politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals
The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going.
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has quit. not really a surprise as he and Clarkson have been friends since childhood.
Once you go beyond that then you are in the perilous territory of sub samples but the indications seem to be that the Tories are doing quite well in the midlands and reasonably well in the north west. In the south the UKIP factor plays larger so the swing might be exaggerated.
In short, this GE is hopelessly complicated and a broad average may not tell us too much at all. But if we assume they reflect a 2% tory lead as per Lord A yesterday that would produce a swing of 3%. Unless, of course, Mike is right and the marginals are different in which case my head might explode.
Am I right thinking y'day's ComRes E&W shares were much better for the tories?
National phone polls are about as good a guide as any right now but even those have sampling probs, followed some way behind by online VI and finally marginals polling.
I'm certain online polling is iffy. TSE exposed the problem. I'm on the YG VI and it's for political anoraks. Not representative of a General Election voting population no matter what they try and do to the sampling.
But as Mike pointed out the other day phone polls are not much better. He said that they have to phone 10-12 times the number they need to get adequate responses. How indicative are that slightly weird sub group that have a landline, either don't have call identification or are still willing to answer a number like that AND then hang around to answer questions from a pollster?
My interest and enthusiasm for politics has never quite stretched to me wanting to do that.
The labour campaign up here is totally inept. They are still forgetting that their main enemy is not the Tories. I cannot think of one finger they have laid on the SNP. Their main program is to raise minimum wage up to £8 an hour and ban zero hour contracts. This is absolutely nuts and would lead to my company having to fire at least 10 staff who are all keen to work.
The Lib Dems who I mostly support are dead in the water. They are invisible.
This year I will vote Tory at the GE for probably the first time in 20 years. I am not a big fan of Cameron who is too Southern but he is a decent family man. I am even less of a fan of many Tory MPs who are way too posh and arrogant. The Scottish Tory leader is an inspiration and has steadied the ship up here. Looking at the polls there is no leakage of Tory vote to the SNP. Will the Tories win many seats in Scotland. Not really, maybe 2 or 3 but at least we will put down a marker that not all Scots are selfish socialists.
As the Israeli election showed, polls can be near useless as indicators. They massively underestimated the governing party. Just saying like ;-)
I frankly do not expect much difference this time. Despite being hammered at Holyrood SLAB has just never got to grips with how to fight the SNP. They cannot get their heads around being challenged from the left. They have lived so long by defining themselves as being against something that they have forgotten what they are actually for.
The demise of the Scottish Liberal Democrats is sad in some ways but I do not think you are the only one who will end up supporting what will hopefully develop as a more distinctively Scottish Conservative and Unionist party under Ruth Davidson.
The tories have the money, the support of the best of british business, and the most important media figures are on side. They have economic recovery to aid the message and the feel good factor of the electorate in the bank. Energy bills are down, inflation down, wages rising, and jobless count falling every month.
Factor in the reality that Old Labour has not won an election since 1974 and it all points to massive conservative gains in May. And Miliband is definitely running on an Old Labour platform attacking the rich, big business and the banks. Murdoch is most certainly going to be pulling out the stops to try and have a big influence on this election, and it's very clear he won't be siding with Miliband's lot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Conservatives even managed to secure a majority in May against current odds and expectations.
So for me I've backed:
Most Seats Conservatives (will stay with this to the end)
Lay Ed Miliband next prime minister (will stay with this to the end)
Conservative Majority (may trade this a little when the odds tumble down)
I'm very confident this will be a profitable election for me, and the right result for Britain moving forward.
F1: Hamilton signs new Mercedes deal:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/32124091
Cons 2010 VI Month averages
Retention: 74.9-> 76.5 (Feb->Mar)
Loss to LAB: 4.5-> 4.5
Loss to LD: 1.2-> 1.5
Loss to UKIP: 17.5-> 15.4
Loss to Green: 1.3-> 1.2
LAB 2010 VI
Retention: 77.8-> 78.8
Loss to Cons: 5.3 -> 5.7
Loss to LD: 1.5-> 1.2
Loss to UKIP: 7.4-> 7.0
Loss to Green: 3.8-> 2.8
LD 2010 VI
Retention: 27.9 -> 28.5
Loss to Cons: 14.2 -> 16.1
Loss to LAB: 28.9 -> 27.7
Loss to UKIP: 11.3 -> 11.3
Loss to Green: 13.3-> 12.3
Scotland subsample VI:
SNP: 42.5 -> 41.3
LAB: 25.4 -> 27.4
Govt Approval:
-19.8 -> -15.7
(today was -10)
Whereas if the person who sacked him wrote him a nice letter he would immediately be attacked for being insincere. You can't win them all
Con lead:
NHS: -14 (+2)
Assylum/Immigration: +8 (+1)
Laura Norder: +16 (+2)
Education: -5 (-)
Tax: +8 (+2)
Unemployment: +5 (+4)
Economy: +17 (+3)
Europe: +4 (+3)
Welfare: -1 (-1)
Housing: -9 (-)
I note from his bio he went from school at Rugby to Edinburgh University. I wonder if Edinburgh was his first choice?
I predicted the blues would gain about 15 seats more than Labour in the guessing game, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were reversed. If it were, Miliband would definitely be PM.
To attack the SNP at this stage of the election campaign would just open sanctimonious piety from their media team and strengthen the appeal of the party to the electorate. Far better to allow them to make a vision of a fantasy that becomes increasingly improbable to even their most rabid supporters
No Miliband, plenty of DC.
Actors and 'Values' versus PM and 'Record'.
Tory: evil, Labour: good contrast versus list of promises and no mention of Labour.
'Community' versus 'Family'.
Values butter no parsnips.
Discernible upticks with a number of pollsters.
So YouGov has decided Ed didn't have more than a 24-hour boost and Joe Twyman's hyping on Sunday morning on SKY news is looking rather silly.
It also means that the scores on the doors for the SKY Poll of Polls is now Tories lead in 4, Labour lead in 1 and a Tie in 3.
Wonder whether Michael Ashcroft will choose seats which include several of Jack's dozen.
I did love yesterday's LibDem pitch. Vote for us or the hedgehog gets it!!
Incidentally good interview with Eamonn Holmes this morning for David Cameron.
Interesting the PC ex-Leader said,""I have no issue with the decision of the Welsh people to vote for the Labour Party, because they clearly haven't been convinced that we are a better alternative." he said.
"In Scotland the SNP have convinced them, it seems to me from the polls, and therefore that's our responsibility, we have to have a better election than we've ever had before."
BBC Wales News
Labour's fees cut blasted by former access chief and Labour supporter
Martin Harris, former head of the Office of Fair Access and a Labour supporter, attacks the party's fees policy.
That right wing rag:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/labours-fees-cut-blasted-former-access-chief-and-labour-supporter
20 minutes
I am very disappointed at Charles Hendry. However he can look forward to many years of tending the roses in his Ayrshire castle which he and his wife purchased last year.
Very objective.
This got me looking back at the Cleggasm phenomena, which I imagined was something that built up as a consequence of the three 2010 televised debates. It turns out that I'd misremembered this, and that Cleggasm was only a consequence of the first debate...
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th March Projection) :
Con 316 (+6) .. Lab 242 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 36 (+1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 28 Mar - Broxtowe moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
For me it's now time to sit on my fingers and leave my positions alone. Ultimately I know I have the winning hand even if I don't eek out maximum value by trading the various bounces up and down.
As was pointed out at the time - its a tax cut for wealthy graduates, paid for by poorer people who won't go to University - but heck, it made a good headline, briefly......
2) its only true if maintained to GE day
3) You Gov is so erratic its difficult to know what is happening. I wouldn't bet a sou based on what YOu Gov are saying.
Including Morley & Outwood.
Broxtowe has been on the cusp for almost two years. It still remains tight but has just edged past TCTC.
The resident SLaber who dare not speak the name of his love will of course be voting for whichever scrofulous donkey has the right coloured rosette.
http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/8f7d807e1f53eff5f9efbe5cb81090fb.html
The Israeli government should kidnap Barack Obama and put him on trial like a Nazi war criminal, a Ukip election candidate has argued.
Jeremy Zeid, the party’s candidate for Hendon, said Israel should “do an Eichmann” on the US president.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/israel-should-kidnap-barack-obama-and-put-him-on-trial-like-a-nazi-ukip-candidate-says-10145268.html
Backbenchers on the Tory right would be a problem (they always are) but by-election losses in this parliament have been minimal and I see no reason why that shouldn't be the case in the next parliament.
The main risk would be further Tory defections to UKIP.
However Nick fear not all is yet not lost .... there may be better news for you in the eve of poll Super ARSE to be published on 6th May at 10:00pm. Pencil it in your diary.
You still have the campaign to move my ARSE in your direction.
I've said for a long while now that Scotland severely lacks a viable right-of-centre party.
As much as I like and admire Ruth Davidson and the job she has been doing, the Tory party as a brand in Scotland is too tainted I think to win more than a handful of seats.
Wife and I are very much at a loss who to vote for this time around.
I may do the almost unthinkable and vote Labour. Mark Lazarowicz is our incumbent, he's well liked and respected. He's only got a majority of 1,724 (3.6%) though, I expect it to fall.
So do I vote Tory to send a message that not everybody is a loony lefty here, or vote Labour as the best effort to keep SNP out of the seat?
One of those conditions is that EU nationals living in the UK be permitted to vote in any in/out referendum. Whilst I think Cameron would concede that, his party would go ballistic. I'd expect defections to UKIP if he did give in on that.
FWIW I think Labour will pick up seats like Broxtowe where there is a large soft Lib Dem vote waiting to be squeezed. The question is whether there will be enough such gains to set off the Scottish losses and get Labour somewhere near the most seats. I was pretty sure that was going to happen but Cameron seems up for the fight which gives the Tories hope.
Our Father
Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy subsamples
And give us this day our daily poll
And forgive us our smears,
As we forgive those who smear against us
And lead us not into the single currency
For thine is the kingdom
Forever and ever
Amen
Possibly he shouldn't have sacked him, since he was one of the very few ministers who was actually expert in his brief, especially to replace him with another nobody with a degree in politics.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e7erxqlrz8/ITVWalesResults_150327_March_Website.pdf
The government would always be on the cusp of defeat from Con rebels and the DUP and even a handful of by-election defeats und Ukip defections would make a testing situation far worse.
Only yesterday, antifrank concluded that "Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1"
Yet today JackW's ARSE has the Tories hugely ahead of Labour by no less than 74 seats and within spitting distance of winning an overall majority (316 vs 242 seats).
One or other of them must be very, very wrong.
A delicious contest or what ..... PB.com at its best!
Suspect that having to do so many questionnaires (to fulfil all the contracts taken on) is proving a turnoff to people who were prepared to only do one or two a month.
Will this make their results more accurate due to the new blood, or less, as the parties get their supporters to sign up.
So far as the Scottish Tories are concerned I agree, some rebranding and differentiation from the English party is required if they are to become real players in the Scottish scene. With SLAB and the SNP playing who can get further left and the Lib Dems vanishing there is an opportunity there but not with the current brand.
Talking about "banging on" about the YouGov poll how about the LACK of "banging on" about todays YouGov Scottish sample a matter of significance. It shows SNP 45%, Lab 25%, Tory 18% and 5-4-2 for UKIP,Libs and Greens. It has a pretty large sub sample of 177 and an average downrating (for YouGov) of 57-38.
For what it worth I think this is pretty close to the mark in Scotland right now but I do not put my faith in these sub samples, even when averaged over a period. This is because of the unexplained and large variation in the YouGov's downrating of Plaid/SNP identifiers.
However Conan Doyle wrote an entire Holmes story on the "dog that didn't bark". And that is where we are with Nick Palmer (who has clearly gone back to his canvassing), Edin , ScotP etc, etc. They clutch at any sub sample straw when it suits but a deathly non barking silence when it does not like today's or Sunday's or yesterday's Populus etc etc etc.
My view has been that last week's Salmond/Sturgeon publicity was great news for the NATS. It put them front and centre of the UK campaign where the SNP usually struggles to be noticed. If that profile continues then that totemic 45% figure is a distinct possibility. The evidence thus far tends to bear this out big style. Now over to the dogs that didn't bark!
Cluck cluck ....