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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X

1

RobD

Ishmael_X said:

1

Damn you!!! Hah

Ishmael_X

AHAHAHAHA

RobD

Ishmael_X said:

AHAHAHAHA

PfP is gonna be peeved.....

RobD

I'm going to play it safe, and say 4%, roughly in the middle of the previous two.

CarlottaVance

If, as it appears, the trend is long term decline with sporadic temporary recoveries - then 3.5 - 4 tomorrow looks about right - of course, we await Rogerdamus pronouncement on the matter (7?) to be confident.....

CarlottaVance

Ishmael_X said:

1

That's a low Labour lead......;-)

RobD

Just finished my anorak session for the day by watching the Prorogation ceremony. Wonderful commentary from Daniel Brittain, as always.

Indigo

Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”

Ouch.

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

3 hours

Gadfly

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

felix

Gadfly said:

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

Hm - not good for UKIP although they may get an uptick from the debates. How long it will last is another matter - who remembers Saturday's Milibounce?

Tim_B

The Top Gear exodus continues.. Executive producer Andy Wilman
has quit. not really a surprise as he and Clarkson have been friends since childhood.

Gadfly

felix said:

Gadfly said:

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

Hm - not good for UKIP although they may get an uptick from the debates. How long it will last is another matter - who remembers Saturday's Milibounce?

The 5-poll average emphasises UKIP's recent decline, but the 20-poll longer-term average shows that their star has been waning since it reached its ascendancy late October. The chart possibly also better demonstrates how the Lab v Tory battle is panning out...

DavidL

A lot may depend where the 8 seats chosen for tomorrow are. If they were largely in London then I would expect the swing to be at least 4%, quite possibly more. If they included a couple of Scottish seats then the collapse of SLAB could bring the swing as low as 2%.

Once you go beyond that then you are in the perilous territory of sub samples but the indications seem to be that the Tories are doing quite well in the midlands and reasonably well in the north west. In the south the UKIP factor plays larger so the swing might be exaggerated.

In short, this GE is hopelessly complicated and a broad average may not tell us too much at all. But if we assume they reflect a 2% tory lead as per Lord A yesterday that would produce a swing of 3%. Unless, of course, Mike is right and the marginals are different in which case my head might explode.

Purseybear

DavidL said:

A lot may depend where the 8 seats chosen for tomorrow are. If they were largely in London then I would expect the swing to be at least 4%, quite possibly more. If they included a couple of Scottish seats then the collapse of SLAB could bring the swing as low as 2%.

Once you go beyond that then you are in the perilous territory of sub samples but the indications seem to be that the Tories are doing quite well in the midlands and reasonably well in the north west. In the south the UKIP factor plays larger so the swing might be exaggerated.

In short, this GE is hopelessly complicated and a broad average may not tell us too much at all. But if we assume they reflect a 2% tory lead as per Lord A yesterday that would produce a swing of 3%. Unless, of course, Mike is right and the marginals are different in which case my head might explode.

Good post both on sub sample problems and also the complications.

Am I right thinking y'day's ComRes E&W shares were much better for the tories?

Purseybear

Its also v iffy to rely on one pollster in marginal seats for definite signs of trends. If Lrd A is like Angus Reid then you may as well pin a tail on a donkey. Just saying. Its fraught.

National phone polls are about as good a guide as any right now but even those have sampling probs, followed some way behind by online VI and finally marginals polling.

Purseybear

Oh it was Ashcroft's E&W? Con 40 Lab 34.

I'm certain online polling is iffy. TSE exposed the problem. I'm on the YG VI and it's for political anoraks. Not representative of a General Election voting population no matter what they try and do to the sampling.

Millsy

The fieldwork was probably a month ago so not really up to date

DavidL

Purseybear said:

Oh it was Ashcroft's E&W? Con 40 Lab 34.

I'm certain online polling is iffy. TSE exposed the problem. I'm on the YG VI and it's for political anoraks. Not representative of a General Election voting population no matter what they try and do to the sampling.

The question which will really be answered on 8th May is to what extent their house effects compensate for and offset any deficiencies in their data. I have no doubt they are all trying very hard to do that but it is tricky and even a non scientist like me knows starting with dodgy data is like starting a house with poor foundations.

But as Mike pointed out the other day phone polls are not much better. He said that they have to phone 10-12 times the number they need to get adequate responses. How indicative are that slightly weird sub group that have a landline, either don't have call identification or are still willing to answer a number like that AND then hang around to answer questions from a pollster?

My interest and enthusiasm for politics has never quite stretched to me wanting to do that.

hamiltonace

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Purseybear

Very good points DavidL below. Yep phone polling also has big probs.

As the Israeli election showed, polls can be near useless as indicators. They massively underestimated the governing party. Just saying like ;-)

Casino_Royale

Any idea what time tomorrow Ashcroft's marginals are out? Of the hyper-marginals, I'd currently expect only Stockton South to be held. But that could change.

DavidL

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

Pulpstar

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

trublue

I think this is an election where you just back the tories to win most seats, and lay Ed Miliband to be the next prime minister - and leave your positions alone. The polls will move the markets back and forth so prudently you may want to wait for the next drift to jump in and stay in. But I just don't see how the red eds can steer Labour to victory. They are both very closely aligned to the disastrous mess the last Labour government left behind before they were booted out of government.

The tories have the money, the support of the best of british business, and the most important media figures are on side. They have economic recovery to aid the message and the feel good factor of the electorate in the bank. Energy bills are down, inflation down, wages rising, and jobless count falling every month.

Factor in the reality that Old Labour has not won an election since 1974 and it all points to massive conservative gains in May. And Miliband is definitely running on an Old Labour platform attacking the rich, big business and the banks. Murdoch is most certainly going to be pulling out the stops to try and have a big influence on this election, and it's very clear he won't be siding with Miliband's lot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Conservatives even managed to secure a majority in May against current odds and expectations.

So for me I've backed:
Most Seats Conservatives (will stay with this to the end)
Lay Ed Miliband next prime minister (will stay with this to the end)
Conservative Majority (may trade this a little when the odds tumble down)

I'm very confident this will be a profitable election for me, and the right result for Britain moving forward.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Hamilton signs new Mercedes deal:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/32124091

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

Are there any good breakdowns in the polls of where the 2010 SLD's are going? Particularly outside their current seats.

Financier

Looking at the YG 2010VI, it has shown some significant trend moves in the last month.

Cons 2010 VI Month averages
Retention: 74.9-> 76.5 (Feb->Mar)
Loss to LAB: 4.5-> 4.5
Loss to LD: 1.2-> 1.5
Loss to UKIP: 17.5-> 15.4
Loss to Green: 1.3-> 1.2

LAB 2010 VI
Retention: 77.8-> 78.8
Loss to Cons: 5.3 -> 5.7
Loss to LD: 1.5-> 1.2
Loss to UKIP: 7.4-> 7.0
Loss to Green: 3.8-> 2.8

LD 2010 VI
Retention: 27.9 -> 28.5
Loss to Cons: 14.2 -> 16.1
Loss to LAB: 28.9 -> 27.7
Loss to UKIP: 11.3 -> 11.3
Loss to Green: 13.3-> 12.3

Scotland subsample VI:
SNP: 42.5 -> 41.3
LAB: 25.4 -> 27.4

Govt Approval:
-19.8 -> -15.7
(today was -10)

Charles

Indigo said:

Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”

Ouch.

Whereas if the person who sacked him wrote him a nice letter he would immediately be attacked for being insincere. You can't win them all

CarlottaVance

Bit of firming up for both parties in the YouGov 'party best to deal with'

Con lead:
NHS: -14 (+2)
Assylum/Immigration: +8 (+1)
Laura Norder: +16 (+2)
Education: -5 (-)
Tax: +8 (+2)
Unemployment: +5 (+4)
Economy: +17 (+3)
Europe: +4 (+3)
Welfare: -1 (-1)
Housing: -9 (-)

CarlottaVance

Charles said:

Indigo said:

Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”

Ouch.

Whereas if the person who sacked him wrote him a nice letter he would immediately be attacked for being insincere. You can't win them all
I note from his bio he went from school at Rugby to Edinburgh University. I wonder if Edinburgh was his first choice?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Blue, welcome to pb.com.

I predicted the blues would gain about 15 seats more than Labour in the guessing game, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were reversed. If it were, Miliband would definitely be PM.

Barnesian

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

Are there any good breakdowns in the polls of where the 2010 SLD's are going? Particularly outside their current seats.

Outside their current seats, I am assuming that 80% of the 2010 SLDs are switching to the SNP (and 32% of the 2010 Labs are switching to the SNP and Zero Cons). This gives a good fit to the Ashcroft constituency polls in Scotland.

Pulpstar

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

Are there any good breakdowns in the polls of where the 2010 SLD's are going? Particularly outside their current seats.

Big switch to the SNP I think. If you look at the crosstab of today's Yougov for instance they have 4% of the entire 2010 Lib Dem vote. That is on the high side, but I reckon around 200,000 votes will switch LD -> SNP

Cyclefree

Cameron being very punchy on the Today programme at the moment.

Edin_Rokz

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Agree, excellent post. Just one minor caveat : the longer the election campaign continues, the more fantastic the promises of the SNP are becoming. Pretty soon, I'm expecting to hear about the leader of the world running everything from his bothie in Strichen.

To attack the SNP at this stage of the election campaign would just open sanctimonious piety from their media team and strengthen the appeal of the party to the electorate. Far better to allow them to make a vision of a fantasy that becomes increasingly improbable to even their most rabid supporters

Gadfly

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

Baskerville

Just watched the PPBs:
No Miliband, plenty of DC.
Actors and 'Values' versus PM and 'Record'.
Tory: evil, Labour: good contrast versus list of promises and no mention of Labour.
'Community' versus 'Family'.

Values butter no parsnips.

chestnut

Financier said:

LD 2010 VI
Retention: 27.9 -> 28.5
Loss to Cons: 14.2 -> 16.1
Loss to LAB: 28.9 -> 27.7

The charge of the Blue Liberals.

Discernible upticks with a number of pollsters.

CarlottaVance

As an aside, the 'internal Labour polling' showing SNP voters vulnerable to returning to Labour seems unlikely - Scotland (10) continues to have the lowest level of 'Don't Knows (12 EW) and 'would not vote' (2 vs 6).......

Freggles

trublue said:

I think this is an election where you just back the tories to win most seats, and lay Ed Miliband to be the next prime minister - and leave your positions alone. The polls will move the markets back and forth so prudently you may want to wait for the next drift to jump in and stay in. But I just don't see how the red eds can steer Labour to victory. They are both very closely aligned to the disastrous mess the last Labour government left behind before they were booted out of government.

The tories have the money, the support of the best of british business, and the most important media figures are on side. They have economic recovery to aid the message and the feel good factor of the electorate in the bank. Energy bills are down, inflation down, wages rising, and jobless count falling every month.

Factor in the reality that Old Labour has not won an election since 1974 and it all points to massive conservative gains in May. And Miliband is definitely running on an Old Labour platform attacking the rich, big business and the banks. Murdoch is most certainly going to be pulling out the stops to try and have a big influence on this election, and it's very clear he won't be siding with Miliband's lot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Conservatives even managed to secure a majority in May against current odds and expectations.

So for me I've backed:
Most Seats Conservatives (will stay with this to the end)
Lay Ed Miliband next prime minister (will stay with this to the end)
Conservative Majority (may trade this a little when the odds tumble down)

I'm very confident this will be a profitable election for me, and the right result for Britain moving forward.

Are you sure you have time to be posting on here Grant?

Easterross

Good morning all. I hope Jack W's ARSE is producing more fragrant odours than my 9-year Jack Russell's !!! I have told him he needs to wait until Jack performs at 9am.

So YouGov has decided Ed didn't have more than a 24-hour boost and Joe Twyman's hyping on Sunday morning on SKY news is looking rather silly.

It also means that the scores on the doors for the SKY Poll of Polls is now Tories lead in 4, Labour lead in 1 and a Tie in 3.

Wonder whether Michael Ashcroft will choose seats which include several of Jack's dozen.

I did love yesterday's LibDem pitch. Vote for us or the hedgehog gets it!!

MikeSmithson

CarlottaVance said:

As an aside, the 'internal Labour polling' showing SNP voters vulnerable to returning to Labour seems unlikely - Scotland (10) continues to have the lowest level of 'Don't Knows (12 EW) and 'would not vote' (2 vs 6).......

Named candidate polling in Scotland can make huge difference

Easterross

Lots of excitement north of the border last night with the ComRes Scottish poll showing the Tories 3 ahead of SLAB. If that is repeated on 7th May (which sadly I doubt) I would be seriously chuffed.

Incidentally good interview with Eamonn Holmes this morning for David Cameron.

rottenborough

Freggles said:

trublue said:

I think this is an election where you just back the tories to win most seats, and lay Ed Miliband to be the next prime minister - and leave your positions alone. The polls will move the markets back and forth so prudently you may want to wait for the next drift to jump in and stay in. But I just don't see how the red eds can steer Labour to victory. They are both very closely aligned to the disastrous mess the last Labour government left behind before they were booted out of government.

The tories have the money, the support of the best of british business, and the most important media figures are on side. They have economic recovery to aid the message and the feel good factor of the electorate in the bank. Energy bills are down, inflation down, wages rising, and jobless count falling every month.

Factor in the reality that Old Labour has not won an election since 1974 and it all points to massive conservative gains in May. And Miliband is definitely running on an Old Labour platform attacking the rich, big business and the banks. Murdoch is most certainly going to be pulling out the stops to try and have a big influence on this election, and it's very clear he won't be siding with Miliband's lot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Conservatives even managed to secure a majority in May against current odds and expectations.

So for me I've backed:
Most Seats Conservatives (will stay with this to the end)
Lay Ed Miliband next prime minister (will stay with this to the end)
Conservative Majority (may trade this a little when the odds tumble down)

I'm very confident this will be a profitable election for me, and the right result for Britain moving forward.

Are you sure you have time to be posting on here Grant?

LOL.

Financier

Notice that Leanne (hasn't a clue) Wood (PC) is calling for extra £1.2 bn for Wales and more spending on public services. As the Welsh Govt has a record of losing money to 'fraudsters' and spraying money against the wall at every opportunity, surely the call should be for efficiency first before more money.

Interesting the PC ex-Leader said,""I have no issue with the decision of the Welsh people to vote for the Labour Party, because they clearly haven't been convinced that we are a better alternative." he said.

"In Scotland the SNP have convinced them, it seems to me from the polls, and therefore that's our responsibility, we have to have a better election than we've ever had before."

BBC Wales News

RobD

Gadfly said:

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

England and Wales, I think.

CarlottaVance

Everything's going so well

Labour's fees cut blasted by former access chief and Labour supporter
Martin Harris, former head of the Office of Fair Access and a Labour supporter, attacks the party's fees policy.

That right wing rag:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labours-fees-cut-blasted-former-access-chief-and-labour-supporter

MikeSmithson

YouGov England and Wales figures show 1% CON lead. That = 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE2010 which is enough for LAB to comfortably win most seats even if it loses ¾+ of its Scottish MPs

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

20 minutes

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

England and Wales, I think.

Yes, because 'rUK' would be incorrect, as NI is not polled.

tlg86

MikeSmithson said:

YouGov England and Wales figures show 1% CON lead. That = 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE2010 which is enough for LAB to comfortably win most seats even if it loses ¾+ of its Scottish MPs

Assuming the Lib Dems don't suffer a complete collapse...

Casino_Royale

MikeSmithson said:

YouGov England and Wales figures show 1% CON lead. That = 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE2010 which is enough for LAB to comfortably win most seats even if it loses ¾+ of its Scottish MPs

Ashcroft showed a 6% Tory lead in England yesterday.

Easterross

Indigo said:

Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”

Ouch.

I am very disappointed at Charles Hendry. However he can look forward to many years of tending the roses in his Ayrshire castle which he and his wife purchased last year.

Casino_Royale

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

As an aside, the 'internal Labour polling' showing SNP voters vulnerable to returning to Labour seems unlikely - Scotland (10) continues to have the lowest level of 'Don't Knows (12 EW) and 'would not vote' (2 vs 6).......

Named candidate polling in Scotland can make huge difference

It might also make a difference in England. Ashcroft doesn't do it.

JWisemann

CarlottaVance said:

Everything's going so well

Labour's fees cut blasted by former access chief and Labour supporter
Martin Harris, former head of the Office of Fair Access and a Labour supporter, attacks the party's fees policy.

That right wing rag:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labours-fees-cut-blasted-former-access-chief-and-labour-supporter

Thatll be right wing telegraph hack Tim Wigmore writing in the staunchly Blairite New Statesman?
Very objective.

Gadfly

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

England and Wales, I think.

Cheers Rob, my brain cell did eventually managed to figure this out. Unfortunately I don't have the required data to hand, nor the time to collate it. Sorry Pulpstar!

Gadfly

Easterross said:

So YouGov has decided Ed didn't have more than a 24-hour boost and Joe Twyman's hyping on Sunday morning on SKY news is looking rather silly.

I have only just got around to watching the BBC's Sunday Politics and was rather surprised about how much Andrew Neil banged on about that YouGov poll. I rather suspect that the media wanted another Cleggasm narrative, and saw this as the beginning.

This got me looking back at the Cleggasm phenomena, which I imagined was something that built up as a consequence of the three 2010 televised debates. It turns out that I'd misremembered this, and that Cleggasm was only a consequence of the first debate...

Gadfly

JackW will be now getting his ARSE into position :-)

Easterross

I wonder which pollster will be first to show the Tories scoring 37 or higher?

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

trublue

Freggles said:

Are you sure you have time to be posting on here Grant?

The reality is Old Labour can't run on a message of change because people don't want to change a winning economic formula. So they've reverted to old-style soak the rich policies and hope the British people will elect a very left wing party for the first time since 1974. They won't, but I'm sure the prices will bounce all over the place for awhile yet before the Tories win most seats and David Cameron is returned as PM.

For me it's now time to sit on my fingers and leave my positions alone. Ultimately I know I have the winning hand even if I don't eek out maximum value by trading the various bounces up and down.

Casino_Royale

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Easterross

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Very interesting Jack. You are getting close to my prediction in the PB game that Labour will secure 240 seats.

CarlottaVance

JWisemann said:

CarlottaVance said:

Everything's going so well

Labour's fees cut blasted by former access chief and Labour supporter
Martin Harris, former head of the Office of Fair Access and a Labour supporter, attacks the party's fees policy.

That right wing rag:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labours-fees-cut-blasted-former-access-chief-and-labour-supporter

Thatll be right wing telegraph hack Tim Wigmore writing in the staunchly Blairite New Statesman?
Very objective.

Martin Harris, who served as the body's director from its foundation in 2004 until 2012, told the New Statesman that "not a single extra student will go to university” because of the reduction in fees.

As was pointed out at the time - its a tax cut for wealthy graduates, paid for by poorer people who won't go to University - but heck, it made a good headline, briefly......

SquareRoot

MikeSmithson said:

YouGov England and Wales figures show 1% CON lead. That = 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE2010 which is enough for LAB to comfortably win most seats even if it loses ¾+ of its Scottish MPs

1) its an online poll
2) its only true if maintained to GE day
3) You Gov is so erratic its difficult to know what is happening. I wouldn't bet a sou based on what YOu Gov are saying.

SquareRoot

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Only a few weeks back NPEXMP was claiming a lead of 8%

JohnO

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

England and Wales, I think.

Nah...Esher and Walton, dear boy!

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, there was a good piece on Look North (local BBC news). North Yorkshire and South Yorkshire are blue and red bastions respectively, but West Yorkshire's crammed with juicy red-blue marginals.

Including Morley & Outwood.

JackW

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Minority governments are rarely stable. Look at the last year of the Callaghan and Major governments.

Broxtowe has been on the cusp for almost two years. It still remains tight but has just edged past TCTC.

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.

The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

So afaicr, of 4 Scottish PB Unionists with an actual vote 3 will be sticking with the Tories in seats they can't win, and one will be voting Tory for the first time in a seat they can't win. Not looking good for the Unionist tactical vote.

The resident SLaber who dare not speak the name of his love will of course be voting for whichever scrofulous donkey has the right coloured rosette.

NickPalmer

Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).

RobD

JohnO said:

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

Pulpstar said:

@Gadfly Can you put up a moving average of the Yougov E&W or E - might be more instructive.

E&W?

England and Wales, I think.

Nah...Esher and Walton, dear boy!

My apologies, sir. No idea they were polling that constituency so often that moving averages were possible...

NickPalmer

Times Red Box poll confirms the Milibounce:

http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/8f7d807e1f53eff5f9efbe5cb81090fb.html

CarlottaVance

Good old UKIP - can always be relied upon to add to the Gaiety of the Nation:

The Israeli government should kidnap Barack Obama and put him on trial like a Nazi war criminal, a Ukip election candidate has argued.

Jeremy Zeid, the party’s candidate for Hendon, said Israel should “do an Eichmann” on the US president.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/israel-should-kidnap-barack-obama-and-put-him-on-trial-like-a-nazi-ukip-candidate-says-10145268.html

Casino_Royale

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Minority governments are rarely stable. Look at the last year of the Callaghan and Major governments.

Broxtowe has been on the cusp for almost two years. It still remains tight but has just edged past TCTC.

It'd have an effective overall majority with Sinn Fein abstention. The Lib Dems, SNP, Green, SDLP and Labour could not combine to defeat the Tories alone either, so it should be good.

Backbenchers on the Tory right would be a problem (they always are) but by-election losses in this parliament have been minimal and I see no reason why that shouldn't be the case in the next parliament.

The main risk would be further Tory defections to UKIP.

Casino_Royale

SquareRoot said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Only a few weeks back NPEXMP was claiming a lead of 8%

To be fair to Nick, bigging up his own side is sort of his job. But that doesn't mean the rest of us have to take it seriously.

timmo

NickPalmer said:

Times Red Box poll confirms the Milibounce:

http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/8f7d807e1f53eff5f9efbe5cb81090fb.html

Dead Cat i would imagine..

JackW

NickPalmer said:

Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).

Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.

However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.

You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

So afaicr, of 4 Scottish PB Unionists with an actual vote 3 will be sticking with the Tories in seats they can't win, and one will be voting Tory for the first time in a seat they can't win. Not looking good for the Unionist tactical vote.

The resident SLaber who dare not speak the name of his love will of course be voting for whichever scrofulous donkey has the right coloured rosette.

We have a resident SLABer? Who? It has always been a mystery to me how many Scottish Tories post on here compared with what has until now been the dominant party in Scotland.

JackW

timmo said:

NickPalmer said:

Times Red Box poll confirms the Milibounce:

http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/8f7d807e1f53eff5f9efbe5cb81090fb.html

Dead Cat i would imagine..

Very harsh referencing a "Dead Cat" to Nick Palmer !!

DaemonBarber

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

snip

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

both good posts.

I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party.
As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.

Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.

I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.

So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?

Casino_Royale

timmo said:

NickPalmer said:

Times Red Box poll confirms the Milibounce:

http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/8f7d807e1f53eff5f9efbe5cb81090fb.html

Dead Cat i would imagine..

Interesting. That link shows Nick Clegg has refused to rule out backing an EU referendum but is preparing to extract a big price for it; I presume he knows it's a dealbreaker for any future Con-LD coalition.

One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.

Richard_Nabavi

Noble lord. The Good Lord is someone quite different, whose polls have zero margin of error.

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).

That's fighting talk Nick.

FWIW I think Labour will pick up seats like Broxtowe where there is a large soft Lib Dem vote waiting to be squeezed. The question is whether there will be enough such gains to set off the Scottish losses and get Labour somewhere near the most seats. I was pretty sure that was going to happen but Cameron seems up for the fight which gives the Tories hope.

Pulpstar

DaemonBarber said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.

snip

This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

both good posts.

I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party.
As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.

Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.

I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.

So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?

I'd stick to the Conservatives if I were you.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nabavi,

Our Father
Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy subsamples
And give us this day our daily poll
And forgive us our smears,
As we forgive those who smear against us
And lead us not into the single currency
For thine is the kingdom
Forever and ever
Amen

Indigo

Charles said:

Indigo said:

Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”

Ouch.

Whereas if the person who sacked him wrote him a nice letter he would immediately be attacked for being insincere. You can't win them all

Possibly he shouldn't have sacked him, since he was one of the very few ministers who was actually expert in his brief, especially to replace him with another nobody with a degree in politics.

NickPalmer

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).

Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.

However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.

You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.

Chicken! :-)

TheScreamingEagles

Re that Wales poll yesterday, there was a typo on the ITV news graphic, and the fieldwork was this month, and not two months ago

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e7erxqlrz8/ITVWalesResults_150327_March_Website.pdf

JackW

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Not good news for Nick. On those figures, a stable Con Minority with just the DUP should be possible.

Minority governments are rarely stable. Look at the last year of the Callaghan and Major governments.

Broxtowe has been on the cusp for almost two years. It still remains tight but has just edged past TCTC.

It'd have an effective overall majority with Sinn Fein abstention. The Lib Dems, SNP, Green, SDLP and Labour could not combine to defeat the Tories alone either, so it should be good.

Backbenchers on the Tory right would be a problem (they always are) but by-election losses in this parliament have been minimal and I see no reason why that shouldn't be the case in the next parliament.

The main risk would be further Tory defections to UKIP.

ARSE shows Con+ DUP would be 324 but it would only in name be an "effective overall majority" given SF abstention and I think the price of Ulster pork barrelling would be as distasteful to mainland voters as Lab/SNP would be.

The government would always be on the cusp of defeat from Con rebels and the DUP and even a handful of by-election defeats und Ukip defections would make a testing situation far worse.

peter_from_putney

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains.
Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1"
Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats).
One or other of them must be very, very wrong.
A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!

Edin_Rokz

YouGov now using aggressive advertising on Facebook, paying money for your views and opinions.

Suspect that having to do so many questionnaires (to fulfil all the contracts taken on) is proving a turnoff to people who were prepared to only do one or two a month.

Will this make their results more accurate due to the new blood, or less, as the parties get their supporters to sign up.

DavidL

DaemonBarber said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

.

both good posts.

I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party.
As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.

Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.

I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.

So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?

That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.

So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.

Carnyx

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

So afaicr, of 4 Scottish PB Unionists with an actual vote 3 will be sticking with the Tories in seats they can't win, and one will be voting Tory for the first time in a seat they can't win. Not looking good for the Unionist tactical vote.

The resident SLaber who dare not speak the name of his love will of course be voting for whichever scrofulous donkey has the right coloured rosette.

We have a resident SLABer? Who? It has always been a mystery to me how many Scottish Tories post on here compared with what has until now been the dominant party in Scotland.

I wondered that too. I can guess, but it would be unfair and probably get me banned if I were wrong.

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).

I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.

The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.

So afaicr, of 4 Scottish PB Unionists with an actual vote 3 will be sticking with the Tories in seats they can't win, and one will be voting Tory for the first time in a seat they can't win. Not looking good for the Unionist tactical vote.

The resident SLaber who dare not speak the name of his love will of course be voting for whichever scrofulous donkey has the right coloured rosette.

We have a resident SLABer? Who? It has always been a mystery to me how many Scottish Tories post on here compared with what has until now been the dominant party in Scotland.

A clue: their posts consist almost entirely of hatred of the SNP, Salmond, Sturgeon etc, the remaining fraction is vaguely & ritually anti Tory. At no point are any of their own political preferences, ideals or hopes expressed. Of which party in Scotland does that remind you?

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Noble lord. The Good Lord is someone quite different, whose polls have zero margin of error.

Well he's not much of a democrat is he?

scotslass

Gadfly

Talking about "banging on" about the YouGov poll how about the LACK of "banging on" about todays YouGov Scottish sample a matter of significance. It shows SNP 45%, Lab 25%, Tory 18% and 5-4-2 for UKIP,Libs and Greens. It has a pretty large sub sample of 177 and an average downrating (for YouGov) of 57-38.

For what it worth I think this is pretty close to the mark in Scotland right now but I do not put my faith in these sub samples, even when averaged over a period. This is because of the unexplained and large variation in the YouGov's downrating of Plaid/SNP identifiers.

However Conan Doyle wrote an entire Holmes story on the "dog that didn't bark". And that is where we are with Nick Palmer (who has clearly gone back to his canvassing), Edin , ScotP etc, etc. They clutch at any sub sample straw when it suits but a deathly non barking silence when it does not like today's or Sunday's or yesterday's Populus etc etc etc.

My view has been that last week's Salmond/Sturgeon publicity was great news for the NATS. It put them front and centre of the UK campaign where the SNP usually struggles to be noticed. If that profile continues then that totemic 45% figure is a distinct possibility. The evidence thus far tends to bear this out big style. Now over to the dogs that didn't bark!

JackW

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).

Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.

However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.

You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.

Chicken! :-)

Thank you. I've always found the chicken to be a fine animal.

Cluck cluck ....