Chicken suits are lame. No impact any more. Labour need a new attack line because the first "debate" was relatively successful and the people who watched it enjoyed both Paxman sections. Something that would not have been possible under the 7-5-2 format.
I would expect the 2.5 million to have watched the Paxman debates to be the most politically engaged in the country. Who probably already by and large have rather entrenched views. I doubt we'll see much movement as I doubt many uncertain swing voters were engaged.
It's always surprising to wander round Scottish cities like Aberdeen and see 'The Gordon Brown Buildings' Gordon Brown Avenue Gordon Brown Passage etc etc. The man was a Colossus
The Gordon Brown Memorial Garden in Troon is named after the former Scotland and British Lions lock.
I would expect the 2.5 million to have watched the Paxman debates to be the most politically engaged in the country. Who probably already by and large have rather entrenched views. I doubt we'll see much movement as I doubt many uncertain swing voters were engaged.
2.5 million is roughly about what QT gets...QT not exactly known to be viewed by many outside sad political obsessives these days.
However, unlike QT, the "highlights" have been repeated across the news channels along with the mode music that the journos wanted to report.
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
The print media regularly set the media agenda - so their *decline* in print numbers isn't significant as the broadcasters frequently lead with their output and of course the interweb is substituting paper for digital eyeballs.
The total marketplace for news isn't declining - it's just changing shape. If circulation was relative to influence - hardly anyone would know what the Guardian was saying.
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Welcome, just waiting for the user Shergar to join, and we'll have a full house.
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
I wondered about that too. Conclusion? People will make their mind up later than ever before...
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Welcome, just waiting for the user Shergar to join, and we'll have a full house.
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Is it true that you are known as Jungly Barry in India?
Hello everyone, first post here. Does anyone think the ever-increasing decline of print media could have an impact on the Election? For instance, the Sun's circulation is down about a third since the last election, and whilst you wouldn't necessarily overplay that, that paper probably has more influence on the type of voter who wants guidance than most (see Kinnock and the lightbulb front page/"it's The Sun wot won it")
Where you been hiding! Welcome to PB
Think potentially less influential but even more visceral than ever IMO
For anyone too young to recall Mr Stonehouse, the original Reggie Perrin...
John Thomson Stonehouse (28 July 1925 – 14 April 1988) was a British Labour and Co-operative Party politician and junior minister under Harold Wilson. Stonehouse is perhaps best remembered for his unsuccessful attempt at faking his own death in 1974.
More than twenty years after his death, it was publicly revealed that he had been an agent for the communist Czechoslovak Socialist Republic military intelligence. In 1979 Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and top cabinet members learned from a Czech defector that Stonehouse had been a paid Czech spy since 1962. He had provided secrets about government plans as well as technical information about aircraft, and received about £5,000. He was already in prison for fraud and the government decided there was insufficient evidence to bring to trial, so no announcement or prosecution was made
"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."
Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!
F1: bugger. Grosjean's been demoted two places due to a pit lane infringement [I've backed him to be top 6, so obviously this reduces his prospects of achieving that].
Mind you, he should be able to get past Ericsson fairly easily, and I do think he has a decent chance of achieving it (his Q1 time, the only section entirely dry, was very competitive).
"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."
Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!
Is the at pronounced VAT. Obviously its a form of headwear in Mr Dancer territory
"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."
Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!
It's embarrassing that you don't comprehend the new realities of Scottish politics Woger
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?
Am doing very nicely thank you. I don't recall your predictions on gold and the us dollar that I have alerted people to on here. And I'm still sticking to the great global sovereign debt crisis starting in October. Which will lay to waste nearly all the crazy spending commitments you'll hear over the next 6 weeks.
Great to hear Nicola sturgeon on house of Lords abolition. Not going to happen but at least they're right on that.
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
Speaking personally I wish one of my neighbours who take shoots across our farm would hurry up and kill some of the roe deer who are working their way through some of my rather splendid rose bushes.
i wish the local farmer had a less laissez faire attitude towards fencing. his sheep ate all of my vegetables last year.
Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.
Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.
And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals
Welcome aboard, Lucan. Yes, I think we're all assuming the dead tree press will be less influential this time. Of course, lots of people read the Mail online, but it's probably fair to say they don't read it for the deep political discussions.
We had a street stand this morning, and literally a queue of people wanting to talk to me, all but one of whom had something to raise arising out of the DC/EM debate. I'm sure it's true that the audience was mostly into politics already and the impact on VI will be limited, but it's certainly caught the attention of those.
Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.
And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals
6 local snp councillors there now to labour's 5 and I see lindsay Roy didn't have the confidence to put his head on the chopping block in 40 days time
Welcome aboard, Lucan. Yes, I think we're all assuming the dead tree press will be less influential this time. Of course, lots of people read the Mail online, but it's probably fair to say they don't read it for the deep political discussions.
We had a street stand this morning, and literally a queue of people wanting to talk to me, all but one of whom had something to raise arising out of the DC/EM debate. I'm sure it's true that the audience was mostly into politics already and the impact on VI will be limited, but it's certainly caught the attention of those.
When you asked them if they had watched the debate, did any of them reply "Hell, yes" ?
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.
Daniel Hannan (@DanHannanMEP) 28/03/2015 10:46 After his Clacton piece, Parris frets that Tories aren't liked. Please, Matthew, stick to travel writing till 7 May. thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…
A few decent book reviews and he's touting himself as the next 007!!
sean thomas knox (@thomasknox) 28/03/2015 15:20 Essential qualities for Bond are that he's cruel, boozy, ruthless, sexually predatory and British. No reason a black man can't be all that
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.
You are correct, and this is something Mike pointed out back in 2010. I couldn't readily find the chart that preceded the one I used, and didn't think it mattered for this particular purpose.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.
Absolutely. National polls are all GB only - (no Northern Ireland) and all polling comparisons should be with those figures. CON 37, LAB 29.7, LD 23.6
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
Surely the final data point should be the GB result, not the UK result - as polls are GB, not UK.
You are correct, and this is something Mike pointed out back in 2010. I couldn't readily find the chart that preceded the one I used, and didn't think it mattered for this particular purpose.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
The only reason I hate Salmond, is that he was too inept to actually win the yes vote. If he had spent more time developing a decent set of answers to the financial issues rather than mincing around in his shortbread trews, he may have just squeaked it. Unfortunately he didn't.
OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.
Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.
Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.
Just driven through part of Castle Point. Not a poster to be seen, or, so far as I could see from the road anyone canvassing the shopping centre we drove through. May be just bit of the town, of course!
OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.
Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.
Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
OT Quick culinary question. I'm very fond of leeks - in every sort of dish. Would I be better off using spring onions instead in hoisin or chow mien recipes? I don't like them to become overly sweet and finding it really hard to find a balance when using onions - but leeks don't quite work either.
Spring onions might well work better - in fact when we have a stir fry we often use them rather than onions. But we don't cook them long enough to caramelise I suppose.
Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.
If you have room, then put in a few onion sets (currently available) then use the resulting onions whilst they are green during the summer. Think of these as huge spring onions and include the tops within your recipes. You can buy such half-grown onions on the continent, but I've never seen them for sale in the UK.
But you hope that every week will be bad for the SNP and there hasn't been one for a while! I think they have had a good week because they have stayed relevant to a UK election. I think that the first real poll will show that. Now what do you think?
This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.
The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Very encouraging snp results in glenrothes and west Lothian this week. Precisely the places they need to be winning in order to cause the earthquake that is coming in 40 days time.
And yet they still polled worse in Glenrothes than they did in the 2007 locals
Really? I thought they did better than 2007 - about 3% on one calculation. ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
But it is tricky to compare by elections with full elections for those multimember wards in Scottish local gmt.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
Slightly OT, the Alliance MP Naomi Long has been hinting on Twitter that she strongly prefers Miliband to Cameron. Just one MP obviously, but if Parliament is as hung as it looks like then every MP vote will count!
This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.
The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.
Haha
I think most voters in rUK are absolutely horrified by Nicola's populist policies.
That's why the prospect of the SNP having a say, is the biggest weapon the tories have at the moment.
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.
I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?
Am doing very nicely thank you. I don't recall your predictions on gold and the us dollar that I have alerted people to on here. And I'm still sticking to the great global sovereign debt crisis starting in October. Which will lay to waste nearly all the crazy spending commitments you'll hear over the next 6 weeks.
Great to hear Nicola sturgeon on house of Lords abolition. Not going to happen but at least they're right on that.
The Labour Party's position on the House of Lords, their contentment to use it as a retirement home for rejected politicians is the great disgrace of the Labour Movement. That they would reject the entire principles and ethos of their party so a few dozen party aparatchiks can benefit from this largesse should have signalled the death of their party when they first chose to accept seats in the Lords.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.
That's actually usually what happens. The election result usually reflects the poll results from a month or two before the election. They move around quite a lot during the campaign itself as people have knee-jerk reactions to the twists and turns of the media coverage, but when the day comes they settle back to their "natural" preference that they had before the hyperactive coverage started.
All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
You mean like Danny Alexander saying that the LDs might gain seats in Scotland, or Clegg telling the remaining busload of SLD faithful that they're going to beat Salmond in Gordon?
I can almost smell SLD surge...(no Mark Oaten jokes please)
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!
But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Or alternatively the SNP offer a very different type of political party more akin to those of the continental north European democracies than the tribal hatred at the heart of Westminster. A party that can actually include policy debates in their pre-election conference with at least one very contentious issue up for discussion.
The positivity is because the SNP are genuinely a better party than the nasty, corrupt Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP.
In 2010 Easter fell one day earlier than it does this year, so it is possible to compare how the polls moved back then. The chart below shows the equivalent position to where we currently are as compared to 2010, and how the two main parties began to move apart in the days leading up to Easter, presumably as the campaigning commenced...
The striking thing about that chart is that the Cleggasm hardly affected voting at all. It was purely a polling phenomenon. The votes on the day were pretty much the same as when the campaign started.
The chart is slightly erroneous in that my final ticks were UK figures, whereas the polls were GB figures. These were not massively different though, with Con GB 37 v UK 36.1, Lab GB 29.7 v UK 29, LD GB 23.6 v UK23.
This may not ever happen again, and will have changed in an hour or two, but, right this minute: Ijstweeling is THE best-selling ebook in the Netherlands.
This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated.
The good cop, bad cop routine has developed really well. Today Nicola came riding to the rescue for the rest of the UK, the only person to protect them from the Big Bad Salmond and deliver populist policy which will go down very well in the rUK.
Haha
I think most voters in rUK are absolutely horrified by Nicola's populist policies.
That's why the prospect of the SNP having a say, is the biggest weapon the tories have at the moment.
And the continual bashing out of that message is working SO well for the Tories. Their vote share is just soaring the more they come up with comedy posters attacking the wrong target.
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!
But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.
I guess you were looking up what they supported so you could attack them in a never ending stream of tweets!!1
Slightly OT, the Alliance MP Naomi Long has been hinting on Twitter that she strongly prefers Miliband to Cameron. Just one MP obviously, but if Parliament is as hung as it looks like then every MP vote will count!
Isn't she at high risk of losing her seat to the DUP?
All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
You mean like Danny Alexander saying that the LDs might gain seats in Scotland, or Clegg telling the remaining busload of SLD faithful that they're going to beat Salmond in Gordon?
I can almost smell SLD surge...(no Mark Oaten jokes please)
That picture. So sad. So pathetic. Had me in stitches. Oh poor Danny, for a brief moment I felt sorry for him. Just before the laughter had me nearly spraying coke over my keyboard.
I gave a reason for why I think it was a great week for the NATS. Salmond put them front and centre of the UK election. From their perspective that makes it a great week. I think the first real poll will bear me out. Surprisingly despite the macho male responses no-one has taken that point on!
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
Have you ever seen any SNP supporter admit that anything is ever less than perfect for the party. All weeks are always good which means you can always discount what they say.
Have you noticed that about canvassing? Everyone always seems to have had "great feedback on the doorstep, positive campaign" "Fantastic reception to message in little bigholme" "lots of enthusiastic responses tonight".
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
Which party were you canvassing for out of interest?
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
Why is it so annoying. >?? If you are an MP you know what MP's do. they attack the opponents parties. Noone in Labour will be promoting or saying anything positive about ED unless forced to... not even on twitter !!
But they can promote their policies. If I looked up a local councillor on Twitter to see what their opinions were on various local issues and all I can find was is a never ending attack on a rival party I would not be any more likely to vote for them.
I guess you were looking up what they supported so you could attack them in a never ending stream of tweets!!1
I don't have a Twitter account You can learn a lot about someone on there though.
This may not ever happen again, and will have changed in an hour or two, but, right this minute: Ijstweeling is THE best-selling ebook in the Netherlands.
Comments
I think that should read by 21 seats.
Or about an extra 1.5% swing, or an extra 3% lead!
I don't know why I bother, sometimes...
Betting Post
F1: pre-race piece up now, including two short odds tips:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-pre-race.html
However, unlike QT, the "highlights" have been repeated across the news channels along with the mode music that the journos wanted to report.
The print media regularly set the media agenda - so their *decline* in print numbers isn't significant as the broadcasters frequently lead with their output and of course the interweb is substituting paper for digital eyeballs.
The total marketplace for news isn't declining - it's just changing shape. If circulation was relative to influence - hardly anyone would know what the Guardian was saying.
Think potentially less influential but even more visceral than ever IMO
"This week has been a stunning success for the SNP. Salmond has placed the at the centre of a campaign when they usually struggle to be relevant . This weekend Nicola will get huge coverage from their massive Conference and next week appears in the big debate. Here is a small prediction for you. The first poll will show the SNP lead extending in Scotland. Just as the local by elections yesterday indicated."
Most posters would be embarrassed to post something that looked like it had come unaltered from an SNP flysheet! I'm embarrassed for you!
Mind you, he should be able to get past Ericsson fairly easily, and I do think he has a decent chance of achieving it (his Q1 time, the only section entirely dry, was very competitive).
BY 21 seats.
I can't believe you've shown your face! Aren't enough of us selling 'The Big Issue' thanks to your advice! Have you come to gloat?
Great to hear Nicola sturgeon on house of Lords abolition. Not going to happen but at least they're right on that.
1550 Navan Sir Vinnie 125-1 ew (VC)
"NYT article claims Lubitz was seeking treatment for eyesight problems."
Do you think Specsavers could be that tasteless?
http://youtu.be/ti-WcnqUwLM
We had a street stand this morning, and literally a queue of people wanting to talk to me, all but one of whom had something to raise arising out of the DC/EM debate. I'm sure it's true that the audience was mostly into politics already and the impact on VI will be limited, but it's certainly caught the attention of those.
When you asked them if they had watched the debate, did any of them reply "Hell, yes" ?
28/03/2015 10:46
After his Clacton piece, Parris frets that Tories aren't liked. Please, Matthew, stick to travel writing till 7 May. thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…
28/03/2015 15:06
David Cameron heckled by long-serving Tory over failure to curb migration tgr.ph/1I3XAEN
sean thomas knox (@thomasknox)
28/03/2015 15:20
Essential qualities for Bond are that he's cruel, boozy, ruthless, sexually predatory and British. No reason a black man can't be all that
Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
28/03/2015 15:46
Tories shouting "UKIP scum" and "racists" over a mega phone in Thurrock today #NastyParty
The issue is whether the SNP have had a good week or not . I say they have for the reasons stated. You lot say not because you fear/ hate Salmond and don't rate Nicola. You are right to fear Salmond and wrong to under rate Nicola.
Anyway the first real poll will tell us whether I am right or you are. Now you three gents should put up or ..,,,,,
With all the media focus on the Paxman debates, perhaps the middle will get squeezed further.
Couldn't begin to guess which party it would be - Labour probably slight favorites.
Shallots might be worth experimenting with - milder flavour than onions.
May be just bit of the town, of course!
http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/not-just-tories-with-dog-whistle-racism.html
Do the Tories in Thurrock seriously think anyone is impressed with shouting abuse from a bus.
Im a seasoned canvasser. You do now and then get really great nights, sometimes in unexpected areas. But you also get some really awful ones.
"voter swore at me tonight for walking on grass, put her down as a probable". "knuckles bleeding from dog grabbing leaflet from letterbox", "told to F off three times and threatened with a smack in the mouth twice this evening", "im having my tea and i wouldnt vote you F-ing lot if my arse was on fire, do one, and you better close the F-ing gate"
No never see that in a tweet...
But you hope that every week will be bad for the SNP and there hasn't been one for a while! I think they have had a good week because they have stayed relevant to a UK election. I think that the first real poll will show that. Now what do you think?
But it is tricky to compare by elections with full elections for those multimember wards in Scottish local gmt.
It is incredibly annoying seeing everyone on Twitter claiming they had an excellent result canvassing. Almost as annoying as activists spewing out a never ending stream of attacks on other parties and failing to promote their own party.
I think most voters in rUK are absolutely horrified by Nicola's populist policies.
That's why the prospect of the SNP having a say, is the biggest weapon the tories have at the moment.
My English friends tell me that if the NATS stood down south they would vote for them in a second.
1992 is one of the exceptions to that, of course.
I can almost smell SLD surge...(no Mark Oaten jokes please)
http://tinyurl.com/pe955xs
The positivity is because the SNP are genuinely a better party than the nasty, corrupt Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP.
A couple of days ago I was in a small town library, so I casually asked if they had The Ice Twins.
No, it was being borrowed. I could join the waiting list - but there were 17 people ahead of me...
Though I think (like the Scots) most English would vote for continued Union.
I gave a reason for why I think it was a great week for the NATS. Salmond put them front and centre of the UK election. From their perspective that makes it a great week. I think the first real poll will bear me out. Surprisingly despite the macho male responses no-one has taken that point on!
Positive campaigning > Negative campaigning
Well done!