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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So Cameron follows Miliband four times, (twice immediately afterwards) while Miliband follows Cameron twice...always at a remove or two..oh dear.....
    Farage will be hoping Q3 is on immigration so he can follow after Cam.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Pulpstar said:

    Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.

    5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.

    The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
    Well "first past the post" is a moronic description of our voting system, since there's no post.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Pulpstar said:

    Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.

    5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.

    The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
    Well "first past the post" is a moronic description of our voting system, since there's no post.
    It's a moronic voting system. Full stop.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Listened to Radio 1's politics segment yesterday. Explained what a marginal was and so forth. I'd have found the way it was presented patronising at the age of 12 or so I reckon.

    5 live were explaining what first past the post was the other day, aimed seemingly at people way too young to vote by the tone of it. Mind you they had just played a few vox pops where I think 1 in 4 people got it right.

    The average knowledge levels of the people who will actually decide this election is effing terrifying :-(
    Well "first past the post" is a moronic description of our voting system, since there's no post.
    It's a moronic voting system. Full stop.
    Good for betting on though mind, and the US Electoral college system is like FPTP on steroids :)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    @TelePolitics 21s21 seconds ago
    Nicola Sturgeon: Labour 'would have to ditch Trident for our support' http://tgr.ph/1DkoIQp

    That's that then. She knows full well that Miliband could never agree to this - make the UK defenceless because a minority of Scots wish it so? - therefore Miliband won't even get confidence and supply from the Nats, let alone Coalition, all he will get is sporadic Nat support, vote by vote, with Sturgeon constantly threatening to pull the plug.

    That government would last about 3 to 9 months. Horribly unstable

    If I were a more cunning man, I would begin to wonder if Sturgeon's desired outcome is a Tory victory, which she can righteously oppose on behalf of all oppressed Caledonians.

    Trident is insufficient to provide a deterrent to Russia. A system which has barely enough firepower to destroy Moscow Oblast is not a MAD effective nuclear deterrent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Goodluck surge in Southern Rivers narrows gap in Nigeria

    "Results just announced for the state, where a dusk-to-dawn curfew has been imposed, give incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan a huge boost with 1,487,075 votes, his rival Gen Muhammadu Buhari got 69,238 votes."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I confessed to buying a copy of Things Can Only Get Better as a cassette tape in 1997 from Labour's very good e-commerce website. The Tories had a torch logo and not much else.

    The Monarcy website was also ahead of the game. I was still logging onto my Compuserve email back then - my user name was something like 34985734989435@compuserve.com

    @SeanT The mug is every bit as glorious as the righteous indignation it has spawned. Magnificent. I particularly love how stark and bold it is... such a shame you can't buy a matching pair with "British Jobs For British Workers"!!

    But do you feel a teeny bit guilty for, in some small part, funding the Labour campaign?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CLAPS

    Mr. Nabavi,

    Our Father
    Who Art in Heaven
    Hallowed be thy subsamples
    And give us this day our daily poll
    And forgive us our smears,
    As we forgive those who smear against us
    And lead us not into the single currency
    For thine is the kingdom
    Forever and ever
    Amen

    Few lines missing there.

    Back to comfirmation class for you!

    Indeed. Most notably the line

    "But deliver us from Brussels"
    Hahah -exactly!

    And

    Thy line be spun
    Thy voters come
    In Perth as they do in Devon
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :

    Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    Suddenly a massive gulf has opened up between two of PB.com's best brains.
    Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1"
    Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats).
    One or other of them must be very, very wrong.
    A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
    I've always enjoy the musings of @Antifrank and shall be saddened to witness a temporary loss of form on his behalf.

    No doubt he'll be back stronger and wiser in the future and paying closer attention to my ARSE as the majority of PBers do.

    While antifrank does do a neat line in analysis; I do not think he has adequately allowed for the inconpetence of Labours Campaign.

    Each and every bit seems to be a new carcrash: the VAT posters, the freeze on NI that Balls knew of but allowed Miliband to flounder over at PMQs, the FT advert yesterday etc etc.

    I do wonder whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. Does your ARSE have an opinion on the subject?

    (Broxtowe is a key one of the dozen. If a Tory hold despite Nicks strong ground game we will be looking at a Con majority)
    Tories to win Broxtowe but come up short in my opinion, Tories will go well in the Midlands but the Liberals to hold enough in the South West to keep them short of majority.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    According to WiKi
    The prayer as it occurs in Matthew 6:9–13

    Our Father in heaven,
    hallowed be your name.
    Your kingdom come,
    your will be done,
    on earth, as it is in heaven.
    Give us this day our daily bread,
    and forgive us our debts,
    as we also have forgiven our debtors.

    And lead us not into temptation,
    but deliver us from evil.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    new thread
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited March 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    I have this vision of Sean being disowned by some of his leftie friends when they pop around for a cuppa and he opens the cupboard and they see his bright red racist mug sitting there.

    Half my lefty friends have basically given up on politics (and Labour), the other half would know all-too-well that I was trying to wind them up.

    But again the mug is quite something, in the flesh, as it were. Much more offensive than it looked in the ad. Who could possibly have this sitting around the house or the office, unless they actually want to make non-native Brits feel deeply uncomfortable?

    Last night I heard the most extraordinary anecdote ever - in Castle point a couple of 18-19 year olds were "Not going to vote/giving up on politics" because of the rise of UKIP there. Utterly flabbergasting.

    The left has alot of potential votes and voters but getting them to the polling booth is another matter completely.
    I guess Castle Point is pretty bleak territory if you're an 18 year old leftie. It's like being a Tory in Knowsley.
    It's a geographic and demographic thing, massive block of older voters and plenty of 18 year old lefties. Labour held it under Blair and the Tory Spink became independent soon after winning it back.

    I wasn’t at the CP count in 1997, although I’ve been to many Castle Point counts over the years. The horror and disbelief on some Tory faces were, I’m told a sight to behold! They were totally unused to losing any elections.

    Apparently Spink had managed to severely upset the Conservative Women’s Group (or whatever they were called), on Canvey Island, 40% of the constituency, and thery downed tools half way through the campaign. I don’t know how they were got back onside for 2001, though.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    FOR NPEXMP

    I don't like the cut of your jib Mr Palmer for suggesting I am a chicken. I am a poor man but I will take your £ 40 af the odds are against me as they are right now. Your 40 to my 20 and if I win you gift aid £40 to LUPUS UK the charity that supports LUPUS sufferers , the illness that my late wife bore bravely and which caused her early and untimely death.
    Anyone else who would like to donate to LUPUS UK can do so here and you can also read up on this horrible autoimmune illness that few have heard of.

    http://www.lupusuk.org.uk/

    I'll gift aid £20 to which ever cat charity you want. If you win..


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