a little recycling is a worthy cause.
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
Some interesting comments on a quiet (and at the moment snowy, though it'll melt) morning.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
Some people have suggested the Progressive party. Seems a bit meaningless to me. The key would be to be:
Pro business. (Probably lower CT)
Pro growth.
Focussed on improving our education system from the current wave of disasters through the Curriculum for Excellence and the devastation of our College system.
Focus on key infrastructure to make Scotland an investment opportunity.
Focus on our fairly appalling housing situation.
Absolutely not focussed on constitutional arrangements which Scottish politicians of all stripes have spent the last 20 years obsessing about but committed to the UK, albeit with a large level of devolution.
I would see such a party supporting much, if not necessarily all, of the Tory economic agenda in rUK but being much more moderate on social policy. But then that would make it very much like me so that is probably a bit selfish!
I see UKIP's BFFs Britain First, have lived up to their promise
Far right extremists Britain First last night launched a retaliation attack on campaigners who recently confronted Nigel Farage at his local pub.
Shouting "left-wing scum, off our streets" the Britain First activists tried to force their way into a meeting being held by the 'Beyond Ukip' group at an office block in Old Street, London.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
I'm merely trying to establish if you think it is a forecast with merit or just a joke. If, as you seem to imply here, you do believe in the strength of your forecast, well done.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
My record stands the test.
However I always believe that a little light hearted humour is never misplaced in the world of politics and many have said the old jokes are the best and a little recycling is a worthy cause.
Quite so Jack, I mean if the SNP can keep re-cycling the same leader......
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I have three daughters, the car seat issue is the least of your problems.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Defence, immigration, europe, tax and a dislike of New Labour's social policies are all very important issues for core Conservatives.
Cameron has disappointed on the first, massively under delivered on the second, achieved little on the third, not delivered what was in the manifesto on the fourth and enthusiastically embraced the fifth.
Regardless of whether you agree with him or not, that's why he has lost some Tory support. Crucially, an awful lot of members and activists as well.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
just don't buy her an iphone, after that you will be an irrelevance
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I have three daughters, the car seat issue is the least of your problems.
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
I'm merely trying to establish if you think it is a forecast with merit or just a joke. If, as you seem to imply here, you do believe in the strength of your forecast, well done.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
My record stands the test.
However I always believe that a little light hearted humour is never misplaced in the world of politics and many have said the old jokes are the best and a little recycling is a worthy cause.
Quite so Jack, I mean if the SNP can keep re-cycling the same leader......
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
Sean, you just have to go with the flow and treat them as young aspiring adults. They will want to do different things with you and often good to include their friends on trips etc. Just become the pied piper of Hampstead etc, but they will still expect leadership from you and a shoulder to cry on when all goes wrong - even though you told them so!
Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).
Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.
However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.
You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.
Chicken! :-)
More of a case of not wanting people to realise why his ARSE has such a firm grasp of the situation.
Is there soothsaying water in Devizes or the Bridge of Gaur ?
Long years of surveying the political landscape, methinks
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Defence, immigration, europe, tax and a dislike of New Labour's social policies are all very important issues for core Conservatives.
Cameron has disappointed on the first, massively under delivered on the second, achieved little on the third, not delivered what was in the manifesto on the fourth and enthusiastically embraced the fifth.
Regardless of whether you agree with him or not, that's why he has lost some Tory support. Crucially, an awful lot of members and activists as well.
Exactly. The counter-argument is that Labour would be *even worse* on these issues, and that may well carry the Conservatives over the winning line this time round. But, that argument won't work forever.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
Sean, you just have to go with the flow and treat them as young aspiring adults. They will want to do different things with you and often good to include their friends on trips etc. Just become the pied piper of Hampstead etc, but they will still expect leadership from you and a shoulder to cry on when all goes wrong - even though you told them so!
I would agree with all of the above, particularly including their friends on trips. We are still good friends with all our daughters mates, and our eldest is 40 next week. We buy gifts for their kids now they have their own etc, been a delight to watch them all become mature adults.
One other tip, try to get your daughter to take all of her exams when she is 13/14 while she still knows everything.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
More poignant than that is the first time your daughter says "Please don't go, Daddy" when you have to make a business trip. I remember that very clearly. She was four.
If the result ends up as JackW's ARSE predicts (Which I think is too optimistic for the Tories...) then I reckon the Lib Dems would abstain from the Queen's speech whilst they sort out the leadership.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
Farron is very popular in his constituency but I've heard some senior members consider him to be a legend in his own lunchtime rather than a viable leader of the party.
Jack - were there to be a LibDems' post GE election leadership contest and leaving aside Tim Farron's chances, who would you fancy to get the top job from the party's say 30 surviving MPs?
It has the potential to be quite a diverse field.
I'd expect Norman Lamb, Simon Hughes, Ed Davey, David Laws, Lynne Featherstone, Steve Webb and Vince Cable to consider a run.
Much would depend on timing. The longer the chances of Vince diminishes. If Lynne Featherstone survives the election she would be my value tip.
Thanks for that Jack, FWIW here are their current odds: Norman Lamb ........... 7/1 Simon Hughes .......... 8/1 Ed Davey .................. 9/1 David Laws .............. 25/1 Lynne Featherstone .. 50/1 Steve Webb ............. 20/1 Vince Cable .............. 8/1
Ms Featherstone looks a great trading bet if as you say she survives the GE and I've has a couple of quid on her to win a ton.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Con edging ever close to an overall majority with The ARSE...
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority - actual or de facto - would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Labour is reaping what it has sown. The anti-Tory vote is all that it has left. And that really is not good enough.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
They evolve.
You go from the gurgles and smiles and staring eyes to the excited shouts of "Daddy!" and running to cuddle your legs or open armed requests to be carried as you walk in the door after work.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
Evolve is the word. Those moments will never come again, but they’ll be replaced. Sometimes they look bad at the time, but you look back at them fondly as evidence of developing maturity.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
More poignant than that is the first time your daughter says "Please don't go, Daddy" when you have to make a business trip. I remember that very clearly. She was four.
I remember when my daughter first said "Please don't go, Dad" to me too.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
Evolve is the word. Those moments will never come again, but they’ll be replaced. Sometimes they look bad at the time, but you look back at them fondly as evidence of developing maturity.
Exactly. The key is to be there with them and for them. Watching them grow and develop - sometimes day by day - is a continuous joy. JJ has so much to look forward to.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
More poignant than that is the first time your daughter says "Please don't go, Daddy" when you have to make a business trip. I remember that very clearly. She was four.
I remember when my daughter first said "Please don't go, Dad" to me too.
I was going to watch Chelsea.
She had your best interests at heart. My eldest is now 25 and still seems indifferent to my presence or absence. Maybe one day.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
Evolve is the word. Those moments will never come again, but they’ll be replaced. Sometimes they look bad at the time, but you look back at them fondly as evidence of developing maturity.
If you can, try and record the noises he makes now as a baby, and as speech develops during the toddler years. It's great when they can walk and talk, and follow you about asking questions. Never a dull moment.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
LDs doing better where Labour are challengers (due to fears of far lefty SNP alliance) would scupper Ed in toto. LDs doing worse where tories are second would finish him off.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
More poignant than that is the first time your daughter says "Please don't go, Daddy" when you have to make a business trip. I remember that very clearly. She was four.
I remember when my daughter first said "Please don't go, Dad" to me too.
I was going to watch Chelsea.
My boys asked to come with me to Spurs. Saying Yes was probably the worst thing I have ever done as a parent.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
Is there some joke I'm missing and there are people here take JackW seriously when doing his best Johnny Ball impression?
Is there some actual methodology or is it the case of humouring the less fortunate?
It comes across as the guy at work who thought of a funny joke at a christmas party once and still keeps repeating it 6 months later while co-workers feign a small murmur of laughter to avoid offence.
I knew a bloke like that once ..... he kept bringing out an exceedingly unfunny joke about a kipper tie.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
I had the same thing this morning. The young 'un lies on a pillow for feeding milk, whilst I sit on a rocking chair and hold the pillow. It's superb - I can look in his eyes, and he looks back. Real bonding time.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
Oh, the best years are yet to come - 5-8 are magical (so far, my daughters are both 8). But I can already discern the first hints of teenage sarcasm, amidst the adorable-ness. Sigh.
I was much less keen when they were mewling blobs.
I actually just had a tiny manly sob, thinking about this. It's a kind of happy grief. You want them to grow up and become contented self reliant adults, yet all the signs of that are tinged with regret. And of course guilt. All parents feel guilty.
If the Tories get in, maybe I will have one more child, funded by my tax savings.
My brother calls watching his kids grow up "The greatest show on earth" and I agree with him.
Now with the seventh grandchild on the way we get to do it all again.
Three reasons not to vote Tory: Grant Shapps, George Osborne, David Cameron. All three capable of mendacity and conduct unbecoming of anyone in high public office. The blatant lie over the 3000
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
LDs doing better where Labour are challengers (due to fears of far lefty SNP alliance) would scupper Ed in toto. LDs doing worse where tories are second would finish him off.
What I want to know is, where is Big Mo?
Exactly. Watching for any sign of the Lib Dem corpse twitching in the polls in the next week or so.
If it does, expect a steep upward revision in the Con seat share.
Mr. Observer, fret not. All parents make bad decisions sometimes. I'm sure they'll forgive you. One day.
As a chap without any offspring and little likelihood of them in the near future, it's an interesting thing to see what people have to say on the matter.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
Sean, you just have to go with the flow and treat them as young aspiring adults. They will want to do different things with you and often good to include their friends on trips etc. Just become the pied piper of Hampstead etc, but they will still expect leadership from you and a shoulder to cry on when all goes wrong - even though you told them so!
I would agree with all of the above, particularly including their friends on trips. We are still good friends with all our daughters mates, and our eldest is 40 next week. We buy gifts for their kids now they have their own etc, been a delight to watch them all become mature adults.
One other tip, try to get your daughter to take all of her exams when she is 13/14 while she still knows everything.
It is quite interesting all my children have their own careers - the boys in the UK and my daughter who lives in Spain with her two children - all have become increasingly close in the last 5-10 years. The boys speak several times a week - mainly about business - as they both are struggling a bit with the increased responsibility of leading plcs and my daughter who runs the European end of an American business talks not just about the children but grabs me for her strategic planning.
Like others here, when they were younger I was travelling globally a lot, and partially solved that problem by getting them to fly out for half-term etc to where I was based for a while and that way we could stay together but they grew up with a better understanding of the world and how it worked.
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
To be fair they have a statement each for a minute then argue for quarter of an hour so apart from the sign off, I can't see that it matters
On the face of it it looks good for Cameron to get the last word though, makes him look like the authority
If I were Farage id say ' what you are about to hear from Cameron will be no more believable than the promises he made , and broke, this time five years ago, no top down reorganisation of the nhs, no ifs no buts on immigration, all broken promises... Over to you Dave
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Truly unpleasant for Cameron.
I hope you are right. It's not been much fun being on the centre left lately.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
LDs doing better where Labour are challengers (due to fears of far lefty SNP alliance) would scupper Ed in toto. LDs doing worse where tories are second would finish him off.
What I want to know is, where is Big Mo?
Exactly. Watching for any sign of the Lib Dem corpse twitching in the polls in the next week or so.
If it does, expect a steep upward revision in the Con seat share.
That's the key, Ben. The LibDem's are going to do much better than predicted and Labour far,far worse.
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
To be fair they have a statement each did a minute then argue for quarter of an hour so apart from the last sign off, I can't see that it matters
On the face of it it looks good for Cameron to get the last word though, makes him look like the authority
More than that, it sets him and "continuity" against "the rest" and "chaos".
Since the weekend there has been a marked shift to the conservatives and it seems increasingly possible that they could get a majority. The clear threat to labour in Scotland and their tack left in what will be a vain attempt to stem the hemorrhage of votes north of the border, the declared intention by 40 plus labour mps south of the border to align with the SNP anti austerity policies, the abolition of Trident, and the SNP s decision to vote on English health and education matters will simply be unacceptable to a lot of voters particularly floating voters south of the border.
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
To be fair they have a statement each for a minute then argue for quarter of an hour so apart from the sign off, I can't see that it matters
On the face of it it looks good for Cameron to get the last word though, makes him look like the authority
If I were Farage id say ' what you are about to hear from Cameron will be no more believable than the promises he made , and broke, this time five years ago, no top down reorganisation of the nhs, no ifs no buts on immigration, all broken promises... Over to you Dave
Yes 6th is pretty good for Farage too - dismiss all the lefties quickly then get stuck into DC...
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
Way to go Greens in Bristol! I am on this one.
Still think Greens won't win Bristol West on the current boundaries. If you could lop off Lawrence Hill and add in Southville from across the river they might have a chance.
There are too many bad wards. Lawrence Hill is a poor area that is solidly Lab. Clifton and to a lesser extent Clifton East and Cotham are too prosperous. They might vote for the Lib Dems but can't see them voting Green. If you look at the last local election results for each ward you get the following for Green:
Allowing for higher GE turnout and for some students not being registered, I think the Greens will get 20-25%. Think the most likely result is Lab - 30-35%, LD - 20-25%, Green 20-25%, Con 15-20%, Others 5%
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
Surely the danger is that some of those Lib Dems peel off and either stay home or go back to the Lib Dems.
Mr. NorthWales, not sure I buy that. There's always some statistical noise. Just as the media was stupid to go all giddy over Labour's 4pt lead, so the last few shouldn't be cause for any real shift in sentiment from politicians, media or punters.
I do agree that the SNP could be the Conservatives' best friend in England.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
More poignant than that is the first time your daughter says "Please don't go, Daddy" when you have to make a business trip. I remember that very clearly. She was four.
My 3 year old is already on "please don't got to work on a Saturday, Daddy"
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
To be fair they have a statement each did a minute then argue for quarter of an hour so apart from the last sign off, I can't see that it matters
On the face of it it looks good for Cameron to get the last word though, makes him look like the authority
More than that, it sets him and "continuity" against "the rest" and "chaos".
Quite good for Farage to precede him though... He can ask him an outright question on immigration and the EU that he knows Cameron won't be able to give a straight answer to and people will see Caneron dodging/squirming/not answering
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
I'm merely trying to establish if you think it is a forecast with merit or just a joke. If, as you seem to imply here, you do believe in the strength of your forecast, well done.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
My record stands the test.
However I always believe that a little light hearted humour is never misplaced in the world of politics and many have said the old jokes are the best and a little recycling is a worthy cause.
Quite so Jack, I mean if the SNP can keep re-cycling the same leader......
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back -
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
Way to go Greens in Bristol! I am on this one.
Still think Greens won't win Bristol West on the current boundaries. If you could lop off Lawrence Hill and add in Southville from across the river they might have a chance.
There are too many bad wards. Lawrence Hill is a poor area that is solidly Lab. Clifton and to a lesser extent Clifton East and Cotham are too prosperous. They might vote for the Lib Dems but can't see them voting Green. If you look at the last local election results for each ward you get the following for Green:
Allowing for higher GE turnout and for some students not being registered, I think the Greens will get 20-25%. Think the most likely result is Lab - 30-35%, LD - 20-25%, Green 20-25%, Con 15-20%, Others 5%
I had a look at the local election results and concluded laying the Lib Dems was a sound strategy here.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Truly unpleasant for Cameron.
I hope you are right. It's not been much fun being on the centre left lately.
It seems to me that the best result for him would be one where he gets enough seats to remain in government, but not enough to deliver the policies his backbenchers and activists want.
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm sure of it.
But, let's suppose that Labour is in a position to form a minority government. They're also in a position to stick two fingers up at the SNP, who've said they'd vote out the Conservatives regardless.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Can't see Tories getting close to majority. I think 300 seats is the ceiling. But I perceive the election is slipping from Labour - good GDP figures this morning reinforce the Tory message (even though substance somewhat lacking: all the benchmarks being lauded today now ought to have been passed 2 years ago). But Lib Dem collapse is the last plank that keeps Labour in the game. I've always thought Labour will poll 33% based on this and being at rock bottom in 2010.
A Tory majority would be truly unpleasant. Anything else I can live with.
Truly unpleasant for Cameron.
I hope you are right. It's not been much fun being on the centre left lately.
It seems to me that the best result for him would be one where he gets enough seats to remain in government, but not enough to deliver the policies his backbenchers and activists want.
There was an article in the Spectator this week saying that Cameron was very keen on a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
Since Broxtowe is a swing marginal seat, can we expect regular updates from Nick, our Broxtowe contributor, about Labour's progress there or would that be giving away inside information?
I'll chat anecdotally as I did last time, mainly for amusement, but won't disclose anything that isn't locally known. I have a copy of the Tory campaign plan from disaffected local members - it's fairly similar to ours though there are a few interesting differences, which I'll comment on after the election. They had a big push to get leaflets out before the short campaign ended, but only have one general leaflet still to come (next weekend), plus the freeposts and selected direct mails. That might be wise as leaflet fatigue undoubtedly sets in - we'll see.
Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority
It's important to bear in mind that Nick's undoubtedly strong ground game also applied in 2010, so it's already 'in the price'.
Yes and no. Around 25% of the electorate has moved/died, so the personal vote by definition will have declined, in addition to anyone who has simply forgotten or feels it was all very nice but hey, it's in the past. On the other hand, I'm getting vastly more help this time (2010 was in reality just me and local mates - the national party gave up on it) and the current incumbency factor is in my opinion not proving a net positive here, especially with LibDems.
The main factor does remain the 17% of the voters that the LibDems got last time on the back of quite successful selling of the idea that they might win. Nobody is saying that this time, and it's really very rare to meet a General Election LibDem (though they're still holding a chunk of local votes). They will finally disclose their candidate (a retiring councillor) today.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
Alex Salmond has boasted in the past how he has worked with the conservatives and the SNP must realise that David Cameron will give them far more than labour but obviously they could not give even a hint at this time that they could get the 'best' deal from the conservatives as it would play into labours hands
And this was before some fairly stonking stats this morning.
Osborne has played an absolute blinder. Achieving this peak in the economy at the exact end of a FTP must involve a very large slice of luck but also an astonishing level of skill and judgement.
And yet - despite this - there is still a pretty good chance that Labour will become the next government.
Does anyone know how to deal with My Kids Are Growing Up Grief? My eldest, Lucy, no longer needs her child seat in the car. It has been exiled to the attic.
These transitions are so sudden, and too poignant.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back -
Be careful what you wish for :-)
Yes I remember my daughter came out with 'My daddy has the biggest willy in the whole world' Thankfully she only had my 5 year old son to compare with but I was none the less mortified!
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm sure of it.
But, let's suppose that Labour is in a position to form a minority government. They're also in a position to stick two fingers up at the SNP, who've said they'd vote out the Conservatives regardless.
No, it just means it will be a deal by deal arrangement. If Labour want the relative stability of confidence and supply then Trident is the SNP's price. It's a remarkably simple and straightforward negotiating tactic. Labour won't accede to it if they get in, so deal by deal it will be.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
It makes life much easier for them. I don't buy the idea they'd just try and cause trouble, their whole agenda has been about trying to look competent. If a Labour government is dependent on the SNP it gives them responsibility. I think they'd rather have a an anti-SNP tory government and then get on with running Scotland themselves.
1st impression - Looks good for Dave, gets the closer.
More detailed:
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4. Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement. Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
If I were Farage id say ' what you are about to hear from Cameron will be no more believable than the promises he made , and broke, this time five years ago, no top down reorganisation of the nhs, no ifs no buts on immigration, all broken promises... Over to you Dave
"From the man who'd put Ed Miliband in Downing Street and no referendum on the EU, I need no lessons in believability"
@SeanT: my three are between 16 and 22. Believe me, you will still be needed long past the age when they have to be strapped into anything.
Every step they make to independence is proof that you're doing your job as a parent. And it makes the time they do want to spend with you all the sweeter.
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm sure of it.
But, let's suppose that Labour is in a position to form a minority government. They're also in a position to stick two fingers up at the SNP, who've said they'd vote out the Conservatives regardless.
Not if they don't have most seats in England, they can't. The SNP dream scenario is Labour + SNP = absolute majority in UK, but Labour having fewer seats than the Conservatives in England. That looks likely.
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm sure of it.
But, let's suppose that Labour is in a position to form a minority government. They're also in a position to stick two fingers up at the SNP, who've said they'd vote out the Conservatives regardless.
Comments
However I always believe that a little light hearted humour is never misplaced in the world of politics and many have said the old jokes are the best and a little recycling is a worthy cause.
what did you expect ?
For example what was the number of young people out of work under Labour?
Labour still run the NHS in Wales, how are they performing?
I can't stand Soubry but I really hope she wins.
To see your prediction, click on the below link
http://bit.ly/1NCC4e1
Then in the nojam widget box, click on "search" type your name, and you should be able to find your entry
Cameron has disappointed on the first, massively under delivered on the second, achieved little on the third, not delivered what was in the manifesto on the fourth and enthusiastically embraced the fifth.
Regardless of whether you agree with him or not, that's why he has lost some Tory support. Crucially, an awful lot of members and activists as well.
Pulpstar (Seats) 285 272 27 4 1 40
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-32036101
What is it about Northern based, Pakistani heritage Muslim Tories that makes them love Jihadi Extremists? #fifthcolumn
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3016406/Walter-Mitty-Tory-vote-fixer-exposed-MoS-wrote-jihadi-pamphlet-calling-warriors-create-Muslim-state-Europe.html
But it would be unfair of me to say more.
Con 283
Lab 270
SNP 47
Lib Dems 25
UKIP 4
Green 1
One other tip, try to get your daughter to take all of her exams when she is 13/14 while she still knows everything.
Norman Lamb ........... 7/1
Simon Hughes .......... 8/1
Ed Davey .................. 9/1
David Laws .............. 25/1
Lynne Featherstone .. 50/1
Steve Webb ............. 20/1
Vince Cable .............. 8/1
Ms Featherstone looks a great trading bet if as you say she survives the GE and I've has a couple of quid on her to win a ton.
I won't be able to do this for much longer - he's already too long for the pillow, and the milk feeds are getting fewer and fewer. This morning he took the bottle out of his mouth, stared right at me and beamed the biggest smile you have ever seen. It's indescribably lovely.
Yet soon he'll be a toddler, he'll start talking - and talking back - and those perfect moments of connection will go. Or, hopefully, evolve.
You go from the gurgles and smiles and staring eyes to the excited shouts of "Daddy!" and running to cuddle your legs or open armed requests to be carried as you walk in the door after work.
I was going to watch Chelsea.
LDs doing worse where tories are second would finish him off.
What I want to know is, where is Big Mo?
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/debate.jpg?w=540&h=222
Now with the seventh grandchild on the way we get to do it all again.
If it does, expect a steep upward revision in the Con seat share.
As a chap without any offspring and little likelihood of them in the near future, it's an interesting thing to see what people have to say on the matter.
Ed never gets to follow DC directly. DC goes straight after Ed on Q2 and Q4.
Farage follows DC directly on Q3 (immigration?) whereas DC follows Farage on closing statement.
Sturgeon & Ed never respond directly to each other
Like others here, when they were younger I was travelling globally a lot, and partially solved that problem by getting them to fly out for half-term etc to where I was based for a while and that way we could stay together but they grew up with a better understanding of the world and how it worked.
2 Farage
3 Clegg
4 Miliband
5 Wood
6 Sturgeon
7 Cameron ?
On the face of it it looks good for Cameron to get the last word though, makes him look like the authority
If I were Farage id say ' what you are about to hear from Cameron will be no more believable than the promises he made , and broke, this time five years ago, no top down reorganisation of the nhs, no ifs no buts on immigration, all broken promises... Over to you Dave
There are too many bad wards. Lawrence Hill is a poor area that is solidly Lab. Clifton and to a lesser extent Clifton East and Cotham are too prosperous. They might vote for the Lib Dems but can't see them voting Green. If you look at the last local election results for each ward you get the following for Green:
Ashley (2013) - 35% (1st)
Bishopston (2014) - 47% (1st)
Cabot (2013) - 20% (3rd - LD won)
Clifton (2013) - 10% (5th - Con won)
Clifton East (2013) - 16% (4th - LD won)
Cotham (2013) - 18% (3rd - LD won)
Easton (2013) - 29% (2nd - Lab won)
Lawrence Hill (2013) - 8% (5th - Lab won)
Redland (2014) - 36% (1st)
Allowing for higher GE turnout and for some students not being registered, I think the Greens will get 20-25%. Think the most likely result is Lab - 30-35%, LD - 20-25%, Green 20-25%, Con 15-20%, Others 5%
I do agree that the SNP could be the Conservatives' best friend in England.
http://www.itv.com/presscentre/press-packs/itv-leaders-debate-format-details#
Download the grid to see the order.
Dave gets to do his closing last - prime rib spot.
Perhaps we'll find out.
Who is moderating this one ?
@SophyRidgeSky: Ed Balls is giving a speech on Labour's help for small business. In a graveyard. #GE2015 http://t.co/OuvRWst7qr
But, let's suppose that Labour is in a position to form a minority government. They're also in a position to stick two fingers up at the SNP, who've said they'd vote out the Conservatives regardless.
Around 20% of the audience will be “undecided”
"Undecided" my foot.
The main factor does remain the 17% of the voters that the LibDems got last time on the back of quite successful selling of the idea that they might win. Nobody is saying that this time, and it's really very rare to meet a General Election LibDem (though they're still holding a chunk of local votes). They will finally disclose their candidate (a retiring councillor) today.
Every step they make to independence is proof that you're doing your job as a parent. And it makes the time they do want to spend with you all the sweeter.