Tories 1.1% ahead in this week's ELBOW so far, inc. last night's YG, but excluding TNS (inc. TNS figures to follow!)
Don't add TNS to your elbow just yet, they've got a formatting issue I think, and bolloxed the SNP figures.
Formatting issues don't concern me, Admiral! I want that ship, not excuses!
I think it is more than a formatting issue.
4% SNP is OK for a national poll? Shurely?
If it's the same survey being discussed in the comments on the latest posting on scotgoespop, one might do well to share the commentator's scepticism about reading, for intsance, what seem to be 2% in Scotland with Lab and Con on 35% and 34%, and the same SNP vote in the SE of England.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Surely tories for Palmer will carry the day?
Indeed and not forgetting that Peter the Punter might reprise his 2010 role with "Cross Dressers For Palmer".
Although at the time there was some confusion in Broxtowe when angry naturists came out as "Angry Nudists For Tories".
And this was before some fairly stonking stats this morning.
Osborne has played an absolute blinder. Achieving this peak in the economy at the exact end of a FTP must involve a very large slice of luck but also an astonishing level of skill and judgement.
And yet - despite this - there is still a pretty good chance that Labour will become the next government.
Yeah.
Sigh.
A simple average of this week's five polls has the Conservatives leading 34.8% to 33.4%, but there have been plenty of weeks where the Conservatives started well, only to fall back.
That is not nearly enough Sean. All this talk of the Labour meltdown in Scotland rather ignores the fact that the SNP will not vote for a Conservative government. So Labour losing 30 seats up here helps the Tories to be the largest party but does not get them 1 step closer to a majority (unless they win Dumfries & Galloway of course).
A 4%+ swing in England makes Labour the largest party. The Tories need to at least halve that swing to hang on. It is possible but they have a lot to do. Most election campaigns make relatively little difference. This is why Electionforecast said the swing back was over. This might be the exception. Maybe.
Absolutely nothing is set in stone for this election. But the assumption that a tory lead of 1-2% means they are winning is just wrong. They need much more than that.
If the Tories score anything like 40% in England then they will undoubtedly be the largest party. Labour look like they are building up votes in their heartlands like the North, Wales and East London. I think this could be an election where Labour's vote becomes less efficient and the Tory vote becomes more efficient because of UKIP taking votes in Tory shires but not really doing anything in terms of seats.
Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You will probably disagree but the fraudulence of the renegotiation is due to Cameron's heart not truly being in it, and his EU counterparts sensing that, not that there's no prospect of a real satisfactory deal.
But, for the latter, Cameron would have had to go in very hard from day one. And meant it.
Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
Well, they have lost the "none of the above" protest voters and those who thought the Lib Dems were Labour Lite. I guess they are targeting centrists who think they can be a useful and moderating part of a coalition. Still being in government helps make that point. Clegg will be introduced on Thursday to the TV audience as Deputy Prime Minister.
There's a personal aspect to this, too. Disengagement wouldn't be credible unless they got rid of Clegg. But getting rid of Clegg would potentially be messy, unless he's prepared to go of his own accord.
Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy) 31/03/2015 11:46 That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
Actually getting lumbered with the promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
That's why as I said upthread, an overall majority would be the last thing Cameron would want.
Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the election
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?
The government and ministers remain in office until the Queen appoints a new PM. Twas ever thus.
I don't think from the early exchanges that differentiation in the campaign will be a problem for either the Conservatives or the LibDems.
That's no answer. It was perfectly possible for the LDs to formally dissolve the Coalition, and leave office yesterday or before.
Why haven't they done so?
Probably for several reasons, not least would be :
1. They agreed the Coalition would run the full course through the election. 2. Last minute chaos in government as a new Cabinet and ministers are put in place. 3. It would correctly appear as a political stunt.
Still no answer.
1. They agreed a full Parliament, which ended yesterday. 2. Only if they hadn't signalled it in advance. There was no chaos in 1945, or on previous occasions. 3. On the contrary, it was the proper and usual thing to do, unless we are having a "coupon" election, which we're not!
It might not be the answer you liked but it is the answer.
As an interesting aside, what is the minimum number of seats do you think each leader needs to survive; Miliband- I would suggest anything under 265 and he will be in big trouble, anything between 265-275 he will be vulnerable, over 280 safe
Cameron- the figure is higher, under 280 and he will be an ex leader, 280-290- he maybe can carry on, and over 290 safe
30 for Clegg is the figure; 25-30 he will be able to cling on maybe, over 30 he will be jubilant.
I think you're right for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. For David Cameron I think the test is simpler - if he stays as Prime Minister, he stays as party leader, but otherwise he's out.
Nigel Farage needs only one seat - his own. But if he fails to get that, we could see a full-on ruck in UKIP, because it's hard to imagine him going quietly and it's hard to imagine him not being challenged if others get elected and he doesn't.
That is why I think the 280 figure is critical for Cameron. If he gets 280-late 280's or above he will hunker down at number 10 and dare Labour to oust him- Labour with fewer seats, fewer votes and backed by the SNP. Anything above 290 and Cameron is safe to run a minority govt.
You cannot help but think that the Scottish referendum has been great for Cameron. He won it and completely dismantled Labour's electoral advantage in one clean hit.
Who would vote through a Conservative budget if they have 280 seats?
I don't think they could pass a budget at 280. But at 280, Labour will be at the 260-265 range and even with the SNP's not quite there. If you remember that Gordon tried to hunker down from a much worse position; Cameron will not shift if he gets to 280- he will dig the moat and stock up on gunpowder and provisions.
Gordon Brown did not "hunker down". He carried his constitutional duty to remain PM whilst there was no alternative. Cam will do the same.
@DavidL For all the talk (And betting ) on Scotland, it is almost an irrelevance to who becomes PM.
As you note, Dumfries and Galloway, and I reckon the two other border constituencies are the exception to that.
Nuneaton, Pudsey, Broxtowe, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Croydon Central will decide the next PM - not Glenrothes, interesting though that seat will be.
2010 will surely never be beaten in Scotland as the most boring election ever with not a single seat changing hands and most, if anything, becoming less marginal.
I don't think that will be the case this time. That might not even my bravest prediction of the campaign.
Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the election
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?
I think the Lib Dems wanted to show that coalitions are stable, secure and don't force the electorate to suffer the twelve labours of Hercules.
The government has a public duty to remain in office until the election and beyond until a new government is formed.
Rubbish. Balfour 1905? Bonar Law 1922? Attlee 1945?
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromised
The mug is actually quite astonishing in reality. Who would honestly order one of these, and think it a "good thing"? Who would proudly serve tea in it?
The mug is designed so that when right handed people hold it, the logo points outwards. Why not invite your Slovak neighbours to share a cuppa, then hold your racist Labour mug in your hand, giving them the message?
It takes a kind of genius to make something so crass.
@paulwaugh: .@edballsmp not remotely abashed about Labour's Immigration mug. After the elxn 'I can do a toast in that mug' #SkyNews
@DPJHodges: Jesus. Ed Balls on immigration mug. "I'm going to buy one and put it in my constituency office".
@DPJHodges: Balls. "After the election I'm going to raise a toast with it".
Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe. a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen. b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more. c) ???
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy) 31/03/2015 11:46 That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way
I 100% disagree with this. It shows that the party leaders have got brains. And, perhaps, that some of our political interviewers have forgotten that the exercise of an interview is to give us an informed understanding of the interviewee's views rather than those of the interviewer.
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) 31/03/2015 12:46 Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
Tories 1.1% ahead in this week's ELBOW so far, inc. last night's YG, but excluding TNS (inc. TNS figures to follow!)
Don't add TNS to your elbow just yet, they've got a formatting issue I think, and bolloxed the SNP figures.
Formatting issues don't concern me, Admiral! I want that ship, not excuses!
I think it is more than a formatting issue.
4% SNP is OK for a national poll? Shurely?
If it's the same survey being discussed in the comments on the latest posting on scotgoespop, one might do well to share the commentator's scepticism about reading, for intsance, what seem to be 2% in Scotland with Lab and Con on 35% and 34%, and the same SNP vote in the SE of England.
Mind you, I did see a recent tweet that the London branch of the SNP has more members than the LDs have in the the whole of Scotland...
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.
@ComResPolls: We have new polling out this eve looking at the state of the race in Labour's forty Scottish seats. Exclusive on @ITVNews at 6.30pm. #GE2015
As an interesting aside, what is the minimum number of seats do you think each leader needs to survive; Miliband- I would suggest anything under 265 and he will be in big trouble, anything between 265-275 he will be vulnerable, over 280 safe
Cameron- the figure is higher, under 280 and he will be an ex leader, 280-290- he maybe can carry on, and over 290 safe
30 for Clegg is the figure; 25-30 he will be able to cling on maybe, over 30 he will be jubilant.
I think you're right for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. For David Cameron I think the test is simpler - if he stays as Prime Minister, he stays as party leader, but otherwise he's out.
Nigel Farage needs only one seat - his own. But if he fails to get that, we could see a full-on ruck in UKIP, because it's hard to imagine him going quietly and it's hard to imagine him not being challenged if others get elected and he doesn't.
That is why I think the 280 figure is critical for Cameron. If he gets 280-late 280's or above he will hunker down at number 10 and dare Labour to oust him- Labour with fewer seats, fewer votes and backed by the SNP. Anything above 290 and Cameron is safe to run a minority govt.
You cannot help but think that the Scottish referendum has been great for Cameron. He won it and completely dismantled Labour's electoral advantage in one clean hit.
Who would vote through a Conservative budget if they have 280 seats?
I don't think they could pass a budget at 280. But at 280, Labour will be at the 260-265 range and even with the SNP's not quite there. If you remember that Gordon tried to hunker down from a much worse position; Cameron will not shift if he gets to 280- he will dig the moat and stock up on gunpowder and provisions.
I agree. If Cameron is ahead he will meet parliament. The question for Labour would be would they try to take office having "lost" the election. Would they walk into the trap of being dependent on the SNP? The trouble is with the scenario you describe is that a minority Conservative government would in practice find it difficult to carry much legislation. The issue of grand coalition would then inevitably arise, I think.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromised
Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.
Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe. a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen. b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more. c) ???
It's going to be (a) - I think the party will start to dissolve in 2017/2018, but that's just me.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromised
Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.
I wonder if the Tories will use Gary Barlow this time around :-)
They probably lucked out that he was exposed as having an extremely tax efficient setup already...imagine if they had plastered him all over their PPB's etc and then it was revealed.
Giles Dilnot (@reporterboy) 31/03/2015 11:46 That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way
I 100% disagree with this. It shows that the party leaders have got brains. And, perhaps, that some of our political interviewers have forgotten that the exercise of an interview is to give us an informed understanding of the interviewee's views rather than those of the interviewer.
I would agree if they didn't try to lie or at least tell half truths constantly... That's why they get a hard time from the likes of Neil
Unfortunately this art of spin and deception is admired by politicians and most political anoraks.. The smug grin of satisfaction when they say something that everyone knows is misleading but can't be seized upon on a technicality is one if the reasons few people trust them
The mug is actually quite astonishing in reality. Who would honestly order one of these, and think it a "good thing"? Who would proudly serve tea in it?
The mug is designed so that when right handed people hold it, the logo points outwards. Why not invite your Slovak neighbours to share a cuppa, then hold your racist Labour mug in your hand, giving them the message?
It takes a kind of genius to make something so crass.
It also says a lot about the Labour membership and activist base that they think any controls on immigration are racist and bigoted. But that's the party they've built up since the 80s.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Terrible research and lack of nous to use someone who can so easily look compromised
Hmm, this is beginning to look like Harriet Harman's 'feminism T-shirt' stunt. #Thatwentwell.
I wonder if the Tories will use Gary Barlow this time around :-)
They probably lucked out that he was exposed as having an extremely tax efficient setup already...imagine if they had plastered him all over their PPB's etc and then it was revealed.
I'll Never Forget Gary Barlow's contribution last time.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
@ComResPolls: We have new polling out this eve looking at the state of the race in Labour's forty Scottish seats. Exclusive on @ITVNews at 6.30pm. #GE2015
As I said yesterday, I reckon celebs, artists and writers should never give overt support to any specific political party, especially in something as visible as a PEB. It alienates and offends.
Does anyone know if anyone's checking the roads before Thursday's event? We need to ensure that Farage will get there on time without 'immigrants' choking the roads and stopping him getting there on time.
Or perhaps he'll play safe and stay nearby beforehand.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
Alex Salmond has boasted in the past how he has worked with the conservatives and the SNP must realise that David Cameron will give them far more than labour but obviously they could not give even a hint at this time that they could get the 'best' deal from the conservatives as it would play into labours hands
The SNP has categorically, unambiguously and without equivocation said it will not put a Tory into No 10.
Full stop.
Were Cameron to survive with the confidence or support of the SNP, then the damage wrought on the LDs by Clegg's tuition fees boo-boo would pale into insignificance.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.
Labour blaming the SNP for their woes is going to wash about as well as UKIP being blamed by the Conservative party for some of theirs though.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.
I don't think they mind - they either have a nasty Dick Dastardly like Cameron doing horrible nasty things like fixing the economy and having a better jobs situation in England than Scotland (all Westminster's fault of course) or you have the weak, useless, economy stuffing dweeb Ed dragging Scotland back.
Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
Actually getting lumbered promise Cameron has made in the form that he's made it is utterly terrible for the Tories. The have an obviously fraudulent "renegotiation", which the leadership then oversells, followed by a referendum that splits their party in two, and a result for either "in" or "out", both of which are worse for them than the status quo of "in but grumpy". Assuming an "in" vote, they then potentially have UKIP doing to them what Salmond is doing to Labour, mopping up a large chunk of permanently miffed voters, and blaming the Tories for the lies that they'll think lost them the vote. Alternatively they get an "out" vote, their donors throw a massive huff, and the party splits over what kind of "out".
It would be hard to come up with anything as bad for the Tory Party if you tried. The back-benchers may not all see it that way, but the people they sent to the coalition negotiations will. I'm not sure how Clegg can help them through it, but pretty much anything would be better for them than what Cameron's promised.
Putting aside for a moment that you love the EU, don't want a referendum, and don't want any powers repatriated, I might agree with you on the Tory party management issues.
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe. a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen. b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more. c) ???
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) 31/03/2015 12:46 Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
I guess when you are accused of hating the UK and its history, believing in the magic money tree, being a vested interest or a client voter, a scrounger, a supporter of unlimited immigration and so on, you develop a zeal to want to defeat your accusers.
That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.
That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable
If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.
I'm certain the SNP would love another 5 years of Cameron. "No more Tory rule" was one of the key Nats campaign points in the indyref. Putting Miliband in runs the risk of Scots actually warming to Labour again, particularly if munificence is inevitably bestowed on Scotland by a weak Miliband administration.
I think that's the whole point of the SNP surge in England. Ensure that the Tories get elected and Scotland is further alienated from Britain. That way they get one step closer to independence.
Off-Topic: What has really surprised me is that the Coalition has ended with a whimper instead of a bang. In fact the LibDems are technically still in office!
I was fully expecting a formal (and self-congratulatory from both sides) disengagement a few weeks before the dissolution, with Cameron carrying on in a technical minority.
What is the LDs strategy here? Anyone know?
That is strange because the coalition has been a remarkable feat of political engineering. Perhaps the internal polling on both sides shows that it is best not to remind people too much, I don't know. But Cameron and Clegg deserve a huge amount of respect for keeping the boat afloat for a full five years.
It was all to do with the budget, there was no way the Lib Dems were going to walk out of government and let the Tories present a solo budget on the eve of the election
OK, but surely they could have done another rose garden conference yesterday?
It's beyond me how the LDs are going to differentiate themselves when they are still in government! What are they playing at?
I think the Lib Dems wanted to show that coalitions are stable, secure and don't force the electorate to suffer the twelve labours of Hercules.
The government has a public duty to remain in office until the election and beyond until a new government is formed.
Rubbish. Balfour 1905? Bonar Law 1922? Attlee 1945?
As I understand it the government remains in office unless they personally resign. Cam is still PM. Balfour resigned in 1905 and Edward VII asked Campbell to form a Lib minority government before a GE in 1906.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
His wife ("partner") managed an even simpler message on Twitter: f*ck the Tories.
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) 31/03/2015 12:46 Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....
I'll bet with you on Rochester and Strood if you like? I'll take worse odds than Mike tips, Even money £50?
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
Our Father Who Art in Heaven Hallowed be thy subsamples And give us this day our daily poll And forgive us our smears, As we forgive those who smear against us And lead us not into the single currency For thine is the kingdom Forever and ever Amen
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) 31/03/2015 12:46 Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
Aw, bless. He really does look like he is clutching at ANY straw.....
I'll bet with you on Rochester and Strood if you like? I'll take worse odds than Mike tips, Even money £50?
I see Mike is still tipping Montgomeryshire. I'm on at 3.5
Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Absolutely, he just made a load of nonsense up. Its basically shows the lack of depth to the labour campaign. Its just Tories eat babies. Thats it.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
I don't like the moral crusade of the Labour party because it will never work in a broadly secular nation. To be fair I don't think you have to be a Labour supporter if you're compassionate and decent but I suppose the party can keep using the line that if you want to keep the nasty Tories out of power Labour is the best option. I'm tired of that kind of thinking which is why I won't vote Labour unless they support PR. Since I live in a safe seat I can stick to my high horse knowing it won't make a difference.
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.
@SeanT The mug is every bit as glorious as the righteous indignation it has spawned. Magnificent. I particularly love how stark and bold it is... such a shame you can't buy a matching pair with "British Jobs For British Workers"!!
But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign?
You may be right, but the interesting question for this site is what happens next in the circumstances you describe. a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen. b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more. c) ???
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.
That doesn't sound like a very big concession. A referendum on PR for Westminster would be, and probably in the Tories' interests, too, but the question is whether they could pass it.
Maybe Cameron and Clegg could play the move that Tory back-benchers played on them with boundaries / Lords reform. Link the EU referendum and the PR referendum (or whatever other Tory-base-upsetting concession they picked) together in the same bill. Labour would presumably vote against. Some Tory back-benchers would vote against it, too. Cameron and Clegg say, too bad, we tried, parliament voted it down, we'll just have to carry on governing.
It'd be interesting to think what that 'monster' concession would be. The logical thing in my mind would be STV for Local Council elections without a referendum but a) would that be enough for the Lib Dems and b) Would the Tories be prepared to offer it / be able to pass it.
Failure to obtain that last time will be viewed as the LD(Liberal)s greatest strategic error since the 1920s...
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
Blimey - I went to LHS.... it wasn't elite then I call tell you!!!!
Our Father Who Art in Heaven Hallowed be thy subsamples And give us this day our daily poll And forgive us our smears, As we forgive those who smear against us And lead us not into the single currency For thine is the kingdom Forever and ever Amen
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.
I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I used to like Martin Freeman. But his PPB last night really pissed me off. It wasn't just the condescending way he talked down to people. It was the way he said he was considerate and compassionate as that's 'the way he was brought up'.
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Indeed. I absolutely loathe celebrities telling me how I should live my life and how I should vote.
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
I don't like the moral crusade of the Labour party because it will never work in a broadly secular nation. To be fair I don't think you have to be a Labour supporter if you're compassionate and decent but I suppose the party can keep using the line that if you want to keep the nasty Tories out of power Labour is the best option. I'm tired of that kind of thinking which is why I won't vote Labour unless they support PR. Since I live in a safe seat I can stick to my high horse knowing it won't make a difference.
That's pretty much how I am, though as I live in a nominal marginal I have finally and reluctantly decided I don't have the luxury of a high horse. It would be great if there was a realistic alternative to Labour on the centre left, or a better Labour party. But we are where we are. I don't want a Tory government, so where I live I have to vote Labour.
I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.
Could this provide us with the devaluation to help re-balance the economy? Are the British voters smarter than we realise?
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
That's a pretty common view amongst the young/under 25s, though. If you don't like a shop, don't go there. If you don't like a town, don't visit. If you don't like a product, don't buy it. If you don't like what people are thinking, don't vote.
In other words, the default mode when they don't like something is to avoid it or disengage. Voting doesn't work like that, of course, but it's value to them tends be measured in terms of personal comfort in exercising a choice they like, rather than out of a sense of duty to find the least worst option and being motivated to do it under all circumstances.
Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
Does anyone know if anyone's checking the roads before Thursday's event? We need to ensure that Farage will get there on time without 'immigrants' choking the roads and stopping him getting there on time.
Or perhaps he'll play safe and stay nearby beforehand.
He could always get the train, sitting in a carriage sanitised beforehand by his minders to ensure that any other passengers only speak in English.
@SeanT The mug is every bit as glorious as the righteous indignation it has spawned. Magnificent. I particularly love how stark and bold it is... such a shame you can't buy a matching pair with "British Jobs For British Workers"!!
But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign.
Well, now I can say I've either voted for, or donated to, every major political party in the UK - Greens, UKIP, Labour, Tories, LDs, and Mebyon Kernow.
I am the ultimate floating voter.
Also, I have a hunch this mug will be worth something in a few years. It is so discomfiting in reality I reckon many people will "lose" theirs or just dump it in embarrassment. I will wheel mine out on Antiques Roadshow in 2039, and get my £500,000 valuation.
I am tempted myself, but I am not aware of a significant after-market in electoral paraphernalia. Possibily because the quantities in circulation are too high - though this one might not be a sell-out.
I can sympathise with the floating voter malarkey as I am in a UKIP surge constituency. UKIP are the only major national party I've not voted for at some point, and I've voted Communist, Green and for a piddly defunct party in the past. I'm most likely to vote against them (either tactically Tory and without great enthusiasm, as I did in the very tight last set of local elections, or as a Green/LibDem protest vote just to show that there are votes available on the left of the spectrum too.
But I have decided that if the HOPE Not Hate scum cajole me at some point in this campaign (as well they might, since it seems Operation Purple Rain has this constituency in their sights) I'm minded to turn over to the Lilac Side just to scorn them.
I have come to the view that mugs, economic good news, debates, polls and all the rest are not going to change much between now and the great day. It's going to be a mess. An unsurvivable coalition of the damned (be that lefty or righty) or a minority dead-man-walking government. Not good for UK plc. Even more so as the Nats are gearing for 5 years' non-stop trouble making and English resentment building. Sell your Pounds.
I think it's quite hopeful actually. Our politics needs discord and dissent. It's good that both main parties are on the rack. It's good that the SNP are becoming a serious Westminster force. The one fly in the ointment is the undeniable success of the MSM anti-UKIP campaign, and UKIP's seeming inability to find a coping strategy. But I still have a Micawberish hope that 'something will turn up' for UKIP before the polls.
Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
..and remember - half of them are even more stupid than that...
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.
Our Father Who Art in Heaven Hallowed be thy subsamples And give us this day our daily poll And forgive us our smears, As we forgive those who smear against us And lead us not into the single currency For thine is the kingdom Forever and ever Amen
Few lines missing there.
Back to comfirmation class for you!
Indeed. Most notably the line
"But deliver us from Brussels"
Hahah -exactly!
And
Thy line be spun Thy voters come In Perth as they do in Devon
I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.
Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.
But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?
Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.
It's a geographic and demographic thing, massive block of older voters and plenty of 18 year old lefties. Labour held it under Blair and the Tory Spink became independent soon after winning it back.
Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.
5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
I remember a primary schoolteacher asking "Who is the President of Britain at the moment, I've forgotten?" What chance do her pupils have?
I remember once persuading someone on a rough estate to vote who'd never done it before - she was in her 30s. She was completely at square 1 - Where do I go? How do I know who the candidates are? How many can I vote for? I talked her though it and strolled along with her to the polling station - it wass about 11am so there wasn't any great rush. Afterwards, she said "That was quite fun, but sort of weird."
They did have to go through the ordeal of Farage turning up there and flicking ash on anyone coming out the pound shop. That would disillusion most most leftie young adult!
Comments
2 polls in April and then an "eve of poll poll" on 5th May;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
So your probably right, we may well have a long wait for MORI.
Although at the time there was some confusion in Broxtowe when angry naturists came out as "Angry Nudists For Tories".
However, Cameron hadn't a choice. Had he not done this he would have suffered major defections to UKIP and possibly a leadership challenge.
You will probably disagree but the fraudulence of the renegotiation is due to Cameron's heart not truly being in it, and his EU counterparts sensing that, not that there's no prospect of a real satisfactory deal.
But, for the latter, Cameron would have had to go in very hard from day one. And meant it.
As you note, Dumfries and Galloway, and I reckon the two other border constituencies are the exception to that.
Nuneaton, Pudsey, Broxtowe, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Croydon Central will decide the next PM - not Glenrothes, interesting though that seat will be.
Now you just need to be canvassed by Labour supporters from an ethnic minority and offer them a cup of tea.
31/03/2015 11:46
That Party leaders are willing to give interviews to Joey Essex but shy clear of @afneil says a great deal about them and not in a good way
http://order-order.com/2015/03/31/labours-martin-fairness-freeman-sends-son-to-private-school/
"The “values” that Freeman chooses encompass sending his young son to the elite Lochinver House School in Potters Bar for the compassionate sum of £12,669 per year"
I don't think that will be the case this time. That might not even my bravest prediction of the campaign.
@DPJHodges: Jesus. Ed Balls on immigration mug. "I'm going to buy one and put it in my constituency office".
@DPJHodges: Balls. "After the election I'm going to raise a toast with it".
a) Keep the pledge as stated, give Clegg some monster concession. Keeps the Tory Party together until 2017, after which they're screwed. But who knows, maybe something lucky will happen.
b) Ditch the whole thing, blame it on Clegg. Cameron looks bad for breaking his personal pledge, but he's already done that with immigration and he's not running again so who cares. But if too many back-benchers defect, there's no majority any more.
c) ???
As if anyone who's a Tory is selfish, nasty and a fundamentally unpleasant individual. I was brought up in exactly the same way, yet I'm bracketed as the opposite just because I don't vote for the Reds.
It really wound me up.
Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless)
31/03/2015 12:46
Political Betting's @MSmithsonPB tips me to win Rochester and Strood in the Independent today pic.twitter.com/pYOyIrd9zx
@thomasknox "I've never voted #Labour before, but we Mugs have to stick together!"
We will vote to stay in, it won't even be close, and UKIP will dwindle to a handful of angry old men who smell of wee.
They probably lucked out that he was exposed as having an extremely tax efficient setup already...imagine if they had plastered him all over their PPB's etc and then it was revealed.
Unfortunately this art of spin and deception is admired by politicians and most political anoraks.. The smug grin of satisfaction when they say something that everyone knows is misleading but can't be seized upon on a technicality is one if the reasons few people trust them
On what he raised, sadly that is the way many on the left view the right. It is almost like a religious crusade for them.
Or perhaps he'll play safe and stay nearby beforehand.
Full stop.
Were Cameron to survive with the confidence or support of the SNP, then the damage wrought on the LDs by Clegg's tuition fees boo-boo would pale into insignificance.
The Nats are stupid. But not that stupid...
Huzzah for Ukip.
The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
Back to comfirmation class for you!
But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign?
Either way could be the last chance to wring any value out of Scotland.
Maybe Cameron and Clegg could play the move that Tory back-benchers played on them with boundaries / Lords reform. Link the EU referendum and the PR referendum (or whatever other Tory-base-upsetting concession they picked) together in the same bill. Labour would presumably vote against. Some Tory back-benchers would vote against it, too. Cameron and Clegg say, too bad, we tried, parliament voted it down, we'll just have to carry on governing.
"But deliver us from Brussels"
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Nov 24
Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537044601065197569
This news should confirm a LAB gain in Sherwood i guess.
A real shame. I did my work experience at that colliery. Well paid highly skilled jobs to be replaced by low skilled low paid employment no doubt.
In other words, the default mode when they don't like something is to avoid it or disengage. Voting doesn't work like that, of course, but it's value to them tends be measured in terms of personal comfort in exercising a choice they like, rather than out of a sense of duty to find the least worst option and being motivated to do it under all circumstances.
The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
I can sympathise with the floating voter malarkey as I am in a UKIP surge constituency. UKIP are the only major national party I've not voted for at some point, and I've voted Communist, Green and for a piddly defunct party in the past. I'm most likely to vote against them (either tactically Tory and without great enthusiasm, as I did in the very tight last set of local elections, or as a Green/LibDem protest vote just to show that there are votes available on the left of the spectrum too.
But I have decided that if the HOPE Not Hate scum cajole me at some point in this campaign (as well they might, since it seems Operation Purple Rain has this constituency in their sights) I'm minded to turn over to the Lilac Side just to scorn them.
http://www.knowsleyhallvenue.co.uk/our_story.php
I guess he likes his windows, so no mention of the 14th Earl, the famous Tory PM...
And
Thy line be spun
Thy voters come
In Perth as they do in Devon
Pie in the sky David Cameron claims he has created more than 18 MILLION jobs in TV gaffe
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-claims-created-more-5431988 … ”
I remember once persuading someone on a rough estate to vote who'd never done it before - she was in her 30s. She was completely at square 1 - Where do I go? How do I know who the candidates are? How many can I vote for? I talked her though it and strolled along with her to the polling station - it wass about 11am so there wasn't any great rush. Afterwards, she said "That was quite fun, but sort of weird."
I wonder if she ever did it again.