Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”
Ouch.
I am very disappointed at Charles Hendry. However he can look forward to many years of tending the roses in his Ayrshire castle which he and his wife purchased last year.
Come off it, Charles has been a very loyal MP. He was badly treated by Cameron, but he has remained loyal to the party and to the leadership.
That speech of his is very typical of his style - he's a very good speaker, strong on self-deprecating wit. Wealden Conservatives will miss him very much. Our new candidate is Nus Ghani, who I think will be excellent, but in a completely different way.
For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.
The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.
The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.
This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.
Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).
I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.
The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.
Not looking good for the Unionist tactical vote.
Scotland showed a slightly higher (13) level of tactical voting intention than EW (11), with the SNP (55) in Scotland ahead of Con (43) and Lab (40) in EW as the 'party to stop'.
But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races.
Our Father Who Art in Heaven Hallowed be thy subsamples And give us this day our daily poll And forgive us our smears, As we forgive those who smear against us And lead us not into the single currency For thine is the kingdom Forever and ever Amen
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
If the result ends up as JackW's ARSE predicts (Which I think is too optimistic for the Tories...) then I reckon the Lib Dems would abstain from the Queen's speech whilst they sort out the leadership.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).
I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.
The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.
Are there any good breakdowns in the polls of where the 2010 SLD's are going? Particularly outside their current seats.
From looking at the Ashcroft results, the urban Lib Dems are pretty much shifting to the SNP with a small rump of unionists probably moving to Labour but being hidden by the Labour to SNP shift.
In the rural communities there's possibly some tactical Tory voting but other than that its the same picture as the urban.
Generally people have seen through the myth that the Libs are a Federalist party as they've completely failed to support the proposition. They've been revealed for the Anti-Scotland party they are, no different to the Tory or Labour core.
I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party. As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.
I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.
So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Scotland showed a slightly higher (13) level of tactical voting intention than EW (11), with the SNP (55) in Scotland ahead of Con (43) and Lab (40) in EW as the 'party to stop'.
But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races.
I kind of assume that tactical voting is already to an extent factored in to existing polls; if you're intending to vote tactically, why not give the anti-SNP coalition a boost in an entirely vicarious poll? I also guess that there may be tactical voters who just don't know who the right (i.e. SNP beating) alternative candidate is.
If the result ends up as JackW's ARSE predicts (Which I think is too optimistic for the Tories...) then I reckon the Lib Dems would abstain from the Queen's speech whilst they sort out the leadership.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
Most unlikely.
The Queens Speech would come much earlier than a LibDem membership vote even in the event of a leadership vacancy that there might not be, let alone Farron winning.
Farron is very popular in his constituency but I've heard some senior members consider him to be a legend in his own lunchtime rather than a viable leader of the party.
I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party. As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.
I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.
So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.
snip
This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.
Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).
I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.
The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.
the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Historically 'Tory' wasn't the problem - Conservative was seen as being too 'English':
Clearly there is a gap for a right of centre party in 'small c conservative' Scotland - probably one at considerable arms length from the London one - but as with Labour in Scotland, they've got to work out what they are for, as the old unionist pitch (empire, protectionism) is long gone......
Scotland showed a slightly higher (13) level of tactical voting intention than EW (11), with the SNP (55) in Scotland ahead of Con (43) and Lab (40) in EW as the 'party to stop'.
But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races.
I kind of assume that tactical voting is already to an extent factored in to existing polls; if you're intending to vote tactically, why not give the anti-SNP coalition a boost in an entirely vicarious poll? I also guess that there may be tactical voters who just don't know who the right alternative candidate is.
The Lib Dems will have those bar charts out in North and Leith...
They are only 2% behind, only the Lib Dems can stop Labour here !
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
"But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races."
Yes you are right. The bigger you are by definition the bigger target you are but once you boil down the figures to the realtively small percentage prepared to vote tactically and then deduct the balance of tactical voting the other way it becomes statictically insignificant.
The fact that the Libs are running this most is a sign of weakness. For example in Gordon they have for thirty years asked people to vote tactically against the Tories. Now that they are in bed with the Tories they are asking them to vote tactically against Salmond. A few might but they will be swamped by deserters from the other side. People who used to vote for them tactically but now want to kick them out for siding with the Tories. It is called being hoist on your own tactical petard.
I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party. As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.
I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.
So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
Some interesting comments on a quiet (and at the moment snowy, though it'll melt) morning.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
"But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races."
Yes you are right. The bigger you are by definition the bigger target you are but once you boil down the figures to the realtively small percentage prepared to vote tactically and then deduct the balance of tactical voting the other way it becomes statictically insignificant.
The fact that the Libs are running this most is a sign of weakness. For example in Gordon they have for thirty years asked people to vote tactically against the Tories. Now that they are in bed with the Tories they are asking them to vote tactically against Salmond. A few might but they will be swamped by deserters from the other side. People who used to vote for them tactically but now want to kick them out for siding with the Tories. It is called being hoist on your own tactical petard.
Which is your constituency and have you received any leaflets/been canvassed by the way ?
Scotland showed a slightly higher (13) level of tactical voting intention than EW (11), with the SNP (55) in Scotland ahead of Con (43) and Lab (40) in EW as the 'party to stop'.
But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races.
In general it seems that the closest races are going to be 3-ways given that the SNP will have come from so far behind so it is tough to know who to tactically vote for.
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
@JournoStephen: Salmond pledges not to seek SNP Westminster leadership. He's not the sort of man who would break a pledge like that. http://t.co/SO671SdqQB
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
Is there some joke I'm missing and there are people here take JackW seriously when doing his best Johnny Ball impression?
Is there some actual methodology or is it the case of humouring the less fortunate?
It comes across as the guy at work who thought of a funny joke at a christmas party once and still keeps repeating it 6 months later while co-workers feign a small murmur of laughter to avoid offence.
For Scots who do not support the SNP this election is dreaded almost as much as the referendum. The only hopes we have are as follows: a lot of people who say they will vote SNP are 18-24 who may not get out of bed, the SNP vote is probably quite regional within Scotland and the thought of having Salmond trying to wreck the union from within motivates a lot of unionist to get out and vote.
snip
This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.
Excellent post. I signed up to help the Tories yesterday but in my neck of the woods it is not much more than a frustrated gesture. At the last election the Labour leaflets in Dundee West did not mention the SNP and were all about keeping out the Tories (who, in fairness, held on to their deposit, just).
I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.
The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.
the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Historically 'Tory' wasn't the problem - Conservative was seen as being too 'English':
Clearly there is a gap for a right of centre party in 'small c conservative' Scotland - probably one at considerable arms length from the London one - but as with Labour in Scotland, they've got to work out what they are for, as the old unionist pitch (empire, protectionism) is long gone......
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
I'm told some have given considerable consideration to the theory that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
It's a line of thought that requires the utmost delicate but robust anal-ysis from my ARSE and certainly this mornings figures from my mighty organ do tend to that disappointing judgement on poor Ed.
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
FWIW After perusing all of the polls and the expectations on PB thus far I think EdM will be the next PM. I will observe the rapid disintegration of a once fine country from afar.. and shed a tear.. I will also go expat re taxes..he wont be squandering my money.
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
@JournoStephen: Salmond pledges not to seek SNP Westminster leadership. He's not the sort of man who would break a pledge like that. http://t.co/SO671SdqQB
There's a viable centre right party in Scotland, it's just part of the SNP broad tent at the moment. If Scotland ever gains independence then it will break away from the SNP the second the ink is dry.
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party. As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.
I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.
So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
Some interesting comments on a quiet (and at the moment snowy, though it'll melt) morning.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
There's a viable centre right party in Scotland, it's just part of the SNP broad tent at the moment. If Scotland ever gains independence then it will break away from the SNP the second the ink is dry.
Big SNP -> Conservative shift will take place I reckon if Scotland becomes independent. Ruth Davidson is an excellent job up there, once the unionist question is killed stone dead then they'll get more support from Tartan Tories.
I also think the Scottish Greens will get splitters from the left of the SNP.
But for now both the factions stay in the SNP big tent.
Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority
It's important to bear in mind that Nick's undoubtedly strong ground game also applied in 2010, so it's already 'in the price'.
That's true. Anyone other than Nick and I think Broxtowe would have gone by a couple of thousand.
If Broxtowe doesn't fall to Nick P then we are definitely looking at a Tory majority. In part because it almost certainly means the 2010 LDs have not switched to Labour in large numbers as expected.
@JournoStephen: Salmond pledges not to seek SNP Westminster leadership. He's not the sort of man who would break a pledge like that. http://t.co/SO671SdqQB
Seeking the leadership is one thing.
Being asked to serve the party is quite another.
Salmond and Sturgeon, the Tartan Putin and McMedvedev.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
Is there some joke I'm missing and there are people here take JackW seriously when doing his best Johnny Ball impression?
Is there some actual methodology or is it the case of humouring the less fortunate?
It comes across as the guy at work who thought of a funny joke at a christmas party once and still keeps repeating it 6 months later while co-workers feign a small murmur of laughter to avoid offence.
Echoes my thoughts. I thought in previous iterations, Jack's useful analysis was essentially a poll of polls with a bit of added tweaking.
His recent work seems to have no basis whatsoever in reality.
What is the methodology you're using here, Jack? Is it serious, or are you having a laugh?
You have Bury North, for example, down as a Tory hold. I live in Bury (admittedly in "South" not "North", alas) and you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour will take this seat back with ease. Even if Labour goes backwards, they will be gifted this seat by the LD slump and UKIP surge.
That, of course, will be the pattern across the country, as the LDs and UKIP combine forces to take seats off the Tories and hand them to Labour.
That is what will put Ed in No 10, regardless of whether there is a massacre in Scotland (which I also doubt actually). The question over the next 5 weeks is whether Ed serves as minority PM or wins a majority. With 3 more debate appearances to win folk over, it could well be the latter.
Since Broxtowe is a swing marginal seat, can we expect regular updates from Nick, our Broxtowe contributor, about Labour's progress there or would that be giving away inside information?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
I don't know. Perhaps if Nick is still on site he might advise us.
If the result ends up as JackW's ARSE predicts (Which I think is too optimistic for the Tories...) then I reckon the Lib Dems would abstain from the Queen's speech whilst they sort out the leadership.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
Farron is very popular in his constituency but I've heard some senior members consider him to be a legend in his own lunchtime rather than a viable leader of the party.
Jack - were there to be a LibDems' post GE election leadership contest and leaving aside Tim Farron's chances, who would you fancy to get the top job from the party's say 30 surviving MPs?
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
Everyone seems to be assuming there will be attack opportunities and it won't be fairly limited in a Q&A style. In those circumstances just outlining policy with conviction and a little verve will come across much better than railing against specific opponents.
If there is an opportunity, I would expect Sturgeon to focus on Cameron in the 7 way as there will be another shot at Miliband in the 5 way.
Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority
It's important to bear in mind that Nick's undoubtedly strong ground game also applied in 2010, so it's already 'in the price'.
That's true. Anyone other than Nick and I think Broxtowe would have gone by a couple of thousand.
If Broxtowe doesn't fall to Nick P then we are definitely looking at a Tory majority. In part because it almost certainly means the 2010 LDs have not switched to Labour in large numbers as expected.
I'm not sure. It might mean the Tories lose less than 10 seats overall to Labour, but with a couple of losses to UKIP and even with 15 gains from the Lib Dems it wouldn't get them much above 310 seats.
FWIW After perusing all of the polls and the expectations on PB thus far I think EdM will be the next PM. I will observe the rapid disintegration of a once fine country from afar.. and shed a tear.. I will also go expat re taxes..he wont be squandering my money.
Interesting.
Given polling movements around the weekend, specifically the firming Tory share in the mid thirties, from my perch I'm veering more towards EMWNBPM from EICIPM.
My unwritten model assumes Labour will underperform the average of polls - as they always do. So I'm even thinking of taking Lab down a % point.
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
Way to go Greens in Bristol! I am on this one.
I was at Bristol. It is not a left-wing university. I just can't see the Greens getting the votes here.
There's a viable centre right party in Scotland, it's just part of the SNP broad tent at the moment. If Scotland ever gains independence then it will break away from the SNP the second the ink is dry.
It is perhaps the greatest irony that if all those who despise the SNP had really wanted to end the SNP as a viable force in Scottish politics, all they had to do was vote Yes on September 18th.
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
Everyone seems to be assuming there will be attack opportunities and it won't be fairly limited in a Q&A style. In those circumstances just outlining policy with conviction and a little verve will come across much better than railing against specific opponents.
If there is an opportunity, I would expect Sturgeon to focus on Cameron in the 7 way as there will be another shot at Miliband in the 5 way.
Watched Sturgeon vs Carmichael last night, Sturgeon is tremendously on top of her brief knows detail but can also see the big picture, and can talk quickly and clearly.
Leanne Wood is going to get out about 5 words a minute and to be honest it is probably a bonus for Ed Miliband that Wood is present.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
Some interesting comments on a quiet (and at the moment snowy, though it'll melt) morning.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
Some people have suggested the Progressive party. Seems a bit meaningless to me. The key would be to be:
Pro business. (Probably lower CT)
Pro growth.
Focussed on improving our education system from the current wave of disasters through the Curriculum for Excellence and the devastation of our College system.
Focus on key infrastructure to make Scotland an investment opportunity.
Focus on our fairly appalling housing situation.
Absolutely not focussed on constitutional arrangements which Scottish politicians of all stripes have spent the last 20 years obsessing about but committed to the UK, albeit with a large level of devolution.
I would see such a party supporting much, if not necessarily all, of the Tory economic agenda in rUK but being much more moderate on social policy. But then that would make it very much like me so that is probably a bit selfish!
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
Everyone seems to be assuming there will be attack opportunities and it won't be fairly limited in a Q&A style. In those circumstances just outlining policy with conviction and a little verve will come across much better than railing against specific opponents.
If there is an opportunity, I would expect Sturgeon to focus on Cameron in the 7 way as there will be another shot at Miliband in the 5 way.
Watched Sturgeon vs Carmichael last night, Sturgeon is tremendously on top of her brief knows detail but can also see the big picture, and can talk quickly and clearly.
Leanne Wood is going to get out about 5 words a minute and to be honest it is probably a bonus for Ed Miliband that Wood is present.
Not if she mentions the NHS and education in Wales
Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).
Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.
However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.
You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.
Chicken! :-)
More of a case of not wanting people to realise why his ARSE has such a firm grasp of the situation.
The conversation below made me check Twitter (yuck, I must go and wash thoroughly), and it looks as though Anna Soubry's twitter account is down atm. If it is anna_soubrymp, could it be the 'mp' bit at the end that's a problem? There is an anna_soubry account, but that looks like a not-very-pleasant spoof account.
Also look at Nick Palmer's. Retweeting attacks on Soubry from 2012, and retweeting 'dr' Eoin Clarke. Nice.
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Anyone who took a long punt on Leanne Wood in the debate on thursday probably shouldn't be watching her press conference on the rolling news. Don't want any hope to be taken away so early.
Do any of your Salmond haters think that the genius Private Eye cover will do anything but good for the SNP prospects. It reinfroces my view that front and centre of the campaign is where the SNP must stay.
On that subject Scot P. Remind me. How did Salmond's decision to seek leadership in 2004 and take on the Liberals in Gordon consituency work out again?
Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).
Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.
However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.
You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.
Chicken! :-)
More of a case of not wanting people to realise why his ARSE has such a firm grasp of the situation.
Is there soothsaying water in Devizes or the Bridge of Gaur ?
Diplomacy V: Germany's out, France hanging on by her fingernails. Dear old Blighty has seven centres but is beleaguered by the Austro-Italian alliance.
Looks very much like an Austrian victory.
Pleased (as England) I didn't bugger it up like the last time, bit miffed I've not done better.
That's a tough one. Mark Lazarowicz is a real oddity, a SLAB MP with a brain. I don't think he is as loony left as he used to be. I know some Conservatives who are voting for him tactically and I would probably do the same. He is no Jim McGovern, that is for sure.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
It's a pickle for sure...
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
Political parties are always unwilling to give up the ghost even although the party has moved on. I think the SDP and a Liberal party still exist. But the Scottish Lib Dems are dying a painful death and an offer of an amalgamation into a new Unionist party is an attractive option.
Some interesting comments on a quiet (and at the moment snowy, though it'll melt) morning.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
Some people have suggested the Progressive party. Seems a bit meaningless to me. The key would be to be:
Pro business. (Probably lower CT)
Pro growth.
Focussed on improving our education system from the current wave of disasters through the Curriculum for Excellence and the devastation of our College system.
Focus on key infrastructure to make Scotland an investment opportunity.
Focus on our fairly appalling housing situation.
Absolutely not focussed on constitutional arrangements which Scottish politicians of all stripes have spent the last 20 years obsessing about but committed to the UK, albeit with a large level of devolution.
I would see such a party supporting much, if not necessarily all, of the Tory economic agenda in rUK but being much more moderate on social policy. But then that would make it very much like me so that is probably a bit selfish!
Some people have suggested the Progressive party. Seems a bit meaningless to me. The key would be to be:
Historically the Progressives were an umbrella organisation at municipal elections for the Scottish Unionist Party and the Scottish Liberals. It would seem very appropriate given the aims laid out by posters earlier in the thread.
Diplomacy V: Germany's out, France hanging on by her fingernails. Dear old Blighty has seven centres but is beleaguered by the Austro-Italian alliance.
Looks very much like an Austrian victory.
Pleased (as England) I didn't bugger it up like the last time, bit miffed I've not done better.
Yes there is a red-green surge following an unlikely LD-UKIP alliance.
Diplomacy V: Germany's out, France hanging on by her fingernails. Dear old Blighty has seven centres but is beleaguered by the Austro-Italian alliance.
Looks very much like an Austrian victory.
Pleased (as England) I didn't bugger it up like the last time, bit miffed I've not done better.
We cocked up Norway a treat between us.
Looks like it could be a draw to me, Italy needs to support you at this point to prevent an Austrian victory at any rate whilst he finishes off France.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I'm very doubtful whether any of these things have shifted many votes. All of the parties' support is becoming still more tribal than previously. There are very few voters nowadays who are undecided between Labour and the Conservatives. We are heading in the direction of values voters, as the Labour party political broadcast explicitly recognised yesterday.
Peter from Putney need not stress. If the outcome is anything like what JackW forecasts, I shall be comfortably in profit for the election.
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
To which Cameron can say 'but you have been deputy pm for 5 years.'
I see UKIP's BFFs Britain First, have lived up to their promise
Far right extremists Britain First last night launched a retaliation attack on campaigners who recently confronted Nigel Farage at his local pub.
Shouting "left-wing scum, off our streets" the Britain First activists tried to force their way into a meeting being held by the 'Beyond Ukip' group at an office block in Old Street, London.
Would JackW care to back his arse with his wallet? £20 against a Broxtowe Labour gain, bet to be registered with PtP (having been stung by Audrey who bet me £10 on a 7-point Tory lead and then left the forum...). I suggest, for added interest, that he decides before today's Ashcroft polls are published (I don't know where they are or what they say either, by the way).
Since the advent of PB I have on principle not wagered against other PBers. A decision which has lightened my wallet considerably. Accordingly Nick I must demur your kind offer.
However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.
You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.
Chicken! :-)
More of a case of not wanting people to realise why his ARSE has such a firm grasp of the situation.
Is there soothsaying water in Devizes or the Bridge of Gaur ?
If the result ends up as JackW's ARSE predicts (Which I think is too optimistic for the Tories...) then I reckon the Lib Dems would abstain from the Queen's speech whilst they sort out the leadership.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
Farron is very popular in his constituency but I've heard some senior members consider him to be a legend in his own lunchtime rather than a viable leader of the party.
Jack - were there to be a LibDems' post GE election leadership contest and leaving aside Tim Farron's chances, who would you fancy to get the top job from the party's say 30 surviving MPs?
It has the potential to be quite a diverse field.
I'd expect Norman Lamb, Simon Hughes, Ed Davey, David Laws, Lynne Featherstone, Steve Webb and Vince Cable to consider a run.
Much would depend on timing. The longer the chances of Vince diminishes. If Lynne Featherstone survives the election she would be my value tip.
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
I'm merely trying to establish if you think it is a forecast with merit or just a joke. If, as you seem to imply here, you do believe in the strength of your forecast, well done.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
Bob Sykes: " I live in Bury (admittedly in "South" not "North", alas) and you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour will take this seat back with ease."
Never one to forego an attractive betting opportunity, I checked the current best odds for Bury North which are as follows:
Labour ...... ....... 4/7 Various Conservative ..... 7/4 Betfair Sportsbook
And this was before some fairly stonking stats this morning.
Osborne has played an absolute blinder. Achieving this peak in the economy at the exact end of a FTP must involve a very large slice of luck but also an astonishing level of skill and judgement.
Updated unscientific BenM 7th May vote share predictor:
Con 36% Lab 33% Lib Dem 10% UKIP 11% Others 10%
Seats
Con 286 Lab 270 Lib Dem 27 UKIP 2 SNP 44 Plaid 3 NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
I cannot see a way for Labour to be the biggest party now that Scotland has gone, while 270 seats looks a bit toppy to me. Labour is really going to struggle in the Midlands - I think they are unlikely to make more than a handful of gains up here, one of which may be Broxtowe.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I think it comes down now to two main factors: 1. The Labour campaign. In the last 5 years the Tories have done various things that went down badly with voters. If Labour reminds people of these things, they have a chance. Trying to fight the Tories on the economy won't work. 2. Ukip. All quiet on that front of late. If Farage can whip up interest again (without creating a gaffe-fest) it'll limit the Tory surge. It looks though that they've started to focus much more locally (because of FPTP) so their national vote share could be half of what it once seemed it would be.
Nigel is going to come out all guns blazing and focus all his fire on Cameron in the 7 way I suspect. He can pincer movement Miliband with Nicola in the 5 way.
To which Cameron can say 'but you have been deputy pm for 5 years.'
Charles Hendry (Wealden) (Con): When I left office—it would be more appropriate, I think, to say that the Government left me rather than that I left the Government—I received very kind messages from the leader of the Labour party, the leader of the Scottish National party and the leader of the Liberal Democrats. I thought, “Three out of four leaders; that’s not bad going.”
Ouch.
Whereas if the person who sacked him wrote him a nice letter he would immediately be attacked for being insincere. You can't win them all
Possibly he shouldn't have sacked him, since he was one of the very few ministers who was actually expert in his brief, especially to replace him with another nobody with a degree in politics.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains. Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1" Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats). One or other of them must be very, very wrong. A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Do we know whether Ed Miliband features within Nick's leaflets?
ARSE shows Con+ DUP would be 324 but it would only in name be an "effective overall majority" given SF abstention and I think the price of Ulster pork barrelling would be as distasteful to mainland voters as Lab/SNP would be.
The government would always be on the cusp of defeat from Con rebels and the DUP and even a handful of by-election defeats und Ukip defections would make a testing situation far worse.
With those numbers he should offer the LibDems a continuation of the Coalition. They should accept, but I suspect they will refuse.
Comments
Come off it, Charles has been a very loyal MP. He was badly treated by Cameron, but he has remained loyal to the party and to the leadership.
That speech of his is very typical of his style - he's a very good speaker, strong on self-deprecating wit. Wealden Conservatives will miss him very much. Our new candidate is Nus Ghani, who I think will be excellent, but in a completely different way.
But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races.
Con 36%
Lab 33%
Lib Dem 10%
UKIP 11%
Others 10%
Seats
Con 286
Lab 270
Lib Dem 27
UKIP 2
SNP 44
Plaid 3
NI 18
Con chances of being largest party now >50%.
No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.
Farron then has a nice amount of capital to use as he can make the Gov't lose a vote of confidence at a time of his choosing. I expect that would be after the Holyrood Elections in 2016 as the Nats won't want a GE before then if it is a Conservative minority.
I'd expect to see the DUP on the opposition benches and have the loosest of arrangements to either vote for the Queen's speech, or again abstain.
From looking at the Ashcroft results, the urban Lib Dems are pretty much shifting to the SNP with a small rump of unionists probably moving to Labour but being hidden by the Labour to SNP shift.
In the rural communities there's possibly some tactical Tory voting but other than that its the same picture as the urban.
Generally people have seen through the myth that the Libs are a Federalist party as they've completely failed to support the proposition. They've been revealed for the Anti-Scotland party they are, no different to the Tory or Labour core.
Can a new right-of-centre party emerge from the Tories, or must it come from elsewhere (orange-bookers, plus some tories etc)
The Queens Speech would come much earlier than a LibDem membership vote even in the event of a leadership vacancy that there might not be, let alone Farron winning.
Farron is very popular in his constituency but I've heard some senior members consider him to be a legend in his own lunchtime rather than a viable leader of the party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unionist_Party_(Scotland)
Clearly there is a gap for a right of centre party in 'small c conservative' Scotland - probably one at considerable arms length from the London one - but as with Labour in Scotland, they've got to work out what they are for, as the old unionist pitch (empire, protectionism) is long gone......
They are only 2% behind, only the Lib Dems can stop Labour here !
Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.
I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?
(Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
Tactical Voting
"But its probably on too small a scale to make any difference, except in the closest of races."
Yes you are right. The bigger you are by definition the bigger target you are but once you boil down the figures to the realtively small percentage prepared to vote tactically and then deduct the balance of tactical voting the other way it becomes statictically insignificant.
The fact that the Libs are running this most is a sign of weakness. For example in Gordon they have for thirty years asked people to vote tactically against the Tories. Now that they are in bed with the Tories they are asking them to vote tactically against Salmond. A few might but they will be swamped by deserters from the other side. People who used to vote for them tactically but now want to kick them out for siding with the Tories. It is called being hoist on your own tactical petard.
What would one call the hypothetical new Unionist party? It can't be given the Unionist name as that is ambiguous - it can be read as Unionist sensu NI (as indeed it was for the SCUP).
Betting tip:
Do NOT under any circumstances Sell N Sturgeon.
That is all
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBaZGrfVIAAZewp.jpg
Is there some actual methodology or is it the case of humouring the less fortunate?
It comes across as the guy at work who thought of a funny joke at a christmas party once and still keeps repeating it 6 months later while co-workers feign a small murmur of laughter to avoid offence.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
It's a line of thought that requires the utmost delicate but robust anal-ysis from my ARSE and certainly this mornings figures from my mighty organ do tend to that disappointing judgement on poor Ed.
Broxtowe is in play. Nick may still make the cut but only in a losing cause for Labour.
Apparently, no sitting president has lost an election. Mmm, democratic.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32125861
See http://whatthehellhavethelibdemsdone.com/#0
I will observe the rapid disintegration of a once fine country from afar.. and shed a tear..
I will also go expat re taxes..he wont be squandering my money.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/horse-race-Bookies-nervous-Green-surge/story-26256195-detail/story.html
Greens have tried blocking development of County Cricket ground, opposed sale & development of Bristol Rovers' ground, and development of Bristol City's ground. Have also been keen on imposition of ring of parking zones but oppose Metrobus scheme.
Being asked to serve the party is quite another.
Historically approriate as well.
I also think the Scottish Greens will get splitters from the left of the SNP.
But for now both the factions stay in the SNP big tent.
His recent work seems to have no basis whatsoever in reality.
What is the methodology you're using here, Jack? Is it serious, or are you having a laugh?
You have Bury North, for example, down as a Tory hold. I live in Bury (admittedly in "South" not "North", alas) and you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour will take this seat back with ease. Even if Labour goes backwards, they will be gifted this seat by the LD slump and UKIP surge.
That, of course, will be the pattern across the country, as the LDs and UKIP combine forces to take seats off the Tories and hand them to Labour.
That is what will put Ed in No 10, regardless of whether there is a massacre in Scotland (which I also doubt actually). The question over the next 5 weeks is whether Ed serves as minority PM or wins a majority. With 3 more debate appearances to win folk over, it could well be the latter.
If there is an opportunity, I would expect Sturgeon to focus on Cameron in the 7 way as there will be another shot at Miliband in the 5 way.
Given polling movements around the weekend, specifically the firming Tory share in the mid thirties, from my perch I'm veering more towards EMWNBPM from EICIPM.
My unwritten model assumes Labour will underperform the average of polls - as they always do. So I'm even thinking of taking Lab down a % point.
Leanne Wood is going to get out about 5 words a minute and to be honest it is probably a bonus for Ed Miliband that Wood is present.
Nick reads the polls.....
http://www.broxtowelabour.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PosPol-Spring-2015.pdf
Pro business. (Probably lower CT)
Pro growth.
Focussed on improving our education system from the current wave of disasters through the Curriculum for Excellence and the devastation of our College system.
Focus on key infrastructure to make Scotland an investment opportunity.
Focus on our fairly appalling housing situation.
Absolutely not focussed on constitutional arrangements which Scottish politicians of all stripes have spent the last 20 years obsessing about but committed to the UK, albeit with a large level of devolution.
I would see such a party supporting much, if not necessarily all, of the Tory economic agenda in rUK but being much more moderate on social policy. But then that would make it very much like me so that is probably a bit selfish!
Also look at Nick Palmer's. Retweeting attacks on Soubry from 2012, and retweeting 'dr' Eoin Clarke. Nice.
Thank you for your "insight" and I'm pleased to note another brace of ARSE deniers that I'm sure come May 8th will be on their knees to kiss my ARSE as others reprobates have in the past.
The reason why most PBers remain close to my ARSE is that it has form and what form it is. A level of accuracy in predicting general elections here and across the pond since our founding father - Mike Smithson - took that fateful step away from the dizzy heights of "Winning Here" Focus leaflets to creating the greatest political blog this side of the Milky Way.
Such it up chaps.
Do any of your Salmond haters think that the genius Private Eye cover will do anything but good for the SNP prospects. It reinfroces my view that front and centre of the campaign is where the SNP must stay.
On that subject Scot P. Remind me. How did Salmond's decision to seek leadership in 2004 and take on the Liberals in Gordon consituency work out again?
Looks very much like an Austrian victory.
Pleased (as England) I didn't bugger it up like the last time, bit miffed I've not done better.
How unlike the real world!
Looks like it could be a draw to me, Italy needs to support you at this point to prevent an Austrian victory at any rate whilst he finishes off France.
Peter from Putney need not stress. If the outcome is anything like what JackW forecasts, I shall be comfortably in profit for the election.
Too much Anglo/German-Russian conflict when we should've been neutral or helpful to stave off the Austro-Italian alliance.
Mind you, easy to diagnose what went wrong after it's happened.
Far right extremists Britain First last night launched a retaliation attack on campaigners who recently confronted Nigel Farage at his local pub.
Shouting "left-wing scum, off our streets" the Britain First activists tried to force their way into a meeting being held by the 'Beyond Ukip' group at an office block in Old Street, London.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2015/03/31/britain-first-launch-retaliation-attack-in-defence-of-nigel
I'd expect Norman Lamb, Simon Hughes, Ed Davey, David Laws, Lynne Featherstone, Steve Webb and Vince Cable to consider a run.
Much would depend on timing. The longer the chances of Vince diminishes. If Lynne Featherstone survives the election she would be my value tip.
It's perhaps just the way you present it as a very stale joke long past its sell by date that is your problem. Not to mention all that "coming in 55,555 minutes" which just seems to be horribly needy.
Also highlights Cons can't win here, and LD's backing of NHS.
Still no sign of Tory leaflets or anything from UKIP.
Never one to forego an attractive betting opportunity, I checked the current best odds for Bury North which are as follows:
Labour ...... ....... 4/7 Various
Conservative ..... 7/4 Betfair Sportsbook
You pays your money and you takes your chance.
And this was before some fairly stonking stats this morning.
Osborne has played an absolute blinder. Achieving this peak in the economy at the exact end of a FTP must involve a very large slice of luck but also an astonishing level of skill and judgement.
Right now, the key issue for me now is whether the Tories scrape an overall majority. It's unlikely, but certainly possible if everything falls their way. Why would anyone who voted Tory last time not do so again this time? Immigration aside, they have delivered on just about everything they promised. Of course, they did some stuff they promised not to do - VAT rise, child benefit cut, top down NHS reorganisation - but in the great scheme of things if you are a Tory are you really going to move to UKIP or Labour over these?
Possibly, but I have no view on that.
So many Labour MP's too embarrassed or ashamed to mention their party's leader.
Unless it was a condition of accepting money from Blair?